Internal polls: Romney up one in OH, two in IA, three in NH, tied in PA and WI
posted at 5:27 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit
The skeptical view of leaking these is that it smacks of what desperate campaigns do when they know they’re losing. Remember Tom Barrett? He wanted the world to believe, contra nearly all of the independent polling, that he and Scott Walker were dead even two weeks out from the recall election this summer. That made perfect sense in his case: He was behind, everyone knew it, and he needed a morale booster to keep his base from giving up. How is that analogous to Romney’s situation? Is there any Republican anywhere who’s given up and thinks O’s slight lead in Ohio in the independent polls is immune to huge GOP turnout tomorrow? The final Gallup and Rasmussen national tracking polls each have Romney ahead by a point, a fact Drudge is trumpeting as I write this. There are no Romney voters at this point who need rosy internal polls to nudge them out the door tomorrow.
Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.
Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.
Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.
Yeah, at this point I’m treating Nevada for O the way I’m treating North Carolina for Mitt — technically still in play, but easily the hardest “get” for the opposition. The good news is, there are few scenarios realistically in which the election would come down to Nevada. One is if O wins the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and needs one more state to push him over the line. If that happens, though, then he’ll probably be riding enough of a wave that he can grab one of the more competitive battleground states — Colorado, New Hampshire, or Iowa — to give him the election. Ditto for Mitt: If he wins Colorado, then he can get to 270 either with Ohio alone or with Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Hampshire, both of which look like genuine toss-ups vis-a-vis Nevada. The only way that Nevada is decisive is if there’s some truly odd scramble among the battleground states where, say, Romney wins Ohio but loses Colorado and Wisconsin and Iowa and New Hampshire. Not worth worrying about, especially if Romney’s internal polls are accurate. But just in case, our loyal readers in Nevada will be turning out tomorrow, right? No excuses, especially with Dean Heller in a tight race. Even if Nevada slips away from Romney, it might be the difference in whether he gets to work with a Republican or Democratic Senate.
Exit question: Seriously, are we going to know who won this election tomorrow night? Quote:
[I]n the wee hours Wednesday morning, [Ohio] counties will begin their count of the provisional ballots. These are votes that have been challenged for a wide variety of legitimate reasons. They include: Ohioans who are not registered; registered voters who moved but failed to update their addresses; people who showed up at the right polling place but were directed to the wrong precinct; voters who did not bring proper identification to the polls; and those who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person…
The rough Republican rule of thumb is that Romney requires a statewide lead of, at least, 50,000 votes to survive the provisional ballot phase of the Ohio long count. The requisite election night margin for Romney may, in fact, need to be higher. It all depends on the number of provisional ballots plus valid absentee ballots (postmarked Monday or earlier), which are still in the mail. And despite the best efforts of the secretary of state’s office to release an accurate count of disputed and missing ballots Wednesday morning, the final numbers will probably trickle in from Ohio’s 88 counties over the following few days.
Accepted provisional ballots won’t be added to the state’s vote totals until November 17-21. Legal challenges could drag things out weeks longer, a la Florida 2000. Consider this another motivator for 100 percent Republican turnout tomorrow: If we can’t stop Ohio from being very, very close, maybe we can stop it from mattering at all.
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Because everyone already knows.
“Praise and save Obama and punish the evil right wingers, amen.”
profitsbeard on May 18, 2013 at 3:43 AM
This is a disgusting and diabolical use of a government agency for nefarious ends. Honest Americans in both parties should be appalled and scared by such abuse.
Random targeting of groups due to their political beliefs is more the product of thought police than a republican democracy. Whoever is involved used the auspices of government, a government we own and finance, to despotically and illegally destroy her citizens. That is not only “chilling” but destructive to the very freedoms upon which our country operates.
There is no question this was carried out by Democratic Party operatives and is therefore political in premise. Tax exempt groups applying at the same time received no similar scrutiny and in fact moved swiftly through the process. So the only question I have is who knew what and when? What were their motives?
The President has stated he found out about this last week. Yet last year, before the election this was fairly common knowledge. In fact senior officials in his administration, including Neil Wolin, were directly briefed. Again, who knew what and when? Why was this not disclosed by those who knew- especially given the criminal nature of this activity, which apparently then continued through the election? Did this not rise to something of importance to Mr. Obama either as President or a candidate? Surely such as scandal would be notable in some regard.
This entire sordid mess stinks and not simply as a matter of politics. It undercuts the very premise of our democracy by destroying a voters right to participate in free and fair elections. It adds an element of fear to freely voicing one’s political choices. That’s not just chilling, it has no place in our country and should be punished in the most punitive way to send a signal of zero tolerance for such criminal behavior.
Thus far, President Pedestrian is still sitting on the sidelines muttering how he “looked away” when the parade passed and wants to know what he missed. One begins to wonder who running our country.
Marcus Traianus on May 18, 2013 at 9:27 AM
Apparently a secret can be kept in DC, especially if it involves keeping your highly paid no show job. No one with a govt job ever gets fired, they get promoted.
Kissmygrits on May 18, 2013 at 9:40 AM
Wait, so the IRS discovered these wrongdoings, independently put a stop to them and briefed the Treasury department, AND authorized an IG investigation which then they leaked to the public. But we’re mad because they chose not to make it a campaign issues considering it has nothing to do with Obama’s governance? *yawn*
libfreeordie on May 18, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Why? Do you have to be that stupid to ask that?
watertown on May 18, 2013 at 11:14 AM
re:
verbaluce . . ad nauseum . .
He who argues with a fool (tool?) is an even greater fool.
barton on May 17, 2013 at 6:34 PM
As I recall, Solomon had that figured out almost 3,000 years ago. LOL
yesiamapirate on May 18, 2013 at 11:28 AM
libfreeordie on May 18, 2013 at 10:14 AM
Ann Barnhardt has a couple of good pieces up about you people.
tom daschle concerned on May 18, 2013 at 11:59 AM
I go with option Three, above.
Lourdes on May 18, 2013 at 12:02 PM
Also correct, almost certainly, as goal.
Anyone who thinks Axelrod, Obama, Jarrett, Holder, Hillary, etc. are nice people is out of their mind.
Lourdes on May 18, 2013 at 12:04 PM
“I was not told of this problem at any time before the election … Even if I was told of it, it was an on-going investigation that I couldn’t comment on … When actual evidence was developed that this problem existed, and that laws, regulations, and rules were violated, we couldn’t comment until hearing both sides … Who you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?”
Another Drew on May 18, 2013 at 12:11 PM
With the acquisition of power, Obama was able to substitute the IRS, and other government agencies, for the thugs at ACORN who enabled his 2008 election.
Another Drew on May 18, 2013 at 12:13 PM
The question is – “who benefits”?
The answer is – Obama personally (his re-election), the Democrats and their big govt. liberal agenda.
It is laughable to think this was being done without their knowledge. It’s like thinking all the traffic lights you’ve come to recently are now magically changing “green” just as you arrive by sheer luck. The fix was in. And even if you didn’t order it, it gets NOTICED.
Saltyron on May 18, 2013 at 12:44 PM
From the NY Times article:
Here the NY Times is trying to limit the damage to the Obama Administration but these are career bureaucrats that have been working there long before Obama was elected in many cases. This is a culture of coverups and political intimidation that penetrates the entire “progressive” wing of the Democratic Party. The NY Times here is trying to limit the scope and blame only Obama. But we see the same sort of coverup and dishonesty in the New York state government and the government in New York City.
This is a systemic problem with the entire Democratic Party and it needs to be portrayed in that way.
crosspatch on May 18, 2013 at 1:39 PM
Why did the IRS keep the scandal quiet until after the election?
Simple answer; it probably would have made the difference in our last election.
Romney was riding high in popularity on this issue and loathing for the IRS is fairly ubiquitous across the political spectrum. So combined with the first debate, could Obama’s second campaign withstood a wide-ranging scandal which got extensive coverage on an important economic issue? Or is the real scandal in covering up the fact they knew and were deeply involved in this issue? That’s hard to say and speculative. But it sure became a non-factor with no impact- which was ultimately the Obama Campaign’s intent.
As to the cover up, I suspect we are about to find more people close to the president who had very intimate knowledge of what was going on. Anyone heard from Jim Messina lately?
Marcus Traianus on May 18, 2013 at 2:49 PM
And let us not forget the leaking that the IRS did to ProPublica… funded in part by Soros… it isn’t just the rectal exam level of information, down to prayers conducted by organizations… but the ‘inadvertant release’ of such information to political groups.
Also the IRS getting its hands on your healthcare info. Isn’t that sweet? Can’t yo just wait until THAT INFORMATION gets leaked by the IRS? Because the same lady who headed up the political rectal exam unit is now heading up the Obamacare enforcement unit.
ajacksonian on May 18, 2013 at 3:54 PM
The clinton’s used the IRS as a weapon when they were in the White House and I imagine many more did the same thing with the FBI when J. Edgar Hoover was at the helm. After his death they found he had files on tons of people.
mixplix on May 18, 2013 at 5:17 PM
Asking a question like that equates to the intelligence of a snail.
mixplix on May 18, 2013 at 6:26 PM
Very simple. These guys are smart. Once the election is safely stolen, as 2012 was stolen by the Democrats, it does not matter if Obama’s henchmen (and in this case, henchwoman) broke the law. Since their side has control of the Government, no one will be prosecuted and the regime remains in power and the election remains stolen.
The IRS was instrumental in stealing the election and the election will stay stolen no matter what happens. That is all that these totalitarianists care about.
Rogervzv on May 19, 2013 at 11:01 AM
I’m really not surprised, it’s time to leave this place.
Not sure where to go, but it’s time.
mmcnamer1 on May 19, 2013 at 11:19 AM
I go with the option that most public employees vote Democrat. As an observation. Dems are risk averse – not all, but definitely the majority – “Let someone else tell me what to do; when I’m in power, I’ll tell others what to do.” They think alike – just as most secure university positions are held by Dems, so are most government positions. Rs are in the minority. (Guess we’re too busy creating real jobs, working two jobs to stay off the gov’t welfare, coaching, heaving forbid – going to church or a gun range, etc.”
Stolen election or not, this crew will stay in power – no one will impeach a minority president or a woman.
MN J on May 19, 2013 at 11:23 AM
Now the IRS is like the labor unions.
Basically they are political organizations that force you to donate to them.
esnap on May 19, 2013 at 1:10 PM
SERIOUSLY? You are THAT stupid that you have to ask?!
easyt65 on May 20, 2013 at 9:16 AM
Every time the main page of Hot Air loads, I see this question, and think, “That must be a rhetorical question!”
There Goes the Neighborhood on May 20, 2013 at 10:10 AM
Then again, you have Exhibit A for why you sometimes need to ask rhetorical questions…..
There Goes the Neighborhood on May 20, 2013 at 10:14 AM
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