Polls: Virtual ties in Michigan, Pennsylvania

posted at 11:01 am on November 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Two media polls out in normally safe Democratic states show the presidential race in considerable flux — and pundits with few touchstones for their final calls.  First we go to Pennsylvania, where Mitt Romney has made a last-minute personal push for a state that hasn’t gone Republican in 24 years — and the new poll from the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review suggests he has a real shot at winning:

President Obama and Republican Mitt Romney entered the final days of the presidential race tied in a state that the campaigns only recently began contesting, a Tribune-Review poll shows.

The poll showed the race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes locked up at 47 percent in its final week. Romney was scheduled to campaign in the Philadelphia area on Sunday, and former President Bill Clinton planned to stump for Obama on Monday. The campaigns have begun to saturate the airwaves with millions of dollars in presidential advertising.

“They’re both in here because of exactly what you’re seeing” in this poll, said Jim Lee, president of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which surveyed 800 likely voters Oct. 29-31. Most of the interviews occurred after Hurricane Sandy inundated Eastern and Central Pennsylvania. The poll’s error margin is 3.46 percentage points.

The PTR didn’t release the poll internals, but Lee told me this week that the poll is D+7, 44/37/19.  SPR wanted to stick with one turnout model, and that closely resembles 2008′s electorate in PA.  This result matches very closely to yesterday’s SPR poll results on the Senate race in PA, also a virtual dead heat.

In Michigan, perhaps the results come as an even bigger surprise, where Obama figured to ride the auto bailouts to an easy victory.  A new poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun of over 1900 likely voters has Romney ahead of Obama by less than one percent, 46.86%/46.24%.  The same pollster had Obama with nearly a 4-point lead before the first debate.  Also, this same poll shows Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow beating Pete Hoekstra rather easily, 50/43 — so it doesn’t appear to have a significant Republican tilt.

In fact, the sample is reasonably Democratic, although perhaps underrepresenting independents.  The D/R/I is 44/35/21; in 2008, 41/29/29, and no exit polling exists for 2010.  The poll did reweight in several categories to make up for deficiencies in demographics, as almost all pollsters do, but there are a couple of interesting points about the weighting, too.  After their initial sample only included 8% African-Americans, the pollster reweighted them to 17.5%. In 2008, though, this bloc only comprised 12% of the MI electorate.  At the same time, though, they appear to have overweighted seniors at the expense of middle-aged voters, but the two together look similar to 2008.

It looks like a surprise could be brewing in two Democratic states.

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Maybe.

rob verdi on November 4, 2012 at 11:02 AM

No way. This is bad news for Romney.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

My wife comes from a big blue collar union family here in Michigan. There is ZERO enthusiasm for Obama. There not going to vote for Romney but my gut tells me many are going to sit it out.

brewcrew67 on November 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Obama at 47% in PA? Romney is doomed.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:05 AM

No comment on the Minnesota poll?

Turnout is key – every freaking conservative/republican better get off their butts on Tuesday and vote (if they haven’t already).

gophergirl on November 4, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Depleted uranium!

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Nothing a little magic D+ can’t fix.

Punchenko on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I was just looking at the MI poll’s charts -n- graphs. (There is a pdf at the link.) I thought that they might have under-sampled blacks a bit. Still, a virtual tie in MI! Anything can happen on Tuesday.

Also, most of the proposals look to be going my way. So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

2008 turnout?
HAHAH

blatantblue on November 4, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Nate Silver now entering CYA mode..

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:07 AM

THINK ABOUT THIS: The pollsters assumption of a turnout similar to 2008 MUST HAPPEN for Obama to win. Anything less he loses.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Nothing a little magic D+ can’t fix.

Punchenko on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Vitamin D+?

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

NATE SILVER WALKBACK:

If Romney wins PV by 1% he has 70% chance of winning.

Well duh.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

THINK ABOUT THIS: The pollsters assumption of a turnout similar to 2008 MUST HAPPEN for Obama to win. Anything less he loses.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Been saying that to all of the eeyore-cons in my life.

For Obama to win all of these states, you need to assume he will get the 2008 turnout again. What mullarkey.

blatantblue on November 4, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Romney voters: I will crawl over ground glass to vote.

Zero voters: Do you guys know how to watch porn on this Obamaphone?

Rational Thought on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Nothing a little magic D+ can’t fix.

Punchenko on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Vitamin D+?

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Sure, you just add it to your poll juice.

Mitsouko on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

“You’re stupid if you think it’s close”
- Paul Krugman

tkyang99 on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

IMHO the samples may be oversampling dems in both these polls but I’m sure rubber breath will tell us all they are outliers and Romney is doomed.

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Very encouraging news. If either state goes to Romney, it will be a landslide.

Jack_Burton on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Also, most of the proposals look to be going my way. So I’ve got that going for me, which is nice.

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

As a Michigan resident myself Proposals 2 and 3 are terrifying. Hopefully they both go down, but if they don’t they will be a disaster for Michigan.

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

NATE SILVER WALKBACK:

If Romney wins PV by 1% he has 70% chance of winning.

Well duh.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Bwa ha ha!!! Nate Silverfish – slippery guy.

Mitsouko on November 4, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Support for Mitt in my area of PA is unbelievably strong. I just want to walk into my precinct and cast a vote. The crowds will be large and the excitement level high. Can’t wait.

Philly on November 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

rubber breath

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Heh!

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Rational Thought on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Zero voters: You’re damn right I’ll be out making my voice heard on Tuesday! Halo 4 goes on sale!!

Election? What election?

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Nate Silver: pulling it out of his butt since 2007.

ElectricPhase on November 4, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I live in the Lehigh Valley in PA. (That’s the Allentown, Easton, Bethlehem area) Outside of philly and pittsburgh it’s the most populated area of the state. I have seen nothing but Romney and Tom Smith yard signs. I have seen very few Obama signs and NO Casey signs. One Obama house was tp’ed pretty bad on mischief night. (not that I approve of that)

So to say the least, it appears the GOP has all the enthusiasm here.

Utica681 on November 4, 2012 at 11:13 AM

I think quite a few Dems will tell the pollsters that they are voting for Obama, but when they get in the polling booth they will vote for Romney. So I feel the polls are inflated against Romney, but the voting will turn against Obama.

Those whispers from empty wallets have a way of changing minds.

Tuesday is just around the corner – we will see…

Timothy S. Carlson on November 4, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Does Nate Silver have a mustache?

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Heh!

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

dumbyanddopey aka rupoll aka troll.

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Obama is on my TV now telling us that “al-Qaeda is on the run”

When they’re running into our embassy to rape & murder our ambassador most folks wouldn’t call that “on the run” since they’re running at us, not from us.

batterup on November 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

You hear people saying this and that. You have state polls looking bad and national polls looking good. We have Dick Morris talking landslide for weeks, and they have Nate Silver channeling his inner Dick Morris on the other side, with the cover of his “model”.

You don’t know what to think, but when Michael Barone says he thinks Romney can crack 300, then I believe we’re right there ready to take this thing. He doesn’t play games. These are a couple datapoints that reinforce that.

stldave on November 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Amanda Carpenter ‏@amandacarpenter
Dear God. Savannah Guthrie just called #sandy a “moment handed from above” for Obama to appear presidential

Just what I’ve been saying. The hurricane was a Godsend for Obama. Hell for everyone else, but a Godsend for him.

Sandy saved his job.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Are some of you forgetting the sarc tag?

Jackalope on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Utica681 on November 4, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Illinoise is blue because of Cook & DuPage counties.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

As a Michigan resident myself Proposals 2 and 3 are terrifying. Hopefully they both go down, but if they don’t they will be a disaster for Michigan.

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Yep. BTW, Follow the link, and you can download the poll results on pdf.

12-2: Yes:41% No:51% UD:7.5%
12-3: Yes:36% No:57% UD:6.6%

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

No way. This is bad news for Romney.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMDAY8H5yIw

VegasRick on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Does Nate Silver have a mustache?

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

No, but his mother does.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:16 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

And once again, you’re an idiot.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I the D+ is likely a reasonable assumption given the fact of tampered voting machines, mysterious ballots suddenly appearing and ballots from GOP precincts being dumped in the rivers.

pat on November 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

So everyone totally discounts 2010 turnout model?

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!

Guess they’ll be in for a little shock Tuesday night.

That’s OK, though, I’m sure the Skittle Pooping Unicorn will be in this thread soon to explain it all to us…

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on November 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Inventory of the Whitehouse Crockery: One Barack Obama, check, One Moochell Obama, check, two little Obama girls, Check, One very scared Portuguese Water Dog… Ok… where’s the Portuguese Water Dog?

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

If Romney wins PV by 1% he has 70% chance of winning.

PV?

disa on November 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

VegasRick on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Shut up, Vega$Rick!

You ruined my Gumbo bit!

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Gumby’s still drooling over the dead in NYC. Disgusting.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:18 AM

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

How do you think the proposals on the Michigan ballot will affect Democrat, Republican, and Independent turnout? I’d like to hear your take.

DrStock on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

NATE SILVER WALKBACK:

If Romney wins PV by 1% he has 70% chance of winning.

Well duh.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Lol. I was watching a Red Eye clip last night, and Levy made him out to be some kind of genius because he was so accurate in ’08.

(I had no idea who he was.)

Your quote is too funny.

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

where’s the Portuguese Water Dog?

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Rotating on a spit.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

If Romney’s election depends upon him winning Mich. and Penn. (and Minn.) well…good luck with that. Now, I’m not saying he’s desperate, but I’m just saying he’s desperate. The HA staff has resulted to picking any poll that shows that Romney can win. RCP has the numbers, but for whatever reason conservatives pick the outliers. It’s like, if you show up for the meeting at 7:00am and the meeting is already in progress, it’s probably not everyone else…it’s probably you; you’re probably late. Is there a chance that everyone else is early? Sure. But I’d put my money on you being late.

StoneKrab on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Brit Hume is an honest, stand-up guy who tells it like it is.

He predicted an Obama victory this morning.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

If my Aunt had ______ she’d be my Uncle……
Signed
Nate Silver.

Herb on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

2008 turnout?
HAHAH
blatantblue on November 4, 2012 at 11:07 AM

That seems to be the key to an Obama victory. The idea is that they’ll get even more Dems to vote than last time. I think it seems a bit silly, but they all seem to believe it. I really don’t know anyone who didn’t vote for Obama last time that is going to this time… There are a bunch of new college students that were under 18 in 2008? Maybe them? Maybe old democrats who were anti Obama because of Hillary but are now on board with Obama. Maybe old racist democrats who wouldn’t vote for a black guy and now will?

That’s all I can come up with.

happytobehere on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

OMG LOCK IT.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Well I better get moving so I can pick up my parents on time for the Ryan rally.

Here’s hoping we overflow that airplane hangar.

gophergirl on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Amanda Carpenter ‏@amandacarpenter
Dear God. Savannah Guthrie just called #sandy a “moment handed from above” for Obama to appear presidential

Just what I’ve been saying. The hurricane was a Godsend for Obama. Hell for everyone else, but a Godsend for him.

Sandy saved his job.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

You’re mentally ill. All we’ve seen are stories of horror and despair from Staten Island. And this is “saving” him? You’re ill. Very.

Marcus on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

2 days out from election, whose polling camp would you rather be in? Yea, me too, right here.

hillsoftx on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

StoneKrab on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Stoner still trolling.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Shut up, Vega$Rick!

You ruined my Gumbo bit!

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Ok. So I could have gone with this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ

VegasRick on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

2008 turnout?
HAHAH

blatantblue on November 4, 2012 at 11:07 AM

While a 2008 turnout sounds like idiocy to you and me, at least it gives the polling company something approaching a leg to stand on, rather than reading tea leaves and chicken entrails to determine whether the sample should be D+7, D+11, or D+13. “Hey, our sample for this election was weighted exactly to match the verified breakdown from the last election.”

JimLennon on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Ah, numbersmuncher talking about if the hurricane had an impact…hmmm…

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Again, minor changes, but to say it didn’t hurt Romney or help Obama is insane. Job approval #s higher, nat’l polls tightened a bit.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Romney voters: I will crawl over ground glass to vote.

Zero voters: Do you guys know how to watch porn on this Obamaphone?

Rational Thought on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Exactly.

I’m thinking of bringing along some hot coals to walk over on my way into the voting booth just so I can prove to my liberal friends what I’ve been promising all along.

SoRight on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

JimLennon on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Gallup, Rasmussen, and now Pew are predicting 2004 party levels.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

NATE SILVER WALKBACK:

If Romney wins PV by 1% he has 70% chance of winning.

Well duh.

mitchellvii on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Did he really? Where? It’s not on his Twitter feed.

He’s playing this Pop Vote game, where if Obama goes up +1, he’s at 98%, but if Romney does, he only gets to 30%

Which makes no sense. +1 gets him to 55%.

That’s what “+1″ means.

budfox on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Idea that Hurricane Sandy didn’t have any effect on the race is a mess. It didn’t flip it upside down, but it stalled Romney for three days.
Expand

No net gain for Obama. Romney only briefly stalled. Sorry, Obamabot.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Ok. So I could have gone with this one

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NmZRDUO1wGQ

VegasRick on November 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAH………………….

SWalker on November 4, 2012 at 11:23 AM

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Yep. BTW, Follow the link, and you can download the poll results on pdf.

12-2: Yes:41% No:51% UD:7.5%
12-3: Yes:36% No:57% UD:6.6%

RedCrow on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Yes on 1…No on the rest!
My wife and I cancelled each other out on the 2/3rds for a tax hike…I voted yes…just to be a prick!

KOOLAID2 on November 4, 2012 at 11:23 AM

When Obama is tie with Romney in Pennsylvania and Michigan two days before Elections Day then it is over for Obama… However there is no need to even look at the polls anymore because on November 6 2012 Romney is going to be elected the 45th President of the United States of America…

mnjg on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Brit Hume is an honest, stand-up guy who tells it like it is.

He predicted an Obama victory this morning.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

1 person? How many lib papers who picked Obama in 08 and have now switched allegiances? How many MCcain papers now endorsing Obama?

Not a chance.

hillsoftx on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

But..but wait a minute!

BINDERS!
BIG BIRD!
BAYONETS!
BOMBER JACKET!

HURRICANE!!

TarheelBen on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Question: Have any votes been counted yet?

How many ‘democrats’ who’ve early voted or who plan on voting are introspective enough to vote for Romney over the failure?

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Why is HA allowing all threads to deteriorate just days before this important election?

I may find another site for election night if the troll is not ejected before then.

DrStock on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

While a 2008 turnout sounds like idiocy to you and me, at least it gives the polling company something approaching a leg to stand on, rather than reading tea leaves and chicken entrails to determine whether the sample should be D+7, D+11, or D+13. “Hey, our sample for this election was weighted exactly to match the verified breakdown from the last election.”

JimLennon on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

There is plenty of polling data to indicate D+7 or better is a pipe dream. There are also hard party registration numbers as well. And let’s not forget the 2010 election. And please don’t forget that the Dem turnout advantage in 2008 was also inflated by low Republican turnout.

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:25 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher
Idea that Hurricane Sandy didn’t have any effect on the race is a mess. It didn’t flip it upside down, but it stalled Romney for three days.

That’s the bomber jacket poll–let’s see Staten Island dumper diving, 6 hr gas line poll….

hillsoftx on November 4, 2012 at 11:25 AM

My husband’s sister lives in MI. She was an Øbama supporter.

Two days ago, she told him that she had voted for Romney (either early or absentee, not sure which).

She said the Benghazi situation angered her so much, she couldn’t bring herself to vote for Øbama.

She said to my husband, “Don’t tell the rest of the family!”

keebs on November 4, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Gumby – you can keep claiming what you want.

Fact remains – before the storm, you were saying the exact same thing.

If you had said differently, you would have credibility.

But you didn’t.

So you don’t.

Ed – Ban. This. Hump.

budfox on November 4, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I get very anxious about all of this and then I remind myself, they are fighting this election out in democrat states. They are fighting for Pennsylvania, not Indiana. Romney wins.

bopbottle on November 4, 2012 at 11:27 AM

That’s the bomber jacket poll–let’s see Staten Island dumper diving, 6 hr gas line poll….

hillsoftx on November 4, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Bad news: Staten Island is fulla Rethuglicans.

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:27 AM

keebs on November 4, 2012 at 11:25 AM

No early voting in Michigan. Only absentee ballots.

NotCoach on November 4, 2012 at 11:28 AM

I am looking at the various editorial endorsements from surprising news sources, combined with late poll movement.

Folks, I think the Preference Cascade may be in motion here.

I’m smelling landslide.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Brit Hume is an honest, stand-up guy who tells it like it is.

He predicted an Obama victory this morning.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

This is the same guy you ridiculed last Sunday for saying the Battleground poll would show Romney ahead by 5.

Sorry rubber breath but once again you fail. I’ll take Michael Barone’s prediction.

bgibbs1000 on November 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Just what I’ve been saying. The hurricane was a Godsend for Obama. Hell for everyone else, but a Godsend for him.

Sandy saved his job.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

seJust what I’ve been saying. The hurricane was a Godsend for Obama. Hell for everyone else, but a Godsend for him.

Sandy saved his job.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

SE PA, including the four swing suburbs, doesn’t give squat about Obama.

The One is not out reconnecting power lines; PECO is.

SEPTA got the trains and busses running again.

A local TV station has a portable generator truck going around Bucks County with dozens of plugs so people can come out and charge up phones and computers.

Wethal on November 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

bopbottle on November 4, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Think about this:

If these polls showing huge D turnout are true, why are they not being reflected in House races?

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

How is it possible that any pundits or Democrats could see Romney tied with President Obama in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota and still think he’s going to win the popular vote?

I could kinda-sorta understand their faith in Obama winning Ohio considering how much of his resources have gone into the state. The idea that all that effort may have changed the dynamics of the state that have traditionally kept it close to the national average. However, I don’t buy Ohio going blue if Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisonsin and Iowa have all become “toss-ups” with Democrat friendly turn-out models.

In 2008 I hoped that McCain would win, but sort of thought he was going to lose. In 2012 I want and hope that Romney will win and actually am considering him the shoe-in…it just doesn’t reason out that President Obama would have to be defending ground if he were going to win the popular vote or win at all. Shouldn’t North Carolina be where the battle is and Florida?

Nobody is talking about the “swing states” of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia anymore and no matter how much they scoff at the possibility of Obama losing blue states they’re still at least talking about those states.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 4, 2012 at 11:30 AM

The PTR didn’t release the poll internals, but Lee told me this week that the poll is D+7, 44/37/19. SPR wanted to stick with one turnout model, and that closely resembles 2008′s electorate in PA. This result matches very closely to yesterday’s SPR poll results on the Senate race in PA, also a virtual dead heat.

Matching the 2008 turnout is prima facie unreasonable and oversamples Ds by at least 3 points.

In Michigan, perhaps the results come as an even bigger surprise, where Obama figured to ride the auto bailouts to an easy victory. A new poll from Foster McCollum White Baydoun of over 1900 likely voters has Romney ahead of Obama by less than one percent, 46.86%/46.24%. The same pollster had Obama with nearly a 4-point lead before the first debate. Also, this same poll shows Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow beating Pete Hoekstra rather easily, 50/43 — so it doesn’t appear to have a significant Republican tilt.

In fact, the sample is reasonably Democratic, although perhaps underrepresenting independents. The D/R/I is 44/35/21; in 2008, 41/29/29, and no exit polling exists for 2010. The poll did reweight in several categories to make up for deficiencies in demographics, as almost all pollsters do, but there are a couple of interesting points about the weighting, too. After their initial sample only included 8% African-Americans, the pollster reweighted them to 17.5%. In 2008, though, this bloc only comprised 12% of the MI electorate. At the same time, though, they appear to have overweighted seniors at the expense of middle-aged voters, but the two together look similar to 2008.

In fact, the sample is unreasonably pro Democratic and underrepresents independents. The D/R/I is 44/35/21; in 2008, 41/29/29. Ridiculous.

More evidence that my R+5 prediction is spot on.

Basilsbest on November 4, 2012 at 11:30 AM

But..but wait a minute!

BINDERS!
BIG BIRD!
BAYONETS!
BOMBER JACKET!

HURRICANE Big Storm!!

TarheelBen on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

FIFY, had to stay with the brought to you by the Letter “B” theme.

D-fusit on November 4, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I may find another site for election night if the troll is not ejected before then.

DrStock on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I’m working until after the polls close on the Left Coast on Tuesday (although if I have to take a 2 hour lunch, I WILL be voting for Romney).

While it will be frustrating to watch the results from afar on my patients’ TVs, part of me is a bit relieved I won’t be glued to Hot Air, refreshing in this nightmare of a comment format with these idiotic trolls.

keebs on November 4, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Brit Hume is an honest, stand-up guy who tells it like it is.

He predicted an Obama victory this morning.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Chris Wallace presented Axelrod with the EV numbers out of Ohio which alone completely wipe out Obama’s final 2008 margin. Axelrod responded with “we’ll see who’s bluffing on election day”. Who told us that only losers say this again?

Oh, right it was you.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Brit Hume is an honest, stand-up guy who tells it like it is.

He predicted an Obama victory this morning.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

1 person? How many lib papers who picked Obama in 08 and have now switched allegiances? How many MCcain papers now endorsing Obama?

Not a chance.

hillsoftx on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I hope you know that an endorsement is who you want to win, and not a prediction, which is who you think will win.

I’m sure Brit Hume endorses Romney, but he’s a smart, realistic guy who can read the tea-leaves and knows Obama is a lock for re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

bbbbbuuuuttttt this can’t be…..

per Axelrod: ‘They’re in deep trouble’

PappyD61 on November 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Hume knows more than Barone or Rove! Well, except…no.

It’s a safe place to be. When he’s wrong, he’s ecstatic and can point to all of the unforeseens.

But he looks like a down-the-middle guy by predicting otherwise.

Sugar Land on November 4, 2012 at 11:32 AM

ED and AP: U have my vote to ban gumby…mainly because he’s a liar and a putz.

gracie on November 4, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Question: Have any votes been counted yet?

How many ‘democrats’ who’ve early voted or who plan on voting are introspective enough to vote for Romney over the failure?

Lanceman on November 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Well, in 2004, several voting machines that were supposed to have been cleared and secured turned up at Philly polling places with several hundred “votes” already registered. (We don’t have early voting, by the way.) The machines were cleared again.

Wethal on November 4, 2012 at 11:32 AM

Basilsbest, R+5 in Pennsylvania???

This is the first I’ve seen of your prediction, but I’d be open to hearing it out. What do you base the R+5 on? Evangelicals? Hidden voters? A turbo-charged Bradley Effect combined with GOP Enthusiasm surge?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 4, 2012 at 11:33 AM

FIFY, had to stay with the brought to you by the Letter “B” theme.

D-fusit on November 4, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Heh, okay. :)

TarheelBen on November 4, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Jake Tapper ‏@jaketapper

Wisconsin State Journal editorial board backed Obama in 08,

Romney in ’12 > http://bit.ly/UsUj7U

Resist We Much on November 4, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I’m sure Brit Hume endorses Romney, but he’s a smart, realistic guy who can read the tea-leaves and knows Obama is a lock for re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Barone didn’t.

Chuck Schick on November 4, 2012 at 11:34 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Each time you declared a “lock” on something, it’s been blown away.

You’re an idiot.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I am looking at the various editorial endorsements from surprising news sources, combined with late poll movement.

Folks, I think the Preference Cascade may be in motion here.

I’m smelling landslide.

cane_loader on November 4, 2012 at 11:28 AM

OK, what late national poll movement are you seeing that leads you to believe the vaunted “preference cascade” is going to appear?

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Good point! Another reason to be optimistic. Thanks.

bopbottle on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Benghazi, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nobody cares about Benghazi.
gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 1:14 AM

novaculus on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

You’ve never explained your comment last night on how O being at 47% in PA is bad for Romney.

wargamer6 on November 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

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