CNN poll: All tied at 49% …

posted at 8:41 am on November 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

It’s all tied up, CNN reports, with just two days left in the presidential race.  Mitt Romney and Barack Obama both get 49%, and tie on every major indicator.  And this might be good news for Barack Obama, until they look at the sample (via Twitchy):

It’s all tied up, according to a new national poll released two days before the presidential election.

And the CNN/ORC International survey not only indicates a dead heat in the race for the White House, but also on almost every major indicator of President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney that was tested in the poll.

Forty-nine percent of likely voters questioned say they support the president, with an equal amount saying they back the former Massachusetts governor.

The poll is the fourth national non-partisan, live operator survey released Sunday to indicate the battle for the presidency either a dead heat or virtually tied. A Politico/George Washington University survey has it tied at 48%; an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll indicates Obama at 48% and Romney at 47%; and the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll puts Obama at 49% and Romney at 48%.

Only this poll turns out to be bad news for Barack Obama.  Why?  According to CNN’s internals of this likely-voter survey, Obama doesn’t come close to tying Romney in one key indicator — independent voters.  According to the sample data, Romney leads independents by a whopping twenty-two points, 59/37.  How can Romney have a 22-point lead among independents but still only get to a 49-all tie with Obama?

Here’s how:

Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.

Yes, that’s a D/R/I of 41/30/29.  In 2008, a big turnout election for Democrats, the D/R/I was 39/32/29, and Obama won independents by eight points. Despite Republicans having a five-point edge in this very poll among those “extremely enthusiastic” about voting, the CNN poll has added four points to the Democrats’ advantage in this sample.

Let’s also take a look at the gender gap.  In 2008, Obama got a +14 in the gender gap, with a +13 among women and a +1 among men.  In this poll, Romney wins men by nine (53/44) and Obama wins women by eight (53/45) for a gender gap advantage of +1 for Romney.

So we are expected to believe that since 2008, (a) Obama has lost thirty points in the gap with independents, (b) Obama has lost fifteen points in the gender gap, and (c) Obama is still just four points below his 2008 share of the electorate?  Only in a world where 41% of the voters will be Democrats and only 30% Republicans, and that world won’t be what we see tomorrow.

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Well, it’s the last day before Election Day and one thing I know we can all be proud of is the fact that every conservative is now enthusiastically supporting Mitt. I remember a few months ago when Mitt said that he wouldn’t light his hair to please the base, I actually re-read the comments under a Hotair post a few months ago:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/02/28/romney-its-very-easy-to-excite-the-base-with-incendiary-comments/

My, what a change! I really want to thank all the conservatives and Tea Party people who were swearing they would never vote for Mitt and are now actively campaigning to have him elected. I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Remember how well the TROLLCOT has been working folks.

On topic: CNN polls have been the butt of jokes on Twitter for the past 24 hours.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

With a D+11. Imagine that.

Tomorrow’s going to be great!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Let’s see if the magic of yesterday can carry over today.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa

You should be. You’ve all been living inside your alternative-reality bubble. Obama’s going to win.

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Yep. I was just tempted to engage.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

By the way, I know people here have given explanations as to why Intrade must be off base but does anyone know why every single bookmaker gives O as the clear favorite?

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

I can’t wait to vote!

blatantblue on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

POLLCOTT!!!!

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Yet another garbage poll. So, if turnout is identical to 2008 (D+7), then CNN’s poll really shows Romney up by 4, right? But everything I’ve seen has indicated the 2012 Democrat advantage is less than 7, so Romney’s up by even more.

diditagain on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

So why at this very late date are polling outfits holding on to shaky turnout models? I would think that when their reputation is on the line, they’d want the most predictive model possible and I don’t see how a D+11 turnout model can be supported.

There must be some systemic explanation other than “all the pollsters are in the tank for Obama.” What are (or aren’t) they seeing?

JohnTant on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Anyone else nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Only about the aftermath.

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

cozmo on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

The feeling I have reminds me exactly of the day before I voted for the first time in November 1980.

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Not for awhile, no. I’ve been persuaded by the argument that we’ve “lost” the pollsters to the MSM. I remain convinced that will be the big story of this election.

I didn’t really believe it before, but there’s too much evidence mounting that this is correct.

Doomberg on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

TROLLCOT!!!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

All these tied polls make me suspicious. What are the chances the stars would all align to perfect ties on the day before the election? I think the real reason for the ties is that the pollsters are scared to put out what their internals really show: a big Romney win. They’re scared of Nate Silver, too. He has cast a huge shadow over this election.

I’m very anxious to see what Gallup comes up with. They are not immune to fear. Last election they came up with this bogus two-poll thing, a hedge if ever I saw one. But this time they have shown a little more guts in being the outlier. If they still give Romney a 4 or 5 point lead, you know this thing is over.

MaxMBJ on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I normally don’t repeat myself from one thread to another, but this time, I will: I’m not expecting miracles from Romney. All I’m expecting from him is to buy us time–another four or five years to hopefully shore things up and begin correcting this mess. If Obama wins, then I honestly don’t think we’re going to make it to 2016–I think it all falls down and goes boom. It’s like I said earlier, we all know what we’re getting here. We know who and what Obama is, we know who and what Mitt is. We know what both stand for. We know that once we pick a path, that’s it, there’s no turning back. If Obama wins, I don’t want one single Obama voter coming to me saying “I didn’t think he’d do THAT!” or “I didn’t see THAT coming!” because, so help me God, I’ll laugh in their face.

Tomorrow will tell the tale, then I go back to watching everything here. I’m already feeling like I’m looking too long into the abyss…

Matt Helm on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

CNN’s been pathetic this entire election. It’s obvious they manufacture these polls for depressing GOP turnout and giving themselves something to discuss on their shows.

This election is gonna be a blowout. If Romney’s winning indies by 22 points(or anything approaching that margin) and the partisan breakdown ends up being even or slightly in the GOP’s favor as the respectable pollsters are anticipating, we’re looking at a popular vote landslide of Reaganesque proportions.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

What a crock

And wolfie saying every 5 minutes post the 3 debates what the internal count was just so you kniw the poll wasn’t skewed ….crickets from him on this poll

cmsinaz on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

The intellectual twister CNN has to go through to get the results they wish is hilarious.

itsspideyman on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I bought gas for $2.979/gal yesterday. The economy must be doing a lot better./s

Vince on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

GAZE

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Obama’s going to win.

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Which means we loose.

Electrongod on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

What is a hard ass conservative? Do you mean a real conservative? Nothing has changed. Mitt is not an ideal candidate. But he is who we got this cycle. We can only play with the cards we get.

antisocial on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

So why at this very late date are polling outfits holding on to shaky turnout models? I would think that when their reputation is on the line, they’d want the most predictive model possible and I don’t see how a D+11 turnout model can be supported.

There must be some systemic explanation other than “all the pollsters are in the tank for Obama.” What are (or aren’t) they seeing?

John. It’s called ‘reality.’ Weird, huh? It’s where most of us live. You should try it sometime.

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Remember how well the TROLLCOT has been working folks.

On topic: CNN polls have been the butt of jokes on Twitter for the past 24 hours.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Only liberals gush at CNN polls.

We, on the other hand, trollcott, so we listen neither to CNN nor the trolls.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama both get 49%, and tie on every major indicator.

National vote counts don’t determine elections. It’s not the popular vote that matters but outcomes in swing states. So you really need to look at the potential numbers in a few key races:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html

Another great resource:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Looks like CNN has given up on regaining respectiblility. Just jiggle those numbers until you come up with the result you want.

Finbar on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

What will the Obama losers do after the election???…

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

TROLLCOT!!!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:47 AM

POLLCOTT!!!

msupertas on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I had a dream last night, and I feel it was a good sign.

I dreamt Obama was giving a speech at a lectern, but I couldn’t hear what he was saying. He appeared to be weepy-eyed, as if he were about to cry. At this time, a worker in a blue jumpsuit whose face we never saw was taking down the American flags in the background. He even removed the small one on the lectern, but Michelle came in and tried to stop him. She lost, but instead placed a small one in a cup on the lectern.

Woke up with a good feeling.

onetrickpony on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Don’t forget to vote on Wednesday.

antisocial on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Latest Rasmussen:

Romney 49
Obama 48

Rasmussen’s last 2008 poll had Obama-McCain 52-46.

Looks like Romney will win 51-48 after undecideds break.

Norwegian on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

CNN’s definition of “tied” involves spotting the incumbent an 11 point homefield advantage.

Resist We Much on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Anxious would be the word of the day for myself.

RonnyTucker on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 AM

John. It’s called ‘reality.’ Weird, huh? It’s where most of us live. You should try it sometime.

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

So you think a D+11 turnout model is predictive?

Why?

JohnTant on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

I would assume that the bookies would want everyone to bet on Obama to win.

Vince on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 AM

onetrickpony on November 5, 2012 at 8:49 AM

I can’t talk about my dream… :0 …

PatriotRider on November 5, 2012 at 8:50 AM

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

The one poll that makes me nervous is Gallup’s swing state poll which shows a dead heat (after Romney was up by multiple points before Sandy).

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Everyone, listen up! It’s going to be ok!! We will see scary poll numbers today with no sampling explained, or the sampling will be so outrageous that the poll is meaningless (think CNN D+11). Talking heads are going to be stewing and fretting today and reporting these skewed polls like they don’t have a clue about sampling. (Maybe they don’t.)

Let’s just take it easy today. Let’s all go to the store and get snacks for tomorrow night and be ready to have some fun! It WILL be ok!!! Mitt Romney is going to win!

Oink on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Trollcot!!

if( Romney > Obama )
{
USA.Save();
}
else
{
USA–;
}

Haha. D+11 is a joke. I live in Ohio and I know of at least 3 voters in my family who I just talked to this weekend who’ve gone from voting Obama in 2008 to Romney in 2012. All women, btw. Also, anecdotally, the signs on my way to the baptism were 3-1 Romney in NE Ohio.

ConDem on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

The MSM is going to great lengths to try and make this a close election. After all, they need the ratings tomorrow night. However, it will just end up being cruel to their liberal viewers,just like Obama’s progressive agenda, on the surface seems good for the poor and needy but in reality does more harm than good.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

My, what a change! I really want to thank all the conservatives and Tea Party people who were swearing they would never vote for Mitt and are now actively campaigning to have him elected. I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

You are welcome! As one of those people, I can say that I am not even going to hold my nose tomorrow. I am willing to give Romney a chance, but we are still going to hold his feet to the fire, you know. Step one is getting the communist out of the White House. Then the fight begins all over again, to hold Romney responsible, to make sure our representatives are doing what we hired them to do.

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama both get 49%, and tie on every major indicator.

National vote counts don’t determine elections. It’s not the popular vote that matters but outcomes in swing states. So you really need to look at the potential numbers in a few key races:

PA http://goo.gl/IZtgH

OH http://goo.gl/kn1uw

A great what-if resource:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

They are trying to cover for the outright fraud that has and will be going on. But that unprecedented abount of fraud for the Democrats won’t be more than 3% and that’s not NEARLY enough. Possible blowout for Romney at Reagan-Carter levels.

michaelo on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Still need to win OH, VA, FL and CO. Any more states will be gravy. VA must be tightening again, Romney added one more stop there , and will have 2 rallies in VA today.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Let CNN play all they want, because they’re playing only with themselves.

But, if Obama wins, he’s not going to get some kind of mandate like he and the MSM think. If Romney wins, it’s going to be big if not a landslide. If Obama wins, it’ll be by a razor-thin margin.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

The one poll that makes me nervous is Gallup’s swing state poll which shows a dead heat (after Romney was up by multiple points before Sandy).

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 AM

this is soething I really don’t understand.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

It seems to me we have a chance to do something historic here: put a stake in the heart of both the mainstream media and their henchmen, the pollsters. Nate Silver, God bless him, has put a number on it and it’s a big, big number. He has put all his cards on the table, all his eggs in one basket, all his chips on the number, all his … well, he’s made it so there’s no explanation that will save him if he’s wrong.

And the MSM has been sucking from his lower limbs this entire cycle. They’re terrified of his Magic Model even though, in theri heart of hearts, they can’t quite believe Obama’s an 85% lock on winning.

So they jumped aboard ship Silver and now, if it sinks, they’ve lost it all: their narrative making ability, their credibility (what little they still have) and their precious Hero-King.

I usually don’t like those “This election is the most important in your life” arguments, but if we win this, it really will be. The myth-making monster will be beheaded. Oh, God, please let it happen.

MaxMBJ on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Time for Romney to open one of these

http://www.flickr.com/photos/22984501@N06/2254243248/

Trafalgar on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

In 2008, CNN was 8th out of 23 polling organizations for accuracy.

Top 5:
Rasmussen (11/1-3)
Pew (10/29-11/1)
YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)

crash72 on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 AM

The MSM is going to great lengths to try and make this a close election. After all, they need the ratings tomorrow night. However, it will just end up being cruel to their liberal viewers,just like Obama’s progressive agenda, on the surface seems good for the poor and needy but in reality does more harm than good.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I’m willing to wager that at least half the networks will refuse to call it for Romney even after it’s obvious that he’s locked down enough EVs to reach 270. CBS waited in 2004 until the following morning despite it being clear that Bush had won O-I-H-O the night before. I’m sure Dan Rather had nothing to do with that decision.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 AM

You’ve all been living inside your alternative-reality bubble. Obama’s going to win.

lostmotherland on November 5, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Reality will hit you like a bucket of cold water. Romney wins: 320-218.

RadClown on November 5, 2012 at 8:56 AM

This is all about continuing the fallacy that this is a close race. If this is the level to which these pollsters have to stoop, then they should stop calling themselves pollsters. They should call themselves climate scientists.

ted c on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM

TROLLCOT Alert!

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM

I have butterflies the size of eagles, in my stomach!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa

No, and here is why:

To accept the notion that victory is all but assured for the Amateur in Chief, one must assume that his turnout is going to be just like 2008.

Do you believe that?

I don’t.

blatantblue on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM

So why at this very late date are polling outfits holding on to shaky turnout models? I would think that when their reputation is on the line, they’d want the most predictive model possible and I don’t see how a D+11 turnout model can be supported.

There must be some systemic explanation other than “all the pollsters are in the tank for Obama.” What are (or aren’t) they seeing?

JohnTant on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

They want to be able to say the election is close so people don’t tune out. The only way they can say that is by massively oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicand and independents.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Tomorrow will be Chic Fil A day all over again, but with lines wrapped around polling stations this time.

Let’s do this America.

Sugar Land on November 5, 2012 at 8:58 AM

The MSM is going to great lengths to try and make this a close election. After all, they need the ratings tomorrow night. However, it will just end up being cruel to their liberal viewers,just like Obama’s progressive agenda, on the surface seems good for the poor and needy but in reality does more harm than good.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Well said.

batterup on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

I’ll admit I am as I don’t like how VA is close and I have seen lots of Obama signs pop up recetnly in NOVA

jonkk on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

CNN is despicable.

That bears repeating.

CNN is despicable.

Dextrous on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

this is soething I really don’t understand.

jimver on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

What don’t you understand?

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

TROLLCOTT!

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

So why at this very late date are polling outfits holding on to shaky turnout models? I would think that when their reputation is on the line, they’d want the most predictive model possible and I don’t see how a D+11 turnout model can be supported.

There must be some systemic explanation other than “all the pollsters are in the tank for Obama.” What are (or aren’t) they seeing?

JohnTant on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Everyone seems to like the idea of a TIE, and is going to great length to make it a TIE. Who knows?

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Reality will hit you like a bucket of cold water. Romney wins: 320-218.

RadClown on November 5, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Ooooh, let me do it! I want to be “REALITY”! Now… wheres my bucket…..

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I’m very nervous, because I’m afraid there’s a lot of machines out there programmed to switch a percentage of Romney votes to Obama.

The Rogue Tomato on November 5, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I bought gas for $2.979/gal yesterday. The economy must be doing a lot better./s

Vince on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

That means the economy is crashing; if you follow Obama logic.

lorien1973 on November 5, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Still need to win OH, VA, FL and CO. Any more states will be gravy. VA must be tightening again, Romney added one more stop there , and will have 2 rallies in VA today.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Agreed, Virginia is much more promising for Romeny than Ohio or Pennsylvania.

VA http://goo.gl/YHgKz
PA http://goo.gl/IZtgH
OH http://goo.gl/kn1uw

There are more ways Mitt can win though:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Electrongod on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Trollcott. And you spelled lose wrong. You get no soup.

happytobehere on November 5, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Hey Republicans don’t exist. D+100!

(BTW, I’m boycotting CNN. I’ll DVR MSNBC tomorrow night to assist my gloating, but CNN gets ignored.)

WannabeAnglican on November 5, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 8:55 AM

No bet!

Question: If landslide will Obama make concession speech or issue statement through surrogate? Having a hard time picturing his ego allowing such an exercise in front of the little people.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:01 AM

TROLLCOT!!

With a D+11. Imagine that.

Tomorrow’s going to be great!

kingsjester on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

It sure is!!

dogsoldier on November 5, 2012 at 9:02 AM

13% of Obama voters in 2008 are voting for Romney. That’s huge.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Still need to win OH, VA, FL and CO. Any more states will be gravy. VA must be tightening again, Romney added one more stop there , and will have 2 rallies in VA today.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Agreed, VA does look better than PA and Ohio.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html

But Mitt has other paths to victory:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

bayam on November 5, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Anyone else nervous?

Or rather … is anyone NOT nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

I’m not nervous. If you’ve done everything you can do, there is no reason to be nervous, it’s out of your hands now. I believe there are more people who love this country the way it was founded than those who want to turn it into a socialist nightmare.

Thanks for all the work you did in NV!

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

I have butterflies the size of eagles, in my stomach!

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 8:57 AM

Yeah, me too…going to be very close.

Incidentally, if it comes down to OH and they go with Obama, the whole state will be dead to me ;)

changer1701 on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

petefrt on November 5, 2012 at 9:00 AM

You owe me more coffee..and paper towels!

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

What is it with Florida that they just cant seem to get their sh!t together for major elections? On purpose?

rollthedice on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/332458/doug-wilder-sours-obama-john-fund

Doug Wilder expresses misgivings about how Barry governed in the last 4 years, and did not endorse him for 2012.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Still need to win OH, VA, FL and CO. Any more states will be gravy. VA must be tightening again, Romney added one more stop there , and will have 2 rallies in VA today.

bayview on November 5, 2012 at 8:53 AM

RCP average today has Obama wining VA. I am not aware of anything that would have turned the tie towards Obama. I am skeptical of the polls, but they sure are not too encouraging today. Just need to keep working at getting out the vote. Please everyone make sure they contact at least a few people today

neuquenguy on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Right if you didn’t look at a single poll but looked only at the empirical evidence on the ground who would you think was winning?

Romney crowds MUCH bigger than Obama crowds. Obama crowds MUCH smaller than 2008. By this time in 2008 McCain was broke. Now Romney is outspending Obama 4:1 in swing states in the final week. Over 20 liberal newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 have now endorsed Romney. McCain had almost no GOTV compaign. Romney’s is HUGE and sophisticated.

Any alien just arriving on Earth today would make the assumption Romney is winning easily.

mitchellvii on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Via Ace…

Boston Herald: Brown 49%, Fauxcahontas 48%

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Anyone else nervous?

aunursa on November 5, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Mooch. She sees the gravy train coming to an end.

Happy Nomad on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

BTW, I expect lots of fake exit polls coming out in the afternoon showing Obama way ahead, like we saw in 2004. Don’t beleive them.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Step one is getting the communist out of the White House. Then the fight begins all over again, to hold Romney responsible, to make sure our representatives are doing what we hired them to do.

Night Owl on November 5, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Yep. I was just explaining this to my mom last night. A registered Dem who will be voting for Romney. Her question was, “how do we know he’ll be any better than Obama?”

Like I told her, we don’t, with certainty. All we can do is hold him accountable for what he’s said he’ll do, and if he doesn’t do it, he’s gone in 4 yrs.

She lives in Ohio, so she was also all freaked out about the talking heads on ABC yesterday morning proclaiming that the boy king was going to take Ohio, thus winning the election.

Flora Duh on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

The one poll that makes me nervous is Gallup’s swing state poll which shows a dead heat (after Romney was up by multiple points before Sandy).

Bravesbill on November 5, 2012 at 8:51 AM

And that poll is a D+8 sample, which exceeds Dem turnout of 2008. The Incredible Shrinking Republican Party registers at only 29%, but is more Enthusiastic dontcha know.

TarheelBen on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

What is a hard ass conservative? Do you mean a real conservative? Nothing has changed. Mitt is not an ideal candidate. But he is who we got this cycle. We can only play with the cards we get.

antisocial on November 5, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Correct, but I think conservatives learned a hard lesson in 08, when they decided to sit it out and not vote, because their candidate was not their ideal one.
I think they realize, things could be worse…. a LOT worse, with the alternative.

kcd on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

What is it with Florida that they just cant seem to get their sh!t together for major elections? On purpose?

rollthedice on November 5, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Liberal Democrats sitting on the state’s supreme court. That’s the problem.

Liam on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

No bet!

Question: If landslide will Obama make concession speech or issue statement through surrogate? Having a hard time picturing his ego allowing such an exercise in front of the little people.

HoustonRight on November 5, 2012 at 9:01 AM

If it’s a landslide, then Obama has to concede himself tomorrow night. He can’t put it off til Wednesday if we’re looking at a situation where it’s called around 10PM EST.

If it’s relatively close(ala 2004), then I could see Obama sending out a surrogate and delaying any concession until the next day. Kerry did that by sending out Edwards even after it was clear that O-I-H-O was in Bush’s column.

Doughboy on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Tied my @ss. Moochelle Barry is going to lose this election, and we’re going to evict these freeloaders from the White House.

RandallinHerndon on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I was more nervous about the ObamaTax decision. Mitt wins this easily. In two days Barack Obama will be just like any other Hawaiian with a Connecticut SS#

Slade73 on November 5, 2012 at 9:05 AM

It seems to me we have a chance to do something historic here: put a stake in the heart of both the mainstream media and their henchmen, the pollsters. Nate Silver, God bless him, has put a number on it and it’s a big, big number. He has put all his cards on the table, all his eggs in one basket, all his chips on the number, all his … well, he’s made it so there’s no explanation that will save him if he’s wrong.

And the MSM has been sucking from his lower limbs this entire cycle. They’re terrified of his Magic Model even though, in theri heart of hearts, they can’t quite believe Obama’s an 85% lock on winning.

So they jumped aboard ship Silver and now, if it sinks, they’ve lost it all: their narrative making ability, their credibility (what little they still have) and their precious Hero-King.

I usually don’t like those “This election is the most important in your life” arguments, but if we win this, it really will be. The myth-making monster will be beheaded. Oh, God, please let it happen.

MaxMBJ on November 5, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I become recently a nate silver fan, because I learned of his past predictions. of course, his reputation is on the line and I will happily ignore him from now on if he spectaculary fails this one.
I also look to rcp for guidance and its looks bleak there as well.

nathor on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Right if you didn’t look at a single poll but looked only at the empirical evidence on the ground who would you think was winning?

Romney crowds MUCH bigger than Obama crowds. Obama crowds MUCH smaller than 2008. By this time in 2008 McCain was broke. Now Romney is outspending Obama 4:1 in swing states in the final week. Over 20 liberal newspapers that endorsed Obama in 2008 have now endorsed Romney. McCain had almost no GOTV compaign. Romney’s is HUGE and sophisticated.

Any alien just arriving on Earth today would make the assumption Romney is winning easily.

mitchellvii on November 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Paul Ryan’s crowds are 3 times the size of Obama’s crowds. Romney’s crowds are 10 times the size of Obama’s crowds.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

My, what a change! I really want to thank all the conservatives and Tea Party people who were swearing they would never vote for Mitt and are now actively campaigning to have him elected. I hope this election will serve as a reminder that we don’t need to nominate a hard ass conservative to unite the GOP and win the White House!

Durandal on November 5, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Or, on the flip side, perhaps it can be a reminder to the left-wing of the GOP (i.e., the “moderates”) to play ball when a conservative candidate is nominated? typically, the base does rally to the nominee, but the “moderates” are the ones who fail to do likewise – even for other offices, Senate, Governor, etc.

Monkeytoe on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
As per Drudge, Rasmussen is Romney +1, 49-48 nationally. Romney ups lead w/ indies to 15. 2% of GOP undecided, 0% of Dems= room for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on November 5, 2012 at 9:06 AM

All states have a lean one way or the other that is pretty consistent over the years. States like OIHO, FL, VA,IA and CO are closest to being 50-50. To me, it seems improbable impossible that the national mood has moved the needle to the right far enough to make states like MI, PA, MN and even OR come into play and have states like the first group not move safely into the R column.

Animal60 on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

There must be some systemic explanation other than “all the pollsters are in the tank for Obama.” What are (or aren’t) they seeing?

JohnTant on November 5, 2012 at 8:46 AM

They want to be able to say the election is close so people don’t tune out. The only way they can say that is by massively oversampling Democrats and undersampling Republicand and independents.

eyedoc on November 5, 2012 at 8:58 AM

The explanation is that we’ve lost the pollsters the same way we’ve lost the MSM and they are, in fact, in the tank for Obama. PPP is the ultimate partisan polling outfit and they have suffered no loss of credibility for this, so many of them may not feel more comfortable wagering their reputations. The only thing that saves them is a very narrow Romney victory. If Romney wins WI/NH, PA, MI, or NV that means the end of their credibility.

There’s a few other possible explanations: Ace noted in a post a few months ago that no one wants to sound “crazy” and predict an electoral landslide, and the few pollsters not in the tank for Obama may be feeling “peer pressure” to follow the herd.

But mostly I think the pollsters are now actively supporting the Democrats and are functioning as a new arm of their GOTV operations the same way the MSM does.

Doomberg on November 5, 2012 at 9:07 AM

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