Final Politico/GWU Battleground poll shows Romney up 15 with independents

posted at 10:41 am on November 6, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Going into the final stretch of Election Day, we’ll see at least a couple of pollsters giving us their final look at the electorate.  Politico leads with its Battleground poll result showing a dead heat at 47% nationally,  with Barack Obama up six over Mitt Romney in their swing-state subgroups, 49/43.  That may be the last piece of good news for Obama in this poll, however:

The final POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — conducted Sunday and Monday — shows Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama each claiming 47 percent nationally.

Our previous poll, conducted Monday through Thursday of last week, found the race tied at 48 percent. Although Romney and Obama have each led at times, the two candidates have stayed within the margin of error since the spring.

Independents break for Romney by 15 points, 47 percent to 32 percent.

Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Obama leads 49 percent to 43 percent.

That’s at least three national polls in the final week that have showed Romney up by double digits among independents.  Most of them show Obama in the 30s, a very bad place for an incumbent President to be in the final day before the election.  Obama won the 2008 election by seven points while winning this demographic by eight.  So how can he be tied with Romney — and how can Obama be six points ahead in theswing states while tied nationally?

The first hint comes in the 2008 presidential vote question.  The split in the vote in this sample is 50/40 Obama, which understates John McCain’s vote by six full points.  Interestingly, independents in this group give Obama a ten-point lead in 2008, too, slightly higher than in the actual election — which negates the idea that these independents are proto-Republicans (only 36% say they voted for McCain).  It’s a D+3 sample, but only after allocating leaners, 43/40/17.  Based on the 2008 election recap, the leaners look as though they may have been a little more Democratic four years ago.

Let’s take a look at some of the other internals.  The 15-point deficit among independents doesn’t look like a fluke; Obama’s job approval among them is 41/51.  The overall poll also shows the gender gap neutralized, with Romney leading men by 16 points (55/39) and Obama winning women by 15 (55/40).  Sixty percent of the sample are married voters, and Romney has a 17-point lead, 56/39, among them.

As far as the split between supposedly ‘competitive’ states, as Politico calls them, and the national numbers, that seems inexplicable.  This swing-state analysis derives from subgroups of the overall poll, though, so the MoE is wider and the confidence level lower.  Mitt Romney actually has a lead among the 40 supposedly non-competitive states, 49/46, that’s narrower than Obama’s six point lead among the ten competitive states.  It’s curious, but that’s all.

If I’m a Republican presidential candidate with a 15-point lead among independents and a neutralized gender gap, I’m pretty confident of the outcome.  We’ll certainly see soon enough, but here’s one last piece of data:

The potentially more important number is a combination nationally of those who have already voted and those who call themselves “extremely likely” to vote. Romney leads this group by 3 percent, 51 percent to 48 percent.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

How is stuff like even allowed?

https://twitter.com/Timodc/status/265845658798419969/photo/1

wargamer6 on November 6, 2012 at 11:12 AM

That could backfire. /hopes

Fish on November 6, 2012 at 11:34 AM

How’d you vote on the proposals if you don’t mind me asking.

I was:

Yes-1

No-2

No-3

No-4

Yes-5

Yes-6

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Yes for 1, no for 2-6 for me…..straight Repub. ticket, and no on the tax for the Comm. College.

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 11:35 AM

It would be SWEET if Obama lost Illinois while playing pick up basketball… be still me beating heart…

Khun Joe on November 6, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I found the unenthusiastic Democratic voters.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

What do you all mean with the word “trollcott”?

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

How’d you vote on the proposals if you don’t mind me asking.

I was:

Yes-1

No-2

No-3

No-4

Yes-5

Yes-6

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Ditto. 6 was the only one I kinda waffled on, not a big Matty fan…..but even less of a fan of his opponents.

Northwoods on November 6, 2012 at 11:38 AM

If that GMU data is correct and 20% of indies responded undecided along with 24% “soft Dem” and 15% of “ticket splitters”, then this is going to be a HUGE break to Romney.

crosspatch on November 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

What do you all mean with the word “trollcott”?

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:36 AM

It’s a suggestion to summon up some will power and not respond to the moronic garbage that trolls post. At the very, very least, please don’t copy and paste their posts and thereby double their reach.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

MI voter here, too, straight GOP although I marked each race individually, rather than the straight ticket option at the top. I voted FOR Prop 1, 5 and 6. NO on the union proposals 2 and 4, and NO on the phony green energy mandate proposal 3.

The bridge vote (6) took me a long time to figure out what that was all about. Apparently the pols don’t like a privately owned bridge, so they want to spend billions building a new bridge to Canada from the detroit area a few miles down river. We don’t need it, so voting yes on 6 mandates that they can’t build any bridges to Canada without approval state wide by the voters.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 AM

It’s a suggestion to summon up some will power and not respond to the moronic garbage that trolls post. At the very, very least, please don’t copy and paste their posts and thereby double their reach.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

but what does the COTT part mean from trollcott?

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Virtual tide!

Norky on November 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

If that GMU data is correct and 20% of indies responded undecided along with 24% “soft Dem” and 15% of “ticket splitters”, then this is going to be a HUGE break to Romney.

crosspatch on November 6, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Here in MI, the polls showed a +1 Mitt yet a +15 Stabenow (D-Sen)
That is a lot of splitting

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 11:44 AM

but what does the COTT part mean from trollcott?

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Think boycott.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:44 AM

The bridge vote (6) took me a long time to figure out what that was all about. Apparently the pols don’t like a privately owned bridge, so they want to spend billions building a new bridge to Canada from the detroit area a few miles down river. We don’t need it, so voting yes on 6 mandates that they can’t build any bridges to Canada without approval state wide by the voters.

Google Matty Maroun and you’ll get more on the bridge issue. He owns the Ambassador bridge and wants to build a 2nd span. The State doesn’t want him to own both….so they and Canada were going to build one after blocking him from building his.

Matty’s not the cleanest guy out there, can be pretty ruthless….but he’s been treated like crap by the State too. They’d all be better off working together but neither wants to budge.

Northwoods on November 6, 2012 at 11:45 AM

The bridge vote (6) took me a long time to figure out what that was all about. Apparently the pols don’t like a privately owned bridge, so they want to spend billions building a new bridge to Canada from the detroit area a few miles down river. We don’t need it, so voting yes on 6 mandates that they can’t build any bridges to Canada without approval state wide by the voters.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 AM

The problem is that it is essentially a monopoly right now. The existing bridge is a mess for traffic on both sides. Canada has agreed to fund the bridge and be paid back through tolls (traffic on that side of the border is horrible)

I just don’t like any of those pet issues being enshrined in the state constitution.

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Looking good in Iowa:

Obama is doing worse than John Kerry, who lost the state in 2004 to George W. Bush, in early voting.

Romney has less of a deficit to overcome in Iowa on Election Day than either John McCain and George W. Bush in 2008 and 2004, respectively. Republicans have closed the registration gap with Democrats. Romney leads among independents in Iowa. And all of the state’s major newspapers — even those that endorsed Obama in 2008 — have endorsed the former Governor.

The Des Moines Register, whose final 2008 poll predicted Obama winning by 17 — 7.5 points higher than the actual outcome, has Obama up by five in its final 2012 poll.

But the poll — like many that have Obama ahead — assumes Democrats will have a greater partisan advantage than they did in 2008, when enthusiasm for Obama was at its peak. Then, Democrats had a one-point advantage at the polls. In 2012, Republicans had a four-point advantage.

Polls that have a reasonable partisan breakdown — like ARG’s poll with a D +1 sample — have Romney in the lead or tied.

“He will again under-perform his Iowa polling, where he has yet to come close to the 50 percent mark in any survey of polling averages,” top Romney strategist David Kochel wrote.

Nicole Coulter on November 6, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Charles County

firegnome on November 6, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Waldorfian? If so, you have my condolences…

It’ll be interesting to see how that matches up with reports from PG and MoCo. Although I’m guessing if you’re deep blue then where you are is more of a PG spillover area.

PetecminMd on November 6, 2012 at 11:49 AM

How’d you vote on the proposals if you don’t mind me asking.

I was:

Yes-1

No-2

No-3

No-4

Yes-5

Yes-6

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Yes for 1, no for 2-6 for me…..straight Repub. ticket, and no on the tax for the Comm. College.

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Same Same… Yes on 1, No 2-6.

But, I live in MaComb and had 4 other proposals…Millages to vote for. So that was fun having to circle in bubbles for
10 proposals after wading through a slew of non-partisan elections.

Varchild on November 6, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Hmmmm

@CarrieNBCNEws Surprise! Biden’s wheels down in Cleveland for unannounced stop.

Yeah, I am sure Ohio is a “lock” for Obama…LOL

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Votes YES on Fire/Police millages….NO on the Comm College.

(MICHIGAN)

Varchild on November 6, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Saw that this AM. Line down to -275 – EXTREMELY BAD sign for Obama

But hey, I am sure those European oddsmakers are superior /sarc

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Please provide link…..currently it is -400 Obama/ +300 Romney. The odds have increased dramatically for Obama this last week. You may have betters playing the “other side” of the bet for a 100% guaranteed payout if they bet on Obama last week. I do not think the media releases exit polls before the polls close anymore. I am not sure what new info could come to light that might change the odds at this point.

ZippyZ on November 6, 2012 at 11:54 AM

Here in MI, the polls showed a +1 Mitt yet a +15 Stabenow (D-Sen)
That is a lot of splitting

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I don’t understand these ticket splitting voters. Stabenow’s ads were so full of lies. I hate that woman because she is such a liar. AND she voted lock step with Harry Reid. What is wrong with these people?

Regarding this bridge, as a firm free enterprise, small government type, who cares if that bridge is privately owned? The traffic approaches are appalling because on the MI side, the state has not connected the ramps because of this stalemate. On the Canadian side, it makes no sense to drive MILES through a neighborhood before one gets to a real highway again.

Just because the traffic is stupid on both sides of the bridge is no reason to build a new one in another location with taxpayer money. If the tolls don’t make up the cost of the bonds to build the bridge, the MI taxpayers have to make up the difference. I have crossed at the Ambassador bridge as well as over in Port Huron. I don’t remember there being that much of a difference in the tolls. I got across sooner at the Detroit side when I last crossed. Heading to Canada from Grand Rapids, it really doesn’t make a difference which bridge to take when one is heading towards Toronto. I usually take the Port Huron route just because it is so much prettier at the bridge there. However, the border wait times always seem to be longer there.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:57 AM

firegnome on November 6, 2012 at 11:32 AM

PetecminMd on November 6, 2012 at 11:49 AM

“Taking out the garbage” for America in Ellicott City tonight, a much more red area of MD, but there are libs aplenty nearby in Columbia. Voting no on Questions 4-7, too.

My wife teaches in Montgomery Co. If R&R emerge victorious, I can’t wait to hear about all the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

adoubledot on November 6, 2012 at 12:01 PM

I don’t understand these ticket splitting voters. Stabenow’s ads were so full of lies. I hate that woman because she is such a liar. AND she voted lock step with Harry Reid. What is wrong with these people?

Regarding this bridge, as a firm free enterprise, small government type, who cares if that bridge is privately owned? The traffic approaches are appalling because on the MI side, the state has not connected the ramps because of this stalemate. On the Canadian side, it makes no sense to drive MILES through a neighborhood before one gets to a real highway again.

Just because the traffic is stupid on both sides of the bridge is no reason to build a new one in another location with taxpayer money. If the tolls don’t make up the cost of the bonds to build the bridge, the MI taxpayers have to make up the difference. I have crossed at the Ambassador bridge as well as over in Port Huron. I don’t remember there being that much of a difference in the tolls. I got across sooner at the Detroit side when I last crossed. Heading to Canada from Grand Rapids, it really doesn’t make a difference which bridge to take when one is heading towards Toronto. I usually take the Port Huron route just because it is so much prettier at the bridge there. However, the border wait times always seem to be longer there.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I do not get the appeal of Stabenow either. Met here when she was a state rep. Not very bright, but then the republican party has a history of running losers……

The toll is cheaper at Port Huron btw. Maroun pulled a lot of crap over the last several years….building without permits, blocking off access to a park etc., it is not the private ownership but the monopoly that he has in the detroit area. (The tunnel is not an option for trucks. Canada is really pushing for the new span location……they already have all the land cleared.

Animal60 on November 6, 2012 at 12:07 PM

“Taking out the garbage” for America in Ellicott City tonight, a much more red area of MD, but there are libs aplenty nearby in Columbia. Voting no on Questions 4-7, too.

My wife teaches in Montgomery Co. If R&R emerge victorious, I can’t wait to hear about all the weeping and gnashing of teeth.

adoubledot on November 6, 2012 at 12:01 PM

I’m EC too, did likewise at 7am. I’m afraid that won’t change the color of our state however.

SomeCallMeJohn on November 6, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Bmore on November 6, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’m in Georgia too and we have always had a person sitting near the exit collecting the cards. I don’t think it is a problem.

I’m in Gwinnett Co.

Barred on November 6, 2012 at 12:13 PM

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Voed the same as you, except no on 6. We need that bridge, the current Canadian deal is a good one & I’m not gonna let Matty Moron block it.

8 weight on November 6, 2012 at 12:16 PM

We don’t need it, so voting yes on 6 mandates that they can’t build any bridges to Canada without approval state wide by the voters.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Karen we do need that bridge badly. Have you driven I-75 thru Detroilet lately and seen the truck backups?

8 weight on November 6, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Karen we do need that bridge badly. Have you driven I-75 thru Detroilet lately and seen the truck backups?

8 weight on November 6, 2012 at 12:18 PM

I agree we need the bridge, I’d rather Matty pay for it is all. I know the promises are that the State/CA proposal will cost taxpayers nothing but haven’t we all heard that story before?

Northwoods on November 6, 2012 at 12:21 PM

This morning I saw two crows on the same phone pole.

Bad sign for Romney.

BobMbx on November 6, 2012 at 12:38 PM

I agree we need the bridge, I’d rather Matty pay for it is all. I know the promises are that the State/CA proposal will cost taxpayers nothing but haven’t we all heard that story before?

Northwoods on November 6, 2012 at 12:21 PM

My thoughts exactly. It seems to me the biggest driver of all of this is Canada. They refuse to deal with Maroun. I’m not a huge fan of Maroun myself, but it seems to me we are letting Canada dictate terms to us on this issue. We don’t need anymore financial burdens in our state budget right now.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Barred on November 6, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Having voted at the same polling place all these many years and knowing the folks there that are in the capacity of official election personnel. The change struck me as odd. It is John Lewis’s district. I am not happy. It has been reported. The man was new, first time. All others were the same lovely little ladies I have known for years. We even joke with one another about our sometimes dating on and off relationship. The better half laughs at us for our banter. You are probably right, it just struck me funny. P.S. Will be heading up the 85er here in just a moment for home sweet home. ; )

Bmore on November 6, 2012 at 1:00 PM

I’m EC too, did likewise at 7am. I’m afraid that won’t change the color of our state however.

SomeCallMeJohn on November 6, 2012 at 12:09 PM

It’s sad that the whole state is controlled by the DC suburbs and Baltimore City. Not much we can do about it though.

PetecminMd on November 6, 2012 at 1:39 PM

See You in November today.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZfR1xFpxC8

bmmg39 on November 6, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Comment pages: 1 2