Who’s winning the early vote?

posted at 3:21 pm on November 5, 2012 by Mary Katharine Ham

In 2008, Barack Obama won the early vote and won it big—by 11 points in battleground states. Banking all those votes before Election Day made John McCain’s already tough road tougher. McCain voters even outperformed Obama voters at the polls on Election Day voting in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina, but not enough to make up the margins his opponent had accumulated.

If you believe Team Obama, the same thing’s going to happen in 2012:

By its own determination, Obama’s team believes it will have banked so much early vote in key states as to make Romney’s Election Day vote deficit virtually impossible to make up. Messina contends Romney will need to win by the following percentages on Election Day to overcome Obama’s projected early vote lead: 65 percent in North Carolina; 59 percent in Iowa and Colorado; 58 percent in Nevada; 55 percent in Florida and Ohio and 52 percent in Wisconsin and Virginia.

Despite these fulsome statistics, Messina wouldn’t predict victories yet in any of these states. But he said Obama’s efforts to register 1.8 million new voters (28 percent of whom have voted early – 345,000 in the top six battleground states) and 125 million calls or face-to-to-face interactions with voters will turn the tide for Obama. “Some campaigns believe in quantity over quality when it comes to voter contact,” Messina said. “We do not. This is a people-centered, data-driven effort.”

The question isn’t really who’s winning the early vote, but whether President Obama is winning it by enough to swamp Romney’s early vote operation, which is better than McCain’s, his Election Day turnout, and increased Republican enthusiasm over 2008. Not only was ’08 a particularly good year for Democrats, it was a particularly bad year for Republicans.

The bulk of information on early-vote returns shows Obama winning, but Republicans posting significant gains over their ’08 performance. I tried to keep the information below as current as possible, but some of it comes from Friday, and polls remain open for early voting in Iowa, Ohio, and some Florida counties. Just keep that in mind.

COLORADO: The only early-voting battleground state where early voting has swung from favoring Democrats in ’08 to Republicans in ’12. Republicans now lead Democrats 37-35 percent in a state where more than 1.5 million have voted early, according to the Associated Press. Early voting is expected to make up the bulk of Colorado’s ballots (80 percent in ’08!), so it’s a very good sign Republicans are leading. Obama won early voting by 9 points in ’08.

The Denver Post offers the raw vote totals: “The party breakdown by those who have already voted is: Republicans, 624,788; Democrats, 590,417; and unaffiliated voters, 474,437.”

Obama won Colorado in 2008 by 8.6 percentage points, or 196,658 votes.

The Romney campaign obviously feels very good about Colorado. As Molly Ball writes in The Atlantic:

It should shock no one that signs point to a significant dropoff from 2008 for Obama; if Election Day trends hold, he seems likely to lose a handful of states he won four years ago. In particular, the early vote looks promising for Republicans in North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.

FLORIDA: In the Sunshine State, Republicans have closed a 7-point gap in early voting to a gap of 3.1 percent, according to ABC reporting.

Molly Ball again:

Their current lead of nearly 60,000 votes is far short of the 280,000-vote lead (and 46-37 margin) they carried into Election Day in 2008. (The dropoff could be a result of the shortening of in-person early voting.) Republicans’ share of the early vote, 41 percent, is 5 points higher than their share of voter registration, 36 percent, while Democrats’ 43 percent of early voters is just 2 points above their 41 percent voter registration share. In a state Obama won by less than 3 points in 2008, where the majority of votes are early and Republicans tend to win Election Day, any falloff should be concerning for Democrats.

And, this ominous note for Team Obama from the AP:

The Obama campaign acknowledges it must do better among Florida’s Election Day voters than Obama did on 2008, when McCain won the Election Day vote by 5 percentage points.

In bellwether Hillsborough County, which has chosen the presidential winner with only one miss since 1976, Republicans maintained McCain levels of early vote, at 111,610 Republican early and absentee votes compared with 110,295 in ’08. Democrats on the other hand lost a net 13,961 votes off their ’08 total of 153,615 early and absentee votes. That’s a swing of about 15,000 votes in Republicans’ favor, which amounts to 41 percent of Obama’s margin of victory in the county in ’08.

IOWA: Democrats maintain a significant lead in early voting in the Hawkeye State, but it’s a 10-percent lead as compared to a 27-point lead for Obama in ’08. The total number of early votes is up over ’08 suggesting Republicans are far outperforming the McCain effort.

Four years ago, Obama won the early vote in Iowa by a whopping 27 percentage points, 63 percent to 36 percent. McCain, meanwhile, won the Election Day vote by about 1,800 votes — less than a percentage point. Together, they added up to a 10-point victory for Obama.

But USA Today notes a potential problem for Obama: “40,000 (Democrats) had not returned their mail ballots, compared with 21,000 Republicans.”

Jamie Dupree of Cox Media has more details on Iowa absentee returns and enthusiasm, where Republicans are outdoing Democrats on the return rate:

IOWA ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS: Dems 42.2%, GOP 32.1%, Indies 25.6%; 2008 was 46.9% D, 28.9% R & 24.2% indy/other

IOWA ABSENTEES ENTHUSIASM: Dems have sent in 88.4% of their ballots, Republicans 92% and indies/other 85.2%

And, Molly Ball’s bottom line: “Republicans note that Democrats surged to a 44-point lead in Iowa early votes in late September and have since seen it steadily whittled away. More Iowans of all parties are voting early than ever: Nearly 80,000 more votes have already been cast than 2008′s total Iowa early votes.”

Still, a decent margin for Obama.

NEVADA: Democrats lead 44-38. Obama won early voters, which made up more than 2/3 of Nevada’s vote, 59-39 in 2008 and won the state by 12.

Bottom line, from both camps: “The Romney campaign argues that Obama isn’t doing nearly as well among early voters in Nevada as he did in 2008. The Obama campaign argues that it doesn’t have to.”

USA Today:

In order for Romney to win Nevada, he would need to cut into the Democrats’ margins in Clark County, at least tie Washoe County and drive up turnout in rural Nevada, the Republican National Committee notes in a memo. There are signs that all three could happen, but it remains to be seen whether it will be enough.

NORTH CAROLINA: Democrats lead early voting 48-32 percent in 2012, down from a 51-30 lead in 2008. That sounds like a good margin, but keep in mind that McCain’s numbers were so good on Election Day that Obama still only won by fewer than 14,000 votes. In other words, a 21-point lead in early voting led to a .4-percent win for Obama during a historically bad year for Republicans.

OHIO: The Buckeye State is harder to gauge, as voters don’t register by party affiliation. The state does, however, identify which party’s primary they most recently participated in, so you get a decent idea of where a portion of the electorate is aligned. According to those numbers, Republicans have closed a 14-point gap in 2008 to a 6-point gap, 29-23. The stats are better for Republicans than in ’08, but a note of caution: Because the most recent contested primary was a Republican presidential primary, it makes sense you would see more Republican “registrations.” There are plenty of voters who don’t show up as Republican or Democrat, and I’m sure both camps would tell you they’re made up of sporadic or first-time voters their respective sides have succeeded in getting to the polls. No way to tell.

From the Christian Science Monitor:

Compared with this point in time four years ago, fewer Buckeye State Democrats and more Republicans have cast their ballots. The net gain for the GOP is about 200,000 votes, said Sen. Rob Portman (R) of Ohio Monday during an appearance on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

“As compared to 2008, we’re doing better…. I do think the momentum is on our side,” said Senator Portman.

The spin, from both camps:

Messina said the Obama campaign has done a better job getting out sporadic voters, particularly those who did not vote in the midterm elections in 2010. More than 179,000 non-midterm voters from counties Obama won in 2008 have cast ballots, compared with 91,000 from Republican-leaning counties.

Republicans counter that absentee and early voting is 12% higher in counties McCain won than the counties Obama won.

And, Jim Geraghty offers this tidbit on Democrat-heavy Cuyahoga County:

Cuyahoga County saw 2,536 voters Sunday, but that is down almost a thousand from the same day four years ago. In total votes, Cuyahoga County is now 14.7 percent behind where they were four years ago.

Through Sunday, 42,511 Cuyahoga County voters cast ballots early; four years ago, that number was 49,849. In 2008, 4,481 Cuyahoga County voters cast ballots on the Monday before the election.

Michael Barone also pointed to lackluster stats in Cuyahoga as a reason for his prediction for Romney:

Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small-town, and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory.

VIRGINIA: Virginia doesn’t require registration by party, and early voting requires a valid excuse, so a far smaller percentage of the vote comes early/absentee than in other early-vote states—about 14 percent. Total early voting is down compared to 2008, according to the latest numbers from the Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman:

The only way to tell who might be gaining or losing is to tally early vote totals compared to ’08 in McCain counties vs. Obama counties. Last week, this metric showed Obama losing ground while Republicans stayed at ’08 levels. Wasserman is now tallying the final early vote count by locality, so I’ll have an update on that.

WISCONSIN: There is also no party registration in Wisconsin, but in a state constantly in election mode for the past three years, there are plenty of indicators. Ben Domenech, writing in The Transom, looks at one:

…shocking early vote numbers from the state, which really do indicate an Obama machine which has failed to deliver an advantage for the president in a state that’s gone blue in six consecutive presidential elections.

Here’s a few of those early vote numbers which stand out: One of the first signs of trouble for the Democrats during the Walker recall was when Dane County, which has about a 110k population advantage on Waukesha county and includes blue-dominated Madison and the University of Wisconsin campus, had only about a 2k advantage in early voting and absentees. Democrats later claimed the surprisingly close number was due to a lack of college kids in Madison.

As of the latest update from Wisconsin early voting, the gap between Dane and Waukesha is once again 2k. But that’s with a massive increase in the overall vote, meaning the gap is even less statistically significant than before. So here’s the big question for Wisconsin Democrats: where are your college kids? What happened to them? Why do you have to send Katy Perry to Milwaukee this weekend and Bruce Springsteen to Madison on Monday in the hopes of getting them out?

A Springsteen event in Madison drew 80,000 in ’04 for Kerry. It drew 18,000 for Obama today.

Pennsylvania and New Hampshire do a little early voting, but they don’t offer early-voting data.

Update: The final update from The Washington Post on early voting:

In basically every state where we have good data available, Democrats performed worse than they did in 2008 but better than they did in 2010. And if you extrapolate the shift to the entire statewide vote, we’ve got a very close race in store…

In basically every state, Democrats’ early vote edge is between four and eight points less than it was in 2008. Given that Obama won the popular vote in 2008 by about seven points, that would suggest a margin-of-error race.

So, early voting— a historically heavily Democratic metric— ended up with a turnout somewhere between ’08 and ’10 models. Yet many of the nationwide and battleground polls have Obama winning thanks to a turnout that looks very similar to ’08 or even better for Democrats.


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Lizard Man, please let it be Lizard Man.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 3:23 PM

Who’s winning the early vote?

Don’t be silly MKH… Only the Fifth Column Treasonous Media can tell us when Obama won this election

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Novelty, is a one time thing.

Like first impressions.

FlaMurph on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

So early voting by Democrats is DOWN in EVERY. SINGLE. STATE.

But of course, the electorate will look exactly like 2008 at anything from D+4 to D+11 according to state and national polls (Was D+7 in 2008). And even then, it is a tie with Obama unable to break 50%.

Good luck with that, Dems…LOL

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

According to AP, early voting is down here in Texas, compared to 2008. So far, 39.3 percent of voters, compared to 42 percent in 2008.

Ward Cleaver on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Romney / Santorum 2012

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

nice wrap up mkh

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Beg to differ with you, MKH. The key no one wants to talk about, is the angry 2008 Obama voter, who has switched his/her vote to Romney this election. How many of these early voters are switch votes? I’m betting the media will get a huge shock when Romney has a much larger lead or Obama has a much smaller lead, than expected by party affiliation, due to the angry switch voters! We”l see in a few days, if that’s the case.
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 5, 2012 at 3:29 PM

As of the latest update from Wisconsin early voting, the gap between Dane and Waukesha is once again 2k. But that’s with a massive increase in the overall vote, meaning the gap is even less statistically significant than before.

This is why I think we don’t need OH. We’re going to take WI.

Doomberg on November 5, 2012 at 3:29 PM

I don’t understand why the Obama camp is continuing to tout these new registrations they claim when Dem registration has FALLEN in many of these swing states, especially FL. And in OH, there are fewer registered voters in Dem strongholds than there were in ’08. Either I’m missing something, or he’s whistling past the graveyard.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Messina is a liar.

COgirl on November 5, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Oh! Messina said it so it MUST be true! Yeah, right!

NavyMustang on November 5, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Just heard a quick report on the radio that 39% of Tx voters, voted early.

pambi on November 5, 2012 at 3:34 PM

The only American in the race is winning…

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Huckabee/Palin 2016

because they both have fitness books on how to not be fat

hanzblinx on November 5, 2012 at 3:35 PM

hanzblinx on November 5, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Apparently, Huckabee ate the unabridged version of his own.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

The question isn’t really who’s winning the early vote, but whether President Obama is winning it by enough to swamp Romney’s early vote operation, which is better than McCain’s, his Election Day turnout, and increased Republican enthusiasm over 2008

At this point, it’s all about which campaign has the better ground game in each of the battleground states. No idea if either campaign has a real advantage over the other.

when Dem registration has FALLEN in many of these swing states, especially FL

FL has some of the most inane rules that turn voter registration drives a brush with breaking a state law. Not conducive to most standards of a democracy.

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I’m noticing a near-complete dearth of trolls.

The non-engagement movement having an effect?

novaculus on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Ward Cleaver on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

LOL … Missed ya, there.

pambi on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

or he’s whistling past the graveyard.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

You nailed it.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

REMEMBER:

Please do not feed the trolls!

novaculus on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Wilder does not expressly back Romney, but he says the Republican has met the test to be president.

Hot Air folks, Governor Wilder refused to endorse Obama, supposedly didn’t endorse Mitt Romney, but made the above statement.

smoothsailing on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

In the last and final Absentee Ballot request update from Ohio in 2012 shows that the democrats lost a total of 125,683 in 2012 compared to 2008 between them requesting 87,769 less ballots than 2008 and the Republicans gaining 37,914 ballots request compared to 2008. Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes and just in absentee ballots alone he lost 125,683 votes assuming that all democrats are voting for him…

Based on this Obama is certain to lose Ohio tomorrow…

Here is the link for Ohio absentee ballot request:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Huckabee/Palin 2016

because they both have fitness books on how to not be fat

hanzblinx on November 5, 2012 at 3:35 PM

But one is only actually fit.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Can we please knock off this ‘early voting’ crap? All we KNOW is the party affiliation of the person voting. PERIOD.

GarandFan on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

A Springsteen event in Madison drew 80,000 in ’04 for Kerry. It drew 18,000 for Obama today.

Perhaps just as much a commentary on the waning popularity of Springsteen’s tired act as it is on Obama’s.

Right Mover on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

My crystal ball has very bad vibes about OH and NV, the rest of the swing states will fall in line. The election will ride on whether last-moment push by Romney succeeds in PA, MI, WI, or (maybe?) MN.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Don’t want to be in any big liberal city tomorrow night if Zero loses…

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

GWB did some things well.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

My crystal ball has very bad vibes about OH and NV, the rest of the swing states will fall in line. The election will ride on whether last-moment push by Romney succeeds in PA, MI, WI, or (maybe?) MN.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

I see the problem: You forgot to plug it in!

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Love these numbers. Last night, I was in full Eeyore-mode when I crawled off to bed. Today, as the day goes on, I’m feeling pretty bullish about a pending Romney/Ryan victory. :)

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Lizard Man, please let it be Lizard Man.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 3:23 PM

He had his time.

MAYOR MCCHEESE 2012!

Gatsu on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

I don’t understand why the Obama camp is continuing to tout these new registrations they claim when Dem registration has FALLEN in many of these swing states, especially FL. And in OH, there are fewer registered voters in Dem strongholds than there were in ’08. Either I’m missing something, or he’s whistling past the graveyard.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Either they are delusional and they do not know to face reality and the truth or they are just liars and do not want to speak the truth….

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Apparently, Huckabee ate the unabridged version of his own.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Printed on rice paper, beans and ham mixed in.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Can we please knock off this ‘early voting’ crap? All we KNOW is the party affiliation of the person voting. PERIOD.

GarandFan on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

It is worse than that. In some states you do not have to state your party, so they are assuming party affiliation based on address

oceansidecon on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

None of this is helping my ulcer.

It’s Milk for lunch.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

I don’t understand why the Obama camp is continuing to tout these new registrations they claim when Dem registration has FALLEN in many of these swing states, especially FL. And in OH, there are fewer registered voters in Dem strongholds than there were in ’08. Either I’m missing something, or he’s whistling past the graveyard.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM
Either they are delusional and they do not know to face reality and the truth or they are just liars and do not want to speak the truth….

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Or both…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Perhaps just as much a commentary on the waning popularity of Springsteen’s tired act as it is on Obama’s.

Right Mover on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Heh. True enough. Mitt Romney by himself out-drew Obama AND The Boss last night in PA.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:41 PM

We’re going to win. It just feels like there is this huge woosh to Romney over the past 24/48 hours.

Don’t want to be in any big liberal city tomorrow night if Zero loses…

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM

I am – here’s hoping nothing happens.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Messina is a liar.

and he looks like Howdy Doody(i’m old)

gerrym51 on November 5, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Here’s where Messina falls apart…all those indies, 60% of those votes belong to Mitt…

IOWA ABSENTEE BALLOT RETURNS: Dems 42.2%, GOP 32.1%, Indies 25.6%; 2008 was 46.9% D, 28.9% R & 24.2% indy/other

If you do the math, that the indies are breaking 60/40 for Republicans (and more like 75/25)…than that lead of 10%, is actually only 5%…and that is easily taken care of by the much heavier turnout of Republican’s at the polls.

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 3:43 PM

I don’t understand why the Obama camp is continuing to tout these new registrations they claim when Dem registration has FALLEN in many of these swing states, especially FL. And in OH, there are fewer registered voters in Dem strongholds than there were in ’08. Either I’m missing something, or he’s whistling past the graveyard.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

That is the big thing – the registration. I don’t put too much stock in this early vote thing. It’s just one of many small indicators of how poorly Obama is doing compared to 2008.

My great hope is that as more states implement there voter roll purges and ID laws, that this will change a generation of voting. This and some voter fraud prosecutions.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 3:43 PM

None of this is helping my ulcer.

It’s Milk for lunch.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

The folks on the other side are nervous, too. A friend of mine told me that a mutual acquaintance has been all tied up in knots fearing that Obama will lose.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:43 PM

If you do the math, that the indies are breaking 60/40 for Republicans (and more like 75/25)…than that lead of 10%, is actually only 5%…and that is easily taken care of by the much heavier turnout of Republican’s at the polls.

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Where do you get that indies are breaking that much to Republicans?

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Bye-by old media.

By the next presidential cycle most of these people will be gone. They’ll have moved on to academia or think tanks or Democratic senate campaigns, or wherever aging hacks go when their union contracts finally, inevitably get voided. They’ll be replaced by a vibrant digital marketplace filled with hungry young reporters who care more about breaking stories than maintaining access to some politician or regulator.

All of this was probably inevitable, but it came faster than expected. Through their dishonesty the legacy media hastened their own end. Their moral authority has evaporated. So has their business model. Wave them goodbye on the way out.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Early birds and worm-entum.

Tequila!!

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

GWB did some things well.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

It’s nothing a few years of enforced self-deportation wouldn’t cure. In fact, I believe that putting a 100-ton lid on Hispandering will get more White votes than lose Latino votes. do you think union folks in Ohio and Pennsylvania are happy that both their jobs and their money flow to the invaders?

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Taking a page from the SEC, the FEC will allow for the first time, after-hours voting.

In order to participate, you must be a registered Democrat. There are no restrictions on the number of ballots that a single person can cast in after-hours voting.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 3:45 PM

I am – here’s hoping nothing happens.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 3:41 PM

So you aren’t going take a marching band through the City playing “God Bless The USA” led by a banner that says “Congratulations President Romney”?

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Mitt visiting Pittsburgh tomorrow, says the Tribune Review. No venue announced.

Philly on November 5, 2012 at 3:45 PM

I’ve been in London on business for a little over a week now and Sky News here has all but called it for Obama. I refuse to watch BBC News, but I suspect their narrative is similar.

Are the non-Fox networks doing much the same in the US?

flipflop on November 5, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

GWB did some things well.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Do you realize that Latino birthrates have completely meltdown? The great Hispanic “Take Over” has been called off.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Don’t want to be in any big liberal city tomorrow night if Zero loses…

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM

hehe, my daughter just moved to Gotham City. She will be reporting the glorious tears live to me.

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Ann Romney at the podium in Fairfax, VA: “hello, Virginia, are we going to be neighbors soon?” Crowd goes wild…

Romney now at podium, starting his speech. Begins with “I want to thank you, thank you, I want to thank you” and the crowd chants “go for mitt” or something like that. Very, very enthusiastic crowd.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 3:48 PM

I’m noticing a near-complete dearth of trolls.

The non-engagement movement having an effect?

novaculus on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Working very well. They are here but because no one is copying and pasting their garbage into responses, they are not taking over the threads.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Mitt will be speaking somewhere near the Pittsburgh International Airport.

Philly on November 5, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Are the non-Fox networks doing much the same in the US?

flipflop on November 5, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Nope – they’ve retreated into “one of the campaigns in right, and one is wrong” mode.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

GWB did some things well.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Nor really. Consider this: If we had started deporting the illegal aliens 8-10 years ago, we’d have a hell of a lot less illegals here now. In fact, we might also be very nearly done.

Just like the longest journey begins with the first step, getting control of illegal aliens begins with first busload headed south over the border.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Sign says: “Virginia is Romney Country.”

I’m thinking that Virginia is going for Romney tomorrow if not already.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Do you realize that Latino birthrates have completely meltdown? The great Hispanic “Take Over” has been called off.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 3:47 PM

To take over the South, Latinos don’t really need the extreme birth rate. Just keep the alligators away from that moat along Rio Grande.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Here’s something that I believe makes this news even better than it seems on the surface: Early voting breakdowns show nothing but party affiliation, NOT for whom the voter cast a ballot. So how many who voted for McLame in ’08 do you think are switching to Bronco Bama vs. the dozens of people you know that voted for The Won-and-Done who are now enthusiastic Romney voters? I don’t think you can conclude that all those who claim they are dems are necessarily voting for Obama. You could also argue that not all R voters are Romney, but I bet the percentages of that are significantly lower…and we know how the indies are breaking hard for Romney.

This is very, very good news!

Chewy the Lab on November 5, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

GWB did some things well.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Nor really. Consider this: If we had started deporting the illegal aliens 8-10 years ago, we’d have a hell of a lot less illegals here now. In fact, we might also be very nearly done.

Just like the longest journey begins with the first step, getting control of illegal aliens begins with first busload headed south over the border.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

I KNOW this throws water on their fire, but “the Latinos” are the ones with the problem. By them continuing to vote for Democrats, they recreate in the US all those icky governments they claim to have fled when they arrived here.

The “illegal immigration” issue is THEIR problem. THEY are the ones who have to straighten it out and they can start doing so by stop doing it. These are the harsh realities that the Liberals among them won’t face: their own wrong actions.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Geez, Springsteen doing a college event?

I graduated from college in ’87 and I thought Springsteen was a geezer then. Don’t these kids have anything better to do?

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

This is very, very good news!

Chewy the Lab on November 5, 2012 at 3:51 PM

And there is yet another factor, the net +7% for Romney due to “crossover” votes.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Nope – they’ve retreated into “one of the campaigns in right, and one is wrong” mode.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM
Hedging their bets I see. I’ll take that as a good sign.

flipflop on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Where do you get that indies are breaking that much to Republicans?

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Just one example from Rasumusen…

Obama actually loses the overall gender gap by three points (-7 among men, +4 among women), but he’s also losing independents in Virginia by 21 points, 58/37. In 2008, Obama had a +11 in the gender gap and won independents by one point, 49/48. The D/R/I in this sample is D+2 at 38/36/25; in 2008 it was 39/33/27 but in 2009′s gubernatorial election it was 33/37/30.

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

If Mitt Romney loses tomorrow, will the GOP nominate someone more conservative in 2016?

Drew Lowell on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I can’t remember the last time Republicans and many of my Independent friends were so enthusiastic about voting.

We know more first time or casual voters who are determined to vote for Mr. Romney. Personally, I find it startling this is barely being mentioned as a factor.

I believe that enthusiasm contrasted with a significant lack of progress on Mr. Obama’s stated accomplishments, our general hopeless economic malaise for which there are no fresh ideas, the divisiveness and the simple apprehension about our future will propel Mr. Romney to victory.

Many honest people were willing to give Mr. Obama a chance. But he has spent the last four years accomplishing very little he promised, dividing us more than ever and making the world a more dangerous place.

It’s truly time for a new beginning.

Marcus Traianus on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

It is worse than that. In some states you do not have to state your party, so they are assuming party affiliation based on address

oceansidecon on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

I think they’re assuming party affiliation based on which primary you voted in. I live in Virginia where we don’t register by party, but the Republicans can safely assume I’m a high propensity Republican voter just by looking at my voting record.

dczombie on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

No one is winning the early vote because the votes have not been counted yet.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 3:55 PM

I love how Romney poses issue complications by asking the audience to respond, and they do respond with the right answers. It’s a great way to both incorporate all voters to Romney’s Real Change and to get people acutely aware of what the problems are.

Really smart. And really considerate.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

If Mitt Romney loses tomorrow, will the GOP nominate someone more conservative in 2016?

Drew Lowell on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

If that happens, the GOP should simply disband.

dczombie on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Can we please knock off this ‘early voting’ crap? All we KNOW is the party affiliation of the person voting. PERIOD.
GarandFan on November 5, 2012 at 3:37 PM
It is worse than that. In some states you do not have to state your party, so they are assuming party affiliation based on address
oceansidecon on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

This. Where is all this information on early voters coming from? If I vote early in Wisconsin, my name is on the envelope. That’s it. How can anyone tell how I voted? Seems like a lot of crystal ball business going on.

MKH – what is the methodology behind all the numbers?

the_schmoo on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Early voting is screwing up polls.

gerrym51 on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Well my college kid who is in WI now is going to be voting for Romney tomorrow. I called him today to remind him. We already voted for Romney, sent our ballots in on Oct 1st. We are all in Waukesha County.

Brat4life on November 5, 2012 at 3:57 PM

Interesting tweet:

Brad Thor ‏@BradThor

BREAKING: Rumor I’m hearing out of Chicago is that Team #Obama plans to lie & preemptively declare BIG victory 2nite based on early voting.

As for early voting in Ohio, last week at an Ann Romney event, I talked to several different people, many of them campaign volunteers. They have made hundreds of phone calls, and there are a great number of people who (like me) are waiting to vote on Election Day. The Republicans in Ohio are fired up, and the GOTV is so much better than anything I’ve seen in this state before. I believe Romney will win Ohio comfortably, and we’ll know tomorrow night.

JenWestin on November 5, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Yes, Nevada is lost. So’s New Mexico, by pretty much all accounts.

And in turn, we’ve locked down Missouri and pushed MN and PA into tossup territory.

Why are people not considering that we can win – and win big – without catering to Mexican nationals or implementing amnesty?

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 3:59 PM

It’s official, I think Messina is freakishly ugly.

goflyers on November 5, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Well my college kid who is in WI now is going to be voting for Romney tomorrow. I called him today to remind him. We already voted for Romney, sent our ballots in on Oct 1st. We are all in Waukesha County.

Brat4life on November 5, 2012 at 3:57 PM

EVERYone I’ve spoken with, relatives and friends, on the East Coast, in the South (Florida and Georgia) and in Texas are VOTING ROMNEY/RYAN. *ALL* of them loathe Obama in the Presidency and cite his abysmal record, with special note of Benghazi, for that.

Here in California, NO ONE is even talking about it except among friends. It’s like the public is on horror-breath-hold, what with so many Democrats who have egg all over their faces with their former Obama mania.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Yes early voting ended in Florida on Saturday at 7:00PM. BUT and its a big BUT you could pickup a mail ballot on Sunday and Monday at the Board of Elections and fill it out and deposit in the ballot box with other mail in ballots. Early voting in everything but name.

I voted Saturday afternoon the total time it took was 45 minutes.

meci on November 5, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Who will the poor, poor trolls worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Romney has leaked internals. +1 in OH, tied in PA among others.

Donald Draper on November 5, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Nevada is lost. We pissed off Latinos too bad. That will be the undoing of the party if Romney loses.

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Yes, Nevada is lost. So’s New Mexico, by pretty much all accounts.

And in turn, we’ve locked down Missouri and pushed MN and PA into tossup territory.

Why are people not considering that we can win – and win big – without catering to Mexican nationals or implementing amnesty?

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Has New Mexico ever NOT gone for the Democrat/s?

That was rhetorical….

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 4:02 PM

So how many who voted for McLame in ’08 do you think are switching to Bronco Bama…

Oh, come on, there must be lots of people like that! Let’s see, there’s Meggie Mac, and then there’s… uh, well, there’s… hmm. I was going to say Steve Schmidt also, but I don’t think he voted for McCain in ’08.

Fabozz on November 5, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Capitalist Hog on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Nevada, New Mexico: government cheese is the reason. Same with California.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Something they may be missing here is what they missed in 1980. No one anticipated the HUGE number of Democrats voting for Reagan. We may see the same where where a Dem early vote doesn’t necessarily equal an Obama early vote.

mitchellvii on November 5, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Early voting is screwing up polls.

gerrym51 on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Romney being way ahead is screwing up polls.

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Clinton is speaking about a politician lying bold faced on TV.

hahahahahahahahahahahahaha

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Who will the poor, poor trolls worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Wednesday is their RIOT AMIDST THE CRYING JAG day.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Did the Mayans riot just before the Apocalypse?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:08 PM

From Steve in Philly…….

Teach a man to fish, you feed him for a lifetime……

Give a man a welfare check, a free cell phone with unlimited free minutes, free internet, cash for his clunker, food stamps, Section 8 housing, free contraceptives, Medicaid, ninety-nine weeks of unemployment, free medicine, free pizza to vote, and he will vote Democrat Party the rest of his life. Even after he’s dead.

FlaMurph on November 5, 2012 at 4:10 PM

I could be wrong but the people I know can’t wait to vote. The anticipation of throwing Obama out on his keester is palpable and driving people to the polls. And I live in AR, a state Romney will carry by a huge margin.

I just can’t believe that this will end up being close.

If Obama wins I expect a resurgence in federalism from dark Red states as we say Heck No to any more of the Obama agenda. It is a failure of centralizing power in DC that would allow CA together with WA and OR with their 74 EVs to basically dictate to the entire South who collectively have only 80.

We really need to return power to the states before the political Cold War turns hot. I refuse to believe conservatives will accept defeat and go quietly into the goodnight of socialism.

Charlemagne on November 5, 2012 at 4:10 PM

Bye-by old media.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Good read.

______________________________________________________________________

Losing this election:

1. Years-long automatic Democrat ascension. Obama/Pelosi/Reid overreaches saw to this by unmasking the unapologetically parasitical and openly vengeful face of the Democrat Party. Brand damaged. Badly.

2. Press, as Shad’s link explains so well. As a depression-era percentage American people are worried about having any job whatsoever, it is particularly galling to behold an oath-sworn profession devolve into a self-annointed, privileged caste who gleefully, loudly, and vulgarly refuse the actual duty of journalism.

3. Polling/Punditry. I actually feel sorry for Mr. Silver.

RushBaby on November 5, 2012 at 4:11 PM

No one is winning the early vote because the votes have not been counted yet.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Exactly, it’s only what segment has voted, not how they voted…the assumption that every dem votes for Obama, and every Republican votes for Romney is not accurate…however, this election, unlike 2004, you can safely say, not as many Republican’s will vote for Obama…and more independents will vote for Republican’s, I think that is a given…and all we need is a few % shift in the vote…

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 4:13 PM

I predict Nate Silver will be tarred and feathered by Wed afternoon.

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 4:13 PM

The Clark county Pro-Union Democrat voters are gonna vote back into office the same Moron that told the entire country, NOT to spend money in their city/county -Clark County (Las Vegas)- during an economic down turn.

The dumbing down is reaping what it sowed.

FlaMurph on November 5, 2012 at 4:15 PM

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