Romney up 5 in FL, 1 in IA

posted at 2:41 pm on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I’ll finish up my poll analysis today with a couple of last-minute polls in two key swing states.  First, corroborating the Mason-Dixon poll released this weekend for a Florida media consortium, Mitt Romney has a significant-if-not-comfortable lead in Florida in the Jacksonville Times-Union/Insider Advantage poll, 52/47:

Mitt Romney’s lead with independent voters has propelled him to a 5-point lead in Florida two days before Election Day, according to a Times-Union/InsiderAdvantage poll released Sunday night.

Likely/registered voters favored Romney 52 percent to 47 percent for Barack Obama, but Romney holds a 25-point lead with independent voters.

“Romney’s lead is made possible by the substantial advantage he enjoys among those who identify themselves as independent voters,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery. “Independent voters have been the determining factor in Florida political contests for many years.”

The poll surveyed 437 voters statewide with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points.

That is a pretty small sample for a state like Florida, but it corresponds with the earlier Mason-Dixon poll.  The newspaper didn’t release all of the internals, but those it does aren’t exactly surprises.  Obama has more than a 2-1 lead among younger voters, 67/32, but loses all other age demos 30 years old and above by ten or more points, and 17 among seniors (40/57).  Obama has a ten-point lead among Hispanics, better than the Mason-Dixon poll, but Romney’s lead among independents is too high to overcome.

The race is closer in Iowa, but Romney has a slight edge in the latest ARG poll.  He leads Obama 49/48 in a sample that’s D+1 at 36/35/29, but it’s tight all the way through.  Romney also has a one-point edge with independents at 48/47, but wins voters at 50 years and older by nine points (53/44), two better than Obama wins those under 50 (52/45).  Early voters comprise 44% of the sample and give Obama an eight-point lead, while Election Day voters give Romney a seven-point lead.  The D/R/I in 2008 was 34/33/33, and Obama won the state by nine points.  In 2010, it was 31/35/34, so this may lean a little more Democrat than we will see tomorrow.

Finally, we have the USA Today/Gallup swing-state poll:

Voters in the nation’s key battlegrounds have become as enthusiastic and engaged in the 2012 presidential election as they were in the historic contest four years ago, and they finally have made up their minds about President Obama and Mitt Romney.

It’s a tie: 48%-48%.

We don’t get the internals on this at all.  However, I’d say that an incumbent President at 48% and in a tie the day before Election Day is in serious trouble.  Late breaking voters at this point will go significantly more to the challenger, especially when jobs and the economy are the focus and we’re in the middle of a stagnant recovery.

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VA is goneOURS.

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 3:27 PM

This is what you meant, right??

Chewy the Lab on November 5, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Mitt Romney has a significant-if-not-comfortable lead in Florida in the Jacksonville Times-Union/Insider Advantage poll, 52/47:

A 5 point lead and a 25 point edge with Independents isn’t comfortable?

Early voters comprise 44% of the sample and give Obama an eight-point lead, while Election Day voters give Romney a seven-point lead.

Not reliable. Democrats have been lying about whether they have already voted.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

This is a good sign. And Florida _really_ doesn’t want to be in the middle of another disputed election fight. But Ohio may not be so lucky.

BUT – I’m expecting a bloodbath (for Romney), so it’s a moot point for me.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Larry Sabato predicts Obama landslide – gives him several swing states on account of Sandy.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 3:00 PM

That’s too funny. Like the economy doesn’t matter? *snorts*

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 3:02 PM

Sabato claimed that Kerry was going to win in 2004 as well…

jaygatz33 on November 5, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Legacy of the Prince of Darkness, a perfect depiction.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Good article. Well worth reading. Very spot-on.

Lourdes on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Democrats have been lying about whether they have already voted.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I have a gut feeling that quite a few Democrat voters will be lying about whether they voted for Obama or not. They will swear they voted Obama, but they actually voted for Romney.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

According to my seventh-grade figuring (I am a math tutor but we don’t need trigonometry for this), if Romney is up (let’s round up to) 20 points among independents, and 30% of voters are indepndents, then that means an actual six-point advantage when all is said and done (18 for R and 12 for O). If he’s up a little less or there are fewer indepdendents, then we can adjust it a point or two down. That what everybody else figures?

bmmg39 on November 5, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Posts like this are why a lot of Hot Air readers are going to be disappointed tomorrow. Ed is only publishing polls that show Romney ahead. Where’s the WSJ/Marist/NBC poll showing Obama ahead in Florida by 2? The Numerous polls showing Obama ahead in VA? The numerous polls showing him leading in IA, PA and OH? No wonder people here think Romney is going to win, Hot Air is cherry picking polls to drive a narrative that dupes people into thinking Romney will win. Its kind of cruel

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Democrats have been lying about whether they have already voted.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 3:36 PM

I have a gut feeling that quite a few Democrat voters will be lying about whether they voted for Obama or not. They will swear they voted Obama, but they actually voted for Romney.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Well it’s basically a proven fact that most all of these polls have fantasy early voting #s. I think that’s why so many of them are missing Romney’s considerable lead. For example, many polls have early voting at 40% in some states where actual numbers show it’s no higher than 30%…makes the polls useless.

jaygatz33 on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

FINISH! HIM!

rollthedice on November 5, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Wonder if Palin’s late endorsement will have any impact in Iowa.

txmomof6 on November 5, 2012 at 3:48 PM

FINISH! HIM!

rollthedice on November 5, 2012 at 3:46 PM

THIS

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

I have a gut feeling that quite a few Democrat voters will be lying about whether they voted for Obama or not. They will swear they voted Obama, but they actually voted for Romney.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 3:40 PM

I got a polling call this morning and they now know that I’m a young black dem, voting for Romney. My cell phone has an Ohio number and even though I don’t live over there, I still get called. What they don’t know, won’t hurt them, right? I have change parties and race, more than a few times, recently. Hope I get another call, before the day’s out. I really, really want to be a Hispanic Republican female.

Norky on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

In 2004, Bush led Kerry 48-47 in a number of polls the day before the election. Obama leads in the NBC/WSJ “battleground states” polls, obama leads 50-46%. It sort of seems like an Obama slam dunk.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Hope I get another call, before the day’s out. I really, really want to be a Hispanic Republican female.

Norky on November 5, 2012 at 3:49 PM

:-) sounds like you are fulfilling all your fantasies there and playing whatever persona you always wanted to be :-)…heck, why not, as long as it confounds the heck out of them and stop them from stealing the elections…

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Put a fork in Obama, he is under 50% in most every state that has any meaning in this election…how do you win with below 50%??

If the country was Chicago…

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Bruno Jr. reports from ISU in Ames:

“The Obama people are obnoxious and annoying. The hassle you every time you go to the library. The Romney people just put up signs and leave it at that. Most kids don’t care either way and there is not much excitement about the election at all.”
All voting-age Strozeks are going for Mittens, including Mrs. Strozek, who has never voted for a Republican in her life.

Bruno Strozek on November 5, 2012 at 3:02 PM

sounds like you are quite the patriarch there! :-)

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 3:58 PM

Hmm. Sounds like Romney’s internals – if this is true – are matching Ras and Susquehanna’s numbers.

Romney campaign internal polling puts Republican nominee up ONE POINT in Ohio and TIED in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Bellwethers-Give-Romney-95%-Chance-of-Victory

John Nolte of Breitbart has some anti-Eeyore medicine.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 4:04 PM

… No wonder people here think Romney is going to win, Hot Air is cherry picking polls to drive a narrative that dupes people into thinking Romney will win. Its kind of cruel

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Especially since we’re too stupid to find our way over to Real Clear Politics and their poll compendium..

/sheesh

M240H on November 5, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Hot Air is cherry picking polls to drive a narrative that dupes people into thinking Romney will win.

Yeah. I mean, it’s not out of the question that Romney could win, but it’s not looking good. Even if you assume Florida goes to Romney, he has his work cut out for him. Even if he wins Florida and Ohio, he still has the same number of EV paths to victory as Obama. Romney needs an amazing night, cutting a path through the swing states like a Jedi on a landspeeder navigating through the trees of the forrest moon of Endor. Obama just needs a few wins out of myriad paths available to him.

Mark Jaquith on November 5, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Romney needs an amazing night, cutting a path through the swing states like a Jedi on a landspeeder navigating through the trees of the forrest moon of Endor. Obama just needs a few wins out of myriad paths available to him.

Mark Jaquith on November 5, 2012 at 4:11 PM

How old are you??

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 4:16 PM

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 3:58 PM

I credit Rush and Jason Lewis.

When I’ve got them in the car they have no choice but be quiet and listen.

Bruno Strozek on November 5, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Is it too early to start drinking?

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Have already started, and am on my second one..

lovingmyUSA on November 5, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Romney needs an amazing night, cutting a path through the swing states like a Jedi on a landspeeder navigating through the trees of the forrest moon of Endor. Obama just needs a few wins out of myriad paths available to him.

Mark Jaquith on November 5, 2012 at 4:11 PM

How old are you??

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Clearly an idiot who confuses real-life politics with his fantasy football league

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 4:24 PM

It ain’t over till Humpbot humps.

Akzed on November 5, 2012 at 4:27 PM

In 2004, Bush led Kerry 48-47 in a number of polls the day before the election. Obama leads in the NBC/WSJ “battleground states” polls, obama leads 50-46%. It sort of seems like an Obama slam dunk.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Actually that’s not true. Many polls had Bush down by a few points in OH in 2004 all the way to election day….After he won they claimed he must have won the late deciders…only problem was exit polls showed late deciders went to Kerry by a significant margin…Point being they polled the Republican, as usual, much lower than reality.

jaygatz33 on November 5, 2012 at 4:28 PM

What ever could the trolls be up to with all this ‘you are not living in reality’ concern?

You would think they would leave us to our illusions if it were true. Better for Obama in the end.

No, their last hope is to make us sweat for the next day and a bit. It is all they have left.

Mitsouko on November 5, 2012 at 4:32 PM

No, their last hope is to make us sweat for the next day and a bit. It is all they have left.

Mitsouko on November 5, 2012 at 4:32 PM

I just don’t want to hear the “voter fraud!” claims when Romney loses.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Damnit! Who called off the Trollcott while I was gone?

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Poll Troll Swarm Alert

All day.

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 4:47 PM

And in approximately 24 hours they’ll all be gone. Like magic.

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Actually that’s not true. Many polls had Bush down by a few points in OH in 2004 all the way to election day….After he won they claimed he must have won the late deciders…only problem was exit polls showed late deciders went to Kerry by a significant margin…Point being they polled the Republican, as usual, much lower than reality.

jaygatz33 on November 5, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Yup. Having Dems fantasize about the election being in the bag due to faulty polling is is nothing new.

2004 was especially fun:

Chuck F. Todd predicting a “Kerry landslide”.
Krugman stating on air that Kerry would win “300+ electoral votes”
Bob Shrum to Kerry (on Election Day no less) “May I be the first to say, Congraulations Mr. President”…

LOL

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Way, way too easy.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 3:20 PM

heh, I’m impressed!

Sailfish on November 5, 2012 at 5:01 PM

Bob Shrum to Kerry (on Election Day no less) “May I be the first to say, Congraulations Mr. President”…

LOL

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 4:56 PM

priceless :-)

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Have already started, and am on my second one..

lovingmyUSA on November 5, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Say it ain’t so!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Damnit! Who called off the Trollcott while I was gone?

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Poll Troll Swarm Alert

All day.

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 4:47 PM

…been gone all day too…the crew has done well.
We want to see their brain tissue the next couple of days…I mean look at turdfreeordie…he’s lost it…and as long as we keep the poll troll gumme out…(so we have some kind of control sans management…I’m happy!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 6:39 PM

I’d rather have one mainstream poll showing Romney 5% ahead in a battleground state anywhere than some anecdotal evidence about signage. But going around San Francisco yesterday I saw ONE sign in a house/apartment for President, and it was for Romney. These are neighborhoods that went 90% for Obama in 2008.

I know some of the country thinks we’re all gay porn actors and SEIU reps, but much of the city of course is young professionals who came out in such numbers for Obama in 2008. And if there’s so little enthusiasm here, it’s hard to believe it will be much different in places like Philly where Obama needs to win big.

bobs1196 on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 PM

bobs1196 on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Excellent analysis, bobs1196. I agree. I live in the SF Bay Area as well and when I voted this morning, the lines – and the enthusiasm – were both far less than what I saw four years ago. Hopefully this means that the same scenario is occurring in places like Philadelphia.

So to my fellow Hot Gassers, please, please, please get out there and VOTE! Remember, we’re going to need turnout to overcome all the multiple-voting dead and illegals that the big-city Democrat machines will have available.

StoneHeads on November 6, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Comment pages: 1 2