Seven states: Electoral math made easy

posted at 7:28 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

What follows will be old hat to most readers, who’ve been wargaming paths to 270 for six months now, but I’m thinking it might be useful to casual readers who are stopping by tonight and tomorrow because their interest in the election is peaking. Simple question: Which states does Romney need to win to clinch the presidency? BuzzFeed tried to answer this earlier today with a flow chart, but it doesn’t give you any sense of whether individual battlegrounds are likely right now to break red or blue. So here’s how I’m approaching it. Right off, to simplify things, I’m assuming Romney wins North Carolina (15 EVs) and Obama wins Nevada (6). Neither one is a lock but they seem to be the surest bets among swing states. Needless to say, if you live in either of those states (or any other state), you should hustle on down to the polls tomorrow and vote anyway. An upset for O in NC would all but guarantee that he wins the election, and low GOP turnout in Nevada would imperil Dean Heller, whom the party desperately needs to win to have a shot at retaking the Senate. No excuses. Vote, vote, vote.

If you assume NC and NV break red and blue, respectively, then the election starts with Obama at 207 EVs and Romney at 206, with seven states effectively left to decide things. Which brings us to…

The prerequisites: Florida (29), Virginia (13)

Romney leads by 1.5 points in the RCP average in Florida, his best showing in any battleground state. He’s led there for weeks and is widely expected to take the state. He’d better: 29 EVs would be next to impossible to replace. Virginia is more tenuous, with Obama actually holding a very slight lead in the poll of polls right now. Romney could replace those 13 EVs by winning one or more states listed below, but he’s led in multiple polls in Virginia over the past month and seems to be favored there by most analysts. If he loses a squeaker to O, there’d be little margin for error with the remaining five states and it’d likely augur a bad, bad trend for the evening. The good news is that Obama is off his 2008 pace in early voting and Romney aides feel confident that the combo of coal interests plus military voters will nudge him over the line.

If Romney wins both prerequisites, he’s at 248 and within striking distance of the White House. He then needs 22 electoral votes from any combination of these five:

The deciders: Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4)

Two obvious possibilities here.

Path One: Ohio + any other state. Even little New Hampshire would be enough to hand Romney the presidency if he locks down the Buckeye state and nothing else. (270-268!) The bad news is that Romney hasn’t led in a state poll in NH for nearly two weeks. The good news is that there’s no early voting there, so if you expect a nationwide trend of Republicans swamping Democrats at the polls tomorrow, then things look promising. In Ohio, Romney hasn’t led in any state poll since October 10 with the lone exception of Rasmussen, which had him up two points last week. Democratic early voting appears to be down, though, and Republicans traditionally outperform their national numbers slightly in Ohio. Tomorrow will be the ultimate test of Obama’s GOTV machine: Ohio Republicans know that the election will likely turn on their turnout, so it’s up to Team O to somehow blunt their numbers by dragging just enough half-hearted, disillusioned Hopenchange fans to the polls. Tall order.

Path Two: Wisconsin + Colorado + any other state. This is trickier, obviously, not only because it involves winning more states but because Romney actually trails by a wider margin in the Wisconsin RCP average than in Ohio. Colorado is within two points, though, and the GOP leads in early voting there(!). If CO comes through and Ryan/Walker magic leads to an upset in WI, then Romney can ignore Ohio and hope for Iowa to come through and win him the election. He trails there by less than 2.5 points and three different polls taken over the last two weeks or so have had him ahead by a point. If a red wave breaks tomorrow, it’ll probably carry Iowa with it.

So, what happens if Romney locks up the prerequisites in Florida and Virginia and then wins Colorado, say — but ends up losing narrowly in both Ohio and Wisconsin? Now he’s stuck at 257 and not even winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will get him to 270. Either he needs a huge upset in Nevada, which is unlikely if OH and WI are trending blue, or he needs…

The longshots: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10).

Actually, neither PA nor MI is a true longshot. Romney’s closer to Obama in the RCP average for each state (3.8 points in both Pennsylvania and Michigan) than he is in Wisconsin (4.2 points). He trails a bit more distantly in Minnesota (5.2 points), but even there, some polls have him either slightly ahead or within three. I’m listing these states here because they’re reliably blue in presidential elections and because the GOP has spent less time and money contesting them than it has in, say, Wisconsin. But if Romney runs into problems in the “decider” states, or if Virginia somehow falls through and he needs to find 13 EVs somewhere, obviously these will be crucially important. My hunch, though, is that if he’s losing narrowly in the more competitive midwestern states, like Ohio, then it’s unlikely he’ll reverse that trend in the less competitive ones. If any of the “longshot” states are turning red, it’s probably because there’s a huge Republican wave and Romney’s cruising to a landslide win. Here’s hoping.

***

If all of the above is too complicated, here’s a much simpler way to understand Romney’s task. Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory. If he doesn’t, then he’d have to win every other battleground state — Nevada included — or else.

Via Christian Heinze of GOP12, here’s the Rove map.


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A liberal SCOTUS will ruin us for a hundred years.

idalily on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 PM

We won’t last another hundred years if Obie’s re-elected.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 PM

I doubt Christie is accustomed to being on his feet and walking around all day long, getting little sleep or rest. The fatigue and constant tales of woe made him vulnerable. Apparently the guy really does care. The vulture socialists saw it and took advantage of it — never let a good crisis go to waste.

Not excusing it. He f’d up big time.

His political career beyond NJ is over. And despite his efforts his political career in NJ may be over.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

You bring up a good point. Who in the hell do the Democrats have in the pipeline for’16?

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Great question…

Let’s see — 2-term governors who are term-limited out in 2015:

Kentucky’s Steve Beshear — he’ll be 72 in 2016. Probably too old.

Maryland’s Martin O’Malley — he’ll be 53 in 2016. Mayor of Baltimore, spoke at the 2004 DNC, chaired the Democratic Governor’s Association, supported Hillary in ’08, primetime slot at 2012 DNC…

Massachusetts’s Deval Patrick. Still quite popular in Ma, but retiring in 2015 — and chose not to run for Scott Brown’s senate seat. Not sure how his race plays in 2016.

From Congress… dunno, I have such negative impressions of the Democrats in leadership positions. Perhaps some will make a splash opposing Romney’s agenda?

If Hillary doesn’t run (perhaps too wounded by Benghazi) and Obama doesn’t run… it might come down to Patrick and O’Malley, with Obama’s supporters lining up behind Patrick and Clinton’s supporters lining up behind O’Malley.

Some Obama cabinet members:

Ken Salazar — from Colorado, a swing state. Will be 61 in ’16. Is Secretary of the Interior, and was Senator from Colorado, though just for 4 years. He’s hispanic, and very much a centrist. (Was part of the “Gang of 14″.)

Kathleen Sebelius — was two-term governor of Kansas. Now Secretary of HHS. Was a VP speculation in ’04 and ’08. And she’s a woman. Will be 68 in ’16 — but she appears to have aged well.

And then, I guess, there are Andrew Cuomo and Mike Bloomberg — but I’d guess that Sandy has doomed both, for different reasons. (Cuomo for being invisible and Bloomberg for being visible.)

Anyone think of anyone else? I didn’t watch the Democratic Convention, so I don’t know who was well received and who was called on to warm up the crowd.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Is the Trollcott working as well as it seems, or did a certain someone get the ban hammer? Anybody know?

DrStock on November 5, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Say what you will about Christie — I’d love to see him as Secretary of Labor or Secretary of Education under Romney, just to hear the public sector unions scream.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Is the Trollcott working as well as it seems, or did a certain someone get the ban hammer? Anybody know?

DrStock on November 5, 2012 at 9:33 PM

A certain someone posted earlier (in this thread?) but no one responded and it went away. I’d say it’s working.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 PM

I’m really dumbfounded as to why this is even close. It’s the media and a politically and economically illiterate electorate. If Romney wins, the tea party needs to keep him in check, but also set its sights on the media. under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

Yes. We all need to keep the pressure on the MSM. They will still be the same Treasonous Fifth Column they were before the election and you know they will have some very creative and devious tricks up their sleeves to discredit and tear Romney down every chance they get. I want to see them broken, their credibility destroyed, their becoming completely irrelevant to the national discourse. They should be made to pay dearly for the disgrace they helped put in the White House.

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Say a prayer before you go to the voting booth. I’ll say a prayer for you. Just vote for Romney. And Allen, too.

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 9:35 PM

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Oh wow thanks for the info DrStock. I have to look into those names and see what’s doing there.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 9:36 PM

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 PM

Outstanding! The threads are readable now.

DrStock on November 5, 2012 at 9:36 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

banhammer?

c4 on November 5, 2012 at 9:37 PM

I mean ClintACK…:|

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 9:37 PM

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Kirsten Gillbrand

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Good to know. Sabato is excellent, but no one can beat the Redskins Rule (except in 2004, natch).

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 PM

The Modified Redskins Rule is unbroken – replace “the party in power” with “the party that last won the popular vote.”

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 PM

If Hillary doesn’t run (perhaps too wounded by Benghazi) and Obama doesn’t run…
ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Frankly, after these past four years, either Hillary or Obama better not get it into either of their thick heads to try for a run in 2016 or 2020 or beyond.

They both have records — terribly abysmal ones, which, especially in Obama’s case, should be trotted out regularly as a warning of what we endured and don’t ever want to go through again. Does anyone really think he’s going to mellow out, that he won’t have the same hatred for this country he has now? You all know the answer.

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 PM

We won’t last another hundred years if Obie’s re-elected.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

This

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 9:46 PM

I doubt Christie is accustomed to being on his feet and walking around all day long, getting little sleep or rest. The fatigue and constant tales of woe made him vulnerable. Apparently the guy really does care. The vulture socialists saw it and took advantage of it — never let a good crisis go to waste.

Not excusing it. He f’d up big time.

His political career beyond NJ is over. And despite his efforts his political career in NJ may be over.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy. I loathe him with an intensity I honestly cannot even muster for the current occupant of the White House. If Romney loses this, that fat fu**er in NJ will be a big reason why — he gave Zero the photo op he so desperately needed to stop Romney’s climb in the polls, and he just keeps giving and giving to Zero in these final days of the campaign. I wish that fat fu**er nothing but misery and despair. He is going to be a man with few friends. And if he thinks Zero and Springsteen are his new best friends, then the fat globules have invaded that tiny little brain that sits atop his disgustingly fat, pussy, grotesque body. He and Zero deserve one another — two venal men motivated by nothing but vanity borne of pathetic insecurity.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:50 PM

And Ann Coulter just defended fatso on Hannity.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Ann’s always had a hard on for the Sta-puff Governor.

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 9:54 PM

Good to know. Sabato is excellent, but no one can beat the Redskins Rule (except in 2004, natch).

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 PM

The Modified Redskins Rule is unbroken – replace “the party in power” with “the party that last won the popular vote.”

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Anyone can crack a sports almanac or weather, or whatever, and make up their own ‘rule’ about who will win an election. The rule will hold until it doesn’t.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Anyone can crack a sports almanac or weather, or whatever, and make up their own ‘rule’ about who will win an election. The rule will hold until it doesn’t.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 9:57 PM

Just like anyone can cook up a “model,” arbitrarily weight the component variables, and suddenly declare that Obama’s now a 90% favorite to win?

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:58 PM

in 2008, I supported McCain for the party, and because Palin was his VP, and because I did not want obama to be elected.

But this year is different. I was hoping Palin would get in, and then hoping that Perry would not falter. But when it came down to Romney, I looked at him and realized that he would be the one.

And as the campaign went on, I went from supporting Romney because i am anti-obama, but then something changed. And it happened even before he chose Ryan as his VP. I saw the man everyone was talking about and realized that Mitt was someone I could support.

Not just because he was a Republican, not just because he was the choice, but because of the stories and the realism of the man and what he stands for.

So tomorrow, in my view, not only are we voting out obama and send him packing to Chicago, Hawaii or elsewhere, but we are voting for a man of character and a man, whom I believe will do exactly what he says.

At churches, you’re not supposed to tell whom the vote for (however, the dems always do and get away with it.), but what we told our church was to vote for morality and values that made this country great. And that is amplified in 2 men tomorrow.

Romney/Ryan 2012. Vote for Love of Country!

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Have I missed AP’s prediction? Anyone have a link, if so?

Allah…penny for your thoughts. How do you think it will break down?

Bee on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 PM

The Benghazi Story: Mass Grave of Reputations

Maybe the anonymous “senior U.S. intelligence officials” who gave out a “detailed timeline” about the Benghazi fiasco on Thursday never heard of Healy’s Law: “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.”

That is because the hole in which they found themselves will surely end up a mass grave for their reputations and for many others’ — beginning with General David Petraeus.

Petraeus’ sterling reputation was beginning to become forever tarnished by the failure of his COIN strategy, but that’s a tale for another post, because the “detailed timeline” that was briefed or e-mailed to the media is coming under severe attack on The Hill and elsewhere — particularly by Fox.

The “detailed timeline” contains glaring conflicts with earlier background briefings, leaks, and independent reporting, but, most importantly, it contains conflicts with what Petraeus himself told Congress when he, just three days after the attack, was calling it, as described by the inimitable Mark Steyn, a “movie review that just got a little out of hand.”

VorDaj on November 5, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Saw Obama at halftime
I want to vomit

Counting points out on his fingers
That smirky grin
College bowl tornament. Promise made, promise delivered

Romney
Question more serious
Sports enhancing drugs

audiotom on November 5, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Im voting before work tomorrow. Can’t wait. This election is distracting me from studying for the CPA exam…lol. I find myself re-freshing Drudge, Hotair, and Breitbart every 3 mins

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Im voting before work tomorrow. Can’t wait. This election is distracting me from studying for the CPA exam…lol. I find myself re-freshing Drudge, Hotair, and Breitbart every 3 mins

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 PM

I keep refreshing too. It’s like taking your temperature every 5 minutes.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 10:26 PM

A liberal SCOTUS will ruin us for a hundred years.
idalily on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Forever. R.I.P. USA. 10 years, tops.

Who is John Galt on November 5, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Oh, how I am waiting for tomorrow night.

All the signs point to the Obama victory I’ve been predicting since I’ve been here.

I TOLD YOU SO!

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 10:35 PM

under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

Wrong. Under 30, 21, I’m hearing, graduate to no jobs and talk of having to pay off the debt. They ain’t happy.

Who is John Galt on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

banhammer?

c4 on November 5, 2012 at 9:37 PM

Branch from a tree.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 PM

I’m really dumbfounded as to why this is even close. It’s the media and a politically and economically illiterate electorate. If Romney wins, the tea party needs to keep him in check, but also set its sights on the media. under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

Wow, the drama queens are out in force tonight. So tell us, would American capitalism stand on stronger ground if the heart of its manufacturing base had been crippled with the collapse of the American automakers? Let’s be honest- conservatives don’t build the companies and jobs of the future, and had the American auto industry turned into a mirror of foreign auto assembly found in Mexico and Vietnam, nothing would filled the void.

There’s a reason why the great capitalist entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and previously Steve Jobs support Obama. Capitalism thrives with a strong middle class and more tax cuts that would ultimately favor the wealthiest, esp. the elimination of the estate tax, isn’t going to help the middle class thrive.

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Wrong. Under 30, 21, I’m hearing, graduate to no jobs and talk of having to pay off the debt. They ain’t happy.

Who is John Galt on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 PM

If you have the right education, a computer science or engineering degree, that’s patently false. There is negative unemployment in the digital and knowledge economies. Those sectors are on fire with companies fighting over a limited number of qualified candidates.

But I agree that other parts of the economy, those exposed to competition in a globalized world, are suffering and will continue to face slow job growth.

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 10:43 PM

http://www.breitbart.com/mediaserver/324298434A3B479BB2FA74A29593398B.png
Love this. Barry’s final rally in Ohio with Springsteen and Jay-Z was as much a dud as the candidate.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 10:57 PM

Hah either way my hearts pounding uncontrollably right now. Obama with 4 more years = America is done

BrianVII

The ground game has been executed, the dye is cast, and now it’s time to have a drink, exhale and turn the problem over to God…it’s in his hands now.

Turn off the talking heads.
Watch a movie or put on music. It’s going to be okay.

We won’t let Her become Socialist…one way or another.

Typicalwhitewoman on November 5, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Trollcott!!!!!

Katfish on November 5, 2012 at 11:08 PM

Even Glenn Beck today was talking about what we should do after Romney loses. Now he said he did not think he would lose. But seriously at this point to think that Romney will win is just wishful thinking. Baring a miracle he will lose.

What makes me upset is this was predictable back before we nominated him. This makes six Establishment Republicans to run for President since Nixon and all six lost. They say doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result is insanity. Is that what the Republican Party is insane?

The Establishment was holding Christie out as the nominee in 2016. Now Christie has all but endorsed Obama.

We either go with a conservative or we might as well just vote for Democrats as Democrats win when Establishment Republicans run.

Steveangell on November 5, 2012 at 11:21 PM

D’s think they can win because they have cooked a few polls, R’s think they are going to win because of the votes. Only the votes count.

Tater Salad on November 5, 2012 at 11:23 PM

Romney very much looks like he’s going to mop the floor with Obama tomorrow, but all the rampant gumbyism has gotten to me :/

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 11:23 PM

Trollcott!!!!!

Katfish

Me bad? Crapola!
Point understood.

Typicalwhitewoman on November 5, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Trollcott!!!!!

Katfish

Me bad? Crapola!
Point understood.

Typicalwhitewoman on November 5, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Ma’am no WAY was I casting aspersions your way…………..look for the last trollish post above yours………if I understand ignoring trolls – the idea is only to remind folks not to respond to them – I try to take it one step further and refuse to mention their name……..

Katfish on November 5, 2012 at 11:34 PM

The ground game has been executed, the dyedie is cast, and now it’s time to have a drink, exhale and turn the problem over to God…it’s in his hands now.

Typicalwhitewoman on November 5, 2012 at 10:58 PM

You are so right. We have prayed over this and left it in the Lord’s hands. It would be wrong to be pessimistic after that, “Lord, I believe, help my unbelief”. We have been blessed with freedom and liberty; to throw it away for “free” stuff is an abomination; particularly when that free stuff is obtained by coveting what others have and voting for the government to steal it for you.

AZfederalist on November 5, 2012 at 11:34 PM

If one includes a troll’s handle when cheering the Trollcott – it’s tantamount to responding to them……….

Katfish on November 5, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Ken Salazar — from Colorado, a swing state. Will be 61 in ’16. Is Secretary of the Interior, and was Senator from Colorado, though just for 4 years. He’s hispanic, and very much a centrist. (Was part of the “Gang of 14″.)

Who also spearheaded the bans on oil drilling throughout the country, killing off an untold number of jobs, for purely political reasons. A centrist. Riiiiiiiiiiight.

Kathleen Sebelius — was two-term governor of Kansas. Now Secretary of HHS. Was a VP speculation in ’04 and ’08. And she’s a woman. Will be 68 in ’16 — but she appears to have aged well.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

With her attempts to force the contraception mandate on the Catholic Church this year, well, I guess she could be defined as “centrist” by Democrat standards.

But her nomination would probably lead to an irreparable schism in the Catholic Church between the Orthodox congregation, and the ‘anything goes’ congregation, which is where all Democrat pols wind up in anyway.

Myron Falwell on November 5, 2012 at 11:36 PM

D’s think they can win because they have cooked a few polls, R’s think they are going to win because of the votes. Only the votes count.

Tater Salad on November 5, 2012 at 11:23 PM

What we thought in 2000. Wrong.

What we thought in 2008. Wrong.

These polling companies have to think past this election.

Wishful thinking would be to think they are getting it wrong. People here always ignore the Conservatives that will never vote for a person as liberal as Mitt Romney. They will stay home or just leave the Presidential question blank. I will leave it blank.

Obama is absolutely horrible. Worst than imagination even allows mostly. But so was GW Bush in his second term. Romney is GW Bush in his second term. Romney would destroy the GOP just like GW Bush did.

Steveangell on November 5, 2012 at 11:37 PM

I have tried every combination of phrases I can think of to narrow down the results, and I still can’t find it.

It’s a video clip of Obama at a townhall and he is trying to talk about the ten-year cost of Obamacare but he can’t remember the numbers. He keeps repeating “the analysts estimate that the cost of the bill over ten years is– the cost of the bill over ten years is–.” Then, evidently because can’t remember the cost of the bill, he starts pretending the crowd is cheering him and starts doing the “thank you, I love you too” routine. But the crowd is just silent and staring at him. Its a very powerful clip, and for the life of me I cannot find it on any search engine.

Somebody help!

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBX8sz3tO8

rottenrobbie on November 5, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Wow

Just found this nugget inside the Gallup poll:

Likely Voters

Does President Obama deserve reelection:

Yes 48%
NO 51%

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 11:54 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBX8sz3tO8

rottenrobbie on November 5, 2012 at 11:54 PM

That’s brutal. He says he can’t hear himself think, but it’s deathly quiet in that room.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 11:59 PM

The fact that it’s even a close race means that America has already lost.

The Resolute Desk on November 6, 2012 at 12:18 AM

The fact that it’s even a close race

The “fact” that you believe that’s a fact speaketh volumes…………..

Katfish on November 6, 2012 at 12:37 AM

Vote for Love of Country!

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 PM

I will so I’ll be voting for Barack Obama tomorrow.

independentvoice on November 6, 2012 at 1:04 AM

There’s a reason why the great capitalist entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and previously Steve Jobs support Obama.

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 10:39 PM

They have much to gain from a corporate-government alliance which favors monopolies, while smaller business has more to gain from a free market system. Ford made deals with communist Russia in the 1920′s building the auto plant at Nizhny Novgorod.

Its nothing new.

sharrukin on November 6, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Katfish on November 6, 2012 at 12:37 AM

Not sure I understand your point. Professional polling firms point to a statistical tie. It may be an inexact science, but it isn’t pure guesswork. These firms do more than just conduct polls for political contests once every four years, you realize…?

The Resolute Desk on November 6, 2012 at 1:36 AM

Romney will win with +350 Electoral Votes

Conservative4Ever on November 6, 2012 at 3:32 AM


INSTEAD OF SCARING ALL WITH THAT ROMNEY NEEDS TO WIN THIS AND THAT,

ASK YOURSELF ALL WHAT OBAMA NEEDS TO WIN.

with his record, no state can be taken for granted. Not only PA but even Oregon, WA and CA who still has 40% republicans that if 80% turn out can switch this state as well.

turnout is the answer and turnout for Obama is for sure 3% lower than in stellar year 2008 when he got only 53%.

huntingmoose on November 6, 2012 at 3:55 AM

You bring up a good point. Who in the hell do the Democrats have in the pipeline for’16?

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

The Media. All one has to do is look at their boy right now. Without them he never gets elected dog catcher.

bgibbs1000 on November 6, 2012 at 4:15 AM

If Cuomo is disabled by Sandy – and it is not at all clear he will be – Evan Bayh is still rather untarnished. Or if Bob Kerrey manages to win back his old Senate seat in Nebraska, he might be viable.

O’Malley lacks the intellect for it. Hillary, Obama, and Biden will be old, tired news.

John Kerry reports for duty again? Or maybe Howard Dean YEEEAAAAAAAARRRGH!!!!!!!1!

Adjoran on November 6, 2012 at 4:28 AM

There’s a reason why the great capitalist entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and previously Steve Jobs support Obama.

Hey Dumbass. Where are all the Apple products made?

Rhymes with Dinah.

BigAlSouth on November 6, 2012 at 5:43 AM

Is it possible that even REAL CLEAR POLITICS is being corrupted?

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/05/Obama-closes-to-half-empty-stadium-in-Ohio

This appears to be DEFINITE SPIN on the reporting of attendance at the rally.

And why does the RCP average into the poll results these wacky +11 Dem samples, since we almost never get gop over samples?

PappyD61 on November 6, 2012 at 6:35 AM

Election day here finally….and my Eeyoreism is in full flourish. Hard to see how all that needs to break for Romney to win will. God knows, I pray I am wrong, but thinkthe deck is too stacked aginst him. God help us all, and with that I will bunker down and avoid everything until it’s over.

Huckabye-Romney on November 6, 2012 at 6:53 AM

The Resolute Desk on November 6, 2012 at 1:36 AM

No denying the pollsters are ‘professional’…….BUT IMHO they are ALL full of prunes and being quite disingenuous.

They are ‘pushing’ the numbers (in many if not most instances) based on their agendas……just like your local evening news cares more about ratings than they do the actual news.

If I was ‘king’ NO ONE in the media would be able to utter a single election return syllable today until AFTER 7 pm in Hawaii.

Katfish on November 6, 2012 at 7:08 AM

We won’t last another hundred years if Obie’s re-elected.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 PM

And not only because of the damage Obama will do, but because of what this would demonstrate about the American Electorate.

neuquenguy on November 6, 2012 at 8:27 AM

Romney/Ryan 2012. Vote for Love of Country!

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 PM

I feel the same way, I think I saw the goodness in Romney at about the same time. It will feel good to know I am voting for a decent, man of faith that is capable to handle this mess we have.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:34 AM

INSTEAD OF SCARING ALL WITH THAT ROMNEY NEEDS TO WIN THIS AND THAT,

ASK YOURSELF ALL WHAT OBAMA NEEDS TO WIN.

huntingmoose on November 6, 2012 at 3:55 AM

Excellent point.

wi farmgirl on November 6, 2012 at 8:36 AM

I predict a landslide for Romney. I can’t believe that there are that many idiots in this country. I can’t wait for the day that I don’t have to listen to Obama’s annoying voice. Also, to have to watch him bounce down the steps from Air Force One, although I have hoped that he would have a Gerald Ford moment.

lhuffman34 on November 6, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I too predict a landslide for Romney. If not, I don’t think we have the basis for a Republic anymore, regardless of what Obama would do with another 4 years.

claudius on November 6, 2012 at 9:00 AM

‘Toon of the Day: Masks, Revenge, Revelations

M2RB: Coco Bongo Jim Carrey

Resist We Much on November 6, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Chicago Source Tells Author Brad Thor: Obama Campaign Planning to Proclaim Early Victory to ‘Demoralize Romney Supporters’
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/chicago-source-tells-author-brad-thor-obama-campaign-planning-to-proclaim-early-victory-to-demoralize-romney-supporters/

New York Times best-selling author Brad Thor, based in Chicago, tells TheBlaze that the Obama campaign may be planning to preemptively announce victory in the presidential election based on early voting numbers in an attempt to “demoralize Mitt Romney supporters.”

Galt2009 on November 6, 2012 at 9:41 AM

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