Seven states: Electoral math made easy

posted at 7:28 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

What follows will be old hat to most readers, who’ve been wargaming paths to 270 for six months now, but I’m thinking it might be useful to casual readers who are stopping by tonight and tomorrow because their interest in the election is peaking. Simple question: Which states does Romney need to win to clinch the presidency? BuzzFeed tried to answer this earlier today with a flow chart, but it doesn’t give you any sense of whether individual battlegrounds are likely right now to break red or blue. So here’s how I’m approaching it. Right off, to simplify things, I’m assuming Romney wins North Carolina (15 EVs) and Obama wins Nevada (6). Neither one is a lock but they seem to be the surest bets among swing states. Needless to say, if you live in either of those states (or any other state), you should hustle on down to the polls tomorrow and vote anyway. An upset for O in NC would all but guarantee that he wins the election, and low GOP turnout in Nevada would imperil Dean Heller, whom the party desperately needs to win to have a shot at retaking the Senate. No excuses. Vote, vote, vote.

If you assume NC and NV break red and blue, respectively, then the election starts with Obama at 207 EVs and Romney at 206, with seven states effectively left to decide things. Which brings us to…

The prerequisites: Florida (29), Virginia (13)

Romney leads by 1.5 points in the RCP average in Florida, his best showing in any battleground state. He’s led there for weeks and is widely expected to take the state. He’d better: 29 EVs would be next to impossible to replace. Virginia is more tenuous, with Obama actually holding a very slight lead in the poll of polls right now. Romney could replace those 13 EVs by winning one or more states listed below, but he’s led in multiple polls in Virginia over the past month and seems to be favored there by most analysts. If he loses a squeaker to O, there’d be little margin for error with the remaining five states and it’d likely augur a bad, bad trend for the evening. The good news is that Obama is off his 2008 pace in early voting and Romney aides feel confident that the combo of coal interests plus military voters will nudge him over the line.

If Romney wins both prerequisites, he’s at 248 and within striking distance of the White House. He then needs 22 electoral votes from any combination of these five:

The deciders: Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4)

Two obvious possibilities here.

Path One: Ohio + any other state. Even little New Hampshire would be enough to hand Romney the presidency if he locks down the Buckeye state and nothing else. (270-268!) The bad news is that Romney hasn’t led in a state poll in NH for nearly two weeks. The good news is that there’s no early voting there, so if you expect a nationwide trend of Republicans swamping Democrats at the polls tomorrow, then things look promising. In Ohio, Romney hasn’t led in any state poll since October 10 with the lone exception of Rasmussen, which had him up two points last week. Democratic early voting appears to be down, though, and Republicans traditionally outperform their national numbers slightly in Ohio. Tomorrow will be the ultimate test of Obama’s GOTV machine: Ohio Republicans know that the election will likely turn on their turnout, so it’s up to Team O to somehow blunt their numbers by dragging just enough half-hearted, disillusioned Hopenchange fans to the polls. Tall order.

Path Two: Wisconsin + Colorado + any other state. This is trickier, obviously, not only because it involves winning more states but because Romney actually trails by a wider margin in the Wisconsin RCP average than in Ohio. Colorado is within two points, though, and the GOP leads in early voting there(!). If CO comes through and Ryan/Walker magic leads to an upset in WI, then Romney can ignore Ohio and hope for Iowa to come through and win him the election. He trails there by less than 2.5 points and three different polls taken over the last two weeks or so have had him ahead by a point. If a red wave breaks tomorrow, it’ll probably carry Iowa with it.

So, what happens if Romney locks up the prerequisites in Florida and Virginia and then wins Colorado, say — but ends up losing narrowly in both Ohio and Wisconsin? Now he’s stuck at 257 and not even winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will get him to 270. Either he needs a huge upset in Nevada, which is unlikely if OH and WI are trending blue, or he needs…

The longshots: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10).

Actually, neither PA nor MI is a true longshot. Romney’s closer to Obama in the RCP average for each state (3.8 points in both Pennsylvania and Michigan) than he is in Wisconsin (4.2 points). He trails a bit more distantly in Minnesota (5.2 points), but even there, some polls have him either slightly ahead or within three. I’m listing these states here because they’re reliably blue in presidential elections and because the GOP has spent less time and money contesting them than it has in, say, Wisconsin. But if Romney runs into problems in the “decider” states, or if Virginia somehow falls through and he needs to find 13 EVs somewhere, obviously these will be crucially important. My hunch, though, is that if he’s losing narrowly in the more competitive midwestern states, like Ohio, then it’s unlikely he’ll reverse that trend in the less competitive ones. If any of the “longshot” states are turning red, it’s probably because there’s a huge Republican wave and Romney’s cruising to a landslide win. Here’s hoping.

***

If all of the above is too complicated, here’s a much simpler way to understand Romney’s task. Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory. If he doesn’t, then he’d have to win every other battleground state — Nevada included — or else.

Via Christian Heinze of GOP12, here’s the Rove map.


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What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

HornetSting:Lol,yes tommorrow will be….. “WHACKING DAY”!:)
=============================================================

“Whacking Day”
****************

is the twentieth episode of The Simpsons’ fourth season, and originally aired April 29, 1993.[1] It concerns the fictional holiday “Whacking Day”, celebrated annually May 10, in which the citizens of Springfield drive snakes into the town square, then club them to death.(Mor….)
============================

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whacking_Day

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney wins PA, FL, VA, NC, IA
Romney loses: CO, OH, NH, NV

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

That’s about where I am, too, in assumption. But CO just may go to Romney after viewing the huge support turnout he’s received there. It’s been a red state up until only recently after the infux of activists from CA and Chicago and Mexico ruined those values.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:26 PM

TROLLCOT, PEOPLE!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM


TROLLPOCALYPSE!
(NSMH – Not safe for mental health)

Alberta_Patriot on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Geesh. Why am I the only one who thinks Romney will win Nevada but not Wisconsin? :(

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

60/40 or bust

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

well, if you combine that joke CNN 49/49 D+11 poll with RAS` R+6 party ID……

NY Conservative on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

I’m really dumbfounded as to why this is even close. It’s the media and a politically and economically illiterate electorate. If Romney wins, the tea party needs to keep him in check, but also set its sights on the media. under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Granny McBotox would be shining up her broom.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Perfect! lol

Barred on November 5, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Hah either way my hearts pounding uncontrollably right now. Obama with 4 more years = America is done

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Drink heavily.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Crist wasn’t bad until he got beat by Marco. Bitter man after that.

But I am voting for one ‘rat tomorrow.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:24 PM

omg lol please tell me it is a state thing and not a house or senate vote

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Kos has published his final predictions. He expects that Obama will win the popular vote by a 3.5% margin, and 332 electoral votes. Romney wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I expect that the Kos Kidz will cry that the Republicans stole the election through fraud — or something like that.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

And all these delusional low IQ fools can sleep tight tonight dreaming of a great victory tomorrow. Then tomorrow night around 11:30 PM the reality of utter defeat will destroy their delusional world when Romney is declared the 45th elected President of the United States…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

These libs are in for a rude awakening tomorrow.

ghostwriter on November 5, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Romney -292 Electoral Votes!
============================

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:29 PM

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Wouldn’t want to be him :)

Cheers!

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Cheers, my friend!

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 8:30 PM

omg lol please tell me it is a state thing and not a house or senate vote

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:28 PM

No, Katydid. U.S. Congressman. Mica is a lifer who lied to the Republican incumbent, Sandy Adams, during redistricting.

I will vote for his ‘rat opponent, Jason Kendall.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM


N O
P O L L
T R O L L…
TROLLCOTT

…everybodyelse is fine!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

So what’s the deal with Dixville Notch?

Dusty on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I’m really dumbfounded as to why this is even close. It’s the media and a politically and economically illiterate electorate. If Romney wins, the tea party needs to keep him in check, but also set its sights on the media. under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

God told me to tell you to go to the polls tomorrow, and vote for Romney and Allen. :)

Kidding aside, we need the help, and you enough to know that we need to beat Obama.

ghostwriter on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

RCP averages oversample Democrats by a range of 11 points (D+5 when the current party identification is R+6) to 17 points. They are useless and any analysis based on them is a waste of time.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Agreed. If that’s the case, Mitt will win in a landslide.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM
…………..
This is the bottom line, you are both right! Landslide Romney!

rodguy911 on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I don’t know how much more of this I can take.

usedtobeinmich on November 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

If you really want suspense, imagine THIS scenario:

Polls close in the East, Romney wins FL, NC, and VA, but loses PA. Romney at 248 EV (including deep red states).

Polls close in Central Time. Romney wins WI and IA, loses Ohio and MI, Romney at 264 EV, and COLORADO (Mountain Time) becomes the decisive state!

Then there’s the scenario where Romney wins FL, NC, VA, and CO, and Obama wins WI, MI, and PA, but Ohio is too close to call., and IA and NH are too small to put either candidate over 270. So then we have to wait 10 DAYS until election officials figure out which provisional ballots and late military absentee ballots are valid, and we get the Buckeye version of Bush v. Gore in Florida, Y2K.

If we don’t like suspense, those Ohio Republicans need to make it happen!

Steve Z on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Geesh. Why am I the only one who thinks Romney will win Nevada but not Wisconsin? :(

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Because there are a few of us from Wisconsin who see what’s happening in the state, there is a different outlook around here after all the recall elections.

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I could have sworn I saw polls recently with Romney up in NH

Lord of the Wings on November 5, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Hey Pink. How will Romney not win CO, NH and OH if he wins PA? I think you can slide PA into Romney loses, and CO, NH, and OH into Romney wins.

That is my prediction: Romney 51.5% – 295 electoral votes. Senate 51 Republicans.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I explained it upthread:

If we take PA, which I continue to contend is MORE likely to go our way then OH. I vehemently disagree with Allah that OH is an easier get then PA. Or that Romney can only win PA on a red wave. Bottom line all politics are local.

The fundamentals favor Romney much more in PA then OH.
Here are some reasons why I think PA will go to Romney:

1) Unemployment is 8.2% in PA (above national average)
2) EPA’s war on coal (At least a dozen coal plants shut down)
3) Obama’s comments on reinstating the AW ban during debate #2. NRA has been running wall to wall ads with that in PA (NRA is big in PA)
4) Obama’s war on the Catholic Church (Catholics make up a higher % of population then national average)
5) Polls show a dead heat with Obama at 48%. Incumbent at 48% with a few days to election will certainly lose.

Here are some reasons why I think OH will go to Obama:

1) Unemployment in OH is 6.9% (Below national average)
2) Bailout is still very popular there.
3) OH has been trending LEFT. (In 2004, it was more Democratic then national average)
4) OH loves losers (Browns, Bengals, Indians, Cavaliers)
5) Obama has carpet bombed the state for over 7 months with Romney=Hitler ads (Romney didn’t run ads till last 2 months)
6) Kasich remains deeply unpopular. (26% approval)
7) Unions are riding a victory in defeating Kasich’s union reform bill.

With that said Romney could still win OH, but it will be by a margin of 25,000 votes or so.

I think Romney will win the election. And PA will go RED. Likely losing OH however.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:32 PM

*************** RUMOUR Alert *****************

Adviser to Chris Christie denying report that Christie turned down offer from Romney campaign to appear at Sunday rally – @PoliticalTicker

11 mins ago by editor
==========================

CNN Political Ticker ‏@PoliticalTicker

Christie adviser denies report about Romney invitation – http://wp.me/p4HKM-16p7

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

He keeps repeating “the analysts estimate that the cost of the bill over ten years is– the cost of the bill over ten years is–.” Then, evidently because can’t remember the cost of the bill, he starts pretending the crowd is cheering him and starts doing the “thank you, I love you too” routine. But the crowd is just silent and staring at him. Its a very powerful clip, and for the life of me I cannot find it on any search engine.

Somebody help!

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

I’m kinda’ worn out at this hour and trying to close down for the evening or I’d be looking for you…

But I DID just do a search of your phrase there…

“the analysts estimate that the cost of the bill over ten years is– the cost of the bill over ten years is–.”

…and got pages upon pages of results, most of the first three pages I read were from news sites and respectable opinion sites…

so you will likely find a video of that being said by Obama if it’s still on the internet. I am guessing, however, what with your previous efforts having failed to find a video, that it’s inevitably been taken down from the internet “because it makes Obama look stupid” — as stupid as he is.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

So what’s the deal with Dixville Notch?

Dusty on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

They vote at midnight. As goes Dixville, so goes the country.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Do you think that recall really changed things? If that is the case, I will be more than happy to be wrong.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

One of the ‘tells’ is the house races. There is even talk of Repubs gaining seats. If dem turnout was close to what the polls are saying, more house seats would be flipping. Remember, many of those house seats were picked up in the 2010 wave. I don’t see many dems ticket splitting for O and a repub congress critter.

Animal60 on November 5, 2012 at 8:34 PM

No, Katydid. U.S. Congressman. Mica is a lifer who lied to the Republican incumbent, Sandy Adams, during redistricting.

I will vote for his ‘rat opponent, Jason Kendall.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

i get your reasoning so i cant be cranky about it but i really really dont want to lose control of the house to the dems again… that path leads to destruction. and if we have any hope of taking the fangs out of O-Care we need to take back the senate as well

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:34 PM

i get your reasoning so i cant be cranky about it but i really really dont want to lose control of the house to the dems again… that path leads to destruction. and if we have any hope of taking the fangs out of O-Care we need to take back the senate as well

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Ain’t gonna lose the House.

And unfortunately, Kendall won’t get closer than 39% against Mica.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:35 PM

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

All politics are local IMO like I explained above. I think PA is easier get because it’s trending rightward while OH is trending left.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:35 PM

seesalrun2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

thumbs up!!!

CoffeeLover on November 5, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Who will the Left worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

They will find some fool to worship in a year or two from now… Maybe Obama would decide to run again in 2016 because he is allowed by our Constitution to run again as he is was only one term President…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Props to all of you from Wisconsin if you put us over the hump.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

I am just freaking sick to my stomach. I cannot wait to vote tomorrow. Going at 7 am.
I manned the phones at the local Republican HQ and spoke with both Republicans and Democrats on the phone. There was not one person I spoke to who said they were voting for Obama. Several Democrats I spoke with said they had voted for Obama and are now voting for Romney. One particular one said she and her whole family cannot wait to vote for Romney. She said voting for Obama was the biggest mistake she ever made.

Still… I find it hard to believe Pennsylvania would vote R… but it’s possible. We just elected a Republican Governor. The last Democrat Governor was a former mayor of Philly, Ed Rendell, .. and the one before that was Casey. A popular Pro-life Governor. So, you can’t say that Pennsylvania is strictly Democrat. But we will see.

Tomorrow is going to be a long day.

One other thing… I looked over Real Clear Politics past polls. I check McCain and Obama polls from 2008. Clearly different than the ones there now. Obama was clearly ahead in them all with significant margins. Now, Real Clear has Obama up by a point or so in some and Romney up by a point in others. Makes me sick. I just want to vote. But it is clearly different than 2008.

JellyToast on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

My prediction is similar to Rove’s, but I think Romney will take PA & WI. NV goes blue.

conservative pilgrim on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

You choose Pa., but not Ohio? I’m fairly certain Romney will take Ohio and if he takes Pa., Ohio is definitely a done deal.

Norky on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Yes and I explained why upthread:

If we take PA, which I continue to contend is MORE likely to go our way then OH. I vehemently disagree with Allah that OH is an easier get then PA. Or that Romney can only win PA on a red wave. Bottom line all politics are local.

The fundamentals favor Romney much more in PA then OH.
Here are some reasons why I think PA will go to Romney:

1) Unemployment is 8.2% in PA (above national average)
2) EPA’s war on coal (At least a dozen coal plants shut down)
3) Obama’s comments on reinstating the AW ban during debate #2. NRA has been running wall to wall ads with that in PA (NRA is big in PA)
4) Obama’s war on the Catholic Church (Catholics make up a higher % of population then national average)
5) Polls show a dead heat with Obama at 48%. Incumbent at 48% with a few days to election will certainly lose.

Here are some reasons why I think OH will go to Obama:

1) Unemployment in OH is 6.9% (Below national average)
2) Bailout is still very popular there.
3) OH has been trending LEFT. (In 2004, it was more Democratic then national average)
4) OH loves losers (Browns, Bengals, Indians, Cavaliers)
5) Obama has carpet bombed the state for over 7 months with Romney=Hitler ads (Romney didn’t run ads till last 2 months)
6) Kasich remains deeply unpopular. (26% approval)
7) Unions are riding a victory in defeating Kasich’s union reform bill.

With that said Romney could still win OH, but it will be by a margin of 25,000 votes or so.

I think Romney will win the election. And PA will go RED. Likely losing OH however.

It’s my opinion. PA has been trending RED. OH has been trending blue.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:38 PM

God told me to tell you to go to the polls tomorrow, and vote for Romney and Allen. :)

ghostwriter on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

I like the idea that God endorses George Allen and Mitt Romney. And may I add Patrick Murray- How I would love to see Jim Moron go down in flames, particularly after his son got caught engaged in lecturing on vote fraud. I only hope I can keep a civil tongue when some Dem operative wants to hand me literature on their devil’s spawn of candidates.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:39 PM

That’s about where I am, too, in assumption. But CO just may go to Romney after viewing the huge support turnout he’s received there. It’s been a red state up until only recently after the infux of activists from CA and Chicago and Mexico ruined those values.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:26 PM

Same thing that happened here in NV. Used to be a solid RED state before the maggots from CA came and invaded it.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Several Democrats I spoke with said they had voted for Obama and are now voting for Romney. One particular one said she and her whole family cannot wait to vote for Romney. She said voting for Obama was the biggest mistake she ever made.

JellyToast on November 5, 2012 at 8:37 PM

What did these fools expect? Someone who had never done anything of substance or accomplished anything in his life was somehow qualified to be President? After 186 days in the Senate???

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Lol! It sounds like NFL playoff time and everybody’s trying to figure out how their team can make in as the Wild Card. Speculation is great and all, but to use the RCP avg. with as badly skewed as all these ridiculous D+11 to D+ 24 polls that are taken into the formula, makes it pointless. The fact is that Romney has the Big Mo and Obama has the Big Fraud! If the Repubs can overcome the blatant voter fraud from rigged machines that have showed up, by some amazing coincidence in all the battle ground states, as well as the Democrat’s Legions of Deceased, Multiple(Union Paid) and Illegal Alien Voters then they’ll win. So it’s all about turnout!
The fight against the Obama Enemy media continues: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 5, 2012 at 8:40 PM

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Walker won by a larger margin in the recall than he did in the general election. Voluntary payment into public union dues are down, property tax rates are down… Bills are getting paid, and most school systems are seeing a surplus in funds. Yes I do think the recalls have changed thinking in the state, people see the results. And they also realize that the employment situation is a result of Federal Regulations and Obama Care.

Not everyone may agree with all of what I said, but a majority do.

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:41 PM

My brother and sister both voted R/R via mail in. Im getting up to vote with both parents the second the polls open in the morning before work. My entire extended family is voting for Romney. Too bad I live in NJ where my vote hardly matters :(. I know at least 10 people that are switchin from Obama to Romney though. These things give me hope.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Krauthammer’s eeyoring right now.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

TROLLCOTT-a-MUNDO!

Even though I have more than a feeling that the singer would NEVER apply this to the current situation – I cannot think of a more appropriate tune – even MORE so if one substitutes “OVER YOU” for “OLDER TOO”

L A N D S L I D E

Katfish on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Krauthammer’s eeyoring right now.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Keep listening…

Alberta_Patriot on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

My brother and sister both voted R/R via mail in. Im getting up to vote with both parents the second the polls open in the morning before work. My entire extended family is voting for Romney. Too bad I live in NJ where my vote hardly matters :(. I know at least 10 people that are switchin from Obama to Romney though. These things give me hope.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

Is this your first vote?

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

CNN Political Ticker ‏@PoliticalTicker

Christie adviser denies report about Romney invitation – http://wp.me/p4HKM-16p7

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

The Fat B@stard wants to run in 2016, not 2020, so he’s trying to sink Romney. He had a diamond-crusted opportunity to bash Ogabe for slow post-hurricane response, and chose to photo op with him instead. He had a staunch supporter in me who planned to max out the state donation limit, but now he’s getting my vote and nothing else.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Most people don’t know who Christie is, Chucky. Don’t PANIC!!!

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Well that is some awesome news to hear. I hope it continues even after the election is over. Bless you guys.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Krauthammer’s eeyoring right now.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:42 PM

He was just speaking the truth about how the momentum was blunted. He still predicts a Romney victory and he sounds pretty confident.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 PM

*************** RUMOUR Alert *****************

Adviser to Chris Christie denying report…

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Christie is going to cling to obama until the very last second … just in case. Their love is a complicated and messy thing …

… All the sweet, green icing flowing down
Someone left the cake out in the rain
I don’t think that I can take it
’cause it took so long to bake it
And I’ll never have that recipe again …

Pork-Chop on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

No, voted in 2008 for Mcshame. My brother and sisters first vote though.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Maybe Obama would decide to run again in 2016 because he is allowed by our Constitution to run again as he is was only one term President…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Even the RINOs will become birthers in 2013. Obama’s forged BC, and his college records will come out in the next 12 months.

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Well that is some awesome news to hear. I hope it continues even after the election is over. Bless you guys.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 PM

Don’t worry. My first vote was for R/R as well. Ron Reagan.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Crist/ Christie 2016?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 PM

I have a good mind to delete Christie from my FB feed!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 PM

He was just speaking the truth about how the momentum was blunted. He still predicts a Romney victory and he sounds pretty confident.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I think he exaggerates the “positive” effect of Sandy on Obama’s campaign.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Bill O’Reilly: Is there anything Romney could have done…
Charles Krauthammer: Romney is playing it safe…..

Wrong answer, Charles. O’Reilly is lobbing a softball expecting you to say “Why Bill, he should have done your show!”

Marcus on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 PM

ghostwriter on November 5, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Well, if the BIG GUY told you to tell me to vote for R2 and Allen, that settles it :-)

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

My first vote was for George W. When I was 23.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

They vote at midnight. As goes Dixville, so goes the country.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

Allegedly.

Of course, if they vote Romney, expect never to hear about them again. Just like the Redskins loss.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

As requested, I simply googled “hold on now, I can’t hear myself.”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZxBX8sz3tO8&eurl=

Jvette on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

They vote at midnight. As goes Dixville, so goes the country.

[Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM]

They’re on a roll since 2000, but they’re somewhat of a mixed bag. They went big time for Dole in ’96 and Bush in ’92.

I’ll go with your what you say, though. Cutter will be up all night whispering to herself, “Remain calm, remain calm ….”

Dusty on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Remember the trollcott!

MidniteRambler on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Hold your nose and vote for the Republican — like we all did in ’08. (Don’t you wish we’d won that one?)

Then get active locally — focus on the candidates for 2014 EARLY, when your support in the primaries can make a real difference in our congressional and senate candidates. Support more libertarian candidates for all kinds of races from state legislature on up. That’s how we’ll really reform the GOP.

Mark Warner’s up for reelection in 2014, and if we fail to take the Senate tomorrow, your Virginia senate race in 2014 could be absolutely critical.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I think he exaggerates the “positive” effect of Sandy on Obama’s campaign.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 PM

Possibly, but Romney was ahead by 4-5 points before Sandy and now it’s tied. Of course, it could just be the natural tightening, but Sandy did help him somewhat, but not enough to really change much.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I’ll stick, 0 will win no more than 18 states, 45%, possibly 46% due to third party voters.

Bmore on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 PM

I like Pat Caddell. He is a patriot.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 PM

My first vote was for George W. When I was 23.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 PM

My favoritist vote was for W.

One of 537 that put him in the WH, officially.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 PM

Who will the Left worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

BillHillary Clinton 2016!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 PM

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

We need EVERY vote we can get here in VA, so please consider voting Romney/Ryan (and Allen). This is too important, and you’re in a state where your vote does matter.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 PM

Don’t worry. My first vote was for R/R as well. Ron Reagan.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

hmmm my first vote was for Bush in 92 i believe. lol it was the first election i was old enough to vote in

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 PM

:). I was so excited the first time I got to vote. Will always be my favorite. I just wish I could’ve voted for Mr. Reagan.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Who will the Left worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Hillary Clinton 2016!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 PM

The Butcher of Benghazi?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Heard from a friend of mine that her sister in NJ has been told she won’t get her electricity back for another 2 to 3 weeks. Most likely because of the unions threatening any electric workers who don’t belong to their gang, I mean union, who came to help. What is the Fat Man doing about this? Apparently nothing.

VorDaj on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Same thing that happened here in NV. Used to be a solid RED state before the maggots from CA came and invaded it.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:40 PM

The rot in NV politics didn’t just come from Nevada. During the boom years, starting in the late 80′s and nearly twenty years long, people came from all over the country to live in here.

Between that and the influx of Hispanics, both legal and illegal, Clark County has dominated NV politics for a few election cycles.
Things are somewhat different this year though with unemployment and so many people having left the state after the bust.

Still I am hoping for a Romney win.

Jvette on November 5, 2012 at 8:56 PM

The rot in NV politics didn’t just come from Nevada California. Oops, my bad. lol

Jvette on November 5, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Yep. The release of the October number made my day today.

Incidentally, Bill O’Reilly is a coward – he will NOT make a prediction on this race.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

I don’t think it’s cowardice, I think he’s too dumb to understand the intricacies of polling, sampling, D+ this and that, etc.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

You bring up a good point. Who in the hell do the Democrats have in the pipeline for’16?

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

The Butcher of Benghazi?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

The A-sshole of Abandonment.

VorDaj on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

im about to have a full fledged panic attack This election is going to kill me before I hit the age of 25. My heart is pounding through my chest as I type this. If Romney manages to lose I may end my existance.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Get yourself some Camomile Tea. It has anti-anxiety properties. Drink a ton of it. Oh, and we are not going to lose this. Did you vote?

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Tebow brings the snark

Tim Tebow ‏@TheTimmyTebow

I’m predicting Obama will take an early lead tomorrow… Until all the Republicans get off work. #RomneyRyan2012

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

LOL!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 8:58 PM

Heh, my first vote was for RMN

BeachBum on November 5, 2012 at 8:58 PM

The Butcher of Benghazi?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Would it really surprise you? Given the support for the current admin. that is hell bent on destroying our country? Not to mention the clintons have always been given a pass. They fall into a barrel of shyt, and come out smelling like a rose. sigh…

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 PM

http://twitchy.com/2012/11/05/tight-parking-spot-tight-schedule-romney-campaign-plane-rolls-up-to-columbus-rally/

stuckinwisconsin on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 PM

Steph, start panicking!

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 PM

*************** RUMOUR Alert *****************

Adviser to Chris Christie denying report that Christie turned down offer from Romney campaign to appear at Sunday rally – @PoliticalTicker

11 mins ago by editor
==========================

CNN Political Ticker ‏@PoliticalTicker

Christie adviser denies report about Romney invitation – http://wp.me/p4HKM-16p7

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:33 PM

That fat fu**er is a worthless piece of scum. He gives Zero his photo op, and then when the sh*t is hitting the fan in the hurricane area, Zero has Fatso’s boyhood idol Bruce Springsteen put a call into Fatso, which makes him “weep,” so he gives Zero another little campaign boost. Now this fake story is dropped by Zero’s campaign, and that worthless fat fu***er cannot muster an ounce of outrage. NOW is the time to say “Mr. President, you are a national disgrace. You are politicizing this tragedy, and using ME to do it. My state is suffering. My people are suffering. YOUR FEMA is nowhere to be seen. VOTE ROMNEY!!!”

But he won’t. Cuz he’s a fat fu**er piece of scum. His political career is over — unless he changes parties, which he probably will, cuz he’s a fat fu**er piece of scum.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 PM

My hunch, though, is that if he’s losing narrowly in the more competitive midwestern states, like Ohio, then it’s unlikely he’ll reverse that trend in the less competitive ones.

That’s what I’d been assuming for most of this race, but it occurred to me, especially in light of Romney’s decision to campaign there, that maybe this isn’t really the case. Because PA didn’t look like a tossup, Obama might be less well organized there. While I’m sure he’s run plenty of ads there, he’s probably done more work on Ohio. I’d imagine Obama’s coal problem is more severe in Pennsylvania as well. So the effect is that Pennsylvania becomes a bit softer of a target for Romney. Combine this with the lack of early voting, and you have the potential for a real upset, even without a national wave.

RINO in Name Only on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 PM

I’ve been a huge Christie fan for quite some time. Whenever Christie does decide to run for President, he will not have my support in the primary. Self-serving politician may be redundant, but it absolutely applies to him. I have no use for the guy. Rubio/Jindal/Ryan 2020.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Zero has Fatso’s boyhood idol Bruce Springsteen put a call into Fatso, which makes him “weep,
Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 PM

He did what? When was this?

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 PM

You bring up a good point. Who in the hell do the Democrats have in the pipeline for’16?

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 PM

Cuomo – if you ask Allahpundit, he’s already got an insurmountable lead.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 PM

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 PM

Lol if it’s Cuomo, oh dear…

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 PM

He did what? When was this?

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 PM

NJ Gov. Christie: Call from The Boss made me weep

Zero’s got his own Katrina in NY and NJ, and that fat worthless fu**er is “weeping” because Zero put a call through to him from his dream boat. WEEP FOR THE GO**AMN CITIZENS OF YOUR STATE WHO ARE STARVING AND FREEZING TO DEATH YOU FAT F**K!!!!!

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 PM

I’ve been a huge Christie fan for quite some time. Whenever Christie does decide to run for President, he will not have my support in the primary. Self-serving politician may be redundant, but it absolutely applies to him. I have no use for the guy. Rubio/Jindal/Ryan 2020.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Yep, Christie is dirt to me.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 PM

Has it been discussed yet that Larry Sabato has projected an Obama second term?

I. Can’t. Handle. The. Suspense. Any. Longer.

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 PM

I’m really dumbfounded as to why this is even close. It’s the media and a politically and economically illiterate electorate. If Romney wins, the tea party needs to keep him in check, but also set its sights on the media. under 30s favor socialism more than capitalism now … the rot has set in.

sigh. I was set on voting for Johnson, especially because the GOP tried so hard to get Johnson kicked off the state ballots (unconscionable). But I live in VA and Obama is up by 0.4%. Kaine is up by 3% ??!!!!??!! I’m praying for guidance on what to do…

Firefly_76 on November 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

If you are seriously asking for advice, mine is this: vote for Romney, then push, push, push to get your electors to keep him as far to the right as possible, then push, push, push for more conservative candidates each election for House, Senate (and POTUS in 2020). We must work to educate/convince our fellow citizens of the Indie persuasion to a more conservative view which will take time. This is a marathon to take back our country, not a sprint. Getting rid of Obama MUST be the first step. The SCOTUS has some chance of going more conservative with Romney; it has NO chance of that with Obama. A liberal SCOTUS will ruin us for a hundred years.

idalily on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Has it been discussed yet that Larry Sabato has projected an Obama second term?

I. Can’t. Handle. The. Suspense. Any. Longer.

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 PM

He also called it for Kerry in ’04. In addition, he admits that there’s so many caveats that he’s likely to be wrong.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Zero’s got his own Katrina in NY and NJ, and that fat worthless fu**er is “weeping” because Zero put a call through to him from his dream boat. WEEP FOR THE GO**AMN CITIZENS OF YOUR STATE WHO ARE STARVING AND FREEZING TO DEATH YOU FAT F**K!!!!!

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 PM

Thanks. I have no words and I sure hope Romney is watching the fatazz. I hope Corey Booker pummels this guy.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 9:29 PM

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 PM

And Ann Coulter just defended fatso on Hannity.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 PM

He also called it for Kerry in ’04. In addition, he admits that there’s so many caveats that he’s likely to be wrong.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Good to know. Sabato is excellent, but no one can beat the Redskins Rule (except in 2004, natch).

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 PM

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