Rasmussen in Ohio: 49/49 tie

posted at 12:41 pm on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Buckeye State continues to be the focus of the media and both presidential campaigns — and two new polls out today show Ohio a dead heat.  Rasmussen’s latest poll shows a 49/49 tie, in a series that has shown the state a virtual tie since the general-election campaign began last spring:

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. …

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.

The bad news for Romney?  According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted.  Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008.  Regardless, Election Day voters are much more Republican; 71% of Republicans will go to the booth tomorrow, while slightly over half of all Democrats have already voted.  Among independents, 40% have voted early.

In Rasmussen’s poll, that may also be bad news for Romney, depending on which 60% of independents remain.  He trails among unaffiliated voters in this poll by eight, 50/42, although 17% say they could still change their minds.  However, the gender gap has been completely neutralized, with 52/45 splits among men and women breaking in opposite directions.  Obama has a favorable job approval rating, 51/48, in an R+2 sample (37/39/24).

The University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll shows Obama with a slight edge after allocating the leaners:

In the race for president, after allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race in Ohio stands at President Barack Obama 50.0 percent and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 48.5 percent.  Other candidates on the ballot receive 1.5 percent.

UC didn’t supply any crosstabs or sample information.  Clearly, Ohio could go in either direction, and it will be the strength of the ground game that matters.

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If all that you said is true, why would they let Gary Johnson win?

Third Party is a synomym for Third Place.

Akzed on November 5, 2012 at 1:06 PM

If a vote is rigged there are two wise choices. Either don’t vote or else vote for somebody they won’t let win and force the bad guys to perpetrate their anti-American crimes and cheat you so that their Karma or or soul, at least, will suffer the penalty.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Rasmussen reported that Republicans have a party ID advantage of 5.8 for October 2012.

Link

Nick_Angel on November 5, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Rasmussen’s latest Party Id: R+5.8% (all time record)

The media is going to be stunned come 10PM Tuesday evening.

kevinkristy on November 5, 2012 at 12:45 PM

They are not registered by party affiliation in OH.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:02 PM

So that means that the Obama 23% lead in early voting reported by Rassmusen is sort of an exit poll where people tell who they voted for?

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 1:06 PM

The R+5.8% from Rasmussen above is nation wide.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

I have a question. These people are voting, but no one knows who the voters voted for. They just tabulate X Democrats, Y Republican and I independents. Is it assumed that all early votes placed by Democrats are votes for Obama? Conversely, all the republican voters voted for Romney? I know more democrats that are voting Romney than republican voting for Obama. Fact is, I don’t know any republicans voting for Obama, but I do know democrats that have voted for Romney.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Yes, that is the assumption being made in most cases. In OH, though, because there is no registration by party, the assumption is being made based on WHERE the votes are coming from. In Dem counties (those carried by Obama), it’s way down…in McCain counties, it’s way up.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

TROLLCOT almost not needed on this thread :)… I’s like self-banning day for trolls, after the meltdown of the canadian member of parliament on the other thread :)

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Dave Dryrot? What did I miss?

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Thanks, sad as it is for HA not following their own anti-trolling guidelines.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Who said they are not following the guidlelines? It’s troll meltting down on their own on the other threads, mainly because of lack of attention….it’s like self-immolation, nobody helped them or anything, they are doing it all on their own…complete with ad hominem that I have never seen here ina. Hile…the canadian member of parliament basically called half the posters fhere f**g morons, and they continued to ignore him gracefully, for most part….

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I was close enough. Don’t forget to vote for Romney twice after you vote for Gary.

El_Terrible on November 5, 2012 at 1:15 PM

GALLUP: R 49% O 48%

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 1:15 PM

They are not registered by party affiliation in OH.
jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:02 PM

So that means that the Obama 23% lead in early voting reported by Rassmusen is sort of an exit poll where people tell who they voted for?

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I would assume yes.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Gonna be a L O N G day! I just had election call #5 since about 8a.m. REDREDRED Western VA is staying REDREDRED!

graywaiter on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

It would be schaenfreude if Barky would finish with 47%, just saying.

D-fusit on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Oh, man, that thing way too sweet, and…milky :)…

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Devil’s Cut Bourbon for me on election night!

ShadowsPawn on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Drop 1% Obama is at 47

Indys going to mitt = win

Conservative4ev on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I totally agree…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Springteen/barry bomb in madison

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Romney is going to win Ohio… When the early/absentee votes in Ohio (actual votes) show a net loss of 260,000 votes for Obama in Ohio which is equivalent to Obama vote victory in 2008 then Obama is going to lose Ohio for certain…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

It may actually be more than that. I understand that Ohio purged its voter rolls of over 400,000 voters, not eligle, moved or dead, etc. I wonder how many of those 400,000, actually “voted” in 2008?

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:16 PM

I’m getting an ulcer.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Lay off the White Russian’s.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 1:05 PM

It was my one treat to enjoy while listening to libs wallow in defeat.

This Rassmussen Poll is messing with me.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

You are still a free American and you can fight any which way you please. I know you’ll fight until the last stand.

Your vote is misguided, not by principle, but by math. I know how you argue, contrary to most harlots, incl. those who vote for Romney. He won’t be the panacea he’s imagined to be. At least he loves his land and will roll up his sleeves to create jobs and address the debt, halt the catapulting toward the abyss.

Never let anyone deter you, no matter the name-calling. If the right and the left hate you, you’re a special person.

You’ll throw your vote away but I’ll like you anyway, for fighting the good fight.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

I used to call myself an independent conservative, then switched to conservative leaning libertarian because it’s more specific. I’ve never claimed to be a “true conservative”. I think in the future maybe I’ll start calling myself an independent libertarian.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

“Conservative leaning libertarianvoting for Gary Johnson” is exactly equal to “liberal democrat voting for Obama” in tomorrow’s election. The time to lay out your core beliefs was back in the primaries. Tomorrow is the time to swallow your pill and get rid of the marxist in chief.

UpTheCreek on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

I’m getting an ulcer.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

I have to admit even though I predicted 295EV for Romney, the thought of another 4 years of the unicorn prince’s trillion $ deficits, over-regulation, and energy strangulation makes my stomach hurt.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

If a vote is rigged there are two wise choices. Either don’t vote or else vote for somebody they won’t let win and force the bad guys to perpetrate their anti-American crimes and cheat you so that their Karma or or soul, at least, will suffer the penalty.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Aww, is that you, Dalai Lama?

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

voting may be down in some places but we broke 2008 early voting records here in Harris County (Houston) and that enthusiasm wasn’t for Obama. That story about the polling location being over run by the NAACP here in Houston was about them stuffing a black precinct with ballots for EV counts. All of the black precincts bucked the increasing trend in the county.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 1:18 PM

I’m getting an ulcer.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

You are not alone.

earlgrey133 on November 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Doesn’t matter what you call yourself. This is the fact:

“Conservative leaning libertarianvoting for Gary Johnson” is exactly equal to “liberal democrat voting for Obama” in tomorrow’s election. The time to lay out your core beliefs was back in the primaries. Tomorrow is the time to swallow your pill and get rid of the marxist in chief.

UpTheCreek on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Please vote for Gary Johnson.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 12:46 PM

“Not gonna do it. Wouldn’t be prudent, not the thing to do.”
GHWB

Tenwheeler on November 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

FirstBoot on November 5, 2012 at 12:50 PM

no need to ask, he also posts under a similar name like gravity stone or something like that

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 12:56 PM

That’s not true.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

GALLUP: R 49% O 48%

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Is that D+11, while Rasmussen shows R+6?

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 1:20 PM

What polls do not accurately gage is the feeling of a nation, as a whole. As i wrote earlier, today reminds me exactly of the way the country felt the day before my first vote on Election Day 1980.

I feel great about tomorrow.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 1:20 PM

You are still a free American and you can fight any which way you please. I know you’ll fight until the last stand.

Your vote is misguided, not by principle, but by math. I know how you argue, contrary to most harlots, incl. those who vote for Romney. He won’t be the panacea he’s imagined to be. At least he loves his land and will roll up his sleeves to create jobs and address the debt, halt the catapulting toward the abyss.

Never let anyone deter you, no matter the name-calling. If the right and the left hate you, you’re a special person.

You’ll throw your vote away but I’ll like you anyway, for fighting the good fight.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Well said.

davidk on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Yes, that is the assumption being made in most cases. In OH, though, because there is no registration by party, the assumption is being made based on WHERE the votes are coming from. In Dem counties (those carried by Obama), it’s way down…in McCain counties, it’s way up.

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Then maybe I need to go back and revise my election prediction. I put Romney at 315 EV and 54.23 popular. It might be greater than 315 EV and 60% popular.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

What none of these take into account is, How many Dems crossed over to vote for Romney? The list of 2008 voters for the Marxist Messiah, will not be anywhere near what it was in 2008! The Polls are pretty much useless at this point & the question will be, who the votes were cast for?
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

the canadian member of parliament basically called half the posters fhere f**g morons, and they continued to ignore him gracefully, for most part….

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:13 PM

I meant that HA has a guideline against trolling.

On the Canadian guy, he lost his bid and loses here because he hasn’t learned that the one who calls the other names first, loses the argument. Eh, he’s the ‘erudite’ one.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Is that D+11, while Rasmussen shows R+6?

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 1:20 PM

D+11 poll might have been CNN

El_Terrible on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted. Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008. Regardless, Election Day voters are much more Republican; 71% of Republicans will go to the booth tomorrow, while slightly over half of all Democrats have already voted. Among independents, 40% have voted early.

According to Chris Wallace’s interview, 557,177 Democrats and 480,143 Republicans voted early in Ohio. If all the Democrats voted for Obama and all the Republicans voted for Romney (probably close to the truth), Obama would lead the partisan early voters by 53.7 – 46.3, only a 7.4% lead (not 23 points). Methinks some people are lying to Rasmussen about their early voting.

Also, if 71% of Republicans will vote on Election day, those 480,143 early-voting Republicans represent only 29% of total Republican turnout, which would be estimated at 480,143 / 0.29 = 1.656 million. If the 557,177 early-voting Democrats were half the total Democrat turnout, the total Democrat turnout would 1.114 million. This would lead to a Republican turnout advantage of 542,000 votes, which would be hard for Democrats to overcome by winning independents.

However, these numbers seem fishy. This would result in a total partisan turnout of only 2.77 million (R + D), and if Independents were 30% of the electorate, total overall turnout would be slightly under 4 million. However, total turnout in 2008 in Ohio was over 6 million voters, so it does seem like either (1) people were lying to Rasmussen about their early voting, or (2) Rasmussen included in its sample a disproportionate number of early voters.

With a sample skewed toward early voters, and a tied topline result, how can anyone conclude anything from this poll?

Steve Z on November 5, 2012 at 1:22 PM

The election comes down to a couple of neighbors on a cul-de-sac in Lima, Ohio.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 12:48 PM

That’s too bad, cause the last time I was around Lima, people were afraid to come out of their houses cause of the thug takeover.

loudmouth883 on November 5, 2012 at 1:22 PM

That’s not true.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Most of us here know that – we respect your beliefs and agree with most or many. Just not on your choice to waste ammunition defending a beachhead that’s already been lost when you could be helping to win the battle that’s still raging.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:22 PM

On the Canadian guy, he lost his bid and loses here because he hasn’t learned that the one who calls the other names first, loses the argument. Eh, he’s the ‘erudite’ one.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Plantation owner davidk is a puke a human being. In fact, seems to be a good description of most Americans at this time.

astonerii on November 5, 2012 at 12:34 PM

davidk on November 5, 2012 at 1:23 PM

By the way, some info for the trolls who think zer0 got a huge bounce for the way he is handling the sandy crisis? The people who are actually effected by this tragedy, are NOT happy and the news soundbites are heartbreaking. This will NOT help zer0.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:24 PM

I’m not your typical tin-foil hat kind of guy but:

When blogs like HA noticed the overwhelming independant support for Romney although polls were calling “close races with Obama ahead,” I wondered how long it would take for the “less ethical” pollsters to start “spiking” independant numbers. Funny how those “toss-up” states suddenly showed an independant swing to Obama.

When we look at Ohio, it is obvious Obama is already down 260,000 votes, and with a 1.7:1 ratio of republican to democrat votes still remaining on election day, it would take virtually ALL independants to vote for Obama (at least in the 80%+ range).

Not happening. Someone is on serious crack.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I’ve got to wonder where the rat-eared wonder thought he’d be campaigning today. I’m guessing that Wisconsin or Iowa were considered possibilities. And certainly not having to drag around Bruce Springsteen, Bill Clinton, and Colon Powell since nobody is going to show up just to hear the same warmed over socialism we’ve all heard so much we could probably recite the speech verbatim.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Is that D+11, while Rasmussen shows R+6?

spiritof61 on November 5, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Rasmussen isn’t showing R+6 in their polling. They are showing R+6 in their party affiliation tracking.

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I’m getting an ulcer.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

I’m with you. And it’s not even Tuesday yet.

ConArtist in Tampa on November 5, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Also – keep in mind that there is no count of D/R/I turnout from any election. Only exit polls – which are not accurate – can be bad either way. There are easy ways to game the “RCP” map either way.

It’s been speculated for a long time that more dems will answer the phone for polls, maybe they are home more often. I don’t know that that is true.

One of the bottom lines is that it that polling is a black art. Notice that there is no one polling organization that gets things right from election to election. Where is zogby – “The accurate pollster from 2000″?

The bottom line is that the only thing you can pick out of polls is enthusiasm, and splits. This and voter registration. You can make some assumptions and predictions based on these.

Just as all of the news-media has finally admitted that there are different models – Romney campaign, and Obama Campaign – notice they haven’t said which is wrong – I have an idea on model.

Even turnout – there isn’t a poll out there, when polling only for enthusiasm or turnout, suggests that there will be a 2008 type turnout. More Dem crossover than Republican. Independents break for Romney.

That is the only model you need to think of. Plug your own numbers in. I don’t think it would be easy to argue against anything except turnout. The crossover gap could be small, the indy gap could be small. But nobody in their right mind, even David Axlerod is going to say that the crossovers and indies aren’t going for Romney in at least a small way.

So the only argument is turnout. Do you believe there will be a 2008 or better type of turnout – as in Dem+ lots? Or do yo believe there will be a 2004 type turnout – as in R+ lots…. No. Really. Does anyone believe this is 2008?

I think we all know the answer. This has been over for a couple of weeks. Both campaigns have known it. All that is going on now is pre-positioning of the lawyers to try to explain away a Romney win.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I have to admit even though I predicted 295EV for Romney, the thought of another 4 years of the unicorn prince’s trillion $ deficits, over-regulation, and energy strangulation makes my stomach hurt.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Won’t happen, unless most American voters are suicidal/utterly stupid. I think many are, but the level isn’t that high, yet.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Had to turn off the lsm…they are depressing me to no end…will turn me into eeyore

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Oct R-39.1% D-33.3% I-27.5%, for a Republican advantage of +5.8%.

Rasmussen in Ohio: 49/49 tie

jus’ sayin’: It appears the Left is pulling the Limbaugh 2008 ‘Operation Chaos’ strategy…

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Not sure what you’re saying – but Rasmussen has a good track record of nailing this party affiliation, going back to 2004.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

The R+5.8% from Rasmussen above is nation wide.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

I know. I think it’s important to bring up, however.

Nick_Angel on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

What none of these take into account is, How many Dems crossed over to vote for Romney?

An extremely interesting question!!! There are a lot of coal miners in Ohio, who probably are registered Democrats out of traditional allegiance to their unions. But given what Obama has done to demand for their product due to regulations on coal-fired power plants, and what Romney has promised during debates, a lot of coal miners (registered Democrats) could be voting for Romney.

Steve Z on November 5, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Most of us here know that – we respect your beliefs and agree with most or many. Just not on your choice to waste ammunition defending a beachhead that’s already been lost when you could be helping to win the battle that’s still raging.

peski on November 5, 2012 at 1:22 PM

I think FR lives in a blue, blue state, and his vote won’t matter. Thus, can vote his libertarian mind.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:27 PM

What none of these take into account is, How many Dems crossed over to vote for Romney? The list of 2008 voters for the Marxist Messiah, will not be anywhere near what it was in 2008! The Polls are pretty much useless at this point & the question will be, who the votes were cast for?
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 5, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I’m not sure where I read this but I read around 13% of zer0s 2008 supporters, are crossing over nov 6th. If thats true…. wow

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Just do not get all the “tie” polls.

albill on November 5, 2012 at 1:29 PM

I’m not sure where I read this but I read around 13% of zer0s 2008 supporters, are crossing over nov 6th. If thats true…. wow

… and factor in the 6% loss of Republicans cross voting, it is still a NET gain of 7% for the republicans.

And how is it again, that Obama is going to win?

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Good question. Based on the number of carpet-bombed threads over the last 6 months, I’d vote yes, but that’s just me.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 12:54 PM

.
I classify by trolls, mobys, and loons – FR is in the last category but still …

TROLLCOT

Pretty much which is strange. Don’t know what ‘s happening in Va! though. Some mentioned that that there is movement there too, for O, could be Sandy effects, don’t know, if he’s gaining indies there too. But so far, yes, OH looks singular in that, which makes absoluely no sense. What’s so special about the OH independents :).

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 1:06 PM

.
Ed is in full Eeyore mode.

The bad news for Romney? According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted. Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008. Regardless, Election Day voters are much more Republican; 71% of Republicans will go to the booth tomorrow, while slightly over half of all Democrats have already voted. Among independents, 40% have voted early.

In Rasmussen’s poll, that may also be bad news for Romney, depending on which 60% of independents remain. He trails among unaffiliated voters in this poll by eight, 50/42, although 17% say they could still change their minds. However, the gender gap has been completely neutralized, with 52/45 splits among men and women breaking in opposite directions. Obama has a favorable job approval rating, 51/48, in an R+2 sample (37/39/24).

Rasmussen’s Ohio polling is full of inconsistencies with the numbers reported by the state. And letting the 40% of independents have voted early pass without noting these responses are on an “honor system” (i.e. self reporting to the pollsters by people claiming to be independents)?

FULL Eeyore !!!

As I asked Ed above, what percentage of respondents are pollsters seeing in the last week?

I have held the same position for the last three months.

9% participation rate puts MOE at +/- 25% …

… but pollsters are the new alchemists and are selling the idea their wizardry turns sh1te into gold.

If someone is falling for the pollsters’ sh1te … then they are turning it into gold. ;->

PolAgnostic on November 5, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Please vote for Gary Johnson Obama.
FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 12:46 PM

FIFY.

smellthecoffee on November 5, 2012 at 1:31 PM

This just up

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Looncot?

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Won’t happen, unless most American voters are suicidal/utterly stupid. I think many are, but the level isn’t that high, yet.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Yet….

That’s my fear, even with a Romney win. No matter how resounding Romney wins, I feel that we’ve just managed to plug another hole in the dam.

UpTheCreek on November 5, 2012 at 1:32 PM

If you are depressed today..

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory.

November 3……2008

IlikedAUH2O on November 5, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Really. Does anyone believe this is 2008?
oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:26 PM </blockquote

I do! For Romney/Ryan :)

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I have to ask – Is Floatingcrock a troll?

FirstBoot on November 5, 2012 at 12:50 PM

No. He’s a concerned patriot.

If Romney doesn’t deliver, and there’s a good chance he won’t due to a number of reasons, the country will move in Floatingrock’s direction.

Dack Thrombosis on November 5, 2012 at 1:35 PM

If Romney doesn’t deliver, and there’s a good chance he won’t due to a number of reasons, the country will move in Floatingrock’s direction.

Dack Thrombosis on November 5, 2012 at 1:35 PM

We’ll become disruptive lunatics that can’t get anything done and explain our own lack of progress away with wild conspiracy theories?

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Sorry to urinate on everyone’s parade here but party registration means squat in election cycles when only one side has primaries. Hundreds of thousands change their affiliation to vote in closed primaries – often, with malicious intent. D+2 should be the assumed voting model, everything above that is a God’s gift. Take into account the edge Donks have with all their GOTV shenanigans and rampant voting fraud, and Romney has quite a handicap to overcome. Let’s hope he does.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

President Obama up 3 points in just released WMUR poll in New Hampshire … that is a 3 point upswing for the President in just a few days ..

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Thanks to Ed & this post we are all eeyores now.

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 1:39 PM

My parents have lived in coal country Ohio for about 38 years. Parents are deeply involved in R politics. Dad’s an office holder. It’s anecdotal, but my mom’s good friend is the head of the county board of elections. This board of elections person is telling my mom that Romney is looking stong in early voting AND her colleagues in other county board of elections offices around Ohio tell her they are seeing the same thing. Pretty comfortable Romney will take the state. Don’t get discouraged; we’re almost there.

BTW — I doubt many Amish vote. Would depend on what the reigning elders for the individual church groups deem permissible. Heard there were actually more Amish in OIHO these days than in Pa.

jmfe on November 5, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Do you think its possible that the pollsters (the serious ones) are afraid to really tell it like it is for fear of being called racists? I mean, the really good pollsters, who try to get the real numbers, are generally right leaning.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Let’s hope he does.

Archivarix on November 5, 2012 at 1:38 PM

I think were talking close to even. I think the Rasmussen and the Gallup estimation of R at +4-6% is unrealistic. At even all the way to D+4 it’s Romney in big win. To near-tie, Obama has to get 2008 type percentage splits, maybe higher.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:42 PM

What none of these take into account is, How many Dems crossed over to vote for Romney?

More to the point, where are all those Republicans that voted for for the rat-eared wonder in 2008? Are they sticking with their choice?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 1:44 PM

That’s my fear, even with a Romney win. No matter how resounding Romney wins, I feel that we’ve just managed to plug another hole in the dam.

UpTheCreek on November 5, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Why I always type – celebrate, but only briefly, then begin the watch/fight with Romney.

The leftist rats are angry and will end up this.

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:45 PM

I have to ask – Is Floatingcrock a troll?

FirstBoot on November 5, 2012 at 12:50 PM

A “True Conservative” or Libertarian who refuses to support a RINO

El_Terrible on November 5, 2012 at 12:51 PM

In other words a kamikaze…

How did that work out for Japan in WWII?

William Eaton on November 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Rasmussen is afraid to use his own party affiliation numbers because they are unprecedented. Most other pollsters are playing a game, some in league with Obama. Showing a close race is a desperate attempt to motivate Obama’s base.

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 1:07 PM

This is it exactly, and it is what every poll has been about in the last couple days. Motivate the base, try their damnedest to suppress GOP turnout.

IT’S NOT WORKING!

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

KCD …think for a minute please … most polling companies like to make money and to have a reputation for being good forecasters …they have no incentive to predict things wrong …forget your right wing lunatic fringe conspiracy theories

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 1:47 PM

The other big, giant takeaway from any of the polling is the incumbent below 50%. All of the freaky samples, checking internals, “how did this happen?”, “how did that happen?”, none show Obama above 50%.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Do you think its possible that the pollsters (the serious ones) are afraid to really tell it like it is for fear of being called racists? I mean, the really good pollsters, who try to get the real numbers, are generally right leaning.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:41 PM

IMO, they just don’t know how to read the tea leaves for this election. You have an awful lot of stuff that doesn’t lend itself to the traditional models.

1. Early voting was big this election cycle. Some voting was done even before the first debate.

2. 2008 was big for Obama but 2010 was a rejection of his agenda. How do you factor in four years of declining support?

3. States that should be safe are in play or at least the polling suggests they are.

4. There was no hurricane bump for the rat-eared wonder but has the subsequent days of watching those people suffer hurt?

In short, the pollsters will not admit they just don’t know but that is the case.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 1:49 PM

If I try to put my analyst hat on for a second and try to gauge what Romney’s been doing (and maybe this is obvious to most), it seems like we’re looking at about a dead heat or slight deficit in Ohio based on polling – not necessarily turnout in the yet-to-be-decided battle between Democrat machinery and GOP enthusiasm.

Meanwhile, the other midwest states are drifting our way, which is why Romney’s spending time there. Could we lose Ohio by a whisker and pick up one or more of the other big ones? I wouldn’t doubt it. Obama’s not campaigning tomorrow, so Romney’s going back to Ohio then. Might as well with the free day.

The Count on November 5, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Mozza wrote:

The bad news for Romney? According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted. Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008.

Of course they don’t! I guess Rasmussen is in the tank for Obama too.
Just read NotCoach and PatriotGal2257

mlindroo on November 5, 2012 at 1:50 PM

TROLLCOTT!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 1:51 PM

This is it exactly, and it is what every poll has been about in the last couple days. Motivate the base, try their damnedest to suppress GOP turnout.

IT’S NOT WORKING!

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I totally agree. But, IMHO, I think it usually backfires. If I think for one second, that obama will will, that would motivate me even more to go vote!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:51 PM

I would be willing to bet that we will find out that the polls kept Obama close because of his race. I imagine it will turn out that a lot of those polled did not feel comfortable telling pollsters that they weren’t going to vote for the historical first black guy. I believe it is termed the Wilder effect?

Romney 52 Obama 47

Will Obama claim his Kenyan citizenship when the Benghazi hearings begin under President Romney?

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Oh my

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Y’know, I’m wondering if I’m the only poster not sweating Ohio. Maybe there’s this sense of odd detachment when I’m plugging numbers in my calculator. Who knows? But every time I run the numbers based the election so far in Ohio, I get a 200K-500K advantage to Romney.

That’s even with the +6 for Obama independant “swing.”

If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I just think there is far too much hype over the polling.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

More to the point, where are all those Republicans that voted for for the rat-eared wonder in 2008? Are they sticking with their choice?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I just know one, Colin Powell.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Well, when you put it that way it makes sense. Also, I like the the fact that 3 points, if not all 4 points of your explanation, looks good for Romney too!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Romney 52 Obama 47

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Right on the money.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:56 PM

jmfe on November 5, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Not quite yet, but close. Pa. still has more, but they’re more widely spread out than they used to be. A lot have moved from Lancaster into the Lewisburg area of central PA and out west, near the Ohio border.
And the Lancaster County (plus those in adjacent counties) are politically aware… and they vote.

either orr on November 5, 2012 at 1:56 PM

If a vote is rigged there are two wise choices. Either don’t vote or else vote for somebody they won’t let win and force the bad guys to perpetrate their anti-American crimes and cheat you so that their Karma or or soul, at least, will suffer the penalty. FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 1:12 PM

So you got this conspiracy to destroy my soul all figured out huh?

Not voting Loosertarian means I go to hell? Is the corollary that only Loosertarians go to heaven?

Not voting Loosertarian forces the bad guys to be bad, eh? Isn’t that like blaming Muslim riots on a movie?

Akzed on November 5, 2012 at 1:57 PM

#trollcott

MidniteRambler on November 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. I just think there is far too much hype over the polling.

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Nope. I’m not sweating Ohio. By any model, Romney wins. Early voting is actually bearing out that this is not 2008.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Will Obama claim his Kenyan citizenship when the Benghazi hearings begin under President Romney?

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Hahahaha! That is funny, but I’ll bet he would! Maybe, someone who has irrefutable proof, will contact The Donald, and cut a deal for a few million for the records he is asking for!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:59 PM

Nope. I’m not sweating Ohio. By any model, Romney wins. Early voting is actually bearing out that this is not 2008.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Glad to see I’m not the only “idiot” who seems to have figured that one out.

Thanks Oldroy!

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008.

That alone should make one question Rasmussen’s projections. They are not reality based and the model is flawed.

He will either have some serious adjusting to do by tomorrow or lot’s of explaining and excuses afterwards.

The Republican’s GOTV operation in Ohio is a machine that is unequaled.

Marcus Traianus on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Do you think its possible that the pollsters (the serious ones) are afraid to really tell it like it is for fear of being called racists? I mean, the really good pollsters, who try to get the real numbers, are generally right leaning.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:41 PM

.
It doesn’t matter what influences the pollsters.

What matters is the 9% response rate.

I have a degree in engineering. We take lots of science and math courses. We are a registered profession because everything we do can KILL PEOPLE if we do it wrong.

The BULK of what we do is based on empirical results of testing HUGE numbers of different materials, designs and configurations which give us “best fit” equations for what we do …

… and we still allow a safety factor of roughly 1.5 – 2.0 ( 150% – 200% – our Margin Of Error) because we never forget we are using an equation with points scattered both above and below the pretty line/curve on the graph.

We rarely kill people by being rigorous and constantly adding more data points and better testing procedures.

If instead, we ONLY used a randomly selected 9% of all the data points

… and we used a MOE of 3.5% ????

Engineers would be killing 10,000 people/day on a good day.

The pollsters don’t even practice bad “science” where they are using the 9% response rate in the same formulas – because each and every one of them uses their own secret methods to arrive at their numbers.

The only name I trust in “political forecasting” is Michael Barone because he knows this country down to the individual precinct levels … for the last 40 years.

PolAgnostic on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Romney adds campain stop for Tuesday in Cleveland. This does not exactly show confidence that he has OH.

bgibbs1000 on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Newsflash & Realty Check!!!

Fox Business Sr. Corespondent and top Wall St. insider Charles Gasparino just reported that Wall St. CEOs are convinced that Obama is going to win the election. This is based upon his conversations from today. Obama remains a 4:1 favorite…

More real news as it breaks….

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

I voted already here in Michigan (absentee).

That being said, there is definately an enthusiasm advantage for Romney here in Michigan. I wish he would have visited here more.

Yesterday I drove the Van Dyke Corridor from I-696 to Marlette Michigan. Thats nearly 70 miles through Macomb county into the Thumb of Michigan. (I was up there siting in my black powder for opening day). I counted more than 55 Romney lawn signs on that trip and only about 7 for Obama.

GadsdenRattlers on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Oh my

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

OH MY… is right

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election:

Romney for President
The Obama record is unimpressive.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors

AdrianS on November 5, 2012 at 2:06 PM

PolAgnostic on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Yes. Engineers HAVE to be right 99.999% of the time. (see Apollo space program).

Turtle317 on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

PolAgnostic on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Hence, your moniker.

Akzed on November 5, 2012 at 2:07 PM

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