Virtual tie in PA Senate race

posted at 1:01 pm on November 3, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

According to a new poll from Susquehanna Polling and Research, conducted for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, the Senate seat considered safe for much of this election has now become a toss-up.  Republican challenger Tom Smith has gained four points in a month to come within a point of Democratic incumbent Robert Casey, in a state where Mitt Romney has begun to focus on his final campaign drive:

Republican U.S. Senate nominee Tom Smith narrowed the race against Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr., pulling nearly even in a Tribune-Review poll.

Casey polled 46 percent to Smith’s 45 percent among likely voters, with 8 percent undecided, according to the survey by Susquehanna Polling & Research in Harrisburg.

Those figures show stagnation for Casey but a 4-point gain for Smith since a Trib-commissioned poll Sept. 12.

The more recent poll of 800 people from Oct. 29-31 has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

The story doesn’t include the sample, but the partisan split is D+6 at 44/38/18, as I recall from my interview with Jim Lee of Susquehanna.  The last Franklin & Marshall poll, which Casey’s camp cites as a rebuttal to Susquehanna, had a D+13 sample of 50/37/13 and gave Casey an 11-point lead.  Lee feels this kind of split widely oversamples Democrats in relation to turnout, and on the basis of history, he’s obviously right.  The turnout in Pennsylvania in 2008 was 44/37/18, almost identical to what Lee uses in his weighting, and arguably a high-water mark that Democrats aren’t likely to reach four years later.  The difference between the two polls is almost entirely found within that difference in party split.

That brings me to my next point.  The Franklin & Marshall poll that showed Casey 11 points up in a D+13 sample also had Barack Obama only four points ahead of Mitt Romney, 48/44.  If there’s a a ten-point difference between the two polls in the Senate race, what might be happening in the presidential race?  We will find out tomorrow, as Susquehanna and the PTR has the poll results in the presidential race coming tomorrow.  I’d bet we’ll see why Mitt Romney will make one last big push in the Keystone State, and why Obama and his campaign are dumping a fortune into Pennsylvania at the last minute.

 


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If PA was in danger for the Dems, Obama would be there and not the surrogates. You don’t see Romney in MN, either. He sends surrogates.

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

Really? A candidate himself going there means the state’s in danger?

So I guess Obama going to Wisconsin three times before the election is just a head-fake, right smart guy?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Obama’s not taking any new Red states this time, so all he can do is protect his own. Nevada and WI are the only other paths Romney has, so Obama is going there, as well as OH which is pretty much the whole election.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:38 PM

If PA isn’t in play, then why are Dems campaigning there?

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

.
If PA was in danger for the Dems, Obama would be there and not the surrogates. You don’t see Romney in MN, either. He sends surrogates.

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

.
Yep gum’poke’, I believe you have it it nailed. But it’s ok, since I’ve been getting callouses on my emotions in anticipation of all the gloating you’re gonna be doing. In fact I’m ready right now, so go for it! Do your worst. Why wait for the official tally?
You can get a “jump” on it, just like “Dewey Defeats Truman” and all.
Oh, wait . . . . . that’s exactly what you have been doing, isn’t it?

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Do you guys know how humiliated you will be when Ohio and the election is called early for Obama?

What will you guys say?

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Do you know how humiliated you will be when Pennsylvania and the election is called early for Romney?

What will you say?

steebo77 on November 3, 2012 at 2:33 PM

I would say I was 100% wrong and take the abuse I would deserve.

Or I will say I Told You So and call out all the idiots who were so incredibly wrong and know nothing of political realities.

No middle ground here. Some will be geniuses and others will be idiots.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Gumby is going to disappear like a morning fog on a sunny day Nov. 6th right around 10pm, never to be heard from again. Probably because he decides to play Russian roulette with a Colt 1911 when Romney utterly crushed Obama.

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

lol.. now THAT is a good one.. if you understand the mechanics of the scenario…

RockyJ. on November 3, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Obama’s not taking any new Red states this time, so all he can do is protect his own. Nevada and WI are the only other paths Romney has, so Obama is going there, as well as OH which is pretty much the whole election.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Keep barking.

Obama has pretty much lost Iowa, and he’s fighting for his political life in PA and WI. He hasn’t contested Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia for pretty much the past month.

Ohio is not in the bag for Obama, no matter how much you wish it to be so. Because if Axelrod diverted some of your paycheck to the DNC turnout operation, maybe the Obama team wouldn’t be cratering in the early vote counts in the big cities.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Obama has pretty much lost Iowa,

According to what polls?

The early voting advantage is, again, strongly Obama, and it would take a massive election day victory for Romney to make up the difference.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:44 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Prove it or shut up.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:45 PM

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:34 PM

He’s (she or it) not going to leave — how else will he get paid? This is his job! He and zippy get paid to do this! If they don’t for the life of me I have no idea why they bother. Why spend time on conservative sites getting people irritated? Arrogance? Inflated self-importance? Is this really accomplishing anything? Typical left-leaning attitude; make everyone miserable (if you can) so all will be “equal.”

A lot of people despise these idiots — so what have they accomplished.

I think Romney will win — others smarter than these idiots do too — maybe we are wrong — I just know gummy and zippy are pathetic people who enjoy the pain of others. Sick.

rebuzz on November 3, 2012 at 2:45 PM

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:20 PM

lol.. now THAT is a good one.. if you understand the mechanics of the scenario…

RockyJ. on November 3, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Wink wink, nod nod, say no more… o_O

SWalker on November 3, 2012 at 2:48 PM

The early voting advantage is, again, strongly Obama, and it would take a massive election day victory for Romney to make up the difference.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Democrats are supposed to win the early votes, dopey. That’s the time when they get the union bosses and such to crack the whip and bring out the Democrat slave classes to vote. But he’s way off from 2008, and he didn’t win Iowa by a hell of a lot in 2008. He’s in trouble.

Unless, of course, you’re going by public polling, which directly contradicts the SecState’s office by double-counting the number of early voters. So there’s that. I mean, it’s dead wrong, of course, but it’s data. So Papa Silver should be proud of you.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 2:51 PM

In Iowa, Democrats at early voting stations are running 15,000 behind 2008. In combined early/absentee, Democrats still lead as they have every cycle since early voting began there, but Republicans have also set records this time.

In 2008, the overall margin in pre-voting was D+18, this year it is +12. This puts the state within striking distance for Romney.

As with the Wisconsin recall, gumby has repeatedly shown no particular skill or accuracy, rather just lies and cherry-picking. Thankfully, in a couple more days the troll will disappear forever.

Adjoran on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

We’re not as naive as you think. You just admitted that polls showed Walker ahead last June and yet you still predicted he would lose.

You know what that means?

You’re a partisan hack without a shred of credibility.

If you take away the B.S. D+9 polls that even YOU admit are ridiculous, Romney is within the margin of error in Ohio. Anyone with eyes can see the enthusiastic crowds for Romney and the lack of enthusiasm for Obama.

Anyone who can read knows that Obama does not have the same early voting edge that he did in 2008. Even John King says Romney is “well-positioned” for a win in Ohio.

Besides that … 2012 has all the makings of a WAVE election cycle. The same Tea Party that swept Republicans to 5000 net gains across the country two years ago is going to turn out in droves to defeat Obama.

Show me the national poll where Obama is above 50% in a reasonable sample. He is polling at an average of 47-48% — that is NOT good for an incumbent.

Show us an incumbent who has ever been re-elected while earning a smaller portion of the vote than their first election.

You’re calling us naive is simply a cover-up for your partisan bias.

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Prove it or shut up.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 2:45 PM

Just read what Adrian Gray says on Twitter about the IA early voting. He’s following the totals and frequently updates. His benchmark was a 60,000 advantage for Obama meant Romney had a chance to make up the difference on election day. Currently the margin is 63,000.

You are ignorant of political reality.

The longer I’m here, the more I’m astounded just how much wishful thinking goes on with no real-world evidence to back up your beliefs. I realize all political blogs are bubbles, but your guys are really insulated from reality at times.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

Romney is within the margin of error in Ohio. Anyone with eyes can see the enthusiastic crowds for Romney and the lack of enthusiasm for Obama.

That’s true.

But Kerry was drawing bigger crowds in 04 than President Bush was, too. And he seemed to have more energy/enthusiasm on his side. He still lost by 2 pts, which is probably where this election will shake out in the end.

Had the hurricane not happened, I don’t know who would have won.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:56 PM

I would say I was 100% wrong and take the abuse I would deserve.

Or I will say I Told You So and call out all the idiots who were so incredibly wrong and know nothing of political realities.

No middle ground here. Some will be geniuses and others will be idiots.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:41 PM

No matter what happens, you have been, continue to be, and will still be an idiot come Tuesday.

And I would hope that Ed bans you the second Romney is declared the winner at around 11 p.m. on Tuesday after PA is called for Romney (which will show how clueless you are because you still cant do basic math and figure out that Obama needs Ohio a lot more than Romney because Romney has basically won FL, VA, NC and CO), because otherwise, you will just start babbling about some idiotic PPP poll that says they have already polled the 2016 election and Romney is losing to Clinton by 16, and will respond with the predicable “ATOM BOMB. GAME OVER. LOL.”

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 2:57 PM

O can’t even attract more than 200 people for a Stevie Wonder concert in Cleveland.

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/11/few_know_about_stevie_wonder_a.html#incart_river

Stick a fork in him. Obama is toast.

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 2:58 PM

So many people here are so politically naive.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:26 PM

No, not at all. We see and know exactly what you are and why you are here.

The only question is why you are doing it? Nobody here believes you, you have no credibility; you lost that with your predictions that Scott Walker was toast. Yet you persist. Why? It’s been said insanity is doing the same thing over and expecting different results. I guess the same applies to idiocy.

So, for amusement, tell us again how Jugears is winning in Florida. Or have you now ceded that state to Romney?

AZfederalist on November 3, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Besides that … 2012 has all the makings of a WAVE election cycle. The same Tea Party that swept Republicans to 5000 net gains across the country two years ago is going to turn out in droves to defeat Obama.

Show me the national poll where Obama is above 50% in a reasonable sample. He is polling at an average of 47-48% — that is NOT good for an incumbent.

Show us an incumbent who has ever been re-elected while earning a smaller portion of the vote than their first election.

Do you know that the Tea Party Network, or whatever they’re called, endorsed “none of the above?” And there aren’t enough members to influence a Presidential election. An off-year Senate or House race, sure, but not with this turnout.

Your other points are good ones, and I’ve said before I think there is a possibility of Romney winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:01 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

I’m ignorant of political reality? YOU were the one who was pounding his chest of high early voting in OH, per the polls. Yet if you even bothered to look at the SoS’s site, you’d see the reality.

You fool.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 3:01 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Are you seriously puffing that stupid joke of a site? They just started this week, and are being torn apart on Twitter as hacks.

Sorry to break it to you, but they represent nothing.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 3:02 PM

That’s true.

But Kerry was drawing bigger crowds in 04 than President Bush was, too. And he seemed to have more energy/enthusiasm on his side. He still lost by 2 pts, which is probably where this election will shake out in the end.

Had the hurricane not happened, I don’t know who would have won.

My. Brain. Hurts!

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:56 PM

FIFY!

22044 on November 3, 2012 at 3:03 PM

So, for amusement, tell us again how Jugears is winning in Florida. Or have you now ceded that state to Romney?

AZfederalist on November 3, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Good grief, I’ve said all along if Romney wins a battleground state, it will be Florida. He has a small shot at VA and no shot at OH and no shot at the EC.

But I do understand if you are relegated to celebrating a victory in FL while the rest of the battleground stays Blue.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:04 PM

O can’t even attract more than 200 people for a Stevie Wonder concert in Cleveland.

http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2012/11/few_know_about_stevie_wonder_a.html#incart_river

Stick a fork in him. Obama is toast.

Nicole Coulter on November 3, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Dont worry, PPP will poll the DailyKos site, pretend the poll is 41/32/27 and find Obama up by 4, and Nate Silver will say this is proof of Obama momentum.

Anyone who looks at things honestly sees several things:

1. Obama won in 2008 by 260k votes.
2. Through less Democrat votes and more Republican votes from 4 years ago, Obama has lost ~250k votes.
3. 2008 was as bad a turnout for Republicans.
4. Republicans have the enthusiasm gap.
5. Democrat enthusiasm is down.
6. See crowd sizes for proof of 4 and 5.

Yet, we should believe that Romney will not win by at least 90k votes because Republicans (who had 100k more votes than Democrats on election day in 2008) will somehow do worse than in 2008?

Again folks, this is simple math. And the math doesn’t add up for Obama or any of the liberal pollsters and their “polls.”

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:06 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Dream on, turd.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 3:06 PM

The early voting advantage is, again, strongly Obama, and it would take a massive election day victory for Romney to make up the difference.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Early voting statistics are bullsh!t. You have no idea how many democrats actually cast their votes for Romney and vice versa. Quit trying to hang your hat on an unknown that won’t be known until the evening of November 6th.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:07 PM

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:07 PM

That’s all this loser has.

wargamer6 on November 3, 2012 at 3:08 PM

I’m ignorant of political reality? YOU were the one who was pounding his chest of high early voting in OH, per the polls. Yet if you even bothered to look at the SoS’s site, you’d see the reality.

Romney is getting destroyed in OH early voting. Does it make him likely to win the state by almost 5%, which was the margin vs McCain? No, it doesn’t. But it does make it likely he’ll win by 1-2 pts, which is what I’ve predicted all along.

Do you realize how freaking big a deal it will be if all the swing state polls have been wrong? There would have had to be some massive conspiracy to slant the polls to such an extent.

I just don’t believe they’re all wrong.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Planet Earth for Iowa:

Mellman 11/1 46.0 44.0 Obama +2.0
Gravis Marketing 11/1 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
CallFire 10/31 50.0 47.0 Obama +3.0
We Ask America 10/30 48.8 47.3 Obama +1.5
PPP 10/30 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 10/30 48.0 49.0 Romney +1.0

Now go look at PA. 12 latest polls. Romney had the lead in one, and a tie in another. Obama leads in the other 10.

Anyone who would like to make this an interesting wager, find me on Twitter.

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:09 PM

These just titles from Drudge, it will make claymation’s head blow up:

30,000 turn out in Ohio for Romney

Obama plays for just 2,800

Cleveland 2008: 80,000; Cleveland 2012: 4,000.

Just 200 show up for Stevie Wonder event for Barack Obama (who is Stevie Wonder anyways)

Heh, mometum, baby :)…

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Early voting statistics are bullsh!t. You have no idea how many democrats actually cast their votes for Romney and vice versa. Quit trying to hang your hat on an unknown that won’t be known until the evening of November 6th.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:07 PM

You can easily look at the polls and figure out roughly what that total might be. There will be no gigantic surprises with those subset numbers. Neither side seems to be stealing much from the other in crossover support.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Good grief, I’ve said all along if Romney wins a battleground state, it will be Florida. He has a small shot at VA and no shot at OH and no shot at the EC.

But I do understand if you are relegated to celebrating a victory in FL while the rest of the battleground stays Blue.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Romney has already basically won FL and VA. If small shot means 99%, then fine.

And if no shot means about a 75% shot based on what I wrote above, than I guess he has no shot in Ohio.

And again, you cannot refute anything I said above (or what Nicole Coulter wrote yesterday, which I forgot to comment about, but which was an excellent post), and show how the math adds up to Obama winning.

If you are so confident that Romney is losing Ohio, show us how using simple math.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:11 PM

BTW, I noticed someone posted the RCP list of Iowa polls. If I was an Obama supporter, I would do the exact same thing, but it’s to depressing to even look at.

And someone mentioned the totals of Obama’s rallies. I agree there is not a whole lot of energy there and his campaign has turned into a bare knuckles, harsh, unattractive affair. But it seems to be working, unless there is this gigantic poll conspiracy going on.

To be fair, I think the 4,000 total was capacity for that venue. Romney only drew 2,000 this morning in NH, btw.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Neither side seems to be stealing much from the other in crossover support.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Okay, now how much is Obama cannibalizing election day voters to turn them out early and keep the numbers higher? Can you tell me that or not?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Romney is getting destroyed in OH early voting. Does it make him likely to win the state by almost 5%, which was the margin vs McCain? No, it doesn’t. But it does make it likely he’ll win by 1-2 pts, which is what I’ve predicted all along.

Do you realize how freaking big a deal it will be if all the swing state polls

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Obama’s early voting in OH is a disaster, Politico said that much. He maxed out on potential Dem voters that he can count on and they are ahead by too small margins in early voting, and will have ery few left to vote for O on election day. and that’s when the wave of republican enthusiasm will hit them, that will erase the tiny advantage the dems have now in early voting, there. cuyahoga county a big dissappointmenr for obama so far, the dem registration in that county tremendously low. Nov 6, Obama is done.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports
Early voting wrap in Nevada has ominous numbers for Romney. My analysis: http://ralstonreports.com/blog/democrats-end-71000-voter-lead-clark-near-dead-heat-washoe#.UJVZ0Gntg9Q

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:20 PM

You can easily look at the polls and figure out roughly what that total might be. There will be no gigantic surprises with those subset numbers. Neither side seems to be stealing much from the other in crossover support.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:11 PM

No you can’t, so just shut and sit down. No one will know how those early votes were cast until the polls close and the votes are counted.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:21 PM

Okay, now how much is Obama cannibalizing election day voters to turn them out early and keep the numbers higher? Can you tell me that or not?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 3:17 PM

Yup. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97ROmNlhPn0

GOPRanknFile on November 3, 2012 at 3:23 PM

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:09 PM

You know how many of those pollsters you cited were in the top 10 for accuracy in 2008?

One. Rasmussen. Which was the most accurate. All the others didn’t even make the list. And Has anybody but you even heard of CallFire, which sounds like an emergency-response hotline rather than a polling company?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 3:24 PM

If you are so confident that Romney is losing Ohio, show us how using simple math.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:11 PM

Claymation does ‘t have any math to support his innanities, he confessed that much yesterday on a thread apparently. He said that he is paid 100 usd to come and post here, and that is probably email fed to him in the form of talking points by his masters, whoever they are.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Just 200 show up for Stevie Wonder event for Barack Obama (who is Stevie Wonder anyways)

Heh, mometum, baby :)…

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Less than 200 hundred showed up and the event started at 9:30. I guess the Obot’s were too hungover to get up or just don’t care this go around.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Anyone who would like to make this an interesting wager, find me on Twitter.

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:09 PM

More likely to find you out looting on Wednesday.

Cheerio-o

tom daschle concerned on November 3, 2012 at 3:26 PM

No you can’t, so just shut and sit down. No one will know how those early votes were cast until the polls close and the votes are counted.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:21 PM

It’s so sad you can’t handle reality.

How do you like the reality of those Nevada numbers?

Obama is destroying Romney in early voting there and in OH and IA.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:26 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:20 PM

I don’t think anyone has made the argument that Nevada is in play, gumball. Barone thinks it’s blue and so does pretty much everyone else. The state’s full of nonwhites, and the Obama campaign decided to make this election a race war, which is why they’re suddenly fighting like hell to keep Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Keep on keepin’ on, though. You have to bank at least fifty more spam posts here and elsewhere before you can go home for the day.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Claymation does ‘t have any math to support his innanities, he confessed that much yesterday on a thread apparently. He said that he is paid 100 usd to come and post here, and that is probably email fed to him in the form of talking points by his masters, whoever they are.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:24 PM

I know he cant show how the math works. When he is asked a tough question, he fillibusters or ignores it.

I guarantee you that no liberal can answer that question, including Nate Silver. Because the Math doesn’t work.

If you are down 250k votes in early voting, when you won by 260k in 2008, that means at most you have a 10k lead (from the 2008 numbers) to keep. Then even assuming the turnout on Election Day is at 2008 levels, Republicans win by 100k on Election Day, and by 90k total.

Now, even if its worse than in 2008 for Republicans, and the gap is 50k on election day, Romney still wins by 40k.

However, if the gap is roughly even, Romney wins by around 200k – 225k on election day, and wins by between 190k and 215k votes.

Considering 5.2 million votes in 2008 in Ohio, and lets say around 5.5 vote this year, based on simple math, Romney should win 51.8 to 48.2.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Just 200 show up for Stevie Wonder event for Barack Obama (who is Stevie Wonder anyways)

Heh, mometum, baby :)…

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Less than 200 hundred showed up and the event started at 9:30. I guess the Obot’s were too hungover to get up or just don’t care this go around.

JPeterman on November 3, 2012 at 3:25 PM

I’d go with the latter, it’s obvious if you look at the Obama shrinking crowds, nada enthusiasm. As for that particular event, sure, 9:30 am not the ideal hour (that shows also how clueless the organizers are), but I bet you that 4 years ago they would have gotten out of their way to make sure they were present at that event in great numbers :)…

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:33 PM

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I know, I read those figures times and again, Barone himself made te exactly same argument when he put Ohio into Romney’s column.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:37 PM

KingGold, you sound confident. Awesome.

Let’s make it interesting. I need a new plasma.

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Obama is destroying Romney in early voting there and in OH and IA.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 3:26 PM

That’s what liars do, lie, claymation., especially when they are paid to do it. Dems are cannibalizing the Dem vote in OH, that’s all there is about it. his early voting advantage is minimal and it won’t hold in the face of the tsunami of republican enthusiasm on election day. Regardless of how many non-citizen Somalis you are driving to te polls, obunga is done.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Does anybody knos in which thread of yesterday he confessed that he is paid 100 dollars to come here? I wonder if this is a violatn of the TOS of this site and if it is a bannable offence.

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:46 PM

OH polling – Planet Earth

Ipsos (online) 11/2 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist 11/1 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0
CNN/Opinion Research * 11/1 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
We Ask America 11/1 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
Ipsos (online) 11/1 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
Wenzel Strategies 10/31 46.0 49.0 Romney +3.0
Ipsos (online) 10/31 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
PPP 10/30 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
U. of Cinc./Ohio Poll * 10/30 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Grove 10/29 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA 10/29 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
New York Times/Quinnipiac 10/28 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 10/28 48.0 50.0 Romney +2.0
PPP 10/28 51.0 47.0 Obama +4.0

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Does anybody know,that is..

jimver on November 3, 2012 at 3:46 PM

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Unlike Nate Silver and the cretins who swear by InTrade, I have no intention of betting on this election.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Ipsos (online) 11/2 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
NBC/Marist 11/1 51.0 45.0 Obama +6.0
CNN/Opinion Research * 11/1 47.0 44.0 Obama +3.0
We Ask America 11/1 50.2 45.8 Obama +4.4
Ipsos (online) 11/1 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
Wenzel Strategies 10/31 46.0 49.0 Romney +3.0
Ipsos (online) 10/31 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
PPP 10/30 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
U. of Cinc./Ohio Poll * 10/30 48.0 46.0 Obama +2.0
Grove 10/29 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
SurveyUSA 10/29 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
New York Times/Quinnipiac 10/28 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Rasmussen 10/28 48.0 50.0 Romney +2.0
PPP 10/28 51.0 47.0 Obama +4.0

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Showing 14 polls where maybe 3 (I have no clue what Grove is, so I say 3) dont have a liberal agenda does not dispute math.

The fact that you cant even open your eyes and see that most of those “pollsters” are just propaganda wings for the DNC says more about you than the polls.

Also, ask Senator Sharron Angle what she thinks of polls.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 3:56 PM

The real unknown is how many of those registered voters in Western Pennsylvania are union workers voting for Romney.

wukong on November 3, 2012 at 4:19 PM

…Crap!…I go away for a while…and EVERY one of you…is gumming pokey!…WTF?

KOOLAID2 on November 3, 2012 at 4:45 PM

The real unknown is how many of those registered voters in Western Pennsylvania are union workers voting for Romney.

wukong on November 3, 2012 at 4:19 PM

At the Ryan event today I was in line with a union guy from York. More disturbingly for Obama, another couple from Montgomery County who voted for Obama and attended his rallies in 2008. They say the the yeard sign race is running 50/50 in their neighborhood where there were exactly zero McCain signs last time.

forest on November 3, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Part of the problem with using this race as some sorry of indicator is the fact Casey has the personality of a dead fish and has never authored a single bill.He’s useless.

Also remember that this is Rick Santorum’s old seat and him winning before didn’t stop PA for voting for Gore

LordDaMan on November 3, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Polls polls polls. Not exactly worthless. More valuable in the trends they mark. And they do give lazy journalists something to type about. So there’s that. Otherwise they might inadvertantly, y’know, write news. Like the one about Americans abandoned and murdered in Libya through an Obama administration failure so grotesque the full magnitude may take years to expose. And what has been exposed so far has pushed through and around the pathetic media cocoon more or less on its own. Downside of the inevitable revelations though — including The Big One…Was it intentional? — is that if Obama does win and (aided by a Smith win) the pressure to impeach is so great that he does resign….gulp, President Biden!

Anyway, as for polls, I don’t know that any of them take into account The Bradley Effect. This is a polling third-rail but it is real. Human nature. Something the Left discounts. Because they don’t think humans should have a nature beyond what they can mold and warp. The effect will be more severe this time around.

My own personal poll of me and two hereditary, habitual Democrat coworkers has a small sample. Mm hm. You know a few of the type, I’m sure. They work hard, have families, pay too much in taxes and in all other ways live a conservative life. Yet they vote like takers: out of habit, loyalty to parents and the persistent illusion that their abominable party is still the party of Truman and JFK. I’ve been working on these two for months. In my last poll, taken Friday, one has now committed to Romney and the other has swung from strongly leaning Obama to SITTING OUT! This poll of three PA definite voters includes me, yes, and I still count the out-sitter because he considers that his vote. He’s a dyed-in-the-wool fat-cat hater. One of those “It’s a racket!” guys. I keep telling him that he should prefer a rich guy as president. No incentive to loot the treasury like Barack Big Dinner, Barack Lavish Vacation, Barack When’s-My-Tee-Time? Obama has done for himself and his cronies. He’s very health care-centered. The plan was hammered this year and will be worse next year. I may have some leverage there. And he’s for sure a Bradley Effect sufferer. ’nuff said.

So my most recent polling was on Friday and the score was Romney 2, Obama 0, one tie. Anecdotal yes, but, no margin of error.

And on Monday I hope they’re ready. They’re gonna get the Full Benghazi. Make it 3-0.

curved space on November 3, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Rasmussen has Ohio as a tie MOE 4.0; gumbo don’t know, no one knows . . . but where Ohio goes determines the win/loss.

gumbo can engage in his self-serving ego trip all the way up to the election — he’s still an idiot.

rebuzz on November 3, 2012 at 5:30 PM

PA had better get rid of this passive loser, Robert Casey Jr., who rode into office based on his dad’s reputation and has been running a dishonest campaign re using our nation’s energy resources. Any Pennsylvanian who votes for Casey is assuring a loss of revenue and a loss of jobs for the state and the nation.

onlineanalyst on November 3, 2012 at 5:33 PM

PA had better get rid of this passive loser, Robert Casey Jr., who rode into office based on his dad’s reputation and has been running a dishonest campaign re using our nation’s energy resources. Any Pennsylvanian who votes for Casey is assuring a loss of revenue and a loss of jobs for the state and the nation.

onlineanalyst on November 3, 2012 at 5:33 PM

+100 THIS ^^^^

I see CASEY=WAR ON COAL signs everywhere in pretty heavily populated areas here in the western half of PA.

A couple weeks ago, I wrote here that someone in our town made their own hand-painted Obama signs. There weren’t very many, maybe about five total, placed at a few intersections and on-ramps. One such sign that I passed at one on-ramp the other day had been painted over with the word “LIER [sic]” in silver spray paint. I’m not sure, but it might be a misdemeanor if a person defaces or steals election signs, but I doubt the person who defaced the hand-painted sign is going to be held liable.

PatriotGal2257 on November 3, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Adjoran on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

In Pottawattamie County, Iowa, the County Auditor adjusted their forecast to 75% turnout. That’s a record here.

I was out again precinct walking and I’m telling you there is hardly any interest in O here.

Unless the Dems do a bunch of cheating, Romney will pull it out due to him being tied and the tiebreaker will the be undecideds that vote more for Romney.

We could be looking at a solid Romney 300+ electoral win fueled by winning independents and high turnout plus more Catholics switching to Romney this round do to bishops finally getting up off their *sses and communicating the need for religious freedom to the parishionaers.

KirknBurker on November 3, 2012 at 6:55 PM

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