8 pm: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

posted at 7:31 pm on November 6, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Of the eighteen states with polling stations closing within the 8 — 8:59 PM Eastern window, the three we’re concerned about, of course, are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and New Hampshire (4).

As Allahpundit summed up in his handy-dandy Electoral Math Made Easy primer yesterday, winning Florida is basically a prerequisite for the Romney campaign; its 29 electoral votes may be too many to do without. Fortunately, Romney’s maintained one of his better leaning-red battleground commands in Florida, along with North Carolina, and many polls have Romney winning with the senior demographic. As for Senate races, we’ve got Connie Mack (R) v. Bill Nelson (D), and the polls have all been steadily leaning in Nelson’s favor. Check their state returns here.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes last went Republican for G.W. in 2000, but Obama’s only averaging a slim lead there — will the lack of anti-Bush sentiment of 2004 and the lack of Hopenchange of 2008 be enough to flip them back to red? No Senate races here, but they are running a governor’s race between Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Maggie Hassan (D), which is leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group — they’ve gone blue in the presidential vote for decades now, but they’re perfectly capable of voting red down the ticket, which they did in 2010. After various accusations of Romney’s “flailing” “desperation” from various members of Team O, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter acknowledged last night that the contest for Pennsylvania has definitely tightened, and Romney’s recent campaign push into the state has had them visibly nervous. As Allahpundit also already pointed out in his thread, word on the street is that the “bitter clingers” are showing up in relatively full force in the rural counties that Romney will likely need to overcome an urban deficit. Their Senate race, Tom Smith (R) v. Bob Casey (D) has been leaning Democratic, and here’s their state returns page, for you viewing pleasure.

I’ll keep you updated on these states here as the results roll in, and for some live updates and analysis, be sure to tune in and listen to Ed on the Hugh Hewitt show!

Update: The polls are officially closed, but as President Obama helpfully reminds us, if you’re in line when the polls close, you’re still good to vote — and it’s looking like certain Florida lines are still long. This could take awhile.

Update: Yup, via Politico:

Voting is continuing into the night Tuesday at a condo tower south of downtown here where “Hispanics for Obama” placards compete with an anti-communist poster taped to a palmetto bush — and where some residents say they’ve waited as long six hours to cast their ballots. …

“It’s not going well at all,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said as he trudged through the parking lot while people in the parking lot yelled, “Shame on you” and “Venezuela runs better elections.”

Hundreds more were still waitng in a line snaking through the parking lot well past the official 7 p.m. EST closing time for the polls. (Polls close an hour later for Florida Panhandle counties that are on Central Time.)

Update: Chuck Todd just offered the rundown of the numbers coming in in Florida for NBC — Democrats are officially leading with the early vote tally, but not by nearly as much as Obama’s 2008 totals. Todd also noted that experts on both sides are predicting the state could come down to a difference of less than 100,000 votes, and thinks that, if it should come down to less than 50,000 votes, we could be looking at legal challenges. Oof.

Update: Bill Nelson, the Democrat, won his third term in Florida’s Senate seat over Connie Mack.

Update: They’ve just called Pennsylvania — it’s going blue.

Update: Fox News is calling New Hampshire for Obama, and the networks are saying that Florida is resting on a knife’s edge with 84% reporting.

Update: Aaaand, it looks like the fate of Florida’s votes won’t matter, as the networks are calling Ohio for Obama, meaning he’ll have passed the threshold of necessary electoral votes.


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Santa Rosa plus Holmes plus Gadsten, vs. — Wait it’s counted!

I think we’ve got FL!

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Mitt will take Florida,

He is about to blow past o.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

Laura Ingraham is so freakin’ hot…

OmahaConservative on November 6, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Ot, but certainly true. Sexy and smart – the killer combo.

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 8:55 PM

During the ’08 crusade, I made a mild crack about Mrs. O never being proud of being an American and I had about 4 youngsters start hacking on Laura.

For her ugly looks.

I don’t know how to talk to people that messed up.

IlikedAUH2O on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

A lot of people here stressing about events they no longer control. Sit back, relax, and do something else. We don’t need anyone giving themselves a heart attack.

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Ok, we’re seeing Romney 149 and Obie at 127.

We need Florida!

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Folks,

Rubio was trailing Crist with 65% reporting… panhandle is staunch Rep/right – as are late voting precincts, even in “eastern closed precints” throughout central/southern florida. Leon and Wakulla go left – thats it.Ealry and late day voting always go to the working Reps – even though a precinct closes at 7 eastern, the first 5 hours are in… then the remianing catch up within said precincts.

Still say 3-5% romney win in Florida. VA/Ohio?WI/Penn are where its at – and won’t be finalized until at least midnight.

Simmer down now.

Odie1941 on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

3,000 gap inFL BUT MITT IS BLOWING BY NOW,

71 % in

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

Is that bad for Mitt if he wins FL by “only” 100,000 or so, given that some polls had him up by six?

bmmg39 on November 6, 2012 at 9:02 PM

EVs = 127-0, 149-R

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 9:03 PM

ABC projects MI for O with 9% reporting

Sheeesh!

MI

O – 53

R – 47

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Where’s the “downfall” parody – “FLORIDA!!!” FLORIDA?

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Mitt will take Florida,

He is about to blow past o.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 9:01 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-florida-state-race

Crazy close

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:03 PM

Heh, Romney’s running out of places to find votes in Florida. Almost all the remaining precincts are in Southern Florida.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 9:04 PM

FL tied with 71% reporting

O – 50

R – 50

Squeeker!

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:05 PM

I thought most of the uncounted votes are in the panhandle…

bmmg39 on November 6, 2012 at 9:05 PM

Heh, Romney’s running out of places to find votes in Florida. Almost all the remaining precincts are in Southern Florida.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Um, the panhandle is in the north.

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 9:04 PM

You are a moron and a liar.

Odie1941 on November 6, 2012 at 9:06 PM

3 panhandle counties in FL not in yet

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:06 PM

Squeeker!

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:05 PM

But Romney’s. He should take Santa Rosa. That should be the end of it. What are their recount rules again? :)

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Hold the camera still, Fox! This isn’t MTV.

Eleven on November 6, 2012 at 9:07 PM

Pop of SR is ~150; Pop other to is ~50 each.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Squeeker!

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:05 PM

But Romney’s. He should take Santa Rosa. That should be the end of it. What are their recount rules again? :)

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:07 PM

I’m optmistic…but it’ll be a squeeker

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:08 PM

*two

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 PM

OH with 29% reporting

O – 55%

R – 44%

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 PM

8,000 votes ATM. :) Gonna go walk around a minute.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Typhoid boy should be on the list too.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Romney now ahead in Florida

BrianVII on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

We’re Romney here in Escambia county (fl, Pensacola). We’ll bring RR home.

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Mitt just pulled ahead in Florida

MoreLiberty on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

So, if Mitt can’t get Ohio, PA or Michigan, what’s left assuming he can eke out VA and Fla to get him to 270?

Firefly_76 on November 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

electoral count on Fox

R – 154

O – 123

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Typhoid boy should be on the list too.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 9:10 PM

He is, pretty sure I saw him.

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Florida SOS Website showing less than 2,000 votes separate the two. Does seem like Mitt’s surging as the Panhandle returns come in.

SoFlaCon on November 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

Mitt now slightly ahead in FL for first time tonight:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-florida-state-race

AshleyTKing on November 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

Romney will win FL, both sides now agree. One down, three to go.

TXUS on November 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

FL will come through. Worry about VA, OH, CO, IA, PA.

matthew8787 on November 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

My State just can’t go O!!! I pray…reload HA…pray…reload HA….

jatfla on November 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM

Gonna grab a bite to eat so I’ll check in later

C’mon Florida…Bring it in for Romney

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:13 PM

So, if Mitt can’t get Ohio, PA or Michigan, what’s left assuming he can eke out VA and Fla to get him to 270?

Firefly_76 on November 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin.

sharrukin on November 6, 2012 at 9:14 PM

OH with 29% reporting

O – 55%

R – 44%

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 PM

That includes the early votes. They say it is still to close to call.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Down to 3000 votes here and two counties. If Santa Rosa would report, we could be done.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

penn called for the enemy.

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

PA gone.

JFS61 on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Damn….Obama gets PA.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Damn it.

Fish on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

PA just called for Hussein.

Brat on November 6, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Fox called PA for Zero

adoubledot on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

So, if Mitt can’t get Ohio, PA or Michigan, what’s left assuming he can eke out VA and Fla to get him to 270?

Firefly_76 on November 6, 2012 at 9:11 PM

Realistically probably nothing, but the last stand would be Wisconsin. If Romney won WI, Iowa, and Colorado, he would win the Presidency.

Realistically though, that’s not happening if he can’t win Ohio. There’s a chance, though, since Ohio is bailoutland.

HitNRun on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Fox just called PA for Obama….I think the Romney landslide theory is officially dead

ChrisL on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

I heard that they have called PA for Obama.

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

OH with 29% reporting

O – 55%

R – 44%

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012

Man, can we at least get even counties, etc? This is heart attack!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

And now down by 2,000. So they are being counted anyway. :)

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:16 PM

EVs = 149-R, !47-0

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

PA = Fool’s Gold, as Megyn Kelly called it.

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Penn called for Obama.

xblade on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Come on Panhandle…!!!

Seven Percent Solution on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

400 votes difference.

O good my complexion.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

FOX just called PA for Obama.

TeaTrekkie on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Has anyone seen Barone lately?

JFS61 on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

Dang.

Fish on November 6, 2012 at 9:17 PM

No offense, but Pennsylvania can go Fluke themselves. It’s a constant tease in Presidential and most statewide elections. If Mitt loses O-I-H-O or Wisconsin narrowly, those visits to PA will haunt him for a very long time.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Screw it, FoxNews called PA for Barry. If OH is gone, it’s gone.

bayview on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Crap, PA’s out.

hollygolightly on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

PA and MI not even close.

NC and FL very close.

Forget about it.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I hate Pennsylvania. My wife and I are moving far away from these morons.

bandutski on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin.

sharrukin on November 6, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Thanks; crikey. Not looking like a blowout, that’s for sure.

Firefly_76 on November 6, 2012 at 9:19 PM

Screw it, FoxNews called PA for Barry. If OH is gone, it’s gone.

bayview on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

Afraid for all intents and purposes, that it already is.

JFS61 on November 6, 2012 at 9:19 PM

PA = Fool’s Gold, as Megyn Kelly called it.

dukecitygirl

Pretty much. It’s why I’ve been saying for months now that Mitt would not win Penn. He won’t win Michigan or Wisconsin either. It’s going to come down to Ohio.

xblade on November 6, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Obama = fools gold, John Galt call it.

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 9:23 PM

Stick a fork in US….we’re done.

jatfla on November 6, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Based on eastern states, looks like the last Marquette Univ poll for WI and the Des Moines Register pool in Iowa were real.

Senate races are a disaster almost everywhere.

The Republican’s maintain the House.

Was there any point in having this election?

Status quo! Blahhhhhh.

And socialism, here we come.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 9:24 PM

We keep the House.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Who was it who said that social issues weren’t important? If abortion is the winning issue I don’t want to ever hear a fiscal conservative say shut up about abortion.

txmomof6 on November 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Well I’m done watching, I never thought it would go this way.

tbrickert on November 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

OH with 29% reporting

O – 55%

R – 44%

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 PM

That includes the early votes. They say it is still to close to call.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 9:14 PM

Still narrowing.

Alberta_Patriot on November 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

We keep the House.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 9:24 PM

We’re going to win the Big House. Flora, keep the faith!

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Screw this, O’Reilley is right about the minorities and the takers. A majority of the country vote to become Greece.

bayview on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Wisconsin for Obama. OMG

txmomof6 on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

They’re calling WI for Obie.

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

We keep the House.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 9:24 PM

I can’t even shake my pom poms. Fold like a lawnchair Boehner will now give Obama everything he wants.

Firefly_76 on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Fox calling Wis for Zero, with +/-13,000 votes in

adoubledot on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

Fox calls Wisconsin for POS.

they lie on November 6, 2012 at 9:26 PM

It is uneffingbelievable that there are so many stupid people in this country. Moochers aside, it’s still incredible. It’s not looking good. I didn’t think PA or MI would be called that fast. I’m mentally preparing for another 4 years of the Communist in Chief and Reid.

TxAnn56 on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Nervous. Only 62% of Miami Dade counted.

johnboy on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

why is fox calling wisconsin already?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Obama will win WI per FNC

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Wtf

Fox calls wis for obama. 41% o. To 58% r with less yhan 1% in???

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Romney pulling further ahead in Florida.

Romney / Ryan REP 3,501,916 49.71%
Obama / Biden DEM 3,481,719 49.43%

This is from FL’s Division of Elections

Kirin on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

WI gone with <1% reporting wtf?

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 6, 2012 at 9:29 PM

if obama wins, i’m applying for food stamps tomorrow. I want free stuff too.

phatfawzi on November 6, 2012 at 9:30 PM

why is fox calling wisconsin already?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Has to be exit polling.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 6, 2012 at 9:30 PM

I hate Pennsylvania. My wife and I are moving far away from these morons.

bandutski on November 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM

I take it you haven’t lived in PA long. Otherwise you would know that the only reason PA goes blue is because of Philly. The rest of the state is quite conservative.

DethMetalCookieMonst on November 6, 2012 at 9:30 PM

wtf is right

ORconservative on November 6, 2012 at 9:31 PM

EVs = 153/153

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 9:31 PM

FOX won’t even keep the electoral count up on their screen. I can’t believe what an enormous disappointment this is. What were Americans thinking?!

BettyRuth on November 6, 2012 at 9:31 PM

Drudge has Wy for Obama and WI for Romney. Idiot.

kit9 on November 6, 2012 at 9:31 PM

153 to 153. Not what I was expecting at this time of night.

Tennman on November 6, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Biggest stunner. Ever.

This country is done. Forever.

kevinkristy on November 6, 2012 at 9:32 PM

11pm ET is bed time everybody.

A status quo election. Everything stays the same.

Carnac on November 6, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Biggest stunner. Ever.

This country is done. Forever.

kevinkristy on November 6, 2012 at 9:32 PM

As a free republic yes. As a socialist failure a la Greece, no.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on November 6, 2012 at 9:33 PM

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