Virtual tie in PA Senate race

posted at 1:01 pm on November 3, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

According to a new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research, conducted for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, the Senate seat considered safe for much of this election has now become a toss-up.  Republican challenger Tom Smith has gained four points in a month to come within a point of Democratic incumbent Robert Casey, in a state where Mitt Romney has begun to focus on his final campaign drive:

Republican U.S. Senate nominee Tom Smith narrowed the race against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., pulling nearly even in a Tribune-Review poll.

Casey polled 46 percent to Smith’s 45 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research in Harrisburg.

Those figures show stagnation for Casey but a 4-point gain for Smith since a Trib-commissioned poll Sept. 12.

The more recent poll of 800 people from Oct. 29-31 has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The story doesn’t include the sample, but the partisan split is D+6 at 44/38/18, as I recall from my interview with Jim Lee of Susquehanna.  The last Franklin & Marshall poll, which Casey’s camp cites as a rebuttal to Susquehanna, had a D+13 sample of 50/37/13 and gave Casey an 11-point lead.  Lee feels this kind of split widely oversamples Democrats in relation to turnout, and on the basis of history, he’s obviously right.  The turnout in Pennsylvania in 2008 was 44/37/18, almost identical to what Lee uses in his weighting, and arguably a high-water mark that Democrats aren’t likely to reach four years later.  The difference between the two polls is almost entirely found within that difference in party split.

That brings me to my next point.  The Franklin & Marshall poll that showed Casey 11 points up in a D+13 sample also had Barack Obama only four points ahead of Mitt Romney, 48/44.  If there’s a a ten-point difference between the two polls in the Senate race, what might be happening in the presidential race?  We will find out tomorrow, as Susquehanna and the PTR has the poll results in the presidential race coming tomorrow.  I’d bet we’ll see why Mitt Romney will make one last big push in the Keystone State, and why Obama and his campaign are dumping a fortune into Pennsylvania at the last minute.

 


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Again, the best hope we seem to find is from candidates running strong, non-ideological races in purple states.

Good.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Hee Hee

Hee Haw Haw

JohnGalt23 on November 3, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Looking forward to the coming landslide on Tuesday with the rest of the media promoting the usual Upper West Side Mantra of, “I don’t know how he won. I don’t know anyone that voted for him (Romney).”

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama holds steady as 3.25:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Thur 3:0:1
Fri: 3.25:1
sat: 3.25:1

Obama is surging in 100% swing state polls. The hurricane has allowed Americans to reconsider what really matters and take a

break from the election. Chritie’s compliments were a refreshing change of pace. Romney is desperately searching for another

path to 270 with weird ads and visits to safely Democratic states. Obama is now an 8 to 1 favorite in Nevada, and a 6 to 1

favorite in Wisconsin. Nevada may be pulled off the wagering board soon due to “lock” status. Add Ohio elctoral votes (3:1

favorite) and it is all over with 271 votes.

Obama has led this election from day one. At his lowest point, Obama was about a 1.5:1 favorite, but he has been increasing

ever since to the current 3.25 to 1 favorite status. Remember all of the sites, pundits, pollsters, etc that have fed you

misinformation the whole time during this election cycle. The next cycle you will be more prepared to understand what it

really going on.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-

house

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama holds steady as 3.25:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Thur 3:0:1
Fri: 3.25:1
sat: 3.25:1

Obama is surging in 100% swing state polls. The hurricane has allowed Americans to reconsider what really matters and take a break from the election. Chritie’s compliments were a refreshing change of pace. Romney is desperately searching for another path to 270 with weird ads and visits to safely Democratic states. Obama is now an 8 to 1 favorite in Nevada, and a 6 to 1 favorite in Wisconsin. Nevada may be pulled off the wagering board soon due to “lock” status. Add Ohio elctoral votes (3:1 favorite) and it is all over with 271 votes.

Obama has led this election from day one. At his lowest point, Obama was about a 1.5:1 favorite, but he has been increasing ever since to the current 3.25 to 1 favorite status. Remember all of the sites, pundits, pollsters, etc that have fed you misinformation the whole time during this election cycle. The next cycle you will be more prepared to understand what it really going on.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

What, you mean by examining early-voting totals in swing states, registration changes and cash investment differences from 2008, and examining the differences in voter behavior based on what data we have from swing counties, as Jim Geraghty, Jay Cost, Michael Barone and Sean Trende have been doing?

Or should we go with something more fact-based, like bookies?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Harry Reid, you monster, tremble.

Schadenfreude on November 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

This is Tingles Matthew’s seat (he hilariously keeps hinting he’s going for it but the slob now has to wait until 2016!) and it will be the last race they call. Toomey was finally declared the winner in 2010 by Tingles at about 3 am when all other stations were in repeats and the lights in the other studios turned off.

Marcus on November 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

This is one race I would love us to steal. Casey has been a lock-step vote for the Democrats. He is a Senator only because his Dad was a popular Governor in PA and the name association gets him a lot of votes. He has no ideas of his own, and doesn’t propose anything so nothing can bite him in the arse.

He is exactly the kind of idiot that needs to be removed from politics. If Romney wins PA I think Smith can pull this out.

goflyers on November 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

You and “thinking” in one sentence makes one’s day.

Schadenfreude on November 3, 2012 at 1:08 PM

we are standing in line to get into the paul ryan rally in harrisburg, PA right now. easily a few thousand of us on line, and the hangar is already packed. we’ll be lucky if we get inside. there is a real sense that the tide changed and Romney really is going to carry PA. good stuff!!!!

rampage on November 3, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Thanks Zippy!

I assume you have the bulk of your personal fortune wagered? taking candy from babies and all….

Northwoods on November 3, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Rumor has it Romney will show 4 point lead over Obama? I see promising signs. Both Chester and Delaware counties have an R registration advantage. In Bucks the D advantage has been reduced to 11,000 votes while Montgomery is reduced to 40,000. Obama can still win Montgomery if Bucks gets to a tie. There are 65,000 Independents in Bucks and 2000 D’s left the presidential slot empty while voting down ballot. No wonder Mitt is coming to Bucks County tomorrow. The state is in play.

msmveritas on November 3, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Axelturd

Schadenfreude on November 3, 2012 at 1:10 PM

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Betting lines?? Really? That’s your “research”?

Please, by all means, continue to waste your time with that. We’ll stick to actual data.

goflyers on November 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Zippy,

one spam post is enough. No need to keep spreading your propaganda again and again.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM

the best hope we seem to find is from candidates running strong, non-ideological races in purple states.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:02 PM

I disagree. They are all running very ideological campaigns, when it comes to fiscal policy. They are just soft-pedaling social issues. And that is the recipe for success in this cycle.

alwaysfiredup on November 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM

rampage on November 3, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I have my ticket for tomorrows event in bucks county…really looking forward to it…..:)

SHARPTOOTH on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Heh. “Harbinger”. Just used that word in a real life context about a half hour ago. Anti-Smith ads here in PA are “smearing” Smith with Tea Party, as if it’s a slur needing no explanation. Keep at it. I do believe it’s a miscalculation verging on a backfire. There are enough Pennsyans left with history knowledge to know what Tea Party represents — freedom from tyranny. The pro-Casey ads are thin and information-starved. He’s been a cypher. A name only. And as such it’s understood that he’s just a good soldier in the Democrat assault on liberty. This would be a great pick-up.

curved space on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

.
Yeah, we’ll see you Tuesday night. Then you can “gloat” all you want.

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

alwaysfiredup on November 3, 2012 at 1:11 PM

True. The candidates who went whole hog on social issues are going to get flushed.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:15 PM

The problem for the Dems in the Philly swing suburbs is that voters may choose to vote for Romney, and vote for their current Congressman (Fitzpatrick, Gerlach or Meehan – Dem Schwartz does come out into the burbs a bit), and then think about senator.

It could be, “What the heck, I like my GOP state legislators, too. I’ll just pull the GOP lever. It’s faster.”

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Hopefully there will be enough of a surge in GOP votes to overcome the inevitable voter fraud engineered by the Democratic machine.

If it isn’t close, they cannot steal it.

iconoclast on November 3, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Obama is surging in 100% swing state polls. The hurricane has allowed Americans to reconsider what really matters and take a break from the election. Chritie’s compliments were a refreshing change of pace.

If Obama getting photo ops is what really matters, then we are doomed as a country.

SAZMD on November 3, 2012 at 1:20 PM

True. The candidates who went whole hog on social issues are going to get flushed.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:15 PM

You mean like all the leftists claiming that Republicans are going to take away their abortion and birth control?

For some reason I don’t think that’s what you’re talking about.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Go to InTrade and bet the house. I won a lot of money from people like you at InTrade in 2004.

Finbar on November 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

O/T

Obama drawing smaller crowds than McCain in the same venue. LOL

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Obama-Cleveland-80k-compared-to-40k

Last night, in the cold and with long lines, 30,000 people showed up in Ohio to see Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan. That same day, Obama attracted a meager 2,800. …In 2008, at his last stop in Cleveland, a Democrat stronghold, Obama attracted 80,000 people. This morning, at his last 2012 stop in that same city, Obama could only attract 4,000.

… in that exact same Cleveland venue, according to the RNC, McCain was able to attract a bigger crowd in 2008 than Obama did yesterday. Yes, that’s correct, Obama’s attracting crowds smaller than John McCain did in 2008 ….

Yesterday, CNN’s John King noted that in comparison to 2008, the Romney campaign’s ground game and the verifiable enthusiasm King’s seeing, give Romney a real chance to take the state …

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Hopefully there will be enough of a surge in GOP votes to overcome the inevitable voter fraud engineered by the Democratic machine.

If it isn’t close, they cannot steal it.

iconoclast on November 3, 2012 at 1:17 PM

Well if after votes are counted, Obama has more votes than any state has PEOPLE in them, then maybe fraud wins the day.

MICHIGAN) OBAMA 999,999,999,999,574
ROMNEY 2,100,013

Varchild on November 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Anti-Smith ads here in PA are “smearing” Smith with Tea Party, as if it’s a slur needing no explanation. Keep at it. I do believe it’s a miscalculation verging on a backfire.

curved space on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

.
Right-on.

The Casey family are “Political Royalty” in PA, nothing more.

I know there is one thing I can agree with them on; abortion.

I said last year that if Rick Santorum were to try for his old seat back (instead of the Presidency), he would most likely get it.

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Oh how sweet it would be to turn out this lefty yes-man, Casey. He’s not nearly the man his father was, and the public is starting to see it.

Heard one of his ads on radio yesterday. He’s trying to paint himself as a friend of coal and gas. Shameless.

petefrt on November 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

The Coal Miners and the “Bitter Clingers” in Pennsylvania will have the last laugh on barky…
His hatred toward the Coal industry and Christians will be the end hopenchange…good riddance hopey!

Strike Hornet on November 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Hey, Ed maybe you need to tell that clown Jazz Shaw it isn’t over in the Senate.

BTW Rasmussen has Mandel at 48-48 in Ohio also.

Conan on November 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Is Smith the guy who was un the coal business or owned a coal mine himself or something?

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Is Smith the guy who was un the coal business or owned a coal mine himself or something?

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Yes. Casey ran an ad about him forcing sick orphan children to eat coal or something like that.

Finbar on November 3, 2012 at 1:29 PM

My big fear is that Hurricane Sandy knocked out power in a lot of conservative counties, but philly’s power is untouched. Bucks county still has many power issues. This could really hurt Romney and Smith.

Utica681 on November 3, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Looking forward to the coming landslide on Tuesday with the rest of the media promoting the usual Upper West Side Mantra of, “I don’t know how he won.

Pennsylvania isn’t in play. But it’s hilarious to watch HA readers take the bait and jump all over one outlier poll, seizing it as evidence that things are going their way. Life in the bubble is GOOD!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

. Chritie’s compliments were a refreshing change of pace. Romney is desperately searching for another path to 270 with weird ads and visits to safely Democratic states.

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Ok, my innocent little friend, facts of life time.

The house derives income from “juice” or a percentage of the total bet.

Betting lines are set at the point where more fools will wager.

Polls are operated by humans who use “models” which have “assumptions” that have flaws. Get a marketing book and look this up or read:

Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy by Jeff Manza or American Public Opinion: Its Origins, Content, and Impact by Robert S. Erikson

I have a US patent in the general area and have written some so I might know what I am talking about. Maybe.

As for Chris Christie, I think that he collapsed and panicked in the face of a crisis.

We all have our melting point.

IlikedAUH2O on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Anti-Smith ads here in PA are “smearing” Smith with Tea Party, as if it’s a slur needing no explanation. Keep at it. I do believe it’s a miscalculation verging on a backfire.

curved space on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

The Dems who took over Montco County Commission in 2010 ran “tea party” ads comparing them to the Mad Hatter’s Tea Party. So they apparently think it will work statewide.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

You mean like all the leftists claiming that Republicans are going to take away their abortion and birth control?

For some reason I don’t think that’s what you’re talking about.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:21 PM

I mean that media bias can turn our candidates into raving extremists on social issues but even they can’t whitewash a failing economy.

And it’s not like morons like Akin and Mourdock haven’t given the leftists just enough rope to hang us with on those issues, you know.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:31 PM

My big fear is that Hurricane Sandy knocked out power in a lot of conservative counties, but philly’s power is untouched. Bucks county still has many power issues. This could really hurt Romney and Smith.

Utica681 on November 3, 2012 at 1:29 PM

KYW noon news says the power outages are way down, and PECO may get everything up by this weekend. The numbers of outages are off because the crews are so busy going from one place to the next that they forget to log in their latest work. Bucks was hit the hardest, but should be ok by election day, if not Sunday.

No talk of backup polling places, military trucks, generatots, etc., of any kind in Philly.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:33 PM

The one thing I’m slightly worried about in this poll is the relative weighting between Philadelphia and the rest of the state (I don’t think they’ve released the internals yet).

The partisan breakdown seems pretty good, and still maybe a bit generous for the Dems, but a Philadelphia Dem is a different animal from a central PA Dem. Oversampling the latter at the expense of the former would yield a higher number for Romney without changing the partisan split.

Anecdotal but encouraging – I was in an inner-city Philadelphia neighborhood yesterday and overheard a pro-Romney radio ad (not sure if it was from the campaign or a super-PAC). It said something like “Mitt Romney’s message is for all Americans” and had a clip of Romney saying “You don’t have to put up with $4.00 gas and 8% unemployment”, etc. Probably the ad was aimed at the suburbs, but it’s a good sign that they think it’s worth the money.

sadarj on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Clinton is going to NC. Is this back in play?

mrscullen on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Akin and Mourdock

I have been sick of the far right loons who say stupid things that do more damage than millions of intelligent comments.

The first problem is the lousy farm system of Repubs. The right gets tea party first timers and eccentrics while Dems grow in local street fights all the way up.

Also, the occasional noir mot of the left usually hurts less since the words don’t grow legs and run around for years.

Worse than losing elections is the loss of a chance to really consider issues.

I have no easy solution for this.

IlikedAUH2O on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

mrscullen on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

A lot of these venues were secured long ago.

IlikedAUH2O on November 3, 2012 at 1:40 PM

And it’s not like morons like Akin and Mourdock haven’t given the leftists just enough rope to hang us with on those issues, you know.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:31 PM

I’ll agree on media bias, but Mourdock said nothing different than any pro-life person would. Not sure your issue with him. Akin is another issue, but he’s still a reliable vote and people should vote accordingly.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:42 PM

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

So the fact that Susquehanna is embargoed from that list despite being spot-on in 2008 and showing Romney tied means what, exactly?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I have been sick of the far right loons who say stupid things that do more damage than millions of intelligent comments.

The first problem is the lousy farm system of Repubs. The right gets tea party first timers and eccentrics while Dems grow in local street fights all the way up.

Also, the occasional noir mot of the left usually hurts less since the words don’t grow legs and run around for years.

Worse than losing elections is the loss of a chance to really consider issues.

I have no easy solution for this.

IlikedAUH2O on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

No such thing as a far right loon. There are conservatives that stand on all 3 pillars of conservatism and if you have an issue with them, that’s your problem not theirs. If you’re a social leftist then go libertarian.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:44 PM

It’s funny, I usually discount a partisan poll on our side like this one and then worry about a supposed non-partisan poll like Marist with a laughable Dem skew like the new ones in Ohio and Florida.

hestrold on November 3, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Mourdock said nothing different than any pro-life person would. Not sure your issue with him.

njrob on November 3, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Number one, pro-life people do not profess to know the intentions of God. That’s the argument to conservatives.

Number two, rape is an extremely sensitive subject and should be treated with appropriate grace. That’s the argument to politics.

Mourdock failed on both counts. That’s my issue with him. And, as a matter of principle, I have an “issue” with anyone who throws away a race we had lock, stock, and barrel less than a month ago.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Clinton is going to NC. Is this back in play?

mrscullen on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Could mean a couple things…

–there truly is a national surge for Obama based on the hurricane relief optics with Christie and now NC is showing the same gains that all the other polls have

–Obama campaign thinks he’s going to lose a necessary state and is trying to make up the ground somewhere

–just trying to put Clinton in a GOP state since Romney is in PA and generate some favorable press about momentum

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 1:47 PM

So the fact that Susquehanna is embargoed from that list despite being spot-on in 2008 and showing Romney tied means what, exactly?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 1:44 PM

They’re a GOP pollster. Sometimes a good one, but they definitely have a “lean.”

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 1:49 PM

The Casey family are “Political Royalty” in PA, nothing more.

I know there is one thing I can agree with them on; abortion.

I said last year that if Rick Santorum were to try for his old seat back (instead of the Presidency), he would most likely get it.

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Junior Casey has voted for Obamacare, voted to fund Planned Parenthood, voted in lock-step with the Dems all the way. He fakes he’s pro-life, assuming people don’t realize Obama’s EO on abortion in Obamacare was worth diddly, and that the contraceptive mandate won’t infringe on religious liberty. (Regardless of what Archbishop Chaput tells Philly Catholics.)

Junior Casey is as “pro-life” as Pelosi, Durbin, any Kennedy…..His father was the real deal, which is why Dad was not allowed to speak at the 1996 Dem convention.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:49 PM

We have some real morons(not Smith) running for Senate, but hopefully Mitt’s coattails can make a difference.

Wigglesworth on November 3, 2012 at 1:50 PM

There is NO REASON that turnout will be less republican in 2012 than it was in 2010.

The base is AT A MINIMUM just as motivated as it was two years ago.

TURNOUT is key.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIkDeCkGmoM

Work it HotAirians.

Leave it all on the battlefield in the next three days.

TEANAMI 2!

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Virtual tie in PA Senate race

But Obama walked on a beach with Chris Christie!

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 1:58 PM

It may not make that much of a difference, but the absentee ballot part of the new PA voter ID law was not suspended. It was to be enforced.

At the polls, voters will be asked for ID, but can vote without one. I assume this is to have a dry run and see how many people will need the free non-driver ID.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Obama’s Cleveland Rally Attendance 20x Lower than 2008

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/03/Obama-Cleveland-80k-compared-to-4k

Been done before, but B. B. don’t get old: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4fk2prKnYnI

davidk on November 3, 2012 at 2:01 PM

a Philadelphia Dem is a different animal from a central PA Dem. Oversampling the latter at the expense of the former would yield a higher number for Romney without changing the partisan split.

sadarj on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Good point. Very different animals. Lots of central and western PA Dems are right of GOP in some NE states.

petefrt on November 3, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Utica681 on November 3, 2012 at 1:29 PM

KYW noon news says the power outages are way down, and PECO may get everything up by this weekend. The numbers of outages are off because the crews are so busy going from one place to the next that they forget to log in their latest work. Bucks was hit the hardest, but should be ok by election day, if not Sunday.

No talk of backup polling places, military trucks, generatots, etc., of any kind in Philly.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Now that things up here in northern New England are pretty much back to normal, some of the many crews we’ve had up here from other parts of the country should be stopping by to help Pennsylvania out on their ways home.

Here in NH, we had 146 crews from other states come in to help us. From as far away as Kansas City, Oklahoma, and Texas. We also had 75 crews come down from Hydro-Quebec.

Del Dolemonte on November 3, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Pennsylvania isn’t in play.

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Actions speak louder than words. I wouldn’t believe PA was in play if it weren’t for Romney traipsing around there all weekend. It costs a lot to do that both in money and time. I don’t think Romney is stupid enough to waste either on a long shot.

Odysseus on November 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Junior Casey is as “pro-life” as Pelosi, Durbin, any Kennedy…..His father was the real deal, which is why Dad was not allowed to speak at the 1996 Dem convention.

Wethal on November 3, 2012 at 1:49 PM

.
I give him credit for being personally opposed to “abortion on demand”, but he’s a coward up against his party’s majority.

I wouldn’t give the same credit to Pelosi, Durbin, or Kennedy.

I remember well, Robert Sr. being “dissed” at the 1996 Dem Convention. Damn shame.

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Actions speak louder than words. I wouldn’t believe PA was in play if it weren’t for Romney traipsing around there all weekend. It costs a lot to do that both in money and time. I don’t think Romney is stupid enough to waste either on a long shot.

Odysseus on November 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

McCain did the same thing in 08. Romney is there for the same reason…he already knows he lost.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Virtual tie in PA Senate race

But Obama walked on a beach with Chris Christie!

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 1:58 PM

Despite the desperate wishes of Dear Leader Fluffers, that walk on the beach has not resulted in any uptick in his Job Approval number in the WaPo daily tracker, and they have apparently given up on their desperately-conceived question-specific tracking “poll” on that issue (“How would you rate Obama’s overall response to the hurricane that hit the East Coast this week: excellent, good, not so good or poor?”).

That “poll” has not been updated in almost 4 days now. Wonder why? Could it be all the massive clusterfarks that have followed, both in NJ and in NY?

Del Dolemonte on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

How much will Harry Reids comment, that Romney’s plans will never make it through the Senate, effect Senate races. Let’s face it, if you’re going to vote for Romney, and there’s a Senate race in your state, do you really want to vote for Romney and not give him the necessary back-up?

bflat879 on November 3, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Foxnews.com is saying, “All In Play.”

davidk on November 3, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Clinton is going to NC. Is this back in play?

mrscullen on November 3, 2012 at 1:39 PM
Could mean a couple things…

–there truly is a national surge for Obama based on the hurricane relief optics with Christie and now NC is showing the same gains that all the other polls have

–Obama campaign thinks he’s going to lose a necessary state and is trying to make up the ground somewhere

–just trying to put Clinton in a GOP state since Romney is in PA and generate some favorable press about momentum

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Thank goodness for THAT explanation… I figured that Slick Willy is “helping” Obama somewhere where it won’t do any good, leaving Bill an out saying, “Well, I did campaign hard for him…”

Khun Joe on November 3, 2012 at 2:13 PM

McCain did the same thing in 08. Romney is there for the same reason…he already knows he lost.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

And Team Obama is in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin… why, exactly? To get some fresh air?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:13 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

.
And Team Obama is in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin… why, exactly? To get some fresh air?

KingGold
on November 3, 2012 at 2:13 PM

.
What’s wrong with fresh air? . : )

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Pennsylvania isn’t in play.

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Actions speak louder than words. I wouldn’t believe PA was in play if it weren’t for Romney traipsing around there all weekend. It costs a lot to do that both in money and time. I don’t think Romney is stupid enough to waste either on a long shot.

Odysseus on November 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

It’s not a long shot but rather Plan B in the event that he loses Ohio. Candidates need 2 or 3 viable paths to winning the election and now that Ohio is moving back toward Obama, Romney needs a way to make up the difference in the event of an Ohio loss.

I understand why HA is trying to prop up morale, but the polls haven’t really moved in the last week and the race is among the least interesting to watch in the nation:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Could it be all the massive clusterfarks that have followed, both in NJ and in NY?

Del Dolemonte on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Man-made clusterfarks. Not cancelling the NYC Marathon until Friday was the epitome of stupidity. Turning away non-union electrical workers was criminal with temps plunging and the need growing. And yet…. nothing in the way of leadership from any Coumo, Bloomberg, or even Christie. Instead, Big Sis shows up five days later and assures the press that help is on the way. Heck of a job you’re doing there Janet!

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 2:19 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

And Team Obama is in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin… why, exactly? To get some fresh air?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Gumby is going to disappear like a morning fog on a sunny day Nov. 6th right around 10pm, never to be heard from again. Probably because he decides to play Russian roulette with a Colt 1911 when Romney utterly crushed Obama.

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 2:17 PM

We’ve long since stopped obsessing over the polls, bayam. All the morale is coming from looking at the votes.

In case you haven’t noticed, with the exception of a few states like Nevada, Team Obama is vastly underperforming their 2008 totals in early voting, and profile information indicates that they’re cannibalizing their Election Day voters. That all bodes well for Mitt Romney.

We know the money’s there for turnout now. Which means that in contrast to 2010, in which our guys underperformed public polling, they’re now likely to overperform.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Bambi shows up after the hurricane in a bomber jacket two sizes too big, gives a speech and then heads back to the campaign trail where he slouches over the podium telling voters that voting is the best revenge. (Revenge for what? Daring to put up a challenge against King Putt?) And bayam believes that this dog and pony show from the incredible shrinking president who, as the campaign winds down, oozes ever more bitterness ( so very inspiring!) will be enough to get people to vote for him? Too little and too late.

Change your clocks tonight and your president on Tuesday.

natasha333 on November 3, 2012 at 2:21 PM

In QOTD, posters referred to gumbypoked saying he got $100 a day to post here. Since he is posting his garbage all day, it works out he is a low rent, discount store clearance bin paid troll I suspected him to be all along.

bayview on November 3, 2012 at 2:21 PM

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I’m not buying that RCP’s methodology is accurate for this election cycle. Too many polls depend on 2008 turnout to predict 2012.

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 2:22 PM

It’s not a long shot but rather Plan B in the event that he loses Ohio. Candidates need 2 or 3 viable paths to winning the election and now that Ohio is moving back toward Obama, Romney needs a way to make up the difference in the event of an Ohio loss.

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 2:17 PM

.
Why doesn’t he go and “console” the good people of Staten Island?

I’m sure they’d be glad to see him “come and save the day”.

It would be a great photo-op. . : )

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:23 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Once again you stupid clown, this isn’t 2008! Get that through your thick skull.

Obama got crushed in Absentee ballots on PA by 18%!

If PA isn’t in play, then why are Dems campaigning there?

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Gumby is going to disappear like a morning fog on a sunny day Nov. 6th right around 10pm, never to be heard from again. Probably because he decides to play Russian roulette with a Colt 1911 when Romney utterly crushed Obama.

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Oh, I will be here accepting my deserved accolades for being one of the very few who wasn’t a delusional poll-basher and could see the Obama victory coming.

Do you guys know how humiliated you will be when Ohio and the election is called early for Obama?

What will you guys say?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

.
Why doesn’t he go and “console” the good people of Staten Island?

I’m sure they’d be glad to see him “come and save the day”.

It would be a great photo-op. . : )

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:23 PM

It would be to much like…shudder… WORK… o_O

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:25 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Keep humping those inflated D polls, turd.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:25 PM

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Yeah, thanks for that, Zippy but if you’re such a predictive genius, how come you aren’t ever in here to call the winners at Saratoga?

At least make yourself useful here and tell me if Notre Dame really is that good or if I want Pitt plus the points.

Gingotts on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

If PA isn’t in play, then why are Dems campaigning there?

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

If PA was in danger for the Dems, Obama would be there and not the surrogates. You don’t see Romney in MN, either. He sends surrogates.

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Oh, I will be here accepting my deserved accolades for being one of the very few who wasn’t a delusional poll-basher and could see the Obama victory coming.

Do you guys know how humiliated you will be when Ohio and the election is called early for Obama?

What will you guys say?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH……… Have fun playing Russian roulette with that 1911…

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Says the tool who said Walker would lose.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:27 PM

A man can be Jew or Christian, or he can be an Obama supporter, but he can’t legally be Jew or Christian, and be an Obama supporter … except in the usual way: one of the two with the mouth, the other with the heart. The spirit of Judaism and Christianity proclaim the survival of Israel and the meaning of that has no longer been left to guesswork, but made tremendously definite … the Jew and the Christian must fight all who would commit or enable another genocide or enslavement of the Jews or of Christians. That is the spirit and the law of Judaism and Christianity.

Well, Obama has his beliefs and actions and it is a perfectly definite set, there is no vagueness about it. He commands that the Jew and Christian bow to the Muslim at every turn they do him hurt or threaten him and his children with death. Word it as softly as you please, the spirit of Obama is the spirit of the evil shadowed specter of the Beast of Austria insidiously billowing in and building and building to ever more horrific heights. The moment there is a question about a boundary line or a building or some Muslim somewhere complaining about any matter, see Obama rise, and see him spit at the Jew and the Christian from the corner of his twisted mouth. The spirit of Obama being in its nature narcissistic and selfish — it is in the man’s line, it comes natural to him — he can fully live up to all of the teachings of Jeremiah Wright and even of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; for the spirit of Judaism and of Christianity are entirely impossible to him.

VorDaj on November 3, 2012 at 2:29 PM

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:23 PM

.
It would be to much like…shudder… WORK… o_O

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:25 PM

.
Forget the work, I believe the Secret Service would HIGHLY advise against it. It would require an army to keep the the good citizens of Staten Island from rushing him, and “beating him to a pulp.”

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:29 PM

What will you guys say?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I still say JINGLE JINGLE JINGLE. It is time for you to go.

Gingotts on November 3, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Everywhere I go today, I’m seeing “Casey = War on Coal” and “Casey = Job Killer” signs. Plenty of Smith signs, too. Haven’t seen one pro-Casey sign anywhere. Not one.

steebo77 on November 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Says the tool who said Walker would lose.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:27 PM

You’re putting a lot of faith in me getting the Walker recall wrong meaning I’m wrong about Obama winning. The Walker recall polls all showed him winning. The polls now almost all show Romney losing.

Prepare yourself for what’s about to happen.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Oh what a disgrace if such a despicable and base man, who hates America and it’s constitution and all Christians, and worships himself, should be allowed to assault a people which has the faith of omnipotent God! With what reproaches will the Lord overwhelm us if we do not promptly and fully aid those who’s conscience is being brutalized and murdered because they profess the Christian religion! Let those who have been accustomed unjustly to wage private warfare against other of the faithful now all unite and go against the tyrant in a Holy Crusade and end with total victory in November!

Let those who have been in service of this tyrant against their own brothers and sisters now fight in a proper way against this tyrant. Let those who have been wearing themselves out in both body and soul in vain attempt to appease him now labor for glorious honor against him. Behold! On the one side will be the completely destroyed tyrant, on the other the fierce and righteous protectors of the Constitution and Christianity. On the one side will be the destroyed enemy of the Lord and the Constitution, on the other, their friends who will shout at the tyrant as they destroy him on the 6th of November, “It is for the Founding Fathers!”, “It is for the Founding Fathers!, and “Deus vult! Deus vult! Deus vult!”

RasThavas on November 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Pennsylvania isn’t in play. But it’s hilarious to watch HA readers take the bait and jump all over one outlier poll, seizing it as evidence that things are going their way. Life in the bubble is GOOD!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/pa/pennsylvania_romney_vs_obama-1891.html

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

That includes Franklin Marshall which is skewed way Dem…64% union too. I seriously doubt that is any where near accurate and by the way Ras now has it as 48-48. So much for outlier. Nice try with the old info.

Deanna on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Everyone should remember that Gumby also predicted Scott Walker would lose.

Here’s what I think about PA having recently moved from the state

1. Tom Smith has a business background as the former head of a coal mine. He can beat Casey just as Republican investment banker Pat Toomey defeated Dem. Rep. Joe Sestak in 2010, despite Sestak having a military background and moderate reputation.

Remember, this Smith-Casey battle is for the seat that Rick Santorum held for 12 years. Smith is STAUNCHLY pro-life. Casey is pro-life as well, and won in a Dem wave election in 2006.

The Tea Party is strong in PA. They helped elect a Republican governor, senator and majority state legislature in 2010, another wave election.

2. As for the presidential race, Obama enthusiasm is gone. Romney is the perfect candidate to win in a blue state where the suburbs constitute large swaths of independents and swing voters. Romney’s business background will play well in the Philly suburbs. He already has the Western part of PA. I lived in South Central PA and saw a lot of support for Romney.

The GOP is currently winning the absentee ballot battle.

The economy in PA is still struggling. Corporate and individual taxes are really high in PA and the capital city, Harrisburg, recently declared bankruptcy, run into the ground by incompetent liberal hack politicians.

PA can go red this year … for the first time since 1988!

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Do you guys know how humiliated you will be when Ohio and the election is called early for Obama?

What will you guys say?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Do you know how humiliated you will be when Pennsylvania and the election is called early for Romney?

What will you say?

steebo77 on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Betting lines are set at the point where more fools will wager.

I have a US patent in the general area and have written some so I might know what I am talking about. Maybe.

IlikedAUH2O on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

I did not know that you could patent BS. I hope the books, articles, etc that you have written are not of the self-published Amazon kind. That would be embarrassing.

Time for you to take some notes and learn something about betting lines as your ignorance is showing to anyone with the minimal amount of knowledge. Betting lines (like the stock market) are typically set so that 1/2 half of the bets are on each side of the line. That way the house collects the “juice” and is guaranteed to make money. In effect, the house sets the opening line, and the independent gamblers who are wagering their own money in a “rational” market dictate the direction the odds move. These “rational” actors in a free-market economy have piled into Obama futures. Simple Fact….

I hope you learned something today. You have my permission to put that in your next book. How about titling it “Re-arranging the Deck Chairs on the Mitt-tanic: How I Was a Total Fool and Thought the Underdog was the Favorite Until Being Corrected by ZippyZ.” Forward by Chris Christie: “I’m glad I learned I was wrong before it was too late.”

ZippyZ on November 3, 2012 at 2:34 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Dude who do you think you’re fooling? You’ve posted this stick on SO MANY conservatives blogs and websites over the years. You’ve done this on Ace, FreeRepublic, National Review, and now here.

The one thing I’m anticipating is seeing your sorry ass leave.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Casey is pro-life

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Not when it counts.

steebo77 on November 3, 2012 at 2:35 PM

steebo77 on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

He’ll be sitting in a corner, sucking his thumb and weeping, thinking about how Axelrod and Messina could be wrong.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:35 PM

That includes Franklin Marshall which is skewed way Dem…64% union too. I seriously doubt that is any where near accurate and by the way Ras now has it as 48-48. So much for outlier. Nice try with the old info.

Deanna on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Rasmussen has Obama and Romney at 48-48??

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:36 PM

If PA was in danger for the Dems, Obama would be there and not the surrogates. You don’t see Romney in MN, either. He sends surrogates.

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Really? A candidate himself going there means the state’s in danger?

So I guess Obama going to Wisconsin three times before the election is just a head-fake, right smart guy?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:36 PM

In PA?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:36 PM

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