8 pm: Florida, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire

posted at 7:31 pm on November 6, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Of the eighteen states with polling stations closing within the 8 — 8:59 PM Eastern window, the three we’re concerned about, of course, are Florida (29), Pennsylvania (20), and New Hampshire (4).

As Allahpundit summed up in his handy-dandy Electoral Math Made Easy primer yesterday, winning Florida is basically a prerequisite for the Romney campaign; its 29 electoral votes may be too many to do without. Fortunately, Romney’s maintained one of his better leaning-red battleground commands in Florida, along with North Carolina, and many polls have Romney winning with the senior demographic. As for Senate races, we’ve got Connie Mack (R) v. Bill Nelson (D), and the polls have all been steadily leaning in Nelson’s favor. Check their state returns here.

New Hampshire’s four electoral votes last went Republican for G.W. in 2000, but Obama’s only averaging a slim lead there — will the lack of anti-Bush sentiment of 2004 and the lack of Hopenchange of 2008 be enough to flip them back to red? No Senate races here, but they are running a governor’s race between Ovide Lamontagne (R) and Maggie Hassan (D), which is leaning Democratic.

Pennsylvania’s the biggest toss-up of this group — they’ve gone blue in the presidential vote for decades now, but they’re perfectly capable of voting red down the ticket, which they did in 2010. After various accusations of Romney’s “flailing” “desperation” from various members of Team O, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter acknowledged last night that the contest for Pennsylvania has definitely tightened, and Romney’s recent campaign push into the state has had them visibly nervous. As Allahpundit also already pointed out in his thread, word on the street is that the “bitter clingers” are showing up in relatively full force in the rural counties that Romney will likely need to overcome an urban deficit. Their Senate race, Tom Smith (R) v. Bob Casey (D) has been leaning Democratic, and here’s their state returns page, for you viewing pleasure.

I’ll keep you updated on these states here as the results roll in, and for some live updates and analysis, be sure to tune in and listen to Ed on the Hugh Hewitt show!

Update: The polls are officially closed, but as President Obama helpfully reminds us, if you’re in line when the polls close, you’re still good to vote — and it’s looking like certain Florida lines are still long. This could take awhile.

Update: Yup, via Politico:

Voting is continuing into the night Tuesday at a condo tower south of downtown here where “Hispanics for Obama” placards compete with an anti-communist poster taped to a palmetto bush — and where some residents say they’ve waited as long six hours to cast their ballots. …

“It’s not going well at all,” Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez said as he trudged through the parking lot while people in the parking lot yelled, “Shame on you” and “Venezuela runs better elections.”

Hundreds more were still waitng in a line snaking through the parking lot well past the official 7 p.m. EST closing time for the polls. (Polls close an hour later for Florida Panhandle counties that are on Central Time.)

Update: Chuck Todd just offered the rundown of the numbers coming in in Florida for NBC — Democrats are officially leading with the early vote tally, but not by nearly as much as Obama’s 2008 totals. Todd also noted that experts on both sides are predicting the state could come down to a difference of less than 100,000 votes, and thinks that, if it should come down to less than 50,000 votes, we could be looking at legal challenges. Oof.

Update: Bill Nelson, the Democrat, won his third term in Florida’s Senate seat over Connie Mack.

Update: They’ve just called Pennsylvania — it’s going blue.

Update: Fox News is calling New Hampshire for Obama, and the networks are saying that Florida is resting on a knife’s edge with 84% reporting.

Update: Aaaand, it looks like the fate of Florida’s votes won’t matter, as the networks are calling Ohio for Obama, meaning he’ll have passed the threshold of necessary electoral votes.


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Second wave, or second tsunami?

El_Terrible on November 6, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Wish Drudge laid off the stupid exit poll updates. Hope that didn’t scare potential Romney voters away.

MisterPundit on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Rushed home from work and I’m a nervous wreck.

Florida isn’t looking so hot… I thought Mitt had FL in the bag.
:(

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I haven’t yet opened the bottle of aged 6 month old Clontarf, but I’m thinking about it.

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Rushed home from work and I’m a nervous wreck.

Florida isn’t looking so hot… I thought Mitt had FL in the bag.
:(

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Less than a quarter of the vote has been counted.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

What the hell is happening in Florida?

ModerateMan on November 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

cripe

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

ENOUGH! LET’S COUNT!
R 51% O 48%

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

If Mitt takes PA it is game ov-ah!

MJBrutus on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Haven’t had a chance to look at anything yet. How goes it? Overall, I mean.

squint on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

PA is in play – Fox

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

These states might be too close to call tonight.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Juan just remarked that the exit questions showed

that those that voted for Preezy Zero voted

because, “he cares for people like me.”

LMAO. You fools! He doesn’t care about anybody

but himself.

Secondly, GIGO.

Ask a 47% and see what spews out.

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

What the hell is happening in Florida?

ModerateMan on November 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Don’t worry about it. The panhandle is the reddest part of the state and doesn’t close for 20 minutes.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:39 PM

How are you people freaking out about Florida when polls aren’t even closed in the pan handle yet? And I thought I was a nervous nelly!

Security Mom on November 6, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Fox just called SC for Mitt

gophergirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Don’t tell us, let us guess within, say, 15 minutes.

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

i’m bloody worried about florida

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I heard that too. Oy.

BuckeyeSam on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I’m so worried right now. I’m usually really worried until about 9pm. We’ll see. I just wish they’d hurry up. The suspense is killing me.

joekenha on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

It’s still the economy, stupid.

For the azzes on the HA threads.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

cnn is rumbling about fl absentee ballots…

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Everyone relax about Florida. We still have the panhandle.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

i’m bloody worried about florida

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Relax. Just like 2000, we can’t jump the gun.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I’m calling Illinois for Mitt Romney. You heard it here first.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Wish Drudge laid off the stupid exit poll updates. Hope that didn’t scare potential Romney voters away.

MisterPundit on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Me too. Let people vote and release exit polls whens polls close.

Tasha on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Don’t worry about it. The panhandle is the reddest part of the state and doesn’t close for 20 minutes.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Yep. Remember back to 2000, folks. Gore led for the first half of the night(in no small part because CNN called the state for him BEFORE the panhandle was done voting) and the Bush overtook him before it ended in nearly a tie.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

*deeps breaths*

going to have some chow…see you all in alittle bit

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Got lots o’Chardonnay and some reds if the need arises! I’m dug in and praying!!! Prayers for Romney. I really believe he is more than capable of not just winning but doing this job like a many possessed!!

He will not fail!! – Ann Romney

JAM on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

C’mon Mitt, win this thing.

Jason Taylor Sacked You on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

33 to 3 EVs, Mitties

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Yeah definitely feeling some anxiety. A couple glasses of scotch helps quite a bit. Take heart, we are looking good at this point. Should start to see more numbers roll in soon. We got this.
Flucking Wolverines!!!

Fett on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Rommey is outperforming McCain by 7 points in Miami Dade. Rommey wins Florida by 3. You heard it here first.

nicknack60 on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Thanks for that about Florida. Freaking me out too.

On the plus side, made me pour another glass of Jameson.

Phoenix7 on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

My Ulcer.

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Florida isn’t looking so hot… I thought Mitt had FL in the bag.
:(

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

.
Let not your heart be troubled Lass,
Romney has the I-4 corridor… panhandle is HEAVY Rep..and has not even closed yet.. FL will go Romney 52-47, 51-48 worst case.

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Is it me or are the folks on Fox News subdued all of the sudden?

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Have a drink on me. :-)

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Ace has NC RED!

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

ACE HAS VA RED!

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Florida isn’t looking so hot… I thought Mitt had FL in the bag.
:(

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Those are exit polls done by a liberal media consortium. If you are leaving a poll and you see someone with an NBC badge, do you answer their questions? No real numbers from FL until 8pm.

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I’m calling Illinois for Mitt Romney. You heard it here first.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

It would be awesome!

Amjean on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Is it me or are the folks on Fox News subdued all of the sudden?

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I don’t think they’re subdued. They’re just bored. This is the slow part of the night.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Rushed home from work and I’m a nervous wreck.

Florida isn’t looking so hot… I thought Mitt had FL in the bag.
:(

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Don’t worry yet. Wait till after 8:00 p.m.

Curtiss on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I’m calling Illinois for Mitt Romney. You heard it here first.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Haha. I live in the Chicago area. While it’s encouraging to see more GOP yard signs than in 2008 this place is as Blue as it gets. We’re bankrupt and a laughingstock for a reason. They even had a vote on the ballot against free speech (against Citizens United).

visions on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Romney is doing extremely well in Miami-Dade. Florida is looking good.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I can not deal with this pressure!
…don’t ever get caught in a foxhole with me. I’m sitting here biting my nails and shivering in fear.

BoxHead1 on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Ace has NC RED!

RedNewEnglander on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Ace’s decision desk don’t make a lick of sense.

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Going county by county, Florida is looking pretty damn similar to the 2008 map right now. We’ll see if that holds up.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Let not your heart be troubled Lass,
Romney has the I-4 corridor… panhandle is HEAVY Rep..and has not even closed yet.. FL will go Romney 52-47, 51-48 worst case.

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:43 PM

From your keyboard to God’s ear….

Grace_is_sufficient on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Ace’s decision desk don’t make a lick of sense.

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

He did pretty good during the Wisconsin recall election.

Corporal Tunnel on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I’m calling Illinois for Mitt Romney. You heard it here first.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Heh, along with NY and CA.

You have humor.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Theyre now holding back the reports from Miami. Obama is freaked. Dick Morris is right .. this is a landslide. Finger crossed.

nicknack60 on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Romney is doing extremely well in Miami-Dade. Florida is looking good.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Mittsunami!

slickwillie2001 on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Ignore the trolls. The rats are desperate.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I was going to watch “The Walking Dead” on DVR but I figured it would only remind me of liberal voters trudging to the voting booth, so maybe not.

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I’m calling Illinois for Mitt Romney. You heard it here first.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:41 PM

It would be awesome!

Amjean on November 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Illinois goes red and Wisconsin goes supernova red.

Phoenix7 on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I hope they call this for Romney pretty early or there will be a lot of drunk conservatives tonight! Who the heck will go to work tomorrow?

texgal on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania, Florida and Pennsylvania… please God, oh God, Oh God…

Otherwise… if my family loves me, they’ll kill me.

Alberta_Patriot on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

FL has two time zones. That’s why no results until 8 p.m.

In general terms:

Panhandle and north FL are red.

SW FL is red as is S central FL.

SE FL is blue, but this is a heavily populated area. Consider it south Jersey.

The I-4 corridor from Tampa to Daytona is a fight.

Remember this is in general terms.

INC on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

I think I picked the wrong day to quit smoking

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Allen up BIG on Kaine in Va.early- includes early voting……. Commies at MsnBS IGNORING IT !

That’s huge…

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Quit worrying about Florida. Me and Flora got it.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

We really need to aggregate all Progressive and other Leftist’s voter fraud attempts under one roof (post). There’s going to be a huge backlash from the Left accusing the country of voter fraud and suppression. We’re going to need info to counter, and it can’t be scattered all over the blogosphere.

AcronisF on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Just watch Obama’s concession speech and Michelle’s face.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I was going to watch “The Walking Dead” on DVR but I figured it would only remind me of liberal voters trudging to the voting booth, so maybe not.

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

For you–great movie quote: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a6YdNmK77k

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Heh, along with NY and CA.

You have humor.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I have inside sources and now I must eat before my head crashes into the keyboard.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Wish Drudge laid off the stupid exit poll updates. Hope that didn’t scare potential Romney voters away.

MisterPundit on November 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I doubt it. Republicans and conservatives have been looking at badly skewed polls for many months now.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

My faith that Mitt will win is not shaken in the least.

Let’s roll.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

I think I picked the wrong day to quit smoking

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Man up! It’s a good character test. Try to read every comment on HA instead.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Bad deal is looks like Grayson gets back in.

Bastard.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Allen up BIG on Kaine in Va.early- includes early voting……. Commies at MsnBS IGNORING IT !

That’s huge…

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Northern Virginia hasn’t reported yet.

Nobody should be calling Virginia right now.

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

O-3 still
R-33
Says Fox News

Kini on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Just watch Obama’s concession speech and Michelle’s face.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

That will be the first and only Obama speech I will ever watch

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

My faith that Mitt will win is not shaken in the least.

Let’s roll.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Pebble’s still yours!

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Don’t worry about Florida. Obama’s lead in some key counties like Hillsborough is based on early voting and absentee ballots.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

The TROLLCOTT is still on, isn’t it? Why oh why won’t they go play with their own kind?

texgal on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Jenna Lee vs. Rachel Madcow…….hmmmmm

Which channel should I click to………..

FlaMurph on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I’m getting scared that I’m going to run out of alcohol. Need to send husband for more.

Security Mom on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

That will be the first and only Obama speech I will ever watch

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Same here, with the exception of the 3 debates.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

quick aside…JEnna Lee looks HOT!

lostinjrz on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Ace switched NC to light blue and Ohio blue. Whatever.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Bmore, GA goes Romney!!!!!!!!!

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Man, I need a cigarette…

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Romney is doing extremely well in Miami-Dade. Florida is looking good.

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Thank you, Cuban-Americans. I lived down there for three years; they’re great people.

BuckeyeSam on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Twitter (FWIW) feed reporting “hours long lines” at polling places in FL, and you can vote as long as you were in line before it closed. This could go for a while.

peski on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Oops! Sorry, wrong thread.

conservative pilgrim on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Bmore, GA goes Romney!!!!!!!!!

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

NO!

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Bishop on November 6, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Just watch Obama’s concession speech and Michelle’s face.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Oh, that made me laugh, the “look on Michelle’s face” will be
priceless!!! I still laugh at the “look” and her demeanor at
the end of the first debate. OMG! That was fun!

Amjean on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Deep breaths, relax, and *clink* if ya got ‘em !!

Some folks are still in line, for heaven’s sake.
Let it all unfold in all it’s glory ! ;-)

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Fox’s map and results do not jive with Ace’s at all. I don’t understand how they could be so different.

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

PA is in play – Fox

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Just that fact says a lot about how this is going down, even if he loses it.

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

What a joke “Obama cares about people, like them”.

Talk about Goebbels orgasming in his grave! Obama doesn’t care about anyone but himself.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Man, I need a cigarette…

dukecitygirl on November 6, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Here. Take these. They’re menthols.

Lanceman on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

EVs = 49-R, 3-0

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Rommey outperfoming in Miami by 5 still a win but a tight one. Looks like 50% of vote is in.

nicknack60 on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

FL results are early voting ONLY and expected to favor O. No worries!!!

boaje on November 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

quick aside…JEnna Lee looks HOT!

lostinjrz on November 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Further aside: they need to promote Ainsley Earhardt. Yummy.

BuckeyeSam on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Fox exit poll – 56% trust Barry to handle an international crises? PLEASE!

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 7:54 PM

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