Polls: Virtual ties in Michigan, Pennsylvania

posted at 11:01 am on November 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Two media polls out in normally safe Democratic states show the presidential race in considerable flux — and pundits with few touchstones for their final calls.  First we go to Pennsylvania, where Mitt Romney has made a last-minute personal push for a state that hasn’t gone Republican in 24 years — and the new poll from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests he has a real shot at winning:

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

The PTR didn’t release the poll internals, but Lee told me this week that the poll is D+7, 44/37/19.  SPR wanted to stick with one turnout model, and that closely resembles 2008′s electorate in PA.  This result matches very closely to yesterday’s SPR poll results on the Senate race in PA, also a virtual dead heat.

In Michigan, perhaps the results come as an even bigger surprise, where Obama figured to ride the auto bailouts to an easy victory.  A new poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun of over 1900 likely voters has Romney ahead of Obama by less than one percent, 46.86%/46.24%.  The same pollster had Obama with nearly a 4-point lead before the first debate.  Also, this same poll shows Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow beating Pete Hoekstra rather easily, 50/43 — so it doesn’t appear to have a significant Republican tilt.

In fact, the sample is reasonably Democratic, although perhaps underrepresenting independents.  The D/R/I is 44/35/21; in 2008, 41/29/29, and no exit polling exists for 2010.  The poll did reweight in several categories to make up for deficiencies in demographics, as almost all pollsters do, but there are a couple of interesting points about the weighting, too.  After their initial sample only included 8% African-Americans, the pollster reweighted them to 17.5%. In 2008, though, this bloc only comprised 12% of the MI electorate.  At the same time, though, they appear to have overweighted seniors at the expense of middle-aged voters, but the two together look similar to 2008.

It looks like a surprise could be brewing in two Democratic states.

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Here’s a stream-of-consciousness prediction:

I think 0bama will get Washington, Oregon, California, Vermont, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., New York, New Jersey, Maine, Rhode Island, Iowa, Illinois, Maryland, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico, Massachusetts, Hawaii, and THAT’S IT.

Romney gets the rest.

So let me total all that up: 216 for 0bama. 322 for Romney.

That’s my prediction… making it now.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

I just scroll past his posts, and most of the ones replying to him. It works just fine. I think it would be helpful if the commenter’s name was at the top rather than the bottom of their post.

Night Owl on November 4, 2012 at 1:02 PM

+1 to all of this!

Anti-Control on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Actually, he forthrightly confessed following ’08 and ’10 that he had been too optimistic about long-shot races. There was nothing intentional about it.

Saying McCain was doing well on election day was not being optimistic, it was BS. The turnout reports were fabricated.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Chuck Schick … I gave my OPINION that Hume is scared … my OPINION I didn’t say he came out and said it … please at least use a little thought in your posts …

U2denver on November 4, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Come on, your posts are moronic, so don’t throw stones at mine.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

The key four: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan……

Those go Romney/Ryan.

My opinion only.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

sorry I have to go watch the Broncos beat the Bengals and then to see President Obama speak in Cincinnati … a few days before Ohio helps elect President Obama again ..

U2denver on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

I’ll boycott as well. I might just enter a ‘boycott’ comment to make the point.

Mitsouko on November 4, 2012 at 1:12 PM

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Does your prediction include the seven states that don’t have stars on our flag?

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:13 PM

They lost 4 hours of voting yesterday because of two “suspicious” packages located outside the polling place.

Night Owl on November 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I didn’t know that.

But then I don’t listen to the radio on the weekends.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 1:13 PM

that whole Sandy thing is gone if it ever existed.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 12:39 PM

It only “existed” in the minds of the O’bamna Fluffers in the Democrat Media, and in the minds of the O’bamna team itself.

But there has been absolutely no “polling” evidence to prove it’s helped Dear Leader, and the daily WaPo job approval tracking for him shows absolutely no bounce-it’s been stuck in the same place since October 27th.

In fact, archival Gallup polling data shows absolutely no Presidents getting bounces from major hurricanes or other storms. Pappy Bush certainly did not get one from Hurricane Andrew.

And despite the Democrat Media’s desperate attempts to shift all of the blame away from the Democrat idiots running Louisiana to Chimpy Bush after Katrina, his job approval never took a huge hit for that storm.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:14 PM

sorry I have to go watch the Broncos beat the Bengals and then to see President Obama speak in Cincinnati … a few days before Ohio helps elect President Obama again ..

U2denver on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

That’s right. Obama is back in a state he supposedly nailed down.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Not even trying to hide it anymore.

libfreeordie on November 4, 2012 at 12:08 PM

You are the one who makes everything about race. Don’t be surprised if people respond to it. I think it is racist that 95% of black people would vote for Obama, oh wait, they are not doing that this time, are they? I think I read somewhere he’s down to 70% or something. With black unemployment over 14%, it seems that only stupid black people are voting for Obama, and they join the ranks of stupid white people and stupid hispanics.

Night Owl on November 4, 2012 at 1:15 PM

When many people post “quit feeding the fluker”… on countless threads…it’s not that hard to comprehend for others…is it?

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM

You just admitted to not being able to either.

Here’s your chance to make a difference.

Mitsouko has a good idea.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:15 PM

I’ll avoid the next poll thread, too. Let’s see how it looks with only trolls making posts.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Count me in as well! Great idea.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

The key four: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan……

Those go Romney/Ryan.

My opinion only.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:11 PM

And Romney only needs one of PA OH or MI.

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Axelturd sans stache!

1984!!!

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:07 PM

That is the equivalent of castration for Axelturd, I think he derives his evil powers from his moustache :) so it’s fair to say that axelturd sans moustache = axelturd sans couilles/ballz!!!

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

That’s my prediction… making it now.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

My prediction: wrong. Romney will get IA and CO. But I love that you have WI, PA and MI for Romney…beyond my wildest dreams.

Jaibones on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Instead of banning Gumby, we could just install an “ignore button” so that we wouldn’t have to read his obvious attempts to rile up conservative commenters.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 4, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I just scroll past his posts, and most of the ones replying to him. It works just fine. I think it would be helpful if the commenter’s name was at the top rather than the bottom of their post.

Night Owl on November 4, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Yep, or a Firefox add-on. Since comments here run on Drupal (?) which is a common internet app, an add-on should be doable.

slickwillie2001 on November 4, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Interesting…..

SHARPTOOTH on November 4, 2012 at 1:17 PM

But it’s a sad day for all of the BDS-ers here (Belichick Derangement Syndrome) because the Patriots have a Bye Week.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:03 PM

I don’t like the Pats, but I respect them. They’ve been putting out a quality product for a long time. They are always a force to be reckoned with.

BTW, I understand why Ed hasn’t done an NFL thread. Check out THIS article… the pictures are breathtakingly bad.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:18 PM

I’ll avoid the next poll thread, too. Let’s see how it looks with only trolls making posts.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I’m in. I’ll go blow off steam over at Ace’s if he’ll have me.

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:18 PM

working class artist …Pennsylvania and American Catholics thus the term cafeteria catholics) go against the Bishop and the Pope and church doctrine all the time ( on some issues 90%) so why do you think they will listen to them about voting …

U2denver on November 4, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Yeah, we know all about those Catholics-in-name-only. They even have their own “patron saints” in Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden, too. Of course they won’t listen to the bishops about voting — their only religion is Liberalism. That’s all they really care about, so I say, let ‘em. They’re the ones who will have to account for their own consciences before God. They might act all superior about it now, but I bet they will be singing a different tune on their deathbeds.

PatriotGal2257 on November 4, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Didn’t George will say the same thing

Conservative4ev on November 4, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Link Here

Interesting….

SHARPTOOTH on November 4, 2012 at 1:20 PM

I did some research on MI a while back. Blacks do make up 12% of the electorate, but they never go above 9% on voting day in MI. If they have it at 17.5%, this does not bode well for Obama. Their initial sample was actually correct.

The problem with MI in the past is that white voters were evenly split Dem and Rep. But the black vote (and women’s vote) always put Dems over the top. That’s not happening anymore. This should be even to D+4. No way is it D+9 this year.

MrX on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:06 PM

….you in?
…I remember one time when DR. Tesla was on a roll…it had 40-45 comments in a row…trying to get someone to respond even addressing poster’s by name…and nobody bit…just like the old days…and then Twerp of all people came on and smacked him!…and we all know how that eventually turned out!

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Massive Decrease in Early and Absentee Voting—in Chicago
11:56 AM, Nov 4, 2012 • By DANIEL HALPER

The Illinois Republican party claims early and absentee voting has precipitously fallen since the 2008 presidential election.

According to the numbers, at this point in 2008, there were 260,376 early voters and 304,290 absentee voters. Now, the party maintains, there are 195,064 early voters and 46,232 absentee voters. That’s a loss of 57 percent of voters, since the last election.

………………………2008…………..2012……%Change….

Chicago-Early…………260,376………..195,065…….-25%

Chicago- Absentee……..304,290…………46,232…….-85%

Chicago: E&A………….564,666………..241,296…….-57%

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

I’ll boycott as well. I might just enter a ‘boycott’ comment to make the point.

Mitsouko on November 4, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Might I suggest a small change? I don’t like the word boycott.

In its place; First!, Bishop!, gumby!, the name of one of the bloggers, or even last.

That will add the proper amount of snark.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Night Owl on November 4, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Typically I type out a response, send it to preview, edit, wordsmith, etc…then delete it. By that time the moment has passed and I feel better…and I didn’t break the Golden Rule of the interwebs.

I’m on-board for an ‘ignore’ feature though. Of course, then, I’d have to ignore the troll and everyone that responds to it.

But hey, look…new GreenRoom!

Left Coast Right Mind on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

My prediction: wrong. Romney will get IA and CO. But I love that you have WI, PA and MI for Romney…beyond my wildest dreams.

Jaibones on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

I am factoring in the preference cascade that I sense. Way too many editorials of major newspapers flipping sides.

I stand by my prediction. I disagree with you as far as IA and CO for these reasons: Iowans have a hard-headed wrongness streak that surfaces a lot. Colorado has ben invaded by way too many rich hippies.

But I am curious….. do you think that Romney will get ANY of WI, PA and MI?

My reasons:

Ryan, combined with the Walker mess, will deliver WI as a favorite son/protest vote.

Romney’s knowledge of the auto industry will deliver a MI that knows the industry is on its deathbed.

PA…. that’s just a gut feeling. There are enough hardscrabble towns that depend upon coal, and enough common sense in the western half of the state to outweigh Philly.

My predictions are worth the electrons that convey them…. but I am giving my reasoning.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:23 PM

That’s my prediction… making it now.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

In a sane world he’d only get IL, HI and DC.

The American people have a choice btw. getting out of the malaise, propagated and intensified by Obama, the division of the land by a thug in chief, or the continuation thereof and suicide.

It will be telling – I have hope for one more shot.

I predict that not all the states you listed will go for Obama.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:23 PM

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Oblama won’t get all of Maine. The state flipped red in 2010.

There’s no going back.

dogsoldier on November 4, 2012 at 1:24 PM

It w/b the ultimate justice in the world if Obama would only carry IL, HI and DC.

Decent people of America, make it so!

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Maine and Nebraska split the EVs.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

That’s right. Obama is back in a state he supposedly nailed down.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Well, you know, Obama so has a lock on this election he’s able to spend the last few days visiting the nice folks in Ohio and Iowa to thank them for giving him four more years. /

Happy Nomad on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

HAHA!

Zogby final: 47/47

Not even that rat bastard can scrounge up a win for Obama.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Yeah, I fudged the split-vote states. I’m not current on them.

How about y’all throw me some predictions on how they will split, so that I can refine my prediction?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:26 PM

….LET’S BOYCOTT gummeandpokeme FOR THE REST OF THE THREADS TODAY!!!…(so it can rejuvenate its sperm count for Monday)…OK…???

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Might I suggest a small change? I don’t like the word boycott.

In its place; First!, Bishop!, gumby!, the name of one of the bloggers, or even last.

That will add the proper amount of snark.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Poll-cot? Troll-cot?

I know…

Romney!

Mitsouko on November 4, 2012 at 1:26 PM

When blue states like Michigan and Pennsylvania start to turn purple, it often though not always follows that purple states have already turned red.

Sacramento on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily

Barone: Romney 315, Obama 223

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Didn’t George will say the same thing

Conservative4ev on November 4, 2012 at 1:19 PM

George Will predicts Romney win (321-217)

Rove: 51/48 Romney carries at least 279

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Flora Duh…

Is all well? Prayers.

either orr on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

I predict that not all the states you listed will go for Obama.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:23 PM

So you’re calling a bigger blowout than my 322-216?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Maine and Nebraska split the EVs.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

You really, honestly think that Obama’s winning Omaha again?

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Actually, my bad. I didn’t consider that you were making a statement of fact and not a prediction.

Sorry about that.

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:28 PM

God damn the fake media.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM

I made my above prediction at the top of the page by the seat of my pants – stream of consciousness. A lot of times my mind works better that way, in cognitive leaps, factoring in a lot of subconscious things.

I would like to field opinions on the split states.

Are they just Maine and Nebraska?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:06 PM

….you in?
…I remember one time when DR. Tesla was on a roll…it had 40-45 comments in a row…trying to get someone to respond even addressing poster’s by name…and nobody bit…just like the old days…and then Twerp of all people came on and smacked him!…and we all know how that eventually turned out!

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

I was thinking the exact same thing, how come people were more successfull at ignoring Dr T than claymation? I mean Dr T was bad enough but there was a certain humanity about his bizarre self too, claymation sounds like a word generating machine. shouldn’t it be easier to ignore the latter though ? For whatever reasons looks like not….

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM


I’ll avoid the next poll thread, too. Let’s see how it looks with only trolls making posts.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Count me in as well! Great idea.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM


.
.
.
YEP!!!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

I am happy to see that my seat-of-the-pants prediction tracks within one EV of George Will’s. :-)

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

I made my above prediction at the top of the page by the seat of my pants – stream of consciousness. A lot of times my mind works better that way, in cognitive leaps, factoring in a lot of subconscious things.

I would like to field opinions on the split states.

Are they just Maine and Nebraska?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Have you voted already?

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Indeed. I only make wishes, not predictions. We’re rich by virtue of hard work, talent, risk-taking, ingenuity and etc., not predicting, mooching and looting :)

That’s for the other side.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

The problem with MI in the past is that white voters were evenly split Dem and Rep. But the black vote (and women’s vote) always put Dems over the top. That’s not happening anymore. This should be even to D+4. No way is it D+9 this year.

MrX on November 4, 2012 at 1:22 PM

The problem with MI is that the state is too union-friendly with the teacher’s union and SEIU having too much control over the state government. Even after years of lousy employment numbers, the state is going to go for rat-eared wonder. I don’t know why but there is no way that the filthy bastard is going to let the state he “saved” by bailing out the UAW pension funds go for a fine upstanding individual like Mitt Romney.

Happy Nomad on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Are they just Maine and Nebraska?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Yes, they are the only ones which split.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Drudge:

GALLUP: 2008: 54% D, 42% R
2012: 49% R, 46% D

portlandon on November 4, 2012 at 1:32 PM

How about we split Maine 3-1 for 0bama and Nebraska 4-1 for Romney?

That would leave my prediction unchanged at 322-216.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:33 PM

MKH just started a new polling thread. Let’s put this plan in motion!

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Have you voted already?

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Yep. Due to the unexpected trip to California, I had to go to the courthouse for 2 hours to early-vote.

You?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I’ll avoid the next poll thread, too. Let’s see how it looks with only trolls making posts.
Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Count me in as well! Great idea.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

I don’t think they/he will, they will come chasing and haunting us on other threads, I saw claymation doing this lately. Now he is infesting the most neutral non-poll threads. Arrgh, it’s claymation plague.

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

So do you folks think that Omaha will make Nebraska split 3-2 Romney, or will it be 4-1… or something else?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:35 PM

MKH just started a new polling thread. Let’s put this plan in motion!

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Waiting for KOOLAIDE2 to make the announcement.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:35 PM

MKH just started a new polling thread. Let’s put this plan in motion!

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Done

Trollcot!

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:36 PM

schadenfreude, which of PA, WI, MI do you think would be hardest for R/R to win?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Isn’t going to happen. Months ago, Gumbo didn’t show up on every single thread but lately he’s reached the point of nagging. Same old tired lines, spewing rather than trying to have actual conversations with people.

It’s become tedious, which is what libs like doing to Conservative sites: make them so unpleasant the regulars leave for quieter venues. Last one standing keeps the battlefield.

Only HA management can control that, but they’re not seeming to though many of us wish something would be done to end the constant disruption.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 12:26 PM

This is not the only problem here.

The comment section has not had a meaningful upgrade at all since the site formed (2006).

Comments should be numbered, there should (absolutely) be an ignore button, and user profiles should be able to track everything that they’ve posted, and easily refer back to them.

Granted, this would require essentially scrapping whatever back-end is in place now (easier than trying to build on top of what’s there, probably), and, depending on how many new database tables are needed, might be easier to build a new database from scratch as well than to try to shoehorn all this new stuff in. Then a whole lot of data would have to be imported (possibly being re-entered manually, depending on the structure of the new database; then again, the tables could be built with enough old variables in place to allow for clean imports) from old to new.

I’m not saying that this wouldn’t take time, and might require divorcing from the current WordPress structure (thus necessitating mass re-registration with a new commenting client/system).

But, six years, no changes. And trolls who hijack threads. With no ability to ignore them, since HA management won’t ban them.

I mean all this constructively. Upgrades are good things.

Hawkins1701 on November 4, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Maine and Nebraska split the EVs.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:25 PM

You really, honestly think that Obama’s winning Omaha again?

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:27 PM

District 2 was gerrymandered in 2011, diluting the libtards…

OmahaConservative on November 4, 2012 at 1:38 PM

MKH just started a new polling thread. Let’s put this plan in motion!

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

In on the plan, out of the thread!

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

Then we have to avoid talking to him. Or, stop posting on the thread the instant he comments. We can do this all day, until HA management takes notice of our displeasure.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:38 PM

Where is this site called Ace? Sounds like it’s worth a view.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 12:47 PM

http://www.ace.mu.nu

Ace is great, Gabe Malor is great, the others are pretty good, and their number-cruncher, CAC, is sharp as a tack.

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Yeah…Great writing & one of the funniest threads on the net.

They take sockpuppetry to the level of fine art…It’s why my keyboard is so lousy as I’ve had to mop it up so often guffawing over a sockpuppet with liquid in my mouth…
just sayin’

workingclass artist on November 4, 2012 at 1:38 PM

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Especially on long threads I’m never inclined to read every comment…most interesting to me is mise en temps commenting…

However, I sometimes go look at the beginning and when I find discepancy, like the Hume lie, it gets corrected, especially that the media sure lies. Why should we?

Now, I can completeley ignore the entire world for a long time, if I so decide.

On the HA trolls – they generate revenue and are pro-HA-Capitalism, which is the ultimate irony.

After Wednesday they will drown and end up this.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:39 PM

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:35 PM

I think Nebraska is going lock, stock and barrel for Romney, Deb Fischer’s going to clean Bob Kerrey’s clock, and all of the state’s GOP House members will remain House members.

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:39 PM

BTW, Noel Sheppard at NewsBusters has already weighed in on the journalistic objectivity shown by NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, who said:

This was a campaign built to turn out the base of the Party, and here was a moment handed to him seemingly from above where he could look like that strong, independent, steady in a storm, very appealing to the middle of the road voters, and I might add to unmarried women voters who are going to be very key in this election.

Noel says:

So God decided to kill innocent people and destroy lives and property in some of the most populated states in this nation to help Obama get re-elected.

Wow!

And some of the comments are Comedy Gold. My faves:

I personally don’t think Obama’s response to the storm has been that impressive. She’s also forgetting that this storm has made unions, which Obama strongly supports, look bad as they’ve turned away help from crews in right-to-work states.

“might add to unmarried women voters.” Wow, I didn’t know the storm rained down a bunch of birth control.

Well she’s in deep kaka now. A) democrats don’t believe in “above” and B) Sandy was caused by global warming. Never mind she thinks God loves Obama so much he sent a plague to help him? She might think he’s Moses but in Israel he’s thought of more like Pharoah.

If he was the messiah he clalms to be there would have been no hurricane.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:41 PM

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:36 PM

If you guys don’t want to answer the trolls, fine, but do comment a lot on MKH’s thread. You don’t want to let them win. Comment on the truth and the facts, as you find them, your sentiments and etc. Don’t boycott anything. Annoy the rats. They are very scared and the latrine waves are very high. The stench is palpable.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Have you voted already?

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Yep. Due to the unexpected trip to California, I had to go to the courthouse for 2 hours to early-vote.

You?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:34 PM

On election day, am a bit old fashioned when it comes to voting, the French side of me :)… don’t want anybody to mess with my ballot or ‘lose’ it in the mail…I don’t think we have early voting here in Cali, other than through the mail…and I don’t like that idea. Of voting through mail. When we were living in England and my wife was receiving her absentee ballot there (I wasn’t a citizen at the time) you have no idea how many times they got her APO address ‘wrong’ …yeah, right, I guess that’z coz she is a registered republican…and you don’t want to know the commotion that ensued trying to get her another ballot (apparently it is not legally possible to issue someone another bsllot, only s provisional ballot thst doesn’t get counted right away, they have to wait ten days or some cr*p like that).. …I had to sort it all out for her, because at the time we noticed that her ballot didn’t reach us in England, she was getting ready to deploy to Qatar for 4 months….so, yeah, I don’t trust those bastards…and we are both registered as independents now, to make sure they don’t get our address here in Cali ‘wrong’ :)…

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Best Case Prediction:
Romney 54% 353 EVs (36 states, ME+1)
Obama 44% 185 EVs (CA,OR,WA,HI,IL,DC,MD,DE,NJ,NY,VT,CN,RI,ME+3)

Worst Case Prediction:
Romney 50% 281 EVs (29 states, ME+1)
Obama 48% 257 EVs (add NV,NM,CO,IA,MN,MI,PA to above)

I’m leaning strongly toward the first.

spiritof61 on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

God damn the fake media.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:29 PM

So, I suppose it is safe to say that the Phrase “Fifth Column Treasonous Media” is making a lot of sense with you these days… o_O

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

you know, I normally dont bother replying to trolls such as you but if you are implying what I think you are …you are the lowest of the low. I live here at the epicenter of this disaster, I have seen stuff in the past week no man should ever witness much less have to live through…revel in your lowbrow bottomfeding existence…fool.

NY Conservative on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

schadenfreude, which of PA, WI, MI do you think would be hardest for R/R to win?

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:37 PM

MI

WI goes Ryan.

PA is already Romney. When it’s even, the challenger wins. Americans don’t like losers, never did, never will.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I think Nebraska is going lock, stock and barrel for Romney, Deb Fischer’s going to clean Bob Kerrey’s clock, and all of the state’s GOP House members will remain House members.

KingGold on November 4, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Yep. We will be redder than ever this year…

OmahaConservative on November 4, 2012 at 1:45 PM

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Roger

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Count me in as well! Great idea.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:16 PM

BRILLIANT! BRILLIANT!

The War Planner on November 4, 2012 at 1:45 PM

MA is included in Obama states above; reduced the number of Romney states by 1. :)

spiritof61 on November 4, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Best Case Prediction:
Romney 54% 353 EVs (36 states, ME+1)
Obama 44% 185 EVs (CA,OR,WA,HI,IL,DC,MD,DE,NJ,NY,VT,CN,RI,ME+3)

Worst Case Prediction:
Romney 50% 281 EVs (29 states, ME+1)
Obama 48% 257 EVs (add NV,NM,CO,IA,MN,MI,PA to above)

I’m leaning strongly toward the first.

spiritof61 on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

A best case prediction should include California, Obama is not anywhere near as popular here as the Democrat and the Fifth Column Treasonous Media want you to believe.

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

NY Conservative on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Are you hanging in? Are you and yours secure and fed? I imagine if you’re logged in that you are re-established to a point.

ManlyRush hasn’t logged on since the storm. Must be affected badly.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Okay, somebody needs to be ready with an announcement for the next one.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Okay, somebody needs to be ready with an announcement for the next one.

cozmo on November 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Sorry, but I am not up to date. If you care, pls. explain.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:49 PM

spiritof61 on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

I want Obama to lose with 47%. May good prevail and may bad really be punished.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:50 PM

If you guys don’t want to answer the trolls, fine, but do comment a lot on MKH’s thread. You don’t want to let them win. Comment on the truth and the facts, as you find them, your sentiments and etc. Don’t boycott anything. Annoy the rats. They are very scared and the latrine waves are very high. The stench is palpable.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Sorry, I cannot help you today, Comrade. We leave in about 15 minutes to pound asphalt in GOTV here in Nevada again. So, not boycotting just working hard for our team.

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Then we have to avoid talking to him. Or, stop posting on the thread the instant he comments. We can do this all day, until HA management takes notice of our displeasure.

Liam on November 4, 2012 at 1:38 PM

As I said, I’m in. To paraphrase dear leader, I’m deeply offended by claymation’s presence here.. I really am. But he’s not stupid, that pest/infestation called claymation. He wil notice that and he will probably stop posting himself (there was a time when he was afraid that he’d be banned, not anymore, when he realized how lenient the site managers are) and then surprise, , suprise, guess sho’ll show up on the open thread on Tue…the thought of it makes my stomach turn…

But I reiterate, I shall not comment on anything he posts anymore, will scroll past and ignore!!!

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:51 PM

A best case prediction should include California, Obama is not anywhere near as popular here as the Democrat and the Fifth Column Treasonous Media want you to believe.

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Best realistic case. Mitt taking CA would be outside the realm of probability; if it does occur Tuesday it would mean a nationwide blowout and all our poll-based speculation is out the window.

spiritof61 on November 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM

MI

WI goes Ryan.

PA is already Romney. When it’s even, the challenger wins. Americans don’t like losers, never did, never will.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

OK, so let me factor in Romney taking all of Nebraska.

That bumps my prediction to Romney 323, 0bama 215.

Which happens to exactly, by accident, match George Will’s prediction :-)

But now let’s give Michigan to 0bama, if it’s as you think.

Take away 16 and now it’s Romney 307, 0bama 231.

Hmmm.

I still think that R/R will take MI.

I’m feeling landslide.. I really am.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:54 PM

If he was the messiah he claims to be there would have been no hurricane.

Del Dolemonte on November 4, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Heh, he makes the waters rise at his whim :)

Damn all who rejoice in Benghazi and the storm to Hades.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

A best case prediction should include California, Obama is not anywhere near as popular here as the Democrat and the Fifth Column Treasonous Media want you to believe.

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

If Romney takes CA, then he also takes NY & NJ.

If Romney takes those, we’re looking at Reagan/Mondale ’84 territory.

I don’t think for a second that this will happen, but it’s nice to dream once in awhile :-)

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

I predict some media outlets will attempt to call Ohio for Obama before polls in Wisconsin and Iowa close. Very similar to what they tried with Florida in 2000 calling it for Gore before polls in the central time zone of Florida closed.

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Be safe and successful.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:56 PM

MI

WI goes Ryan.

PA is already Romney. When it’s even, the challenger wins. Americans don’t like losers, never did, never will.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

OK, so let me factor in Romney taking all of Nebraska.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:54 PM

is Nebraska a proportional EV state as opposed to ‘winner takes all’?

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:57 PM

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 1:54 PM

I want Mitt to be over 300, if even by 1, so that the recounts are meaningless. The rats will fight hard – they love their power and looting way more than they love the land.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:58 PM

If you guys don’t want to answer the trolls, fine, but do comment a lot on MKH’s thread. You don’t want to let them win. Comment on the truth and the facts, as you find them, your sentiments and etc. Don’t boycott anything. Annoy the rats. They are very scared and the latrine waves are very high. The stench is palpable.

Schadenfreude on November 4, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Sorry, I cannot help you today, Comrade. We leave in about 15 minutes to pound asphalt in GOTV here in Nevada again. So, not boycotting just working hard for our team.

JPeterman on November 4, 2012 at 1:51 PM

Success!!!! Drive them all to the polls!!! :)

jimver on November 4, 2012 at 1:58 PM

you know, I normally dont bother replying to trolls such as you but if you are implying what I think you are …you are the lowest of the low. I live here at the epicenter of this disaster, I have seen stuff in the past week no man should ever witness much less have to live through…revel in your lowbrow bottomfeding existence…fool.

NY Conservative on November 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

The thing is, who knows what gumbyandpokey’s real intent is with any given comment? We don’t even know if gumbyandpokey himself knows! Please don’t let yourself be affected by him.

For all we know, gumbyandpokey is only a wanking, bored Romney supporter, and because he’s not willing to be clear about his motivation, he and his commentary deserve to be taken unseriously.

Anti-Control on November 4, 2012 at 1:59 PM

If Gallup comes out with a final poll tomorrow, it could be epic….can’t wait.

tkyang99 on November 4, 2012 at 1:59 PM

An incumbent President at 46% on Gallup’s final day of polling?

That’s what you call a one term President.

BradTank on November 4, 2012 at 1:59 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

NBC/WSJ final national poll has O+1, 48-47. Romney leads indies by 7. Sample is D+2. If Romney wins indies by 7 he wins the election.

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 2:02 PM

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