Seven states: Electoral math made easy

posted at 7:28 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

What follows will be old hat to most readers, who’ve been wargaming paths to 270 for six months now, but I’m thinking it might be useful to casual readers who are stopping by tonight and tomorrow because their interest in the election is peaking. Simple question: Which states does Romney need to win to clinch the presidency? BuzzFeed tried to answer this earlier today with a flow chart, but it doesn’t give you any sense of whether individual battlegrounds are likely right now to break red or blue. So here’s how I’m approaching it. Right off, to simplify things, I’m assuming Romney wins North Carolina (15 EVs) and Obama wins Nevada (6). Neither one is a lock but they seem to be the surest bets among swing states. Needless to say, if you live in either of those states (or any other state), you should hustle on down to the polls tomorrow and vote anyway. An upset for O in NC would all but guarantee that he wins the election, and low GOP turnout in Nevada would imperil Dean Heller, whom the party desperately needs to win to have a shot at retaking the Senate. No excuses. Vote, vote, vote.

If you assume NC and NV break red and blue, respectively, then the election starts with Obama at 207 EVs and Romney at 206, with seven states effectively left to decide things. Which brings us to…

The prerequisites: Florida (29), Virginia (13)

Romney leads by 1.5 points in the RCP average in Florida, his best showing in any battleground state. He’s led there for weeks and is widely expected to take the state. He’d better: 29 EVs would be next to impossible to replace. Virginia is more tenuous, with Obama actually holding a very slight lead in the poll of polls right now. Romney could replace those 13 EVs by winning one or more states listed below, but he’s led in multiple polls in Virginia over the past month and seems to be favored there by most analysts. If he loses a squeaker to O, there’d be little margin for error with the remaining five states and it’d likely augur a bad, bad trend for the evening. The good news is that Obama is off his 2008 pace in early voting and Romney aides feel confident that the combo of coal interests plus military voters will nudge him over the line.

If Romney wins both prerequisites, he’s at 248 and within striking distance of the White House. He then needs 22 electoral votes from any combination of these five:

The deciders: Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), Colorado (9), Iowa (6), New Hampshire (4)

Two obvious possibilities here.

Path One: Ohio + any other state. Even little New Hampshire would be enough to hand Romney the presidency if he locks down the Buckeye state and nothing else. (270-268!) The bad news is that Romney hasn’t led in a state poll in NH for nearly two weeks. The good news is that there’s no early voting there, so if you expect a nationwide trend of Republicans swamping Democrats at the polls tomorrow, then things look promising. In Ohio, Romney hasn’t led in any state poll since October 10 with the lone exception of Rasmussen, which had him up two points last week. Democratic early voting appears to be down, though, and Republicans traditionally outperform their national numbers slightly in Ohio. Tomorrow will be the ultimate test of Obama’s GOTV machine: Ohio Republicans know that the election will likely turn on their turnout, so it’s up to Team O to somehow blunt their numbers by dragging just enough half-hearted, disillusioned Hopenchange fans to the polls. Tall order.

Path Two: Wisconsin + Colorado + any other state. This is trickier, obviously, not only because it involves winning more states but because Romney actually trails by a wider margin in the Wisconsin RCP average than in Ohio. Colorado is within two points, though, and the GOP leads in early voting there(!). If CO comes through and Ryan/Walker magic leads to an upset in WI, then Romney can ignore Ohio and hope for Iowa to come through and win him the election. He trails there by less than 2.5 points and three different polls taken over the last two weeks or so have had him ahead by a point. If a red wave breaks tomorrow, it’ll probably carry Iowa with it.

So, what happens if Romney locks up the prerequisites in Florida and Virginia and then wins Colorado, say — but ends up losing narrowly in both Ohio and Wisconsin? Now he’s stuck at 257 and not even winning both Iowa and New Hampshire will get him to 270. Either he needs a huge upset in Nevada, which is unlikely if OH and WI are trending blue, or he needs…

The longshots: Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10).

Actually, neither PA nor MI is a true longshot. Romney’s closer to Obama in the RCP average for each state (3.8 points in both Pennsylvania and Michigan) than he is in Wisconsin (4.2 points). He trails a bit more distantly in Minnesota (5.2 points), but even there, some polls have him either slightly ahead or within three. I’m listing these states here because they’re reliably blue in presidential elections and because the GOP has spent less time and money contesting them than it has in, say, Wisconsin. But if Romney runs into problems in the “decider” states, or if Virginia somehow falls through and he needs to find 13 EVs somewhere, obviously these will be crucially important. My hunch, though, is that if he’s losing narrowly in the more competitive midwestern states, like Ohio, then it’s unlikely he’ll reverse that trend in the less competitive ones. If any of the “longshot” states are turning red, it’s probably because there’s a huge Republican wave and Romney’s cruising to a landslide win. Here’s hoping.

***

If all of the above is too complicated, here’s a much simpler way to understand Romney’s task. Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory. If he doesn’t, then he’d have to win every other battleground state — Nevada included — or else.

Via Christian Heinze of GOP12, here’s the Rove map.


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bishop!!!

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

that’s twice today bishes.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Why to vote them out – from Drudge:

BIDEN: ‘President Clinton Bankrupted CHRYSLER’…

On opponents: ‘They don’t have much character at all’…

MICHELLE: ‘Imagine what Barack can do in 4 more years’

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

UNINSTALLING OBAMA………… █████████████▒ 99% Complete

brewcrew67 on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

At least if my head explodes tonight at least I know I already voted R/R here in OH. Not sure if I s/b excited or worried.

gsherin on November 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Wisconsin goes Ryan.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

300+ and 52/47.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

I don’t know how much more of this I can take.

usedtobeinmich on November 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

I think FL and VA pave the way. the order of call will then change the equation through the night. Who will get called earliest?? GA? VA? FL? SC?

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Kos has published his final predictions. He expects that Obama will win the popular vote by a 3.5% margin, and 332 electoral votes. Romney wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I expect that the Kos Kidz will cry that the Republicans stole the election through fraud — or something like that.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I am thinking Ohio will go for Romney.

Also NC and Virginia and Iowa and certainly Missouri.

I’m beyond speculating at this hour, though, and hope that everyone will vote with the most serious consequences in mind. And vote for Romney/Ryan.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Vlad Pootie-Tang must be anxiously awaiting Obama’s victory party and is on his way here. Snort.

http://freebeacon.com/russian-subs-skirt-coast/

Philly on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Wow! I have been saying 285 for a month! Rove agrees with me… exactly the same states too!

nitzsche on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

We can take PA. Planning on heading in at 6am. Polls open at 7.

talkingpoints on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I forgot Florida, sorry. I also think Florida will go for ROmney.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Where is your map, AP?

Here is mine…

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=boeq

GOP had about 6 practice runs for this in WI in the last 2 years. And they kicked as every time…

gaius on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Romney 343 / obama 195

Pork-Chop on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Wow! I have been saying 285 for a month! Rove agrees with me… exactly the same states too!

nitzsche on November 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I’ve listed 285 and 265 in the two polls on this site over the months. Just intuition, like, “off the top of my head” so to speak. I’m amazed that I’m so close to what Rove, and you, have evaluated same from a studied perspective.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

All that’s left are Prayers and GOP turn out.

There should be no Republican ballot left on the table. This has to be 95% Republican turn out.

The margin of cheat will be high.

Obama Liberalism and the Media must be destroyed.

I want to smash Obama’s Golden Calf to the ground, and his supporters should hide their faces in shame.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

At least if my head explodes tonight at least I know I already voted R/R here in OH. Not sure if I s/b excited or worried.

gsherin on November 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Excited. Definitely excited!

MJBrutus on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

karls prediction is pretty conservative–giving Romney FL, VA, OH, NH and nothing else.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

If Minnesota shocks, I will absolve you and Ed Morsi and Bishop for cursing us with Fritz, Harold Stassen, The ‘Body’ AND Alfranken!

Oh, and Wellstone too.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

UNINSTALLING OBAMA………… █████████████▒ 99% Complete

brewcrew67 on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

That was slick…

SHARPTOOTH on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Romney 343 / obama 195

Pork-Chop on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Please, dear Lord in Heaven, make it so.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

If Minnesota shocks, I will absolve you and Ed Morsi and Bishop for cursing us with Fritz, Harold Stassen, The ‘Body’ AND Alfranken!

Oh, and Wellstone too.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Of course all Minnesota Republicans may die of shock if that happens. Then we would never go red again.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Anybody posted these numbers yet.. Rasmussen party affiliation October poll numbers prior to the lat 2 elections and this year’s results.

Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ?????

KCB on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I don’t know how much more of this I can take.

usedtobeinmich on November 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

I’m with you. I’m going to lose my mind.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Give GG access to the Green Room and a regular slot on the Ed Morrissey Show!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 7:38 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

..if that happens, I vote for a GiGi “UN-COTT”; basically, you’ll be “Queen of QOTD for a Day”!

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:38 PM

I’m with you. I’m going to lose my mind.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

I know I’ve gained 10 pounds during this election.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Kos has published his final predictions. He expects that Obama will win the popular vote by a 3.5% margin, and 332 electoral votes. Romney wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state.

If Romney wins tomorrow, I expect that the Kos Kidz will cry that the Republicans stole the election through fraud — or something like that.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I don’t know where Kos/Left gets it’s voter-count because there is so much animosity about Obama nationwide and so little confidence about him, if not downright nausea at the mention of his name and sound of his voice. I can’t believe that there are a majority of voters today who would even consider voting for him or where KOS thinks they are.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

RCP is an average which includes some crazy polls with Dems weighted D+8 or more, right?
If that’s the case, and I could be wrong, RCP doesn’t seem like a helpful guide, since those outlier polls will necessarily skew the average way down in Obama’s favor, unless they’re offset by other polls that skew R+8 or so.

LASue on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Hasn’t changed, it’s all about Ohio.

hestrold on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Give GG access to the Green Room and a regular slot on the Ed Morrissey Show!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 7:38 PM

WOO HOO! That sounds good

..if that happens, I vote for a GiGi “UN-COTT”; basically, you’ll be “Queen of QOTD for a Day”!

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Works for me!

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

…you might have to take over Hot Air…Ed would become Press Secretary for the White House!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Assuming Obama wins Nevada, all he has to do to win the election is take the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — i.e., Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory.

I have been saying this for weeks, with a bit of a difference.

Obama must sweep the four Rust Belt states AND take either Iowa or Nevada in order to win. It’s really that simple.

If my guesses are correct on other states Romney is doing well in – FL, VA, CO all fall to him – Romney needs just one of those Rust Belt states to win the election (unless that one is Wisconsin, then he needs to snag IA or NH as well).

Red Cloud on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

UNINSTALLING OBAMA………… █████████████▒ 99% Complete

brewcrew67 on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I gotta find this post so I can add it to my Facebook page, if the good guys win tomorrow night.
And I usually try to keep politics off of Facebook…

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

…you might have to take over Hot Air…Ed would become Press Secretary for the White House!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Nah I wouldn’t want the pressure. However I could get troll banning rights – hmmmmm

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Path 4: All except Wisconsin, with Wisconsin a maybe. There isn’t a little wal around each state. Colorado is Romney, NH is Romney. Ohio is Romney.

Everything else is Icing on the cake.

Romney doesn’t get a good showing in Colorado because he is Colorado specific. Same for the others. He will win because of getting the indy split, more D turnover than R, and high R turnout. That works in all states where he is close, not just one, not this path or that path.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

My plan anyway. When VA polls close at 7pm the sign comes down. I live in a very blue area. If Mitt wins, it would appear I was rubbing it in to keep it on display.

BTW I live in a condo where I’m skirting the rules to even have a sign up. I’m waiting to get the fine from the board at which time I will write “Bite Me” across their letter and send it back to them. If they want to make this into a First Amendment lawsuit, I’m willing to go there.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:41 PM

What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

You don’t live near ghetto, so you’re prolly safe.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Why? Are Democrats turning into zombies tomorrow night? Zombies who are attracted to Romney signs? In which case, OK, thanks for the warning: home security systems.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Year Rasmussen Actual
2004 D +1.5 (Dem 38.7, Rep 37.2) D +0 (Dem 38, Rep 38)
2008 D +7.1 (Dem 40.3, Rep 33.3) D +7 (Dem 40, Rep 33)
2012 R +5.8 (Dem 33.3, Rep 39.1) ?????

KCB on November 5, 2012 at 7:37 PM

..amidst Guy Benson’s Eeyoring all over the place, John Podhoretz was disassembling the skewed polls and said this was highly significant because the sample was 15,000 folks, no jiggering, no skewing. and a 1% MOE!

Further, Gallup’s similar survey — sample of 9,500 — had R’s plus one.

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

…you might have to take over Hot Air…Ed would become Press Secretary for the White House!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Allahpundit would immediately start writing posts about how it looks bad for us in 2016.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

I want to smash Obama’s Golden Calf to the ground, and his supporters should hide their faces in shame.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

You can probably have part of that. :) But expect them to mourn the calf.

Axe on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I know I’ve gained 10 pounds during this election.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

I’ve gone from a 26/28 to a 4. I’m not going to let Obama put me back there. I haven’t exercised in two weeks, but after a recovery day on Wednesday, I’ll be back at it on Thursday.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Ka-bar make a really nice one….

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

There are insane lines for early voting….I voted two weeks ago and even last week there were huge lines.
I have a feeling people are fed up and they want to make sure nothing keeps them from voting….and I live in a blue (stupid) state.

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

The Fifth Column Treasonous Media will has already betrayed you… o_O

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

I believe I speak for a great number of citizens of this nation when I say that we are pretty darn tired of the threats of riots and riots and crime and mayhem by the Left when the Left doesn’t get it’s fix o’the day or hour or month or year or whatever.

You all can riot but don’t expect a good outcome from it.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. That would put him at 271. Romney must win at least one of those four states to have any chance of victory.

It hinges on Ohio.

A blowout will be seen early with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire going Republican which could happen, but is less likely.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

As one of those who have been playing with the 270 maps for months, this is all established info for me… but can somebody explain why the RCP numbers are being treated as if they aren’t skewed?

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Allahpundit would immediately start writing posts about how it looks bad for us in 2016.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

..heh.

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Allahpundit would immediately start writing posts about how it looks bad for us in 2016.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Isn’t he doing that already?

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Note that what we’re starting to hear from the Obama camp is that they believe the race is over and that they’ll even take all of the swing states. This was conveniently reported on Fox and the CorruptMedia this afternoon on TV and I expect we’ll see it in the daily newspapers tomorrow.

This is nothing but a strategy to demoralize/depress R turnout tomorrow, and it’s as old as the profession of prostitution. But, this is all we’re going to hear all day tomorrow.

They know that their key swing states, after FL and VA, are mostly in the CT and MT zones and that neither of these will be decided that early.

Hope that Team Romney and the RNC strikes back quickly on this tonight and tomorrow, since we can’t afford a single vote to stay at home.

TXUS on November 5, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I’ve gone from a 26/28 to a 4. I’m not going to let Obama put me back there. I haven’t exercised in two weeks, but after a recovery day on Wednesday, I’ll be back at it on Thursday.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

That is so impressive – congrats! I dropped 90 this past year.

Yep I’m back at it on Wednesday.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

OK, thanks for the warning: home security systems.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

The War Planner on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Yes, what I had in mind when I wrote, “home security systems.”

Note the plural…

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

This is a good site to game it out on a map.

http://www.270towin.com/

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

What if you WANT that fight to test out your new whacking stick?

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

You don’t live near ghetto, so you’re prolly safe.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Yeah, but there’s a libtard that lives down the street…I will beat down that geezer if he tries to attack my sign. Kidding, sort of.

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Just think how this race would be if illegals, felons, and the dead weren’t allowed to vote…

… Oh well, nothing like a ‘Free and Independent Press’ now is there?

Seven Percent Solution on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Serious question.

The GOP candidates had all those primary debates. Did that vetting process help Mitt Romney get to being poised for victory tomorrow night?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I can’t even focus on this. I voted early on Saturday, and now I’m waiting and praying.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Zombie deterrant system…

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Serious question.

The GOP candidates had all those primary debates. Did that vetting process help Mitt Romney get to being poised for victory tomorrow night?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Absolutely, yes.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Gee Alah, this doesn’t make feel very good, sounds like all paths are a long shot, why didn’t it feel this way during Bush’s elections?

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

The enormity of what’s at stake is beyond comprehension. May the fools stay home.

MT on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

A blowout will be seen early with Pennsylvania and New Hampshire going Republican which could happen, but is less likely.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Winning PA would make OH irrelevant.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida are the keys to the White Hose. Whoever wins at least two of the three will win the election.

ghostwriter on November 5, 2012 at 7:48 PM

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Wouldn’t want to be him :)

Cheers!

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Can anyone find for me that clip of from ’2016′ where Obama is trying to remember the cost of Obamacare but repeatedly fails, and then pretends like the crowd is distracting him?

Thanks!

Lawdawg86 on November 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Or you could listen to Rush and just scratch your head why the polls don’t indicate a massive landslide.

John the Libertarian on November 5, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Gee Alah, this doesn’t make feel very good, sounds like all paths are a long shot, why didn’t it feel this way during Bush’s elections?

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Because the incumbent always has the advantage.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:50 PM

If Minnesota shocks the world tomorrow – I want my own main thread post.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I saw you get into this car after the Ryan rally….what’s going on?

http://www.perfectduluthday.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/political_stickers-350×247.jpg

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 7:50 PM

the redskins won.

Romney wins.

that’s all.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Here’s my prediction:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bolz

Romney: 316
0: 222

right of the dial on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Romney will win Nevada.

Saltysam on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah, but there’s a libtard that lives down the street…I will beat down that geezer if he tries to attack my sign. Kidding, sort of.

HornetSting on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Kick the sh!t outta that old dog!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I would like to advise one and all to REMOVE your Romney stickers/signs BEFORE the polls close tomorrow night just in case!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

My husband said this exact thing to me today about my RR window cling.

buckichick1 on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I know I’ve gained 10 pounds during this election.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:39 PM

aww im sorry hunny , i guess now would not be a good time to tell you that i lost 20 pounds last month?

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I can’t even focus on this. I voted early on Saturday, and now I’m waiting and praying.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

So why did you vote early?

Not being accusatory but, damn it, tommorrow is the election not two months ago when voting opened in some states.

When I was living in Louisiana it killed them that federal elections occurred on Tuesday since their whole system is set up for Saturday elections. BUT… I’m curious why you voted early.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

your welcome to send them back to me GG

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I saw you get into this car after the Ryan rally….what’s going on?

http://www.perfectduluthday.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/political_stickers-350×247.jpg

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 7:50 PM

LOL! I think I’ve seen that car.

Was behind one last night that was white covered in liberal graffiti. It was truly special.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

aww im sorry hunny , i guess now would not be a good time to tell you that i lost 20 pounds last month?

katee bayer on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

I’ve been really bad these last couple of months :(

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Winning PA would make OH irrelevant.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:48 PM

True, but how likely is Pennsylvania to go Republican?

If it does, IMO it would mean that Romney will run the tables nationally.

sharrukin on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

You know? I watched my grandfather kill a gopher once.

He put a hose in the hole and when he ran out, he bashed him with a stick. POW!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

So why did you vote early?

Not being accusatory but, damn it, tommorrow is the election not two months ago when voting opened in some states.

When I was living in Louisiana it killed them that federal elections occurred on Tuesday since their whole system is set up for Saturday elections. BUT… I’m curious why you voted early.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Because it was convenient… and I didn’t want to take any chances on missing out, like an accident, or something. I felt relieved after I did it.

dukecitygirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

It’s funny that WI is polling against Mitt by so much, because I feel that’s going to end up solidly red. I’m less convinced about Ohio and MI, but feel PA will go red as well giving Mitt 291 ev on my map.

The question will be did the empty bomber jacket reap a tangible voter reward by playing POTUS in front of an obliging press, and overly obliging Republican Governor who shall not be named?

I think something wonderful is going to happen tomorrow. I accept that anything can happen, but that only makes me believe it will be good news. I’m sure I’ll see y’all here tomorrow.

CitizenEgg on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Good map there Gaius. For what it is worth, here is how I see it turning out:

I hope one of us is right. Get out there and vote people!

Jesse on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

the redskins won.

Romney wins.

that’s all.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Um… The Redskins Rule is that the incumbent wins if Washington wins their last home game before the election.

Washington lost to Carolina. Romeny wins. That is all.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

That is so impressive – congrats! I dropped 90 this past year.

Yep I’m back at it on Wednesday.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Good job! I’ve lost more than I weigh. I now work for Weight Watchers on Saturday mornings. Good way to keep the weight off. If you don’t weigh in at goal, you get canned.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

You know? I watched my grandfather kill a gopher once.

He put a hose in the hole and when he ran out, he bashed him with a stick. POW!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Should I be scared?????

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Leave it to Allah to bring the eeyore…

Leaking the internals to me just confirms that the data they have matches the rhetoric they’ve been telling each other…

1. Romney leads independents in every poll by roughly double digits nationally.
2. All of these polls that have Obama ahead have a Democrats matching or exceeding 2008 turnout. Not going to happen.
3. Early votes – Dems are way down and Reps are up. These are real votes cast and not a scientific poll.
4. Reps beat Dems substantially on election days in nearly every state. There are a few exceptions but Reps are about even in those states or even ahead.
5. Enthusiasm is above Dems by 5-10%.

Can Obama win? Sure. The only way he’s going to do it is with the votes he’s currently got locked up with Dems and Indys…. and Dem voters that unlikely to vote. It’s why he has pop stars coming out for him because he needs to get the unlikely voters’ attention.

Romney is in a strong position. I don’t think he’s going to get 300+ electoral votes, it’s possible. But I think it’s better then 50-50 he’ll win.

dforston on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Good job! I’ve lost more than I weigh. I now work for Weight Watchers on Saturday mornings. Good way to keep the weight off. If you don’t weigh in at goal, you get canned.

TXMomof3 on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

WW lifetime member here (well until I gain 10 pounds)

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

CitizenEgg on November 5, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Perhaps you should consult steveegg. Or MadCon.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 7:56 PM

It’s entirely depressing having to even talk about a possible O win.

Mr. Arrogant on November 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

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