Hot Air Survey: Your Election Predictions

posted at 9:21 am on November 5, 2012 by Patrick Ishmael


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For example, on ABC’s “This Week” yesterday, George Will predicted a Romney win, but all of the other panelists predicted an Obama win.
Dextrous on November 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Not just that. He predicted a Romney win with Minnesota! This is grouchy, sober, reasonable George Will. The dude is the opposite of a crazy prognosticator. But he sees the writing on the wall because it is as obvious as anything we’ve seen in years. Landslide.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:59 AM

salem on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Stop talking to the troll.

Trollcott

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

MSNBC will be the best. A very very quiet Matthews will suddenly excuse himself, go offstage, and then you’ll hear a single gunshot followed by panicked screaming and the screen suddenly going to test pattern.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

A single gunshot?

For that melon he’ll need an elephant gun then.

Like trying to prick the Hindenburg with a pea shooter.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Ignore ZippyZ too :)

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Its easier to ignore zippy, he just pushes betting sites.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Please let this happen tomorrow night.

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Nobody realistically thought McCain would win. The thing is, this election doesn’t have the feel of 2008. People are literally chomping at the bit to get out there and vote the rat-eared wonder out of office.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Not I. Caveat to this is my wife and I have voted in every Presidential and mid-term election since 1972 when we first became eligible to vote. Tomorrow, regardless of any weather issues, will not be the first election we miss and we will vote Romney as an ABO vote.

chemman on November 5, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Romney will win… Check all that apply

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Virginia
Wisconsin

Where’s Pennsylvania?

Mark1971 on November 5, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Trollcott sill working effectively? Cool…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:02 AM

I would not be surprised if it was not as close as the media is hyping it to be. These polls are just too unreliable. The enthusiasm appears to be with Romney and I believe there are going to be a lot of shocked, angry democrats on Wednseday morning, but none more shocked than Barack and Michelle.

bopbottle on November 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

MSNBC will be the best. A very very quiet Matthews will suddenly excuse himself, go offstage, and then you’ll hear a single gunshot followed by panicked screaming and the screen suddenly going to test pattern.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Na, his heads gonna explode like that dudes in Scanners.

Gatsu on November 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I’m not counting MSDNC as a major news network. Plus I’m pretty sure they’ve already called the Presidential race.

db on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Every reliable indicator points to a Romney win. From statistical indicators to historical, anecdotal, cultural, economic, momentum, Romney’s map expansion into blue territory, and comparative crowd size, every indicator points to a big Romney win.

The only indicator that favors Obama is a glut of polling data that relies on vastly over sampling democrats to get him to a tie or one point ahead but still below 50%. For Obama to win he would have to buck pretty much every historical trend known to American politics. It’s just so very unlikely.

dczombie on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Romney will win… Check all that apply

Colorado
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Minnesota
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Oregon
Virginia
Wisconsin

Where’s Pennsylvania?

Mark1971 on November 5, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Just for fun, try to read the above post in Dr. Yeagh’s voice!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I did. Now I need to drink a fifth of Clontarf to keep myself from digging holes in the yard.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM

fighting holes or booby-traps filled with rusty metal punji sticks ?

conservative tarheel on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Where’s Pennsylvania?

Mark1971 on November 5, 2012 at 10:02 AM

A lot of people, in my opinion, are going to be surprised to see California in that column… Call it a combination of the Brady effect (where did you think Tom Brady was from anyhow?) and the Cascade effect, (California Dems not voting in record numbers because Mitt is so far ahead by 5pm PST)

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

If Romney wins Oregon I will grow a mustache.

PortlandJon on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

If Romney wins Illinois I will grow a mustache, lol. Er, well, I’ll wear one for a week.

Fallon on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Stop talking to the troll.

Trollcott

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Got it. Temptation got the better of me.

salem on November 5, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Is there a way to see the current results?

GCM on November 5, 2012 at 10:07 AM


…N O
P O L L
T R O L L…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 10:07 AM

The polls are trash. I have 2 Republican sons with no landlines who were not polled. I have independent friends who voted for Obama in ’08 but who are adamently against him this year. How in the world does Obama get higher turnout than last time. The math just doesn’t work.

COgirl on November 5, 2012 at 10:07 AM

In 2008, according to the VAST MAJORITY of Hot Air readers, McCain was EASILY going to win,

Really? That’s not how I remember it at all. There were a few who did–like our Manly Rash, but most of us were as eeyorish as Allah at his most gloomy.

Bob's Kid on November 5, 2012 at 10:08 AM

You’ll see soon enough.

salem on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Every young generation (20-30 y/o) makes its own mistakes and fails to learn from others. Mine did in 1976 with Jimmah and now the current younger generation did with Barack.

chemman on November 5, 2012 at 10:08 AM


…T R O L L C O T T…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Romney will win in California

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

If Romney wins Oregon I will grow a mustache.

PortlandJon on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Just a heads up to ya then, even my moonbat 2008 enthusiastic Obama supporting sister who lives in Portland is voting Romney this time…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Sorry koolaid I was out of touch over the weekend and had no idea there was a trollcott. How pleasing.

Ellis on November 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Final prediction,

Romney will win: VA, FL, NC, CO

Obama will win: MI, PA, NH, WI, NV, IA, OH

Tally: Obama 281, Romney 257
Popular vote, Romney 51.2, Obama 49.8

In the spirit of a long lost lib poster, COUNT IT!

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Head-in-Sand-Cott!! Let’s only listen to Fox News and Glen Beck! Avoid all looking at facts, math, statistics, science, and by-all-means anybody who has a differing opinion. This will allow us to further live in the fantasy bubble we are creating for ourselves. We must never consider an opposing view. Let us only believe what we are told. Remember, the world is only 6,000 years old! They lied about that as well.

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Romney will win in California

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

ROTFLMAO…

A lot of people, in my opinion, are going to be surprised to see California in that column… Call it a combination of the Brady effect (where did you think Tom Brady was from anyhow?) and the Cascade effect, (California Dems not voting in record numbers because Mitt is so far ahead by 5pm PST)

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I’ve actually been saying this for months… o_O

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:13 AM

For Obama to win he would have to buck pretty much every historical trend known to American politics. It’s just so very unlikely.

This is what I am thinking the MSM and pollsters are trying to craft. a “UNPRECEDENTED! AMAZING! COME FROM NOWHERE!” win to bookend his “historic” victory in 2008.

Narratives and all that.

Shame its not happening.

Gatsu on November 5, 2012 at 10:14 AM

My ultra liberal, super Democrat friend who would never I’m a million years vote for an evil Rethuglican told me that this year all she cares about is her children’s future so she’s voting for Romney.

It’s like 1980, isn’t it?

Bob's Kid on November 5, 2012 at 10:14 AM

fighting holes or booby-traps filled with rusty metal punji sticks ?

conservative tarheel on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Bamboo sticks, they don’t rust and are easier to remove from the…trespassers.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Can anyone get a sense of what the candidates internal polls are saying by the demeanor of the managers? I don’t have cable so I don’t see all the interviews. I’m sure a lot of bluffing is going on but sometimes you can tell a lot by how they respond. I heard once that the candidates know by the weekend before how the election will turn out.

Paddington on November 5, 2012 at 10:15 AM

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Nope, SWalker been sayin’ it since summer.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I’m in MA.
Joe Kennedy for the win. Duh, we be Kennedy worshipers here.
Liz “the Injun” Warren with a small win. I’m truly disgusted my fellow Bay Staters are so brain dead that they will put this disgrace into office.

BO for the big one. I just think that all those people proud to have been part of history by voting for the first black president will do so again because they cannot allow the first historic black president to be single term president that will be viewed as a failure.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:17 AM

“Candidates’” I meant.

Paddington on November 5, 2012 at 10:17 AM

This will allow us to further live in the fantasy bubble we are creating for ourselves.

Its much more strategic than that. The leaders on the right are ensuring people that Romney will win in order to feed into the post-Obama victory narrative that the President only won because of “voter fraud.” Considering the tea party’s stranglehold on state legislatures around the country I suspect that we’re going to see even more draconian voter laws passed on the state level in a 2nd Obama term. Certain states will try and post some kind of income limit, others may attempt to reinstitute civics tests at the polls. Others will require three forms of state ID, or require an NRA ID. It will get pretty crazy.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Paddington on November 5, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Obama is still negative acting like the challenger. Romney giving great speeches in former dem states to 10s of thousands. Yeah, I’d say the internals are looking mighty fine for Romney.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 10:22 AM

This board is filled with the most unrealistic bunch of partisans imaginable. You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Not quite. While I don’t think McCain threw the election, although it sure seemed that way to me, I don’t think he played to win.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Trollcott means… DO NOT FEED THE TROLL…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Still polling us out here in God’s Country.(REDREDRED Western VA) 1st poll call was at 8:15, just had the second one at 10:19….Pretty sure the 1st one was from Romney, CERTAIN the second was from Zero.

graywaiter on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Breaking News: SarahPac donates $5,000 to Romney two days before election! Wow…I am sure that puts him over top! Kudus to Sarah, George W., and Pat Robertson for keeping their pieholes shut during the election.

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

There’s going to be a lot of wailing and gashing of teeth when the Dems find out that they’ve been wishcasting instead of actually scientifically polling. When you oversample Dems, undersample Republicans, ignore the independents, and don’t account for voter enthusiasm, the truth is going to be like a dousing with an ice bucket.

I almost feel sorry for them. Not really. But I’ll pray for their mental health.

Tennman on November 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Two so far, TROLLCOT

ShadowsPawn on November 5, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I predict Mitt Obama or Barack Romney will win, and that all of us will lose.

Dante on November 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Yeah well…. when your avowed ideology is a form of anarchy which has never been tried in any culture above the population of a tribal squat,..

Life is full of disappointments..

I’ll take a booming economy, progress on paying down the debt, and a resurgence of optimism in America over your view anyday of the week.

Mitt can do that, because most Americans want him to succeed, he has the middle and the right at this point…

the anarchist-experiment crowd isn’t a factor.

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I suspect that we’re going to see even more draconian voter laws passed on the state level in a 2nd Obama term. Certain states will try and post some kind of income limit, others may attempt to reinstitute civics tests at the polls. Others will require three forms of state ID, or require an NRA ID. It will get pretty crazy.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Are you on drugs. You can’t be this delusional even as a lib. I’m going to give you the benefit of doubt and think you are just trolling with that. Otherwise I’d have to consider you a real nut case and ignore any posting you ever make again because you live in a fantasy land in your head.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Posters who are denying that HotAir believed McCain was going to win are just being dishonest. I have one word for you: Manlyrash. Manly organized a mob of posters to scream and yell at any conservative who dared utter “yeah, looks like Obama is going to win.” But intellectual honesty ain’t exactly HotAir’s most robust export.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Trollcott means… DO NOT FEED THE TROLL…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Just popped in for a few minutes, was only here for a quick visit yesterday… so, we aren’t addressing the liberal trolls?…

that all trolls?

I ask because some fall into the ABR group,. more Paul fan than liberal, though sometimes they sound remarkably similar.

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I suspect that we’re going to see even more draconian voter laws passed on the state level in a 2nd Obama term. Certain states will try and post some kind of income limit, others may attempt to reinstitute civics tests at the polls. Others will require three forms of state ID, or require an NRA ID. It will get pretty crazy.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Please tell me you don’t really lecture students. Are you f:-)cking nuts?

I took small business management in a community college last fall and the bastard still talked liberal politics into that.

smoothsailing on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Trollcott means… DO NOT FEED THE TROLL…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

I like feeding Trolls. Many are cute and fun to feed. Others are just so delusional that it’s hard to feed them. Besides, how do I know you’re not a Troll trying to deflect serious conversation by saying don’t feed trolls? In which case you failed because I did feed you.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Are you on drugs. You can’t be this delusional even as a lib. I’m going to give you the benefit of doubt and think you are just trolling with that. Otherwise I’d have to consider you a real nut case and ignore any posting you ever make again because you live in a fantasy land in your head.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:28 AM

No doubt you make similar claims whenever posters around here used to predict that Obama wouldn’t let there be a 2012 election. Remember that little bit of conspira-crazy. Hint, you can tell who used to say that kind of stuff by the posters who think Romney will win California. No, I don’t really think that those laws will all pass. I think, though that there’s going to be an enormous “voter fraud” hysteria if Obama wins again.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

I’m in Colorado and my phone rings constantly from “toll free” numbers. We don’t answer the phone. We’ve already voted. Let this stop.

COgirl on November 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Posters who are denying that HotAir believed McCain was going to win are just being dishonest. I have one word for you: Manlyrash. Manly organized a mob of posters to scream and yell at any conservative who dared utter “yeah, looks like Obama is going to win.” But intellectual honesty ain’t exactly HotAir’s most robust export.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:29 AM

You’re pretty stupid. Your point contradicts your point.

smoothsailing on November 5, 2012 at 10:33 AM

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Be a man/woman/think and reply to who you want. Don’t let others decided who you should reply to.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Yup, ANY TROLL… KOOLAID has all the important details, but I believe the trollcott is in effect until Wednesday Morning.

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Romney will win in California

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Now that will warrant a mushroom cloud screencap.

BuckeyeSam on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Opps. man/woman/thing it should have been. Curse these computers that can’t read my mind.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:35 AM

OK. We want to vote Romney/Ryan in so bad we can taste it.

Now the question is, are there millions of people that feel the same? Say, 51% in the majority of states? Are we the ones that have rejected socialism-lite, but the dullard majority like it just fine?

What kind of country do we live in? We are about to find out.

KCsecurity1976 on November 5, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Whoever gets the most stuff right should get a Hot Air T-shirt or something.

Nethicus on November 5, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Not familiar with trollcot. Is lipfreezepoorfry a troll officially?

smoothsailing on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

A week ago Romney would have won. Easily.

Ever since the “Obama/Christie bipartisan walk” things have gone terribly wrong.

Witness the Rasmussen Presidential Approval Index. Obama has his best numbers since early 2009.

This had better be an epic Republican turnout, in every swing state, or else.

Question: Are northern Floridian Romney voters, en masse, willing to stand in the rain for hours tomorrow? 50% will be highly motivated. But what about the other 50%?

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I suspect that we’re going to see even more draconian voter laws passed on the state level in a 2nd Obama term. Certain states will try and post some kind of income limit, others may attempt to reinstitute civics tests at the polls. Others will require three forms of state ID, or require an NRA ID. It will get pretty crazy.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

That’s nutty. Stop trying to equate common sense voter ID laws (god forbid you have to show you are who you say you are when casting a ballot!) with things like income limits.

I will say, though, that I wouldn’t mind a very basic civics test be administered prior to being registered to vote. If you can’t name the three branches of gov’t, or who the current vp is, I don’t want you helping to determine who the next leader of the free world will be. I don’t want people who pay more attention to American Idol than they do what’s happening in DC voting, period (and that goes for people on BOTH sides).

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 10:39 AM

No doubt you make similar claims whenever posters around here used to predict that Obama wouldn’t let there be a 2012 election. Remember that little bit of conspira-crazy. Hint, you can tell who used to say that kind of stuff by the posters who think Romney will win California. No, I don’t really think that those laws will all pass. I think, though that there’s going to be an enormous “voter fraud” hysteria if Obama wins again.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

No doubt you have no clue what I think and never will. If you didn’t think those laws will be passed why state them? It was trolling pure and simple. OKay, so that now you have established that you are nothing more than a Troll and not a lunatic I can happily read your posts for the amusement they provide. I may even occasionally reply but only for today and maybe the next few. I only come out of lurker mode for elections.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Liar…

trollcott

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Like I said yesterday on the Mitt’s Likeability thread:

You heard it here first. By the time polls close east of the Mississippi, Mitt will be trending 2 to 1 over Oboobi with 200+ EVs. By the time they close in the Central Time Zones, he will have 270 in the bag. Refute that gumby.

AH_C on November 4, 2012 at 2:41 PM

I think Mittness will break 330, even 345 if a couple blue states upset. Landslide baby!

AH_C on November 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I predict that if Romney wins the media will suddenly notice homeless people again.

Dan_Yul on November 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Not familiar with trollcot. Is lipfreezepoorfry a troll officially?

smoothsailing on November 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Trollcott made HA a really nice place to hang around yesterday. Too bad I had things to do.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Be a man/woman/think and reply to who you want. Don’t let others decided who you should reply to.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Take your seat in the Troll sock boat and welcome to the TROLLCOTT…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Its much more strategic than that. The leaders on the right are ensuring people that Romney will win in order to feed into the post-Obama victory narrative that the President only won because of “voter fraud.” Considering the tea party’s stranglehold on state legislatures around the country I suspect that we’re going to see even more draconian voter laws passed on the state level in a 2nd Obama term. Certain states will try and post some kind of income limit, others may attempt to reinstitute civics tests at the polls. Others will require three forms of state ID, or require an NRA ID. It will get pretty crazy.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Of course….voter suppression is the solution to negative voter demographics. The Republican party is becoming the party of the old and white, and America is changing. Be on the lookout for unsubstantiated third-hand reports on election night of voter fraud.

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Yup, ANY TROLL… KOOLAID has all the important details, but I believe the trollcott is in effect until Wednesday Morning.

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Interesting.. I read a bit on it yesterday, and got a chuckle when somebody pointed out the trolls went into meltdown mode when they were ignored..

It’ll be nice though, to have an actual conversation with an adult, instead of constantly having a troll say something so outrageously stupid, the replies go on for two pages..

I’m in.

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 10:45 AM

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:20 AM

As Joe Biden would say, I have a one syllable word for you, Ohio…

How do you expect the dems to win with independents giving Mitt a double digit support?

Every election dems have won, they have won with overwhelming independents…now they are gone, so who replaces them?

More minority turnout? That’s not happening…more women, that’s not happening…more “white” that’s not happening, more union, nope…more business owners, hardly…more registered dems, just the opposite, less Republican’s, you know that ain’t even close.

So where does the dems pick up the lost independent vote?

No one has answered that question…

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

But intellectual honesty ain’t exactly HotAir’s most robust export.

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:29 AM

rogerb…another for the archive. For the hot days of summer..when we need power for the irony-meter to spin like a oscillating fan.

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It will be Chick-Fil-A Day tomorrow…one million times over.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Romney 374
Obama 164

Romney in a landslide. Not only will he win every swing state, he’ll win Oregon. And the sweet cherry on top, the Cook county folks will not carry the state, and to his own embarrassment, Obama will lose Illinois.

This will be a rout.

Fish on November 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I predict that if Romney wins the media will suddenly notice homeless people again.

Dan_Yul on November 5, 2012 at 10:41 AM

It will be Bush all over again. Non stop 24/7 MSM hate for him. Dancing woman parts, bloody woman laying in the streets, giant puppets, major end of the world as we know it because of the brand of TP he uses, blah, blah, blah

Of course F&F, Libya, unemployment, wars and everything else will be blamed on him and the MSM will demand heads.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

I’m in Colorado and my phone rings constantly from “toll free” numbers. We don’t answer the phone. We’ve already voted. Let this stop.

COgirl on November 5, 2012 at 10:32 AM

One just showed up on my caller ID that said “American Voice”. I didn’t answer either. I’m in PA, and glad to not be noticed until a week ago!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Newsflash: Romney has not flip-flopped on a major issue in 42 hours. A new record!!

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Romney will win in California

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Sounds weird, but I would not put it past the realm of possibilities.

I do think there will be one or 2 shockers tomorrow, and I am not talking about PA, MI, or MN. With people having trouble getting to the polls, I could see where NJ goes for Romney.

Another thing, (and I know this is a pie in sky dream) upstate NY, will go for Romney, but it waits to be seen ifthe Dems in NYC can get enough people to the poll to counteract that. If dems in NYC have trouble getting to polls, the race could be over by 9PM EST.

ConservativePartyNow on November 5, 2012 at 10:51 AM

500-Admirals-and-Generals-Endorse-Gov-Romney

Oh yeah!

plutorocks on November 5, 2012 at 10:52 AM

my comments on the poll:

Relative landslide will carry downticket Republicans in tight Senate races. Almost no change in the House. A good night for conservatives. If they can govern conservatively, will be a good few decades for conservatives.

I AM hopeful. I think the media is going to be shocked at the results, and a lot of gnashing of teeth at how the results dont match the skewed polling data (D+5…really?) Expect MSNBC to go all in with conspiracy theories, while others will slowly see the writing on the wall. Election called before midnight.

Coolidge_Conservative on November 5, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Take your seat in the Troll sock boat and welcome to the TROLLCOTT…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I don’t have a freaking idea what you are droning on about but, I’ll tell you one thing. I’ll reply to whomever I want and I’m not following any fraked up rules cobbled together by a bunch of self appointed forum bullies. In other words if you are not part of the management I could care less about your rules.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Romney 374
Obama 164

Romney in a landslide. Not only will he win every swing state, he’ll win Oregon. And the sweet cherry on top, the Cook county folks will not carry the state, and to his own embarrassment, Obama will lose Illinois.

This will be a rout.

Fish on November 5, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Last week, perhaps.

This week, ever since the “Obama/Christie bipartisan walk”, forget about it.

Iowa and Wisconsin tend to vote in lock-step with each other. The Marquette University poll of last week and the Des Moines Register poll released this weekend are further illustrating that effect. Both polls indicate those two states are lost for Romney. (Reminder: Marquette nailed the Scott recall result on the nose.)

There are few paths left. AND northern Florida must be willing to stand in the rain for hours tomorrow (ALL of them).

Carnac on November 5, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Pain.

Ben Hur on November 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I could care less about your rules.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Bless your heart, I guess lonely people need companionship from whomever will give it.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

So where does the dems pick up the lost independent vote?

No one has answered that question…

right2bright on November 5, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Sorry to pop your bubble….The Mitt-heads keep relying on polls saying we are +12 with independents, +9 with independents, that is why we are going to win. From the same polls that say he is losing! There are almost no independents left! People may even say they are technically independents, but they have an opinion that is registered in the data. Cherry-picking the “good” data in polls that show Mitt is losing is pretty desperate.

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Romney wins popular, loses electoral. Left bursts into flames trying to square the “selected not elected” circle. Obama name-checks Dubya, again, in inauguration speech and spends the next four years continuing the worst aspects of Bush policy while blaming him for the consequences.

spmat on November 5, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Bless your heart, I guess lonely people need companionship from whomever will give it.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Sock puppets…

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Pain.

Ben Hur on November 5, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Ha Ha! Good one.

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 10:59 AM

http://hotair.com/archives/2008/11/04/aol-hot-seat-poll-your-prediction/

Since the people who replied back to my earlier post were polite to me, I will stay polite as well. And maybe some of them legitimately don’t remember what the vast majority of Hot Air posters thought in 2008 before the eve of the election. In any event, here’s the link to the poll in 2008. Unfortunately, at least when I tried to open it, the final poll results didn’t load. But if you read the comments that people made at the that time, just about everybody had McCain winning. My favorite was in one of the posts that one poster rationalized the win by saying, “McCain steals California,” as if this was the NBA playoffs, and the visiting team stole a game on the opponent’s floor to get the advantage. This ain’t sports.

asc85 on November 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Be a man/woman/think and reply to who you want. Don’t let others decided who you should reply to.

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:34 AM

That’s kinda intense to say about a voluntary movement designed to neuter the trolls by starvation. Agree or not.. but come on..

Nobody here can TELL me what I can say..

including you in a transparent attempt to guilt people into supporting you.

Join in or not..

But this isn’t Yorktown, and you don’t establish anything by not participating. You simply give the trolls what they seek.. the attention their outrageously stupid comments are designed to get..

I choose to join in a pretty ingenious strategy..

The meltdown gummy had was hilarious…

mark81150 on November 5, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Revved and wired here in one of the reddest counties, in one of the Union’s reddest states.
President Romney?
Yes. We. CAN!!

annoyinglittletwerp on November 5, 2012 at 11:03 AM

So if Romney wins California, what are the odds that Pelosi loses?

Yeah I know, but a girl can dream can’t she?

Lily on November 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Romney will win in California

You heard it here first

BDU-33 on November 5, 2012 at 10:10 AM

ROTFLMAO…

A lot of people, in my opinion, are going to be surprised to see California in that column… Call it a combination of the Brady effect (where did you think Tom Brady was from anyhow?) and the Cascade effect, (California Dems not voting in record numbers because Mitt is so far ahead by 5pm PST)

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I’ve actually been saying this for months… o_O

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 10:13 AM

CA confuses me. Didn’t they pass a referendum that whichever POTUS candidate wins the EV also takes CA regardless of CA’s actual vote?

I didn’t count CA in my EV count for the HA poll, but given the two quotes above, that struck me as possible, given their on the West Coast. If CA Dems see Romney already got 271, many just might stay home because of that referendum.

idalily on November 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Frank Enstine on November 5, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Try to be a team player. If you must engage a troll, at the very least don’t cut and paste their garbage so it is perpetuated in the thread thereby letting them dominate the thread. Just address them by their name.

slickwillie2001 on November 5, 2012 at 11:05 AM

NEWSFLASH!!!!

The odds are changing quickly today my friends. Obama is now an amazing 4 to 1 favorite. The smart money keeps piling into Obama futures. The global futures market can not keep up. The over/under on electoral count has moved up to 302.5 for Obama. Wow! Stunning!!

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama odds increase to a 4:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Thur 3:0:1
Fri: 3.25:1
sat: 3.25:1
Sun: 3.5:1
Mon early: 3.75:1
Mon later: 4.0:1
Tue: Happy Election Day!
Wed: Stock up on guns and ammo freakout day!

Obama is now an 10 to 1 favorite in Nevada, and a 7 to 1 favorite in Wisconsin. Add in Ohio electoral votes (3.5:1 favorite) and it is all over with 271 votes. Romney is only a favorite in Florida and North Carolina. Obama has led this election from day one.

At his lowest point, Obama was about a 1.5:1 favorite, but he has been increasing ever since to the current 4.0 to 1 favorite status. Remember all of the sites, pundits, pollsters, etc that have fed you misinformation the whole time during this election cycle. The next cycle you will be more prepared to understand what it really going on.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Final prediction,

Romney will win: VA, FL, NC, CO

Obama will win: MI, PA, NH, WI, NV, IA, OH

Tally: Obama 281, Romney 257
Popular vote, Romney 51.2, Obama 49.8

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Are you convinced, then, that Obama will lose the popular vote while winning the electoral college? Because I think he still has a chance for a popular vote victory if he manages to win the states you set out.

You and I agree on the swing states Obama will have won if he manages to win tomorrow. While I think it’s more likely that Romney will win, I can easily see where you are coming from with your prediction.

On a side note, while I’m cool with Trollcott in general. This, to my mind, is not a trolling post. It strikes me as a perfectly legitimate prediction for tomorrow’s outcome. Obviously, though, I’m more optimistic on Romney’s chances than libfreeordie is.

JimLennon on November 5, 2012 at 11:08 AM

CA confuses me. Didn’t they pass a referendum that whichever POTUS candidate wins the EV also takes CA regardless of CA’s actual vote?

I didn’t count CA in my EV count for the HA poll, but given the two quotes above, that struck me as possible, given their on the West Coast. If CA Dems see Romney already got 271, many just might stay home because of that referendum.

idalily on November 5, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Yes, the California state assembly (Not the actual citizens) did pass the popular vote amendment, however, as written in that legislation itself, it does not go into legal effect until 51% of the states adopt it. So far, its not even close.

SWalker on November 5, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Final prediction,

Romney will win: VA, FL, NC, CO

Obama will win: MI, PA, NH, WI, NV, IA, OH

Tally: Obama 281, Romney 257
Popular vote, Romney 51.2, Obama 49.8

In the spirit of a long lost lib poster, COUNT IT!

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Sweet, sweet schadenfreude. I can’t wait till tomorrow night. Of course, I seriously doubt you will be around any longer after the landslide for Romney.

makattak on November 5, 2012 at 11:12 AM

TROLLCOTT!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Please, no one thought McCain would win. You weren’t even around then.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

To be fair, I think Ed did, but it was one of those “he COULD pull it off… Maybe” but I don’t think he really bought into it honestly, given how close he predicted, if memory serves.

I feel completely different than I did in 08. The mood is different,I can feel the fire in people this go around. Mitt will win. My bigger concern is the afterwards, we need to keep his feet to the fire, because I think he will slip first chance he can.

Gatsu on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I thought McCain would win. I thought Palin would be enough to do the trick.

I have been fearful all this cycle. But I think Mitt will win. His organization is amazing. At the grassroots level, the GOTV effort is overwhelming. And, contra McCain, Mitt wants it. And wants it for the right reasons.

davidk on November 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

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