The state of the Senate race

posted at 8:31 am on November 3, 2012 by Jazz Shaw

We’re coming down to the wire in the 2012 election, and being a presidential year most eyes are trained on the race to the finish between Mitt Romney and President Obama. But control of both chambers in the legislative branch are on the line as well, and as we all know, Congress can do a lot more (or a lot less) in terms of effecting change than the chief executive. Last night, The Ish took a look at the state of the House races and didn’t see much of a change on the horizon. That’s not terribly surprising, given how each state gerrymanders their districts. But the Senate runs on a harder to bump, state by state basis and has some potential volatility built in. Today we’ll take a quick look at what’s coming up there. (Don’t take this as “final predictions” which we’ll be doing closer to Tuesday.)

Of the 100 seats in the Senate, there are less than a dozen that we really need to bother looking at. The GOP is sitting on 42 which are either not up for reelection or so safe that it’s not worth discussing. The Democrats have 44 in those same categories. (And I’m sorry to say to my fellow New Yorkers, our seat in this mix is in that category. It’s just not on the table.) For the record, that Democrat number includes Sanders and Lieberman, who are technically independent, but caucus with the Dems. It also includes Angus King in Maine, who will almost without a doubt follow suit and may soon make some of you pine for the days of Olympia Snowe, who was successfully hounded out of the running.

Still technically in the “leaner” category, but quickly sailing over the event horizon of reasonable chances are three others:

Nebraska: This one should go to Deb Fischer, bringing the Republican “comfortable” total to 43, but we’ll pretend for now that Bob Kerry still has a chance.

Florida: I know people are still holding out hope for Connie Mack, but Bill Nelson holds varying leads in every poll you can find not conducted exclusively among people with the surname of Mack. But much like the presidential numbers, these shift on a daily basis. The Democrats could still take a beating up and down the ticket if the turnout is seriously large.

Pennsylvania: Tom Smith has run a great race, but even Rasmussen has him losing to Bob Casey, bringing the Donkey Party to a likely buffer of 46. This leaves us with a rather shockingly juicy group of eleven seats which may still be in contention, some more than others.

THE FINALISTS (In alphabetical order for lack of any other ranking)

Arizona: This one won’t be a blowout, but Jeff Flake is still up outside the margins in Rasmussen’s last numbers and he should sneak in over the finish line.

Connecticut: This is Linda McMahon’s second bite at the apple, but every late poll has Chris Murphy looking like he’ll send her packing in back to back tries.

Indiana: One of the media’s favorite races. I haven’t spoken to a single non-invested party who thinks this would even have been a race if Lugar was running, but Richard Mourdock managed to trip over his own shoelaces with the finish line in site and Ras has Joe Donnelly up by a slim margin in the final week. It could still go either way, though, and this one is definitely too close to call.

Massachusetts: The race most likely to start a flame war on any blog, Scott Brown became a GOP Rock Star of sorts when he seized a seat in Taxachusetts. But despite Elizabeth Warren’s best efforts to take herself out of the race repeatedly, Obama has some long coattails in the Kennedy’s home town and most polling outlets weren’t holding out much hope for Brown. But just this weekend we saw another shift, and incumbency always carries a certain advantage. Brown may still hold on to this one.

Missouri: Another odds on favorite to fan flame wars, Todd Akin managed to take one of the most likely GOP pickup seats and put it back in play. Rasmussen currently has Claire McCaskill up by nearly double digits, and not one other outlet shows a lead for Akin with three days to go.

Montana: I have no idea why I don’t see this race on the morning talk shows more often. Jon Tester is being challenged by Republican Denny Rehberg and there’s no use linking any single poll on the contest. Everyone has it as pretty much a fifty fifty shot. That’s a GOP pickup waiting to happen if you can turn out a couple hundred extra people in a few precincts.

Nevada: Much like Arizona, I’m not sure if this should be a toss-up race. Even NBC gives Dean Heller a pretty good shot at winning and the rest of the pollsters follow suit. He should deny Shelley Berkley’s bid unless something goes seriously amiss.

North Dakota: Republican Rick Berg should nail this one down pretty early on Tuesday night and send Heidi Heitkamp looking for other employment.

Ohio: Another high strung, tight wire act here. But the consensus of pollsters has Sherrod Brown leading Josh Mandel outside the margins. Sorry, sports fans, but Josh has some tough sledding to pull this one out.

Virginia: George Allen has overcome some early polling deficits and is now in a nail biter with Tim Kaine. It’s not a given by any means, but the momentum seems to be on Allen’s side coming into the home stretch.

Wisconsin: This is shaping up to be another incredibly close one, like most in Wisconsin. Tammy Baldwin (D) and Tommy Thompson (R) have been trading the lead back and forth for a while. This is another one that may just come down to coat tails.

All in all, there is the possibility of a wave in either direction with this many close races. But looking at the trends this week, it may turn out to be something of a split much like the House races. There’s really only three races where I would bet large on the Republicans right now and a couple where I’d wager on the Democrats. This doesn’t stack up like a high chance of the GOP retaking the Senate, but there’s plenty of reason to break out the popcorn on Tuesday.


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Well, that’s a depressing read.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 8:37 AM

What could have been–MO.+IN.=**facepalm**

hillsoftx on November 3, 2012 at 8:38 AM

I’ll be voting Goode/Allen on Tuesday. Living in Virginia’s been interesting. I have Obama who runs ads condemning George W. Bush, and Tim Kaine (Allen’s opponent) running ads on how he got along great with George W. Bush. Mixed messaging from the Dems!

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:39 AM

After Tuesday, it is my sincerest hope Todd Akin is never allowed to run for public office, ever again.

Ever!

pilamaye on November 3, 2012 at 8:40 AM

there is the possibility of a wave in either direction with this many close races

jazz jazz jazz. affiliation now R+3 (net change 14 points since 08), and theres a possibility in EITHER direction? nah, come on. there is a wave possibility, actually a liklihood and it aint colored blue.

t8stlikchkn on November 3, 2012 at 8:40 AM

Jazz,

Not very well written for those of us without complete knowledge of the parties involved.

please go back and at least label the party on each outcome?

the drill sgt on November 3, 2012 at 8:40 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

If Romney wins in Ohio, so will Mandel.

MTF on November 3, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Tammy Baldwin is going to be the United States first openly gay or lesbian senator (key word being “openly” Lindsay Graham fans). That’s pretty cool.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Haven’t given up on unseating Claire …. Akin came off looking like a stooge, so you are probably right …. It is a long Shot but Romney is up in Missouri by 10 or more, hopefully that will help.

JTKBIZ on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

note, there are 2 seats that are lost on in serious risk because of extreme social con positions and helped dems advance in their “war on women” narrative.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Oh yeah I agree. There should be a whole slew of woman’s issues that males should not have a right to voice their opinion about. As a matter of fact, being pro-life should be illegal in the GOP. As a matter of fact, you should only be allowed to be a male GOP member if you know someone who’s had an abortion.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 8:48 AM

This is the dark side of the 2012 election. If Romney wins, but the Democrats hold on to the senate, then Romney won’t be able to accomplish much. There will be a feeling of uplift in November, followed by a feeling that it was a hollow victory. Yes, the president can do many things without Congress fully backing him, but not the most important things.

Dextrous on November 3, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Tammy Baldwin is going to be the United States first openly gay or lesbian senator (key word being “openly” Lindsay Graham fans). That’s pretty cool.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Basing votes on skin, gender, or lifestyle is a mistake.

rob verdi on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

What could have been–MO.+IN.=**facepalm**

hillsoftx on November 3, 2012 at 8:38 AM

Akin’s idiocy was bad enough, but Mourdock should have known better.

That said, if I were a voter in either state, I’d still vote for Akin or Mourdock and, if either were to win, I’d feign surprise to opponents while snickering inside. Heck, I’m not enthusiastic about Josh Mandel–I would have loved to have had another Portman to run against Brown–but I loathe Brown, who’s unbelievably liberal, maniacally pro-union, and pretty stupid to boot.

FWIW: in the future, pro-life GOP candidates should be required to practice their abortion positions or they should be disqualified from running.

BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Haven’t given up on unseating Claire …. Akin came off looking like a stooge, so you are probably right …. It is a long Shot but Romney is up in Missouri by 10 or more, hopefully that will help.

JTKBIZ on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

xtreme social conservatism is unecessary and self defeating. romney winning in Missouri while akin loses proves this!

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

This is the dark side of the 2012 election. If Romney wins, but the Democrats hold on to the senate, then Romney won’t be able to accomplish much. There will be a feeling of uplift in November, followed by a feeling that it was a hollow victory. Yes, the president can do many things without Congress fully backing him, but not the most important things.

Dextrous on November 3, 2012 at 8:48 AM

What makes you think Romney couldn’t act like Obama?

rob verdi on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

And those two seats will likely cost us the ability to repeal Obamacare. No Senate control = no repeal.

TxAnn56 on November 3, 2012 at 8:50 AM

I don’t want to hold out false hope but I keep remembering how badly off the polling was in WI, and praying for a large, large conservative turnout. I’m a big fan of early voting, having lost out a few years back when an out-of-state family member had a last-minute emergency, but I know a lot of conservatives who prefer to vote on election day.

Eren on November 3, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Of the 100 seats in the Senate, there are less than a dozen that we really need to bother looking at.

 
Stupid wingnuts. No one cares about the 17th Amendment.

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I’ll be voting Goode/Allen on Tuesday. Living in Virginia’s been interesting. I have Obama who runs ads condemning George W. Bush, and Tim Kaine (Allen’s opponent) running ads on how he got along great with George W. Bush. Mixed messaging from the Dems!

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:39 AM</blockquote]

You might want to rethink Goode. He was beaten by a radical leftist newcomer in a district that should go Republican, because he thought he had it in the bag and didn't work hard enough. He has been a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, and a loser.

huckleberryfriend on November 3, 2012 at 8:52 AM

xtreme social conservatism is unecessary and self defeating. romney winning in Missouri while akin loses proves this!

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

And when Romney loses nationally, that will prove… what, exactly?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Yep.

Eren on November 3, 2012 at 8:53 AM

You might want to rethink Goode. He was beaten by a radical leftist newcomer in a district that should go Republican, because he thought he had it in the bag and didn’t work hard enough. He has been a Democrat, a Republican, an Independent, and a loser.

huckleberryfriend on November 3, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I’m aware of his “electability” (or should I say, lack thereof). My vote is a protest vote against the foisting of Romney onto the GOP ticket by the establishment. Goode is someone who has been consistent in his principles, and whose values I by-and-large agree with. I can’t say the same for Romney.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I was messing around with polls and stuff last night. By my count, we could get as high as 49 seats but that’s me being overly optimistic. We must make Harry Reid the face of the Democratic Party going into the 2014 elections.

joekenha on November 3, 2012 at 8:54 AM

And those two seats will likely cost us the ability to repeal Obamacare. No Senate control = no repeal.

TxAnn56 on November 3, 2012 at 8:50 AM

yep, and social conservatives harp away that what we really need is “true conservatives” instead of mushy middle. mushy middle wins, just look how much romney advanced when he turned to the center. the only problem is that republicans have to pander to the socon groups in the primaries and this wounds the in the general elections.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

So being pro-life now is extreme?

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

So, because men don’t have a vested interest, they should shut up about mass murder. Got it.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

It wouldn’t hurt if you clarified which one was R and which one was D. I’m not familiar with all of these races and I’m sure others might not be either.

JellyToast on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Basing votes on skin, gender, or lifestyle is a mistake.

rob verdi on November 3, 2012 at 8:49 AM

In President, Senate and House races I vote Democratic, so Baldwin gets my support either way, but its also kind of awesome.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

So, because men don’t have a vested interest, they should shut up about mass murder. Got it.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Men don’t have a vested interest, one way or another, in mass murder? How odd considering that men tend to commit most mass murders. Can you explain your logic there?

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:57 AM

yep, and social conservatives harp away that what we really need is “true conservatives” instead of mushy middle. mushy middle wins, just look how much romney advanced when he turned to the center. the only problem is that republicans have to pander to the socon groups in the primaries and this wounds the in the general elections.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

LOL!

Sorry, but Romney hasn’t pandered to SoCons in the primaries. He’s been on-air here in Virginia advertising his love of exceptions to abortion. His own sister has been going out telling women he wouldn’t overturn Roe. He’s the guy who said he wasn’t going to set his hair on fire for the base. He’s the guy who supported Roe v Wade vociferously as a governor, and he’s the guy who said Chick-fil-A wasn’t part of his campaign.

Sounds like you’re trying to make excuses, because in a set of ideal circumstances, the fiscally conservative, socially moderate/liberal candidate will have been proven to be a failure.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Who needs a daddy when you got the government.

tomas on November 3, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Although this analysis is cause for concern, I can’t help but feel that Mitt’s coattails will be long. This election is still all about turnout. I believe that the polls have no historic data to gauge just how upset the electorate is with the direction of our great land. Color me naive, but I am becoming more and more optimistic that we could be in for a great surprise come Tuesday.

HoustonRight on November 3, 2012 at 8:59 AM

And when Romney loses nationally, that will prove… what, exactly?

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:53 AM

romney has not lost yet, but he gained when he turned to the center. he did in the first debate and he almost won the election. His main issue is that his pandering in the primaries undermines his centrist credibility.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:59 AM

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Wow! Can’t wait to see how productive she is………

Rovin on November 3, 2012 at 8:59 AM

note, there are 2 seats that are lost on in serious risk because of extreme social con positions and helped dems advance in their “war on women” narrative.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 8:47 AM

I disagree with your lumping Akin and Mourdock together. Akin’s idiocy was just that–idiocy. His revelation about human biology was not a social conservative position, regardless of what the media tell us. That said, after he loses, I really do hope that–because of his arrogance–Akin comes to the worst of all possible ends.

With regard to Mourdock, he apparently has a heartfelt belief that he articulated very poorly. Let’s still keep in mind who holds the inherently more radical position: Mourdock pro-life down the line, or Obama abortion on demand even for those who survive an abortion.

BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Hey, dumbass, arguments don’t have testicles. They stand or fall on the merits, not on the genitalia of the people offering them.

OhioCoastie on November 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Removing Lugar was the result of a primary. Elections can be so inconvenient sometimes can’t they? Maybe if you have been in office sucking the public teat for 36 years you should just be made senator for life, like in Rome or the House of Lords. God knows that’s how Lugar thinks of himself.

Ted Torgerson on November 3, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Oldest/bustedest:
 

this is why I didn’t vote Dem before 2008 and while I’ll probably be returning to the greens from here on out. Stupid, stupid, stupid.
 
libfreeordie on January 23, 2009 at 10:41 AM

 
New election year hotness:
 

In President, Senate and House races I vote Democratic, so Baldwin gets my support either way, but its also kind of awesome.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:06 AM

JAZZ: in future stories, please use (R) and (D)… thx…

Khun Joe on November 3, 2012 at 9:06 AM

I’ll be voting for Akin against majority leader Reid on Tuesday

commodore on November 3, 2012 at 9:06 AM

LOL!

Sorry, but Romney hasn’t pandered to SoCons in the primaries.

lol!!!!!! he was the opposite of Massachusetts Mitt!

He’s been on-air here in Virginia advertising his love of exceptions to abortion.

good! no exception abortion is a loser politically, just ask akin and Murdock

His own sister has been going out telling women he wouldn’t overturn Roe. He’s the guy who said he wasn’t going to set his hair on fire for the base. He’s the guy who supported Roe v Wade vociferously as a governor, and he’s the guy who said Chick-fil-A wasn’t part of his campaign.

smart politics i guess.

Sounds like you’re trying to make excuses, because in a set of ideal circumstances, the fiscally conservative, socially moderate/liberal candidate will have been proven to be a failure.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:58 AM

if romney fails is because he is a awful candidate chosen only because the opposition was worse. but if you believe a santorum like candidate would do better, then akin and mourdock proves you worng!

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:06 AM

This guy always makes me laugh.

KABAMM

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Older/busteder:
 

this is why I voted Green in 2000 and 2004.
 
libfreeordie on February 8, 2012 at 9:52 PM

 
New election year hotness:
 

In President, Senate and House races I vote Democratic, so Baldwin gets my support either way, but its also kind of awesome.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Yup, mining your vaults for a post from 4 years ago is really a great way to show inconsistency, because people don’t mature or grow or anything.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Agh!It’s 9 am in PA and the get out the vote phone calls have already started. I can’t wait til 8 pm on Tuesday. I’m going to work. Go Smith.

talkingpoints on November 3, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Dingy Harry’s quote should be on RNC ads everywhere. The precious Independents should be offended.

Dingbat63 on November 3, 2012 at 9:10 AM

I wonder if rogerb gets that a dogged emphasis on intellectual inconsistency is hilarious from a Romney supporter.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:11 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

No, men making stupid comments about RAPE may cost us two seats. You can be a committed pro-life candidate (at least in some states/districts), but the word “rape” should never escape a conservative candidate’s mouth unless he’s talking bout how sternly to punish the criminal who commits it.

FuzzyLogic on November 3, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I wonder if rogerb gets that a dogged emphasis on intellectual inconsistency is hilarious from a Romney supporter.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:11 AM

I don’t understand your sentence.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Yup, mining your vaults for a post from 4 years ago is really a great way to show inconsistency, because people don’t mature or grow or anything.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

People, yes. You, not so much. I see regression, not maturing.

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I am getting mighty sick of this True Conservative bullsh*t. If the race is borne out by the polls, the True Conservative candidates have just handed us Obamacare in perpetuity.

Everyone who agitated for these people, I hope you’re proud of yourselves. I’m glad your RINO hunts proved successful.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

@OhioCoastie

Then those candidates better get their phrasing right, because we all know the media leans left, and they are gonna rip them to shreds every time they can over the issue.

So I have to agree with milcus, and Neal Boortz has said it many times as well.
Stop talking abortion.
Unless you are gonna have a response that doesn’t fan flames.

MityMaxx on November 3, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Yup, mining your vaults for a post from 4 years ago is really a great way to show inconsistency, because people don’t mature or grow or anything.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

 
Ha. Thanks for the intro to…
 
Older/busteder:
 

this is why I voted Green in 2000 and 2004.
 
libfreeordie on February 8, 2012 at 9:52 PM

 
 
New election year hotness:
 

In President, Senate and House races I vote Democratic, so Baldwin gets my support either way, but its also kind of awesome.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM

 
(Have you not noticed the grammatical tense, btw?)

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I wonder if rogerb gets that a dogged emphasis on intellectual inconsistency is hilarious from a Romney supporter.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:11 AM
I don’t understand your sentence.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

I mean, as an Obama supporter, you can’t be keying in on intellectual inconsistency.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Jazz, if the vote is as close as it looks in MT.
I think Tester will have Gov Schweitzer to help him over the hump as they say. (like in 2006) check out the stories on Breitbart from a few days ago. I sure hope it doesn’t go this way but MT has gotten more “California” than most realize, Sorry to be a bummer.
Crossroads and RNC have done a pretty good job with ads, the campaign turned nasty (no shocker). Romney cut an ad for Rehberg that I started seeing last week.
My hope is that the college dem’s won’t turn out like they did in 2008 to “help” him over the top.
We have same day registration and a George Soro’s Sec of St. (see SOS project.)

No tinfoil hat, facts of the matter.
Pray it turns out our way.

MontanaMmmm on November 3, 2012 at 9:15 AM

@KingGold

It doesn’t matter.
Obamacare was gonna stand either way.
You honestly expect the Republicans to vote it down?
What previous entitlement program have they gotten rid of?
None, they have only helped to expand them.

MityMaxx on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Well, having lived in both states for many years I disagree with Jazz on Ohio and Pennsylvania. First, Ras has only a 1% marging bewteen Casey and Smith, not a big deal considering the margin of error. And the other polls in the RCP like Franklin and Marshall have skewed internals favoring Dems(64% of those polled were union members.) Casey should have been a walk in the park but isn’t. And the coal issue is huge there, which benefits Smith.

In Ohio, Mandel has a tougher road but Brown has made an a$$ of himself, is an a$$ and has shown it in this campaign. I’m not so sure his auto bailout is good strategy will work in all but a couple of areas. There are now only two guaranteed Dem strongholds in Ohio. One is Cuyahoga and the other is little Ashtabula county. The other former strongholds like Youngstown, Columbus, and Cinncinnatti are definite toss-ups. So we’ll see.

Deanna on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

And I’m sick of progressive republicans rewarding conservative loyalty by blaming every GOP misstep on them.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Obama campaign was already pulling out of VA ahead of the last debate.

GOP leadership from VA is now working in Ohio.

Kaine gets beaten by Allen.

Kermit on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

So, because men don’t have a vested interest, they should shut up about mass murder. Got it.

Stoic Patriot on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Men don’t have a vested interest, one way or another, in mass murder? How odd considering that men tend to commit most mass murders. Can you explain your logic there?

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:57 AM

I take it that what’s being suggested is that men are merely sperm donors and thus don’t have any responsibility if their partner (speaking here of traditional rather than non) gets pregnant.

Let me opine that Men (i.e., fathers) have more responsibility when pregnancy occurs — we have the responsibility of protecting (e.g. ensure comfort, food, shelter) our partner during her pregnancy so she delivers a healthy baby at full term. I’m not implying that women are the weaker sex, but during pregnancy they’re kinda of busy making a baby; a father needs to do more than hand out cigars.

A boys wearing a man’s body (again no implication intended here about non-tradit…oh you know what I mean) running around sowing wild oats may result in babies being born but will not result in adults who fully participate in society.

Robbin Hood on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I wonder if rogerb gets that a dogged emphasis on intellectual inconsistency is hilarious from a Romney supporter.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:11 AM

 
Distraction? That’s the card you chose after “maturing”?
 
Well played.

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

What the drill sgt said. Had to keep flicking back and forth. I’ve admittedly spent a disproportionate amount of time on the presidential contest instead of Senate.

onetrickpony on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

this is why I voted Green in 2000 and 2004.

libfreeordie on February 8, 2012 at 9:52 PM
In President, Senate and House races I vote Democratic, so Baldwin gets my support either way, but its also kind of awesome.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:56 AM
Yup, mining your vaults for a post from 4 years ago is really a great way to show inconsistency, because people don’t mature or grow or anything.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:08 AM

I think roger b was pointing out the silliness of your saying you vote Democratic for President when you said you voted Green in 2000 and 2004, leaving only the 2008 election for you to have voted democratic.

I don’t see how switching to voting straight party D is maturing or growing. Devolving perhaps. Feel free to vote green again this year, or Libertarian. At least there is a principal to vote for for Johnson. For Obama, there is nothing but lies, lies, poverty, unemployment, greed, failed energy industries, broken infrastructure, $140,000 national debt per household ( double that per tax paying household), failed foreign policy, loss of religious liberty, attacks on the right to bear arms, hundreds of dead Mexicans, attacks on free speech, outsourcing of US jobs, etc. etc.

Obviously I can’t comment on individual down-ticket races, but a vote for Obama is not a sign of maturity.

talkingpoints on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I don’t understand your sentence.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

rogerb likes to post others comments in ways that emphasize some internal contradiction or hypocrisy, with uneven results. At times he’s spot on, others he ends up clowning himself. Nonetheless, the unstated logic of his posts is that there’s something about intellectual inconsistency that belies poor thinking or that should discount a person’s political analysis. Now, of course, rogerb is trading in a logical fallacy, but that’s besides the point. The bigger issue is the inherent contradiction that comes form someone like rogerb supporting Mitt Romney, a man who will, and as we saw in the debates, has said *anything* to get elected, regardless of previous positions. In this way, rogerb is guilty of the very sin he locates in others.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

No! They should learn how to defend their positions without painting a target on themselves and everyone in the vicinity with an R label. It isnt that hard if one has actually thought about the issue and had discussions with people who disagree at some point in one’s life.

aikidoka on November 3, 2012 at 9:18 AM

With regard to Mourdock, he apparently has a heartfelt belief that he articulated very poorly. Let’s still keep in mind who holds the inherently more radical position: Mourdock pro-life down the line, or Obama abortion on demand even for those who survive an abortion.

BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM

And what’s your point? Whether what he said was different from what Akin said or not in the meaning doesn’t matter one bit. His remarks may have cost him the race, just like Akin.

You know, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing again and expecting a different response. Mourdock was not locked in a cave during Akin’s self-immolation, and yet he decided to talk about rape in anything other than the most negative terms in full view of the television public. Ergo, you could say that’s even worse than Akin.

You know what I’m hoping? I’m hoping that McMahon, Smith and Thompson pull it out and win us control while those morons lose. Getting saved by a bunch of RINOs is perfect punishment for our party’s politically blind zealots.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Let’s count: in 2010 we had NV, CO and DE slip away. This cycle, it’s IN, MO and perhaps MT.

That’s 5 or 6 Senate seats thrown away in 2 cycles. As a result, instead of 52-53 seats, the GOP is going to be stuck at 46-47 (and I hope the ND and AZ races go our way, which is not a given). The quality of candidates matter, or we’ll keep giving the Dems these gifts.

And it’s important for 2014, when the GOP will get their third shot at the majority.

buridan on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

And I’m sick of progressive republicans rewarding conservative loyalty by blaming every GOP misstep on them.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Amen.

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

This is all great news for the GOP establishment Ayatollahs!

They won’t have to do sh*t if they don’t own the Senate. They’ll just sit back and blame the Dims for everything.

Great news for them any time they don’t actually have to produce something.

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Agree with aikidoka on this one.

You know the subject is coming up, especially in this campaign cycle.

You should have a response ready.
No excuse for Akin or Murdoch….
They are just idiots.

MityMaxx on November 3, 2012 at 9:20 AM

That’s pretty cool.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

ya-hoo. the first gay president worked so well.

t8stlikchkn on November 3, 2012 at 9:20 AM

I don’t think tammy baldwin is going to win. The only reason she’s on the ballot is because of the dem pecking order, where lesbian trumps all. She is the darling of madison but the rest of the state isn’t impressed.

fatigue on November 3, 2012 at 9:20 AM

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I’m so glad you three value ideological Onanism over junking Obamacare. Always looking at the big picture, aren’t ya?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

And I’m sick of progressive republicans rewarding conservative loyalty by blaming every GOP misstep on them.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Yet you will keep voting for them – like all good little Conservative slaves do.

You’ll continue to vote for the “lesser of two evils” even though doing so has only put this nation on the rocks.

Gotta fix one party bro – before you can fix the nation. You can only fix a party by politically terminating the old guard Ayatollahs who just “manage” catastrophe.

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

With regard to Mourdock, he apparently has a heartfelt belief that he articulated very poorly. Let’s still keep in mind who holds the inherently more radical position: Mourdock pro-life down the line, or Obama abortion on demand even for those who survive an abortion.

BuckeyeSam on November 3, 2012 at 9:00 AM

no exceptions abortion is a political loser, as it is certain types of religious justifications for policies.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

I’m so glad you three value ideological Onanism over junking Obamacare. Always looking at the big picture, aren’t ya?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

GOP never was going to junk ObamaCare.

And if you cared about junking it you’d have supported Christine O’Donnell and Todd Akin.

So go shave your hypocritical ass!

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:23 AM

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

He very accurately uses old liberal comments to show the hypocrisy of said liberals when juxtaposed to more contemporary comments of theirs. The man is a genius with a near photographic memory. If the truth hurts, I recommend you switch to the new and improved “Consistency” Brand dogma.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Tammy Baldwin is going to be the United States first openly gay or lesbian senator (key word being “openly” Lindsay Graham fans). That’s pretty cool.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:46 AM

But not the first openly communist senator.

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:25 AM

You know what I’m hoping? I’m hoping that McMahon, Smith and Thompson pull it out and win us control while those morons lose. Getting saved by a bunch of RINOs is perfect punishment for our party’s politically blind zealots.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Politically blind zealots depends on your point of view. To me RINO’s are politically blind zealots who like all statists see more government as the answer.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:25 AM

You know our country is in a sad state, when a race like this one (President and Senate seats) are all at statistical ties.

The media has done a huge disservice to our country over the past 4 years by giving Obama a pass….

Can you imagine how the media would be covering things if this were a Republican in office?
The polls would have the Dem up over 6 points in every poll.

Libya would have been the top headline everyday since Sept. 12th.

Very sad

MityMaxx on November 3, 2012 at 9:25 AM

and Ras has Joe Donnelly up by a slim margin in the final week. It could still go either way, though, and this one is definitely too close to call.

A new poll (DePauw university, I think. It was blasted all over the front page of the local newspaper yesterday) in Indiana has Mourdock trailing by 11. Yes, eleven. Hoosiers are notorious ticket splitters. Remember that while Obama carried Indiana in 2008, Mitch Daniels won reelection by nearly 20 points. I hate to say this, but I think Mourdock is toast, even with Romney and Pence (governor) each winning by double digits.

JimLennon on November 3, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Getting saved by a bunch of RINOs is perfect punishment for our party’s politically blind zealots.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:19 AM

I hope they pull it out too – just to prove to you that those RINO’s will be a poison to any real reforms we attempt.

You got Snottie Brown saying he’ll never defund Planned Parenthood. If he can’t bring himself to vote for that – he won’t vote for any real change in entitlements.

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

no exceptions abortion is a political loser, as it is certain types of religious justifications for policies.

nathor on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

That isn’t true, actually – Ryan has held, and ably defended, the position for years.

He just follows two rules – number one, talk about it as little as possible, and number two, if you’re a man, the word “rape” should never come out of your mouth.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Always looking at the big picture, aren’t ya?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

The best part of the Romney administration is that he won’t have to bow and scrape to the demands of the kooks who have glommed on to the GOP. Every so often in politics coalitions change and adjust. This is one of those inflection points where the GOP will finally be able to rid itself of the devils known as the religious right. Reagan was the first to truly dine with them, and he was wise enough to use a long spoon. The lesser men who weren’t have allowed the party to be painted with their brush.

MJBrutus on March 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Yep. Looking at lots of big pictures.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

The state of the Senate race

…gee thanks Jazz!…think I’ll have a ‘depression doughnut’ with my morning coffee!

KOOLAID2 on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

So being pro-life now is extreme?

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Here’s the way it seems to have worked: Akin was ahead until he made that mornoic statement. Now McCaskill is ahead double digits. How does this help the pro-life cause?

No one said they need to give up their principles. They just need to stop making incredible stupid remarks.

Shay on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

The lies of PA’s Casey Jr.’s campaign about supporting energy programs are beyond belief. Junior has to go!

onlineanalyst on November 3, 2012 at 9:28 AM

I’m so glad you three value ideological Onanism over junking Obamacare. Always looking at the big picture, aren’t ya?

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Honda belongs in his own mental ward, not in the same category as hawkdriver and myself.

You aren’t upset at stupid comments, but anyone even mentioning abortion. And while Akin may lose in Missouri, he wasn’t the Tea Party choice in that state. But the Republicans of Missouri made their choice, and so Akin is their problem. And Mourdock will win in Indiana.

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:29 AM

It isnt that hard if one has actually thought about the issue and had discussions with people who disagree at some point in one’s life.

aikidoka on November 3, 2012 at 9:18 AM

What other political issue deals directly with another sovereign human’s body. Drug legalization maybe? Drinking age? That’s about it. We all can feel passionately about various causes and law, but laws that directly determine what a woman can do with her body, and initatives which dictate to sexual assault victims how they should react to their experience are going to make politicians look stupid. There’s no elegant or persuasive way to tell a woman “I’m sorry you were assaulted and you are pregnant, but I’m going to outlaw your ability to abort your attacker’s baby.” That is what Mourdock, Akin, and now that Foster guy are trying to tell voters. It just sounds horrible, ain’t no way around it.

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Men don’t have a vested interest, one way or another, in mass murder? How odd considering that men tend to commit most mass murders. Can you explain your logic there?

libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 8:57 AM

And your source is???

Abortion statistics are never specific, as the procedure is protected under the right to privacy laws. However, it has been estimated that 3,000 are done daily.

54,559,615 Abortions Since Roe vs. Wade Decision in 1973
http://www.lifenews.com/…/54559615-abortions-since-roe-vs-wade-decision

wolverinefan on November 3, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Men talking about abortion is potentially costing us 2 seats. Men need to STFU about abortion, especially as republicans.

milcus on November 3, 2012 at 8:43 AM

I don’t think it’s the abortion discussion, per se. Messrs. Akin and Mourdock only bought trouble when they made weird comments about rape. A candidate saying “I am pro-life. Period.” ala Paul Ryan, never makes himself a punchline.

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on November 3, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Shay on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

So, Akins making a stupid statement, apologizing for it, the GOP buckling to liberal media pressure and stopping support for him almost guaranteeing a McCaskill victory should make me not be pro-life? I’m only commenting to the extreme comment above that said I’m not even allowed to talk about it.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Never seen a thread on HA where so many of the posters were so out of touch with what is going on and going to happen on Tuesday. Just wait and see my friends….

Caseoftheblues on November 3, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Here’s the way it seems to have worked: Akin was ahead until he made that mornoic statement. Now McCaskill is ahead double digits. How does this help the pro-life cause?

No one said they need to give up their principles. They just need to stop making incredible stupid remarks.

Shay on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

You guys have been begging for political leaders for years who aren’t in this for themselves. You’ve been asking for REAL people in office.

Now you complain when they make the same kind of mistakes a normal person makes.

Go back and vote for Mitch McConnell like a good Conservative Slave – he doesn’t make “misstatements”.

Then again – he don’t SH*T for reforming this nation either now does he?

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Politically blind zealots depends on your point of view. To me RINO’s are politically blind zealots who like all statists see more government as the answer.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:25 AM

If you really believe that, how is the small-government cause helped by electing more Democrats to the Senate? Because when you run bad candidates with harder-to-defend stances, that’s exactly what you do.

You think I want to depend on RINOs? I sure don’t, but at this point, in contested races, RINOs are the only ones who seem capable of winning. The conservative candidates – Akin, Mourdock – are running far behind Romney in their states. The RINO candidates – McMahon, Smith, Thompson – are tied or ahead.

KingGold on November 3, 2012 at 9:32 AM

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Well said.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:32 AM

The bigger issue is the inherent contradiction that comes form someone like rogerb supporting Mitt Romney, a man who will, and as we saw in the debates, has said *anything* to get elected, regardless of previous positions. In this way, rogerb is guilty of the very sin he locates in others.
 
libfreeordie on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

 
 
Distraction again. Borderline ad hominem (sinner). Nice.
 
Regardless, that’s the bigger issue? Then it should be easy to point out my constant and very verbose hypocrisy in posts where I support Mitt.
 
Your turn. Put up or shut up.
 
123go.

rogerb on November 3, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Honda belongs in his own mental ward, not in the same category as hawkdriver and myself.

NotCoach on November 3, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Agreed – you and I wouldn’t get along very well in the same cell.

HondaV65 on November 3, 2012 at 9:33 AM

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