8 pm: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

posted at 7:31 pm on November 6, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Of the eighteen states with polling stations closing within the 8 — 8:59 PM Eastern window, the three we’re concerned about, of course, are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and New Hampshire (4).

As Allahpundit summed up in his handy-dandy Electoral Math Made Easy primer yesterday, winning Florida is basically a prerequisite for the Romney campaign; its 29 electoral votes may be too many to do without. Fortunately, Romney’s maintained one of his better leaning-red battleground commands in Florida, along with North Carolina, and many polls have Romney winning with the senior demographic. As for Senate races, we’ve got Connie Mack (R) v. Bill Nelson (D), and the polls have all been steadily leaning in Nelson’s favor. Check their state returns here.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes last went Republican for G.W. in 2000, but Obama’s only averaging a slim lead there — will the lack of anti-Bush sentiment of 2004 and the lack of Hopenchange of 2008 be enough to flip them back to red? No Senate races here, but they are running a governor’s race between Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Maggie Hassan (D), which is leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group — they’ve gone blue in the presidential vote for decades now, but they’re perfectly capable of voting red down the ticket, which they did in 2010. After various accusations of Romney’s “flailing” “desperation” from various members of Team O, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter acknowledged last night that the contest for Pennsylvania has definitely tightened, and Romney’s recent campaign push into the state has had them visibly nervous. As Allahpundit also already pointed out in his thread, word on the street is that the “bitter clingers” are showing up in relatively full force in the rural counties that Romney will likely need to overcome an urban deficit. Their Senate race, Tom Smith (R) v. Bob Casey (D) has been leaning Democratic, and here’s their state returns page, for you viewing pleasure.

I’ll keep you updated on these states here as the results roll in, and for some live updates and analysis, be sure to tune in and listen to Ed on the Hugh Hewitt show!

Update: The polls are officially closed, but as President Obama helpfully reminds us, if you’re in line when the polls close, you’re still good to vote — and it’s looking like certain Florida lines are still long. This could take awhile.

Update: Yup, via Politico:

Voting is continuing into the night Tuesday at a condo tower south of downtown here where “Hispanics for Obama” placards compete with an anti-communist poster taped to a palmetto bush — and where some residents say they’ve waited as long six hours to cast their ballots. …

“It’s not going well at all,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said as he trudged through the parking lot while people in the parking lot yelled, “Shame on you” and “Venezuela runs better elections.”

Hundreds more were still waitng in a line snaking through the parking lot well past the official 7 p.m. EST closing time for the polls. (Polls close an hour later for Florida Panhandle counties that are on Central Time.)

Update: Chuck Todd just offered the rundown of the numbers coming in in Florida for NBC — Democrats are officially leading with the early vote tally, but not by nearly as much as Obama’s 2008 totals. Todd also noted that experts on both sides are predicting the state could come down to a difference of less than 100,000 votes, and thinks that, if it should come down to less than 50,000 votes, we could be looking at legal challenges. Oof.

Update: Bill Nelson, the Democrat, won his third term in Florida’s Senate seat over Connie Mack.

Update: They’ve just called Pennsylvania — it’s going blue.

Update: Fox News is calling New Hampshire for Obama, and the networks are saying that Florida is resting on a knife’s edge with 84% reporting.

Update: Aaaand, it looks like the fate of Florida’s votes won’t matter, as the networks are calling Ohio for Obama, meaning he’ll have passed the threshold of necessary electoral votes.


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Florida Department of States

Romney / Ryan REP 2,603,481 48.51%

Obama / Biden DEM 2,722,054 50.72%

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

O’Reilly said it best there is 5o% of the country that wants free stuff. It looks like the polls were right so much for skewed demographics. This is depressing.

tbrickert on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Okay I’m starting to have a twinge of fear.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

AP calling Bill Nelson the winner over Connie Mack.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

No surprise there. I’m pretty sure we can forget about a Senate majority.

And now, I’m feeling a lot less optimistic about Mitt’s chances.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Let me just say that if these Fox News blowhards are right and we did lose this because of Hurricane Sandy, then I want a full effort on the right here at Hot Gas and over at Redstate to get a primary challenger for that fat turd Chris Christie. I don’t care even if it means Gov. Booker. If Christie’s bipartisan slobbering gave us four more of Obama, he needs to be out of politics.

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

I’ll panic when Romney loses Texas.

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-florida-state-race

Might still have this.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Via Levin : VA still too close to call.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Expectations management: my hopes for this hour are only a good call for North Carolina. And that may not happen– as long as it looks good I’m happy

johnny alpha on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Did Obama carry West Virginia?

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

The Florida numbers are encouraging if you know anything about politics. Obama is up because of early voting and the fact that the panhandle has not been counted.

ModerateMan on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Per Fox page:

51R
49o

in fla with NO panhandle yet.

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

But wait, Del Dolemonte always comes and pitifully tries to insult Al Gore by pointing out how that guy didn’t win HIS home state. Surely that would mean Romney losing MA also makes HIM a miserable failure.

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Straw man.

CW on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I just can’t understand this. $6TRILLION in new debt, a health care “mandate”, Benghazi, fast & furious, and on and on…..and these freaking idiots still support the guy.

I’m going to throw up.

KMC1 on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Eh, if Bark is reelected these are the first states that will feel the pain and there are no more deserving people of that fate in this nation.

Take heart, the coasts are gone.

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Mitt finally ahead in FL, just over 50 percent in.

2,136,626 O

51%

2,235,065 R

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

AP calling Bill Nelson the winner over Connie Mack.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

May both of them rot in Abyss. What was wrong with Le Mieux?!

Archivarix on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

HURRICANE SANDY WINS IT FOR BAMA

What a JOKE everyone, including FOX, in the media is.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

No kidding. Rush Limbaugh was calling bullsh*t on this earlier today. People do not suddenly change their vote because of something like that…and speaking of pictures, people freezing in the dark and eating out of dumpsters and sitting in gas lines does not exactly look good to people.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Okay I’m starting to have a twinge of fear.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Ditto

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

The west part of FL closes an hour after the east, I think.
Pretty sure it’s full of Rs.

RedCrow on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Ace switched NC to light blue and Ohio blue. Whatever.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, WTF is that?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

It automatically switches based off of who’s up in actual reported numbers. So it could flip back and forth with only 1 or 2% of the vote.

It’s not a projection.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

The pan handle will come through!

AshleyTKing on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Nervous, but snockered, so take it for what it’s worth … LOL.
TIME … This all takes TIME !!!

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Fox 51 Romney Obama 49

Barred on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Did Obama carry West Virginia?

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

No. CNN and Fox have already called WV for Romney.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

enough of BOR….move on FOX…

hillsoftx on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

DANG IT

my home county of brevard is for obama so far in florida
arrgghhh

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Angus King has won in Maine. So much for that, I guess.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Okay I’m starting to have a twinge of fear.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Where’s bgibbs?

I want my money!

I TOLD YOU SO, YOU IDIOTS

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Markaloutis’s pool boy checks in!

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Now Fox has Florida with most counties but panhandle in

52% counted

R – 51

O- 49

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

May both of them rot in Abyss. What was wrong with Le Mieux?!

Archivarix on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

LeMieux once said he was a “Charlie Crist Republican”?

Wethal on November 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

There goes Bill O again calling the election based on ….exit poll data in NH. Why is that guy even on tonight???

boaje on November 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

I’m feeling really, really sick. I can’t bear 4 more yrs. of that man.

jatfla on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Relax, it is an easy victory for R&R. The numbers come quick and they up your blood pressure but this is a lock for Gov Romney.

Panther on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Can we just seal FL and NC and VA…so we can get really nervous!

hillsoftx on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

IT’S EARLY PEOPLE!!!!!!!!!

Don’t let the professional chatterboxes get to you.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Frosty cold beverage prepared. Awaiting results. C’mon, Mitt.

Philly on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Let me just say that if these Fox News blowhards are right and we did lose this because of Hurricane Sandy, then I want a full effort on the right here at Hot Gas and over at Redstate to get a primary challenger for that fat turd Chris Christie. I don’t care even if it means Gov. Booker. If Christie’s bipartisan slobbering gave us four more of Obama, he needs to be out of politics.

Gingotts on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

There is absolutely no evidence that anything they said was true. None..they are just running their mouths. They like to see that sort of thing and so they think it matters to other people…but really it does not. Besides, things are looking pretty crappy out there right now. NJ and Queens are not exactly something to brag about.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

breitbart’s site seems to be down. Wonder if their servers were flooded or attacked.

karenhasfreedom on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Evs = 82-R , 78-0

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Oh boy, the libs are out tonight.

ORconservative on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

At their best, they’re amusing (like poodles!), at their worst they’re tedious (like poodles!). But as always, they are intrinsically twisted little things.

squint on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

HD, Mitt is ahead with 50% in. He will take the majority of what remains.

Therefore FL is his right?

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Don’t let the professional chatterboxes get to you.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I wish I was alone – I would have the channel on Storage Wars or muted.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

I’m still waiting. They are calling the safe states, of course. Relax!! Have a drink. It’s going to be a good night!!!

JAM on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Viriginia is going to pause tallying, asked Obama and Romney and both agreed. Dang.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Mitt pulling away in FL.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Fox electoral count

R – 82

O – 79

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

May both of them rot in Abyss. What was wrong with Le Mieux?!

Archivarix on November 6, 2012 at 8:14 PM

IMO he was chased out by the powers that be in FL. The Macks are an old political famly.

INC on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Haha, someone flipped the Broward county figures from Obama to Romney and now that puts Romney in the lead. Should be corrected soon.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Did Obama carry West Virginia?

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

…no!

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

There goes Bill O again calling the election based on ….exit poll data in NH. Why is that guy even on tonight???

boaje on November 6, 2012 at 8:16 PM

He is invested in a Romney defeat so for weeks he can say it’s because he didn’t do his show. His schtick is tiring.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Let’s take a DEEP breath … and not panic. Remember John Kerry was celebrating his presidency based on early results! It’s NOT over.

Nicole Coulter on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Looks to me like Romney 2012 is running about 2-3 points ahead of McCain 2008 in Florida counties that have submitted returns already. Should be good enough to win.

However, it also looks to me like Romeny is running behind McCain in most Ohio counties.

DaveO on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

what?????

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Exactly !!
Chill ! Time .. It’s so danged early, and this instantaneous media junk can drive us all nutso !
CHILL !! Breathe !!! :-)

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Obama will break you!!!!

Rio Linda Refugee on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

THE NIGHT IS EARLY™

TXUS on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I’m getting sick to my stomach

p0s3r on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Totally meaningless post. Please don’t waste the bandwidth.

UltimateBob on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Mitt pulling away in FL.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

That didn’t last, he’s down again.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

This is where Mitt leaves Barry in the dust in FL.

It just gets worse for Barry from here on out in FL.

FL is a nonissue now.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

If Obama wins I am going to get drunk because of frustration and fear. If Romney wins I’m going to get drunk because of happiness. I’ve got my bases covered.

kam582 on November 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I wish I was alone – I would have the channel on Storage Wars or muted.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Do what I do when my husband’s idiot xbox gets irritating – hide in the bedroom with a book. Seriously. Take a few minutes and go read or listen to music or even hide in the bathroom.

We’re going to do this.

kim roy on November 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Everyone relax.

It’s early.

And worst case, if Romney loses, we’ll have a true picture of what kind of country America wants to be so we can all plan accordingly.

BadgerHawk on November 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Kewl … Breathe, folks !!

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

I TOLD YOU SO, YOU IDIOTS

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Are you going to be here after Romney wins? Because it would be sorry in a disgusting way if you just bailed.

Wish they’d count Broward already.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group

lol

Flapjackmaka on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

if Romney can’t win Virginia how does he win PA?

So much for the Landslide.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

FL Department of State

Romney / Ryan REP 2,883,319 49.1%

Obama / Biden DEM 2,941,265 50.09%

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

@Judgenap

When the public treasury becomes a public trough & voters recognize that, they’ll vote for those who promise them a bigger piece of the pie

1 minute ago

If this is the case say “good night America”.

Globex is down 60.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

STEADY, KIDS.

DON’T EVEN THINK FOR A SECOND THIS IS OVER.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Where did all the eeyores come from? I was as pessimistic as anyone before tonight, but it’s only 8:20.

midgeorgian on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

He is invested in a Romney defeat so for weeks he can say it’s because he didn’t do his show. His schtick is tiring.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

And he will keep working to get that Obama Interview he wants so bad. But honestly, O’Reilly doesn’t know a damn thing about politics.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Nicole Coulter on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

And, do not forget the GORE fiasco !! LOL.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:18 PM

what?????

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Fox reported. Due to long lines. If you show up by 7 you get to vote and I guess they don’t want number trickling out

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Hillsboro is romp for Rommey. Outpeforms by 11 this wont be long folks. The red zone is ahead. Rommey blowout now visible.

nicknack60 on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

He is invested in a Romney defeat so for weeks he can say it’s because he didn’t do his show. His schtick is tiring.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Yes, and he is acting as if Hurricane Sandy was a blunder on Romney’s part…as if Romney could exactly control that…but I still think that is crap. I do not think anyone changed their vote because Obama and Christie played nice after a hurricane.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Don’t feed the trolls. They won’t be here if Romney wins. If Virginia and NC had been called, they would already be gone.

HitNRun on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Where did all the eeyores come from? I was as pessimistic as anyone before tonight, but it’s only 8:20.

midgeorgian on November 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

It’s the constant talking heads. Driving me nuts.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Ugh, what’s really bothering me is Virginia looks terrible. Romney is barely outperforming McCain there.

LukeinNE on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

cnn is not calling alot of the states as fox is….

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

I think vote counters in the Florida Panhandle are out to dinner or somethin’

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Someone is reporting some wrong results in FL. Right now CNN has Romney winning 60+ of the vote in Leon, which is impossible. Even Kerry won that with 62%. Likewise, the county just south of it always votes GOP and they have Obama winning it easily. Screwed up reporting

AngusMc on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

GUYS VA COUNTIES ARE HOLDING OUT ON RELEASING THEIR DATA

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Bill O’Reilly is an idiot.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Drudge has R 51% O 48%. What is that, the current national vote, Florida, or exit polling?

midgeorgian on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:23 PM

thanks

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:25 PM

I think vote counters in the Florida Panhandle are out to dinner or somethin’

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Polls don’t close until 8 central time.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Rove analyzing the results they do have for Virginia-says it’s good for Romney based on three swing counties. It is paused-tallying in Va.

levi on November 6, 2012 at 8:25 PM

NUMBERS……Rove/Trippi

Obama back in the lead in Florida.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Rove is making me less tense.

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

FWIW
Kentucky poll avg Romney +14 Actual Vote R+18 61% complete

Indiana Polls R+9.5 Actual R+12 30% complete

G. Charles on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Fox site went from 53% reporting to 51% in Florida…huh?

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Glad Rove is in the house…

OmahaConservative on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Rove is optimistic. He knows his counties and localities like only Barone does.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Whoops CNN reported bad numbers for Hillboro. Rommey still outperforming but only by 3.

nicknack60 on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Someone is reporting some wrong results in FL. Right now CNN has Romney winning 60+ of the vote in Leon, which is impossible. Even Kerry won that with 62%. Likewise, the county just south of it always votes GOP and they have Obama winning it easily. Screwed up reporting

AngusMc on November 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

http://enight.dos.state.fl.us/MyElection/County/?sid=LeonCounty&referral=track

Romney / Ryan REP 2,922,478 49.2%
Obama / Biden DEM 2,969,588 49.99%

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Where’s bgibbs?

I want my money!

I TOLD YOU SO, YOU IDIOTS

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I’m here but it’s not over yet.

bgibbs1000 on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

What’s going on with the reporting in Florida and Virginia? This is madness and if it keeps people west of the Mississippi from going to to the polls, I’m going to be pissed.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

@CBSDenver tweeted:
CBSDenver
#BreakingNews; @CBSNews projects Arkansas for Gov. Romney and New Jersey for President Obama. #Election2012 http://t.co/HxCK0Ab5

2 mins ago from twitter.com by partner

@nbcwashington tweeted:
nbcwashington
#Breaking: @NBCNews projects that Ben Cardin has won the election for U.S. Senator from Maryland http://t.co/daSOgIWj

4 mins ago from twitter.com by partner
=============================================

http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/elections

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:26 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 PM

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