Seven states: Electoral math made easy

posted at 7:28 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

What follows will be old hat to most readers, who’ve been wargaming paths to 270 for six months now, but I’m thinking it might be useful to casual readers who are stopping by tonight and tomorrow because their interest in the election is peaking. Simple question: Which states does Romney need to win to clinch the presidency? BuzzFeed tried to answer this earlier today with a flow chart, but it doesn’t give you any sense of whether individual battlegrounds are likely right now to break red or blue. So here’s how I’m approaching it. Right off, to simplify things, I’m assuming Romney wins North Carolina (15 EVs) and Obama wins Nevada (6). Neither one is a lock but they seem to be the surest bets among swing states. Needless to say, if you live in either of those states (or any other state), you should hustle on down to the polls tomorrow and vote anyway. An upset for O in NC would all but guarantee that he wins the election, and low GOP turnout in Nevada would imperil Dean Heller, whom the party desperately needs to win to have a shot at retaking the Senate. No excuses. Vote, vote, vote.

If you assume NC and NV break red and blue, respectively, then the election starts with Obama at 207 EVs and Romney at 206, with seven states effectively left to decide things. Which brings us to…

The prerequisites: Florida (29), Virginia (13)

Romney leads by 1.5 points in the RCP average in Florida, his best showing in any battleground state. He’s led there for weeks and is widely expected to take the state. He’d better: 29 EVs would be next to impossible to replace. Virginia is more tenuous, with Obama actually holding a very slight lead in the poll of polls right now. Romney could replace those 13 EVs by winning one or more states listed below, but he’s led in multiple polls in Virginia over the past month and seems to be favored there by most analysts. If he loses a squeaker to O, there’d be little margin for error with the remaining five states and it’d likely augur a bad, bad trend for the evening. The good news is that Obama is off his 2008 pace in early voting and Romney aides feel confident that the combo of coal interests plus military voters will nudge him over the line.

If Romney wins both prerequisites, he’s at 248 and within striking distance of the White House. He then needs 22 electoral votes from any combination of these five:

The deciders: Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4)

Two obvious possibilities here.

Path One: Ohio + any other state. Even little New Hampshire would be enough to hand Romney the presidency if he locks down the Buckeye state and nothing else. (270-268!) The bad news is that Romney hasn’t led in a state poll in NH for nearly two weeks. The good news is that there’s no early voting there, so if you expect a nationwide trend of Republicans swamping Democrats at the polls tomorrow, then things look promising. In Ohio, Romney hasn’t led in any state poll since October 10 with the lone exception of Rasmussen, which had him up two points last week. Democratic early voting appears to be down, though, and Republicans traditionally outperform their national numbers slightly in Ohio. Tomorrow will be the ultimate test of Obama’s GOTV machine: Ohio Republicans know that the election will likely turn on their turnout, so it’s up to Team O to somehow blunt their numbers by dragging just enough half-hearted, disillusioned Hopenchange fans to the polls. Tall order.

Path Two: Wisconsin + Colorado + any other state. This is trickier, obviously, not only because it involves winning more states but because Romney actually trails by a wider margin in the Wisconsin RCP average than in Ohio. Colorado is within two points, though, and the GOP leads in early voting there(!). If CO comes through and Ryan/Walker magic leads to an upset in WI, then Romney can ignore Ohio and hope for Iowa to come through and win him the election. He trails there by less than 2.5 points and three different polls taken over the last two weeks or so have had him ahead by a point. If a red wave breaks tomorrow, it’ll probably carry Iowa with it.

So, what happens if Romney locks up the prerequisites in Florida and Virginia and then wins Colorado, say — but ends up losing narrowly in both Ohio and Wisconsin? Now he’s stuck at 257 and not even winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will get him to 270. Either he needs a huge upset in Nevada, which is unlikely if OH and WI are trending blue, or he needs…

The longshots: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10).

Actually, neither PA nor MI is a true longshot. Romney’s closer to Obama in the RCP average for each state (3.8 points in both Pennsylvania and Michigan) than he is in Wisconsin (4.2 points). He trails a bit more distantly in Minnesota (5.2 points), but even there, some polls have him either slightly ahead or within three. I’m listing these states here because they’re reliably blue in presidential elections and because the GOP has spent less time and money contesting them than it has in, say, Wisconsin. But if Romney runs into problems in the “decider” states, or if Virginia somehow falls through and he needs to find 13 EVs somewhere, obviously these will be crucially important. My hunch, though, is that if he’s losing narrowly in the more competitive midwestern states, like Ohio, then it’s unlikely he’ll reverse that trend in the less competitive ones. If any of the “longshot” states are turning red, it’s probably because there’s a huge Republican wave and Romney’s cruising to a landslide win. Here’s hoping.

***

If all of the above is too complicated, here’s a much simpler way to understand Romney’s task. Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory. If he doesn’t, then he’d have to win every other battleground state — Nevada included — or else.

Via Christian Heinze of GOP12, here’s the Rove map.


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Because it was convenient… and I didn’t want to take any chances on missing out, like an accident, or something. I felt relieved after I did it.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Fair enough. I’m itching to get to the polls tommorrow. Virginia has absentee voting but not early voting.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

True, but how likely is Pennsylvania to go Republican?

If it does, IMO it would mean that Romney will run the tables nationally.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Yes. That’s what I think as well. Something wonderful. :)

CitizenEgg on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Romney 354; Obama 184. Obama got cocky and thought he could survive a winter war in Russia. Wargames over.

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

It’s going to be a nail biter. It would be interesting to see whose polling model is on the money.

lexhamfox on November 5, 2012 at 7:58 PM

There must be a lot of drinking going on with you folks, lol!

Releasing internals, going back for desperate campaigning on election day. Yep, those are the signs of a winner!

I TOLD YOU SO

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Should I be scared?????

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

It was 45 years ago. Didn’t look like the Caddyshack gopher.

In fact, it looked kinda like a chipmunk.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:58 PM

buck up people

A few more hours is nothing to withstand.
I’ve known it for a while. This baby is landslide trouncing worthy.

I’ve done my level best, even with strangers. I also note that the down ticket
is often more important. Twist’em, their dumbass arms.
Once you see the doubt of their realization, offer to bring them to the polls
to ‘make the right choice for the only time in their lives’.

Maybe a little musical interlude, shall we?
Alan Parsons

and this for late Tuesday evening.
Gary Moore
because the blues is all about winning and the sweet taste of winning. GM dispensing a little SRV.
There is a Good Lord. God bless both of their amazing souls. And all of you.

Sing it sister…

mickytx on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Haven’t seen anything on HA about CBS News hiding the Obama interview about Benghazi. Did I miss it?

Mark1971 on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Now this is a full hangar.

OHIO

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

TROLLCOT, PEOPLE!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

MSNBC just called Belgium for Obama.

nitzsche on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I have had my empty chair out for months – beautifully situated in the center of my rural and well cared for LARGE lawn and

My
“I love my Country – it’s the Government I’m afraid of” magnetic bumper sticker I found, in all places BWI Airport.

I have talked to fellow airplane passengers, my family (1/2 and 1/2) and my friends.

Our office Manager was Obama Central last election. I haven’t hear her utter is name in over 2 years.

I hope, and thank you Hot Air. I have have been an avid reader for over 4 years now and I can’t tell you how much it has helped me realize I am far from alone.

I hope, I really hope we can pull this off. The dread creeps in as I think we could fail.

Mrs. Romney, I sure hope you’re right, he won’t fail. I got a bottle of Korbel Extra Dry in the chilla.

seesalrun2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Fair enough. I’m itching to get to the polls tommorrow. Virginia has absentee voting but not early voting.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I once lived in a state that had all absentee voting. I liked it. It gave me time to sit down and research so I can cast an informed vote for or against propositions, as well as research judges.

I think I’m going to request absentee voting again.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

My final predictions:

Romney 51% – Obama 47% (roughly 1% each for Johnson and Stein)

Romney: 296 EV (or 316 w/ PA)
Obama: 242 EV (or 222 w/out PA)

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 8:00 PM

By the time tomorrow night is over gumbyandpokey, you will be a full fledged alcoholic.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:00 PM

RCP averages oversample Democrats by a range of 11 points (D+5 when the current party identification is R+6) to 17 points. They are useless and any analysis based on them is a waste of time.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Tebow brings the snark

Tim Tebow ‏@TheTimmyTebow

I’m predicting Obama will take an early lead tomorrow… Until all the Republicans get off work. #RomneyRyan2012

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

BTW I live in a condo where I’m skirting the rules to even have a sign up. I’m waiting to get the fine from the board at which time I will write “Bite Me” across their letter and send it back to them. If they want to make this into a First Amendment lawsuit, I’m willing to go there.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Do not get there. It’s a legal fight you will lose. HOA rules trump First Amendment due to the fact that it is their private property, not yours.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

In the words of Flounder… This is gonna be Great!

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I once lived in a state that had all absentee voting.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

We call that Oregon.

Rife with voter fraud.

But states are allowed to choose their electors in the way they see fit.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

It’ll be Romney by a landslide. Remember how O’s campaign talked about how it was going to win this election before Election Day with its massive early voting turnout?

Well, that didn’t happen. And now they are hyping their “ground game” turnout machine. Something tells me it isn’t going to show up.

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I suppose you’re going to deny this is your front yard too? Don’t play us as fools.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/upload/images/humor/Obama_yard.jpg

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

seesalrun2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:59 PM

HA is a great place with really good people.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Stinks in here, stinks like troll, please ignore.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I achieved goal last October! I’ve maintained a year. Now I just need to maintain the loss for another forty years or so. Sad thing is I’ve lost my drug of choice! Can’t shove food in my face to drown out my Obama anxiety! Hopefully, tomorrow he will start to fade gracefully into the sunset and avoid the public eye forever. Who believes that will happen? He’s going to hang around and irritate us for another thirty years or so.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Romney 272
Obama- gone.

profitsbeard on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Anybody posted these numbers yet.. Rasmussen party affiliation October poll numbers prior to the lat 2 elections and this year’s results.

Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ?????

KCB on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Yep. The release of the October number made my day today.

Incidentally, Bill O’Reilly is a coward – he will NOT make a prediction on this race.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

RCP averages oversample Democrats by a range of 11 points (D+5 when the current party identification is R+6) to 17 points. They are useless and any analysis based on them is a waste of time.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Agreed. If that’s the case, Mitt will win in a landslide.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

ugh i hate being censored. i dont even know what i said to be censored. n/m im sorry to say the closer we get to election day the more nervous i get. my hubby says hes gonna be standing on the corner at 7 am tomorow with our fire obama sign and hes gonna camp out there all day except for when he goes to vote himself. the fun part is we live literally behind the polling place so he measured it out and the corner is exactly 105 feet from the polling entrance :) so everyone will see him standing there when they go to vote !

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I voted early here in Oregon. Got my ballot off the same day I received it :).

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

True, but how likely is Pennsylvania to go Republican?

If it does, IMO it would mean that Romney will run the tables nationally.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Yes. That’s what I think as well. Something wonderful. :)

CitizenEgg on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I don’t think Pennsylvania is likely to go GOP.

It will be close and Romney may win, but he may not. I had thought Romney had more of an advantage than what AllahPundit posted so its not good news if its this close.

If I had to guess I would say Romney had a slight advantage given the polls are usually slanted Democratic.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

If this was going to be a D+anything race, we’d be hearing about vulnerable GOP House seats, and Granny McBotox would be shining up her broom. We’re not. The dems are bracing themselves for even more losses in the House, not to mention the Senate. That sounds like a Republican wave election.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

im about to have a full fledged panic attack This election is going to kill me before I hit the age of 25. My heart is pounding through my chest as I type this. If Romney manages to lose I may end my existance.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Can anyone find for me that clip of from ’2016′ where Obama is trying to remember the cost of Obamacare but repeatedly fails, and then pretends like the crowd is distracting him?

Thanks!

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Just search YouTube for these variations:

“Obama without teleprompter”

“Obama can’t speak”

and that’ll set you on a landing of a variety of videos of his bumbling, inane and illiterate moments when he doesn’t have a prepared teleprompter-hosted series of words to read.

Are you referring to the TownHall appearance from last election where he lapsed into *stoned* when trying to talk about “a breathalyser”?

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I now work for Weight Watchers on Saturday mornings. Good way to keep the weight off. If you don’t weigh in at goal, you get canned.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Great approach if you like public shame as a weight loss strategy.

I’m not being critical, just not my style. Personally, I just got tired of being out-of-shape and did something about it through diet and exercise. I know! Few believe it possible to lose weight without a “support system” but I did it. For me, it was all about setting goals. First, weight loss goals, then stuff more ambitious. I ran the Army Ten-miler in DC two weekends ago. Why? Because my fitness goals needed a boost and training to run ten miles was a no-brainer. Ended up running a decent time coming in mid-range for both my age group and overall results.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:05 PM

I voted early here in Oregon. Got my ballot off the same day I received it :).

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Pointless. Every bum on Burnside has already voted several times apiece.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:05 PM

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I suppose you’re going to deny this is your front yard too? Don’t play us as fools.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/upload/images/humor/Obama_yard.jpg

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Wow, that’s one hell of an evil crop circle for aliens to leave in someones yard… o_O

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Romney just held a massive rally in Columbus, OH (over 13k people including those who were turned away) where he made a dramatic entrance from his jet. Obama had a rally today in OH and couldn’t even muster 15k people with Jay- Z and Bruce Springsteen performing!

We are taking America back tomorrow!

stuckinwisconsin on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

im about to have a full fledged panic attack This election is going to kill me before I hit the age of 25. My heart is pounding through my chest as I type this. If Romney manages to lose I may end my existance.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Oh shut up and sit down Nancy Boy…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

If we take PA, which I continue to contend is MORE likely to go our way then OH. I vehemently disagree with Allah that OH is an easier get then PA. Or that Romney can only win PA on a red wave. Bottom line all politics are local.

The fundamentals favor Romney much more in PA then OH.

Here are some reasons why I think PA will go to Romney:

1) Unemployment is 8.2% in PA (above national average)
2) EPA’s war on coal (At least a dozen coal plants shut down)
3) Obama’s comments on reinstating the AW ban during debate #2. NRA has been running wall to wall ads with that in PA (NRA is big in PA)
4) Obama’s war on the Catholic Church (Catholics make up a higher % of population then national average)
5) Polls show a dead heat with Obama at 48%. Incumbent at 48% with a few days to election will certainly lose.

Here are some reasons why I think OH will go to Obama:

1) Unemployment in OH is 6.9% (Below national average)
2) Bailout is still very popular there.
3) OH has been trending LEFT. (In 2004, it was more Democratic then national average)
4) OH loves losers (Browns, Bengals, Indians, Cavaliers)
5) Obama has carpet bombed the state for over 7 months with Romney=Hitler ads (Romney didn’t run ads till last 2 months)
6) Kasich remains deeply unpopular. (26% approval)
7) Unions are riding a victory in defeating Kasich’s union reform bill.

With that said Romney could still win OH, but it will be by a margin of 25,000 votes or so.

I think Romney will win the election. And PA will go RED. Likely losing OH however.

(Bumped)

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Gophergirl – I get on the treadmill and PRAY! Left hubby in Michigan to vote for Romney,I’mIhere in Illinois to do the same (hopeless as it may be).

usedtobeinmich on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Okay that is hilarious

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Lol true, true. I hate living in a state where my vote doesn’t really count. Now if I still lived in my home state of Penn…

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Pennsylvania is just as likely to go for Romney as WI or OH. A nightmare would be to lose them all by a fraction.

But I don’t see that happening with the high enthusiasm for Republicans and alot of “meh” from Obama’s core groups.

forest on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

RCP averages oversample Democrats by a range of 11 points (D+5 when the current party identification is R+6) to 17 points. They are useless and any analysis based on them is a waste of time.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

As I said before and will repeat again, party registration means diddly squat in a year when only one party has meaningful primaries. Hundreds of thousands people shift their affiliation to vote in closed-primary states, often with malicious intent. My right crystal ball says D+2 – everything above that is a God-given gift.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Hope that Team Romney and the RNC strikes back quickly on this tonight and tomorrow, since we can’t afford a single vote to stay at home.

TXUS on November 5, 2012 at 7:45 PM

A friend from Alabama was visiting here in Texas, but she left early this morning because she didn’t want to miss the chance to vote. Anyone you talk to has that urgent tone about voting this year.

jazzuscounty on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

And,…………………..

Taking the Hill
The eight races the military-industrial complex is watching.
Nov 5 2012
***********

National security issues generally don’t play a big role in congressional races.

But Pentagon spending represents billions of dollars — and that translates to jobs.

In states like Virginia and Maine, that means that defense is a local economic issue that can drive voters and affect the outcome of contests. And even if candidates themselves don’t address national security, the departure of the politician they are vying to replace can have repercussions on Capitol Hill. Changes to the make-up of the Senate and House armed services committees could frame the way the Hill grapples with sequester, war planning, and the speed at which the United States leaves Afghanistan. Just as the elections will shake up foreign policy no matter who wins, they’re likely to do the same for defense. Here are 8 races to watch:
(More…)
============

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/11/05/taking_the_hill

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Oh shut up and sit down Nancy Boy…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

That’s gonna’ leave a mark.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 8:08 PM

If Romney manages to lose I may end my existance.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Barky may do it for you. See: Bill Ayers

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Haysoos Marimba, relax. Have a little faith that the grifters will be overcome by the producers.

If not then society collapses soon after the election, the Cubans invade, and Red Dawn fantasies will finally be realized; I haven’t been collecting University of Michigan clothing for my health, you know.

It’s a win-win.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 8:08 PM

i would love for mitt to win over 300 EVs…if barry wins the leftist press will be chortling with glee…a new America will soon burst forth from barry’s loins…i can hear Brain Williams say that now

but, seriously, any major state barry loses there will be various recounts. We will not know (unless mitts gets 5 percent margins) until December..who one.

the Left has too much riding on this…they have a country to transform

r keller on November 5, 2012 at 8:09 PM

If Romney manages to lose I may end my existance.

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Al’s Take On Misfortune

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 8:09 PM

mmm we researched our down ticket and what do ya know we found 3 hold over judges from the infidel charlie crist still in office so we ran out and convinced all of our friends and family to vote them out so Gov. Scott will be able to replace them with more conservative choices. we also researched our soil and conservation candidates to make sure we had the most conservative choices available and we changed quite a few minds. hubby and i have been working hard to inform others so im praying it pays off tomorow. but like i said the closer we get the more my nerves get to me ive had the shakes all day . cant wait for this to be over.

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:09 PM

As I said before and will repeat again, party registration means diddly squat in a year when only one party has meaningful primaries. Hundreds of thousands people shift their affiliation to vote in closed-primary states, often with malicious intent. My right crystal ball says D+2 – everything above that is a God-given gift.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Those party affiliation numbers come from way after the primaries over the phone, and they are a way to measure the difference from 2008. Not exact, yes. But hell of a difference, wouldn’t you say?

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 8:10 PM

As I said before and will repeat again, party registration means diddly squat in a year when only one party has meaningful primaries. Hundreds of thousands people shift their affiliation to vote in closed-primary states, often with malicious intent. My right crystal ball says D+2 – everything above that is a God-given gift.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

That isn’t party registration, it’s party identification. Meaningful primaries have no impact on the latter. If Dem enthusiasm was up and GOP down, you’d see a gap favoring the Dems. And, if Ras is right that the electorate is R +6 then practically every poll is very, very wrong.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I followed the results for the 2004 election on Free Republic. What a joyous night! Then I became an avid HotAir reader after Ed closed up shop at Captain’s Quarters. I followed the awful results for 2008 here, and it was a miserable night.

So out of superstition, I’ll stick with Free Republic tomorrow and come back here if things start looking really good.

ardenenoch on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Trollcott! Just came by to say trollcott.

Trollcott!

Keep Calm
And
Finish Him

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Romney just held a massive rally in Columbus, OH (over 13k people including those who were turned away) where he made a dramatic entrance from his jet. Obama had a rally today in OH and couldn’t even muster 15k people with Jay- Z and Bruce Springsteen performing!

We are taking America back tomorrow!

stuckinwisconsin on November 5, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Whaaaaaaaa? The rat-eared wonder, along with the rest of SEAL team Six, didn’t arrive by dropping down from a black helicopter?

Seriously, Romney’s rally today at George Mason University had to be re-located due to crowds and they still turned people away. You saying the same thing happened in Ohio?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Those are holdovers from Chiles, not Crist.

Those three were instrumental in trying to steal the election for Gore.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Hmmmm… Wouldnt I have to hold it by the barrel to do that?

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Why? Are Democrats turning into zombies tomorrow night? Zombies who are attracted to Romney signs? In which case, OK, thanks for the warning: home security systems.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

home security systems do not stop rocks thru your windows or smashed in car windows. Expense pains in the A$$, either under the deductible or too small to chance insurance going up.

Many Liberals will go zombie tomorrow night, promising riots and worse.

IowaWoman on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Hope that Team Romney and the RNC strikes back quickly on this tonight and tomorrow, since we can’t afford a single vote to stay at home.

TXUS on November 5, 2012 at 7:45 PM

A friend from Alabama was visiting here in Texas, but she left early this morning because she didn’t want to miss the chance to vote. Anyone you talk to has that urgent tone about voting this year.

jazzuscounty on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Yep – I don’t know one Republican that isn’t making voting their top priority tomorrow.

I know a few Democrats that aren’t even voting.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

IF anyone cares this is my prediction:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney wins PA, FL, VA, NC, IA
Romney loses: CO, OH, NH, NV

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

i would love for mitt to win over 300 EVs…if barry wins the leftist press will be chortling with glee…a new America will soon burst forth from barry’s loins…i can hear Brain Williams say that now…

r keller on November 5, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Ewwww… that image reminded me of something like The Omen. Ugh.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:12 PM

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

TROLLCOT!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Obama is bad enough. Geithner, Napolitano, Panetta, Holder, Salazar, Sebelius….and that little twit of a press secretary. I’m starting to hyper ventilate here, I want these people the HELL OUT OF WASHINGTON!

Sorry, off topic…I don’t think I’m going to be able to sleep tonight.

UpTheCreek on November 5, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I know a few Democrats that aren’t even voting.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

I know several democrats that are voting for Romney. One of them black.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Apparently, Romney and Obama are both doing interviews with Chris Berman at halftime tonight??

Is this an Onion parody, or… ?

Could this be the November Surprise to beat all November Surprises?

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 8:14 PM

It’s driving me crazy that it is this close. Considering how much Obama has screwed up. But eh, as long as RR wins I’ll be happy.

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Public shame? The weigh-ins are private. I’ll just say going from where I was, to where I am now, I’ll be eternally grateful for the program.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

The campaign appearances are the only thing that make me nervous right now. Romney just needs to win Ohio and Colorado, and he’s got 275 EV’s (if you give him Fla, NC, and Va.) Why, then, would he not spend as much time in Ohio as Obama, if not more? Ohio is much more likely to go Republican than Pennsylvania.

I’m not trying to be an eeyore, I just don’t get it.

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

A friend from Alabama was visiting here in Texas, but she left early this morning because she didn’t want to miss the chance to vote. Anyone you talk to has that urgent tone about voting this year.

jazzuscounty on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Yep. My personal views are well known on HA but in talking to less political folk, I can’t tell you the number of times I’ve heard “I don’t know what is going to happen if Obama gets a second term.” This is what is driving the election.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

60/40 or bust

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

The campaign appearances are the only thing that make me nervous right now. Romney just needs to win Ohio and Colorado, and he’s got 275 EV’s (if you give him Fla, NC, and Va.) Why, then, would he not spend as much time in Ohio as Obama, if not more? Ohio is much more likely to go Republican than Pennsylvania.

I’m not trying to be an eeyore, I just don’t get it.

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I’m sure he has proxies there.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Just search YouTube for these variations:

“Obama without teleprompter”

“Obama can’t speak”

and that’ll set you on a landing of a variety of videos of his bumbling, inane and illiterate moments when he doesn’t have a prepared teleprompter-hosted series of words to read.

Are you referring to the TownHall appearance from last election where he lapsed into *stoned* when trying to talk about “a breathalyser”?

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I have tried every combination of phrases I can think of to narrow down the results, and I still can’t find it.

It’s a video clip of Obama at a townhall and he is trying to talk about the ten-year cost of Obamacare but he can’t remember the numbers. He keeps repeating “the analysts estimate that the cost of the bill over ten years is– the cost of the bill over ten years is–.” Then, evidently because can’t remember the cost of the bill, he starts pretending the crowd is cheering him and starts doing the “thank you, I love you too” routine. But the crowd is just silent and staring at him. Its a very powerful clip, and for the life of me I cannot find it on any search engine.

Somebody help!

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Those are holdovers from Chiles, not Crist.

Those three were instrumental in trying to steal the election for Gore.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

you following duval county politics now? lol the circuit court judges here ( 3 of them ) were apointed by Crist ir atleast thats the info we got off the web sites hubby spent 5 hours pouring over . our particular down ticket only deals with local politics we dont even get to see the tickets for the southern half of the state . but my hubby did post a sample ballot pic to wokv news if ya want to look at it

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

IF anyone cares this is my prediction:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney wins PA, FL, VA, NC, IA
Romney loses: CO, OH, NH, NV

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Hey Pink. How will Romney not win CO, NH and OH if he wins PA? I think you can slide PA into Romney loses, and CO, NH, and OH into Romney wins.

That is my prediction: Romney 51.5% – 295 electoral votes. Senate 51 Republicans.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

60/40 or bust

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

In a sane country.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Public shame? The weigh-ins are private. I’ll just say going from where I was, to where I am now, I’ll be eternally grateful for the program.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Hey, whatever works. The program you used (and obviously worked for you) would not work for me.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

All of you except those who should not be named are remarkable, intelligent, good natured and very well spoken. And we share the same goals. #1 right now is winning this Election.

It’s a privilege to be able to participate. And whatever happens

“we will endure”

seesalrun2 on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have become the quintessential Americans like George Patton and Joe DiMaggio. They have attack the usurping tyrant boldly on all fronts and at all times and at this they did not flag nor fail. They never succumbed to the siren call of the regime’s propaganda ministers that permeated the television waves. They did not bargain with the tyrant and his propaganda ministers and gutter rats. They did not try to reason with them as the tyrant and his gaggle of lying lackeys and deranged dingbats granted no quarter for them and if they could, they would have destroyed them and their families and all of America without remorse. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan followed the tyrant Hussein Louie Benito Hugo Isuzu Obama to the inmost recesses of his mind and made him fear and dread the very sight and sound of them. Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan never let up and they made the Child Emperor’s fear of them permeate his thoughts from when he first rose in the morning until he retired at night, where he was allowed only a brief respite in between his nightmares as his day of reckoning approached. In one more day, they will make the tyrant howl.

VorDaj on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

IF anyone cares this is my prediction:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney wins PA, FL, VA, NC, IA
Romney loses: CO, OH, NH, NV

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

Interesting. That’s close to my own, though instead of PA I think it’s more likely Mitt carries WI and CO. I’m not optimistic about OH at this point, unless there is a red wave coming up. VA is way too close for comfort, too.

We’ll know fairly early how the night is going for Romney. If NC is a nail biter, that’s probably a bad sign and doesn’t bode well for VA or NH, to say nothing of OH.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:17 PM

You sure you ain’t talkin’ about Pariente, Quince and Lewis?

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Hah either way my hearts pounding uncontrollably right now. Obama with 4 more years = America is done

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Kos has published his final predictions. He expects that Obama will win the popular vote by a 3.5% margin, and 332 electoral votes. Romney wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I expect that the Kos Kidz will cry that the Republicans stole the election through fraud — or something like that.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

And all these delusional low IQ fools can sleep tight tonight dreaming of a great victory tomorrow. Then tomorrow night around 11:30 PM the reality of utter defeat will destroy their delusional world when Romney is declared the 45th elected President of the United States…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

I suppose you’re going to deny this is your front yard too? Don’t play us as fools.

http://www.burntorangereport.com/upload/images/humor/Obama_yard.jpg

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Bishop:

Well,must be nice to get a waiver from the EPA!:)

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Hah either way my hearts pounding uncontrollably right now. Obama with 4 more years = America is done

BrianVII on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Thanks for the update.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Don’t Forget that We better also make a dent in the Senate Race…

Or ObamaCare is still a problem

WhoU4 on November 5, 2012 at 8:20 PM

ok here is the link for the ballot we get to vote with tomorow . we spent hours trying to find info on all these guys , unfortunately there arent any really good web sites that we have been able to find that discuss local politics for our area. so it made it a major pita

http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=482341578454559&set=o.241883435108&type=1&theater

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:20 PM

tomorrow night around 11:30 PM the reality of utter defeat will destroy their delusional world when Romney is declared the 45th elected President of the United States…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Who will the Left worship on Wednesday?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

IF anyone cares this is my prediction:

Romney: 275
Obama: 263

Romney wins PA, FL, VA, NC, IA
Romney loses: CO, OH, NH, NV

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

You choose Pa., but not Ohio? I’m fairly certain Romney will take Ohio and if he takes Pa., Ohio is definitely a done deal.

Norky on November 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Rove is right; WI will go Romney. PA has all the makings of a major upset.

runner on November 5, 2012 at 8:22 PM

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Oh! You got a gob of district judges up for retention. I got none.

But git ridda them Supreme bastards.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

You sure you ain’t talkin’ about Pariente, Quince and Lewis?

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:18 PM

they are on the ballot, yes they are lol. now i am a bit confused and ill be honest i am not able to remember a lot of what he said to me about it all but i know he told me there were 3 names on the ballot that had to go because they were specifically appointed by that lunatic Crist. ( i had already taken all my meds and was pretty much half out of it during the conversation) if i am wrong i am sorry but i am pretty sure somewhere on that ticket are some Crist appointees that he was pretty peeved about

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

RCP averages oversample Democrats by a range of 11 points (D+5 when the current party identification is R+6) to 17 points. They are useless and any analysis based on them is a waste of time.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:01 PM

As I said before and will repeat again, party registration means diddly squat in a year when only one party has meaningful primaries. Hundreds of thousands people shift their affiliation to vote in closed-primary states, often with malicious intent. My right crystal ball says D+2 – everything above that is a God-given gift.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 8:07 PM

The R+6 to which I referred is party identification, not party registration.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Why? Are Democrats turning into zombies tomorrow night? Zombies who are attracted to Romney signs? In which case, OK, thanks for the warning: home security systems.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

home security systems do not stop rocks thru your windows or smashed in car windows. Expense pains in the A$$, either under the deductible or too small to chance insurance going up.

Many Liberals will go zombie tomorrow night, promising riots and worse.

IowaWoman on November 5, 2012 at 8:11 PM

If one is holed up inside a residence and “just trying to wait it out” or such, then, well, your scenario fits but there’s this thing called “security” that includes stopping threats before they get to your windows, rocks or not.

I understand your point, though, especially for those in urban locations: no land around your structure to be used for defense, no garages to lockup the autos…rioters running amok, not good.

People nationwide, though, are fed up with the threats of violence and the “rioting” retort by the Left when they don’t get their way. Just fed up with it. I doubt there are so many nowadays who will tolerate more of it.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Oh! You got a gob of district judges up for retention. I got none.

But git ridda them Supreme bastards.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

yep and the pic clearly shows exactly how we are planning to vote lol

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:24 PM

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Crist wasn’t bad until he got beat by Marco. Bitter man after that.

But I am voting for one ‘rat tomorrow.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Ohio is much more likely to go Republican than Pennsylvania.

I’m not trying to be an eeyore, I just don’t get it.

youknowit on November 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

The argument is that the Obama campaign spent a fortune (something like $100 million) over the summer on a massive wave of attack ads painting Romney as everything evil and ugly — especially in Ohio. (This was when Romney had exhausted his primary campaign funds and couldn’t use his general campaign funds until the convention — so he couldn’t answer the attacks effectively at the time.)

If those attacks are worth just a 3% kick in the Ohio vote, then Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota are just as gettable as Ohio.

And Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Minnesota were *not* subjected to the waves of Romney attacks over the summer.

No idea how accurate this line of reasoning is — we’ll all know tomorrow night — but that’s the reasoning.

ClintACK on November 5, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Defeating ANY incumbent president is serious, difficult and expensive business, especially one coddled and protected by the MSM.

By this measure, Romney has run a superb campaign.

If I had to choose who holds better cards for tomorrow, it’s Romney.

For those posting tomorrow, when you discuss relative crowds, please tell us your State and whether your area is a swing district, predominately GOP or Dem etc. Give us context, please.

matthew8787 on November 5, 2012 at 8:26 PM

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