Politico: Republicans likely to keep — or extend — House majority

posted at 10:41 am on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

For those who want to read the last-minute tea leaves, here are a couple of significant-but-indirect indicators of how tomorrow may go.  First, Politico joins the Washington Post this week in predicting that not only will Democrats fail to win enough House seats to win control again, they may end up losing more seats to the GOP:

Nancy Pelosi has spent much of the past two years proclaiming that Democrats had a great shot at reclaiming the House and returning the speaker’s gavel to her hands.

But her drive to regain the majority for Democrats is on the verge of a complete collapse. Democrats are expected to pick up five seats at best — a fraction of the 25 they need. On the eve of the election, some party officials are privately worried that Democrats might even lose ground and drop one or two seats to the Republican majority.

It would mark an epic failure for a party that has a legitimate shot at keeping the presidency and the Senate on Tuesday. The inability of House Democrats to pick off a good number of seats from one of the most unpopular House majorities in modern history will cause a lot of soul-searching in the party come Wednesday.

I wrote about this in the Green Room on Friday.  The GOP won the current majority with a big turnout at the voting booth, and a switch in support from independents.  Each one of these seats has to be won again by Republicans in order for them to hold their majority.  What does that tell us about the likely voter turnout tomorrow — and the direction they are going — if media analysts believe Republicans might  actually increase their majority?  It sounds as if the Congressional race voters will turn out and vote pretty much the way they did in 2010, not 2008, and that puts the electorate models of most pollsters far out of range.

Democrats have insisted that the pollsters have gotten it right, and that turnout will return to 2008 levels, despite numerous surveys showing Republican enthusiasm far outstripping that of Democrats in this cycle.  If so, though, would their candidates distance themselves like this from their national party leaders?

They’ve played up their folksy demeanor, campaigned on local issues and gone to great lengths to proclaim they’re not President Barack Obama’s acolytes.

But red-state Democratic Senate candidates are still trying to survive the anti-Obama wave that started in 2010 and is threatening to wash away Democrats from the Great Plains to the Mountain West.

Of course, these are red-state Democrats … but you’re not seeing swing-state Democrats embracing Obama much these days, either.  If the electorate in 2012 was going to resemble the 2008 model, you’d see incumbents like Bob Casey and Claire McCaskill rushing to embrace an incumbent President at the top of their ticket.  Instead, they’re attempting to convince voters of their independence from the White House.

These are still indirect indicators, but the House majority numbers are particularly interesting. If Republicans hold their seats from 2010 and add to them, it’s because the turnout model will look roughly the same, as will voter enthusiasm — and that’s very bad news for Democrats, and not just Nancy Pelosi.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

That’s such an attractive picture of Nanzi.

She looks like she is riding her enormous gavel.

CorporatePiggy on November 5, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Pay – Per – View worthy. I’d pay $100 to see that.

VegasRick on November 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Guys? I think I found a way to reduce the national debt…

Browncoatone on November 5, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Hey, all we need to do is charge $51,000 per ticket, and get every man, woman, and child in America to pay, and the debt will be gone, baby, gone!

UltimateBob on November 5, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Isn’t Obamacare wonderful? And to think we have just scratched the surface.

pat on November 5, 2012 at 11:42 AM

We should re-elect a president whom every candidate in his party is running away from and whose signature piece of legislation too many of them won’t discuss.

WTF?

BuckeyeSam on November 5, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Check this out.

It is Rasmussen’s party affiliation tracker. They just updated it for October. Compare October of this year to October of 2008. Personally I expected the gap to close, not widen. Romney will outperform Reagan in the popular vote from 1980.

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

New blood needed in the Speaker chair.
Who ran against J B last time ? Eric Cantor ?

Lucano on November 5, 2012 at 12:01 PM

If this holds than here’s something to look forward to: Nancy Pelosi retiring. After 2 election losses and failure to hold or retake the House most party leaders resign not just their leadership post but also their seat. I hope Pelosi follows that “tradition” because I’d definitely like to see less of her.

JohnAGJ on November 5, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I see that gnarled, liver-spotted arthritic old hand of hers reaching for the Speaker’s gavel, and always falling a little short. “I’ll get you soon my pretty gavel”!

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Maybe Alan West.

DanMan on November 5, 2012 at 11:31 AM

That would be one way to thin the Dem ranks. More than a few would have veins popping at the mere suggestion! Not that I would mind that- my Congresscritter is old and called West disloyal to his race for being a Republican.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 12:05 PM

should run away from Pelosi!!

chai on November 5, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Tsunami Tuesday!

JimK on November 5, 2012 at 12:16 PM

It’s still entertaining that she is the Minority leader after leading her fellow Marxists to one of the worst electoral defeats in history.

CorporatePiggy on November 5, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Nancy Pelosi’s Secret CAIR Fundraiser –

http://frontpagemag.com/2012/robert-spencer/nancy-pelosis-secret-cair-fundraiser/

Pork-Chop on November 5, 2012 at 12:48 PM

“one of the most unpopular House majorities in modern history”

They still don’t get it. The 2010 House was elected for the very purpose of stopping O and the Dem Senate. They were our only defense. The left doesn’t seem to wonder why the country would rush to re-elect “the most unpopular House” again. Does.not.compute.

It will be entertaining to see what Pelosi has to say tomorrow night, to see what kind of verbal gymnastic flips she comes up with to explain the massive re-election of a GOP House really means they are hugely unpopular. And extremist, can’t forget extremist.

I wonder if Dem voters notice O has to bring celebrities to his rallies to attract an audience, and because Dems running for re-election don’t want to appear with him. Romney/Ryan are bringing in tens of thousands to see them, and their rallies are a who’s who of Republicans.

Go Romney Go Ryan!

Mayday on November 5, 2012 at 1:11 PM

If the electorate in 2012 was going to resemble the 2008 model, you’d see incumbents like Bob Casey and Claire McCaskill rushing to embrace an incumbent President at the top of their ticket.

My only quibble with this post is that the two examples are Senators, not members of the House.

Of course, I happen to be fixated on the Senate and the need to make Harry Ried irrelevant.

goflyers on November 5, 2012 at 1:35 PM

trollcott.

MidniteRambler on November 5, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Oh my

Schadenfreude on November 5, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Awwwww, I feel so sorry for Pelosi–OK I am over that already.

j bo on November 5, 2012 at 1:58 PM

The Republicans (hopefully Conservatives) have a REAL chance to increase their House seats and take over the Senate by several seats. Nancy Pelosi is a liar. The Democrats’ plan is always to attempt to preempt Conservatives and fool the public. But no more. No mas. Nein. Not now. Never again. Read this:

Worthwhile reading for the day before the presidential election 2012:

Romney for President
The Obama record is unimpressive.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/332484/mitt-romney-president-editors

AdrianS on November 5, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Feeling a strong bout of House-cleaning coming on. And while we’re at it, Senate-cleaning too.

We get Maryland ads on our VA radio station and it is a laugh to hear Steny Hoyer’s deputy Chris Van Hollen’s ad. Folksy guitar music, soft-voice speaker, talking about how reasonable and friendly and bipartisan Rep. Van Hollen is.

Yeah.

But consider, ensconced in his blue state, he feels that is the tone to take. It still isn’t humility so it would never satisfy me.

Hoyer himself seems to be taking the lay low and let it blow over approach, which saves his ad budget. Worked in ’10, too.

perries on November 5, 2012 at 2:30 PM

The party leadership is totally stuck on STUPID.

Had they embraced the Tea Party instead of shunning them. We would be picking up a dozen or more seats and would definitely take the Senate. We would be wining the Presidency by at least five points. We would outperform the polls just like in 2010.

But no we run the most liberal man in the Republican Party. A man that ran on the platform “That Republican Registration is just a technicality”. I will be more liberal than my opponent why I am running to do more for Planned Parenthood, LGBT, Abortion Rights. This platform in the only race he won. But he did run on it and lose before.

Pure stupidity.

Steveangell on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Check this out.

It is Rasmussen’s party affiliation tracker. They just updated it for October. Compare October of this year to October of 2008. Personally I expected the gap to close, not widen. Romney will outperform Reagan in the popular vote from 1980.

NotCoach on November 5, 2012 at 11:50 AM

That’s one poll I can believe in. Since 2010, GOP has trended higher than the donks. It’s why we’ve won the majority of competitions since then to include the majority of Wisconsin races by comfortable margins, even when the pollsters told us it would be a loss or to close to tell.

AH_C on November 6, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The party leadership is totally stuck on STUPID.

Had they embraced the Tea Party instead of shunning them. We would be picking up a dozen or more seats and would definitely take the Senate. We would be wining the Presidency by at least five points. We would outperform the polls just like in 2010.

But no we run the most liberal man in the Republican Party. A man that ran on the platform “That Republican Registration is just a technicality”. I will be more liberal than my opponent why I am running to do more for Planned Parenthood, LGBT, Abortion Rights. This platform in the only race he won. But he did run on it and lose before.

Pure stupidity.

Steveangell on November 5, 2012 at 3:54 PM

Yup. The GOPe will try to betray us. I can only wish the majority of the House will grow a pair and replace Boehner/Cantor. West for one would suit me fine and heck, put Michelle Bachmann in the leadership mix.

AH_C on November 6, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Comment pages: 1 2