RCP poll averages predicted 49 of 50 states

posted at 3:22 pm on November 7, 2012 by Allahpundit

One last 2012 poll post for old times’ sake before we start in bright and early tomorrow morning with 2016 polls. (Joking, joking.) There was one basic meta-question in the sturm and drang over Nate Silver and statistical models: Were the state polls showing Obama sweeping the midwest correct or were the national polls, some of which had Romney ahead even at the very end, right in predicting a photo finish? Now we know. Sean Trende thoughtfully weighed the case for both sides a few days ago. My assumption, like many other people’s, was that O couldn’t duplicate the turnout he generated in 2008. All the polls showing, say, a D+6 advantage simply had to be wrong, as that was way too close to the D+7 he grabbed back then. There was too much stacked against him this time — unemployment near eight percent, liberal disillusionment with the pace of “progress,” a fervently negative campaign that demolished his Hopenchange brand, etc etc. Plus, Republicans couldn’t wait to get to the polls to beat him, and had even come to genuinely like Romney as he campaigned down the stretch. Logically, I thought, the best O could do was maybe D+3 and probably it’d be closer than that. Actual result, per the national exit poll: D+6. That’s why last night is so alarming. 2008 could be dismissed as a fluke but last night smells more like realignment. He essentially duplicated the results of his first “experiment,” which, in science, means we have validation of a hypothesis. Hypothesis: If Democrats can muster that sort of advantage even in the worst of times (albeit with heavy GOTV help from Obama’s superb organization), then the GOP’s starting each election in the near term in a hole.

So some of the national polls like Gallup and Rasmussen were wrong and the state polls were right. See for yourself by checking the final averages of the toss-up states on RCP’s election page. They accurately predicted the winner everywhere except Florida, and in fact frequently underestimated Obama’s final margin. (In other words, the polls were slightly skewed for, er, Romney.) If the state polls were right then the models based on state polls were also bound to be right, which meant that Silver’s probability model was right for all 50 states — as was the model developed by Stanford prof Simon Jackman for HuffPo, as was the Votomatic model developed by Drew Linzer. Jackman’s model, in fact, nailed the margin in Florida, and Linzer predicted flat out the morning of the election that Obama would net 332 electoral votes, which looks to be spot on. Impressive stuff, but not surprising given their baseline: They were modeling based on the state polls, so if the state polls looked good for O, then so would the model. For that reason, I never understood the ferocious antagonism online lately to Silver. He wasn’t the one churning out the data showing an Obama win, the state pollsters were. Says Linzer:

I’ll add, though, that on the eve of the election, averaging the polls, or running them through any sort of sensible model, isn’t all that hard. We are all using the same data (more or less) and so it doesn’t surprise me that we’re all reaching similar conclusions. The real challenge is producing meaningful and accurate forecasts early in the campaign. My model is designed to be robust to short-term fluctuations in the polls, and converge in a stable and gradual manner to the final, Election Day estimates. It appears that in this regard, the model has worked as intended.

But from a broader perspective, my model has been predicting that Obama will win 332 electoral votes – give or take – since June. If all of us are correct today, the next question to ask is when each model arrived at the ultimate outcome.

Note that last paragraph. If you thought there was poll angst this time, imagine what it’ll look like in two years when Linzer or Jackman or Silver starts showing a victory for one side or the other in the midterms four months out from election day and that side’s supporters have to confront this track record. If you’re a baseball fan and think the sport’s too top heavy with sabermetric analysis, wait until political junkies fully absorb the Jackman/Silver/Linzer record this time. You’ll need a statistics degree to follow elections soon.

Oh, and because I know you’re curious: The single most accurate pollster of the cycle, according to Fordham University’s polisci department, was PPP, a.k.a. Kos’s pollster. Out of 28 polling orgs, Rasmussen and Gallup tied for 24th.

Update: Good point from the comments about the saber-metrizing of politics:

If Silver or Tom Tango or Bill James or Keith Law projects a 3.2 fWAR, .240/25/102 slash line, .810 OPS and 130 OPS+ for, say, Ryan Braun, that’s not going to make his real life numbers suddenly decline. He’s not going to despair over getting bad projections from Fangraphs.

But if Linzer is accurate this year 4 months out, and he calls it for Cuomo/Hillary/Warren/Booker in June of 2016, it could have a depressing effect on GOP GOTV efforts. The lines of causality go both ways.


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embrace immigration reform and amnesty. do it or it will be truly rammed down your throats sooner or latter.
nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Foolish decision.

How many latino votes do we get for “good will” of passing amnesty?

Ted Cruz lost to a fat white dem with a mullet by 35 points in TX border counties.

How many new dems are made through amnesty? FL TX will be certainly gone.

picklesgap on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Thanks partly to me; there is a brand new S&W MP 15-22 sitting on my shop table, just got it this morning.

Bishop on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

I want one of those but are 22′s really going to be on the list they try to ban?

Go over the fiscal cliff to tie up Obama, preventing him from going after lib wish list?

El_Terrible on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Obama phone lady and the rest of the 52%, heh.

Schadenfreude on November 7, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Hold on now, that OWS liberal dude who shat on the police car had the perfect angle so as not to soil his own pants while unloading, that takes some serious math skills and he did it all without a protractor.

Bishop on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM

David Axelrod’s mustache is alive… Michael Barone’s credibility is dead.

Alpha_Male on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM

What ED and AP were doing in the run-up to the election was little more than a slightly higher-brow version of what that fat stupid moron Dean Chambers was doing by “unskewing” polls: changing the numbers until they look the way you want them to. Pretty sad to see on a site that normally does good work.

Armin Tamzarian on November 7, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Yes, continue to act like there was no reason to be apprehensive about a D+7 sample given the 2010 midterms. Very intellectually honest of you.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 3:55 PM

In 2010 we stormed to victory across the nation.
What happened since then?
Romney had some failings which coattailed, but also, Obamacare was forgotten. That’s the main thing. We didn’t keep hitting the Obamacare issue with PAC ads continuously in 2011-12. We need to do that NOW in an educational way… continuously. Not just 2 months before an election. Start now. Hit Obamacare hard with ads as its implementation begins, and support PACs that do that with your donations $, and encourage others to donate.
Also, in 2012 abortion did not just mar individual senate races like it did in 2010, but with the help of nutcases (this word is a consensus word for them now) Akin & Mourdach abortion & RAPE became a centerpiece of the campaign, not Obamacare. Mitt could not run away from abortion, as the threat to Roe vs Wade was an undercurrent. We need to figure out a way not to condone abortion, but make it a non-issue. The issue is sinking our ship. Look at FL where a reasonable restriction on abortion funding lost in a landslide! But the intransigent among us will stick to their guns and go down fighting, taking us all down with them as we as a consequence lose our nation to the libs and socialists. Don’t abandon our fight against amnesty, but do jettison abortion. It don’t help.
Plus, we spent that last two months sounding like loud insensitive oafs crowing about an issue no one cares about: LIBYA! The election results prove that was a losing issue for us! At least give that up now. People care about Obamacare, not Libya.

anotherJoe on November 7, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Everyone can hate on Ed and AP, but the entire right wing had two years of polling showing us ahead in enthusiasm and voter ID, so suck it, critics.

blatantblue on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM

But, but NATE SILVER IS A STATISTICAL GENIUS.

BTW Ed and Allah, thanks for deconstructing the polls which predicted almost exactly the narrow Obammy win, if you guys had not dome that service for us the polls would have predicted an Obama blow oiut that did not happen

sheikh of thornton on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM

I want one of those but are 22′s really going to be on the list they try to ban?

Go over the fiscal cliff to tie up Obama, preventing him from going after lib wish list?

El_Terrible on November 7, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Focus on all aspects of what these thugs have in mind; concentrate on what Clinton did and then double it for what Barky will do.

The magazine is 25 rounds and 25 round magazines are death machines. So sayeth the liberals.

Bishop on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM

My takeaways from this election -

1. Slicing & dicing of the market by BCG/Bain guys is not accurate. Note to self – hire McKinsey or Booz or ATK to do that in the future. :).
2. Romney was precise with his 47% comment.
3. Like Ed had mentioned earlier, the electorate has irrecoverably become Dem. You may have token Mia Loves but the average voter is Harold and Kumar and Fluke and the 4chan user.

sram on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM

embrace immigration reform and amnesty. do it or it will be truly rammed down your throats sooner or latter.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

It won’t matter a whit. Republicans put Lincoln into office and the country went to war over it. Republicans pushed the Civil Rights Act past Dixiecrats, and LBJ took the credit for that. Now suddenly Republicans are supposed to be the slavery-slash-Jim-Crow party and blacks won’t touch them with a ten-foot pole.

Even if they don’t see the “evolution” on amnesty as pandering, Hispanics will still give Obama the credit for legalizing ten million new voters. Then we’ll have a Biden moment with a hot mic picking up “we’ll have those Spics voting for us for two hundred years” and a generation from now no one will remember he said it, and Hispanics will have gone from 70/30 D to 90/10 D.

The Schaef on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

In a few days we will learn it was stolen. Bank on it.

nobar on November 7, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Why does it give me an eerie feeling that the tallied results were carefully matched to the predictions, not the other way around?

Archivarix on November 7, 2012 at 3:28 PM

It has to be cheating.

peakspike on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

we broke records for lines in a state that isn’t a swing state at all and we wake up to find voting dropped by 14 million for a 12% drop? Remember when we used to hear votes in certain precints amounted to 15% more than registered voters? I think they’ve found a new way to cheat.

DanMan on November 7, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Massive missing Military ballets and some counties lost the paper ballets but still have totals. Some Machines show that there was 20 people that voted on it but last night it showed 2000. They will find trucks of thousands of shredded ballets in SEIU trucks. The dead need not vote when they remove whole swaths of Romney vote.

tjexcite on November 7, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Sore LOSERS.

sob0728 on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

And what exactly explains Romney drawing fewer voters than even McCain in 2008? That to me is the biggest WTF of this election.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

That bothers me as well. Every poll showed the enthusiasm on our side, and every article I read about what was happening on the ground reported that our early voting and absentee ballots were out pacing 2008. So what happened on election day? Could it be that the Democrats now just fundamentally outnumber us – so that even enthusiasm/intensity does not matter?

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Don’t blame me. I wanted Palin to run.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Sorry.

I was just trying to answer your question.

Some voters have to have a reason to go vote. A conservative candidate like Palin gives them that reason at the top of the ticket at least. Or one that is their Rep or Senator. Even a feeling that if they vote they will help promote conservatism.

This year there was nothing to excite them to vote so they stayed home. It depresses them when a candidate wants them to vote against someone. They will not do that.

I would have voted for any Republican except Ron Paul or Mitt Romney.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Of course!

Did you really think America was gonna last forever?

All good things and such…

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 3:52 PM

nothing last forever but america will outlast all of us here.
one of the things that makes america great is that our diversity brings us strenght. I mean, see spain, they are all white and nearly the same culture and there they are nearly splitting the country for ethnic reasons. we have to embrace latinos, asians and other growing minorities and turn them to conservatives.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Bottom line is turnout among republicans decreased by about 17% from 2008!!! If Romney had gotten as many votes as McShame in OH, VA, CO and FL he would have won.

No realignment, just piss poor turnout on GOP side.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Or vote count suppression. I don’t doubt it could have happened.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Here’s another depressing reality on a very depressing day:

We laugh at Joe Biden but if re-electing Obama after the last 4 years is any indication, he can – and probably will – win if/when he runs in 2016.

Great news, eh?

Republican on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

And what exactly explains Romney drawing fewer voters than even McCain in 2008? That to me is the biggest WTF of this election.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

To me this is where the temptation is to point back to the primaries and say “told ya’ so”. I referred to Romney as the empty sock puppet candidate because I thought him to be more a man of opportunity than values and expressed concern that he could not generate sufficient local enthusiasm to get out the vote in the swing states.

Even though he wasn’t my first or second choice, he got my support and my vote. I thought I was seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and have been hit by the train.

Can I honestly say,though, that one of the other primary candidates would have done better. I wish, but no. I believe that most of the other choices in the field would have shot themselves in the feet far more often and painfully than Romney ever did.

Again, like four years ago, I am hoping the next field is far better than this one was.

firegnome on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Ed was right to be suspect of a D+7 sample given what happened in 2010, but he didn’t account for depressed outcome among GOP voters.
Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 3:43 PM

clearly he skewed up somewhere. I’m really curious to see if he keeps unskewing polls in the future. I’m fairly certain. Ap is done since he’s usually such an Eeyore.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Everyone can hate on Ed and AP, but the entire right wing had two years of polling showing us ahead in enthusiasm and voter ID, so suck it, critics.

blatantblue on November 7, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Who’s hating Ed and AP?

There were three possible outcomes last night – Romney squeaks it out, Romney landslide and obama squeaks it out.

ONE of them came true.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Neither is possible given Exit Poll data. Something is very fishy here.

Norwegian on November 7, 2012 at 3:48 PM

An ocean of fish. Fast@Furious, Benghazi and now thgis. What will be next? Stay tuned for another exiting episode of As The Stomach Turns.

VorDaj on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Seriously considering disconnecting from HA and the political world for quite a while. Possibly for good….

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I’m probably right behind you. I’ve invested way too much time in the bubble here.

Time to cash out of the stock market and get back to my work.

JPeterman on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Me three… Sorry Allah & Ed

Best of Luck

Norwegian on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Oh, and another takeaway (just paraphrasing from a cricket commentator from India)

“Statistics are like bikinis; they reveal a lot but hide the important thing.”

sram on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

The problem for me here was poll selection bias near the end of the campaign. Like Drudge, polls featured here seemed to show only neutral to good news for Mitt Romney (take a bow, Scott Rasmussen). Though nobody here gets ALL their news from this site, that still presented a – I hate to say it – skewed view of the data.

Incidentally, Ohio was D +8 last night.

YYZ on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

I don’t think it’s time yet to throw in the towel. The GOP just has to realize they can no longer run old stiff boring white guys and expect to win elections.

Reagan had charisma. Even Bush in his clumsy way had some. But Romney was a robot.

Anything is possible. Look, a hippy enclave like California re-elected Arnold in a landslide as recently as 2006. You just need the right candidate.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Yes, continue to act like there was no reason to be apprehensive about a D+7 sample given the 2010 midterms. Very intellectually honest of you.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 3:55 PM

it’d be intellectually honest not to expect midterm turnout in a presidential year.

sauldalinsky on November 7, 2012 at 4:00 PM

It won’t matter a whit. Republicans put Lincoln into office and the country went to war over it. Republicans pushed the Civil Rights Act past Dixiecrats, and LBJ took the credit for that. Now suddenly Republicans are supposed to be the slavery-slash-Jim-Crow party and blacks won’t touch them with a ten-foot pole.

Even if they don’t see the “evolution” on amnesty as pandering, Hispanics will still give Obama the credit for legalizing ten million new voters. Then we’ll have a Biden moment with a hot mic picking up “we’ll have those Spics voting for us for two hundred years” and a generation from now no one will remember he said it, and Hispanics will have gone from 70/30 D to 90/10 D.

The Schaef on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

we can have an hispanic running for office, that will make huge diference! RUBIO!

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Every poll showed the enthusiasm on our side, and every article I read about what was happening on the ground reported that our early voting and absentee ballots were out pacing 2008. So what happened on election day? Could it be that the Democrats now just fundamentally outnumber us – so that even enthusiasm/intensity does not matter?

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

When election day came many conservatives simply could not get themselves to go to the poll and vote for the father of Obama Care. They came out and voted against it in 2010. But this time there was no way to vote against it. Mitt was for Obama Care and it’s father after all.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

I don’t think it has to be cheating, although I get the skepticism. That’s gonna have to be explained by the Republican establishment. Our intensity was high. The rallies were huge. Fundraising was beating out even Obama’s. The Paul Ryan VP pick and the first debate energized conservatives. And of course we were all desperate to defeat Obama. So where in the hell were the voters on Election Day?

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 3:32 PM

All that is why it was very easy to believe the polls had to be skewed. NO ONE believed we were looking at a D +6 electorate. It was absurd to believe, based on all the evidence, that he’d closely replicate the split in ’08. And yet, he did.

The fact our side stayed home is the worst part. I don’t get it.

changer1701 on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Sore LOSERS.

sob0728 on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

You mean like Sore/Loserman 2000?

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

picklesgap on November 7, 2012 at 3:30 PM

I’m Cuban American and Cubans most loyal GOP constituency. Bush got 44% of Hispanics in 2004. In 2030, Hispanics will still only make up 16% of the vote. a lot of hispanics in Texas are 3rd and 4th generation and consider themselves white. Texas has only gotten more RED.

The main REASON the GOP lost was the GOP turnout was down 17% from 2008. Not because of the Hispanic vote.

If all you care about is winning and not principles why don’t we just merge the GOP with the Dem party and be done with it? lol

Asians are the fastest growing demographic and they were until recently an overwhelmingly Republican bloc. Voted close to 75% for Bush Sr.

They will make up a larger share of the vote then even Hispanics in 30 years.

Relax.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

There were three possible outcomes last night – Romney squeaks it out, Romney landslide and obama squeaks it out.
ONE of them came true.
Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

actually there were infinite possibilities. A Romney landsides however seems to have been on the more unlikely side.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

one of the things that makes america great is that our diversity brings us strenght. I mean, see spain, they are all white and nearly the same culture and there they are nearly splitting the country for ethnic reasons. we have to embrace latinos, asians and other growing minorities and turn them to conservatives.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

You are a goddamned indoctrinated fool. ‘Multiculturalism’ breeds fratricide.

It was up to those people to assimilate to American culture, which used to be the norm before the 1960s.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Day 1

The House speaker said Republicans would accept “new revenue” – but not higher tax rates – in a broader agreement next year.

Boehner, who spoke to Obama by phone Wednesday morning, has already warned that Republicans will stand firm against raising “tax rates,” including those on wealthy Americans. He noted that during negotiations in 2011, Obama had endorsed tax reform that put the top rates at lower than the current 35 percent.

ha…now I get the Forward thing…

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 7, 2012 at 4:03 PM

clearly he skewed up somewhere. I’m really curious to see if he keeps unskewing polls in the future. I’m fairly certain. Ap is done since he’s usually such an Eeyore.
red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Unskewing was totally appropriate given the knowledge

Use logic: wouldn’t you think republicans were more motivated and democrats were less? Wouldn’t there be more d to r than r to d?

That is a reasonable assumption. D+7 was insane in 2008

Turns out though its not an aberration…. And D++ is here to stay.

GOP is done for 40 years. There’s no path to 270 anymore

picklesgap on November 7, 2012 at 4:03 PM

But Romney was a robot.

Anything is possible. Look, a hippy enclave like California re-elected Arnold in a landslide as recently as 2006. You just need the right candidate.

tkyang99 on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Mitt was fine when he was around his very liberal friends like at the Clinton Initiative.

He was just a robot when pretending to be conservative except at the first debate.

I believe Obama was Mitts choice in reality. He did not seem to me to be the least bit unhappy that he lost. Just an observation.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Incidentally, Ohio was D +8 last night.

YYZ on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Here’s the thing, and Rush is correct: What about the last four years made you want more of it?

Jesus Christ, logic dictates the answer.

However, I believe logic no longer applies.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

changer1701 on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Several million, Evangelical voters stayed home, (yes the Mormon issue)
This may sound controversial, but been hearing a lot of it on twitter especially from big names. Like David Limbaugh.

I don’t know if it’s true, but someone needs to look in to it.

Bottom line is turnout was down 17% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

actually there were infinite possibilities. A Romney landsides however seems to have been on the more unlikely side.

red_herring on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Way to go, Captain Hindsight.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Things will look better without the Lightworker at the top of the ticket, people, I promise you.

Exhibit A: 2010. Exhibit B: 2014.

It’s sad that such a decisive portion of our electorate pays virtually no attention to the goings-on of our Republic, but we knew that going in. We were right to mock him for it in the moment, but Obama knew what he was doing sitting down for his hard hitting interviews with The View and People.

HitNRun on November 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM

I think I know what to blame for the loss:

It all goes back to Bush, not that the media hated him because that’s natural but because he never fought back…It allowed the notion to sink in that he really was THAT horrible and it’s hurt the GOP brand and candidates in the last two Presidential elections immensely.

Moral of the story is we need to FIGHT BACK and fight fire with fire in the court of public opinion. I like Romney and think he ran a dignified campaign and should’ve been elected BUT it’s not enough and it’s a losing strategy to rise above it in this day and age. Cultural things like the war on woman bullshit and big bird,etc depresses our turnout and increases their base…the time has come.

Keep our ideology and positions but knock them the F out when it comes to aggressive campaigning and the pop cultural issues that come up…it’s the only way forward. Politics ain’t beanbags is the truth!

jaygatz33 on November 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Seriously considering disconnecting from HA and the political world for quite a while. Possibly for good….

John_Locke on November 7, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I’m probably right behind you. I’ve invested way too much time in the bubble here.

Time to cash out of the stock market and get back to my work.

JPeterman on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Me three… Sorry Allah & Ed

Best of Luck

Norwegian on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

I will be keeping an eye on things here and dropping in every once in a while, but, I’m pretty much out, too.

It’s going to take a lot of time and effort to prepare for what’s coming.

trigon on November 7, 2012 at 4:07 PM

That bothers me as well. Every poll showed the enthusiasm on our side, and every article I read about what was happening on the ground reported that our early voting and absentee ballots were out pacing 2008. So what happened on election day? Could it be that the Democrats now just fundamentally outnumber us – so that even enthusiasm/intensity does not matter?

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Like I said earlier in the thread, I accept that Obama got more votes than Romney. If the Dems outnumber us, so be it. We can get to work on chipping away at that. But I refuse to just accept that Romney somehow lost 2 million McCain voters in an electoral climate like this. No way in hell. Unless there is a specific reason(his Mormon faith, his flip-flops, his wealth, his Northeastern roots), I fear we’ll be unable to figure out what went wrong this time so we can remedy it in 2016.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 4:07 PM

There are about 20 million people who were alive in 2008 that are dead now.

There are about 20 million new voters who couldn’t vote in 2008 that can now, and increasingly they’re members of groups that vote Democrats by wide margins.

I thought the overwhelmingly negative fundamentals would push Romney to victory. The fact that Obama won re-election with maybe the worst record in modern history is a very scary thing.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Is there a Troll Repellent Spray made?

kingsjester on November 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Or vote count suppression. I don’t doubt it could have happened.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Possible too.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM

People thought they were voting for Romney and the voting machines changed it to Obama. Here in Colorado, the republicans were leading early voting and should have won on the 6th. How did Obama end up winning Colorado by 5 points? There was just so much more excitement this time around than there was for McCain. It has to be cheating.

peakspike on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Colorado is a mystery indeed. We’re leading the early vote – then we wind up getting whacked on election day? It’s either one of two things: (1) some kind of fraud making votes disappear; (2) we were cannibalizing our vote during the early voting process.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 4:08 PM

I think you all underestimate the power of the media.

All despots do not control the media first for no reason.

Fox isn’t that right leaning and even they have been marginalized. Slowly left purges non lefties from media and academia.

GardenGnome on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

It is ironic that Mr. Electable ended up being done in by the polls in the end. Next time, I have a novel idea. Try nominating a actual conservative. In the modern era, when conservatives run, they win every time (Reagan twice, W twice). When RINOs run, they almost always lose (Dole, McCain, Bush 1992) with the only RINO win coming in 1988 off of Reagan’s coattails.

sauldalinsky on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

BS

The Marxist worms his way by in FL, OH, VA, and CO as Romney gets less votes in those states than McCain got in 2008. This in a year when republican enthusiasm is at an all time high. I smell vote count fraud. Can’t prove it but come on.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

you too? we broke records for lines in a state that isn’t a swing state at all and we wake up to find voting dropped by 14 million for a 12% drop? Remember when we used to hear votes in certain precints amounted to 15% more than registered voters? I think they’ve found a new way to cheat.

DanMan on November 7, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I’m not one for conspiracy theories, but more electronic voting yields more opportunity for untraceable cheating. At least some of the Diebold machines use unencrypted Access databases, which do not necessarily produce an audit trail of record deletion (depending upon the table structure). All it takes is a simple SQL statement to delete or modify records, and there is no persistent transaction log to check. Safeguards can be built in by good designers, but are they? I honestly do not know.

Couple that with the fact that the fox is guarding the hen house in some cases since unions control the setup and maintenance of machines in some states, and you have a means, motive, and opportunity.

I’m not saying it happened. I’m saying it is possible given the technology used.

stvnscott on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

When election day came many conservatives simply could not get themselves to go to the poll and vote for the father of Obama Care. They came out and voted against it in 2010. But this time there was no way to vote against it. Mitt was for Obama Care and it’s father after all.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

steve, its was not obamacare but the lack of credibility romney had generally with his flip flops.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:11 PM

And what exactly explains Romney drawing fewer voters than even McCain in 2008? That to me is the biggest WTF of this election.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

That bothers me as well. Every poll showed the enthusiasm on our side, and every article I read about what was happening on the ground reported that our early voting and absentee ballots were out pacing 2008. So what happened on election day? Could it be that the Democrats now just fundamentally outnumber us – so that even enthusiasm/intensity does not matter?

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 3:57 PM

It’s simple really. You rely too much on a group that is closer to death…more of them die than become new republican voters, the left relies on the new 50K latinos who turn 18 every month, other growing segments of the population. Duh.

so yeah, enthusiasm of 6 out 10 ppl, means nothing when you are compared to 6 to 1000 when your success is measured by the total of 1000 vs 10. Get it?

You just got nuked dude….

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 7, 2012 at 4:13 PM

The funniest thing about Gallup was that their registered voter poll was once again right on the money. This happened last year too where their Likely Voter model was garbage but the RV figure nailed it. Everyone should remember that during the next cycle.

Typhonsentra on November 7, 2012 at 4:14 PM

People who are wondering where the lost votes McCain got in 2008 went:

They died. Roughly 5 million McCain voters from 2008 are dead now.

It was the independents who stayed home. The luster of hope and change gone, they just didn’t turn out.

Romney won the ones that showed up, but it turns out the GOP base isn’t big enough to counterbalance the Dems anymore, even with a lead in enthusiasm and independents.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:15 PM

we have to embrace latinos, asians and other growing minorities and turn them to conservatives.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:58 PM

We have to embrace all sorts of people and turn them to conservatives.

alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

You are a goddamned indoctrinated fool. ‘Multiculturalism’ breeds fratricide.

It was up to those people to assimilate to American culture, which used to be the norm before the 1960s.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:03 PM

so, push for laws that grant amnesty but require english tests and other cultural tests. latinos are not muslims by the way, they can integrate well.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

We have to embrace all sorts of people and turn them to conservatives.

alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

very true!

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

It is ironic that Mr. Electable ended up being done in by the polls in the end. Next time, I have a novel idea. Try nominating a actual conservative. In the modern era, when conservatives run, they win every time (Reagan twice, W twice). When RINOs run, they almost always lose (Dole, McCain, Bush 1992) with the only RINO win coming in 1988 off of Reagan’s coattails.

sauldalinsky on November 7, 2012 at 4:09 PM

I imagine the demand for a bonafide fiscal conservative will be immense in the 2016 primaries. Hell, it was there this year. The base did not want Mitt Romney. We eventually settled on him and embraced him, but his primary victory had more to do with the lousy competition than with his qualifications.

The one good thing going in 2016 is that we do have a deep bench. Allen West’s loss likely takes him out of the running, but Rubio, Walker, Jindal, Martinez, and Ryan could all take a shot at it and the base would rally around any one of them.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

We have to embrace all sorts of people and turn them to conservatives.

alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Even nathor.

kingsjester on November 7, 2012 at 4:17 PM

As a young college kid with a part-time job, it is quite saddening how many leeches and “pro-Santa Claus” voters there are in society. I really thought CO would go for Romney and complement narrow wins in FL, OH, and VA, but it seems too many of our fellow citizens have been effectively brainwashed by the liberal premise of how America should be: rob Peter to pay Paul and everyone becomes happy.

I just hope the GOP nominates an enthusiasm-generating conservative in 2016, but I’m probably wishing for too much.

Aizen on November 7, 2012 at 4:17 PM

People who are wondering where the lost votes McCain got in 2008 went:

They died. Roughly 5 million McCain voters from 2008 are dead now.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:15 PM

You cannot look at statistics like that. The dead ones were replaced with current retirees who still vote Republican. The rise in the share of the electorate that is hispanic is of interest, but it is not accurate to say your voters are dying off. It is well-documented that people change affiliation over the course of their lives and they continue to do so, that hasn’t changed.

alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 4:18 PM

I’m going into self imposed exile for a while.

ted c on November 7, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Thanks partly to me; there is a brand new S&W MP 15-22 sitting on my shop table, just got it this morning.

Bishop on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Where did you pick yours up? I’m in the market for that exact weapon.

Washington Nearsider on November 7, 2012 at 4:19 PM

it’d be intellectually honest not to expect midterm turnout in a presidential year.

sauldalinsky on November 7, 2012 at 4:00 PM

It’s intellectually honest to expect Obama’s turnout to mimic 2008?

Sure it is, buddy.

So much for coattails. Overall turnout in general was wayyyy down from 08.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 4:19 PM

The one good thing going in 2016 is that we do have a deep bench. Allen West’s loss likely takes him out of the running, but Rubio, Walker, Jindal, Martinez, and Ryan could all take a shot at it and the base would rally around any one of them.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Other than Walker there’s not a damn one of those I care for.

bgibbs1000 on November 7, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Liberals are usually more educated and smarter as a group compared to Conservatives. Other hand, Cons have big balls…Not always appropriate.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 7, 2012 at 3:40 PM

You party only wins elections because of the parasite class… Without the parasites you will lose every national election for President and Congress… Thank you Shaniqua…

Also regarding the educated liberals and smarter liberals most of them are educated in meaningless liberal arts majors that do not require an IQ higher than 100 to get it…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:20 PM

You are a goddamned indoctrinated fool. ‘Multiculturalism’ breeds fratricide.

It was up to those people to assimilate to American culture, which used to be the norm before the 1960s.

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 4:03 PM

You’re exactly the kind of dinosaur who’s thinking caused this major catastrophe for you guys last night.

You just don’t get it – you’re not smart enough to.

HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:21 PM

Several million, Evangelical voters stayed home, (yes the Mormon issue)
This may sound controversial, but been hearing a lot of it on twitter especially from big names. Like David Limbaugh.

I don’t know if it’s true, but someone needs to look in to it.

Bottom line is turnout was down 17% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

That’s just incomprehensible to me. They chose four more years of this pos because Romney is a Mormon?!? It’s so incredibly frustrating to invest so much time and energy (and money) into your side only to be stabbed in the back.

changer1701 on November 7, 2012 at 4:22 PM

You cannot look at statistics like that. The dead ones were replaced with current retirees who still vote Republican. The rise in the share of the electorate that is hispanic is of interest, but it is not accurate to say your voters are dying off. It is well-documented that people change affiliation over the course of their lives and they continue to do so, that hasn’t changed.

alwaysfiredup on November 7, 2012 at 4:18 PM

It’s percentages. A higher percentage of traditional GOP voters passed away, and a higher percentage of Dem coalition voters are now of voting age.

We’ve been nearing a tipping point for a while, where even independents, an enthusiasm gap can’t overcome the Dem base if they turnout.

I didn’t think it would happen this year, in this economy, but it did.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:22 PM

latinos are not muslims by the way, they can integrate well.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:16 PM

sheesh, and their only second to asians in landscaping?

socalcon on November 7, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Does GumbyandPokey have a website we can monitor for the 2014 election cycle?

Because he was 100% right.

portlandon on November 7, 2012 at 3:47 PM

No he wasn’t. Remember his BS about how the jobs report was an “atomic bomb”?

His MO was to keep throwing crap against the wall, hoping to be proven right, and unfortunately, he ended up being right once, about Christie’s stupid slobbering over 0dumba regarding Sandy.

Anti-Control on November 7, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Your turnout was way down dudes and no, they didn’t all die from 2008. Certainly – lest you forget – you won commanding victories in 2010 – historic ones – it was a complete ass trouncing for the Dims in 2010.

Country didn’t change in two years folks. That many GOP voters didn’t just “die”.

The problem was “enthusiasm” – it wasn’t there no matter what the polls told you. The GOP took the elections of 2010 and squandered them – they completely “tamed” and “caged” the Tea Part freshmen and got them to go along with this “rope a dope” strategy that Boehner and McConnell use to handle Obama and Reid.

No one’s interested in throwing good money after bad. Until you ditch the old guard that caused the financial collapse in 2007 – you will not win elections.

You need a brand new party – you need to tear down the GOP and rebuild it without these establishment POS’s.

HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:26 PM

All good things and such…

Lanceman on November 7, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Problem is, Obama is promising us a new and better America. Is that going to come to an end?

The Nerve on November 7, 2012 at 4:26 PM

It’s percentages. A higher percentage of traditional GOP voters passed away, and a higher percentage of Dem coalition voters are now of voting age.

We’ve been nearing a tipping point for a while

Yeah, well, that might be good news for Medicare and Social Security…although the Dem coalition voters won’t be wage earners.

socalcon on November 7, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Several million, Evangelical voters stayed home, (yes the Mormon issue)This may sound controversial, but been hearing a lot of it on twitter especially from big names. Like David Limbaugh.

I don’t know if it’s true, but someone needs to look in to it.

Bottom line is turnout was down 17% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:05 PM

This is the heart of analyzing this elections… Where and Who are the Missing 3 millions McCain voters? Yes those are the Evangelical voters who did not want to vote for the Mormon guy… They may be a small part of the Evangelical total vote but they were significant enough to cause Romney defeat…

No one would have ever thought that Romney is going to get less votes than McCain. Obama was expected to lose millions of his votes from 2008 and he lost 9-10 millions of them indeed but no one anticipated Romney getting less votes than McCain… Therefore the D+7 polling averages was very suspect because we anticipated a huge loss from Obama 2008 voters but we did not anticipate any loss from the McCain voters… The D+7 polls averaging sample came more like a FLUKE than anything else…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:28 PM

So much for coattails. Overall turnout in general was wayyyy down from 08.

Good Solid B-Plus on November 7, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Someone needs to explain this to me. Where I came from 65 to 70% of the electorate always comes out to vote no matter what and 15% of those who don’t are the ones who still want the old Communist ways back and have refused and or are unable to assimilate to freedom.

Why?

JPeterman on November 7, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Everyone is slamming on conservatives who said this wasn’t like the ’08 election. IT WASN’T like the ’08 election. Obama only pulled Kerry numbers last night; that’s down 15%!

So how did we come all this way to pull 5% less than McCain ’08?

The Schaef on November 7, 2012 at 3:53 PM

It looks like there are mainly 2 options: Obama is Cheaty McCheaterson-Cheater Cheatz The Cheater The 3rd or the proof is in the poll pudding. Romney was a fool for conceding before he was certain Cheaty McCheaterson didn’t cheat, but then again, even voicing a concern makes you out to be a tinfoil hat nutter and all…

The Nerve on November 7, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Your turnout was way down dudes and no, they didn’t all die from 2008. Certainly – lest you forget – you won commanding victories in 2010 – historic ones – it was a complete ass trouncing for the Dims in 2010.

Heh, I know this is ‘left coast’ and all, but last night (early) on the radio the Ca GOP guy (some doofus) was saying that historically, Dems show up for the Presidentials amd not necesarily the off years–so don’t get amped up (last night) too early about turnout.

Now, if that message could get to the RNC, we run the strong candidate for house/senate in the off years to handcuff the Lefty POTUSes to come.

socalcon on November 7, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Your turnout was way down dudes and no, they didn’t all die from 2008. Certainly – lest you forget – you won commanding victories in 2010 – historic ones – it was a complete ass trouncing for the Dims in 2010.

HondaV65 on November 7, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Turnout was way higher in 2012 than 2010.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:32 PM

So how did we come all this way to pull 5% less than McCain ’08?

The Schaef on November 7, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Well, during the Franken debacle in Minnesota, it was boxes full of ballots in trunks of precinct workers cars.

socalcon on November 7, 2012 at 4:34 PM

embrace immigration reform and amnesty. do it or it will be truly rammed down your throats sooner or latter.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 3:50 PM

CNN is estimating that Latinos, about whom we will be hearing so much, cast just 10% (probably high) of the vote in 2012—vs. 72% for whites. Romney reportedly got 27% of Hispanics, which is at the low end of the long-established traditional GOP range. But note the high end is only 40% i.e. the difference is just over one percent of the overall votes cast.

From those stats I’d say pursuing the Hispanic vote is the low return option, but Hispandering has worked out so well for the GOP so far, so I say stick with it.

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 4:34 PM

And what exactly explains Romney drawing fewer voters than even McCain in 2008? That to me is the biggest WTF of this election.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 3:29 PM

As a matter of fact if Romney had gotten only all McCain voters to the polls we would have won

Just think how depressing this is

OrthodoxJew on November 7, 2012 at 4:35 PM

I think Romney will finish with more votes than McCain had. There are still millions of votes that have not yet been counted. The same thing happened in 2008 — over 10 million votes counted post-election day.

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Unless there’s some sort of reboot of the GOP (like going more to the middle on social issues) I think it’s going to be the new normal.

Essentially, most of America will be like a Republican running in a blue state. The Democrat will usually win unless there’s some sort of scandal or the Democrat running is especially bad and the Republican running is especially gifted.

We now live in a center-left country, at least when it comes to social issues. My advice is let’s find what parts of the conservative agenda that’s palatable enough to win elections and go from there rather than continuing to fail on the same platform.

BradTank on November 7, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Hypothesis: If Democrats can muster that sort of advantage even in the worst of times (albeit with heavy GOTV help from Obama’s superb organization), then the GOP’s starting each election in the near term in a hole.

Yep. The fact that Romney won independents and the enthusiasm gap and STILL lost is a bad, bad sign.

The Dem coalition is finally strong enough to overcome all other fundamentals.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 3:53 PM

What about John Kerry? The Dems tried to make some sort of enthusiasm argument for how he was going to win, and he stunk tremendously in the election itself.

The Nerve on November 7, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Bottom line is you can’t blame Romney imo…he could’ve done somethings differently sure but he did better than the GOP in general…Bush is still unfortunately killing us with what was supposedly the #1 issue…people still blame him more than Obama. Nobody else in the GOP primary field would’ve done any better either on that and that’s not Mitt’s fault.

So the economy wasn’t as big of a winner as we thought because of that and they pulled the objectively idiotic War on Woman and Big Bird BS and it got their base going and depressed swing voters…

Solution for both of those fundamental problems for us is we need to be more aggressive at all turns and fight fire with fire. These BS cultural things are things that actually get people to show up and vote…we can’t let them go unanswered anymore…we need to to take it to them just as hard and bury them. It’s the only effective way forward imo.

jaygatz33 on November 7, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Incidentally, Ohio was D +8 last night.

YYZ on November 7, 2012 at 3:59 PM

This is why this whole election just doesn’t sit right. As someone who was born and raised in Ohio and still has deep roots in the state, I know for a fact that Ohio is not a D+8 state. It’s just not and the auto bailouts didn’t do squat for Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 7, 2012 at 4:39 PM

This is the heart of analyzing this elections… Where and Who are the Missing 3 millions McCain voters? Yes those are the Evangelical voters who did not want to vote for the Mormon guy… They may be a small part of the Evangelical total vote but they were significant enough to cause Romney defeat…

No one would have ever thought that Romney is going to get less votes than McCain. Obama was expected to lose millions of his votes from 2008 and he lost 9-10 millions of them indeed but no one anticipated Romney getting less votes than McCain… Therefore the D+7 polling averages was very suspect because we anticipated a huge loss from Obama 2008 voters but we did not anticipate any loss from the McCain voters… The D+7 polls averaging sample came more like a FLUKE than anything else…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Yes all this nonsensical talk about a permanent realignment is bunk. Bottom line is if Romney got McCain turnout (just McCain turnout) he would be President Elect right now.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:39 PM

This is why this whole election just doesn’t sit right. As someone who was born and raised in Ohio and still has deep roots in the state, I know for a fact that Ohio is not a D+8 state. It’s just not and the auto bailouts didn’t do squat for Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 7, 2012 at 4:39 PM

It was D+8 because turnout was down by close to 20% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:40 PM

This is why this whole election just doesn’t sit right. As someone who was born and raised in Ohio and still has deep roots in the state, I know for a fact that Ohio is not a D+8 state. It’s just not and the auto bailouts didn’t do squat for Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 7, 2012 at 4:39 PM

It was D+8 because turnout was down by close to 20% from 2008….among the GOP

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:41 PM

steve, its was not obamacare but the lack of credibility romney had generally with his flip flops.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Oh yes it was. 2010 no doubt about Obama Care.

But exit polls said 60% opposed Obama Care had Romney got those votes landslide. But he is for Obama Care so he did not get them.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 4:42 PM

AngusMc on November 7, 2012 at 4:36 PM

the only outstanding votes are out of CA. There is 0% chance Romney will add even close to enough votes to catch McCain pace in FL, VA, OH

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:43 PM

Turnout was way higher LOWER in 2012 than 2010.

BadgerHawk on November 7, 2012 at 4:32 PM

FIFY. If Romney got as many votes as McShame did in 2008, in OH, FL, VA, it would be president elect Romney.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:46 PM

It was D+8 because turnout was down by close to 20% from 2008….among the GOP

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:41 PM

You know what will fix that in 2016. Let’s run a moderate Republican. That’s sure to get out the vote! lol

DFCtomm on November 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

When election day came many conservatives simply could not get themselves to go to the poll and vote for the father of Obama Care. They came out and voted against it in 2010. But this time there was no way to vote against it. Mitt was for Obama Care and it’s father after all.

Steveangell on November 7, 2012 at 4:01 PM

steve, its was not obamacare but the lack of credibility romney had generally with his flip flops.

nathor on November 7, 2012 at 4:11 PM

You both a full of it! You knew all of that, and yet you elected him. The more you believe your own crap, the left wins.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

One thing is for sure – the Democrats proved they can win by running a completely negative, cynical, base turnout election, that does not address any of the days important issues:
1. Demonization and character assassination of your opponent.
2. Give away free stuff to different groups.
3. Cynically play the race card at every opportunity.
4. Demagogue issues that apply to different groups: immigration, welfare, War on Women, etc.

TarheelBen on November 7, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Sorry, can’t resist one final comment:

No one would have ever thought that Romney is going to get less votes than McCain. Obama was expected to lose millions of his votes from 2008 and he lost 9-10 millions of them indeed but no one anticipated Romney getting less votes than McCain… Therefore the D+7 polling averages was very suspect because we anticipated a huge loss from Obama 2008 voters but we did not anticipate any loss from the McCain voters… The D+7 polls averaging sample came more like a FLUKE than anything else…

mnjg on November 7, 2012 at 4:28 PM

No one? NO ONE? Lots of us “could have thought” that very thing, but we were all hooted down as “trolls” and “O-bots” and “OWSers” and “dirty commie bastards” and the like. There’s no friggin’ “realignment”, just as it’s no mystery why McCain got more votes than Romney did this time around. As to the first, the electorate just didn’t have a stark-enough choice. A lot of us have been saying that for years now as regards a Romney nomination. As to the McCain-Romney differential, think: Sarah Palin.

Now the same geniuses who thought that whoring after indies was the way to victory are urging the GOP to go whoring and pandering after some other balkanized sliver of the electorate. The idiocy never ends. The GOP is either going to become a truly conservative party based on principle, or it’s going to go the way of the Whigs from which it sprang in the first place. Period. And with that I’m outta here.

ddrintn on November 7, 2012 at 4:49 PM

JPeterman on November 7, 2012 at 4:30 PM

I gave my opinion upthread, but here it is again…. Several million, Evangelical voters stayed home, (yes the Mormon issue)This may sound controversial, but been hearing a lot of it on twitter especially from big names. Like David Limbaugh.

I don’t know if it’s true, but someone needs to look in to it.

Bottom line is turnout was down 17% from 2008.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 7, 2012 at 4:49 PM

My first peek inside HA since 6pm Tuesday. Was it bloody?

Limerick on November 7, 2012 at 4:50 PM

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