9 pm: Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota Update: Denver Post calls CO for O

posted at 8:32 pm on November 6, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

According to Allahpundit’s electoral math made easy, we’ve got two deciders and two longshots.

Colorado is undoubtedly the most likely to fall in Mitt Romney’s column. Republicans won early voting— a change from 2008 when the Obama campaign won the early vote by several points on the way to a 9-point victory. As of 4 p.m. MST, thanks to our friend Kelly Maher, we know from the Secretary of State’s office that Republicans were at 82 percent of their 2008 turnout, Democrats at 80 and Independents at 79, seemingly good news for Republicans who can count on a decent boon in the after-work voting bloc.

Watch live returns, here.

Team Romney liked the signals from bellwether and swing counties earlier today:

Arapahoe (Swing County) — 4,860 Democrat & 5,271 Republican — Election Day so far.

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV — 75,653 Democrat & 75,812 Republican.

Jefferson County (Swing) — 78,738 Democrat & 85,378 Republican for AB/EV.

Wisconsin, earlier tonight, the word from the GOP on the ground. Watch live results, here.

Scott Walker won his recall by seven points, with both GOTV efforts in full swing, but there were two types of Walker voters. 1) People who were backing Walker and 2) people who didn’t believe Walker had done anything warranting a recall, even if they didn’t agree with him. Not all of those folks are Romney voters.

If we have a better idea of where Virginia stands by the time these states’ polls closed, we’ll know whether it’s worth bothering with Michigan and Minnesota, the longest of the long shots. If Virginia goes blue, it’ll likely be an unfun night in these states for Team Romney.

Update: Fox calls Michigan for Obama. Romney loses his native state and one, albeit far-fetched, back-up route to 270.

Update: The spread looks like 52-48 for Obama and Sen. Debbie Stabenow wins the Senate seat.

Update: Two gone for Team Romney in this category as Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama.

Update: Hmm…

Update: Wisconsin has been called by several networks, and Minnesota goes blue, 53-45.

Update: Gulp.

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first!

Armin Tamzarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

The first 40 or so may go to Romney and Obama but the last 17 are all Gerald Johansen’s!

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Obamaphones….

Rambotito on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Won!!!

Electrongod on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

51/48 Obama leading in Florida….not good.

No Landslide tonight.

Barone sadly mistaken.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Where can I find a reliable real time electoral map? Tried to Google it and got Huffpo. Blech.

kg598301 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Yo MKH!!

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

I’m too nervous to watch. I need to watch Animal Planet or something for a while.

Philly on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

What is it with the fat men in our party…Christie gropes Obama and now Huckabee is whining about black outreach.
WTF, piss off.

HornetSting on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

c’mon VA

c’mon OH

c’mon FL

c’mon WI

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

As much as I don’t care for Huckleberry, he makes more sense the BOR (ing).

Conservatives are voting for Romney.

Libs are voting for Zero.

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Obama 78
Romney 88

SWalker on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Minnesota is going to shock the world – okay pipe dream but still a girl has got to dream.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Where can I find a reliable real time electoral map? Tried to Google it and got Huffpo. Blech.

kg598301 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

I am watching….

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results

Electrongod on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Lieberman’s seat goes D in CT.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

I am feeling so nervous I’m annoying even myself…

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Damn on McMahon

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Man, I wish we were getting some calls on the big swing states. Not a single one called yet.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Is this where the calm and non-eeyores are hanging?

It’s early… relax… still lots to come and votes to count.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Rove effectively neutralized my eeyore defeatism. I didn’t realize those early numbers in Florida are largely early votes. Still not looking GREAT, but it ain’t over.

This is brutal.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Brutal to follow minute by minute that is.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Damn on McMahon

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

That was a long shot anyway.

Othniel on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 PM

51/48 Obama leading in Florida….not good.

No Landslide tonight.

Barone sadly mistaken.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Romney has Florida locked up. All of Obama’s early lead from Florida was from early voting. Chin up soldier!

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

gop Senate NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

Connie Mack and Linda McMahon lost.

The party needed to pick up these outlier races.

Looking more and more like what I said earlier. Tight race, Obama win.

TEATERNAMI 2012!!
Latch on America, suck that Federal sow dry!!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Man, I wish we were getting some calls on the big swing states. Not a single one called yet.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The final RCP average was Obama +0.6.

This elections is going to be a nailbiter.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Per NRO, Virginia still voting due to long lines:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332806/virginia-report-hans-von-spakovsky

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Still nervous…

joekenha on November 6, 2012 at 8:42 PM

VA looks to be going red but OH & FL aren’t looking so good.

Browncoatone on November 6, 2012 at 8:43 PM

A bunch of nervouse Nellies here.

myrenovations on November 6, 2012 at 8:43 PM

I think we’ll win FL and NC, but I thought they were safe. NC is razor thin with >55% reporting. What’s that say about OH, PA, CO, IA, etc?

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Minnesota is going to shock the world – okay pipe dream but still a girl has got to dream.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Some dreams come true. Keep believing :-)

MJBrutus on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

How’s the landslide treating all you geniuses who confidently predicted it? A lot like how Sarah Palin’s decision to run treated you same overconfident buffoons, perhaps?

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results

Electrongod on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Thank you!

kg598301 on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Florida has me nervous. It’s a MUST WIN! Looks like NC is coming around and I am hearing VA is still solid for Romney.

Ohio is a humming me out. Would be great to pull in Michigan.

Romney can still win. No landslide tonight.

Rockshine on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Obama still leading in FL and OH.

Romney up by only one in NC.

This is NOT Landslide material and folks if Florida goes to O, how does Romney win????

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Again, per NRO, both campaigns projecting Romney taking Florida:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332808/campaigns-project-romney-wins-florida-eliana-johnson

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Don’t forget that a bad Romney showing in WI will doom Tommy Thompson and the wacky Tammy Baldwin will be the next Senator.

bgibbs, I want my money!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Florida has me nervous. It’s a MUST WIN! Looks like NC is coming around and I am hearing VA is still solid for Romney.

Ohio is a humming me out. Would be great to pull in Michigan.

Romney can still win. No landslide tonight.

Rockshine on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

Ohio is another state where we see the early voting numbers. Don’t let that shake you.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:46 PM

How’s the landslide treating all you geniuses who confidently predicted it? A lot like how Sarah Palin’s decision to run treated you same overconfident buffoons, perhaps?

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I’m loving it. All the dullards who ridiculed Gary Johnson are getting their comeuppance tonight.

Armin Tamzarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:46 PM

51/48 Obama leading in Florida….not good.

No Landslide tonight.

Barone sadly mistaken.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Getting difficult to see a path for Romney. But it is highly unlikely Obama will win the popular vote.

Steveangell on November 6, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Popular vote 52-47…

Battleground Poll is right on track…

MGardner on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

JUST IMAGINE THE ARROGANT ONE coming out in Chicago and accepting the adoration of the crowd!!!

I will not watch.

My TV will go silent.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Again, Drudge quiet…

Rove excited….

I have cramps…

Where is Dick Morris?

Eating curves and waves?

not-ur-avragejoe on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

How’s the landslide treating all you geniuses who confidently predicted it? A lot like how Sarah Palin’s decision to run treated you same overconfident buffoons, perhaps?

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:44 PM

She decided to run this late in the race?

Damn she must be stoopid. Amirite?

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

I’m loving it. All the dullards who ridiculed Gary Johnson are getting their comeuppance tonight.

Armin Tamzarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:46 PM

Who?

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:48 PM

Le Ugh!

Andrew Kaczynski ‏@BuzzFeedAndrew

Also, the XFL. RT @samsteinhp: Linda McMahon spent $100 million on two failed Senate runs

https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:49 PM

TROLLCOTT!!!!

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Will Colorado be the first “swing” state to be called when the polls close?

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 8:49 PM

This is NOT Landslide material and folks if Florida goes to O, how does Romney win????

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

My expert called after Dick Morris indicated worry over Florida.

He said one word:

“Hispanics.”

IlikedAUH2O on November 6, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Who?

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:48 PM

One of two people (the other being Willard Romney) who will not be President-elect tomorrow.

Armin Tamzarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:50 PM

Calm down folks, AP just called North Carolina for Romney.

milcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:50 PM

None of these swing states have been called, yet I see the trolls are in full dipshite mode. Who wants to bet they all collectively shut up once these states start going for Romney?

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:51 PM

One of two people (the other being Willard Romney) who will not be President-elect tomorrow.

Armin Tamzarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:50 PM

CHOOM CHOOM CHEERIE!

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Miss Laura on FOX. Time for some sanity.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Florida closing… Obama 50 Romney 49. Come on I-4 corridor!!

Rockshine on November 6, 2012 at 8:52 PM

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray

Romney is up by 2% in Vigo county, Indiana, home of Terre Haute. The county has picked every president since Eisenhower.

Resist We Much on November 6, 2012 at 8:52 PM

I really don’t care what happens in Congress because they are meaningless in a 2nd Obama term.

America loving this Greatness from Chicago.

Laura Ingraham going on and on about Benghazi.

People don’t care.

The gop WILL NEVER NEVER LEARN!!!!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

I hate Chuck Todd, but he just called Florida for Romney. I’ll give him a pass for tonight.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Obama still leading in FL and OH.

Romney up by only one in NC.

This is NOT Landslide material and folks if Florida goes to O, how does Romney win????

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Calm down. All Dem strongholds have reported in Florida, and the Panhandle still has to be counted which always goes strong Republican. Florida is a lock, and North Carolina was just called for Romney by the Associated Press.

And the Obama lead in Ohio is just about all the early voting results. Way too soon to start worrying about Ohio.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Ye of faint heart, …exit now!

SMACKRUNNER on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Where is Dick Morris?

Eating curves and waves?

not-ur-avragejoe on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

not-ur-avragejoe :You rang!!
=============================

Andrew Kaczynski ‏@BuzzFeedAndrew

#FF @DickMorrisTweet Like the Hindenburg right now, but with polls.
===================================================================

Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#election2012 with 1/3 in, Romney is 12 ahead. Could be a very big win. Expected to go Romneyby 5 if more, could be big win

https://twitter.com/DickMorrisTweet

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

This is unbelievable. If you believe the reports, Team Obama has actually been turning out even more black voters in some areas than 2008.

What. The. Hell.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Laura Ingraham is clueless too.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

I really don’t care what happens in Congress because they are meaningless in a 2nd Obama term.

America loving this Greatness from Chicago.

Laura Ingraham going on and on about Benghazi.

People don’t care.

The gop WILL NEVER NEVER LEARN!!!!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

STFU. Geez. Don’t you EVER stop???

Go have a drink.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Ha, I see in Texas Romney is spanking Zero by 68 percent to 30 something. I want a wall built around my state. 360 degrees. Come for a visit! If you have a passport.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

@abc7newsBayArea tweeted:
abc7newsBayArea
#BREAKING: @ABC News projects Mitt Romney will win Mississippi. #Election2012 #YourVote

2 mins ago from twitter.com by partner

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:55 PM

From Twitchy:

Nate Silver says there’s an 86.9% chance you and I are perfect for each other #ElectionPickUpLines

Nathan Wurtzel (@NathanWurtzel) November 06, 2012

LMAO

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Wow, Ingraham already starting the Right’s post-election Kill Romney. Sad. If we lose, it’s because we’ve lost the country, not because of the nominee’s campaign.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Laura Ingraham is clueless too.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

She’s 100% correct ***IF*** you disregard the media. Sometimes these talking heads tend to forget that it’s not only the other side that has to be fought, but the media as well.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Mitt’s Body Man ‏@dgjackson

Chasing some of the grandkids down the hallway! pic.twitter.com/EFCSiC75

https://twitter.com/dgjackson/status/265983163887673344/photo/1

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Senate race in MA: 4% in, Brown’s trailing by two.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:57 PM

The gop WILL NEVER NEVER LEARN!!!!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Learn what? Romney ran a great campaign. If Romney cant win, no Republican can this year.

Good news is that interest rates will remain artificially low under Obama and I can live in my hime for free.

rickyricardo on November 6, 2012 at 8:57 PM

CRAP on PA

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Damn. Bob Casey holds Pennsylvania Senate seat.

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Uh oh… Casey just received the call. I was hoping that would take longer.

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Where is Dick Morris?

Eating curves and waves?

not-ur-avragejoe on November 6, 2012 at 8:47 PM

not-ur-avragejoe :You rang!!
=============================

Andrew Kaczynski ‏@BuzzFeedAndrew

#FF @DickMorrisTweet Like the Hindenburg right now, but with polls.
===================================================================

Dick Morris ‏@DickMorrisTweet

#election2012 with 1/3 in, Romney is 12 ahead. Could be a very big win. Expected to go Romneyby 5 if more, could be big win

https://twitter.com/DickMorrisTweet

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM
******************************************************************

Many thanks canopfor – Don’t twitter – yet…..

not-ur-avragejoe on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

PA Senate not President

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Well, this is a dose of Common Sense
======================================

@markknoller tweeted:
markknoller
Virginia State Board of Elections suspends reporting results so voters still waiting “not unduly influenced by preliminary results.”

4 mins ago from twitter.com by editor

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Wow, Ingraham already starting the Right’s post-election Kill Romney. Sad. If we lose, it’s because we’ve lost the country, not because of the nominee’s campaign.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 8:56 PM

+1. So proud of Romney. Great man and great candidate. If he loses it is the country’s fault.

Ted Torgerson on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Ingraham did say that she still thinks Romney will win.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Ha, I see in Texas Romney is spanking Zero by 68 percent to 30 something. I want a wall built around my state. 360 degrees. Come for a visit! If you have a passport.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

If it weren’t for the size of your spiders I’d already live in Texas.

Browncoatone on November 6, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Can we have one thread please? Switching back and forth is not helping my nerves!

texgal on November 6, 2012 at 8:59 PM

Sh*t!

Democrat Maggie Hassan wins governor race in New Hampshire – @AP

1 min ago by editor

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Damnation.

Dem wins guv race in NH, Senate in PA.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Ugh, Casey wins in PA already. That’s basically our hopes shot for PA.

LukeinNE on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

YES! CNN has Mittens less than 5,000 votes behind the zero in FL!

Browncoatone on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Boy, I hope we win Ohio, because our backup plans are blowing up one by one.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

I wondered why Virginia stopped updating. And Virginia said polls will remain open until 11 in some areas, so looks we won’t a call for Virginia until the wee hours.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Well, this is a dose of Common Sense
======================================

@markknoller tweeted:
markknoller
Virginia State Board of Elections suspends reporting results so voters still waiting “not unduly influenced by preliminary results.”

4 mins ago from twitter.com by editor

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

After they influenced them for an hour ??? Sure…

Y314K on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Instacall in MI… :(

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Minnesota too close. Michigan for Obama.

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Andrew Kaczynski ‏@BuzzFeedAndrew

RT @DailyIntel: Fox News projects Democratic Sen. Bob Casey wins reelection in PA.

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

How in the hell can Fox call Michigan for Obama as soon as the poll closed?

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Michigan just went bankrupt

not-ur-avragejoe on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Michigan called for Obama.

Sheesh.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Minnesota too close to call!

YEAH BABY!

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Sunnavabitch.

Michigan called for Obama. Not even close.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Fox called MI for O

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Wow, Ingraham already starting the Right’s post-election Kill Romney. Sad. If we lose, it’s because we’ve lost the country, not because of the nominee’s campaign.

jjraines on November 6, 2012

Whoa, no kidding. She really needs to taks a pharmaceutical of some sort.

kg598301 on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:58 PM

After they influenced them for an hour ??? Sure…

Y314K on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 PM

Y314K:Exactly!

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

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