First 2016 Iowa poll: Hillary 58, Biden 17, Cuomo 6

posted at 10:24 pm on November 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

C’mon, I had to post it.

According to Nate Silver, Hillary now has a 86.6392 percent chance at the nomination. (Kidding, kidding.)

The PPP poll, which was shared exclusively with POLITICO, shows Clinton taking 58 percent of the Iowa vote in a hypothetical presidential run. Vice President Joe Biden trails far behind at 17 percent, followed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 6 percent and Massachusetts Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren at 3 percent…

If Clinton doesn’t run, Biden would jump into the lead with a less-commanding 40 percent of the vote, with Cuomo rising to 14 percent and Warren up to 9 percent. In the event that neither Clinton nor Biden runs, Cuomo draws 30 percent to Warren’s 13 percent, with 46 percent of voters unsure who they’d support…

From the list of pols PPP tested, Biden and O’Malley are viewed as most likely to run for the White House in four years.

As I recall, she led Obama by something like 70-10 in the earliest days of the 2008 primary, when he was a total unknown. She wouldn’t have to worry about that next time with Biden; he’s a joke candidate, and there’s no way a pol as generic as O’Malley is going to give Hillary trouble. The only potential threat to her if she runs (which she’s said she won’t, but whatever) is Cuomo, and there’s already plenty of angst in his camp over what she might or might not do. I think he’d be doomed if he challenged her: She’s widely popular, she has all sorts of government experience, she’s a bona fide feminist icon, and there’ll be lots of sympathy for her for having lost so narrowly last time. (Plus lots of gratitude for her having been a good soldier and served as Secretary of State.) Obama would be duty bound to endorse her after what Bill Clinton did for him this year. Who’s going to pass on the chance to crown the first woman nominee in American history in order to nominate Andrew Cuomo — who, by the way, is cultivating the same sort of center-left cred that the Clintons are known for? Realistically, if she runs, she’s the nominee.

On the GOP side, hmmmm:

Rubio and Jeb Bush will obviously be frontrunners given their outreach to Latinos and the GOP’s newfound demographic angst. I doubt they’d both run, though, and if they did, I have a hard time imagining Republicans wanting to bet their new-and-improved party on a guy named “Bush.” The other serious contender is Ryan, although as a failed VP nominee he’ll be tainted somewhat by the loss (especially in Florida, which most people thought would go Republican this time). If the long-awaited fiscal crisis finally strikes, all bets are off and his profile will soar as a potential savior. But even if it doesn’t, I hope he runs just so that I can see where his Kemp-ian instincts take him. This sounded bold, and interesting:

As part of his role, Ryan had wanted to talk about poverty, traveling to inner cities and giving speeches that laid out the Republican vision for individual empowerment. But Romney advisers refused his request to do so, until mid-October, when he gave a speech on civil society in Cleveland.

As one adviser put it, “The issues that we really test well on and win on are not the war on poverty.”

Ryan did not complain publicly. But he later had reason to.

I’d like to hear more of that, and especially more of what he has in mind to help the middle class. Right now, the GOP’s looking for a magic bullet to win back some of the Latino vote, either by making a deal on immigration reform or having a Latino nominee. Both would help, but an economic agenda aimed squarely at the middle class would help more across the board, with Latinos too. Hope Ryan figures that out soon.


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???????????????????????

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:27 PM

If we lose to Hilldog in 2016, I give up. How’s the housing market in Kyoto nowadays?

Good Solid B-Plus on November 8, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Dear God make it stop

gophergirl on November 8, 2012 at 10:27 PM

That PPP poll waaaay oversampled Democrats.

BKeyser on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Cory Booker or Antonio Villaraigosa. Democrats would be stupid to not run another minority.

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Even for such a professional trolling outfit, this is a new low for Politico.

If Hillary wants to run, she’ll have to resign now, and even that won’t likely be enough with what’s coming.

HitNRun on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

First 2016 Iowa poll: Hillary 58, Biden 17, Cuomo 6

Hillary has about as much of a chance as Obama does of being impeached or going to prison for election fraud.

SWalker on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

…ummmm, HELL NO!

kscheuller on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

NNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

d1carter on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Hill will win easily.

mrscullen on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Ryan couldnt win Wisconsin

zing!

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Hillary!? The only person to take “personal responsibility” for Benghazi?

GarandFan on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

PPP did a GOP Iowa poll too

http://davidwissing.com/?p=19679

Mike Huckabee 15%
Marco Rubio 12%
Paul Ryan 12%
Chris Christie 12%
Jeb Bush 11%
Rick Santorum 10%
Condoleezza Rice 9%
Rand Paul 5%
Sarah Palin 4%

Can we nuke Iowa?

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Bengal…..?

This woman is toast..

War on Woman..you say…

War on Traitors!!!!!

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:31 PM

On second thought, the person to ask about Hillary! is Slick Willie. How old will he be in 2016?

GarandFan on November 8, 2012 at 10:31 PM

She’s widely popular, she has all sorts of government experience, she’s a bona fide feminist icon,

We came , we saw , we transformed Libya into a feminist al-qaeda paradise. Egypt too, The muslim motherhood.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 10:32 PM

AP…
How’s you can?

Just askin’

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Cat..

that is…

This isn’t good…

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Obama would be duty bound to endorse her after what Bill Clinton did for him this year.

I truly doubt Obama’s endorsement in four years will mean anything. In fact in four years I bet Dems will be treating Obama like Republicans treated Bush in 2008….like the plague.

terryannonline on November 8, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Can we nuke Iowa?

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Huckabee / Akin? rape rape.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I think you are forgetting 2014…

Seven Percent Solution on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Right now, the GOP’s looking for magic bullet on winning back some of the Latino vote, either by making a deal on immigration reform or having a Latino nominee.

The GOP cannot embrace immigration reform. Not anymore with when Latinos are going to be 80% against the GOP.

If they had George W. Bush numbers, 44%, it could make sense to lock them down. In the aftermath of Arizona, its not going to happen.

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

That PPP poll waaaay oversampled Democrats.
BKeyser on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Thread winner. You can go ahead and roll this thread on up now and call it a night.

Boomer_Sooner on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Bengal…..?

Benghazi..

I will never trust auto spell check again….

For now.

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Sounds about right to me. We can’t stop the left. They have the schools, universities, the text book makers, newspapers, the networks, the news media, Hollywood, the music industry, the unions, Google, Facebook, blacks, hispanics, Jews, young voters, women voters, the UN, Europe… I could go on. The point is, whoever they want to put up, that’s who will win. We don’t have a chance. The war is over, we lost.

Aodhan on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Rubio has got this

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:34 PM

no way…Benghazi!!

workingclass artist on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Why even try? Let her run uncontested. Just for fun. I want to see how all the liberals will rant against republicans when there isn’t even one running. All the liberals I know are still raving and posting republican hate propaganda. It’s not enough for them. They are infuriated that the house is in Republican hands. It is insane.

djl130 on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

God the next four years are going to suck.

donkichi on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Cory Booker or Antonio Villaraigosa. Democrats would be stupid to not run another minority.

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Well, women are the ‘non-minority’ minority.

You thought we heard a lot of “War on Women” stuff this year? Wait until they actually run Warren or Hilldog.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Clinton is old as a sack though. Have you seen her lately? yikes.

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

AP, NO! You didn’t have to, but you did…

Not just no, BUT HELL NO!!

Scrumpy on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

I am going to step out and get a breathe of fresh air..

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Jesus why? Why? No more of this campaigning…it’s FOUR YEARS AWAY

ernesto on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

I need to see the cross tabs and some heavy analysis by Ed or AP before I can decide the validity of this poll///

JPeterman on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Polls 30 days out meant nothing. Now we are going to debate polls 4 years out?? Just damn.

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

C’mon, I had to post it.

No, you didn’t, AP. You’re a sadist.

If you insist on torturing your readers, at least find a better picture of srHill Hag and break it gently.

Cody1991 on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Rick Santorum is on Greta pitching his candidacy for 2016. He’s going over his resume, his accomplishments, saying “government has a role”, and is now pitching immigration reform.

Punchenko on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Ok, I am done for the night…

God Bless and have a good night ya’all!!

Scrumpy on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

You thought we heard a lot of “War on Women” stuff this year? Wait until they actually run Warren or Hilldog.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 8, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Would Hillary or Warren really turnout the African Americans and Latinos in large numbers?

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

And I cant believe Allah is treating Ryan as a serious contender. He is a house member who didnt give us his home state.

Talk about an invisible man as well

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

I am going to step out and get a breathe of fresh air..

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Step out and get some fresh air, hell the thought of the Hildabeast as POTUS after Obummer makes me serious think about pulling the car in the garage and leaving the engine on.

SWalker on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Jesus why? Why? No more of this campaigning…it’s FOUR YEARS AWAY

ernesto on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Do you think that nothing happens within those fore years?

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Can someone unskew this for me please?

lester on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Night
Scrumpy!

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:39 PM

God Bless and have a good night ya’all!!

Scrumpy on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Take care.

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Can someone unskew this for me please?

lester on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

It’s not possible..

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Rick Santorum is on Greta pitching his candidacy for 2016. He’s going over his resume, his accomplishments, saying “government has a role”, and is now pitching immigration reform.

Punchenko on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

At one point I supported Santorum, but that was only in desperation to stop Romney. No to Santorum. He’d lose red states like Akin.

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Can someone unskew this for me please?

lester on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Sure let me try. The election is four years away….we have no idea what will happen :-)

Unskewed!

terryannonline on November 8, 2012 at 10:40 PM

unreal
f*ck these polls im sick of the word POLL

blatantblue on November 8, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Umm.. and Rubio did an awesome job in FL for Romney. At least Ryan has actual accomplishments. Rubio is Latino and gives the same darn speech. But keep singing about the awesomeness that is Marco Rubio. Flapjackmama. Please keep on. Much prefer the guy who will save us from the fiscal mess to the Latino Obama. However, it is a fate accompli that it it probably going to be Rubio. I’m assuming that the big donors in the smoke filled room decided this on Nov. 6th so that Rubio can spend the next four years practicing his nomination speech so that he remembers that he’s for less gov’t.

As a sidenote, why is Jeb Bush even part of the conversation… His name is Jeb Bush. We apparently have a death wish if he’s the nominee.

Illinidiva on November 8, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Jesus why? Why? No more of this campaigning…it’s FOUR YEARS AWAY

ernesto on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

This kind of attitude gave us Romney.

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:41 PM

I’m just praying that the 2016 GOP primary isn’t the freak show we had in 2012.

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:41 PM

who will help the country Obama/Biden or Romney/Ryan.

Just typing that makes me ill. How could you even entertain those bozos?

tomas on November 8, 2012 at 10:42 PM

NEWT/RUBIO 2012! D’oh!

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:42 PM

I knew this was coming.
Yuck. That’s all I can say. Yuck.

ORconservative on November 8, 2012 at 10:42 PM

Jesus why? Why? No more of this campaigning…it’s FOUR YEARS AWAY

ernesto on November 8, 2012 at 10:36 PM

This kind of attitude gave us Romney.

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:41 PM

ernesto wants to be pampered…

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Can someone unskew this for me please?

lester on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Sure. Here’s the sample:

47% assorted moochers, looters and parasites
22% Balkanized minorities
10% Guilty white voters who are gosh-darn proud of themselves for voting for that articulate black man
13% Over-educated post-grad students who think the 2016 ticket should be Judith Butler and Noam Chomsky
8% Corpses

Good Solid B-Plus on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Step out and get some fresh air, hell the thought of the Hildabeast as POTUS after Obummer makes me serious think about pulling the car in the garage and leaving the engine on.

SWalker on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

May I ride shotgun?

JPeterman on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

After Christie jumps ship he’ll eat the other candidates, leaving him unopposed.

Scotty J on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

poor Joe

he really thinks he’s got a shot

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Umm.. and Rubio did an awesome job in FL for Romney. At least Ryan has actual accomplishments. Rubio is Latino and gives the same darn speech. But keep singing about the awesomeness that is Marco Rubio.

Rubio wasnt on the ticket smart one. And Ryan is invisible on the campaign trail. Sorry, but you need to be flashy and charismatic these days. You not realizing this says a lot. And Ryan has actual accomplishments? He spits out ideas that were never passed. Yet he did vote for TARP, GM Bailout, Bush medicare…

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

SWalker on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

:)

Thanks friend…

I had to flush…..

Something about hearing Democrats..

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:45 PM

After Christie jumps ship he’ll eat the other candidates, leaving him unopposed.

Scotty J on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Oh my! Talk about eating our own!

terryannonline on November 8, 2012 at 10:46 PM

Speaking of HilRod……………………………..

Hillary Clinton honors slain US Ambassador to Libya – @AP

35 mins ago from http://www.cbsnews.com by editor
==============================================

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57547481/clinton-honors-slain-envoy-to-libya/

canopfor on November 8, 2012 at 10:46 PM

poor Joe

he really thinks he’s got a shot

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

I gotta admit it wouldn’t mind see Joe run again…..it would be pure comedy.

terryannonline on November 8, 2012 at 10:47 PM

I’ll save the GOP some time

Santorum beats out all challengers, with SoCons mistaking his radical social conservatism for actual conservatism…

Hillary wins

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Give it up for CC2016.org (Clinton/Christie 2016)

To BIG to fail./

Note: CC2016.com was already taken by…Conservation Corps 2016

tonotisto on November 8, 2012 at 10:48 PM

Can we let another state go first this time? Please? One without a fair.

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:48 PM

After Christie jumps ship he’ll eat the other candidates, leaving him unopposed.

Scotty J on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Unprecedented. Could work.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 10:49 PM

Mark1971 on November 8, 2012 at 10:30 PM

I love how santorum is back down to 6th place. ha

Flapjackmaka on November 8, 2012 at 10:49 PM

no fairs and no fried Butter on a Stick

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Libs..

Hillary is done..

The attack by Al Queda on our Consulate is the the eye opener..
The truth is more Damning….

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Can someone unskew this for me please?

lester on November 8, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Clever. :)

How long are you going to be on this gloating tour?

Axe on November 8, 2012 at 10:52 PM

actually, Tina Korbe looked hot eating Butter on a Stick

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Speaking of HilRod……………………………..

Hillary Clinton honors slain US Ambassador to Libya – @AP

35 mins ago from http://www.cbsnews.com by editor
==============================================

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57547481/clinton-honors-slain-envoy-to-libya/

canopfor on November 8, 2012 at 10:46 PM

She gets lot of mileage from that corpseman.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 10:52 PM

C’mon, I had to post it.

No you didn’t…

Seven Percent Solution on November 8, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Cat..

that is…

This isn’t good…

Electrongod on November 8, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Electrongod:Ugh,you had to mention a cat(s):)
=============================================

NBCWashington ‏@nbcwashington

Hank the Cat steals more than 6,000 votes from Kaine, Allen in Virginia senate race http://bit.ly/TOxRtg

https://twitter.com/nbcwashington

canopfor on November 8, 2012 at 10:53 PM

ARE YOU F*CKIN SH*TIN ME!?!?!?

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 10:54 PM

AP, if I knew where you lived I’d come over there an’ throttle ya.

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 10:56 PM

canopfor on November 8, 2012 at 10:46 PM

She gets lot of mileage from that corpseman.

the_nile on November 8, 2012 at 10:52 PM

the_nile:

Yup,and Team Blue,wants this story(Benghazi-Gate),to disappear,
like yesterday!

canopfor on November 8, 2012 at 10:56 PM

poor Joe

he really thinks he’s got a shot

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 10:44 PM

He’s bat $hit crazy and one heartbeat away from the presidency.

What the heck. Having Joe in charge of things wouldn’t be worse, and it might be more amusing if anyone can muster the energy to laugh.

Cody1991 on November 8, 2012 at 10:56 PM

I do wonder, though, how far Hilary is ahead of the GOP candidate.

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 10:57 PM

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 10:57 PM

That question has been foremost in my mind as well.

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM

I think Iowans have overlooked the coronation of King Obama.

fogw on November 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM

/

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM

They put out photos of what Obama could look like in 2016 and they should put out a 69 year old Hillary image would look like. That will move the vote away from the start.

And by 2016 the Democratic brand will be so damaged that not even the media will be able to drag Hillary across the line.

tjexcite on November 8, 2012 at 11:00 PM

Yea…I think we need a break on thinking about whose running for president next. We’ve been going through this non-stop since 2007

BrianVII on November 8, 2012 at 11:00 PM

I for one, and looking FORWARD to our Eyenorish overloads.

flackcatcher on November 8, 2012 at 11:01 PM

How much would it cost us, under Obamacare, to lobotomize EVERYONE in Iowa?
.
.
Also, will you take a check?

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:02 PM

KCB on November 8, 2012 at 10:59 PM

“This just in, Hillary(D) up 4pts. against X(R).”

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:03 PM

I’ll save the GOP some time

they nominate someone, Hillary wins, and the entire country revels in our acceptance of lady parts

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 11:03 PM

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:29 PM

I think you hit on the single most important affecting the Democrats and their supposed ‘emerging majority’: will the Obama coalition turnout for someone other than Obama? 2010 proved that they won’t. (Thus my own optimism for 2014). If the Dems nominate an Old White Lady and a White Dude for VP will the great Obama masses show up? Maybe, but not a sure thing, IMO.

Robert_Paulson on November 8, 2012 at 11:04 PM

How much would it cost us, under Obamacare, to lobotomize EVERYONE in Iowa?

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Can this surgery be performed twice? I thought that happened in 2008.

Cody1991 on November 8, 2012 at 11:04 PM

One final thing–then I’ll stop posting like Tesla.

Is it really that boring in Iowa?!

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Punchenko on November 8, 2012 at 10:37 PM

.
At one point I supported Santorum, but that was only in desperation to stop Romney. No to Santorum. He’d lose red states like Akin.

El_Terrible on November 8, 2012 at 10:40 PM

.
What kind of states were the ones he won, during the primary?

Or got second place in?

listens2glenn on November 8, 2012 at 11:05 PM

Cody1991 on November 8, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Touche.

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:05 PM

If the Dems nominate an Old White Lady and a White Dude for VP will the great Obama masses show up? Maybe, but not a sure thing, IMO.

Robert_Paulson on November 8, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Dem’s GOTV will have quite the time dragging Uncle Pookie off the couch.

RedCrow on November 8, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Vote Hillary!

She will bring Benghazi, I mean the bacon, home to America!

VorDaj on November 8, 2012 at 11:06 PM

the oversampling of Dems has become the accurate sampling of parasites

Slade73 on November 8, 2012 at 11:07 PM

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