CNN poll: All tied at 49% …

posted at 8:41 am on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s all tied up, CNN reports, with just two days left in the presidential race.  Mitt Romney and Barack Obama both get 49%, and tie on every major indicator.  And this might be good news for Barack Obama, until they look at the sample (via Twitchy):

It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

The poll is the fourth national non-partisan, live operator survey released Sunday to indicate the battle for the presidency either a dead heat or virtually tied. A Politico/George Washington University survey has it tied at 48%; an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%; and the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 48%.

Only this poll turns out to be bad news for Barack Obama.  Why?  According to CNN’s internals of this likely-voter survey, Obama doesn’t come close to tying Romney in one key indicator — independent voters.  According to the sample data, Romney leads independents by a whopping twenty-two points, 59/37.  How can Romney have a 22-point lead among independents but still only get to a 49-all tie with Obama?

Here’s how:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Yes, that’s a D/R/I of 41/30/29.  In 2008, a big turnout election for Democrats, the D/R/I was 39/32/29, and Obama won independents by eight points. Despite Republicans having a five-point edge in this very poll among those “extremely enthusiastic” about voting, the CNN poll has added four points to the Democrats’ advantage in this sample.

Let’s also take a look at the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama got a +14 in the gender gap, with a +13 among women and a +1 among men.  In this poll, Romney wins men by nine (53/44) and Obama wins women by eight (53/45) for a gender gap advantage of +1 for Romney.

So we are expected to believe that since 2008, (a) Obama has lost thirty points in the gap with independents, (b) Obama has lost fifteen points in the gender gap, and (c) Obama is still just four points below his 2008 share of the electorate?  Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5

BTW, I expect lots of fake exit polls coming out in the afternoon showing Obama way ahead, like we saw in 2004. Don’t beleive them.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Yeah, historically Obama always over performs in exit polls. Always.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

CNN poll also says Romney wins only 59% of conservative vote, while Obama takes 37% of that and 59% of moderates. (Libs go Obama 94% to 5%).

Possible?

_RobRob on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I believe there are more people who love this country the way it was founded than those who want to turn it into a socialist nightmare.

Thanks for all the work you did in NV!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Yes, the type of socialist nightmare that has one of the largest domestic auto manufacturing bases in the world. Unlike Vietnam where cars are assemblied but only as the service of its Japanese and German masters.

As long as this country has a thriving manufacturing base and great entrepreneurs like Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Jeff Bezos, his country’s economy has a future.

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Hang touch, y’all. It’s almost “Morning in America”…again!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

CNN on Wednesday: Well, our final polls clearly showed it could go either way…

Knott Buyinit on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Which means you have three possible interpretations:

1. The poll is biased garbage (the majority opinion here on Hot Air)

2. The poll is spot on b/c there’s just a lot of enthusiasm for Democrats these days (the majority opinion in the loony ward.)

3. The poll is still good but Republican identity has been steadily leaking into independents as conservative tea partiers no longer think of themselves as Republicans.

Well folks, have at it. Why is #3 not correct?

PackerBronco on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

TROLLCOTT!

And the reason for it has just filthied our place again.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I’ll admit I am as I don’t like how VA is close and I have seen lots of Obama signs pop up recetnly in NOVA

jonkk on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I took a drive up through Fauquier County a few days ago and all I saw were Romney/Ryan and George Allen signs. Lots of them.

Oldnuke on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Obama crowds MUCH smaller than 2008.

They are explaining that it is by design. Smaller crowds are much more intimate, don’t you know.

McCain had almost no GOTV compaign. Romney’s is HUGE and sophisticated.

I’ve had Romney supporters show up at the door twice during this election- the second time yesterday. Nothing is going to keep me from voting tomorrow but, still, the fact that Romney had a GOTV effort in the bluest part of Virginia was good to see.

Any alien just arriving on Earth today would make the assumption Romney is winning easily.

Can they get provisional ballots?

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

TROLLCOT! All of ‘em.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Pollsters have a real problem these days… anyone with callerID just does the click-click deal and cuts them off. So what do they get; a 9 percent response rate. So to get 1000 responses they need over 11000 phone calls. Do polls mean anything now? Plus about 20 percent of people don’t even have a home phone.

Dasher on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Paul Ryan’s crowds are 3 times the size of Obama’s crowds. Romney’s crowds are 10 times the size of Obama’s crowds.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Really?

Really?

Let’s see…Obama drew 24,000 the other night in VA, so that would mean Romney drew a crowd of 240,000. That’s a nice accomplishment!

And when did Paul Ryan draw a crowd of 72,000? I must have missed that.

This is the most unrealistic, fantasy-prone crowd on the internet.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

These close poll numbers just make us more determined to vote. I guess it keeps their base in the game too. But no way does it depress our vote. It could produce a bigger landslide. (Oh, please God!)

tj4osu on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Question: If landslide will Obama make concession speech or issue statement through surrogate? Having a hard time picturing his ego allowing such an exercise in front of the little people.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Regardless, he’s going to try to steal the election through his goose-stepping army of lawyers. How dare we the people unelect der Fürher his Highness from his house.

Damn, I can’t wait to Vote for Romney/Ryan and for George Allen!!!

RandallinHerndon on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Not nervous. I mean, one is always mildly concerned when you’re depending on millions of people…

But I’m certainly more confident than I’ve been in any other election. Main reason? All the liberals I know are super nervous. The opposite of 08. No excitement, just scared.

We’ll win.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I took a drive up through Fauquier County a few days ago and all I saw were Romney/Ryan and George Allen signs. Lots of them.

Oldnuke on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Good! That is part of the swingiest part of the state.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Trollcott!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.

Tomorrow…I love the sound of that.

TROLLCOTT!!

tdarrington on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

TEANAMI 2 !!!

Work it Hot Airians.

Today is the day. Emails, phone calls, street corners, tweets, posts on FB, pics and messages on Instagram, local swing state websites, door-to-door.

If you can reach a swing state. Do it.

Have no regrets tomorrow night.

PappyD61 on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

In his weekly column for the “Las Vegas Review-Journal,” writer Glenn Cook has been examining the problems of voter fraud, including felons, the deceased, and noncitizens registering to vote and casting ballots.

Fearing reprisal from the union and deportation by immigration authorities, the two spoke to Cook as long as he agreed not to identify them. While they speak a modicum of English, the two say they didn’t understand the forms they were completing….

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/how-many-noncitizens-are-registered-to-vote-177141441.html

workingclass artist on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

How possible is it we are so terribly wrong about the oversampling?

I’m not sure what would disappoint (or horrify) me more come Wednesday morning: another four years of an Obama Presidency or looking at an electorate that is D+11…

GadsdenRattlers on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

TROLLCOT! All of ‘em.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Most especially against the person responsible for it.

He, alone, has ruined everything for his own side and for other, better liberals who might comment here.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

CNN poll also says Romney wins only 59% of conservative vote, while Obama takes 37% of that and 59% of moderates. (Libs go Obama 94% to 5%).

Possible?

_RobRob on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

I don’t know. Ask the conservatives on here if any of them would ever entertain the idea of voting for Obama. Something tells me you’d have a hard time getting 3.7% saying yes much less 37%.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I’ll admit I am as I don’t like how VA is close and I have seen lots of Obama signs pop up recetnly in NOVA

jonkk on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I drove into the Metro parking lot this morning, and the entire median was blanketed with Obama signs.

They weren’t there Friday.

The thing is, that’s public land, right? No one votes from public land. All the signs on private land are for Romney. And I said ‘all’ on purpose. I’ve seen two Obama signs over the past month. Both of them are in my parent’s yard.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

From PPP:
Fox is the most trusted TV news source for 34% of voters, followed by PBS at 17%, CNN at 12%, ABC News at 11%, CBS News at 8%, MSNBC at 5%, and Comedy Central and NBC each at 4%.

Here

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Damn, I can’t wait to Vote for Romney/Ryan and for George Allen!!!

RandallinHerndon on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

I’m going to be lined up no later than 5:45 tomorrow morning! I’m that excited to get in there and vote R/R, Allen, and Patrick Murray.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Or, on the flip side, perhaps it can be a reminder to the left-wing of the GOP (i.e., the “moderates”) to play ball when a conservative candidate is nominated? typically, the base does rally to the nominee, but the “moderates” are the ones who fail to do likewise – even for other offices, Senate, Governor, etc.

Monkeytoe on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Yep! Like Akin and Mourdock.

Vince on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

D+11?

Snort.

And GAZE.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I can’t stand it. Spousal unit can no longer stay in the same room with me because I’m such an eeyore.

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

TROLLCOT alert!

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

And that poll is a D+8 sample, which exceeds Dem turnout of 2008. The Incredible Shrinking Republican Party registers at only 29%, but is more Enthusiastic dontcha know.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

That’s pretty odd considering Gallup has found a higher Republican affiliation than Democrat and has been polling with about an even split for most of the cycle.

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Yeah, me too…going to be very close.

Incidentally, if it comes down to OH and they go with Obama, the whole state will be dead to me ;)

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I mean NO OFFENSE at all to Ohians, but, does it bother anyone else, that it almost always comes down to Ohio to decide an election??!! If Alabama decided it, we would already be doing a Romney victory dance! Lol!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

The little one in the middle is Barry. His head is on Mooch’s belly.

petefrt on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Well, it’s the last day before Election Day and one thing I know we can all be proud of is the fact that every conservative is now enthusiastically supporting Mitt. I remember a few months ago when Mitt said that he wouldn’t light his hair to please the base, I actually re-read the comments under a Hotair post a few months ago:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/28/romney-its-very-easy-to-excite-the-base-with-incendiary-comments/

My, what a change! I really want to thank all the conservatives and Tea Party people who were swearing they would never vote for Mitt and are now actively campaigning to have him elected. I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

We have no choice.

Be prepared for Romney to be MASSIVELY CONCILIATORY TO THE OPPOSITION if he wins.

PappyD61 on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Trollcott!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Got your back.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I can’t wait to vote.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I know some of you see that guy defecating in the corner. Just leave him alone, he’ll leave soon. Talk amongst yourselves.

Trollcott!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Liberal Democrats sitting on the state’s supreme court. That’s the problem.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

^This^ and I’ll be voting to get rid of them tomorrow.

—–
folks, it has made its presence known in this thread, remember – TROLLCOT

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

TROLLCOT! All of ‘em.
kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I posted this in the other thread to flora duh, but I think it applies here as well. The trollcott thing is silly.

Flo, you are one of the most effective warriors against the liberal commenters. You can always be counted on to deliver a witty or strong, factual response to their posts. That is another reason why it would be sad if people like you, in the name of an ill-defined “trollcott,” just gave up and decided to let the liberal commenters’ messages stand unanswered.
bluegill on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

bluegill on November 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

The thing is, that’s public land, right? No one votes from public land. All the signs on private land are for Romney. And I said ‘all’ on purpose. I’ve seen two Obama signs over the past month. Both of them are in my parent’s yard.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

One of the streets me got the Obama/Kaine/Moron sign treatment recently. Remarkably, by the next morning the only signs that remained were those for Romney.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:14 AM

I can’t wait to vote.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

That makes two gazillion of us! *L*

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Pic of the Day: Too Close To Call

Resist We Much on November 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Lest we forget.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:14 AM

I can’t stand it. Spousal unit can no longer stay in the same room with me because I’m such an eeyore.
fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Time to cowboy up! No worries. All signs point to a big Romney victory. The polls are the only thing showing it close and there is great shenanigans with weighting etc.

Seriously. It’s almost done. Vote him out. Send him home. We got this.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I can’t wait to vote.

gophergirl on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Still riding high from last night? I’ve seen pics, it must have been very exciting to be there. Especially when just a few weeks ago you were sure you guys were going to be left out.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Someone save this.

You’ll only need to keep it for a couple of days.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I can’t stand it. Spousal unit can no longer stay in the same room with me because I’m such an eeyore.

fatigue on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I hear you, been disappointed too many times, and the stakes are huge. And usually the pollsters try to reflect reality by this time to save their reputation, we’ll see. Keep praying and working it.

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

3. The poll is still good but Republican identity has been steadily leaking into independents as conservative tea partiers no longer think of themselves as Republicans.

Well folks, have at it. Why is #3 not correct?

PackerBronco on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Because voter registration has risen in BOTH Republican AND Independents, with no comparable losses in republican party identification. :)

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

This is the most unrealistic, fantasy-prone crowd on the internet.

…making it a fair fight then ?

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

The trollcott is the best thing that ever happened to hot air. Last night was the best.

Stay strong!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

bluegill on November 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

meh. And only my friends call me Flo.

Have a nice day.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I’m not trollcotting either except for gumbo and maybe Dbear simply because they never say anything worth debating. Most of the other libs will actually dig in a bit.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Being all familiar with things American Dave, how do you think Hopewell will go this time. How about Madisonville, Kentucky? Do you think Pungo will go for Obama this time?

Oldnuke on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Apologies to the thread….

socalcon on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Yep. I was just explaining this to my mom last night. A registered Dem who will be voting for Romney. Her question was, “how do we know he’ll be any better than Obama?”

Like I told her, we don’t, with certainty. All we can do is hold him accountable for what he’s said he’ll do, and if he doesn’t do it, he’s gone in 4 yrs.

She lives in Ohio, so she was also all freaked out about the talking heads on ABC yesterday morning proclaiming that the boy king was going to take Ohio, thus winning the election.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Yay for your mom! I bet there are a lot of democrats voting for Romney in Ohio, and they (MSM and dem party) are in for a big shock tomorrow!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

TROLLCOT!!! Even the Mobys.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Someone save this.

You’ll only need to keep it for a couple of days.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM
——

Romney wins – I ban myself for 2 months

Obama wins – you ban yourself for 2 months

Put up or shut up.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

One of the streets me got the Obama/Kaine/Moron sign treatment recently. Remarkably, by the next morning the only signs that remained were those for Romney.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:14 AM

I just need this election to be over. I’m so completely bi-polar. One minute, I’m CONVINCED of the tidal wave/undertow coming. The very next, I KNOW Obama will win.

I’m 32. My blood-pressure is probably similar to that of an 85 year-old life-long smoker whose lived on bacon and pork rinds for the last fifty years.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

I won’t dare presume who will win the election. But the way I see things shaping up, it’s either going to be a big Romney win, or Obama by a nose.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Being all familiar with things American Dave, how do you think Hopewell will go this time. How about Madisonville, Kentucky? Do you think Pungo will go for Obama this time?

Oldnuke on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM
———-

I don’t know. Tell me the facts and I’ll evaluate them.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Who farted? Smells like Canadian bacon?

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

President Ladies’ Tee is packing his mom jeans and raiding the Oval Office fridge for Wagyu

Slade73 on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Obama pulls more dems than Romney does republicans in today’s Rasmussen poll. That will be the most surprising result tomorrow. Romney could not hold his base as strongly as obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Note to nervous nellies:

In high school and college before each game I always wanted to be nervous. Although confident in ability being void of nervousness meant overconfidence which assured poor performance.

Make your calls, offer rides, and vote.

We Got This!!

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

The trollcott is the best thing that ever happened to hot air. Last night was the best.

Stay strong!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:17 AM

+1

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Red font at Drudge:

RASMUSSEN: R 49% O 48%

mudskipper on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

That’s pretty odd considering Gallup has found a higher Republican affiliation than Democrat and has been polling with about an even split for most of the cycle.

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Yeah, it’s extremely odd. They do that swing state poll with USA Today. I don’t know if that has anything to do with the different sampling.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

HotAmish?

Bmore on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

If anyone thought the LSM meltdown was epic after the first debate….just wait for the LSM’s nuclear meltdown of biblical proportions tomorrow night! Popcorn ready!!

dddave on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Sent a text to a conservative friend in Ohio yesterday. Asked him if he’s voted yet. He said, “No. I will vote on Tuesday like you’re supposed to.” There are so many conservatives that feel the same way. And we’ve already wiped out Obama’s lead with early voting from 08.

We’ve got this. Can’t wait!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Who farted? Smells like Canadian bacon?

HumpBot Salvation on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

V. intuitive :)

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 AM

CNN poll: All tied

…the Clinton News Network!!!..who fluken cares?…
.
.
.

TROLLCOTT…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I’m going to be lined up no later than 5:45 tomorrow morning! I’m that excited to get in there and vote R/R, Allen, and Patrick Murray.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I’m a little to the North. R/R, Allen, Wolf.

RandallinHerndon on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I just need this election to be over. I’m so completely bi-polar. One minute, I’m CONVINCED of the tidal wave/undertow coming. The very next, I KNOW Obama will win.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

I’m right there with you. The video from Romney’s rally outside Philly helped. To think that 30,000 people were willing to go out in the cold on a Sunday night gives me hope.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Someone save this.

You’ll only need to keep it for a couple of days.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM
——

Romney wins – I ban myself for 2 months

Obama wins – you ban yourself for 2 months

Put up or shut up.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

He won’t accept your bet.

They don’t even believe the nonsense that they post. It’s just to boost morale as the titanic is approaching the iceberg. This place is filled with cowards.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

If anyone thought the LSM meltdown was epic after the first debate….just wait for the LSM’s nuclear meltdown of biblical proportions tomorrow night! Popcorn ready!!

dddave on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I want to see Chris Matthews fired live, on camera. Then dragged off stage gibbering and drooling in a straight jacket.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

tROLLCOT working.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

it would be sad if people like you, in the name of an ill-defined “trollcott,” just gave up and decided to let the liberal commenters’ messages stand unanswered.
bluegill on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

That is HA’s problem. They are are responsible. They tolerate a massive amount of blatant trolling.

If people decide to quit replying to the trolls, or to post less, or to maybe even quit posting on HA because of it, that is HA’s problem. They created the situation and they tolerate it.

farsighted on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Don’t engage the trolls

trollcot

mrscullen on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Sent a text to a conservative friend in Ohio yesterday. Asked him if he’s voted yet. He said, “No. I will vote on Tuesday like you’re supposed to.” There are so many conservatives that feel the same way.

Same, exact thing was said in 08. How did that turn out?

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

This is the most unrealistic, fantasy-prone crowd on the internet.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Yes, because Obama draws 24,000 people every single place he goes, thus rendering your single example as indicative of the entire trend, and it is everyone else who is not being reasonable.

And naturally it was the president’s incomparable warmth and charm that filled the arena, because neither Dave Matthews nor Bill Clinton were ever known to draw a crowd.

The Schaef on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Trollcott isn’t to ignore compelling arguments. It’s to ignore trolls. Just do it. Especially ignore the one that shall not be named. It makes many appearances. But it shall leave soon. Have no fear.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Put up or shut up.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Or, you could ban yourself from all things American, and I’ll ban myself from all things Canadian.

Canadian Club 30 is more important to me than Hot Air.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I’m a little to the North. R/R, Allen, Wolf.

RandallinHerndon on November 5, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Lucky you. Frank Wolf used to be my Congressman before he got pushed out to the west and divided NoVa up between Moron and Connelly.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

3. The poll is still good but Republican identity has been steadily leaking into independents as conservative tea partiers no longer think of themselves as Republicans.

Well folks, have at it. Why is #3 not correct?

PackerBronco on November 5, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Ok, I can take a stab at this… lets look at party affiliation changes in paces that track this.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in eight key battleground states.

GOP registration has also declined — but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.

Your argument that all the difference here is the Republicans hemorrhaging voters to independents and the Democrats keeping (or improving) their margins doesn’t match the voter affiliation data.

The data shows Democrats losing voters to independents at a 10:1 rate faster than Republicans in the “swing states”… which does not bode well for their electoral chances.

You can find several other stories in this over the past few months; this isn’t the only source/site (but I figured you’d accept Politico over say the Washington Examiner for sourcing this).

Oh, and this of course…

The analysis, conducted by centrist Democratic think tank Third Way…

Sorry, but given the numbers showing Democrats losing more voters to independents than Republicans are, I don’t think the argument that this is showing Republican support eroding is a valid argument.

At the very least I’d want some support in favor of that argument showing states where this occurred; and all the data I’ve found so far shows the opposite.

gekkobear on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I know some of you see that guy defecating in the corner. Just leave him alone, he’ll leave soon. Talk amongst yourselves.

Trollcott!

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I was going to ask if a certain troll made it through the night but before I could ask I saw it’s dropings, Oh well.

VegasRick on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

The Schaef on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Stop feeding the trolls. Trollcott

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:24 AM

“Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.”

No, but it is a world you’ll inevitably see if America keeps importing non-White future voters, who will inevitably be Democratic partisans, en masse.

The Democrats are openly gloating about their demographic strategy. Every year the Republican ceiling gets lower and the locked in racial vote for the Democratic Party gets bigger.

Meanwhile the Republican strategy has been open borders and amnesty. That is what George W. Bush and John McCain were for in 12 wasted years.

The payoff was supposed to be a movement of the “naturally conservative” Hispanic vote to the Republican Party. It absolutely did not happen, and if John McCain was not gung ho enough it will never happen.

The Democratic strategy is winning, and the Republican strategy is busted.

Either President Romney will do everything he can to turn off the mass immigration tap, or the next four years will be wasted too.

David Blue on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Yes, because Obama draws 24,000 people every single place he goes, thus rendering your single example as indicative of the entire trend, and it is everyone else who is not being reasonable.

And naturally it was the president’s incomparable warmth and charm that filled the arena, because neither Dave Matthews nor Bill Clinton were ever known to draw a crowd.

The Schaef on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

There’s . TROLLCOT in place here, pls, observe!!? Meaning don’t engage the trolls, especially that one!! Much appreciated!!

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Watching Romney now in Florida. Says he has gained support over the past few months and it is now a movement.

esr1951 on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Another awesome Hotair cherrypick in the face of crushing reality.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:12 AM

.
Someone save this.

You’ll only need to keep it for a couple of days.

Washington Nearsider on November 5, 2012 at 9:15 AM

.
I’ve saved a number of them, in recent days. . : )

listens2glenn on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Romney wins – I ban myself for 2 months
. . .

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Please ban yourself at any time, for as long as you wish.

Dextrous on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

I really want to thank all the conservatives and Tea Party people who were swearing they would never vote for Mitt and are now actively campaigning to have him elected. I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Don’t assume that everyone who has voted for Mitt is gung-ho about his presidency, sir/madam. The dull fact of the matter is, Obama simply has to go, and there’s no other logical choice on the ballot than Mitt.

And unless Mitt Romney proves otherwise, and governs as a good conservative, in my mind, if he wins this, he will merely be a placeholder until a better candidate can be found for 2016. Even if it’s Paul Ryan himself. In fact, when I voted by drop-off ballot on Saturday, my vote technically was for Paul Ryan, just as it was for Sarah Palin instead of John McCain in 2008.

Be grateful that those of us who did not support him in the primaries voted for Mitt, but don’t think we’re not going to watch him closely as his presidency unfolds. Especially as it concerns Obamacare.

And if Mitt does not win this Tuesday (God forbid, as we desperately need Obama to go), it just might mean that we should have nominated a “hard a** conservative to unite the GOP.”

Some of us had to be brought kicking and screaming into this place. Be grateful we’re here, and don’t rub our noses in it.

theotherone on November 5, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Red font at Drudge:

RASMUSSEN: R 49% O 48%

mudskipper on November 5, 2012 at 9:20 AM

——–

Silver analyzed 105 polls released by Rasmussen Reports and its subsidiary, Pulse Opinion Research, for Senate and gubernatorial races in numerous states across the country. The bottom line is that on average, Rasmussen’s polls were off by 5.8% with a bias of 3.9% in favor of the Republican candidates.

-all polls are conducted within a 4-hour window
-the person who answers the phone (even a child) is sampled
-phones that are not answered are not called back
-live interviewers are never used
-Rasmussen picks a different random phone number instead of calling back two, three, four or more times as other pollsters do

“The discrepancies between Rasmussen Reports polls and those issued by other companies were apparent from virtually the first day that Barack Obama took office.”

Yeah, keep on cheering for the joke that is Rasmussen.

Dave Rywall on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

tROLLCOT working.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 9:22 AM

fOR tHE mOST pART, yES.

Bishop on November 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I mean NO OFFENSE at all to Ohians, but, does it bother anyone else, that it almost always comes down to Ohio to decide an election??!! If Alabama decided it, we would already be doing a Romney victory dance! Lol!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 9:11 AM

As an Ohioian… YES, IT BOTHERS ME!!! Right now, its all election all the time. Right now Obama’s smothering the tv with Colon Powell and his B.S.

dominigan on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Trollcott isn’t to ignore compelling arguments. It’s to ignore trolls. Just do it. Especially ignore the one that shall not be named. It makes many appearances. But it shall leave soon. Have no fear.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

The one who triggered our trollcott–he who harmed other liberals by being such a douche–will never leave. He’ll remain to needle all the time at every breath a President Romney takes.

That troll is like a dog fed so long at the supper table he has made himself a nuisance, and so now needs to be put out in the yard.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4 5