9 pm: Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota Update: Denver Post calls CO for O

posted at 8:32 pm on November 6, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

According to Allahpundit’s electoral math made easy, we’ve got two deciders and two longshots.

Colorado is undoubtedly the most likely to fall in Mitt Romney’s column. Republicans won early voting— a change from 2008 when the Obama campaign won the early vote by several points on the way to a 9-point victory. As of 4 p.m. MST, thanks to our friend Kelly Maher, we know from the Secretary of State’s office that Republicans were at 82 percent of their 2008 turnout, Democrats at 80 and Independents at 79, seemingly good news for Republicans who can count on a decent boon in the after-work voting bloc.

Watch live returns, here.

Team Romney liked the signals from bellwether and swing counties earlier today:

Arapahoe (Swing County) — 4,860 Democrat & 5,271 Republican — Election Day so far.

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV — 75,653 Democrat & 75,812 Republican.

Jefferson County (Swing) — 78,738 Democrat & 85,378 Republican for AB/EV.

Wisconsin, earlier tonight, the word from the GOP on the ground. Watch live results, here.

Scott Walker won his recall by seven points, with both GOTV efforts in full swing, but there were two types of Walker voters. 1) People who were backing Walker and 2) people who didn’t believe Walker had done anything warranting a recall, even if they didn’t agree with him. Not all of those folks are Romney voters.

If we have a better idea of where Virginia stands by the time these states’ polls closed, we’ll know whether it’s worth bothering with Michigan and Minnesota, the longest of the long shots. If Virginia goes blue, it’ll likely be an unfun night in these states for Team Romney.

Update: Fox calls Michigan for Obama. Romney loses his native state and one, albeit far-fetched, back-up route to 270.

Update: The spread looks like 52-48 for Obama and Sen. Debbie Stabenow wins the Senate seat.

Update: Two gone for Team Romney in this category as Fox calls Wisconsin for Obama.

Update: Hmm…

Update: Wisconsin has been called by several networks, and Minnesota goes blue, 53-45.

Update: Gulp.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 5 6 7

Romney pulls with under 3 in Ohio with less barely 50% reporting. NC looks to be R&R and VA also..hmmm, could be a long night.

celt on November 6, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Peggy Noonan on. Uck.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Okay, they need to bring the ban hammer down on some of you for reckless Eeyorishness. Do you *enjoy* giving up or something?

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 10:23 PM

They’re here to show their concern.

squint on November 6, 2012 at 10:28 PM

The concern trolls are concerned? Oh noes.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Botched that one, Romney pulls within less than 3% in Ohio with a lot of RED to be counted – I think Rove is right on.

celt on November 6, 2012 at 10:37 PM

EEEyoreCOTT!!

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I love you. Enough of this pessimism. When Rove speaks about winning in certain counties and precincts, people need to listen. Nobody believed him in 2000, nobody including 43, and nobody believed him in 2004. He knows OH and FL, down to precincts.

TXUS on November 6, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Gibbs on, LIAR ALERT!!!

TXUS on November 6, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Romney within 1.8% in Ohio now and only 55% in! Within 7/10th of a percent in FL. 3% lead in VA with 80% in. WI looks like a winner. NC also!

celt on November 6, 2012 at 10:40 PM

JAM on November 6, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Nice try, but troll doesn’t fit.

Go over to the Politico election map they are running and you can see county-by-county results.

The FACT is Miami-Dade and Broward counties still have BIG numbers to report.

The capacity to do math does not make one a troll.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Romney ran a strong campaign
He did not go in for the kill on the third debate
Nor on benghazi

The media was criminal during this election
Obama should have resigned from discrace if they reported things

Still holding out for the straight

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Wisconsin now trending Romney…

IrishEi on November 6, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Think I’ll be polishing the resume this weekend. I am not going to sit through another election in a blue state.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Feeling the same way.

I still think we’re going to eke out a win — but I still have to think long and hard about staying in a state that just elected Elizabeth Warren to the Senate.

Wyoming is a beautiful state — but I’m not sure I could take the winters.

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 10:44 PM

From Twitter: Wisconsin back in play – Romney leading Obama 51-48%. #SunNews

hawksruleva on November 6, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Wisconsin now trending Romney…

IrishEi on November 6, 2012 at 10:43 PM

WHAT?????

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I’m being torn asunder. I’ve got the defeatist part of me fighting the optimist holding out hope for the last few possible states.

What is happening to my country?
How do I just pick up and move? Lord knows I want to.

Despair, not at a potential loss, but at the possibility that this POS may continue to occupy the WH because of an infestation of takers. Libs created the taker class and is breeding them like roaches.

I’m ashamed of half of my fellow citizens. And at myself for not being able to have any effect on our current state.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 10:45 PM

Remember Mark Twain’s American heroes?

I know what Mitt and the rest of us had wrong.

All the economy focus and following unemployment numbers assumed that people actually want jobs.

Twain had dumb heroes with a lot of fine qualities and love of adventure.

They were also lazy as He–.

I have done way too much reading.

IlikedAUH2O on November 6, 2012 at 10:47 PM

With only 70% reported, Miami-Dade has Obama up 433K to 260K.

With only 84% reported, Broward has Obama up 446K to 208K.

Santa Rosa has now reported 88% and Obama is still up by 16K.

Where are the numbers going to come from to overcome Miami-Dade and Broward?

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 10:48 PM

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I have been all over the world and can’t find a place.

Dick Morris just tweeted:

“Don’t give up!”

IlikedAUH2O on November 6, 2012 at 10:49 PM

From Twitter: Wisconsin back in play – Romney leading Obama 51-48%. #SunNews

hawksruleva on November 6, 2012 at 10:44 PM

There’s still a path. It just looks like the Death Star trench in Star Wars.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 10:51 PM

I am all over these threads since everyone deserted me in anticipation of a Repub. loss.

Wanna know their basis?

The color of the folks in the lines and the high turnout.

Racists!

IlikedAUH2O on November 6, 2012 at 10:51 PM

What is happening to my country?

We’re changing from pioneers and creators to … I don’t know. Nothings.

I’m ashamed of half of my fellow citizens. And at myself for not being able to have any effect on our current state.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I put blame on myself too. But, better to take the hand we’re dealt, and fight for what we believe and against such as Obama.

Paul-Cincy on November 6, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Earlier they called Wisconsin for Obama (with like 4% of the vote in WTF?), but now Romeny is leading with 31% of the vote.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Ah. The Hammer changed WI back to blue. Sigh.

Paul-Cincy on November 6, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Fox: Minenesota to Obama

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Minny just went blue and Kieth Ellison is still my congressman.

Expected, but still disappointing.

Loon & Tick state, ya sure, you betcha.

Bruno Strozek on November 6, 2012 at 10:53 PM

I’ve read now two or three sources that say WI not over yet. There are still votes out in some conservative areas.

stukinIL4now on November 6, 2012 at 10:53 PM

thanks for the encouragement AuH2O.

Goldwater seems like an ephemeral dream that once existed as a thought when compared to this stain on our country.

God help us.

I know libs reading these posts are delighting in our despair. Eff them. I hate what they stand for and what they’ve done to the United States.

I may dispair, but I will not give you the satisfaction of defeating me. I will find a way to throw off the shackles you’ve places on us all.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Romney ran a strong campaign
He did not go in for the kill on the third debate
Nor on benghazi

The media was criminal during this election
Obama should have resigned from discrace if they reported things

Still holding out for the straight

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Maybe Candy Crowley will get a peach ambassadorship, -Belgium, maybe Paris or Switzerland?

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Drudge obviously screwed up the FL post. Exact same numbers….lol

BrianVII on November 6, 2012 at 10:56 PM

You have too much of Dane and Milwaukee counties left to count in WI.

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 10:56 PM

Why haven’t they called North Carolina yet??

Romney’s up 3% with 97% reporting!

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Peggy Noonan on. Uck.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Yep, I’d rather listen to Susan Estrich than Pegs. Oh wait…

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 10:58 PM

You too, Paul-Cincy.

I’m falling but will regroup out of love of family, God, and the country I once knew.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 10:58 PM

And, just like that, Obama’s ahead in WI.

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Love the USA
Hate the USSA

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Earlier they called Wisconsin for Obama (with like 4% of the vote in WTF?), but now Romeny is leading with 31% of the vote.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Okay, I meant he is ahead by a few % with 31% reported. Now, 35% has reported and he is down again by 1%.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 11:01 PM

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Fox just called it for Mitt.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Tim Kaine wins Sen for Virginia.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Looking at the electoral map, I can see how the plague is spreading.

Looking for an exterminator.

Good lord….they just called Tim Kaine over George Allen. Fluke!

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:02 PM

Finally put up NC with like a bazillion % reporting. Up next, they will start calling states with 0.3 % polling for Obama, just because.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 11:03 PM

How can VA be competitive but Allen loses? How does that square?

Midwestprincesse on November 6, 2012 at 11:05 PM

Why do we as citizens, allow for one person to have perpetual rein in government?

Tim Kaine’s life has ONLY been in government from my overall understanding.

Midwestprincesse on November 6, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Kirsten Powers talking inanity.

She says if Obama wins, he’ll likely moderate/work with Repubs since he’ll be a lame duck and no base to appease.

I call BS. This guy will destroy us.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Ok, it is officially over with Colorado going to Obama…

mnjg on November 6, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Maybe Candy Crowley will get a peach ambassadorship, -Belgium, maybe Paris or Switzerland?

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Libya? Iran? I can think of a few places to send her.

bitsy on November 6, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Denver post used to call me to renew my subscription too. Didn’t happen then, so…

Tennman on November 6, 2012 at 11:09 PM

Kirsten Powers talking inanity.

She says if Obama wins, he’ll likely moderate/work with Repubs since he’ll be a lame duck and no base to appease.

I call BS. This guy will destroy us.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Kiki Powers is just trying to put a positive spin on a potentially very bad night. To tell the truth, I get the impression she’s not all that keen on 4 more years of Obama and knows what he has in store for this country. And it most certainly does NOT involve moderation and reaching across the aisle.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 11:09 PM

How can VA be competitive but Allen loses? How does that square?

I’m guessing it doesn’t.

mrsknightley on November 6, 2012 at 11:09 PM

I pray for Obama’s defeat, trust in God whatever happens, and pray that I can find peace.

Lord, look at that election map by county behind Kirsten Powers. There’s barely any blue on it. Those effing urban areas are a blight on us.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:10 PM

Majority of the rural vote has been counted in Ohio.

The BIG numbers left are Cleveland, Dayton, and Cincinnati which are and will go blue. The suburban counties don’t have enough numbers to offset the big cities.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Like I said, Ohio is done.

Soon to come, Florida.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:14 PM

Fluke!

Good night. God have mercy on us.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:14 PM

Goodnight Folks.

I’ll be off HotAir for awhile.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Huh. They’re calling Ohio for Obama…

If that’s right… it really is over.

ClintACK on November 6, 2012 at 11:15 PM

O goes for O.

El finish-O.

Bruno Strozek on November 6, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Give me a break if these Fox analyst’s think Obama is going to move to the middle.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Kirsten Powers talking inanity.

She says if Obama wins, he’ll likely moderate/work with Repubs since he’ll be a lame duck and no base to appease.

I call BS. This guy will destroy us.

freedomfirst on November 6, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Yep, that was complete jibberish. Thinking that now little Bammie will be willing to work with Republicans is nonsense. I see another “I won” speech from Jackass.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:17 PM

Someone go find Dick Morris. He hasn’t tweeted in over a half hour. Perhaps he shouldn’t be left alone.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Don’t get so upset, people. Romney would give you the same exact policies as Obama.

Dante on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Everyone should avoid trying to blame Romney for the loss. He ran a good campaign and had maybe the best televised debate performance in history.

America had a clear choice, and it chose a social welfare state. At least we know now, and can plan accordingly.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

Oh God. 4 more years of Joe Biden.

txhsmom on November 6, 2012 at 11:19 PM

A country foolish enough to elect BHO to two terms deserves to suffer and suffer greatly. Time to ignore politics and begin to prep. for the inevitable collapse. Game over baby for the USA. Time to do all you can to protect you and yours, every man and family to themselves.

djtnt on November 6, 2012 at 11:19 PM

4 MORE YEARS! 4 MORE YEARS! 4 MORE YEARS! 4 MORE YEARS! 4 MORE YEARS!

independentvoice on November 6, 2012 at 11:20 PM

Give me a break if these Fox analyst’s think Obama is going to move to the middle.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Well he did tell Putin he would be more flexible after the election. I am sure that moving to the center is totally what he meant by that.

Lily on November 6, 2012 at 11:21 PM

Preliminary numbers are a D+6 election. R U kidding me. AHHHHH.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:21 PM

And to all in the echo chamber who refused to believe reality, too bad. Facts win. Silver wins. Wang wins. Barone, Krauthammer, Will, Rove, Morris (a joke), etc etc etc LOSE! Most important, America WINS!

independentvoice on November 6, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Time to buy stock in Fox news and talk radio. Another good four years about to occur.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 PM

BTW – turnout was REAL close to 2008, despite all the 2010 Tea Party electorate nonsense that I read here.

independentvoice on November 6, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Karl Rove and Romney campaign disagrees with the Ohio call, including Fox News’s Ohio call.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Some comments.

1. Romney so far ahead in Florida that the polling stopped? Really?
2. Dick Morris called a Romney landslide. Can we now stop listening to Dick Morris?
3. Karl Rove predicted a Romney win. Ditto KR?
4. Why couldn’t Romney have been as aggressive against Obama as he was against Gingrich and Santorum? Never has so much unused ammunition been left unpacked. The Obama firstvterm left the country looking like the Benghazi compound and Romney just played Mr. Nice Guy.
5. The intellectual corruption of the mainstream media is an issue that must be confronted.

Blaise on November 6, 2012 at 11:28 PM

And to all in the echo chamber who refused to believe reality, too bad. Facts win. Silver wins. Wang wins. Barone, Krauthammer, Will, Rove, Morris (a joke), etc etc etc LOSE! Most important, America WINS! RIP.

independentvoice on November 6, 2012 at 11:22 PM

ardenenoch on November 6, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Karl Rove and Romney campaign disagrees with the Ohio call, including Fox News’s Ohio call.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:28 PM

Rove says only 75% counted in Ohio and only 991 votes separate the candidates.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Thanks a lot libs in Wi.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 11:40 PM

A country foolish enough to elect BHO to two terms deserves to suffer and suffer greatly. Time to ignore politics and begin to prep. for the inevitable collapse. Game over baby for the USA. Time to do all you can to protect you and yours, every man and family to themselves.

djtnt on November 6, 2012 at 11:19 PM

Even worse if this holds up, we Failed to gain the senate which would have allowed for us to start impeachment hearings on obama, hillary and holder

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 PM

America had a clear choice, and it chose a social welfare state. At least we know now, and can plan accordingly.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

That is correct.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 PM

4. Why couldn’t Romney have been as aggressive against Obama as he was against Gingrich and Santorum? Never has so much unused ammunition been left unpacked. The Obama firstvterm left the country looking like the Benghazi compound and Romney just played Mr. Nice Guy.

That’s essentially what Ingraham said. He left too much on the table. You cannot play nice with these people.

Boehner better grow a damn spine now and cut off every bit of funding for anything that he can. Technically he can cut off funding for Obamacare.

What the hell happened from the tsunami of 2010? And even more, it’s only been 23 years since Reagan left office and look where we are. 23 years is not that long.

TxAnn56 on November 6, 2012 at 11:43 PM

I am well off and will see it’s effects on my family, daughter who has spent 10 months trying to get a professional job.

I pray for those who are squeeking by, unemployed or underemployed.
God help us

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 11:45 PM

Can someone please tell me why this many people would vote for the president?

What has he done? Is anyone better off (excluding teenager’s that want contraceptives).

I really thought there would be a different outcome tonight

ccrosby on November 6, 2012 at 11:49 PM

That’s essentially what Ingraham said. He left too much on the table. You cannot play nice with these people.

Boehner better grow a damn spine now and cut off every bit of funding for anything that he can. Technically he can cut off funding for Obamacare.

What the hell happened from the tsunami of 2010? And even more, it’s only been 23 years since Reagan left office and look where we are. 23 years is not that long.

TxAnn56 on November 6, 2012 at 11:43 PM

Because Romney wanted to close the likeability gap. It’s tough to do when you have 99% of the media in the tank for Obama, but it wasn’t a bad strategery. Look at who’s won recent Presidential elections. Clinton was brilliant at connecting with voters. They thought he cared about them, thus they liked him despite all the scandals. Bush was also very good with voters. They liked him and related to him(at least up until 2006) and that made the difference against a stiff like Gore and a rich, elitist snob like Kerry. Obama was obviously far more appealing on many fronts than McCain in 2008(plus the electorate was sick of Republicans at that point). And likeability(courtesy of the media) was the only thing keeping Obama in the 2012 race.

I hate to say it, but our nominee has to appeal to low information voters. You can attack the record of the Dems, but you can’t go out there and sound like a ranting radio talk show host. Mitt did a pretty good job of trying to connect with people, but in the end it looks like at least 51% of the electorate just couldn’t bring themselves to fire Obama because they still liked him.

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Doughboy on November 7, 2012 at 12:00 AM

…and women. Governor Romney lost women big. Going for little Bammie’s throat isn’t going to win with women. Democratics made up the ‘war on women’ card out of thin air and played it well.

slickwillie2001 on November 7, 2012 at 12:05 AM

Enjoy!

Bmore on November 7, 2012 at 12:10 AM

Democratics made up the ‘war on women’ card out of thin air and played it well.

slickwillie2001

And because women(among others)are that easily swayed, Republican presidents will likely become a thing of the past.

Oh well, it was a nice country while it lasted.

xblade on November 7, 2012 at 12:44 AM

…and women. Governor Romney lost women big. Going for little Bammie’s throat isn’t going to win with women. Democratics made up the ‘war on women’ card out of thin air and played it well.

The problem is that this passive strategy gave Obama a blank check to demonize him. Somewhere there has to be a middle ground between being nasty and letting the other guy slander you with impunity.

I think the correct balance would have been to strongly counter-attack specific negative attacks – effectively, you have to make an issue out of them, so their dishonesty and mean-spiritedness can be exposed. That wouldn’t have required attacking Obama directly, but rather making an issue of his false and vicious attacks. The goal would be to destroy the believability of such attacks (and the credibility of the one making them).

I don’t think that’s the way politics *should* be conducted, but this election shows it’s the way politics *must* be conducted when up against an opponent utterly devoid of scruples.

In 2008 and 2012, Obama was fortunate to have opponents who ultimately decided to take the high road in the face of political gangsterism.

Bush took the high road with more success (although failure to respond to incessant attacks eventually cost him during his second term) but his opponents were far less effective at the game.

LagunaDave on November 7, 2012 at 12:56 AM

America had a clear choice, and it chose a social welfare state. At least we know now, and can plan accordingly.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

That is correct.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 PM

Yep, this is the new ‘normal.

jimver on November 7, 2012 at 12:59 AM

Well I was Completely wrong and admit it. Wisconsin gave in to the Collective Welfare mentality.

America had a clear choice, and it chose a social welfare state. At least we know now, and can plan accordingly.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 11:18 PM

That is correct.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 11:42 PM

Very sad, because I’m sure there will be continued “Cost saving measures” where I work so will have to start thinking about alternatives for the future. As someone mentioned above Wyoming or the Dakota’s might work.

WhoU4 on November 7, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Decline

Bmore on November 15, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Comment pages: 1 5 6 7