Hot Air Survey: Your Election Predictions

posted at 9:21 am on November 5, 2012 by Patrick Ishmael


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I predict the American for the win.

Electrongod on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Steelers 49 – Bark 3

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Should add PA to the Romney will win… list.

crash72 on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Great survey, Patrick!

herm2416 on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

I’ll go with the guy who actually loves his country, knows how to fix the economy and won’t leave our people to die while he flies off to a campaign fundraiser with Jay Z.

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

I’m voting for the Home Team.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

First…on the poll

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

First…on the poll

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

or maybe not

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Peter Jennings described the American electorate as “two-year olds on a tantrum” after the ’94 elections.

Will Brian Williams break down, cry and throw his stapler at the camera when his boyfriend Barry gets thrown out of office?

Can’t wait to see.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

So, you’re voting for Obama then?

/Jim Messina

Left Coast Right Mind on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 AM

It’s too early for eeyore mode, but that’s how I responded. :/

Jeddite on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Patrick, thanks for the appeteaser before the main event tomorrow!

Fallon on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Wednesday morning “gloat fest”.

listens2glenn on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Like 2008, the majority of people on Hot Air will make predictions with their heart, but claim it’s with their head. In 2008, according to the VAST MAJORITY of Hot Air readers, McCain was EASILY going to win, despite all objective polls to the contrary. I think Romney has a much stronger chance than McCain, and he’s my prediction this year (last year I predicted Obama, although I certainly wanted McCain to win), but I don’t think it will be a slamdunk…as many on this board will end up saying, I’m sure.

asc85 on November 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

.
I think Chris precedes Brian, on that score.

listens2glenn on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

No PA in the voting? I pick Romney to win PA.

bbordwell on November 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

It’s too early for eeyore mode, but that’s how I responded. :/

Jeddite on November 5, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Me too. Don’t worry.

lorien1973 on November 5, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Why can’t Mourdock and Akin win?

tdarrington on November 5, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I predicted Romney with 306 electoral votes three weeks ago. Now I’m begining to think I may have lowballed it.

I could live with that.

parke on November 5, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Hot Air Survey: Your Election Predictions


…R E V E N G E…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 9:31 AM

This board is filled with the most unrealistic bunch of partisans imaginable. You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Results page wanted!

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Thank you Patrick
Can’t seem to vote on Android at this time

Lawn gnome Reagan will be appearing in PA for Mitt

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Oregon could go Romney? Ready to move out of Calif.

plutorocks on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

On this thread, people can say which states they think Romney will win or not win. Throwing out an EV total is like throwing darts.

How about it? Key question states now are: PA, OH, MI, WI, and MN.

Dextrous on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

If Romney wins Oregon I will grow a mustache.

PortlandJon on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Like 2008, the majority of people on Hot Air will make predictions with their heart, but claim it’s with their head. In 2008, according to the VAST MAJORITY of Hot Air readers, McCain was EASILY going to win, despite all objective polls to the contrary. I think Romney has a much stronger chance than McCain, and he’s my prediction this year (last year I predicted Obama, although I certainly wanted McCain to win), but I don’t think it will be a slamdunk…as many on this board will end up saying, I’m sure.

asc85 on November 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

I can’t speak for anyone else on here, but I did not expect McCain to win in 2008. I didn’t think Obama would get 365 EVs, but 270 seemed like a walk in the park. The problem is none of us liked McCain or trusted him. His debate performances were lackluster, he undercut his own candidacy by defending Obama on the campaign trail and refusing to go after his record and radical past(aside from Bill Ayers way after it was too late), he voted for TARP, he talked about bailing out underwater homeowners, and his own staff stabbed Palin in the back before the election was over despite her being the sole reason anyone showed up to his rallies.

The only thing I remember people on our side thinking would save McCain’s hide in 2008 was the huge number of supposedly disgruntled Hillary supporters who were gonna cross over and vote GOP out of spite. Personally, I never believed for one second that part of the electorate ever existed and the results 4 years ago bore that out.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Romney – 316 EVs. 53-46% popular vote.

beancounter on November 5, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I believe Romney wins 320-218.

crash72 on September 13, 2012 at 10:23 PM

crash72 on November 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

This board is filled with the most unrealistic bunch of partisans imaginable. You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

.
The “gloat fest” is starting, already.

BRING IT ON ! . . . I can take it. : )

listens2glenn on November 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

Prediction:

Romney wins with 295 electoral votes. He also wins the popular vote 52/47.

Romney carries: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado, plus the usual red states, for a total of 31 states (I think).

Obama carries: Pennsylvania (by less than 1%), Michigan, Nevada, and Minnesota (each by between 3-5%).

Yes, I do think Romney is capable of winning in a near landslide, but I’m not confident enough to predict it.

And yes, I also think Obama could still squeak this one out. If he does, it’s with no more than 51% of the vote and no more than 281 electoral votes. In this case, I would think Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire would all narrowly go Obama by less than 2%.

But my official prediction is Romney 52/47 with 295 electoral votes. Closer than I’d like, but still good enough for a solid, undisputable win. Kind of like winning a football game by 2 points.

JimLennon on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Playing around with the map, I have Romney at 290. I think that’s too optimistic. However, I believe it will either be extremely close or a landslide. Nothing in-between.

joekenha on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

This board is filled with the most unrealistic bunch of partisans imaginable. You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Please, no one thought McCain would win. You weren’t even around then.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

This board is filled with the most unrealistic bunch of partisans imaginable. You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

First, I didn’t think McCain would win. Secondly, when are you going to realize this is not 2008? When CNN needs to use a D+11 sample just to come up with a tied race, the question is no longer will Obama lose but rather by how much?

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Needed option of :

Obama cancels election at midnight tonight due to riots in Sandy ravaged region.

LoganSix on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Where can I vote for Fred?

faraway on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I think Romney will win.

But no matter who wins, someone’s reality will be imploded tomorrow. Just hope it isn’t mine!

Chuckles3 on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Nate Silver’s abacus now has Obama at 496.6324739% chance of winning.

mudskipper on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Activate Operation Trollcott :)

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

asc85 on November 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Funny, I don’t remember that. I remember people trying to convince themselves McCain was not heading to an embarrassing lose with anecdotal evidence.

Phoenician on November 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

I predict Mitt Obama or Barack Romney will win, and that all of us will lose.

Dante on November 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

or maybe not

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

:)

itsspideyman on November 5, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Gumby, your problem is you are comparing this to 2008 before Obama had the dismal record of his first term. You need to compare to 2010 midterm elections to have a more realistic view. Things have only gotten worse since 2010 so don’t think anything has changed.

Ellis on November 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Man, trollcott on this thread too. Whew, it takes effort to ignore this much!

Oh, survey done. It’ll be 52-47 Romney wins.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama odds increase to a 3.75:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Thur 3:0:1
Fri: 3.25:1
sat: 3.25:1
Sun: 3.5:1
Mon: 3.75:1
Tue: Happy Election Day!
Wed: Stock up on guns and ammo freakout day!

Obama is now an 10 to 1 favorite in Nevada, and a 7 to 1 favorite in Wisconsin. Add in Ohio electoral votes (3.5:1 favorite) and it is all over with 271 votes. Romney is only a favorite in Florida and North Carolina. Obama has led this election from day one.

At his lowest point, Obama was about a 1.5:1 favorite, but he has been increasing ever since to the current 3.5 to 1 favorite status. Remember all of the sites, pundits, pollsters, etc that have fed you misinformation the whole time during this election cycle. The next cycle you will be more prepared to understand what it really going on.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Ellis on November 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Hi Ellis,

We’ve got this thing going called trollcott. All that we ask is that you not engage or quote or name the troll. You can do it. Believe!

Hot Air was amazing last night. The trolls just left without their food. Please join us in our boycott of the troll.

TROLLCOTT!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Please, no one thought McCain would win. You weren’t even around then.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Nobody realistically thought McCain would win. The thing is, this election doesn’t have the feel of 2008. People are literally chomping at the bit to get out there and vote the rat-eared wonder out of office.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Things have only gotten worse since 2010 so don’t think anything has changed.

Ellis on November 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Well which is it? Things have gotten worse or nothing has changed?

Dante on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

TROLLCOTT

OmahaConservative on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Living well and being happy is the best revenge.

“Imagine what Barack can do in 4 more years?” ~ Michelle Obama

Or,

“America is about to come roaring back!” ~ Mitt Romney

The choice is pretty clear.

Fallon on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Larry Schweikart@LSchweikart
Whoa! Report last night in WARREN COUNTY OH of a line three hours long. This is the reddest of OH red. Wow.

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Keep calm and finish him.

http://chicagoboyz.net/wp-content/uploads/Keep-Calm-snake.gif

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Trollcott! You’ll love it. It’s as tasty as chick-fil-a.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

asc85 on November 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

All I remember about ’08 was how McCain was a lousy candidate that got conservatives to vote for him by selecting Palin. I’d wager more than HALF of his votes were actually votes for the ‘Cuda.

search4truth on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Patrick, still getting white screen…

OmahaConservative on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I predict a major breakout of head explosions on MSNBC starting around 9PM tomorrow night, culminating with a foaming-at-the-mouth Tingles Matthews being dragged away in a straitjacket to rubber-room basket-weaving class at Happydale Rest Home.

pilamaye on November 5, 2012 at 9:46 AM

“Imagine what Barack can do in 4 more years?” ~ Michelle Obama

Fallon on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I did. Now I need to drink a fifth of Clontarf to keep myself from digging holes in the yard.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM

You guys thought McCain would win, the polls were wrong, and the only poll that mattered was on election day.

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I never thought McCain would win. I hoped he would, of course. But after the disaster that was Bush’s second term, plus the financial collapse, plus McCain suspending his campaign, plus Palin coming off as an idiot, it wasn’t hard to see which way the wind was blowing. By mid-October I had pretty much resigned myself to Obama’s winning.

This is not 2008, however. While I do not share the optimism of my fellow posters who think that Romney will win this in a cakewalk, Romney is in much stronger position than McCain ever dreamed of being, and Obama is a lot weaker now than he was four years ago. I also think the people predicting an Obama win are too optimistic about Democrat turnout greatly exceeding Republican turnout.

I give Obama about a 40% chance of winning this thing. If he does, though, it will be by the skin of his teeth.

JimLennon on November 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Nice to see you Patrick. ; )

Bmore on November 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Good survey, but I wish you would’ve added what station we will be watching coverage on. That will be Fox News, until Romney is declared the winner. Then I’m switching to MSNBC and popping popcorn. I hope I don’t choke while laughing.

NebCon on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Please, no one thought McCain would win. You weren’t even around then.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

To be fair, I think Ed did, but it was one of those “he COULD pull it off… Maybe” but I don’t think he really bought into it honestly, given how close he predicted, if memory serves.

I feel completely different than I did in 08. The mood is different,I can feel the fire in people this go around. Mitt will win. My bigger concern is the afterwards, we need to keep his feet to the fire, because I think he will slip first chance he can.

Gatsu on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Either Romney wins by at least 3% or it is stolen with 2008 Al Franken scenarios playing in every battleground state for the next 30 days.

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

revenge for not taking us down fast enough

audiotom on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Romney 390 Obama 148

hawkdriver on June 22, 2012 at 12:20 PM

I’ll stick with this from June.

hawkdriver on November 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Betting sites? Seriously? Umm, no. All signs point to a huge Romney victory. But by all means, throw your money away. Just don’t forget that to make a bet means someone else is betting against you.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Trollcott! You’ll love it. It’s as tasty as chick-fil-a.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Go easy on jamegumb. He/she/it has about a day and a half left before the election is called for Romney.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Gumby, your problem is you are comparing this to 2008 before Obama had the dismal record of his first term.

Why don’t the polls show obama tanking due to his dismal record?

They can’t all be wrong.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

JimLennon on November 5, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Trollcott in effect. Please don’t respond to the troll.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Will Brian Williams break down, cry and throw his stapler at the camera when his boyfriend Barry gets thrown out of office?

Can’t wait to see.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

“…they switched from the Swingline to the Boston stapler, but I kept my Swingline stapler because it didn’t bind up as much, and I kept the staples for the Swingline stapler and it’s not okay because if they take my stapler then I’ll set the building on fire…” Milton Waddams

Marine WX on November 5, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Poor Obama..his firewall states of IA, CO, VA and OH and FL are smouldering and in ashes…kind of like the consulate he abandoned in Benghazi.

The flames have spread to NH, PA, MN, WI and MI…and Oregon. He’s bring a squirt-gun to battle a 5-alarm fire.

Obama is finished.

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Why don’t the polls show obama tanking due to his dismal record?

They can’t all be wrong.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

They’re not wrong….if Democrat turnout exceeds 2008 levels while GOP voters stay home in even larger droves. Even you’ve admitted that’ll never happen.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

The shocker of the night will be when the networks finally have to do the inevitable and call IL for Romney.

Northwoods on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Ignore ZippyZ too :)

22044 on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

What did that get you?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Four years of hell. An American awakening. The smarts to never, ever, elect a rabid ideologue again.

You’ll see soon enough.

salem on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

It might also be interesting at this point to list what predictions the pundits have made.

For example, on ABC’s “This Week” yesterday, George Will predicted a Romney win, but all of the other panelists predicted an Obama win.

Dextrous on November 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

How do we know if we were counted? My zip is 68131…

OmahaConservative on November 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

My ultra liberal, super Democrat friend who would never I’m a million years vote for an evil Rethuglican told me that this year all she cares about is her children’s future so she’s voting for Romney.

He’ll has frozen over. Romney wins.

Gilda on November 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

TROLLCOTT!!!!!

OmahaConservative on November 5, 2012 at 9:52 AM

My biggest concern is that because the Dems realize that this election may substantially damage what is their actual business — government — they are going to make an extraordinary effort to drag low involvement, passive “voters” to the polls. If so, that could result in a turnout that matches some of the Dem-skewed polls, regardless of what people paying attention may have decided about the candidates.

I suspect we’ll have a pretty good idea of whether that’s the case when the Mass. and Connecticut polls close early in the evening — in both cases, you’ve got a dog fight at the Senate level. If the Dems have succeeded in goosing their numbers in those races, I suspect they’ll have been equally successful nationwide.

FiveG on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

listens2glenn on November 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Ellis on November 5, 2012 at 9:41 AM


T R O L L C O T T…!!!
.
.
.
T H A T particular T R O L L…!!!
please!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

ZippyZ on November 5, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Gamblers are idiots, that’s why they gamble.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Why can’t Mourdock and Akin win?

tdarrington on November 5, 2012 at 9:31 AM

That wasn’t the poll question. Patrick didn’t assume it’s an either/or situation. Which is “more likely”

lorien1973 on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

If Romney wins Oregon I will grow a mustache.

PortlandJon on November 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Me too, and I’m a girl! Oh, thanks for what you said to one of the trolls last night in defense of me and Cindy. We were just laughing because he tries to make it seem as if HE was personally recruited by AP and Ed to give the opposing view. Talk about a big ego!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I realize that. But watching it flail and leave last night with trollcott fully armed and operational was priceless.

Trollcott – because the mods won’t just ban him

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

The shocker of the night will be when the networks finally have to do the inevitable and call IL for Romney.

Northwoods on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

MSNBC will be the best. A very very quiet Matthews will suddenly excuse himself, go offstage, and then you’ll hear a single gunshot followed by panicked screaming and the screen suddenly going to test pattern.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

What I think Ill see Romney by 4% 280+ but what I hope Ill see Romney gets enough EVs to make Ohio a moot point so the entire thing doesnt drag on and on with court challenges and charges of election stealing. Not that the radical far left wont do that anyway with their bizzare conspiracy theorys. Im voting for my country but seeing a liberal meltdown would be gravy

ldbgcoleman on November 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Please, no one thought McCain would win. You weren’t even around then.

NoDonkey on November 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Well, there was manly rash ;) Oh how I wanted for him to know something the rest of us didn’t…

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

If Rombo wins Minnesota I will not ride any motorcycles for the entire winter.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

FiveG on November 5, 2012 at 9:53 AM

They always make an extraordinary effort. But when republicans show up the republican wins. We will win big on Tuesday.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Romney 51-48 within + or – half a point.

I have no idea how that will translate electorally. I really don’t.

I’m just hoping Virginia has recovered its sanity.

Bat Chain Puller on November 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:45 AM

From your link:

Click on the picture to enlarge. There is a Gadsden flag on a coal barge. Kinda awesome.

Fallon on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Romney landslide. Sí se puede (patada en los huevos).

ElectricPhase on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Here’s another question:

How would you compare the tone of the posts this year to 2008? Discuss.

natasha333 on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

I don’t care how much Romney wins by, so long as it’s outside the margin of fraud.

KingGold on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Hot Air Survey: Your Election Predictions

A tremendous Azz beating of Leftists everywhere.

ToddPA on November 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

salem on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:51 AM


…it’s RABID and there’s no vaccine…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Personally, I can’t wait to vote out this disgrace of a President tomorrow and then drive to Chick-Fil-A and order some tasty hate chicken. Their secret recipe is liberal outrage.

search4truth on November 5, 2012 at 9:57 AM

GOPRanknFile on November 5, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Three hour line for who?

Cindy Munford on November 5, 2012 at 9:58 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wlOUqC1MtPM

libfreeordie on November 5, 2012 at 9:58 AM

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