Internal polls: Romney up one in OH, two in IA, three in NH, tied in PA and WI

posted at 5:27 pm on November 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

The skeptical view of leaking these is that it smacks of what desperate campaigns do when they know they’re losing. Remember Tom Barrett? He wanted the world to believe, contra nearly all of the independent polling, that he and Scott Walker were dead even two weeks out from the recall election this summer. That made perfect sense in his case: He was behind, everyone knew it, and he needed a morale booster to keep his base from giving up. How is that analogous to Romney’s situation? Is there any Republican anywhere who’s given up and thinks O’s slight lead in Ohio in the independent polls is immune to huge GOP turnout tomorrow? The final Gallup and Rasmussen national tracking polls each have Romney ahead by a point, a fact Drudge is trumpeting as I write this. There are no Romney voters at this point who need rosy internal polls to nudge them out the door tomorrow.

Mitt Romney is ahead by a single percentage point in Ohio, according to internal polling data provided to MailOnline by a Republican party source.

Internal campaign polling completed last night by campaign pollster Neil Newhouse has Romney three points up in New Hampshire, two points up in Iowa and dead level in Wisconsin and – most startlingly – Pennsylvania.

Internal poll show Romney trailing in Nevada, reflected in a consensus among senior advisers that Obama will probably win the state. Early voting in Nevada has shown very heavy turnout in the Democratic stronghold of Clark County and union organisation in the state is strong.

Yeah, at this point I’m treating Nevada for O the way I’m treating North Carolina for Mitt — technically still in play, but easily the hardest “get” for the opposition. The good news is, there are few scenarios realistically in which the election would come down to Nevada. One is if O wins the big four in the Rust Belt and midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin — and needs one more state to push him over the line. If that happens, though, then he’ll probably be riding enough of a wave that he can grab one of the more competitive battleground states — Colorado, New Hampshire, or Iowa — to give him the election. Ditto for Mitt: If he wins Colorado, then he can get to 270 either with Ohio alone or with Wisconsin plus Iowa or New Hampshire, both of which look like genuine toss-ups vis-a-vis Nevada. The only way that Nevada is decisive is if there’s some truly odd scramble among the battleground states where, say, Romney wins Ohio but loses Colorado and Wisconsin and Iowa and New Hampshire. Not worth worrying about, especially if Romney’s internal polls are accurate. But just in case, our loyal readers in Nevada will be turning out tomorrow, right? No excuses, especially with Dean Heller in a tight race. Even if Nevada slips away from Romney, it might be the difference in whether he gets to work with a Republican or Democratic Senate.

Exit question: Seriously, are we going to know who won this election tomorrow night? Quote:

[I]n the wee hours Wednesday morning, [Ohio] counties will begin their count of the provisional ballots. These are votes that have been challenged for a wide variety of legitimate reasons. They include: Ohioans who are not registered; registered voters who moved but failed to update their addresses; people who showed up at the right polling place but were directed to the wrong precinct; voters who did not bring proper identification to the polls; and those who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person…

The rough Republican rule of thumb is that Romney requires a statewide lead of, at least, 50,000 votes to survive the provisional ballot phase of the Ohio long count. The requisite election night margin for Romney may, in fact, need to be higher. It all depends on the number of provisional ballots plus valid absentee ballots (postmarked Monday or earlier), which are still in the mail. And despite the best efforts of the secretary of state’s office to release an accurate count of disputed and missing ballots Wednesday morning, the final numbers will probably trickle in from Ohio’s 88 counties over the following few days.

Accepted provisional ballots won’t be added to the state’s vote totals until November 17-21. Legal challenges could drag things out weeks longer, a la Florida 2000. Consider this another motivator for 100 percent Republican turnout tomorrow: If we can’t stop Ohio from being very, very close, maybe we can stop it from mattering at all.


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********** UpDatey AlertaRoo *********************

More: Displaced voters in New York may go to any polling place, sign an affidavit, vote at that location – @NBCNewYork

7 mins ago from http://www.nbcnewyork.com by editor
=================================================

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-new-jersey-elections-voting-decision-2012-sandy-177182531.html

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

it’s going to be a chik-fil-a day tomorrow

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

It was a Chik-fil-A day today! Life is sweet.

Laura in Maryland on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Oh anyone remember Jim Cramer, that nutty host of the CNBC show “Mad Money,” Well he has made another call from his asylum his prediction:

Obama beats Romney 440 to 98 in the Electoral College and wins popular vote 65%-35% (I kid you not)

He needs to get back on his meds ASAP. lol

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:00 PM

********** UpDatey AlertaRoo *********************

More: Displaced voters in New York may go to any polling place, sign an affidavit, vote at that location – @NBCNewYork

7 mins ago from http://www.nbcnewyork.com by editor
=================================================

http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/new-york-new-jersey-elections-voting-decision-2012-sandy-177182531.html

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

So – only displaced voters….really a non-issue. Won’t amount to any more than a few hundred “extra” votes if any.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Had to change locations to one that held 10000. Still turned people away.

Makes me misty.

bluealice on November 5, 2012 at 5:56 PM

The Patriot Center is not a small place. Obama has been on the GMU campus enough they are about to demand he pay for the meal plan. And yet people were turned away. Awesome!

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 6:01 PM

NH will go Romney.

remember the

TROLLCOT!!

dogsoldier on November 5, 2012 at 6:01 PM

The reason to release the internal polling is to put pressure on Obama to show his own cards. Won’t happen, and Team O will call Romney’s move ‘flailing,’ ‘desperate,’ etc…
…until tomorrow night, that is…

Ha haa, HA HAAA, Bwaa-ha-haa, NYAH-HE-HAAA-HE-HEE-HAAA!!! Sweet are the tears.

DublOh7 on November 5, 2012 at 6:01 PM

/Gumby mode on: Can I get Fries and a 32 oz Coke with that Freedom?

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Not in New York City. But you can get a 32,000 gallon saltwater subway.

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 6:01 PM

Laura in Maryland on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

:)

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Exit question: Seriously, are we going to know who won this election tomorrow night?

Yes, because Mitt will win Pennsylvania.

forest on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Eh, I still think there is a very reasonable situation where Nevada IS very important:

Romney keeps his southern states (VA, NC, FL) but fails in all the NE and Midwest states (OH, MI, PA, NH)… in fact this was pretty much what people were thinking was the most likely scenario 2 weeks ago.

In that case, Romney can be president if he gets Colorado and…Nevada. That will create a 269-269 electoral college tie.

Seriously, if you look at mainstream polling, the most likely losing situation for Romney is exactly the above, but without Nevada.

FBones on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Romney should just spend 100% of his time concentrating on the east coast: Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Pennsylvania, and the second district of Maine. That will give him the 269 votes he needs to be president.

Then he should tell Ryan, “if you want to be my VP, then go west and find me at least one additional electoral vote.” If Ryan can’t even do that much, Romney’s probably better of with Biden anyway; at least that way no one would even think about trying an assassination.

RINO in Name Only on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

it’s going to be a chik-fil-a day tomorrow

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

It was a Chik-fil-A day today! Life is sweet.

Laura in Maryland on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Yep, had my Chick-Fil-A breakfast this morning! :)

JennM111 on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

It’s actually “Cornelius” IIRC

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 5:58 PM

GTFO! Really???

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Well,it would be nice if it fell,in favour of Mttens tho!:)

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 5:54 PM

If NY goes for Romney it will be the final sign of the apocalypse. And I give a better chance of Hell freezing over before NY will go RED.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 PM

The chance of NY going RED is NEGATIVE 50%, so they can vote 10 times each for all I care. It won’t make an iota of difference.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Exaclty – might effect a congresscritter race or two, but I’m sure there will be re-counts if things change drastically from what is expected.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Is it all NY or just NYC/hurricane affected areas?

Fat Dan is already looking for ways to cheat Buerkle… Got told to pound sand by a judge today. Managed to piss off some local Dems in his efforts to hijack the vote counting too. Accidentally exposed the fact that he’s a Beltway elitist that looks down on us as a bunch of rust belt hicks.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 PM

So, when Romney wins we’ll still have Boehner and McConnell(who seems to be MIA lately) rolling over and capitulating to the dems in Congress. I see no hope quite frankly.

Mr. Arrogant on November 5, 2012 at 6:04 PM

‘Thousands of ballots’ unlikely to reach military voters in time…

this pi$$es me off big time…

shameful

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Via @numbersmuncher:

Gallup poll isn’t as good for Obama as you’d think. His surge is in the East is why he shrunk gap. Still losing in Midwest, South, and West.

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Oh anyone remember Jim Cramer, that nutty host of the CNBC show “Mad Money,” Well he has made another call from his asylum his prediction:

Obama beats Romney 440 to 98 in the Electoral College and wins popular vote 65%-35% (I kid you not)

He needs to get back on his meds ASAP. lol

Did you look at the map in the link? LOL TX? For Obama? This dude is smoking some serious stuff.

JennM111 on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

I dropped off my households 3 ballots this morning. 3 votes for Mitt in Oregon. I know. Big whoop.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:06 PM

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Hey! NOW we have a PortlandJohn!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:07 PM

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:06 PM

don’t say big whoop

be proud…you never know what could happen there

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:07 PM

LOL

The MSM is pulling to all the stops to keep the illusion of an Obama lead alive:

Latest ABC/WaPo poll but is skewed D+6 with Republicans making up only 29% of the electorate (worse than during the height of Hopenchange Euphoria in 2008).

Riiiiiight

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 5:37 PM

And they bumped it up today from D+4 to D+6, when every other poll shows movement in Romney’s direction. I hope this year causes some of these alphabet media corporations to get out of the polling business, period.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 6:07 PM

karl says wisconsin is lean obama

dang it

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:08 PM

It’s actually “Cornelius” IIRC

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 5:58 PM

GTFO! Really???

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Well the old ball player was Cornelius, and he’s apparently “Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV.” That’s from Wikipedia, so there’s at least a 30% chance it’s correct, if you ask Nate Silver.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Husband and I’ll be voting RR in New Jersey, for I feel for Oregon. But we did dump Corzine, so there is a chance. And it’s my civic duty, I’ll just feel better if I do. You never know.

clnurnberg on November 5, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I wonder what the MoE is on these internal polls.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 6:09 PM

A Russian nuclear-powered attack submarine cruised within 200 miles of the East Coast recently in the latest sign Russia is continuing to flex its naval and aerial power against the United States, defense officials said.

The submarine was identified by its NATO designation as a Russian Seirra-2 class submarine believed to be based with Russia’s Northern Fleet. It was the first time that class of Russian submarine had been detected near a U.S. coast, said officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of anti-submarine warfare efforts.

The leading edge of the promised flexibility.

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Gallup also have Obama leading +1 with independents – Against every other poll out there.

And still -> Romney hits 50 and leads Obama by 1 in this poll

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Via Drudge:

Russian nuclear attack sub detected in Atlantic; Near East Coast…

-Looks like the Russians are bringing in THEIR ballots for Obama.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

What the hell is wrong with Nevada? They are in the toilet with unemployment and housing. Is eveyone drunk and frequenting brothels?

I think the Midwest brings it on home for Romney. Iowa, Wisconsin and Ohio (by just enough inspite of the fraud) will put him over the top. I think he also gets New Hampshire and Colorado as well, which will make it a decisive win for our next President of the United States, Willard Mitt Romney!!! I LOVE the sound of it!!!

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Well the old ball player was Cornelius, and he’s apparently “Cornelius Harvey McGillicuddy IV.” That’s from Wikipedia, so there’s at least a 30% chance it’s correct, if you ask Nate Silver.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Jesus Christ, you ain’t lyin!

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

You remind me of a good point about Ohio. Obama has always assumed the Presidency for Republican goes through Ohio and has it looks like contaminated the state pretty bad.

It won’t surprise me if Ohio falls out of order with Wisconsin or PA falling instead where Obama never expected to be in 2012.

Obama’s firewall might be weakest at one of the surrounding states not Ohio. Just specualtion but it increase your odds if you can add probabilities of say Wisconsin or Ohio or Pennsyslvania. You would combine those to get Mitt’s chances of winning.

Conan on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Obama has been caught flat footed he never in his wildest dreams thought PA, or WI would fall, so he didn’t air a single ad in either state until recently. And now Romney is outspending him 3-1 in both states. If you read Jay Cost’s analysis from today you will see just how likely it is that PA goes to Romney. I would say the chances of PA going to Romney are 65%.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

karls final prediction 285 mitt 235 obama

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

That can’t be Mitt Romney…he isn’t tall enough, Mitt Romney is 7 feet tall.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 5:47 PM
Aye. And if it were he, he’d consume obamabots with fireballs from his eyes and lightning bolts from his arse.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 5:49 PM

‘Willim’ Wallace is a fav. ;-)

pambi on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I dropped off my households 3 ballots this morning. 3 votes for Mitt in Oregon. I know. Big whoop.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:06 PM

7 here. 4 for me, 3 for the wife.

Headed for the polls tomorrow am!

BobMbx on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Oh anyone remember Jim Cramer, that nutty host of the CNBC show “Mad Money,” Well he has made another call from his asylum his prediction:

Obama beats Romney 440 to 98 in the Electoral College and wins popular vote 65%-35% (I kid you not)

He needs to get back on his meds ASAP. lol

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:00 PM

LOL. There’s a blast from the past. I remember that map from last year when all the weird lefties were talking about Sarah Palin or Je Bush being our nominee, how Hispanics were putting Texas in play, and how just a small shift and Obama would win Georgia. Oh man… didn’t know people still knew how to be that crazy anymore.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The leak is because of the media/polls. D+11 nuff said

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:15 PM

it’s going to be a chik-fil-a day tomorrow

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

It was a Chik-fil-A day today! Life is sweet.

Laura in Maryland on November 5, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Laura in Maryland:Lol,ummmmm,…..chicken:)

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:15 PM

karls final prediction 285 mitt 235 obama

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

That works for me

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Rational Thought on November 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Gallup also have Obama leading +1 with independents – Against every other poll out there.

And still -> Romney hits 50 and leads Obama by 1 in this poll

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Gallup’s tracker there includes Thursday and Friday, which judging from Rasmussen were good Obama days where he was still holding a bump from Christie’s boot-licking.

Every other poll shows independents breaking harder toward Romney over this weekend. That squares of course with the general understanding of undecideds breaking against an unpopular-to-middling incumbent.

I’d like to know the sample of Romney’s leaked internals. Judging from the topline numbers it sounds like he’s assuming a D+3, which is realistic, but probably close to the Dems ceiling.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:17 PM

What the hell is wrong with Nevada? They are in the toilet with unemployment and housing. Is eveyone drunk and frequenting brothels?

Rockshine on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

I would not write off NV yet. Early voting at this point is closer to 2004 than 2008.

Also: Las Vegas is 6% LDS, collar counties are 25%+ LDS. Expect HUGE turnout for Romney tomorrow.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Oh anyone remember Jim Cramer, that nutty host of the CNBC show “Mad Money,” Well he has made another call from his asylum his prediction:

Obama beats Romney 440 to 98 in the Electoral College and wins popular vote 65%-35% (I kid you not)

He needs to get back on his meds ASAP. lol

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:00 PM

I wonder what his recommendations were for Government Motors stock right before Obama’s “have I got a deal for you” public offering.

Price per share has dropped 30-40% since the PO.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Levin is doing a great job. I’ve had my doubts about him, but he’s just great. No, we are not going to throw away our freedoms for free contraception. Being a woman, I hate to say it, but women voters can be so damn stupid.

clnurnberg on November 5, 2012 at 6:18 PM

karls final prediction 285 mitt 235 obama

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

That works for me

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:16 PM

That’s 510…

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:20 PM

I’d like to know the sample of Romney’s leaked internals. Judging from the topline numbers it sounds like he’s assuming a D+3, which is realistic, but probably close to the Dems ceiling.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:17 PM

The Romney Camp has always said they expect a D+3, so internal polling likely reflects that.

That is roughly in between 2008 and 2004 (a HUGE dem Year vs a year with strong turnout from both sides).

Again, I don’t think that is realistic, especially given the Voter ID results from Gallup and Rasmussen earlier (R+1 to R+5).

Remember, Romney still ties @ D+4, and wins any scenario below that.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:21 PM

karls final prediction 285 mitt 235 obama

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:11 PM

That works for me

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:16 PM

That’s 510…

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Sorry 520.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:21 PM

He was just on Cavuto, and if I heard him right, he’s still voting for King Obama. He said that no one from the King’s campaign had bothered to contact him this entire election season to help out.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 5:48 PM

He was at a hotel meeting with a Romney team several months ago. Word hit the street and it wasn’t pleasant for him. He doesn’t buy into all of the class warfare crap that O sells and he also believe that we need to encourage entrepreneurs. He may vote for Obama, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he did something else in the privacy of the voting booth. He isn’t looking for revenge and he is not a grievance monger.

Resist We Much on November 5, 2012 at 6:21 PM

That’s 510…

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:20 PM

The other 27 go to Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheehan.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:23 PM

People also have to consider a few factors in polling.

1)this happened in England (UK) in 1992, It’s called the “shy Tory” factor.
Where conservatives will tell pollsters they are voting for the “‘Labor candidate” (Democrat) and when they get in the booth vote for the Conservative. Labour was leading in polls by 6%-8% and ended up losing by 8%.
The Conservatives ALSO received the largest number of popular votes in history, breaking the record set by Labour in 1951.

2) The Bradley effect. Someone will tell a pollster the “politically correct” answer to not appear “racist”

3) The OH while skewed by ridiculous over samples of Democrats, ALSO are skewed by people lying about voting early. This is true even in Rassmussen which claims 40% voted early, when in reality only 21.8% have in fact done so. Obama’s lead among the claimed voted early crowd is 55%-38%. If the poll gets adjusted down to say 25% voted early. Romney’s would lead 52%-48%, instead of being tied at 49%.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:23 PM

as KJ would say

it’s going to be a chik-fil-a day tomorrow

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

You’d better believe it, baby. “Morning in America” is coming…again!!!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 6:25 PM

That’s 510…

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Details schmetails

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:25 PM

The Romney Camp has always said they expect a D+3, so internal polling likely reflects that.

That is roughly in between 2008 and 2004 (a HUGE dem Year vs a year with strong turnout from both sides).

Again, I don’t think that is realistic, especially given the Voter ID results from Gallup and Rasmussen earlier (R+1 to R+5).

Remember, Romney still ties @ D+4, and wins any scenario below that.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:21 PM

I generally agree. I think it will probably be more like Even or a narrow R+. Intensity seems at least as strong as 2004, and we have the advantage of uncertain and underwhelmed indies on our side this time.

D+3 though is realistic from the assumptions toward the early part of this campaign, and I expect Romney would rather have consistency in his polls than changing the sample. Besides, if they have multiple polls going, releasing the numbers that show us up 4 in OH, leading PA WI and tied in MN MI, the media would just laugh at it as bluster.

If they’re working from D+3 and can see victory in hand, then everybody at team Romney can rest knowing they did everything possible… If we, Ras, Gallup are right at it’s better than that, then let the left be surprised at the landslide.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Via Drudge:

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

Sounds like they know we’re going to destroy them in Election Day voters.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

I wonder what his recommendations were for Government Motors stock right before Obama’s “have I got a deal for you” public offering.

Price per share has dropped 30-40% since the PO.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Why do you think he got called out by fellow liberal Jon Stewart, because MOST of his recommendations were not just wrong but embarrassingly wrong.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:30 PM

RomneyResponse ‏@RomneyResponse

CROWD PHOTOS: A Massive Rally For Real Change In Virginia http://bit.ly/TtPCvC #RomneyRyan2012 #tcot

http://romneyresponse.tumblr.com/post/35075617981/a-massive-rally-for-real-change-in-virginia-these

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Via Drudge:

Russian nuclear attack sub detected in Atlantic; Near East Coast…

-Looks like the Russians are bringing in THEIR ballots for Obama.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

OMG! I meed all te laugh I can get from HA!!

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 6:30 PM

People also have to consider a few factors in polling.

1)this happened in England (UK) in 1992, It’s called the “shy Tory” factor.
Where conservatives will tell pollsters they are voting for the “‘Labor candidate” (Democrat) and when they get in the booth vote for the Conservative. Labour was leading in polls by 6%-8% and ended up losing by 8%.
The Conservatives ALSO received the largest number of popular votes in history, breaking the record set by Labour in 1951.

2) The Bradley effect. Someone will tell a pollster the “politically correct” answer to not appear “racist”

3) The OH while skewed by ridiculous over samples of Democrats, ALSO are skewed by people lying about voting early. This is true even in Rassmussen which claims 40% voted early, when in reality only 21.8% have in fact done so. Obama’s lead among the claimed voted early crowd is 55%-38%. If the poll gets adjusted down to say 25% voted early. Romney’s would lead 52%-48%, instead of being tied at 49%.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Good points.

I would also point out that this is the first time Obama has been on the ballot in over 4 years. Sure, he ran in some primaries this year and lost to a convicted felon in some states, but I digress.

Just remember what happened last time pollsters had guessed turnout/weighing in an election (not caucus) where Obama was on the ballot (they later had to reweigh all their samples for subsequent races):

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 6:31 PM

The other 27 go to Roseanne Barr/Cindy Sheehan.

Lanceman on November 5, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Details schmetails

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:25 PM

LOL. Fair enough. As long as Mitt has the 285. I don’t care if the rest adds up to 286…

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Russian nuclear attack sub detected in Atlantic; Near East Coast…

-Looks like the Russians are bringing in THEIR ballots for Obama.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Have another White Russian on me this evening.

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 6:33 PM

I’m not LDS. I live in Vegas and the Ryan/Romney Rally in October was awesome.

I see WAAAAAY more Romney/Ryan signs in the burb I live in.

My hubs and I are voting in the morning. We’re taking our 6 year old that has already pronounced Mitt Romney the winner because he doesn’t want to take his piggy bank money.

Chocktopus on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Via Drudge:

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

Sounds like they know we’re going to destroy them in Election Day voters.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

I wonder how long before he’s told it’s over. 24 hours? 18? Does he know already? Or are Axelturd & Messina so gutless they’ll let him find out the hard way tomorrow night.

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

I really need to stay away from AP posts! They are always tainted with a negative vibe. My final answer, is that Romney either wins big, or he doesn’t win. It’s inconceivable to me that Obama can B.S. His way into a second term, but I’ve underestimated the idiocy of American voters before. My gut tells me Romney wins big.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

it’s going to be a chik-fil-a day tomorrow

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 5:57 PM

I drove past a nearby Chik-fil-a on Saturday and there was a huge line of cars wrapped around the building to the drive-thru. They are starting early! :)

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Via Drudge:

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

Sounds like they know we’re going to destroy them in Election Day voters.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Oh Crap.

This is like the Titanic sinking, and the White Star Lines Crew telling people to remain calm. Everybody is fine. This is just a drill.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Via Drudge:

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Everyone be calm. There is no truth to the rumors the Americans have occupied the Baghdad Airport.

– Baghdad Bob

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Washington Post ABC final poll the President up by 3 …another sign of the trend for President Obama … also a great day for Chris Christie when the President put him on the phone with Bruce Springsteen…Christie says he weeped in happiness … I can’t wait … Rush is going to lose it when he hears this …

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I]n the wee hours Wednesday morning, [Ohio] counties will begin their count of the provisional ballots. These are votes that have been challenged for a wide variety of legitimate reasons. They include: Ohioans who are not registered; registered voters who moved but failed to update their addresses; people who showed up at the right polling place but were directed to the wrong precinct; voters who did not bring proper identification to the polls; and those who requested an absentee ballot but decided to vote in person…

Another good reason the purging of the voter roles is a big plus. (OH Purged 400,000 names from the roles via the reasons stated above)And dont forget the dead that voted in 08 as well.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 6:38 PM

My gut tells me Romney wins big.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Then you’ve absolutely nothing to worry about, and there’s no need to dump on AP. He’s not being overly bearish – he’s merely saying what everyone else is on our side.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:39 PM

karl says wisconsin is lean obama

dang it

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Karl is wrong. The Wisconsin folks have come out how many times lately to show the dems and unions where they stand, three, four?

dogsoldier on November 5, 2012 at 6:39 PM

I drove past a nearby Chik-fil-a on Saturday and there was a huge line of cars wrapped around the building to the drive-thru. They are starting early! :)

PatriotGal2257 on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

November 6, 2012: National Chick-fil-A-The-Kenyan Day

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Via Drudge:

Obama Campaign to Supporters: Don’t Panic Over Early Exit Polls

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Yep, Obama to Supporters: “Give us time to steal enough votes from places like Cleveland and Philadelphia.”

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 6:40 PM

I wonder how long before he’s told it’s over. 24 hours? 18? Does he know already?
Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Last week. Hence the “revenge” remark.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 6:40 PM

November 6, 2012: National Chick-fil-A-The-Kenyan Day

JPeterman on November 5, 2012 at 6:39 PM

I love it.

I don’t think this is going to be close at all. I think you’ll see a surprise state go for Mitt before 10pm central time.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:41 PM

This is like the Titanic sinking, and the White Star Lines Crew telling people to remain calm. Everybody is fine. This is just a drill.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Exactly! That’s a sign of implosion, right there, followed by LANDSLIDE.

dogsoldier on November 5, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Don’t be drinking anything when you read this

Jamie Dupree ‏@jamiedupree

New ABC/Washington Post poll finds Democrats more enthusiastic about voting than GOP voters by 8 points

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Gonna be a late one………………Rally at 11:00PM
=====================================================

Mitt & Ann Romney Attend Final Rally in New Hampshire
*****************************************************

Manchester, New Hampshire
Monday, November 5, 2012
*************************

Mitt Romney will be joined by his wife Ann at the campaign’s final rally in Manchester, New Hampshire.

The stop in New Hampshire at the Verizon Wireless Arena, wraps up the final day of events for Romney. Earlier in the day, he spent time in the battleground states of Florida, Virginia and Ohio.

During a campaign stop on Saturday, Mitt Romney said “New Hampshire got me the Republican nomination, and New Hampshire is going to get me the White House.” Romney won the New Hampshire Republican primary in January with 39.3% of the votes.

The latest WMUR/Granite State Poll released on October 22, has President Obama leading 49% to 4.

Updated: Sunday at 6:01pm (ET)

Mitt Romney, Ann Romney Final Rally in Manchester, NH: Live at 11pm (ET)
===========

http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Mitt-Ann-Romney-Attend-Final-Rally-in-New-Hampshire/10737435613/

================================

http://www.c-span.org/Campaign2012/Events/Mitt-Ann-Romney-Attend-Final-Rally-in-New-Hampshire/10737435613/

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

U2denver on November 5, 2012 at 6:37 PM

In a D+6 poll, which anybody with any common sense knows AIN’T gonna happen.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Last week. Hence the “revenge” remark.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 6:40 PM

I think so too. Freudian slip.

dogsoldier on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Russian nuclear attack sub detected in Atlantic; Near East Coast…

-Looks like the Russians are bringing in THEIR ballots for Obama.

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Maybe Vladimar wants to send a transmission to obama?

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Christie is begging to save the shore. The environmentalist lobby does NOT want it rebuilt. But, yeah, all the kissyface blows.

clnurnberg on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I really need to stay away from AP posts! They are always tainted with a negative vibe. My final answer, is that Romney either wins big, or he doesn’t win. It’s inconceivable to me that Obama can B.S. His way into a second term, but I’ve underestimated the idiocy of American voters before. My gut tells me Romney wins big.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Just push back. Remind him that he shouldn’t be trying to do the trolls jobs for them.

We have every reason to be enthusiastic and confident. All the trends, all the splits, all the measurement of voter registration and voter enthusiasm is in our favor.

Early exit polling for Obama is bad. It may not be a landslide tomorrow, but we’ll be able to at least see it from where we are. Then again, Carter and Reagan were “too close to call”.

oldroy on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:20 PM

just going with what he said on tv…

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:43 PM

, Romney’s probably better of with Biden anyway; at least that way no one would even think about trying an assassination.

RINO in Name Only on November 5, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Maybe Obiden will be proud if Romney is his President for the next four years! Hahahahaha!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 6:43 PM

New ABC/Washington Post poll finds Democrats more enthusiastic about voting than GOP voters by 8 points

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:42 PM

gophergirl:

*********************** NUTS ********************(Le Sarc):)

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Leaking internals is a bad sign. This is the most disciplined group we have had running a campaign. Christie polishing Obama’s knob turned some Today Show and The View watching low-info women voters back to Obama. I’m not a troll; I read this blog and support Romney. But this is a bad sign.

Ted Torgerson on November 5, 2012 at 6:44 PM

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 6:25 PM

:)

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:44 PM

gingotts maybe it was 255

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:45 PM

So it’s all hands on deck Republicans of Ohio. ALL HANDS ON DECK!

portlandon on November 5, 2012 at 5:32 PM

I believe this is true for every Republican, not just those in Ohio. No conservative vote left off the table this election. Alright?

mpthompson on November 5, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Father in law lives in NE PA.
I called him tonite- Dad get your butt out of bed early tomorrow and vote for Romney!

Dad- Who is Romney? Is he the republican or democrat running this year?

He’s the republican. It doesn’t matter just take mom to the polls and hit the R button.

OK, will do.

Yes, there are low info voters, but at least they are easily swayed.

tdarrington on November 5, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Leaking internals is a bad sign. This is the most disciplined group we have had running a campaign. Christie polishing Obama’s knob turned some Today Show and The View watching low-info women voters back to Obama. I’m not a troll; I read this blog and support Romney. But this is a bad sign.

Ted Torgerson on November 5, 2012 at 6:44 PM

It’s a different election. We’ve never had to combat such skewed polls and MSM basically campaigning outright for the dems.

The internal leaks IMO were to tell the MSM and the O campaign – we know you’re lying, full of crap and we are telling the world what is really going on.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I wonder how long before he’s told it’s over. 24 hours? 18? Does he know already?
Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Last week. Hence the “revenge” remark.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Could be. The demeanor of the left has clearly changed toward desperation and then depression over the past few weeks. Probably Sandy gave him one last bit of hope with the Fat Man non-endorsement endorsement tour, but after that he was told it wouldn’t be enough… Then comes “revenge.”

Gingotts on November 5, 2012 at 6:46 PM

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 5:54 PM

If NY goes for Romney it will be the final sign of the apocalypse. And I give a better chance of Hell freezing over before NY will go RED.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 5, 2012 at 6:03 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet:Oh lordy,the sufferage of…,ahem!:0

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Romney either wins big, or he doesn’t win. It’s inconceivable to me that Obama can B.S. His way into a second term, but I’ve underestimated the idiocy of American voters before. My gut tells me Romney wins big.

BettyRuth on November 5, 2012 at 6:35 PM

I am exactly in this club.

I’ve been the cheerleader for my friends and family until I read this story and now I’ve resorted to X*n*x.

It has to be huge or nothing. I cannot get my head around these polls being so bloody close!!!

I guess (can’t remember) that the night before election 1980 everybody was saying it was “too close to call” and look how that turned out.

arrghhh

tru2tx on November 5, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Isn’t it kind of hilarious that a state like New Jersey -bedrock Obama dirt- will probably get to vote for 24 hours or more, allow for all sorts of “irreugularities”, and still never gain a single additional electoral vote?

It’s like a petulant child stamping his feet, and then being grabbed by the collar and made to obey.

M240H on November 5, 2012 at 6:48 PM

RomneyResponse ‏@RomneyResponse

.@MittRomney VIDEO: Tomorrow, We Come Together For A Better Future http://bit.ly/UuxrF8 #RomneyRyan2012 #tcot

VIDEO:(1:11)

Mitt Romney: Tomorrow, We Come Together For A Better Future

“Tomorrow, we get to work rebuilding our country, restoring our confidence and renewing our conviction, our confidence that we’re on a solid path to steady improvement — confidence that college grads four years from now will have better jobs waiting for them, confidence that single moms who are now working two jobs will be able to find a better job.” – Mitt Romney
==========================================

http://romneyresponse.tumblr.com/post/35086243114/mitt-romney-tomorrow-we-come-together-for-a

canopfor on November 5, 2012 at 6:48 PM

The proven track record of campaigns that release internal polls does nothing to ease my natural eeyore.

Anyone else remember this?
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/john-mccains-ow.html

Ugh, I need a drink…..

alchemist19 on November 5, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Just wondering, you guys are aware Romney is probably going to lose tomorrow, right?

For the true believers, I want you to google something. It’s called the princeton election consortium. It’s kind of like nate silver, except they don’t weight the state polls like nate does – it’s just pure hard statistics based on state polling.

They were one (1) EV off in 2008. One!

Right now, their best bet is 310/228 Obama, and the chances of an Obama reelection is…99.9%.

I’m not saying its going to be a landslide, but there’s virtually no real chance for Romney. Sorry.

For all those brave enough to call me out, go ahead, just remember these posts will still be visible tomorrow night :)

triple on November 5, 2012 at 6:49 PM

tdarrington on November 5, 2012 at 6:45 PM

good for you

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 6:50 PM

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