RCP poll averages predicted 49 of 50 states

posted at 3:22 pm on November 7, 2012 by Allahpundit

One last 2012 poll post for old times’ sake before we start in bright and early tomorrow morning with 2016 polls. (Joking, joking.) There was one basic meta-question in the sturm and drang over Nate Silver and statistical models: Were the state polls showing Obama sweeping the midwest correct or were the national polls, some of which had Romney ahead even at the very end, right in predicting a photo finish? Now we know. Sean Trende thoughtfully weighed the case for both sides a few days ago. My assumption, like many other people’s, was that O couldn’t duplicate the turnout he generated in 2008. All the polls showing, say, a D+6 advantage simply had to be wrong, as that was way too close to the D+7 he grabbed back then. There was too much stacked against him this time — unemployment near eight percent, liberal disillusionment with the pace of “progress,” a fervently negative campaign that demolished his Hopenchange brand, etc etc. Plus, Republicans couldn’t wait to get to the polls to beat him, and had even come to genuinely like Romney as he campaigned down the stretch. Logically, I thought, the best O could do was maybe D+3 and probably it’d be closer than that. Actual result, per the national exit poll: D+6. That’s why last night is so alarming. 2008 could be dismissed as a fluke but last night smells more like realignment. He essentially duplicated the results of his first “experiment,” which, in science, means we have validation of a hypothesis. Hypothesis: If Democrats can muster that sort of advantage even in the worst of times (albeit with heavy GOTV help from Obama’s superb organization), then the GOP’s starting each election in the near term in a hole.

So some of the national polls like Gallup and Rasmussen were wrong and the state polls were right. See for yourself by checking the final averages of the toss-up states on RCP’s election page. They accurately predicted the winner everywhere except Florida, and in fact frequently underestimated Obama’s final margin. (In other words, the polls were slightly skewed for, er, Romney.) If the state polls were right then the models based on state polls were also bound to be right, which meant that Silver’s probability model was right for all 50 states — as was the model developed by Stanford prof Simon Jackman for HuffPo, as was the Votomatic model developed by Drew Linzer. Jackman’s model, in fact, nailed the margin in Florida, and Linzer predicted flat out the morning of the election that Obama would net 332 electoral votes, which looks to be spot on. Impressive stuff, but not surprising given their baseline: They were modeling based on the state polls, so if the state polls looked good for O, then so would the model. For that reason, I never understood the ferocious antagonism online lately to Silver. He wasn’t the one churning out the data showing an Obama win, the state pollsters were. Says Linzer:

I’ll add, though, that on the eve of the election, averaging the polls, or running them through any sort of sensible model, isn’t all that hard. We are all using the same data (more or less) and so it doesn’t surprise me that we’re all reaching similar conclusions. The real challenge is producing meaningful and accurate forecasts early in the campaign. My model is designed to be robust to short-term fluctuations in the polls, and converge in a stable and gradual manner to the final, Election Day estimates. It appears that in this regard, the model has worked as intended.

But from a broader perspective, my model has been predicting that Obama will win 332 electoral votes – give or take – since June. If all of us are correct today, the next question to ask is when each model arrived at the ultimate outcome.

Note that last paragraph. If you thought there was poll angst this time, imagine what it’ll look like in two years when Linzer or Jackman or Silver starts showing a victory for one side or the other in the midterms four months out from election day and that side’s supporters have to confront this track record. If you’re a baseball fan and think the sport’s too top heavy with sabermetric analysis, wait until political junkies fully absorb the Jackman/Silver/Linzer record this time. You’ll need a statistics degree to follow elections soon.

Oh, and because I know you’re curious: The single most accurate pollster of the cycle, according to Fordham University’s polisci department, was PPP, a.k.a. Kos’s pollster. Out of 28 polling orgs, Rasmussen and Gallup tied for 24th.

Update: Good point from the comments about the saber-metrizing of politics:

If Silver or Tom Tango or Bill James or Keith Law projects a 3.2 fWAR, .240/25/102 slash line, .810 OPS and 130 OPS+ for, say, Ryan Braun, that’s not going to make his real life numbers suddenly decline. He’s not going to despair over getting bad projections from Fangraphs.

But if Linzer is accurate this year 4 months out, and he calls it for Cuomo/Hillary/Warren/Booker in June of 2016, it could have a depressing effect on GOP GOTV efforts. The lines of causality go both ways.


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Obama would not have had D+6 if Republicans came out. I heard Evangelicals was down 7% in Virginia.

I don’t get it. Something happened. Something very wrong. I have a hard time believing that Obama loses 6 million voters and Republicans only gain 2 million and lose. Either it was stolen, or there are Republicans staying home. Understand that 2 million. Across 50 states, that is NOT a lot of people. That is a measly 40,000 people per state. Sure, in smaller states, that’s a big deal. But with FL, VA and OH? I don’t get it. I just don’t get it.

MrX on November 7, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Your mistake was hubris.

Believing only republicans cared about this election..

What if I told you, as much as Obama was hated on the right, people also went to the polls to make sure Mitt Romney didn’t become president?

Your problem was you were taking into account Obama’s negatives without acknowledging Mitt had more than a few himself.

triple on November 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM

It has to be cheating.

peakspike on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

What a pathetic whine. Always an excuse. Never in touch with reality.

independentvoice on November 7, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Several million, Evangelical voters stayed home, (yes the Mormon issue)This may sound controversial, but been hearing a lot of it on twitter especially from big names. Like David Limbaugh.

I don’t know if it’s true, but someone needs to look in to it.

Bottom line is turnout was down 17% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

For simple proof just go check out the rural areas in VA & OH and see what Bush did there in 2004 compared to McCain & Romney

I’m a very open minded person, But to say that the GOP should abandon social issues is political suicide, We lost the last 2 elections because we ignored social issues, and value voters feel like the party doesn’t care for them

I know we will always win the south, But in VA & OH the 100-150K Evangelical is how we always win those states

Of course idiots like Akin make us suffer, but from Akin you can take the lesson that they feel the GOP has left them behind, and we need to win back their trust

OrthodoxJew on November 7, 2012 at 4:54 PM

FIFY. If Romney got as many votes as McShame did in 2008, in OH, FL, VA, it would be president elect Romney.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:46 PM

It is simply incredible… Shocking beyond belief… I mean no one expected that Romney would get less vote than McCain nationally or the battleground states… That is the reason Elections Experts like Karl Rove and Michael Barone got it so wrong because in their analysis they would not even assumed for a second that Romney would get less vote than McCain the battleground states and nationally…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I would like to offer my DEEPEST Congratulations to ALlahpundit and Ed Morrisey on their engineering of Obama’s SECOND PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VICTORY.

NO One in America has done MORE to Support Obama by Inciting For The Enemy and Poisoning The Ranks of The Conservatives than Allahpundit.

He stands ALONE in his contributions TO HELPING Obama on this Blog. No one else even comes close!

However – if someone DID “come close” – it would Ed Morrissey. His penchant making sure that This Blog “gives the benefit of doubt” to the Enemies of America is second to NO ONE!!

DEEPEST CONGRATULATIONS TO BOTH ALLAHPUNDIT AND ED!!!

You have BOTH been WILDLY successful – as you can SEE by the RESULTS of your EFFORTS!!

williamg on November 7, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Obama would not have had D+6 if Republicans came out. I heard Evangelicals was down 7% in Virginia.

I don’t get it. Something happened. Something very wrong. I have a hard time believing that Obama loses 6 million voters and Republicans only gain 2 million and lose. Either it was stolen, or there are Republicans staying home. Understand that 2 million. Across 50 states, that is NOT a lot of people. That is a measly 40,000 people per state. Sure, in smaller states, that’s a big deal. But with FL, VA and OH? I don’t get it. I just don’t get it.

MrX on November 7, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Anyone have some polling data about the % of voters who say they won’t vote for a Mormon?

Anti-Control on November 7, 2012 at 4:56 PM

As I have said for years now, one of the reasons O’bamna won the 2008 election was because he set an alltime American record by getting 70% of the high school dropout vote (the previous champ was Algore with 61% in 2000). I also said that for him to have a chance in 2012, he would have to get some of the remaining 30% of high school dropouts to vote for him.

He did.

Haven’t checked the MSNBC exit polling yet, but according to CNN, Dear Leader can now proudly claim another new alltime high school dropout vote record.

He got 82% of them in Pennsylvania.

And 80% in California.

And 73% in Nevada.

And 67% in Ohio.

And 66% in Florida.

I’m sure Chump Threads is thrilled by these latest historical firsts!

Del Dolemonte on November 7, 2012 at 4:57 PM

One thing is for sure – the Democrats proved they can win by running a completely negative, cynical, base turnout election, that does not address any of the days important issues:
1. Demonization and character assassination of your opponent.
2. Give away free stuff to different groups.
3. Cynically play the race card at every opportunity.
4. Demagogue issues that apply to different groups: immigration, welfare, War on Women, etc.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

That’s not how they won. Obama could probably have sat home and got nearly as many votes. Here is a little piece of nasty truth:

Unfortunately, the new post-America has reached the point where who is the better economic manager may no longer matter.

Take Nevada. While ostensibly a swing state, it is all but guaranteed to go Democratic despite having the worst economy in the country. The housing crisis, fueled by mass immigration and Bush’s mortgage Hispandering, has devastated the state. Unemployment is well over 11 percent, and has actually increased considerably from when Barack Obama took office.

But the state’s high concentration of Hispanics combined with blacks means that there is a large percentage of the population simply beyond economic appeals. In fact, Hispanic voters in Nevada may even flip a Senate seat to the Democrats, despite the fact that their candidate is under investigation for corruption and wasn’t even expected to be competitive.

A story from Illinois’s 2nd Congressional District illustrates what is happening to the country as a whole. Incumbent Jesse Jackson Jr. has been on medical leave since June for a variety of “health issues.” This hasn’t stopped him from hitting the bars with his friends, although he hasn’t held a single campaign event or public appearance. His wife is sticking by his side, despite his past adultery (with a blonde bikini model) which is now public knowledge. This might have something to do with the several thousand dollars a month his campaign pays her “consulting firm.” Jackson is also the subject of an ongoing federal probe into his questionable finances.

But there is absolutely no chance that Republicans can make this race even close. Jackson has an absolute majority in the polls in a three-way race, despite doing no campaigning.

This might have something to do with the fact that Republican candidate Brian Woodworth, a white lawyer trying to represent a majority black, urban county, wants to win voters by telling them “Government needs to get off the backs of businesses.” Even more exciting, he is challenging not just the laws of political reality, but mathematics itself by claiming, “I am not looking to protect the “1%”; I will be working to provide more opportunity for every American to become part of the “1%.”

This economism doesn’t seem to be doing much good, even though unemployment in both Illinois and Chicago is worse than in the country as a whole.

Black and Hispanic identity politics make increasingly areas of the country essentially immune to elections.

You figure out how to cut to the center of that Gordian knot and I’ll vote you king of the universe.

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Raquel,

Re-read my post. I said 2010. Someone was trying to argue 2010 as a reason demographics couldn’t explain 2012.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:57 PM

HOW DO I CLICK OFF THESE TOWNHALL ADS?!

YYZ on November 7, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Thanks, AP. I have personally appreciated your coverage this whole year. Have even mentioned it to my husband several times. You have been informative, humorous and right on time. This has been a extremely stressful year for all of us, for many reasons, with the never ending, all important election layered all over the top of it. So, being able to come here regularly and get pithy, timely and helpful information is such a nice treat, in a often stressful day. Thank you for that! Onward! :)

Minorcan Maven on November 7, 2012 at 4:58 PM

williamg on November 7, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Pffft….HA readership is squat to Dade County voters alone. If HA was as that powerful you would be typing on a MicroAllahEd keyboard.

Limerick on November 7, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Norwegian … I told you that poll deconstruction would skewer you and it so obviously did … I also told you ,Rasmussen and the right wing were wrong about who was going to win Colorado … I warned you Rasmussen was wrong about tea party hack Ken Buck beating Senator Michael Bennett two years ago …you mocked me and doubled down … I told you it was about math and trends … not poll deconstruction… if you had listened to Nate Silver and me you could have saved yourself from your big head blues … so deal with it… President Obama and Vice President Biden have won Colorado and the United States election … I hear you are leaving … Hot Air see ya

U2denver on November 7, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Again, like four years ago, I am hoping the next field is far better than this one was.

firegnome on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

All evidence to the contrary, of course.

There’s no reason to hope this. There’s every reason to suspect that the candidate the GOP will foist upon people will be even *more* ‘moderate’ and left-leaning – and maybe that’s required if the electorate has so shifted, etc.

But then it really ceases to be an alternative to the Dems – unless, perhaps, they continue to lurch hard left such that our choices are liberal (GOP) versus full-on socialist (DNC), but then = we’re still back to the conversation we’re having now… if that’s what’s required by the electorate in order to remain viable politically for the GOP, well… the country is well and truly f00ked, and any semblance to what we used to be is a fading memory at this point.

No amount of tilting-leftward is going to work for the GOP now that the electorate appears to have tilted over the 50% mark. I still think there’s something fishy in the totals (you will never convince me that Romney legitimately got fewer votes than McCain did, ffs), and I’ve believed for years now (as have others) that we were quickly approaching the point of no return.

We’re there, sorry.

Midas on November 7, 2012 at 4:59 PM

Here’s an example of how we could have effectively fought fire with fire in this election:

They run this War on Women BS and it’s ridiculous but it’s effective at hurting the image of the GOP and Romney…

What did the GOP do? Nothing much just hoping people would see through it…point is many people are idiots and are only paying attention on the margins. Many people don’t see through it unless you fight back and show them.

We should have hit them back with their “War on Kids” and flooded the airways with ads regarding the immoral debt they’re racking up on the backs of every child in this country…couple that with ads making a point of Obama’s on the record support of infanticide and you know what happens? It kills the image of Obama as this hip guy who is so cool…

It makes him look like a reckless asshole and kills his cool image with millions upon millions of people and neutralizes the war on women crap. That’s how you win. Aggressive wins, especially when we’re already much better on policy. It’s the image and culture that is killing us and we’re not even trying.

jaygatz33 on November 7, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Does anyone doubt if the situation of lower turnout and the results were reversed that the media and dems would be hollering to high heaven and demanding investigations? Something stinks.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 5:00 PM

In the modern era, when conservatives run, they win every time (Reagan twice, W twice). When RINOs run, they almost always lose (Dole, McCain, Bush 1992) with the only RINO win coming in 1988 off of Reagan’s coattails.

sauldalinsky on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

If this is the lesson you learned, hello 8 years of Hillary.

ZippyZ on November 7, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Don’t help the trolls with their questions.

If anything annoys them, maybe they’ll leave.

Schadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Romney/Ryan /Hannity /Rove /Krauthammer /Levin/Barone /Rush /Palin fans I have great and comforting news for you ,there was great enthusiasm and a big crowd for Romney in Cincinnati the other night …

U2denver on November 7, 2012 at 5:02 PM

McCain received more votes in 2008 than Obama received in 2012. It’s really surprising. The republicans did not come out and support Romney…they just didn’t. Mormon issue? failure to make social issues part of the election? I don’t know.

Obama received 10 million fewer votes in 2012 than 2008. That makes sense since the economy is so bad and he didn’t have the euphoria of ’08.

The D+6 would NOT apply if Romney increased on McCain’s vote totals as we ALL thought he would. Obama did NOT replicate 2008. He did much worse. Romney underperformed 2008 and 2004 vote levels.

Yes, Obama’s get out the vote in swing states was impressive…and he has some coattails. And Republicans HAVE to attack the black and Hispanic and Asian votes. Need to get the old guys out of there and let new young blood court these voters 24.7 with conservative values they share. We can do it!

FreeManOtis on November 7, 2012 at 5:02 PM

As much as people love to rag on Sarah Palin, she drew 80,000 in Florida by herself. Romney/Ryan never got half that total to any of their rallies.

It may sound silly, but you need a candidate now with some sort of celebrity-style charisma.

And had the hurricane not hit, I think Romney wins FL, VA, OH and NH. It just stopped Romney’s momentum and boosted Obama’s job approval.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Your problem was you were taking into account Obama’s negatives without acknowledging Mitt had more than a few himself.

triple on November 7, 2012 at 4:52 PM

That wasn’t the issue. Obama got 6 million fewer votes. Mitt got 2 million more than McCain. That’s about 40K votes per state. Where were the Republicans. Again this year, they disappeared. I really do think the Mormon thing and Christie hurt Mitt. I didn’t want to believe it, but Christie helped stop Mitt’s momentum and helped Obama regain some votes.

Also, I don’t think this was as big a failure as people make it out to be. Yes, losing the election is either win or lose. There is no consolation prize there. But Mitt did make some gains. The popular vote was very close. I was a lib when Kerry lost. Did they give up? They went through 4 years of Bush. Over the next four years, things are indeed going to get worse. Republicans need to publicize how evil Obama’s policies are and how a normal person would not act this way. And it can’t just be that he’s a Muslim or hates America. You need to pin his actions on his character. Is there a way to get the Senate in 2 years? If so, do that.

I would use the next four years as momentum to build up for the next candidate. The Tea Party should concentrate on getting at least two viable candidates that can get the support of all Republicans including Evangelicals, Mormons, Catholics and other Christians. And work on attainable issues like partial birth abortion. Don’t go full monty. You’re going to freak out too many people. This is what Dems do. They start small. They’re doing this with gun regulations. Every regulation they pass is a step toward achieving their goals. And in the eyes of the law, PRECEDENT is what they go by.

MrX on November 7, 2012 at 5:03 PM

Next time the Republican Presidential candidate shall be a WASP governor with solid fiscal and social conservatism… We simply cannot afford to further alienate any of the Evangelical vote… Marco Rubio as his VP would do us very good among Latinos, women, and guarantees Flordia…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 5:03 PM

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Well, “black and hispanic identity politics” was covered in my outline. I just called it playing the race card and giving away free stuff to different groups.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 5:03 PM


Obama would not have had D+6 if Republicans came out. I heard Evangelicals was down 7% in Virginia.

I don’t get it. Something happened.

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.

McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

here’s no reason to hope this. There’s every reason to suspect that the candidate the GOP will foist upon people will be even *more* ‘moderate’ and left-leaning – and maybe that’s required if the electorate has so shifted, etc.

to be fair, pretty much everyone is more moderate than bachmann Cain santorum and Gingrich.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Another big problem Romney had was that he couldn’t press the Obamacare issue due to his health care plan in MA. That might have gotten traction and he could literally have run on that being the main part of his platform.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

So did anyone ask if Humpbot got a blue paint job?

Limerick on November 7, 2012 at 5:05 PM


McCain received more votes in 2008 than Obama received in 2012. It’s really surprising. The republicans did not come out and support Romney…they just didn’t. Mormon issue? failure to make social issues part of the election? I don’t know.

Romney was the problem.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Well, “black and hispanic identity politics” was covered in my outline. I just called it playing the race card and giving away free stuff to different groups.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 5:03 PM

I had a little premature posting problem there.

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 5:06 PM


to be fair, pretty much everyone is more moderate than bachmann Cain santorum and Gingrich.

Any of those candidates would have produced the same or broader electoral map than Team Romney. The electability argument was always a ruse.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:07 PM

the only outstanding votes are out of CA. There is 0% chance Romney will add even close to enough votes to catch McCain pace in FL, VA, OH

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:43 PM

A lot of states do not count provisional and absentee ballots until after election day. If I had to hazard a guess, I’d say there are several million more votes across the country still to be counted.

Ed made the same mistake the day after the election 2008, saying how the turnout was very mediocre at only 120 million. As it turns out, however, actual turnout was 130 million. The votes had just not been counted yet. This year is probably the same.

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:07 PM

No one would have ever thought that Romney is going to get less votes than McCain.

I dunno why that is such a huge shock considering that he, uhm, LOST to McCain.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 5:08 PM

It is simply incredible… Shocking beyond belief… I mean no one expected that Romney would get less vote than McCain nationally or the battleground states… That is the reason Elections Experts like Karl Rove and Michael Barone got it so wrong because in their analysis they would not even assumed for a second that Romney would get less vote than McCain the battleground states and nationally…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I thought in 2008 that Romney’s Mormonism cost him the GOP nomination, but figured in 2012 that people were fed up enough with 0dumba that they’d effectively overlook it. Now, I have this funny feeling I was wrong about that, and that his religious beliefs negatively affected both turnout for and against him to a substantial degree.

Anti-Control on November 7, 2012 at 5:08 PM

Del Delmonte …where were you when Romney and Rove needed your expert advice … you have let down the GOP/lunatic fringe by holding back … only YOU knew the key demographic group in the election was High School Dropouts … or whatever your latest craziness is spewing …

U2denver on November 7, 2012 at 5:09 PM

McCain received more votes in 2008 than Obama received in 2012.

McCain, 2008: 59,934,814
Obama, 2012: 60,398,485 (and still going up)

McCain did not win more votes in 2008 than Obama in 2012.

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Guys, please stop impregnating women. Those poor single mothers vote for Obama in droves.

hanzblinx on November 7, 2012 at 5:10 PM

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:07 PM

just checked total outstanding ballots in OH about 44k. Even if you allocate all 44k to Romney he still under performs McCain in OH by about 700k votes.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:12 PM

McCain, 2008: 59,934,814
Obama, 2012: 60,398,485 (and still going up)

McCain did not win more votes in 2008 than Obama in 2012.

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:09 PM

larger point stands GOP turnout is down 17% there are not enough outstanding votes to even catch McCain’s pace in 2008 for Romney.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Another big problem Romney had was that he couldn’t press the Obamacare issue due to his health care plan in MA. That might have gotten traction and he could literally have run on that being the main part of his platform.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

You are correct on that. But it was not the only reason he lost.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 5:15 PM

I thought in 2008 that Romney’s Mormonism cost him the GOP nomination, but figured in 2012 that people were fed up enough with 0dumba that they’d effectively overlook it. Now, I have this funny feeling I was wrong about that, and that his religious beliefs negatively affected both turnout for and against him to a substantial degree.

Anti-Control on November 7, 2012 at 5:08 PM

numbers don’t lie

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:16 PM

With Media firmly backing Obama, Romney didn’t stand a chance.

NORUK on November 7, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.

McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

THIS.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I thought in 2008 that Romney’s Mormonism cost him the GOP nomination, but figured in 2012 that people were fed up enough with 0dumba that they’d effectively overlook it. Now, I have this funny feeling I was wrong about that, and that his religious beliefs negatively affected both turnout for and against him to a substantial degree.

Anti-Control on November 7, 2012 at 5:08 PM

It is his Mormonism that cost him the election… Very sad indeed but that is the truth… Not many would talk about it but it is the big elephant in the room…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.

McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

exactly.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM

I don’t expect it to work, but just to try and stop the whole “McCain got more votes than Romney” nonsense. Here are just two examples that show millions of more votes yet to be counted.

http://blog.pe.com/the-pass/2012/11/07/yucaipa-98-million-school-bond-measure-trails/
But keep in mind that about 180,000 ballots remain to be counted in San Bernardino County and about the same number in Riverside County.

http://www.kirotv.com/news/ap/washington/12m-ballots-remain-to-be-counted-in-washington/nSzPM/
Secretary of State Sam Reed says about 1.2 million ballots remain to be counted in Washington.

http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/Polling-Place-Election-Day-Southern-California-Vote-177468691.html
About 1.5 million vote-by-mail ballots were issued in LA County, and Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk Dean Logan said some of those forms won’t be ready to be counted till Friday.

That’s over 3 million votes just in Washington and the Greater Los Angeles area. Wonder how many other millions are still waiting to be counted in other states?

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM

With Media firmly backing Obama, Romney didn’t stand a chance.

NORUK on November 7, 2012 at 5:16 PM

I’ll agree that media bias in favor of Obama is the worst I’ve ever seen, but no Republican in my memory has ever had the support of the media.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 5:19 PM

just checked total outstanding ballots in OH about 44k. Even if you allocate all 44k to Romney he still under performs McCain in OH by about 700k votes.

Can’t be that many. I think you meant to type 70,000. There are only about 5.5 million total votes in OH.

jdp629 on November 7, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.

McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

exactly.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM

SparkPlug on November 7, 2012 at 5:24 PM

I don’t want to hear another word from the likes of Karl Rove on what’s wrong with the GOP or from any other RINO.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 5:25 PM

just checked total outstanding ballots in OH about 44k. Even if you allocate all 44k to Romney he still under performs McCain in OH by about 700k votes.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Provisional ballots in Ohio will not be counted in Ohio until Nov. 17. In 2008 there were 200,000 provisional ballots, 160,000 of which were ruled to be valid.

If that pattern holds, there are nearly 200,000 votes still to be counted in Ohio. Not saying Romney will win it (he won’t) but that it is too early to compare 2008 totals to 2012.

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 5:26 PM

One thing is for sure – the Democrats proved they can win by running a completely negative, cynical, base turnout election, that does not address any of the days important issues:
1. Demonization and character assassination of your opponent.
2. Give away free stuff to different groups.
3. Cynically play the race card at every opportunity.
4. Demagogue issues that apply to different groups: immigration, welfare, War on Women, etc.
5. Choose the opponent then you know you will win.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

I added the most important item to that list.

Last night the networks were pushing for Chris Christie to be our 2016 nominee talking about how they always plan in advance. We think we nominated Mitt Romney but who was really behind him with the billion spent on him?

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Don’t worry repubs/right wingers …. this will be like the election of 1980 …the tide will turn for Romney at the last minute you just have to keep holding on …it will come …just hold on … after all HOt Air and Dick Morris has been promising that non stop … just hold on …just a little bit longer …

U2denver on November 7, 2012 at 5:26 PM

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.
McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

exactly.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM

SparkPlug on November 7, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Yes this.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 5:29 PM

What a pathetic whine. Always an excuse. Never in touch with reality.

independentvoice on November 7, 2012 at 4:53 PM

There is documentation of voter fraud, and it’s mostly in battleground states where it was expected to be very close. Republican poll watchers were turned away and ejected from polling places in PA:

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/06/gop-inspectors-reportedly-kicked-out-of-multiple-philadelphia-polling-places/

There are formal complaints in Broward County, FL. of fraud:

http://www.examiner.com/article/massive-voter-fraud-broward-county-florida-poll-watcher-ejected-from-station

Those are realities, and you can close your eyes and pretend they don’t exist if you choose.

JannyMae on November 7, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Everyone seems to forget what was the biggest coalition Bush had in 04 when he beat Kerry…Values Voters. I remember Jonathan Alter going on and on about this in the aftermath of that election.

Drop the social issues and those voters are gone for good, and most have taken the last few elections off as it is.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 5:35 PM

There’s no reason to believe republicans have it any easier in 2016.

In this election you had superPACs. Huge amounts, nay, unlimited amounts of corporate money breaking for Romney and republicans.

You give obama 4 years to reshape the supreme court and pass a few regulations, yeah, this was the last superpac election. Citizens united is good as dead.

So now republicans are faced with an ever more diverse country in 16, social norms will have evolved further(just look at where gay marriage was 4 years ago compared to today) – and now you have to come up with the money to fund campaign ads without koch industries funding.

Should be fun.

triple on November 7, 2012 at 6:00 PM

You have BOTH been WILDLY successful – as you can SEE by the RESULTS of your EFFORTS!!

williamg on November 7, 2012 at 4:55 PM

MEDICINE! NOW!

DeathtotheSwiss on November 7, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Everyone seems to forget what was the biggest coalition Bush had in 04 when he beat Kerry…Values Voters. I remember Jonathan Alter going on and on about this in the aftermath of that election.

Drop the social issues and those voters are gone for good, and most have taken the last few elections off as it is.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 5:35 PM

So what are they waiting for? The end times? A Jeb Bush run?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 7, 2012 at 6:02 PM

This is off-topic but interesting nonetheless:

West seeks injunction to impound ballots, voting machines
by George Bennett | November 7th, 2012

St. Lucie County ballots have already been put in a sealed room.

FORT PIERCE — Republican U.S. Rep. Allen West wants courts to order elections officials to impound ballots and voting machines in preparation for a recount following his narrow loss to Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy.

Motions for injunctions were filed in St. Lucie and Palm Beach counties. Information wasn’t immediately available from Martin County, the third county in congressional District 18.

West trails Murphy by 2,456 votes or 0.78 percent. That’s not close enough to trigger a state law that requires a recount for races decided by 0.5 percent or less. But West claims irregularities in the way St. Lucie County counted its early ballots.

St. Lucie County Elections Supervisor Gertrude Walker has already sealed ballots after West’s attorney made a request to the canvassing board early this morning.

Walker said some of the 18 memory cards that stored information from more than 37,000 early ballots could not be uploaded properly on Tuesday night, so the ballots were recounted later.

West led by 1,833 votes at around 9:30 p.m. and continued to hold a narrow lead as totals were updated throughout the night. But after the early votes from St. Lucie County were recounted, Murphy had a 2,456-vote advantage.

A statement by West campaign manager Tim Edson said there was “complete chaos” in Walker’s office and accused Walker of “hostility and demonstrated incompetence.”

Walker called the complaint a “low blow.”

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 6:06 PM

It definitely won’t get easier, that’s why I think it’s dumb to think that we can win in 2016 just by dragging a Rubio or Walker up there and automatically think we’ll win because it’s not Romney.

The fact is the GOP need to be torn apart and pieced back together. The old Karl Rove evangelical Christian white southerner coalition is not going to win any more elections. In fact I would say in the last 12 years the Democrats have assembled their electorate specifically to counter that coalition. Atheists. Blue state elitists. Minorities. Basically, anyone who hates or has nothing in common with the typical bible belt voter. And they’ve succeeded. We need a new strategy now.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:07 PM

So what are they waiting for? The end times?

Actually, they are. Have you ever talked to a true evangelical Christian?

Just for fun, try asking them about this election. They are probably not that upset, or even surprised. They believe man and society is inherently evil, as the bible says. And the end of the world is inevitable.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Now, if that message could get to the RNC, we run the strong candidate for house/senate in the off years to handcuff the Lefty POTUSes to come.

socalcon on November 7, 2012 at 4:31 PM

I wish I had a dollar for every post that said 2008 was not a valid ID model for 2012. It was 2010 that mattered, we had to use those numbers. I said that myself, and I was stupidly wrong.

Midterms and Presidential years are separate models, and will forever remain so. Look at the Walker recall in WI. Where did that go? Like it never happened.

So Romney gained independents but lost much of his base. Never thought that would happen either. I learned a lot of hard lessons yesterday. Unfortunately I think we blew our last chance to right the country before it drives itself over the cliff in an orgy of spending and celebrity worship. And with SCOTUS up for grabs, bang goes the chance of keeping the Constitution.

I honestly don’t know whether a conservative like Palin would have won. She would have energised the Left as well as the Right. I can’t answer that.

Ozwitch on November 7, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Actually, they are. Have you ever talked to a true evangelical Christian?

Just for fun, try asking them about this election. They are probably not that upset, or even surprised. They believe man and society is inherently evil, as the bible says. And the end of the world is inevitable.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:09 PM

They’re right, or at least half right. It’s the end of the world as we know it, and it’s happened many, many times before. The fall of Rome ring any bells. Read the fourth turning. It’s that time again, and while they may have mistaken it for the big end of the world they seem to have a better grasp of reality than most.

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Ted Cruz did not lose!

American Dream 246 on November 7, 2012 at 6:21 PM

So Romney gained independents but lost much of his base. Never thought that would happen either. I learned a lot of hard lessons yesterday. Unfortunately I think we blew our last chance to right the country before it drives itself over the cliff in an orgy of spending and celebrity worship. And with SCOTUS up for grabs, bang goes the chance of keeping the Constitution.

I honestly don’t know whether a conservative like Palin would have won. She would have energised the Left as well as the Right. I can’t answer that.

Ozwitch on November 7, 2012 at 6:10 PM

I certainly understood that when Romney came out of the primary, he had problems in that conservatives and Tea Partiers really did not trust him. However, I thought he had successfully united the base when he selected Paul Ryan, and after his first debate performance. I guess I was wrong.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

So the polls were right all along? OF COURSE they were! Only readers of HotAir and other conservative sites believed the contrary because polls that showed Obama ahead were dismissed and those that showed Romney ahead applauded. Rasmussen MISLED conservatives this time around because he couldn’t get away from his endorsement of Mitt Romney. Gallup wanted to pay back the Obama administration for criticizing them thus the ballony polls that had Romney leading by 5-7 points (of course they came up with a stastical tie in their last polling).

State pollsters mostly go with demographics instead of party affiliation. Democratic leaning voters will always outnumber Republicans in Presidential election because of the minority turnout (which is getting more and more of the voting percentage).

The solution is not to embrace latino Republicans like Cruz or Martinez. The solution is to address minority issues and just not assume all they want is free stuff. Socially, Black and latino are more aligned with Republicans (gay marriage, religion etc…) but as long as the majority of them believe Republican are white racists that look down on them, theyt will keep voting Democrats and dismiss any Hispanic or black Republican candidate.

Going forward, it will alway sbe about Demographics every 4 years.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Romney happened. He had no natural political base, not regional as he could never have carried his own state, and certainly not ideological as he actively suppressed the 3 principle ideological formations of the GOP coalition–tea partiers, social conservatives, and Ron Paulists–in a campaign that was in effect a campaign against the GOP base.

McCain-Palin with a shoe-string publicly financed botch of a campaign that McCain himself tried to suspend STILL outperformed Romney, only McCain ran in a Democratic wave election and Romney had a billion dollars and ran against the weakest incumbent since Carter.

casuist on November 7, 2012 at 5:04 PM

exactly.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 5:18 PM

SparkPlug on November 7, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Yes this.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 5:29 PM

You are Correct.

portlandon on November 7, 2012 at 6:31 PM

The solution is not to embrace latino Republicans like Cruz or Martinez. The solution is to address minority issues and just not assume all they want is free stuff. Socially, Black and latino are more aligned with Republicans (gay marriage, religion etc…) but as long as the majority of them believe Republican are white racists that look down on them, theyt will keep voting Democrats and dismiss any Hispanic or black Republican candidate.

Going forward, it will always be about Demographics every 4 years.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Since the 60′s the Democrats and the media have been working hard to portray all Republicans as racists, homophobes, xenophobes, etc. It has gotten worse during the Age of Obama – since any opposition to the man is labeled racist. I’m not sure how we deal with that problem going forward. Any minorities who achieve success in the Republican Party are labeled as tokens.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 6:34 PM

It has to be cheating.
peakspike on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM
What a pathetic whine. Always an excuse. Never in touch with reality.
independentvoice on November 7, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Okay, independentvoice, you have made your point about whining across the threads, so time for you to chill.

Sherman1864 on November 7, 2012 at 6:34 PM

We live in a divided nation.

kingsjester on November 7, 2012 at 6:36 PM

If Rasmussen surveys , surveys, not polls, 15,000 people and finds party ID at +6 and Gallup surveys 9,000 and finds R +1, then it strikes me that the problem is getting out Republican vote. I cannot imagine what the explanation is among party and campaign leaders why we are 2,000,000 votes short of McCain’s total. We were told how many millions of contacts had been made. We were told about increases in party registration. And yet we put fewer voters at the polls.

I am not yet convinced of “realignment.” Less than 500,000 votes across 5 states that we can win , and we are joyous today. That’s not realignment. That’s ineffectiveness on our part.

There were things wrong with what happened during the summer. Identity politics triumphed, given the number of voters that went to the polls. But Republicans should be very careful about playing that game — we will never be given credit for anything we do: witness how little good it did McCain to support the Bush immigration program. We let the liberal left and the media dominate the last two years of the Bush administration, and no one did anything during the summer while the left carpet bombed Ohio, Virginia and Florida with lies and smears.

I suspect by 2014 those ID numbers will go up for Republicans, because there is nothing that the occupant of the WH will do that improves the lot of average Americans. And before it matters again, we need to get clear answers about how we make the best use of the resources we have.

EastofEden on November 7, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Also you have to understand the evangelical Christian mindset. Their priorities go somewhat like this…God, the Bible, living a “Christian” life, evangelism, Christian “values”…and somewhere far down the line is family, their job, and stuff like “politics” and “country”.

Come to think of it, was it really a good idea to try to build a political coalition out of people like this in the fist place?

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:37 PM

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:37 PM

What do you mean, “people like this”? Per Gallup, 78% of Americans are Christians. As an very patriotic Conservative American Christiamn, I have a question:

Sterotype much?

kingsjester on November 7, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Also you have to understand the evangelical Christian mindset.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I don’t believe in God and I think Romney was a liberal and not worth supporting. He was just Obama-lite.

sharrukin on November 7, 2012 at 6:43 PM

As I have said for years now, one of the reasons O’bamna won the 2008 election was because he set an alltime American record by getting 70% of the high school dropout vote (the previous champ was Algore with 61% in 2000). I also said that for him to have a chance in 2012, he would have to get some of the remaining 30% of high school dropouts to vote for him.

DelD
If you’re serious then please present exact numbers. You have the percentages and are dealing with a known-quantity, right?

If you can’t provide data instead of your measly percentages you really should never make another proclamation of knowledge until you bone up.

Worrying about high-school dropouts is a waste of time. You think there aren’t dummies in red-states? You’re letting your need to feel superior get in the way of proving you are.

FAIL!

Capitalist Hog on November 7, 2012 at 6:45 PM

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

So you would have two democratic parties, then?
Face it, you want a one party socialist state.

The fact remains that the Romney message was more or less right while the Obama message was almost totally wrong: what you are describing is your vision of a low information, racist electorate.

You may be right, and I probably agree with you, but that doesn’t make you in the right.

In fact, you are in the morally and ethically wrong (like Obama).

If I have to have poor ethics to win, then no thank you.

I leave the poor ethics to you.

Sherman1864 on November 7, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Since the 60′s the Democrats and the media have been working hard to portray all Republicans as racists, homophobes, xenophobes, etc. It has gotten worse during the Age of Obama – since any opposition to the man is labeled racist. I’m not sure how we deal with that problem going forward. Any minorities who achieve success in the Republican Party are labeled as tokens.

We just need to show them that we are attentitve to their issues without expecting any immediate return. Let’s work on a comprehensive immigration reform in the House instead of just arguing about it. The House has to pass something the President cannot ignore. Let’s pass a bill to improve schools in minority areas. We can deal with minority issues without giving food stamps or free stuff. Minority just want peace of mind and future for their children.
When minority see Republicans workjing hard to improve their lifes (and thei immigrant parent), they will gradually come along.
Why did Asian American vote 73-26 for Obama? Asians aren’t food stamp minority and are mostly middle class. They did because they don;t think Republican care about ANY IMMIGRANT…

Also Republican don’t need a Latino or a black to lead it (it will be seen as disingenious). Paul Ryan (the last VP) is the right person to lead the way.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Interesting tidbit about WI…

Exit polls yesterday showed Scott Walker with a 52% approval rating even among the increased electorate.

gumbyandpokey on November 7, 2012 at 6:50 PM

So you would have two democratic parties, then?
Face it, you want a one party socialist state.

The fact remains that the Romney message was more or less right while the Obama message was almost totally wrong: what you are describing is your vision of a low information, racist electorate.

You may be right, and I probably agree with you, but that doesn’t make you in the right.

In fact, you are in the morally and ethically wrong (like Obama).

If I have to have poor ethics to win, then no thank you.

I leave the poor ethics to you.

Wrong way to look at it. Have you seen the Asian American vote? It was even worse than latino (73-26 for Obama). Do middle and upper class Asian Americans fall to your class categorization? Don;t put all minority in the same bag. They are many hard working minority voters that vote Democrats because they don’t trust Republicans.

Minority just want white Republican to show them they care about their issues…and they are welcome in America. Democrats don’t but tehy are very good at pretending they do.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:53 PM

latino are more aligned with Republicans (gay marriage, religion etc…)

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I am so tired of hearing that. There is absolutely no evidence to back it up. Lets look at the politics of Mexico and South America. The reality is that we have strong communist and socialist parties in Hispanic nations. Are they protesting against the racist white man at home too?

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 6:55 PM

So Romney gained independents but lost much of his base. Never thought that would happen either. I learned a lot of hard lessons yesterday. ***
Ozwitch on November 7, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Where is your evidence that Romney lost the base of the Republican party?

Just looking at Ohio–Obama won Ohio by 100,000 votes this year, and won Ohio by 258,897 votes in 2008. So Romney picked up 159k votes, but it wasn’t enough.

Outlander on November 7, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Small government, lower taxes, more liberty: that is the message, jules. If we can’t convince the electorate this is the absolute best, then I concede the dem lies will win. And they just did in this election.

Sherman1864 on November 7, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Do middle and upper class Asian Americans fall to your class categorization? Don;t put all minority in the same bag. They are many hard working minority voters that vote Democrats because they don’t trust Republicans.

Minority just want white Republican to show them they care about their issues…and they are welcome in America. Democrats don’t but tehy are very good at pretending they do.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:53 PM

What issues could Asians have? They have a high racial success rate. They are generally accepted socially by whites. Every geek I know dreams of an Asian girl friend. What type of ass kissing is required to get them to vote GOP?

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Wrong way to look at it. Have you seen the Asian American vote? It was even worse than latino (73-26 for Obama). Do middle and upper class Asian Americans fall to your class categorization? Don;t put all minority in the same bag. They are many hard working minority voters that vote Democrats because they don’t trust Republicans.

Minority just want white Republican to show them they care about their issues…and they are welcome in America. Democrats don’t but tehy are very good at pretending they do.

Jules, I think the asian situation is a bit more complex than you described. The “immigrant” issue is less important now among asians as is the issue of being a “minority”. There is a large portion of young 2nd generation of Asian Americans now who see themselves as having more in common with other minorities like blacks, ie suffering from the same glass ceilings and stereotypes placed on them by “racist whites”.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Wow, I got quoted by AP in the main story. Quite the honor!

As for the current discussion, I’m just not sure we can ever win enough minority votes over to our side to matter. The stereotype of the ‘racist GOP’ has been reified so often in the minds of these voters that they refuse to even consider the possibility of voting GOP. I still say our best bet is to court the youth vote and single white women by de-emphasizing social issues.

That’ll lose us the evangelicals? Well, it looks like we already lost them, if these turnout numbers are any indication.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 7:16 PM

4. While OBama was “pandering” to every leftist nut job in his base, Romney dishes the Tea Party at the convention, refuses to let Sarah Palin say whatever she wants, (while RINO’s like Christie bloviate all over the place – and then knife you in the back later for the cameras with the Bamster), and exclude the 2010 wave movement. Would not even let her stump for him. I really at this point don’t care what the Mittbots think about Sarah, but you got 2.5 million fewer votes than McCain-Palin!!!! She could have turned that many out just from her Facebook account.

Starlink on November 7, 2012 at 4:59 PM

THIS x1000!!!! The only reason Romney got my vote was he convinced me during the first debate that he would not leave our military behind (I have a Marine son in Afghanistan). Prior to that you couldn’t have paid me to vote for the man. Why? He does not have conservative principles. He talked like he did but his past didn’t reflect it at all. Then, again by his actions, he made it seem as though he didn’t give a ferret’s fundament whether the conservatives supported him or not. I told family and friends (those of them who would listen) that if I felt that way i.e. would go to the polls but not pull the lever for either Romney or Obama, how many other conservatives were out there thinking the same way? Romney barely managed to sway me and I was looking to be convinced.

texasmagnolia on November 7, 2012 at 7:19 PM

jules on November 7, 2012 at 6:53 PM

You’re advocating identity politics and racial pandering. However, this strategy should worry you. What will your racial group do when the largest minority(soon to be)catches on to this game and decides to play. Whites cast 72% of the votes in this election. What will happen when they start to demand their fare share of the racial spoils?

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 7:20 PM

But you know, in the end, we could all be just wishful thinking. Maybe the idea of the big American “melting pot” is just a fantasy? Maybe in the end each race would ultimately only look after their own?

Has any large nation in history ever succeeded integrating so many different races into a single culture? Is it even possible? From what we’re seeing happening in Europe, it doesn’t seem like there’s much hope for the future of American race relations.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 7:23 PM

What issues could Asians have? They have a high racial success rate. They are generally accepted socially by whites. Every geek I know dreams of an Asian girl friend. What type of ass kissing is required to get them to vote GOP?

No kissing needed. If Asians see that Republicans are addressing minority issues, they will see them differently. It’s not about getting taking care for them, it’d about White Republicans not accepting them (at least the belief they don’t). In CA, they feel comfopratbel with white liberal…Not so in Red America.
The irony is that all those minority groups don’t get along but mobilize against white Republicans whom they see as racists that don’t want them here, don’t respect them and look down on them.
The way to change it is to address some of their issues that make sense (no hand outs or food stamps…improving schools is one way).

jules on November 7, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Obama’s ground game was better…they saw the polls, and saw they needed a +6 or 7 to beat, so they went out and did what they had to…unlike the Republican’s who relied on the misconception that they could not repeat a +6 or 7…

Obama won it, and the Republican’s lost it…dems had the better ground game and a better strategy…Republican’s relied on speeches and the belief that dems weren’t going to show up.

Not realizing, that the unions would never allow that…

right2bright on November 7, 2012 at 7:24 PM

BTW, the Tea Party had the ground game, had the volunteers, had the phone banks, had the organization, to compete with the dems ground game…however, Mitt decided to take another direction, not use that resource, and that was enough for him to lose…pity, moderates campaings only get mediocre results….

right2bright on November 7, 2012 at 7:28 PM

You’re advocating identity politics and racial pandering

Pandering will not work! Black saw Condi Rice as SOS as racial pandering. Latino will see a Rubio empowering as racial pandering.

Again, why can’t Republicans care about minority issues GENUINELY? People are more productive in the workplace when they have peace of mind, you know. it benefits EVERYONE.

It’s one way to deal with the enduring racist label…

jules on November 7, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Actually, they are. Have you ever talked to a true evangelical Christian?

Just for fun, try asking them about this election. They are probably not that upset, or even surprised. They believe man and society is inherently evil, as the bible says. And the end of the world is inevitable.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Just looking at Ohio–Obama won Ohio by 100,000 votes this year, and won Ohio by 258,897 votes in 2008. So Romney picked up 159k votes, but it wasn’t enough.

Outlander on November 7, 2012 at 7:00 PM

These two tie together.

I’ve been asking people who worked the OH ground game, and the conclusion is people in the state GOP or the national party have been lying the entire time.

Romney’s people really don’t wtf went on in OH, that’s why they held out. Information they had was massively incorrect.

They were told their Early Voters were the low-turnout ones. That was wrong in some of the more important Southern counties.

Current belief is that this stems from the bad blood between Kasich, Romney’s camp and the low-grade war within the state GOP between Kasich and Taft/DeWine/Voinovich wing.

They claimed it was killed off many moons ago, but it’s beginning to appear not so.

Re: Evangelicals

The question everyone has been asking, who was apart of the ground game, is what’s being defined as evangelical?

Big Church, Joel Osteen variant evangelicals who line the entire state showed up for Mitt just as they showed for McCain and W.

But around Cincy, not the traditional Evang’s, but as it’s been referred to constantly as this “other group”…no one is sure who the f the GOP is talking about.

So if this is the “rapture tomorrow at noon” crowd, Rove, Limbaugh, etc…have really screwed the party. They know the vast majority of GOP voters do not want to be beholden to that constituency to carry the day, because of scenarios just like this; that an incredibly good man lost due to his religion.

budfox on November 7, 2012 at 7:40 PM

BTW, the Tea Party had the ground game, had the volunteers, had the phone banks, had the organization, to compete with the dems ground game…however, Mitt decided to take another direction, not use that resource, and that was enough for him to lose…pity, moderates campaings only get mediocre results….

right2bright on November 7, 2012 at 7:28 PM

I don’t know what state that was, but the Tea Party in OH followed their own beat and it had nothing to do with Romney. State or GOP politics, maybe, but not due to the Romney ground game.

budfox on November 7, 2012 at 7:44 PM

jules on November 7, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Jules, your message is beginning to melt into the usual liberal blob of feelings, not issues. You seemed have a point to make for a while there, but that has broken down into liberal low information claptrap.

You are a typical liberal and stop trying to pretend otherwise.

Sherman1864 on November 7, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Pandering will not work! Black saw Condi Rice as SOS as racial pandering. Latino will see a Rubio empowering as racial pandering.

Again, why can’t Republicans care about minority issues GENUINELY? People are more productive in the workplace when they have peace of mind, you know. it benefits EVERYONE.

It’s one way to deal with the enduring racist label…

jules on November 7, 2012 at 7:31 PM

You didn’t address my question. What will you think when whites start to demand the same type of pandering to secure their vote? When we demand that you GENUINELY care about our issues?

…..OK, apparently I’m stupid and I need some help here. Lets have some concrete examples about what GENUINELY caring amounts to? Would you like us to fetch you some warm tea and slippers? Maybe if a white person shows up at your doorstep to shovel your snow and clean off your car this winter. Perhaps if we kneel whenever your divine diversity passes us on the street? Would any of those make you feel more comfortable?

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 7:47 PM

OK, apparently I’m stupid and I need some help here. Lets have some concrete examples about what GENUINELY caring amounts to? Would you like us to fetch you some warm tea and slippers? Maybe if a white person shows up at your doorstep to shovel your snow and clean off your car this winter. Perhaps if we kneel whenever your divine diversity passes us on the street? Would any of those make you feel more comfortable?

See you are seeing eveything as “hand out”. It’s about being inclusive and a feeling of belonging. Minorities don’t have a sense of belonging in Red America. They feel respected ans accepted in Blue America because liberal don’t dismiss them.
When anyone make a case for Republicans to care for minrities issues, he/she is accused of being a liberal in disguise.
I am expressing my feeling as a Republican that lives with many minorities that are not even Democrats but vote Democrats because they think they will address issues they care about (like improving their schools for their kids to have a chance to be somebody).

What I mean by addressing minority issues is not to give them free stuff or help them clean thei driveways. It’s about showing Republicans care about them as much as they care about their own…and not just dismiss them aa as food stamp seekers.

Again, most minorities are hard working people that just want to be included in American society as EQUAL to whites. Liberal give them that facade…Republicans don’t because they don’t think they need to.
Yes, insecurity has a lot to do with it so extending a hand by improving schools in their area is not asking for much. It’s about RESPECT, not hand outs…

Why did Mia Love lose in Utah? She was rejected by voters in a very republican state for a reason… With your attitude, it will be tougher and tougher for the like of Mia Love to believe they are wanted within the GOP tent.

jules on November 7, 2012 at 8:06 PM

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