Rasmussen: Romney up in VA, MT, IN

posted at 2:01 pm on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The final polls will come at us quickly today and possibly tomorrow as well, so we’ll tighten up our focus and try to cover as many as we can.  Rasmussen has three new polls out over the last 24 hours, but only one in a big-focus swing state, Virginia.  Mitt Romney maintains a small edge in the Old Dominion that he has kept for the last three weeks, but it’s small enough to get one last visit from the candidate in the final hours of the campaign:

Mitt Romney still earns 50% support in Virginia just before Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters shows Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama’s 48%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided.

This is unchanged from two weeks ago and the week before that when it was Romney 50%, Obama 47%.

This one’s tight enough to look at the internals, which are somewhat surprising given the closeness of the toplines.  Obama actually loses the overall gender gap by three points (-7 among men, +4 among women), but he’s also losing independents in Virginia by 21 points, 58/37.  In 2008, Obama had a +11 in the gender gap and won independents by one point, 49/48.  The D/R/I in this sample is D+2 at 38/36/25; in 2008 it was 39/33/27 but in 2009′s gubernatorial election it was 33/37/30.

Romney wins the economic argument by six points, 51/45 over Obama.  There’s a significant gender gap on this question as well, but it also favors Romney (+10 among men, +1 among women).  Romney has a 25-point lead among independents on this question, 58/33.  On the other hand, Obama does have a positive job-approval rating at 51/49, which is probably why the toplines look as close as they do.  I’d guess, though, that Virginia’s going to break significantly for Romney.

Romney has better leads in two other states Rasmussen polled.  In Indiana, which Obama won in 2008 by about one point, Romney leads by nine points, 52/43, making this Rust Belt state safe.  In Montana, a traditionally Republican state that Obama came within three points of winning in 2008, Romney has a 10-point lead, 53/43.  No one seriously considered either in play, so these come as no big surprise.

Rasmussen’s national tracking poll puts Romney back up on top by one again today:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.

Their swing-state tracking poll has been down for a week following the impact of Hurricane Sandy.  The results of the national poll have all been margin-of-error tremors, but Romney has led more than he’s been tied or behind since the end of the debates.  Here again, though, the internals look much brighter for Romney.  He has a fifteen point lead among independents (53/38), and a fifteen-point lead among seniors (57/42).  Romney wins the gender gap by five points overall with a +15 among men and a -10 among women.  That’s roughly the same as we saw with the internals of the CNN poll with the D+11 sample.

It’s going to be a close race overall, but I’d prefer to be on Romney’s side of those internals in both polls than Obama’s.


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Do any polls come out tomorrow? :)

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Lookie, VA

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

These +double digit Indie numbers for Romney, yet tied? I don’t understand this.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Romney has run a pitch oerfect campaign, hitting all the important buttons and hammering away on the economy.

If he loses this considering the poor economic numbers, I think the Republican Party as we know it, is done. Huge election.

rickyricardo on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election:

Romney for President
The Obama record is unimpressive.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors

AdrianS on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

At Daily Kos they’re already posting articles predicting what excuses Republicans will offer for Romney’s loss.

They’re that confident.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

All three states need coattails for the Senate as well!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

The Prince of Darkness – a perfect depiction of his legacy.

Nothing new to me – glad America has opened her eyes.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Do any polls come out tomorrow? :)

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Rasmussen will release their final track. Given the movement towards Romney in today’s poll; I expect it to show a 50-48 or 51-48 Romney margin tomorrow.

Remember, Rasmussen was the only pollster to accurately predict the final Obama-McCain margin in 2008.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

MT & IN? Whatever, but I’m glad to American Crossroads is finally making -national- cable buys, at least on Fox. All PACS should do that, buy national now, we don’t know exactly where the swing states are, pull out all the stops and go last minute with a national buy if at all possible.

anotherJoe on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

VA 2008 D+6, 2009 D-4, 2010 D ? and now D+2 again for a R+1 result. Call it for Romney.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Romney’s 15 point lead with independents sounds insurmountable.

Obama had his chance. Everyone knows it’s time for a change.

LASue on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

If there are coattails effect, VA and MT could be senate gains for us and Mourdock may have a chance to keep Lugar’s seat after his foot in the mouth comments.

TxAnn56 on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

All consistent with even turnout, More Dem crossovers than R, and Indies for Romney by 5-10%. Romney wins NC, VA, OH, NH, CO, IA. We’ll wait to see about WI, PA, and MI – would love to see at least one of these.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I don’t understand polling MT and IN at this point, but what’s interesting is, again, the huge swing from ’08. Barry was close in MT and barely won IN…this year, they’re not even close. So why wouldn’t we see those same swings in other states?

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

BOOOOOOOM!

Wilder chooses not to endorse for president

Wilder does not expressly back Romney, but he says the Republican has met the test to be president.

“The Republicans endured a bad nominating process. Yet in the end, they seem to have chosen a credible candidate that many Virginians tell me they would feel fairly comfortable with in the Oval Office.

“Democrats counted on using ad hominem attacks to make Romney seem too unworthy and too unsteady to be the country’s chief executive because of the rough nominating process. But that has not been 100 percent effective.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

You know, not to awful far from where I live is a bar called The Grumpy Troll. Maybe I’ll celebrate there tomorrow.

M240H on November 5, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Romney has run a pitch oerfect campaign, hitting all the important buttons and hammering away on the economy.

If he loses this considering the poor economic numbers, I think the Republican Party as we know it, is done. Huge election.

rickyricardo on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

I disagree that Romney has run a perfect campaign. He should have been more critical about national security issues- especially Benghazi. If he loses tomorrow it is not the end of the GOP as we know it, it is the end of the nation as we know it. Seriously.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Rasmussen: Romney up in VA, MT, IN


The Fifth Column Treasonous Media will take care of that…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 2:08 PM

14 point change in gender and a 22 point swing in Independents!!! How in the hell is this just seen as a tie?

My head hurts, math can’t be this hard.

nextgen_repub on November 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Do any polls come out tomorrow? :)

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

erh…you had me…but just for a second.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

It’s going to be a close race overall, but I’d prefer to be on Romney’s side of those internals in both polls than Obama’s.

Really? It’s fascinating and kind of weird that Romney dominates Obama among independents and white males yet Obama is still tied or ahead in most national and swing state polls. Unless almost all of the polls are wrong, I’d rather have Obama’s numbers

YYZ on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

a 10pt reversal for Hopey in Indiana does not bode well for him.
I look at the pt reversal from 2008. In Fla – its 5-6 pts.

Hopey gains nothing over 2008, he only loses pct.

How much has he lost, is the $16 Trillion question?

FlaMurph on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

They’re that confident.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Nothing beats Maddow copping to drinking a bunch of RedBulls on the night of the Wisconsin recall only to have it called within 45 minutes of the polls closing. A Romney win tommorow will be epic but that was a great warm-up that stills shines.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

You know, not to awful far from where I live is a bar called The Grumpy Troll. Maybe I’ll celebrate there tomorrow.

M240H on November 5, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Isn’t life funny some times? You couldn’t make stuff up like that if you tried…

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

At Daily Kos they’re already posting articles predicting what excuses Republicans will offer for Romney’s loss.

They’re that confident.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

I do believe this falls under the “Whistling In The Graveyard” category.

pilamaye on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Romney has better leads in two other states Rasmussen polled. In Indiana, which Obama won in 2008 by about one point, Romney leads by nine points, 52/43, making this Rust Belt state safe. In Montana, a traditionally Republican state that Obama came within three points of winning in 2008, Romney has a 10-point lead, 53/43. No one seriously considered either in play, so these come as no big surprise.

Both states show swings of 7-8 points which is what Obama’s been losing in most states compared to 2008. That’s why I think he’s in big trouble in O-I-H-O. He won that state by 4 1/2 points. If the same trend holds true in that state, Romney wins by 3-4 points.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

14 point change in gender and a 22 point swing in Independents!!! How in the hell is this just seen as a tie?

My head hurts, math can’t be this hard.

nextgen_repub on November 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

THIS.

How does this jive in being tied?

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Indiana and Montana… Mittmentum!!

Alpha_Male on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

You know, not to awful far from where I live is a bar called The Grumpy Troll. Maybe I’ll celebrate there tomorrow.

M240H on November 5, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Might want to check and make sure its a bar, and not just a warning sign outside Helen Thomas’s house.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

I think no matter what happens in this election, the two parties are both going to be forced to change significantly, and/or a third party will sprout up. In fact, I’d say the third party is almost a given based on how people feel about the two parties.

If Romney wins, i expect civil unrest, riots, and violence. If Obama wins, I expect civil disobedience, thousands of people going Galt, and possibly violence. I am extremely pessimistic that this horrible polarization Obama inflicted on us with his evil Democrat Party/Progressivism/Liberalism can be untangled quickly enough and completely enough before such horrors erupt.

I’m very nervous about tomorrow.

WashingtonsWake on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Crossroads is running very effective ads in CA.

Is there hope for this state?

PattyJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

At Daily Kos they’re already posting articles predicting what excuses Republicans will offer for Romney’s loss.

They’re that confident.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

Meh. The biggest reason to me will be that the Left and their media allies succeeded in airbrushing Obama’s record and making it into a referendum on Romney. Obama campaigned as if Romney was the incumbent, and he was never held accountable for the miserable economic numbers. In fact, they were spun the other way.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Come on Ed, we all want the official HotGas election prediction!!!

I’m calling it at 269-269 tie with the popular vote and ensuing congressional tie-breaker election going to Romney. And it WILL get ugly.

abobo on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Today is just the longest day, next to January 20th, 2009.

I cannot wait for tomorrow!

Rixon on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

AdrianS

Barack Obama’s rise to power brought together the vanity of a man, a social class, and an ideology. The mood of his support base may have gone from utopian to thuggish over the last four years, but the intense self-satisfaction remains. In part because of the incumbent’s own personality, contemporary liberalism (with honorable exceptions) is unable to understand opposition to itself in other than pathological terms. How else to explain how so many people could fail to recognize the greatness of his presidency?

This explains it all. He is clinically sick. I always knew it. See Symptoms, top/left, too.

This article is the best, bottom line legacy of the Prince of Darnkness. Let the post-racial phase really begin tomorrow.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Both states show swings of 7-8 points which is what Obama’s been losing in most states compared to 2008. That’s why I think he’s in big trouble in O-I-H-O. He won that state by 4 1/2 points. If the same trend holds true in that state, Romney wins by 3-4 points.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Trends. Can’t escape them.

Can’t escape turnout either.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I praying for a river of liberal tears on Wednesday.

Urban Infidel on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

When even, or within margin of error, the incumbent loses.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Just remember that Reagan-Carter in 1980 was “too close to call” for the pollsters, including Gallup.

Don’t let the press dampen your enthusiasm. They’re tools.

LASue on November 5, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Nothing beats Maddow copping to drinking a bunch of RedBulls on the night of the Wisconsin recall only to have it called within 45 minutes of the polls closing. A Romney win tommorow will be epic but that was a great warm-up that stills shines.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Even better was the beatnik on before her show who interviewed some liberal dude “with all the info” about the recall who said “no way” will there be a concession speech, we’re leading all around and our exit polls are very good”.

It was literally 2 minutes later….the concession.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Montana?

clnurnberg on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

PattyJ

…. No.

California is lost.

WashingtonsWake on November 5, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Crossroads is running very effective ads in CA.

Is there hope for this state?

PattyJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Nope.

But it is 80 degrees and beautiful out right now.
So there’s that.

LASue on November 5, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Courtesy of davidk, in other thread today

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Finally! The last desperation polls! We can end this National Nightmare tomorrow. these polls don’t mean very much. It’s all turnout now! Get your people out or we won’t be able to make up for the Legions of Democrat Deceased, Multiple(Union Paid) and Illegal Alien voters. Let alone the rigged voting machines we’ve seen pop up in all the swing states.
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I simply can’t understand why this race is so close in the polls. I continue to hope that the wide oversampling of Dims is the reason, but I’m truly worried. How is it that Benghazigate, the abysmal economy, unemployment, O’Care, mounting national debt and soaring gas prices have escaped half of the electorate? Even that fool Larry Sabato is predicting an Obarky win. This is insane.

Slainte on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

These +double digit Indie numbers for Romney, yet tied? I don’t understand this.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Yeah, that’s what’s confusing me as well. All the internals that show Romney doing well in specific demos should translate to the top-line.

If Obama’s job approval is 51% or whatever then Romney should not be leading with Indies and there should either be no gender gap or a gap in Obama’s favor.

hisfrogness on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Crossroads is running very effective ads in CA.

Is there hope for this state?

PattyJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Nope.

But it’s 80 degrees and beautiful out today. So there’s that.

LASue on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

14 point change in gender and a 22 point swing in Independents!!! How in the hell is this just seen as a tie?

My head hurts, math can’t be this hard.

nextgen_repub on November 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Easy;

1. Oversample Democrats (D+4 or higher)
2. Undersample Republicans/Independent

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

If Obama gets less than 60% of the vote, I think Republicans should call that an enormous victory. When cities the size of LA and SF are going 75-85% in favor of a candidate, it’s really almost impossible for the opposition to make up the difference even in a state as big as California.

WashingtonsWake on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

If Obama wins it secures Obamacare, that’s it. Everything else is total gridlock for 4 more years. There will be no more Obama legislation. My guess is Romney would win in 2016 by a historic landslide after 4 more years of Obama.

TonyR on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

OK, when do the exit poll information begins to leak out tomorrow? 6:00 PM EST?

OH, PA, VA, NH, as earlier indicators.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Strippers will be sad and lonely on Wednesday.

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

patty j …sorry even the lunatic fringe on here aren’t going to tell you Romney has a whisper of a chance in Ca… also you must go by a weird definition of the word “effective” ….

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Newsflash & Realty Check!!!

Fox Business Sr. Corespondent and top Wall St. insider Charles Gasparino just reported that Wall St. CEOs are convinced that Obama is going to win the election. These CEOs heavily donated to Romney this cycle. According to Gasparino the CEOs are saying that “Obama wins in a walk”. This is based upon their conversations with both candidate’s inner circle and their own connections to pollsters. Obama remains a 4:1 favorite…

More real news as it breaks….

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Montana?

clnurnberg on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Don’t look at the state. Look at the projected margin for tomorrow vs what it was 4 years ago.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 2:18 PM

With internals like this I don’t see how Romney fails to beat Obama by a wider margin than Obama beat McCain.

I have Romney winning 54% in this morning’s Hot Air survey.

Varchild on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

All three states need coattails for the Senate as well!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

This.

I don’t care much about MT or IN. VA has some interest, but the real challenge is the Senate.

Abby Adams on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Unless almost all of the polls are wrong, I’d rather have Obama’s numbers

YYZ on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

.
I’m telling ya now…. these pollsters aren’t factoring in a type non-racially motivated Bradley Effect. Voters will tell these pollsters one thing and vote Romney in private. The enthusiam and visibilty around the country is not 50-50. That can and will be the only logical possibility (explanation) if Romney wins 52-48 or more.

And also that the USA is still a racist nation.

FlaMurph on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

TonyR on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM

What worries me is the Greek scenario in the USA between now and 2016.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Barky, I dare you to call Doug Wilder an Uncle Tom. You’re a chicken. You’ll send Toure to do it.

Philly on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I love delusional leftists.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Only poll that counts:

Wife, son, myself: RnR

Daughter: Whoever isn’t RnR or Barry/Joe.

Two sisters-in-law unfortunately residing in WI: Barry/Joe

Four of my five dogs: Rocky n Bulwinkle

The fifth dog is up for some last minute incentive from anyone.

Limerick on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Might want to check and make sure its a bar, and not just a warning sign outside Helen Thomas’s house.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Damn you. My ribs hurt from coughing and sneezing for few days – I’ve had a cold. But laughter makes it hurt even more.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

FYI, Bush won Virginia in ’04 by 8.2%, Obama won it in ’08 by 6.3%. About a 225k vote difference in 2008.

nextgen_repub on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

I’ve cancelled all plans I normally have for Tuesday nights to watch the election results. This is a pivotal election, and I plan to watch the events unfold like a hawk.

I agree with WashingtonsWake that there is going to be serious civil unrest in some segments of the population if Obama loses.

KickandSwimMom on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

patty j …sorry even the lunatic fringe on here aren’t going to tell you Romney has a whisper of a chance in Ca… also you must go by a weird definition of the word “effective” ….

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Romney is going to dominate in California. I predict a landslide victory for Romney in the State of California.

Varchild on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

One day before the historical vote

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Stock up on beer and ammo.

Landslide’s a commin’.

Tim_CA on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Bob, I want ‘em all… with enough coattails to turn the WI and PA Senate seats to R.

either orr on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Still need OH.

Rasmussen has it as a tie.
SurveyUSA has Barry up 5, MOE 3.5 , and party ID D+5, indie votes are tied.
Univ. of Cin, with no internals, has Barry up 1.5.

All depends on ground game and GOTV. But concerned, and OH result will likely be so close even if Romney pulls it out that dem lawsuits are guaranteed..

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 2:22 PM

The fifth dog is up for some last minute incentive from anyone.

Limerick on November 5, 2012 at 2:21 PM

Here is a piece of bacon, pup. And another one. Vote Romney. Good dog!

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:23 PM

Ed ( self appointed number one polling deconstruction expert in the universe) Morrissey…. I would rather go with the Nate Silver model and trends then your polling deconstruction “magic”…and although I am worried that Romney may win ( after all Bush fooled millions of Americans before they got wise and turned on him )I rather have the current 80% of battleground state polls going for President Obama rather than Rasmussen like Romney does …

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Poll Troll Swarm Day

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Are we looking at a bunch of conservatives voting against Romney? Is that why the polls are tied?

nitzsche on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I heard little Bammie on the radio-box, saying “we’ve come too far, to turn back naah!”

What is ‘naah’? It’s not ybonix, because no one else in the world talks like that. Is he so full of himself that he thinks he can start his own dialect?

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

With due respect to Ed and all the great folks here, am I the only person in America that thinks reporting poll results endlessly, analyzing them to the minutest detail, wriiting long columns about them ad nauseam, is not only not reporting anything of substance, but is just, how would you say it, wrong?

douglucy on November 5, 2012 at 2:25 PM

Did you guys see this – R+6?

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
I dont think people understand that Rasmussen polls 15,000 people a month. Showing a flip from D+7 in 08 to R+6 today is no small thing.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 2:25 PM

He has a fifteen point lead among independents (53/38), and a fifteen-point lead among seniors (57/42).

I don’t get it. How is he leading Indies by 15 but only leading the overall tracking poll by 1? Any figures on the D/R/I for this, Ed?

I’m digging me some Independents numbers today. I had an Eeyore attack last night but I feel much better. I’d like to hear how the Daily Kos kids think Barry is going to overcome these numbers with Independents, when the national turnout will probably be close to even between the parties.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I don’t understand polling MT and IN at this point, but what’s interesting is, again, the huge swing from ’08. Barry was close in MT and barely won IN…this year, they’re not even close. So why wouldn’t we see those same swings in other states?

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Rasmussen probably polled Montana and Indiana not for the presidential election but mainly for the Senate races which are really close. The presidential poll was probably an afterthought or a secondary focus.

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Yeah – CrossRoads. New Mexico here…. Running all kinds of adds for Romney and against martin Heinrich for Senate. Must in the realm of possibility or they wouldn’t be here. The PACs had originally abandoned Heather Wilson for Senate because she was too far back in the initial “polling”.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Crossroads is running very effective ads in CA.

Is there hope for this state?

PattyJ on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Are you kidding? If Romney comes even remotely close in CA the election will already have been won by a landslide that not one of these pollsters would have predicted.

IMO, California has become ungovernable. It is hard to see how one would turn the state around unless and until there is sanity in Sacramento.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Look at the brightest of sides….whoever wins means that Tums sales and psychologist billing hours will go thru the roof!

Limerick on November 5, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Well Patty there you go Varchild has your back next they will help you buy some beachfront property in Nebraska … go for it …

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 2:27 PM

until there is sanity in Sacramento.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Side-splitting laughter…..

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Remember, folks, McCain outperformed virtually every pollster but Rasmussen.

Ergo, if they show a tie or small Obama lead, we’re good.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Colorado Early Voting: Republicans Lead By 2%…

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 2:29 PM

Consistent…

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 2:30 PM

What worries me is the Greek scenario in the USA between now and 2016.

Oil Can on November 5, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Yep, it’s coming and all we can do now it try to put the right management structure in place to handle it, because Jackass sure as h can’t.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Is he so full of himself that he thinks he can start his own dialect?

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I tuned out the the rat-eared wonder weeks ago when he referred the Muslim animals that attacked Benghazi as “folks.” Every group is “folks.” The initial lies had folks at the US Consulate at Benghazi attacked by folks upset about a video and then some folks took the dead ambassador to a hospital.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 2:30 PM

I expect the network ‘call’ to be early Obama, changing to Romney as the returns come in…probably late (around 2:30 am Wed- so as to miss the late news on the westcoast)…gonna dvr msnbc, to enjoy it at my leasure.

Have got the coffee pots set up already… probably call in late for work Wednesday.

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 2:31 PM

If Obama wins it secures Obamacare, that’s it. Everything else is total gridlock for 4 more years. There will be no more Obama legislation. My guess is Romney would win in 2016 by a historic landslide after 4 more years of Obama.

TonyR on November 5, 2012 at 2:17 PM</

Very funny. There will be no Romney after tomorrow. I do admire the enthusiasm folks here are showing for a Romney victory regardless of what all the major polls are forecasting. The left would have packed it up by now if the polls were half as bad as they are for Romney.

It should be very interesting tomorrow night.

loveofcountry on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

They’re that confident delusional.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

FIFY

At DU and DKOS, they all live in their own little bubble. They may actually believe Obama is going to win, considering the carp that has been shoveled down their throats by the others on those websites.

Romney is going to win. 330-205, 55% of the vote. It will be a bloodbath for Dems.

So much grief. I shall enjoy it.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

I predict Obama will panic and say something stupid by the end of the day. I mean, more stupid than usual.

hepcat on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

US heads for cliffhanger election

That is London. Good sign, as the Brits rarely get anything right at first ponder.

Limerick on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 2:31 PM

I can only respond to the media’s crass stupidity as follows:

Watch PA.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Remember, folks, McCain outperformed virtually every pollster but Rasmussen.

Ergo, if they show a tie or small Obama lead, we’re good.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Different election dynamics. 2008 was two challengers running against one another (and the GOP picked a dud). 2012 has an incumbent. That being said, I don’t buy the poll numbers are as close as the pollsters claim.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Dave in Florida stunned by October party identification.

I’m stunned. I really am not sure what to make of these numbers. If you thought Rasmussen’s September poll of partisan ID was beyond belief, well the October numbers are incredible. To refresh your memory, this poll is conducted monthly and asks 15,000 people what party they are affiliated with. In my Rasmussen Party ID model, I use a 3 month average of these numbers.

The new October number is way beyond anything I was expecting. The new numbers are:

Democrat 33.3%
Republican 39.1%
Independent 27.5%

Dave’s website here.

It’s not going to be close. R+5 is a rout.

Basilsbest on November 5, 2012 at 2:34 PM

I predict Obama will panic and say something stupid by the end of the day. I mean, more stupid than usual.

hepcat on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Would that be today (Monday) or tomorrow (Tuesday)?

Hard to beat the past couple of days. Obama says “vote for revenge”. Messina says “Romney’s talking about revenge voting”.

I’m waiting for the official decree that the election is null and void.

Timothy S. Carlson on November 5, 2012 at 2:35 PM

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