7 p.m.: Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina

posted at 6:16 pm on November 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

Free advice, take it or leave it: Don’t start obsessing about Ohio until we have a better sense of what’s happening in Virginia. Everyone’s going to go crazy when the OH early voting totals are revealed sometime after 7:30, as that’ll be the first strong sign of whether Romney’s overperforming or not. But there’s a reason I listed VA as a “prerequisite” in yesterday’s post on electoral math. Losing it won’t kill Romney but it’ll put him in the ICU; it would wipe out 13 of the 18 EVs he’s hoping to gain from Ohio. If he drops VA, then he’d have to win Ohio and Wisconsin and Iowa and another state or else somehow pull the rabbit out of the hat in Pennsylvania. Virginia is a big, big deal, and right now it’s a pure toss-up. Team Mitt likes what they’re seeing, though:

Southwestern Virginia and southwestern Pennsylvania are reportedly seeing big turnout for Romney. In both states, these are the rural conservative regions and Romney needs to run up his numbers in these areas.

Here’s the state’s page for election returns. Politico flags Henrico and Prince William Counties as ones to watch; both went for O last time. Given how tight the race is and the fact that Virgil Goode is a native son, the third-party vote here could potentially be a problem.

North Carolina is Romney’s safest swing state, so much so that I didn’t bother putting it up on the board in yesterday’s “electoral math made easy” post. RCP’s average has him ahead by three points exactly, so there’s your first benchmark in measuring whether GOP turnout nationally is higher than expected tonight. If this state is called early, that’s a good omen. If Obama somehow makes a contest of it, might be time to start drinking. You can follow the returns here.

Now for the big one. O led by 2.9 points in the final RCP average but anecdotal reports today are promising. First, a shot of optimism from Ari Fleischer:

Early voting is up in red counties and down in blue counties from 2008, which is what you’d expect and necessary for a Romney win. WaPo has a nice rundown of benchmarks for key counties: O’s aiming for close to 70 percent in Cuyahoga County, a la what he pulled in 2008, and he’s hoping to cut into Romney’s advantage in Delaware County the way he did to McCain, winning 36,000 votes there versus 27,000 for Kerry in 2004. Franklin County has gotten more Democratic over the last three elections, with Obama winning it in 60-39 four years ago, and both sides are hoping to win Hamilton County, which was reliably red until O won it in 2008. Here’s the Secretary of State’s page for returns. You can click the link there to view by county.

We’ve got a handy dandy Townhall election widget in the front page sidebar for you to follow results. Politico has a county-by-county map of the whole country to help simplify things too. And here’s the livestream for Ed and Guy Benson co-hosting the Hugh Hewitt show. One bit of recommended reading before we get into updates and results: This piece from National Journal explains in detail why Ohio’s rules for provisional ballots might, might lead to a weeks-long clusterfark a la Florida 2000. If you think Romney (or Obama) will win handily tonight then it’s no sweat, but do note that the candidates themselves are well prepared for this eventuality. Romney allegedly has a “go team” ready to roll.

Update: Mitt projecting confidence:

Speaking with reporters on his campaign plane for the last time, Mitt Romney revealed that he’s only written one speech so far.

“I just finished writing a victory speech,” he told the travelling press. “It’s about 1,118 words. And, uh, I’m sure it will change before I’m finished, because I haven’t passed it around to my family and friends and advisers to get their reaction, but I’ve only written one speech at this point.”

Update: The polls in Indiana closed at 6 p.m. ET. Victory is a foregone conclusion there for Romney but not for Richard Mourdock. As I’m writing this, the Indiana Secretary of State’s page is slow so I’m tracking returns on Politico’s page.

Update: Not unexpected, but not good either:

Update: It’s still early in Indiana but David Freddoso notices that Mourdock is underperforming McCain’s county numbers thus far — in a state that McCain lost narrowly. Ari Fleischer sees positive signs for O in Indiana too, but we’ll need Virginia numbers before we can try to deduce any national trends.

Update: Chris Cillizza of WaPo tweets that the bellwether counties in Virginia are Prince William and Loudoun. Both went to Obama in 2008 and then to Bob McDonnell in the gubernatorial race in 2009.

Update: A case study in why you shouldn’t trust early exit polls. According to CNN, the partisan split in Ohio tonight is D+7, which nearly equals the D+8 that Democrats produced in Obama’s wave year of 2008. No way is that correct.

Update: There’s good news in the dubious exit polls too.

Update: Another bellwether for you to watch in Virginia: Fairfax Villa in Fairfax County.

In 2004, John Kerry won Fairfax County, but lost Virginia 54-46. To be precise, Bush got 53.7% in Virginia. He got 52.5% in Fairfax Villa.

In 2008, Virginia voted 52.6% for Obama, and Fairfax Villa voted 53.0% for Obama.

A year later, in the governor election, the precinct and the state swung back to Republicans, big time. Virginia voted 58.6% for Bob McDonnell, and Fairfax Villa voted 60.1% for McDonnell.

Update: With nearly 15 percent reporting, Mourdock trails Joe Donnelly by two-tenths of a point.

Update: Over at the RCP live blog, Sean Trende is watching Virginia: “But with 77% in, Chesterfield [County] is 45% for Obama. That’s what he got last time. If that holds, it is very difficult for Romney to win.”

Update: Why Virginia is close:

Update: Consensus on Twitter right now among experts I follow, including Trende, is that Romney isn’t doing what he needs to do in the suburbs in Virginia to turn the state red. It’s still early and college towns appear to be underperforming for Obama, but the state looks to be close, which is in line with the RCP average showing Obama up by less than half a point. Voting in the state could be extended for hours tonight, so if you haven’t gone yet, now’s the time.

Update: Extremely early in Ohio but unless I’m misreading this, the Secretary of State has already posted the early voting totals. O leads right now by roughly 190,000 votes, which is just about what Jay Cost estimated this morning. Obama’s early vote lead from “strong” blue counties versus “strong” red counties four years ago was 323,000.

Update: Don’t give up on Virginia yet:

Update: Another hopeful sign from Conn Carroll: Romney’s up by 12 with 80 percent reporting in Chesapeake County, which Obama won narrowly four years ago.

Update: With 26 percent in, Romney’s lead in North Carolina is less than a point. But Jim Geraghty reports that the mood among GOP insiders about NC, FL, and especially VA has improved markedly in the past half hour or so.

Update: Meanwhile in Indiana, hopes of repealing ObamaCare are waning. Mourdock trails by more than three points with more than 45 percent reporting.

Update: Back in Virginia, Romney’s atoning for his underperformance in Chesterfield County with big numbers up north:

Ben Domenech also now thinks Romney will hang on in Virginia. Fingers crossed.

Update: Patrick Ruffini spies a 16-point swing against Obama in Arlington County and is now wondering if Virginia might even be called for the GOP before Florida.

Update: Erika and MKH have you covered in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but I’m hearing that news outlets just called the Senate race in PA for Bob Casey and the presidential race in MI for Obama at the top of the hour. That takes one potential Romney longshot state off the table and makes Pennsylvania seem unlikely. But then, Ohio and Wisconsin have always been our best bets.

Update: Tim Carney, who noted Fairfax Villa as a key bellwether in one of the updates above, is in Fairfax County tonight and doesn’t like what he sees. Interesting difference of opinion right now between him and Trende on the one hand and Rove and Ruffini on the other about Romney using northern Virginia to pull this out.

Update: With 62.5 percent reporting and more than six and a half million votes counted, Romney leads in Florida — by 12,000 votes. Bush/Gore deja vu!

Update: Oof — multiple news outlets now calling Pennsylvania for Obama. That leaves Minnesota as the only longshot on the table for Romney. If, as expected, that goes blue too, then he needs to win either Ohio or Wisconsin. And if Virginia slips through his fingers, he’ll need to win both.

Update: Some quick and dirty electoral math for you now that Michigan and Pennsylvania are off the table. If Obama holds on in Minnesota and Nevada, which he’s expected to do, then he’s at 243 electoral votes. Florida has 29, so if he pulls the upset there, then he doesn’t need any other state. He’d be at 272 and that would be it. Romney desperately needs to hold that slim lead in FL. If instead O pulls an upset in Virginia, that would put him at 256. He could get to 270 then with Ohio or with Wisconsin plus any other state or with Colorado plus Iowa.

Update: Oh boy. Fox News just called Wisconsin for Obama. All down to Ohio now for Romney. He needs to win OH + FL + VA + one other state.

Update: CBS just called New Hampshire for Obama, which simplifies things. If Romney doesn’t hold on in Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina and win Ohio and Iowa or Colorado, he’s done.

Oh: And Fox News just called the Indiana Senate for Joe Donnelly.

Update: With nearly 80 percent in, Obama’s actually ahead in Florida by 14,000 votes. And the word on Twitter is that he’s doing well in the bellwether counties.

Update: ABC just called Minnesota for Obama so all the longshots are now off the table. I assume Nevada will be called within the next 20 minutes or so (it’s 9:55 p.m. ET right now), which means Romney’s remaining path will be basically set. FL + VA + NC + OH + either CO or IA. Or bust.

Update: The good news is, with almost 77 percent in, Romney holds a lead in Virginia of nearly 90,000 votes. The bad news is in Florida, where, with 87 percent in, Obama’s clinging to a 37,000-vote lead. At the RCP blog, Tom Bevan says the remaining precincts there should favor … Obama.

Update: As noted above, Obama leads in Florida by 37,000 votes. Right now, Gary Johnson has … 39,000 votes.

Update: Elsewhere, in the suddenly forgotten state of Ohio, Obama holds a 90,000-vote lead with roughly half the state reporting.

Update: As of 10:30 ET, Romney’s ahead in the national popular vote by 1.3 million votes. Only eight percent of New York has reported, though, and none of the west coast has come in yet, so expect that to disappear quickly. Realistically, if Obama’s on his way to 300 or so electoral votes, he’s not going to lose the popular vote.

Update: O’s up by only 16,000 votes in Florida with nine percent of the state still be counted, but a big chunk of that is in Miami-Dade County, where 30 percent of the vote is still outstanding. That’s Obama’s stronghold; assuming that remaining 30 percent trends blue, he’s going to pad his lead, not lose it.

Update: At 10:54 ET, Romney finally wins the swing state that everyone thought would be easy pickings. The AP just called North Carolina for him. With nearly 98 percent reporting, he leads by two points. Meanwhie, with two-thirds of the vote in, Obama continues to lead in Ohio by 80,000 votes.

Update: Just as I’m reporting the first big Romney victory of the night, the Denver Post is calling Colorado for Obama. That makes the math easy: Romney now needs Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Iowa. A loss in any of those states ends it.

Update: I’m hearing that George Allen has conceded to Tim Kaine in the Virginia Senate race, which bodes ill for Romney’s chances. He leads by 13,000 votes but there are blue counties still to come in. Larry Sabato called the state a likely win for O just 10 minutes ago.

Looks like the writing’s on the wall. The networks are holding off on calling these states, I think, simply because it amounts to calling the entire election.

Update: NBC just called Iowa for Obama. Assuming all the calls made by the networks are correct tonight (some Republicans are holding out hope for Wisconsin, although it’s been called by both Fox and ABC), then the election’s all but over. We’re just waiting on Nevada now, O’s strongest swing state, to clinch 271.

Update: At 11:13 ET, NBC calls Ohio for Obama. Fox follows a minute later. Ballgame.

Update: Assuming O holds on in Florida and ekes it out in Virginia, he’ll have swept all the swing states except NC and will finish with 332 electoral votes, not far off the pace from the 365 he won four years ago. Nearly four years of a miserable economy plus hundreds of millions of dollars in conservative campaign spending was worth 32 electoral votes. Indiana and North Carolina, essentially.

Update: I guess it’s time.

Update: This result is so bad that I think we need to double dip on misery videos. Did the Democrats actually pick up Senate seats this year?

Update: At 12:40 a.m., both the AP and CBS are calling Virginia for Obama. He’s over 300 EVs now, I believe. Still waiting on Florida, where he leads by 50,000 votes with 97.5 percent reporting. He’s ahead in the popular vote now too, with most of California and 20 percent of New York still to report.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5 27

katee bayer on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

You are a patriot!

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Consider that there’s always a Dem bias in exit polls. This will affect the right track/wrong track numbers, etc. If CNN is reporting exits are D+3 – THAT’S GOOD FOR US!

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

cnn….at romney HQ final internal poll shows mitt is trailing OH

CRIPE

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Heh – Drudge had some cold water.

EXCITEMENT BUILDS…
EXIT POLLS: Economy still No. 1 issue…
Obama has 190 electoral votes and Romney has 191 locked…
FLASHBACK: Report Acknowledges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Polls…

EXIT POLLS TIGHT
R: NC, FL
O: NH, PA, MI, NV
TOSS UP: OH, VA, CO, IA

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Those were the headlines that harshed my mellow officer. Yes, I want to press charges.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Anyone who gets wobbly will be summarily thrown out of my kayak which can hold as many as one passenger, including myself.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Just don’t lose the pebble, you funny guy.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Scrumpy on November 6, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Hi Scrumpy.

Oh and by the way don’t watch, you don’t want that sh!t on your clothes.
Fred

jrsrigmvr on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Speaking with reporters on his campaign plane for the last time, Mitt Romney revealed that he’s only written one speech so far.

“I just finished writing a victory speech,” he told the travelling press. “It’s about 1,118 words. And, uh, I’m sure it will change before I’m finished, because I haven’t passed it around to my family and friends and advisers to get their reaction, but I’ve only written one speech at this point.”

Now THAT is a confident, PRESIDENTIAL man!

kcd on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

So when Florida comes in for Romney, that means you’ll shut the hell up for the rest of the night, right?

beatcanvas on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Nah. He’s a sour grapes holdover from the primaries and grade A Eeyore (to use the local parlance). Let’s observe our trollcott. It does wonders for H/A.

MJBrutus on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Underground idea: Evangelicals will not vote for a Mormon candidate for President.

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

This one did. So did her spouse. And hundreds of voters who go to the same Southern Baptist church.

Oh, and we’re in a swing state.

CJ on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Those were the headlines that harshed my mellow officer. Yes, I want to press charges.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Man up – you’ve seen way worse. It’s gon’ be a glorious night, even if she’s a long one.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

cnn sounds giddy that mitt’s internal shows him trailing in OH

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

trollcott

This means boycott the trolls. Leave them alone. Let them say their trolly stuff. Ignore the trolls

Trollcott

happytobehere on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Kook alert!..Kook alert..:)

Dire Straits on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Before it gets completely crazy around here on Hot Gas, THANKS in advance to Allahpundit, Ed, Erika, and of course, The Hammer!!!

Let’s roll.

hillbillyjim on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Obviously, I’m not Bmore, but mine is that, while the US has a lot of dummies, I believe she hasn’t reached the leftist Utopian ideal yet.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I hope you are right, Comrade.

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I hate exit polls..It makes folks lose their mind..:)

Yeah, it really does.

Remember in 2004 where they showed Kerry winning rather handily?

SteveMG on November 6, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Thank you for saying that. Drudge had me stomping around the kitchen and I’ve vowed not to go THERE again.

BettyRuth on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Teh stupid is strong with this one…

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Nah. Looks like one of Bishops fishing buddies.

Count to 10 on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

FINISH HIM

Panther on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I’m with Bishop. Completely calm. The die is cast, the coin is tossed, the wheels are in motion and all that nonsense … that, and I’m well stocked with ammo.

Lost in Jersey on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Please do not feed the trolls.

novaculus on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

cnn….at romney HQ final internal poll shows mitt is trailing OH

CRIPE

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Boycott CNN

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Friend’s post on Facebook (Manhattan resident):

So I went to vote and the woman told me she doesn’t have enough ballots for out of district voters and that I couldn’t vote. After suggesting that it sounded illegal and asking of she was a communist she “found” an extra ballot. What a joke. The fix is already in.

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

God please calm me! I am literally shaking like a leaf. I go from being wildly confident to terrified in a matter of seconds.

Nikkia2112 on November 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Ignore the exit polls completely and skip over the moronic trolls on the threads – don’t waste a second reading them.

Maybe breathe into a paper bag…. they say that helps.

tru2tx on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Ignore him KG, he’ll ruin your evening.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 6:43 PM

there will be other things way more important than me ruining everybody’s evening.

nathor on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I think I might have picked the wrong day to quit drinking

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I want a Romney win….. because I want to see an MSNBC meltdown!!!

Midwestprincesse on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Speaking with reporters on his campaign plane for the last time, Mitt Romney revealed that he’s only written one speech so far.

In fairness, what the hell could he possibly say if he has to deliver a concession speech? At best Obama will barely eek out a reelection victory and will have very little of a mandate going into a 2nd term.

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 6:48 PM

AP in the Green Room:

Drudge is the colossus that bestrides the news world

Just don’t look up, it ain’t pretty.

peski on November 6, 2012 at 6:48 PM

This one did. So did her spouse. And hundreds of voters who go to the same Southern Baptist church.

Oh, and we’re in a swing state.

CJ on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

hehehehehehe

kcd on November 6, 2012 at 6:48 PM

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

they actually talked to a mitt guy

*biting nails*

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:48 PM

confident. not gonna let all you Eeyore’s drag me down.

:)

Coolidge_Conservative on November 6, 2012 at 6:48 PM

cnn sounds giddy that mitt’s internal shows him trailing in OH

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

How can they see Romney’s internals from Obama’s butt?

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

The Redskins lost on Sunday. Romney will win the election.

After Obama wins, watch the media spin that the Redskins actually won the game and that the sports reporters were wrong.

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

CNN Exit has turnout estimated at D+3.

HMMM, I that’s the exact number I predicted.

TOLD YA SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

So, was wearing (and still am) a t-shirt with a print of a donkey with its head up its rear to the voting station today. Lady told me to turn it inside-out as any sign of reverse-assfection is considered electioneering! FBO!!! We’re doing this people, and we will defeat them.

ahlaphus on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Update: The polls in Indiana closed at 6 p.m. ET. Victory is a foregone conclusion there for Romney but not for Richard Mourdock. As I’m writing this, the Indiana Secretary of State’s page is slow so I’m tracking returns on Politico’s page.

Indiana polls are still open in some parts of the state. A small part of Indiana uses CST.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Axe on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

:)

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

cnn….at romney HQ final internal poll shows mitt is trailing OH

CRIPE

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

The only possible reason Team Romney would report that they’re trailing, is to motivate people to stay in line.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

TROLLCOTT!

wargamer6 on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

CNN said Romney internal had him down 5 in OH yesterday.

YYZ on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

FUCK I AM SO NERVOUS

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Johnny Walker Blue, check.
Pre-embargo Cuban cigar, check.
DVR set to record MSNBC meltdown, check.
GO ROMNEY!

ChicagoBlues on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

jrsrigmvr on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM

FRED! I was just asking after you on the QOTD the other night. I’m glad to see you. I hope you and the family are well. :)

thatsafactjack on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

My NC going Romney and we’re getting a shiny, new Republican Governor tonight. Trying to make amends for our miserable failure in ’08.

UpTheCreek on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Nobody said watching the results trickle in would be easy. The start is always rough for Conservatives/Republicans.

JonPrichard on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Underground idea: Evangelicals will not vote for a Mormon candidate for President.

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

This Evangelical was voting for POTUS, not Pastor. Hence, my vote for Romney.

tgharris on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

TrollCott!

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

I want Romney to win…. because it’s my Dad’s Birthday today!!!

Midwestprincesse on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Slow down y’all. Your fingers will fall off before a single state is called. Besides, I cannot keep up and load fresh mags at the same time with y’all goin’ so fast.

cozmo on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

ya think?
hmmmm

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I’m so so so so snervous

blatantblue on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Scrumpy!

KCB on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I need to medicate carefully.

ChicagoBlues on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

10 MINUTES until Florida and Virginia polls close.

Longing4Lincoln on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I’m going into a warm bath until about 9pm. With a cooler of beer. Nerves!

Who is John Galt on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

HMMM, I that’s the exact number I predicted.

TOLD YA SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Exit poll of D+3 means a reality of R+2. Perhaps as your world comes crashing down tonight you can drag your black hearted self outside and kick some babies to cheer yourself up.

NotCoach on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

HMMM, I that’s the exact number I predicted.

TOLD YA SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

And exit polls are still bullsh*t peppered with guesswork.

BUT YOU KNEW THAT!

KingGold on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Got a bottle of likely mid-seventies Taylor brand brut champagne chilling in the fridge. Heading down to the bar later to spray the O-Bots. It’s gonna stink o’ so sweet.

ahlaphus on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Early KY vote–Romney has 60%. A good if unimportant omen.http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/KY/43107/106765/en/summary.html

levi from queens on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

How could CNN run with that? It’s completely implausible that Obama would win Ohio by more than 08. And there certainly isn’t anyone high in the Romney campaign who would leak that before the polls close even if it was true. Unreal.

RepublicanInMA on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

katee bayer on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM
You are a patriot!

portlandon on November 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

thanks hun!

katee bayer on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

UpTheCreek on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Yeppers! MrRory for Perdue. NC is about to trade up :-)

MJBrutus on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Any of you clowns get wobbly bout now I will promptly kick you off my unicycle which holds exactly one person including myself.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

HMMM, I that’s the exact number I predicted.

TOLD YA SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

A CNN exit poll? You’re really hanging your hat on that?

Doughboy on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Who is Jenna Lee and why have I never seen her before? Yowza.

Phoenix7 on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I want Romney to win…. because it’s my Dad’s Birthday today!!!

Midwestprincesse on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Happy Birthday to the Midwestking!

GOPRanknFile on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Don’t forget… TROLLCOTT. Especially for the clay character.

Longing4Lincoln on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

JetBoy on November 6, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Oh, dear Lord … Have been battling that concept on FB all day …. OY.

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

hi Jackie! Hope I run into you tonight!

KCB on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Whats your secret?

steel guy on November 6, 2012 at 6:36 PM

I worked very hard this season, convincing many of the need for stain removal. I have delivered the votes to the polls I had expected, save 8 of them. 80% is a number representing success that I am comfortable with. It was my best attempt. I am calm. P.S. I am safely away from the urban area, have my lovely bride at my side and a wonderful first indoor fire of the season burning. The bottles are chilling, supper is being prepared. ; )

Bmore on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

I need to medicate carefully.

ChicagoBlues on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Go right up to LD50. But not a hair past.

tom daschle concerned on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Way, way early, but its not looking good for Mourdock in Indiana. 3% in and he’s underperforming Romney by 18 points.

LukeinNE on November 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

…might be time to start drinking…

Too late. I mean…

OkieDoc on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

HMMM, I that’s the exact number I predicted.

TOLD YA SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Hey, limpy, it’s CNN.

Stay classy, and please, please, definitely stick around so we’ll have someone to heap our scorn upon while you’re drying your eyes and changing your diaper.

hillbillyjim on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

CNN Exit has turnout estimated at D+3.

Historically exit polls favor Dems by 5-7 points. If they say D+3 right now, the turnout should really be about R+2.

TarheelBen on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Mourdock up 49-45 with 3% reporting.

peski on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

KCB on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, KEN! Just checking in! Hope you’re having a wonderful day! :)

thatsafactjack on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

I am NOT nervous. Mitt will win. It is really obvious.

Its a turn out election and we are turning out and they are not turning out.

We win.

SparkPlug on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Doughboy, don’t you get it. Ignore the trolls. Otherwise be depressed by the rats.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Hi Bmore!

KCB on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

another 4 years of this schmuck

..are these people insane?????

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Seven minutes.

HornetSting on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

There are still plenty of awesome people left in the country. That alone will not make a great nation. Especially if they are out numbered by takers and have Socialists running the country into the ground that are going to radicalize the Supreme Court and open the borders to 30-50 million people from South of the the Rio Grande.
Rockshine on November 6, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Exactly. He gets re-elected and we don’t control the Senate, we’re done. We’re halfway there already. These last 4 years will look like the Reagan era compared to what he has on his agenda this time. The moochers and special agenda minorities will outnumber the good decent people of this country. He’ll unilaterally grant amnesty and bam, no R in the WH ever, again.

TxAnn56 on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

TrollCott!

JPeterman on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Hello to you, too!

Great nignt, isn’t it?

I’m 200.00 richer and get to accept my accolades from you dunces.

gumbyandpokey on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

KCB, Happy Birthday again. What a day!

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

For evangelicals, it’s either go to hell by voting for Romney or entering Paradise by voting for Obama or staying home.

The possibility of an earthly hell doesn’t enter the picture.

technopeasant on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Yeppers! MrRory for Perdue. NC is about to trade up :-)

MJBrutus on November 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Yep, Perdue is the only politician that I actually know. Much scarier if you knew her! Definitely a trade up!

UpTheCreek on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Quit that crap.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I’m calm, per se.
KNOW our voters are making a diff … Just excited to watch it happening.
Does that make sense ??

pambi on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Please do not feed the trolls.

novaculus on November 6, 2012 at 6:38 PM

I have no interest in trolls this evening. I am happy to be here amongst my friends. ; )

Bmore on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

After the CNN report on the internals, Romney’s In-Trade odds have collpased into oblivion. He’ll probably be running below 20% within the hour. Holy hell, this thing could be even more of a blow-out than I predicted.

Typhonsentra on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

GOOD EVENING, SCRUMPY!

thatsafactjack on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 6:45 PM
Man up – you’ve seen way worse. It’s gon’ be a glorious night, even if she’s a long one.

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I just hate exit polls.

hawkdriver on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Seven minutes.

HornetSting on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

five…

OmahaConservative on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Just a reminder lest people forget: there is a viable path to 270 without OH. On top of the “prereqs” (as Allah put it–NC, IN, FL, and VA) all that is needed is CO, WI, and either IA or NH.

I almost have more faith in that path than OH…

johnny alpha on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Watching the 1% ticker returns coming in on the bottom of the screen on fox

Getting me antsy

Still believe romney wins big

audiotom on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Johnny Walker Blue, check.
Pre-embargo Cuban cigar, check.
DVR set to record MSNBC meltdown, check.
GO ROMNEY!

ChicagoBlues on November 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

well played, sir. well played!

Coolidge_Conservative on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Schadenfreude on November 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

sorry, just freakin’ out a bit….

cmsinaz on November 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

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