8 pm: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

posted at 7:31 pm on November 6, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Of the eighteen states with polling stations closing within the 8 — 8:59 PM Eastern window, the three we’re concerned about, of course, are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and New Hampshire (4).

As Allahpundit summed up in his handy-dandy Electoral Math Made Easy primer yesterday, winning Florida is basically a prerequisite for the Romney campaign; its 29 electoral votes may be too many to do without. Fortunately, Romney’s maintained one of his better leaning-red battleground commands in Florida, along with North Carolina, and many polls have Romney winning with the senior demographic. As for Senate races, we’ve got Connie Mack (R) v. Bill Nelson (D), and the polls have all been steadily leaning in Nelson’s favor. Check their state returns here.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes last went Republican for G.W. in 2000, but Obama’s only averaging a slim lead there — will the lack of anti-Bush sentiment of 2004 and the lack of Hopenchange of 2008 be enough to flip them back to red? No Senate races here, but they are running a governor’s race between Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Maggie Hassan (D), which is leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group — they’ve gone blue in the presidential vote for decades now, but they’re perfectly capable of voting red down the ticket, which they did in 2010. After various accusations of Romney’s “flailing” “desperation” from various members of Team O, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter acknowledged last night that the contest for Pennsylvania has definitely tightened, and Romney’s recent campaign push into the state has had them visibly nervous. As Allahpundit also already pointed out in his thread, word on the street is that the “bitter clingers” are showing up in relatively full force in the rural counties that Romney will likely need to overcome an urban deficit. Their Senate race, Tom Smith (R) v. Bob Casey (D) has been leaning Democratic, and here’s their state returns page, for you viewing pleasure.

I’ll keep you updated on these states here as the results roll in, and for some live updates and analysis, be sure to tune in and listen to Ed on the Hugh Hewitt show!

Update: The polls are officially closed, but as President Obama helpfully reminds us, if you’re in line when the polls close, you’re still good to vote — and it’s looking like certain Florida lines are still long. This could take awhile.

Update: Yup, via Politico:

Voting is continuing into the night Tuesday at a condo tower south of downtown here where “Hispanics for Obama” placards compete with an anti-communist poster taped to a palmetto bush — and where some residents say they’ve waited as long six hours to cast their ballots. …

“It’s not going well at all,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said as he trudged through the parking lot while people in the parking lot yelled, “Shame on you” and “Venezuela runs better elections.”

Hundreds more were still waitng in a line snaking through the parking lot well past the official 7 p.m. EST closing time for the polls. (Polls close an hour later for Florida Panhandle counties that are on Central Time.)

Update: Chuck Todd just offered the rundown of the numbers coming in in Florida for NBC — Democrats are officially leading with the early vote tally, but not by nearly as much as Obama’s 2008 totals. Todd also noted that experts on both sides are predicting the state could come down to a difference of less than 100,000 votes, and thinks that, if it should come down to less than 50,000 votes, we could be looking at legal challenges. Oof.

Update: Bill Nelson, the Democrat, won his third term in Florida’s Senate seat over Connie Mack.

Update: They’ve just called Pennsylvania — it’s going blue.

Update: Fox News is calling New Hampshire for Obama, and the networks are saying that Florida is resting on a knife’s edge with 84% reporting.

Update: Aaaand, it looks like the fate of Florida’s votes won’t matter, as the networks are calling Ohio for Obama, meaning he’ll have passed the threshold of necessary electoral votes.


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I know opinions are mixed here on Karl Rove but do listen to what he’s saying…

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Drudge has R 51% O 48%. What is that, the current national vote, Florida, or exit polling?

midgeorgian on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

It’s the national vote.

Great point by Rove: we’re just getting through the Early Vote, and will now start to see Today’s Vote come in.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Thank you, gophergirl! We forgot Storage Wars is on. You just saved us from Joe Trippi.

tuffy on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Love this

ENOUGH! LET’S COUNT!
R 52% O 47%

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Drudge has R 51% O 48%. What is that, the current national vote, Florida, or exit polling?

midgeorgian on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Current Nat’l #s

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

I don’t understand any of this. If it doesn’t look like a landslide fir Romney, then in depressed. I’m depressed.

Alana on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Romney’s ahead in Michigan

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

I know opinions are mixed here on Karl Rove but do listen to what he’s saying…

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

My twinge of fear is gone after listening to him.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

BECAUSE there are so many people in line, yet !
Yay !!

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Shep Smith and the gang seem to be indicating that Romney is doomed in FL due to early voting numbers.

dczombie on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Karl Rove is setting things straight.

jazzmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Drudge has R 51% O 48%.

Real Clear Politics has the same numbers, but they give context:

G. Charles on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Oh that’s right! Panhandle still has 32 minutes left.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Looks like someone finally noticed Leon County and fixed it. Wonder if that was the only county where reporting was screwed up.

AngusMc on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

hang with rove. be patient. we are seeing the early voting in florida…now comes the election day votes. romney’s got it…will get VA, too. people are still voting there because of teh long lines.

gracie on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Rove, a sense of sanity….pace ourselves folks….

hillsoftx on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

What’s going on with the reporting in Florida and Virginia? This is madness and if it keeps people west of the Mississippi from going to to the polls, I’m going to be pissed.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

The polls just closed 27 minutes ago in FL. VA has stopped reporting because they are letting those who were in line when the polls close cast their vote.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Rove likes Ohio.

John the Libertarian on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Rove is upbeat, I hope he is right

tbrickert on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Looks like the I4 corridor is moving toward Romney now!

CableDude on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Don’t go gettin’ discouraged right now. It’s still wa-a-a-y early’

I don’t understand, though, how some of these sites can be calling a state for someone with only 1%, 3%, or so, reporting. I’d think they’d wait for some stronger numbers.

Solaratov on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

NC governor went GOP

YEAH

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

my home county of brevard is for obama so far in florida
arrgghhh

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Howdy, neighbor. I’m just down the road from your home county: Indian River County (Vero Beach).

VibrioCocci on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Rove was happy for Romney, so that’s good.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Real Clear politics link

G. Charles on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Romney’s ahead in Michigan

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

OMG … Let it hold !!
Me loves my home state .. Do it, Ganders !!!

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

VibrioCocci on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

rockledge

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

…I can’t watch the tube…I’m getting anxiety!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Booya! back up on da threads!

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

ROVE: Early Vote has been sorted out, which Dems always win. Now Today’s Vote (with our huge turnout) begins to be counted.

This thing is far from over.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Finally! Broward. There’s the base line.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Cripes. CT Senate race got called – McMahon has lost. Again.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Panhandle starting to come in. Mitt up by 10k votes.. .

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Karl the brain just straightened everyone out over there at Fox. The numbers are looking good, don’t get wobbley!

boaje on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

He is invested in a Romney defeat so for weeks he can say it’s because he didn’t do his show. His schtick is tiring.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Yes, and he is acting as if Hurricane Sandy was a blunder on Romney’s part…as if Romney could exactly control that…but I still think that is crap. I do not think anyone changed their vote because Obama and Christie played nice after a hurricane.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Exactly, like what the heck was Romney supposed to do, how was it his fault that that iidiot Christie was PMS-ing during hurricane Sandy and was on a high on his mood swings vis a vis Obama. O’Reilly is an idiot, Romney couldn’t have done anythng about it, and I agree that Christie’s love story with obama during the hurricane didn’t count much. Maybe brought some 0.5% to obama, but that’s an optimistic figure.

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Evening all. Just got here from the 7pm thread and I’m about to go out to pick up a pizza.

NYT: O65 – R40 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/president
Ace: O60 – R86 http://www.aoshqdd.com/
Fox: O78 – R82 http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/

Results pretty noisy so far ;-)

gh on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Stay calm.

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Looks like the I4 corridor is moving toward Romney now!

CableDude on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Well, it did fora few minutes.

CableDude on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

And with that we get a correction on Broward, just as we expected. His lead is pretty huge in Hillsborough which is the main bellwether for the I-4 cooridor. Obama’s going to win Florida handily.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Everybody calm down….

Karl Rove (I know, I know) was just on FOX saying W.A.I.T…..he still is very, very positive about Romney in FLA and OH. Says it’s all dem districts in OH now. Wait for the Rep ones.

Lighten up, and don’t let all these damn new trolls get to you.

IrishEi on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Romney’s ahead in Michigan

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

OMG … Let it hold !!
Me loves my home state .. Do it, Ganders !!!

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

…ok!…I will sh!t my pants!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

EVs = R-88, 78-0

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Cripes. CT Senate race got called – McMahon has lost. Again.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Well, it’s CT.

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Arkansas called Romney.

surprise…

ted c on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Anyone have a link on where I can get a good national tally???

That show the % in, thanks…

MGardner on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

i’m just glad they took bor off teh stage. what a doofus.

gracie on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Link? I don’t see that on the Florida page:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-florida-state-race

AshleyTKing on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

…ok!…I will sh!t my pants!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I will shit your pants too.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Bunch of nervous drama queens posting tonight… ::rolls eyes::

rubberneck on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Rove is optimistic. He knows his counties and localities like only Barone does.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

He is good at explaining it too.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Everybody calm down….

Karl Rove (I know, I know) was just on FOX saying W.A.I.T…..he still is very, very positive about Romney in FLA and OH. Says it’s all dem districts in OH now. Wait for the Rep ones.

Lighten up, and don’t let all these damn new trolls get to you.

IrishEi on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

TROLLCOTT!!

Nutstuyu on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Cripes. CT Senate race got called – McMahon has lost. Again.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

…fluke!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

THE NIGHT IS VERY EARLY™

TXUS on November 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Florida is looking good. I don’t know what everyone is so eeyore about. Even Huffpo shows Obama’s turnout is FAR below 2008 levels??
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results/florida

rightallthetime on November 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

i’m just glad they took bor off teh stage. what a doofus.

gracie on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Yes, he is.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Yes. Everyone clam down.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

He is invested in a Romney defeat so for weeks he can say it’s because he didn’t do his show. His schtick is tiring.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

And he will keep working to get that Obama Interview he wants so bad. But honestly, O’Reilly doesn’t know a damn thing about politics.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Yep. BOR is a dumbass.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Totally meaningless post. Please don’t waste the bandwidth.

UltimateBob on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

UltimateBob:

Dude,I’ve been waiting for this night,for over 4-5 years,

**************Your Harshing My BuzzaRoo **********************

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Bunch of nervous drama queens posting tonight… ::rolls eyes::

rubberneck on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

No kidding. They need an internet slap…or three.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

IrishEi on November 6, 2012 at 8:30 PM

TROLLCOTT!!

Nutstuyu on November 6, 2012 at 8:32 PM

..you’re right…they’ll be busy enough with their BS without anyone responding!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

If Obama wins, I ditch my Helath Savings account…..and look for a subsidized gubmint helath plan alternative.

Bring on the freebies, baby!

rickyricardo on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Arrrgggh! This is some sucky waitng!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

51/48 Obama leading in FL……not good.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Waaay?? Illinois is being called for Obama with only 1% reporting??

Nutstuyu on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I wish the Fox News folks would stop singing dirges. Sheesh.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

…ok!…I will sh!t my pants!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I will shit your pants too.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

HA!

score so far in Michigan…it’s early but maybe they want jobs?

R – 54
O – 45

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Check in at home, ya know what I mean…

ladyingray on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I do not have a good feeling about Florida. Romney losing the I-4 corridor and he has never really led overall in the state yet. Almost 50% of precincts reporting too.

Bravesbill on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Obama still leading in Florida with 57%! Someone talk me of of the ledge, please!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Florida is looking good. I don’t know what everyone is so eeyore about. Even Huffpo shows Obama’s turnout is FAR below 2008 levels??
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/results/florida

rightallthetime on November 6, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Waiting on the panhandle. Rove said that the Democrats always took an early lead because of early voting. But this is so close it is not even a lead…Hopefully those numbers will come on in soon.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Now I know why 70% of people fail Statistics 151… regardless of party or political ideology.

Odie1941 on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Chill over early vote totals coming in. Wait for the noise of some of the early vote totals to die down.

Ace has a confusing way of marking his map. So chill over that as well. He ought to have one color set for called states and a separate one for trends. Make sure you know whether or not it’s a state he’s called.

INC on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

I wish the Fox News folks would stop singing dirges. Sheesh.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

I wish my Dad would take my hint and hit the damn mute button.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

CBS talking heads (though they think Ohio is going O based on their exit polling) just pointed out that 1 Obama 2008 county that was worrying the Romney people with higher turnout…is actually going for Romney.

HitNRun on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Former Maine Gov. Angus King (independent) wins Senate contest, taking a seat held by Republican – @NBCNEws

1 min ago from nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com by editor

Democrat Chris Murphy elected to Senate in Connecticut, defeats pro wrestling magnate – @AP

3 mins ago by editor

CNN projects Romney to win Arkansas

4 mins ago by editor

CBS News projects Obama wins New Jersey

6 mins ago by editor

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Romney Takes Tennessee, Arkansas;
Ohio, Pa., Fla., Va. Too Close to Call

Fox

Note that PA doesn’t allow early voting, so Romney should be competitive there before the cities report.

I guess.

fiatboomer on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

NC & FL will go MItt.

VA is uncomfortably close, but I am cautiously optimistic.

This will be a 274-269 EV deal.

Norwegian on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

This is crazy. Looks like Ohio is a goner, Virginia looking good and Florida….I just don’t know

MoreLiberty on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Obama still leading in Florida with 57%! Someone talk me of of the ledge, please!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Panhandle.

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Waaay?? Illinois is being called for Obama with only 1% reporting??

Nutstuyu on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Illinois could have been called for Obama last year.

sharrukin on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

…ok!…I will sh!t my pants!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I will shit your pants too.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I’ve always felt this could happen, hence my POISE, um …. Oh, nevermind… LOL.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Check in at home, ya know what I mean…

ladyingray on November 6, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Ain’t got time – 3 windows and Fifth Element.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Obama still leading in Florida with 57%! Someone talk me of of the ledge, please!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Um. . . no he’s not.

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Stay calm and carry on…

d1carter on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I’m freaking out, I’m going to go play Back Ops and surf the net for land deals in Mexico.

KMC1 on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

This is going to be a nailbiter….fortunately the big BG states are in the CST and EST, so we might get a winner called before 1 or 2 am EST.

AngusMc on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

This is why I don’t watch this political crap on tv anymore. Too nerve-wracking. I check in on HA in between my DVRed shows. My heart thanks me for it.

squint on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Florida is too close and it’s still fluid…also they have a…ummmm…history

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

This is crazy. Looks like Ohio is a goner, Virginia looking good and Florida….I just don’t know

MoreLiberty on November 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Ohio’s still out there. Be on your guard.

It seems Rasmussen was right – this thing’s going to be a nailbiter.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

NC governor went GOP

YEAH

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

Wasn’t the current Gov the one who suggested we should cancel the 2010 election?

Good riddance.

Lost in Jersey on November 6, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Starting to calm down now after hearing Rove. He makes perfect sense. Breathe. Deep. Going to get a glass of wine…this is just too much!

Nikkia2112 on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Someone talk me of of the ledge, please!

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Be a man…jump.

Save us the whining.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Florida, just Florida:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-florida-state-race

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

INC on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

With ya … Chillin’.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

How the hell are you guys seeing Rove? I’ve got Shep Smith on Fox with some dumbos that don’t know jack. Where you getting Rove?

dczombie on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

I think Florida will be a clusterf*ck in counting…I think they like the drama?

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

…ok!…I will sh!t my pants!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I will shit your pants too.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:31 PM

…I needed that laugh!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

gotta take a break

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

CLAM DOWN!

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Hey, it ain’t over to til the fat lady sings. “Candy Crowley, call your office”.

MikeA on November 6, 2012 at 8:41 PM

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