8 pm: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

posted at 7:31 pm on November 6, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Of the eighteen states with polling stations closing within the 8 — 8:59 PM Eastern window, the three we’re concerned about, of course, are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and New Hampshire (4).

As Allahpundit summed up in his handy-dandy Electoral Math Made Easy primer yesterday, winning Florida is basically a prerequisite for the Romney campaign; its 29 electoral votes may be too many to do without. Fortunately, Romney’s maintained one of his better leaning-red battleground commands in Florida, along with North Carolina, and many polls have Romney winning with the senior demographic. As for Senate races, we’ve got Connie Mack (R) v. Bill Nelson (D), and the polls have all been steadily leaning in Nelson’s favor. Check their state returns here.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes last went Republican for G.W. in 2000, but Obama’s only averaging a slim lead there — will the lack of anti-Bush sentiment of 2004 and the lack of Hopenchange of 2008 be enough to flip them back to red? No Senate races here, but they are running a governor’s race between Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Maggie Hassan (D), which is leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group — they’ve gone blue in the presidential vote for decades now, but they’re perfectly capable of voting red down the ticket, which they did in 2010. After various accusations of Romney’s “flailing” “desperation” from various members of Team O, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter acknowledged last night that the contest for Pennsylvania has definitely tightened, and Romney’s recent campaign push into the state has had them visibly nervous. As Allahpundit also already pointed out in his thread, word on the street is that the “bitter clingers” are showing up in relatively full force in the rural counties that Romney will likely need to overcome an urban deficit. Their Senate race, Tom Smith (R) v. Bob Casey (D) has been leaning Democratic, and here’s their state returns page, for you viewing pleasure.

I’ll keep you updated on these states here as the results roll in, and for some live updates and analysis, be sure to tune in and listen to Ed on the Hugh Hewitt show!

Update: The polls are officially closed, but as President Obama helpfully reminds us, if you’re in line when the polls close, you’re still good to vote — and it’s looking like certain Florida lines are still long. This could take awhile.

Update: Yup, via Politico:

Voting is continuing into the night Tuesday at a condo tower south of downtown here where “Hispanics for Obama” placards compete with an anti-communist poster taped to a palmetto bush — and where some residents say they’ve waited as long six hours to cast their ballots. …

“It’s not going well at all,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said as he trudged through the parking lot while people in the parking lot yelled, “Shame on you” and “Venezuela runs better elections.”

Hundreds more were still waitng in a line snaking through the parking lot well past the official 7 p.m. EST closing time for the polls. (Polls close an hour later for Florida Panhandle counties that are on Central Time.)

Update: Chuck Todd just offered the rundown of the numbers coming in in Florida for NBC — Democrats are officially leading with the early vote tally, but not by nearly as much as Obama’s 2008 totals. Todd also noted that experts on both sides are predicting the state could come down to a difference of less than 100,000 votes, and thinks that, if it should come down to less than 50,000 votes, we could be looking at legal challenges. Oof.

Update: Bill Nelson, the Democrat, won his third term in Florida’s Senate seat over Connie Mack.

Update: They’ve just called Pennsylvania — it’s going blue.

Update: Fox News is calling New Hampshire for Obama, and the networks are saying that Florida is resting on a knife’s edge with 84% reporting.

Update: Aaaand, it looks like the fate of Florida’s votes won’t matter, as the networks are calling Ohio for Obama, meaning he’ll have passed the threshold of necessary electoral votes.


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Florida Pan Handle is where the votes are, Mitt was ahead of Bush 04 in Southern Florida i think they were saying in the other thread. Try to relax a little and see how it pans out.

WashingtonsWake on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

NO!

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Was just kidding him. He called it last night :)

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Here. Take these. They’re menthols.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

My housemate smokes menthols. I might end up with one.

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Ace switched NC to light blue and Ohio blue. Whatever.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, WTF is that?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

waiting for the TEANAMI 2!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

America is pretty stupid, already

ENOUGH! LET’S COUNT!
R 50% O 49%

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

What the hell is wrong with those people in Vermont ?

Guilt?

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

The TROLLCOTT is still on, isn’t it? Why oh why won’t they go play with their own kind?

texgal on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Have you met their kind? They’re awful. No wonder they’re here with all you wonderful people!

squint on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I just tried to fast forward my DVR to get the results quicker. Oops!

Security Mom on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Try to relax a little and see how it pans out.

WashingtonsWake on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Easier said than done! ;-)

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Yeah, WTF is that?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Do yourself a favor and stop reporting “calls” from Ace’s desk.

NC and OH have each reported less than 10% of the vote. We don’t know the results yet, okay?

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Let not your heart be troubled Lass,
Romney has the I-4 corridor… panhandle is HEAVY Rep..and has not even closed yet.. FL will go Romney 52-47, 51-48 worst case.

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

From your lips to God’s ears.

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

T-Minus 9 minites to poll closure in the SunShine State!

http://enight.elections.myflorida.com/

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM


T R O L L C O T T…!!!
.
.
….f l u k e ‘E M…

KOOLAID2 on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I gotta admit, I have never been this apprehensive about a presidential election in my life. I knew in 2008 that the now SCFOAMF would smoke McCain, despite having Gov. Sarah Palin as his VP nominee.

Gothguy on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Ace switched NC to light blue and Ohio blue. Whatever.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, WTF is that?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Guys, chill. He’s reporting results as they come in and the map changes color depending on who is in the lead of the current vote totals they have. He’s not “changing the color” or “calling” anything, they’re just reporting results.

Doomberg on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Ugh, why is it taking any time to call NC? Would hope that would have been called at poll closing.

ak90049 on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I guess since I dont work until tommorow afternoon I can celibrate or drown my sorrow til thr early hours.

Jason Taylor Sacked You on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Maryland called for Romney. And in other news hell has frozen over.

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Hmmmm…

Urban Infidel on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

What the hell is wrong with those people in Vermont ?

Guilt?

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Ben and Jerry’s.

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Ace switched NC to light blue and Ohio blue. Whatever.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, WTF is that?

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Guys, chill. He’s reporting results as they come in and the map changes color depending on who is in the lead of the current vote totals they have. He’s not “changing the color” or “calling” anything, they’re just reporting results.

Doomberg on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Ah, thx.

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Juan again. I am wearing this mute button out.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Florida looking bad, per NRO:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332804/not-so-much-sunshine-henry-olsen

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Well it’s looking more and more like the polls were right. I was fooled in 08, convincing myself they were wrong and McCain had a shot. Obviously this is a much closer race, but I wasn’t going to be burned again by delusion.

Maybe after this one you guys will admit the polls tend to be right? I know, it sucks to admit, but atleast where I’m standing I’m not as shocked or disappointed since I basically expected this. Hope you guys hold up and don’t go all circular firing line and bash Romney — who did everything he could possibly do and then some.

Unfortunately it’s not looking like it’s enough. Game over, folks.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

ENOUGH! LET’S COUNT!
R 51% O 48%

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Fox has the national vote at 50% Romney, 49% SCoAMF

UltimateBob on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

What the hell is wrong with those people in Vermont ?

Guilt?

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Bernie Sanders – (S)ocialist VT

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

I can’t believe that creep Grayson is going to win in Florida!
AGH!

Barred on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

LOL .., Levin says ‘nothing to report, except that figures are coming in’ ..
Chill, y’all. :-)

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Maryland called for Romney. And in other news hell has frozen over.

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

WHAT????

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Here we go!

HornetSting on November 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Guy people are effin’ nuts!

If y’all were dealing with results a decade ago, the stress would have killed y’all by now.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM

I can’t help it guys…I have a terrible sinking feeling. Talk me off the ledge!

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM

At 8 pm, polls close in Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, more – @nationaljournal

44 secs ago from http://www.nationaljournal.com by editor

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

i’m back…mr cmsinaz made a great pork tenderloin

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I will NOT listen to Juan Williams on Fox.

And Brit Hume basically said its over. Obama is carrying women by 8 and they make up 54% of voters.

Condoms and Contraception for the whores that vote. Sounds like a winning strategy.

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Concern troll.

DRayRaven on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Talk me off the ledge!

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 8:00 PM

You voted already, right?

JUMP, save us the teenage angst.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I can’t believe that creep Grayson is going to win in Florida!
AGH!

Barred on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

You’ve got to be kidding me, not that loser, Pls!!

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

41% of votes in Florida…..OBAMA AHEAD.

TEATERNAMI!!!!

Latch on America!

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:56 PM

FL panhandle is BIG TIME retired military !!
:-)

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Florida looking bad, per NRO:
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332804/not-so-much-sunshine-henry-olsen

blue13326 on November 6, 2012 at 7:59 PM

If Romney can’t win Florida, this thing will be over very early. And I’ll have officially lost all hope for this nation.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

mitt lost massachusetts, is that a bad sign since it is his ‘home state’?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Love that! I am grilling a London Broil.

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Maryland went to obama, who said that it went to Romney? Where did that one come from?

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Panhandle of Florida is going to help.

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Times are adjusted to Eastern Standard Time. States such as Kentucky are about evenly divided by time zone.

Time 4 p.m. EST

Puerto Rico

6 p.m. EST

Virgin Islands

Kentucky

EST Indiana

7 p.m. EST

Virginia

South Carolina

Indiana (Partial)

Georgia

Florida

Kentucky (CST portion)

Vermont

7:30 p.m. EST

North Carolina

West Virginia

Ohio

8 p.m. EST

Alabama

Connecticut

Delaware

Maine

D.C.

Florida (partial)

Illinois

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Mississippi

Missouri

Oklahoma

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Dakota (CST portion)

New Hampshire

New Jersey

Tennessee

Texas

8:30 p.m. EST

Arkansas

9 p.m. EST

Arizona

Colorado

Kansas

Louisiana

Michigan (partial)

Minnesota

Nebraska

New Mexico

New York

South Dakota (MST portion)

Wisconsin

Wyoming

Texas (partial)

10 p.m. EST

Idaho (MST portion)

Iowa

Kansas (partial)

Montana

Nevada

North Dakota

Oregon (partial)

Utah

11 p.m. EST

Idaho (PST portion)

California

Hawaii

North Dakota (partial)

Oregon

Midnight EST

Alaska

American Samoa

1 a.m. EST

Alaska (partial)

4 a.m. EST

Northern Marianas

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

VICTORY!11!!!11…

SMACKRUNNER on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

You voted already, right?

JUMP, save us the teenage angst.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I haven’t been a teenager for thirty years. But thanks for the kind words…you’re just too much.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

mitt lost massachusetts, is that a bad sign since it is his ‘home state’?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

You are very funny.

Chudi on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

##You right wing rubes need to accept the fact that Rmoney is a loser looohoozer !!!!

Rio Linda Refugee on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

yum

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

EVs, 78 0, 71 R

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Y’all are drivin’ me to drink!

And I need to stay sober.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

mitt lost massachusetts, is that a bad sign since it is his ‘home state’?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

MA was never in play other than for the senate seat. So it doesn’t mean anything.

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

##You right wing rubes need to accept the fact that Rmoney is a loser looohoozer !!!!

Rio Linda Refugee on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

There you are, Gumbo!

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Chudi on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

:)

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

What happened to that 6 point lead in Florida???

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

12% counted in Florida and Obama at 50.8% according to NYT. Panhandle tends to be more conservative so it could still swing. Still shouldn’t be this close.

sharrukin on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

electoral count so far at FOX

O – 79

R – 71

Map

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2012-election-results/

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

mitt lost massachusetts, is that a bad sign since it is his ‘home state’?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Not really.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I call BS on anyone saying it,s over for R&R … Not with the turnout today .. Nope.
Time, patience, et al.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Maryland called for Romney. And in other news hell has frozen over.

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Don’t I wish.

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Maryland called for Romney. And in other news hell has frozen over.

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I was a long time resident of Maryland, this would be impossible. Way too many libs in Montgomery, PG and Anne Arundel.

Rambotito on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

So how’s that “landslide” thing working out that all you clowns were boasting about on yesterday’s threads and on Patrick’s poll?

Surely a landslide is evident by now, right?

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:04 PM

i know, it just brought back the outrage from the lsm that gore lost tennessee

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

DRayRaven on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Yeah, no, since I can almost guarantee I’ve been reading HotAir for years before you have (since ’07). Oh, and then there’s this:

A year ago, while you were likely supporting clowns like Bachmann, Cain, or Santorum, I was supporting the only guy who could give Obama even a fighting chance — Mitt Romney.

Maybe had all of you got behind him earlier, he could have pulled out a squeaker.

But don’t call people trolls just because they don’t buy the delusional rah-rah kool-aid. Like anyone would have any motivation to “troll” right now as if it would anything whatsoever, let alone someone who supported Romney way before you did. But right, I forgot, talking about the possibility of losing/living in the real world and accepting the data as it exists — somehow magically lessens our chances of victory.

jjraines on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I was a long time resident of Maryland, this would be impossible. Way too many libs in Montgomery, PG and Anne Arundel.

Rambotito on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Not to mention Baltimore city…

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Love that! I am grilling a London Broil.

Cindy Munford on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Cindy Munford:

Evening Ladies,Cheese covered potatoes,sausages,and brown beans,
(Bush),imported from the US of A!:)

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Bill O’Reilly does nothing but promote Bill O’Reilly. He’s worthless.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Who the hell would waste their vote doing this?

From Florida’s results.

Barr / Sheehan PFP 4,028 0.09%

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

God, I can’t stand Bill O’Reilly.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 8:07 PM

mitt lost massachusetts, is that a bad sign since it is his ‘home state’?

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Not really.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

But wait, Del Dolemonte always comes and pitifully tries to insult Al Gore by pointing out how that guy didn’t win HIS home state. Surely that would mean Romney losing MA also makes HIM a miserable failure.

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:07 PM

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I see Romney’s running a little ahead of McCain’s share in the counties that are mostly in (Lake and Alachua) but he ain’t that far ahead of him.

alchemist19 on November 6, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Fox has Florida at
O-51
R-49

so far

workingclass artist on November 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Bill O’Reilly does nothing but promote Bill O’Reilly. He’s worthless.

Marcus on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

A self-aggrandizing imbecule. He should just shut the f…up.

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Listening to BOR on Fox, I’m ready to slit my wrists. And listening to a bullet-proof rich guy like BOR makes me sick.

BuckeyeSam on November 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

evening Canopfor..sounds delicious…hope you have your tea ready

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Ugh, Connie Mack.

joekenha on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Polls closed, I’m thinking Florida will probably be called before 11am if things don’t change soon. Didn’t think that this would be one of the safer states, wow.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Oh noooooooooo, Romney is losing Florida. OH THE HUMANITY!

davemason2k on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

O”Reilley is so full of crap. I do not for one minute believe that people changed their vote to Obama because of Hurricane Sandy…in fact the picture of people eating out of dumpsters just might hurt him.

Terrye on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

I’m staying sane by ignoring TV and Drudge … Jus HA for me. ;-)

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Damn. Obozo has all of New England, and Illinois, D.C. And MD,

Unfreakingbelievable.

I just can’t understand this. $6TRILLION in new debt, a health care “mandate”, Benghazi, fast & furious, and on and on…..and these freaking idiots still support the guy.

I’m going to throw up.

KMC1 on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

More: NBC News declares Romney the projected winner in Mississippi

43 secs ago by editor

CBS New projects Romney wins Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee

3 mins ago by editor

CNN projects Obama wins Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Rhode Island

5 mins ago by editor

http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/2012-elections

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:08 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Whether you like Bill O’Reily or not he just nailed it on FOX as to why this election is even close.

bgibbs1000 on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Oh boy, the libs are out tonight.

ORconservative on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

According to NBC, the I-4 numbers are just the early vote. Meaning that’s Obama’s margin over the last few weeks/days/whatever scheme Florida has.

The polls just closed in FL. They haven’t counted **** yet. Chill.

HitNRun on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

AP calling Bill Nelson the winner over Connie Mack.

Flora Duh on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

We should have 1 election thread. Switching back and forth is annoying and people aren’t moving to the newer threads because they obviously didn’t get the memo. /RANT

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Levin: ther are still folks IN LINE, in MA.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

canopfor on November 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Applebee’s steak (rare) and Scotch on the rocks..lordy, my liver…

lovingmyUSA on November 6, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Does anyone remember 2000 or 2004???? Stop with the Florida nonsense until 99% is counted.

Odie1941 on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

I’m trying to keep my spirits up. What in the world is happening? I thought Romney was solid in Florida.

Belle on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Maryland called for Romney. And in other news hell has frozen over.

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I was a long time resident of Maryland, this would be impossible. Way too many libs in Montgomery, PG and Anne Arundel.

Rambotito on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Maryland and has just been called for Obama, no idea where that poster came that with that result.

jimver on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Daikokuco on November 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

You’re a strange little guy.

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Sean Trende just pretty much called it for Obama.

p0s3r on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

HURRICANE SANDY WINS IT FOR BAMA

What a JOKE everyone, including FOX, in the media is.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Guys, chill. He’s reporting results as they come in and the map changes color depending on who is in the lead of the current vote totals they have. He’s not “changing the color” or “calling” anything, they’re just reporting results.

Doomberg on November 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Thanks.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

obama winning the early votes in OH so far per cnn

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 8:12 PM

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