Rasmussen in Ohio: 49/49 tie

posted at 12:41 pm on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The Buckeye State continues to be the focus of the media and both presidential campaigns — and two new polls out today show Ohio a dead heat.  Rasmussen’s latest poll shows a 49/49 tie, in a series that has shown the state a virtual tie since the general-election campaign began last spring:

The final Election 2012 Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Ohio Voters shows Mitt Romney and President Obama each earning 49% support. One percent (1%) favors some other candidate in the race, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. …

The race in Ohio was tied late last week after Romney posted a slight 50% to 48% advantage a few days earlier. The candidates have been within two percentage points of one another or less in every survey in Ohio since May.

The bad news for Romney?  According to Rasmussen’s poll, Obama has a 23-point lead among those who have already voted.  Those numbers don’t match up to the early-voting numbers shown by Ohio’s official reports, however, where Republicans have gained over 260,000 in the gap over 2008.  Regardless, Election Day voters are much more Republican; 71% of Republicans will go to the booth tomorrow, while slightly over half of all Democrats have already voted.  Among independents, 40% have voted early.

In Rasmussen’s poll, that may also be bad news for Romney, depending on which 60% of independents remain.  He trails among unaffiliated voters in this poll by eight, 50/42, although 17% say they could still change their minds.  However, the gender gap has been completely neutralized, with 52/45 splits among men and women breaking in opposite directions.  Obama has a favorable job approval rating, 51/48, in an R+2 sample (37/39/24).

The University of Cincinnati’s Ohio Poll shows Obama with a slight edge after allocating the leaners:

In the race for president, after allocation of undecided voters to the candidates they are most likely to support, the presidential race in Ohio stands at President Barack Obama 50.0 percent and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 48.5 percent.  Other candidates on the ballot receive 1.5 percent.

UC didn’t supply any crosstabs or sample information.  Clearly, Ohio could go in either direction, and it will be the strength of the ground game that matters.

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The only name I trust in “political forecasting” is Michael Barone because he knows this country down to the individual precinct levels … for the last 40 years.

PolAgnostic on November 5, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Wow… Barone has predicted, pretty much, a landslide for Romney. I hope ie is spot on!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:09 PM

From Ohio voting data in their spreadsheet release taken early this morning that does not have the last two days of early voting …

Voting in yr 2008 ‘D’ counties is down 114K.
Voting in yr 2008 ‘R’ counties is up 19K.

However, when you apply the 2008 D vs R voting percentages in each county, the R’s have a net 30K additional early votes as compared to 2008. Add whatever factor you like to increased Romney votes vs McCain votes.

The R’s have NOT overcome the 2008 260K gap. Not anywhere close to it. I’d venture a guess at about 40K total. [30 + 8%(114+19)]

Quick math says if Romney wins Tuesday voting 53/47, he wins Ohio.

GOTV OHIO!

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Yep, it will motivate me even more to vote for Romney and to urge everyone to do the same.

The other thing is that vague, amorphous thing called “inevitability.” Who has it now? Answer: It ain’t Obama, and his base knows very well he doesn’t. Hence the tied polls or those which show him in the lead by one percentage point.

Who has looked more presidential? Answer: Again, it ain’t Obama, even with the bomber jacket. Romney has to play it cool for the next 36+ hours and can’t act presidential definitively, of course, but he will and it will be with more class and humble gratitude than Obama would ever know how to muster.

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

If you are depressed today..

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory.
November 3……2008

IlikedAUH2O on November 5, 2012 at 1:32 PM

You deserve a F*** you for this stupid joke…

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Has anybody heard the story about valerie plame? Story says “A chicago lawyer has been negotiating with Iran on behalf of the administration”. The suspiscion is, its plame. Anyone have more info on this? I just caught a little of it on the radio.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:14 PM

I’ve seen stories that it’s Jarrett, not Plame.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I’ve seen stories that it’s Jarrett, not Plame.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Hahahaha! OH MY! Sorry, I meant Jarret and typed Plame. My bad..

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:19 PM

PLEASE dont bombard me for my error! ;)

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:20 PM

I simply cannot fathom how people can continue to support an administration that is hell bent on destroying our country! Its as plain as the nose on your face.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Nothing set in stone about Romney coming to OH tomorrow, after Columbus tonight.

If he does, and it’s Cleveland – not Cincy or Columbus – then that means the legal fight is on, and they’ve been tipped off to something going down in Cuyahoga County

As a few of us have pointed out for the past month, Cuyahoga registration is off by at least 200K.

Voter roll purge and population shifts have made it a near statistical impossibility to match Cuyahoga in 2008.

But the County D Early Votes are only off by under 10K, from ’08, after this weekend.

This is why we read about the R’s talking how Team Barry is eating its Election Day vote; they statistically have to be.

So the fear is Obama is going to magically match his ’08 percentage turnout, which at this point, would be a higher number turnout.

If Romney goes to Columbus or Cincy, then it’s a voter turnout move.

But if Ras is right, might not matter. Cincy turnout will negate Cuyahoga.

budfox on November 5, 2012 at 2:26 PM

From Ohio voting data in their spreadsheet release taken early this morning that does not have the last two days of early voting …

Voting in yr 2008 ‘D’ counties is down 114K.
Voting in yr 2008 ‘R’ counties is up 19K.

However, when you apply the 2008 D vs R voting percentages in each county, the R’s have a net 30K additional early votes as compared to 2008. Add whatever factor you like to increased Romney votes vs McCain votes.

The R’s have NOT overcome the 2008 260K gap. Not anywhere close to it. I’d venture a guess at about 40K total. [30 + 8%(114+19)]

Quick math says if Romney wins Tuesday voting 53/47, he wins Ohio.

GOTV OHIO!

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 2:10 PM

In fact in the last and final Absentee Ballot request update from Ohio in 2012 shows that the democrats lost a total of 125,683 in 2012 compared to 2008 between them requesting 87,769 less ballots than 2008 and the Republicans gaining 37,914 ballots request compared to 2008. Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 votes and just in absentee ballots alone he lost 125,683 votes assuming that all democrats are voting for him…

Here is the link for Ohio absentee ballot request:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

mnjg on November 5, 2012 at 2:28 PM

Please vote for Gary Johnson.

FloatingRock

Sorry liberaltarians, if you want a handout, get in the welfare line. If you want votes in the future, try earning them.

I have to ask – Is Floatingcrock a troll?

FirstBoot

He’s a pouting mental patient.

No. He’s a concerned patriot.

Dack Thrombosis

Concerned patriots don’t waste their votes on third party candidates. That’s what whiny children do. I’ll take it in this case though, because most Gary Johnson voters would be voting for Obama otherwise. That 1/2% might be just enough to swing a close state Romney’s way.

xblade on November 5, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Romney adds campain stop for Tuesday in Cleveland. This does not exactly show confidence that he has OH.
bgibbs1000 on November 5, 2012 at 2:04 PM

It shows that Romney is a closer. Something he undoubtedly learned in all his years of business.

Coffee is for closers!

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 2:32 PM

I’ve seen stories that it’s Jarrett, not Plame.

kingsjester

Well, she IS Iranian. What could possibly go wrong…..

xblade on November 5, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Just heard the radio announcement for Romney coming back to OH on Election Day.

No location announced, other than GOTV effort.

Nothing official. Yet.

budfox on November 5, 2012 at 2:34 PM

The internal numbers from Rasmussen are confusing, and it does not help when U Cinc and SurveyUSA have Barry up by 1.5 and 5. SurveyUSA has a +5 D and MOE of 3.5. But if the numbers are so close. it is all but guaranteed that the results from Ohio will be contested, especially if it is the one that determined the EC outcome.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 2:38 PM

OK, I really don’t understand what’s going on here. Somebody explain this to me. According to Rasmussen and Gallup, both of whom have polled tens of thousands of voters collectively, Party ID has shifted from 2008 to today by about 12 to 14 points. So we can expect the electorate in 2012 to be something similar to what it was in 2010, i.e. R+2 or R+3 compared to the D+8 or D+10 that it as last time. We know for a fact that 90% of R’s are voting R, and 90% of D’s are voting O. So counting just the partisans, not taking into account intensity, Romney is up by 2 or 3 points.

Then . . . all of the polls have found that intensity is on the GOP side this election, with Republicans more enthusiastic and thus more likely to vote than Democrats by 5 or 10 points. So, adding that in, you get another 1 or 2 points for Romney, now he’s up by 3 or 4.

Then, finally, what’s left are the “independents”. Almost every poll has Romney leading independents by 5 to 20 points. I think there may have been a couple of state polls that had Romney even or slightly behind with independents, but the broad picture is that independents are going to vote R by probably about 10 points. A 10 point advantage with independents adds another 1 or 2 or even 3 points to Romney’s edge, so with that, he should be up by 4-6 points.

A 4 to 6 point advantage translates to something like 52-47 Romney in the popular vote, and the edge with independents translates that into possibly even bigger wins in the swing states (they’re called “swing” states because partisans are not numerous enough on either side to control the outcomes in them). So, why does every poll have the race tied? I just can’t understand it.

Progressive Heretic on November 5, 2012 at 2:39 PM

For you Eeyores(yeah, with some of this stuff I feel like one of them too sometimes, but this is good news, considering the source):

If you’ve lost The Wisconsin State Journal, in the most liberal city in Wisconsin, you’ve lost a big supporter.

Sterling Holobyte on November 5, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Ack! For some reason, the link didn’t show.

Here it is: WSJ

Sterling Holobyte on November 5, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I fail to see the optimism in this poll – Romney is down 8 points with indies – what happened to his huge lead with indies? Something does not seem right…

jagdpanther on November 5, 2012 at 2:47 PM

One of Obama’s serious problems, which have hurt his re-election chances, is that he made it public that he is subservient to other nations by bowing down to their leaders. Some may argue that this is his style or that this is a symbol of respect. But it shows how little Obama was willing to take his position in seriousness. By bowing, this is telling “his world citizens” that he is but a servant. Americans have fought long and hard for a position of preeminence in the world. A president is a leader of his country, but not Obama. In most of the photos where Obama is seen bowing, only the Japanese by tradition do not bow in return. So Obama has fallen from high to very low because Americans do not relate at all to their president being subservient to others. Too many of ours have died to help and save countries from despots and tyrants for Americans not to take their place as being proud but honorable in their superiority of good. As for me, I am voting for Romney; a truly HONEST and HONORABLE man.

AdrianS on November 5, 2012 at 2:50 PM

On this gut check, nerve rendering day, this made me laugh out loud:
http://misfitpolitics.co/2012/06/obama-is-a-sissy-lets-try-to-change-that/

cptacek on November 5, 2012 at 2:57 PM

For you Eeyores(yeah, with some of this stuff I feel like one of them too sometimes, but this is good news, considering the source):

If you’ve lost The Wisconsin State Journal, in the most liberal city in Wisconsin, you’ve lost a big supporter.

Sterling Holobyte on November 5, 2012 at 2:41 PM

If Romney lost Ohio, and the fact that he is going there on election day shows that he is worried, the two paths are
1. CO, IA + WI
2. CO +PA

not impossible but hard.
WI: Scott Walker, a GOP State House,that native son status of Ryan, a battled tested and well oiled ground game, endorsements from Bart Starr and Wisconsin State Journal.

IA:latest poll Romney +1. All 4 newspapers there endorsed Romney, but Romney/Ryan spent much less time there than Barry.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 3:13 PM

On this gut check, nerve rendering day, this made me laugh out loud:
http://misfitpolitics.co/2012/06/obama-is-a-sissy-lets-try-to-change-that/

cptacek on November 5, 2012 at 2:57 PM

Excellent, thanks for the laugh.

Norky on November 5, 2012 at 3:14 PM

Does this sound familiar? “Dude…… I`m nervous.

ThePrez on November 5, 2012 at 3:30 PM

wednesday night on Fox

Bill O’Reilly
talking points – states the obvious
positive accessment with Laura Inghram
Miss Ham cleans the floor with Juan Williams
the distinguished Charles Krauthammer gives insightful analysis
Brit Hume reverses course and says “told you so”
Dennis Miller comes off a bender and get’s us all laughing
happy days are here again

sean hannity
goes on for 10 minutes on dirty air and water
Ann Colter discusses why Obama’s minions couldn’t steal the election
Barone confirms his prediction
Morris grins from ear to ear and tells Sean he owes him a steak dinner
Monica Crowley bi@ch slaps Alan Combs

Greta Van Sustern
late breaking news – someone in the state dept rats on Benghazi
her “former white house foriegn affairs adviser goes on for 15 minutes)
Donald Trump talks about how his college transcripts challenge led to Obama’s downfall
newly developing riots in the streets of major urban areas, philly, cleveland, detroit after swing states go red
Geraldo banters how it’s the end of an era for the common American

The Five
late night repeat
Gutfeld and Bolling take down an abusive Beckel for insulting Kimberly with a sexist remark after his boy goes down in flames
Dana stands on the table trying to stay above the fray
this sounds like wonderful tv

now if you are feeling more masochistic
you can turn in to msDNC

audiotom on November 5, 2012 at 4:02 PM

I’m not watching TV tomorrow, I’ll be holding my breath!
Just imagine, a President who won’t be frequenting the golf course, bowing to foreign leaders & apologizing for America.
A First Lady that won’t be taking lavish trips on the taxpayers dime, or telling us we have to eat broccoli and carrots.
Gone will be Comrade Axelrod, Big Sis, Partying Hillary, & dopey Joe.
I can dream, can’t I?

Belle on November 5, 2012 at 4:35 PM

I would point out that this poll isn’t accurate to 1% of the vote. In other words statistical noise would vary it from 50-48 Romney to 49-49. IN other words if the numbers were 49.5-48.5 Romney in reality you would get these 2 results but a 1% win is a 1% win.

Note to ED. You need to ease up on the tea leaves. You don’t have the ability to check into early voting, independents who are still out there etc, and start calculating your own result.

I would say with and R+2 number you have a fair assessment of Ohio and Romney is up by 1% based opn the last 2 polls. People aren’t really moving like you think. That is statistical noise ESPECIALLY in the direction of the incumbant.

Conan on November 5, 2012 at 5:23 PM

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 3:13 PM

New Hampshire can sustitute for Iowa.

The Key is you have to have Ohio or Wisconsin unless you have some outlier like PA or even MN.

Obama must win Wisconsin AND Ohio or he will lose based on current projections for states more solid than that.

Conan on November 5, 2012 at 5:26 PM

So ask yourself, what would the founding fathers do?

Please vote for Gary Johnson.

FloatingRock on November 5, 2012 at 12:46 PM

They would kill Gary Johnson.

The FF’s would be horrified by abortion. Gary Johnson would chain himself to the fence at a planned parenthood clinic, which would make it easier for Jefferson, Washington, Franklin and Paine to use him as a bayonet dummy and then they’d burn it all down.

Alberta_Patriot on November 5, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Please vote for Gary Johnson.

FloatingRock

…take a break for a day or two F R and let people try to right the boat…than start bailing wednesday again…ok?

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

So ask yourself, what would the founding fathers do?

Please vote for Gary Johnson.

FloatingRock

Sorry, if you want a handout, get in the welfare line. Next time run someone who can earn votes instead of someone you believe should win for merely showing up.

xblade on November 5, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Ha ha. No.

Don’t your readers ever feel deceived by your horribly cherry-picked data? I guess they’re too busy doing mathematical backflips trying to make the numbers look more favorable.

Constantine on November 6, 2012 at 2:49 AM

Ha ha. No.

Don’t your readers ever feel deceived by your horribly cherry-picked data? I guess they’re too busy doing mathematical backflips trying to make the numbers look more favorable.

Constantine on November 6, 2012 at 2:49 AM

Do you have sampling data for us?

Didn’t think so.

bmmg39 on November 6, 2012 at 6:04 PM

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