Quotes of the day

posted at 10:17 pm on November 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

After more than a year of campaigning, endless political advertisements, two conventions and four debates, the presidential election is almost over. The big decision of 2012 will soon be in the hands of the voters. The choice Americans make will shape great things, historic things, and those will determine the most important and intimate aspects of every American life and every American family. All presidential elections matter. This one matters a great deal.

It matters to the senior who needs medical care but, thanks to ObamaCare, can’t find a doctor who is taking new Medicare patients. It matters to the men and women who once had good-paying jobs with benefits but now work part-time with no benefits just to put food on the table. It matters to the college student graduating this spring with a heavy load of debt and few opportunities to pay it back. It matters to the single mother who lives in fear of foreclosure as her employment prospects dwindle…

This requires a different direction, a change from the course of the past four years. It requires that we put aside the small and the petty, and demand the scale of change that we deserve: real change, big change. I pledge that my presidency will bring about that kind of change—confronting the problems that politicians have avoided for over a decade, revitalizing our competitive economy, modernizing our education system, restoring our founding principles.

***

An Obama second term means that the movement toward European-style social democracy continues, in part by legislation, in part by executive decree. The American experiment — the more individualistic, energetic, innovative, risk-taking model of democratic governance — continues to recede, yielding to the supervised life of the entitlement state.

If Obama loses, however, his presidency becomes a historical parenthesis, a passing interlude of overreaching hyper-liberalism, rejected by a center-right country that is 80 percent nonliberal.

Should they summon the skill and dexterity, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan could guide the country to the restoration of a more austere and modest government with more restrained entitlements and a more equitable and efficient tax code. Those achievements alone would mark a new trajectory — a return to what Reagan started three decades ago.

***

Poll after poll, I generally see the same thing. Romney has an edge on the economy. That includes most of the state polls…

I do not know of an election where the electorate was so singularly focused on one set of issues, and the person trusted less on them nevertheless won…

Is it possible to win a presidential election while losing the independent vote? Sure. The independents basically split down the middle in 2000 and 2004, which left the outcome up to the relative strengths of the two party bases. But that is not what I see right now. Instead, I see a Romney margin among independents that ranges between 5 and 10 points. Prior to the 1980s, I could see the Democrats overcoming that, but not in 2012…

[T]his is a different approach than the poll mavens will offer. They are taking data at face value, running simulations off it, and generating probability estimates. That is not what this is, and it should not be interpreted as such. I am not willing to take polls at face value anymore. I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory.

***

Early voting is the best indicator we have for base enthusiasm. The weeks of early voting that now precede Election Day are the best chance for Democrats to win elections. This is not a time when undecided or even many persuadable voters go to the polls, but instead partisans show their ardor.

The latest Pew study and a slew of others show that what had been a huge advantage for Obama has been erased and maybe even reversed…

Romney leads widely among the most passionate voters – 9 points in the most recent Politico/George Washington University survey of battleground state voters – and Republicans have managed to match Democrats when it comes to contacting voters directly.

Team Obama staked nearly as much on ground game superiority and getting out the vote as it did on the “kill Mitt” strategy. Again, the Blue Team did not deliver.

***

Obama is in big trouble in Wisconsin. He is spending his last weekend in a state that last went Republican in the 1984 Reagan landslide.

Team Romney is going hard after Pennsylvania because both internal and public polling show significant movement toward Romney in recent days. Yesterday, Rep. Ryan and Sen. Marco Rubio drew large and enthusiastic crowds in Pennsylvania. On Sunday, Romney will hold a campaign rally in the Philadelphia suburbs. Who would have thought that Obama would spend the last days of the campaign defending a solidly blue state, while Romney makes a play for another one?

***

So assume:

(a) Total PA turnout is up 3% over 2008. Philly County comprises 11.5% of total PA electorate (similar to 2004, less than 2008).

(b) Romney wins non-Philly county 54-46. (Slightly better than Bush ’04, who won 52.5 to 47.5)

Then:

Obama MUST net 433k votes out of Philly County to win. In 2008 he netted 478k votes. In 2004 Kerry netted 410k votes. In 2000 Gore netted 350k votes.

Tweak the assumptions to lower Philly turnout, increase non-Philly turnout, increase Romney share of non-Philly. And Keystone State goes red.

***

Obama may need to do something Democrats have almost never done in the past nine decades: win a higher share of the vote in [Ohio] than he does nationally. Almost always, the GOP nominee has run stronger in Ohio than nationally. That’s not entirely surprising in a place that served as one of the birthplaces of the Republican Party and where two native sons, William McKinley and his legendary political strategist Mark Hanna, stamped the GOP’s modern identity as the pro-business party of small government in the realigning election of 1896.

Since 1924, the only Democratic presidential nominees who attracted a higher share of the popular vote in Ohio than nationally were Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Hubert Humphrey in 1968, George McGovern in 1972, and Kerry in 2004. And of those four, only Johnson (at 1.8 percentage points) improved on his national vote by more than 0.6 percentage points in Ohio. Since World War II, the Democratic presidential nominee has carried, on average, almost exactly 1 percentage point less of the popular vote in Ohio than he did nationally.

That’s obviously a challenging precedent for Obama, who is running at best even with Romney, if not trailing slightly, in most credible national surveys. Even Obama, while winning Ohio comfortably in 2008, drew 51.4 percent of the vote here, pointedly less than his 52.8 percent national showing. All of that suggests Obama would be defying history to take Ohio in an election where he wins the national popular vote by a hair, or tries to amass an Electoral College majority while losing the popular vote altogether. “Relying on Ohio is not where you want to be as a Democrat,” says Terry Nelson, the national field director in 2004 for George W. Bush, who clinched the presidency by defeating the Democratic nominee in Ohio by 118,000 votes after an epic investment from both sides. “I would not be sleeping well.”

***

***

***

“The door to a brighter future is there, open, waiting for us. I need your vote, I need your help. Walk with me, walk together. Let us start anew.”


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Kenneth

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Obama is toast..
Gumby…
Sit on it and rotate..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Hello…

Gumby?

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

…is today going to be troll heaven?

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

After the Romney/Ryan OIHO rally I am more convinced than ever that we will win this…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Hi Scrumpy.

SparkPlug on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

…is today going to be troll heaven?

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

If not..

I will be willing to fill in..

:)

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

Oh yeah he will win. But i want a big win.

315 evs would be nice

SparkPlug on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

I hope Tuesday’s political horse race is as rewarding as today’s races at Santa Anita. What a way to wrap up the week that would be!

OH, and evening everybody.

predator on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Who is Scrumpy??

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Who would have thought that Obama would spend the last days of the campaign defending a solidly blue state, while Romney makes a play for another one?

flailing desperately?

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

8th!

Paul-Cincy on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

After the Romney/Ryan OIHO rally I am more convinced than ever that we will win this…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

I never had that feeling in 2008. I do this year.

Romney is at this moment for a reason.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Should they summon the skill and dexterity, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan could guide the country to the restoration of a more austere and modest government with more restrained entitlements and a more equitable and efficient tax code. Those achievements alone would mark a new trajectory — a return to what Reagan started three decades ago

…gawd I hope so!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Oh yeah he will win. But i want a big win.

315 evs would be nice

SparkPlug on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Yeah, I want him to have a mandate…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Hello…

Gumby?

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Please don’t call “it”

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Go go gadget go

Mitt sounding presidential more everyday

Yeah buddy

cmsinaz on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Someone was saying how bi-polar this election season is. A high one day, a low by that evening just because you’re so scared. Well, I’m finally on a permanent high. It’s not now whether Romney will win, it’s by how much. And I plan to be very very very happy Tuesday night.

Marcus on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

You could argue that the Benghazi coverup broke open at just the right time.

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Anybody watching the Obama/Sandy telethon on NBC?

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Romney was excellent tonight in Ohio..

If this country is or wants doom..
Then we know what this country will vote for..

But I have seen momentum..

Americans aren’t ready to become slaves to a Government..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

Anybody catch this in headlines today? I did the math, and if they are right, Gumby gonna self destruct. ABC/WaPo on top of that.

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

I will be willing to fill in..

:)

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

…why?…where’s Lanceman been?

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Please don’t call “it”

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

It’s gone..

Government recall…
I hear…

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

That’s obviously a challenging precedent for Obama, who is running at best even with Romney, if not trailing slightly, in most credible national surveys.

Allahpundit

.
There are credible surveys?

listens2glenn on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Wow. Was not expecting “devil Ed Schultz” at the end of the Romney video.

Kinda startled me a bit.

KingGold on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

I never had that feeling in 2008. I do this year.

Romney is at this moment for a reason.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:22 PM

No, I never felt that way either in ’08. BTW, thank you for your sunny optimism throughout this whole cycle, it was contagious and helped me in some pretty bleak moments, darlin’
You are really a sweetheart…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

After the Romney/Ryan OIHO rally I am more convinced than ever that we will win this…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:20 PM

And that brilliant speech in Wisconsin this morning. Reaganesque.

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

…why?…where’s Lanceman been?

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Last thread..

Should be here shortly…

I think it would be fun to play a dumb f*ck…

Easy…

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

MANDATE! MANDATE! MANDATE!

disa on November 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

V – I – C – T – O – R – Y

El_Terrible on November 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

GG@10:22 its a God thing…. He knew mitt had to wait until now

cmsinaz on November 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

looks like a quiet, troll-free night, I wonder if the size of Romney’s crowd in OH sent the exhibitionist pole dancer into withdrawal…he was ‘worried’ about Romney’s crowd size this morning, which is priceless given the obama meagre crowds of late.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

I will be glad when this is over…but so very sad if Obama wins. I think Romney has a real shot at this. Fingers crossed.

Terrye on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Anybody catch this in headlines today? I did the math, and if they are right, Gumby gonna self destruct. ABC/WaPo on top of that.

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

….on November 7th…I hope we don’t get some weird AP or Reuters story of someone found in their mothers basement…hanging by their entrails!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

Oh yeah he will win. But i want a big win.

315 evs would be nice

SparkPlug on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

.
Yeah, I want him to have a mandate…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

.
TOTALLY.

listens2glenn on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

TUESDAY’S FORECAST:

B – A – C – O – N

El_Terrible on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

V – I – C – T – O – R – Y

El_Terrible on November 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

I was moderated for saying just that..

:)

Joking..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

OT: A really nice football story from the daily mail.

gh on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

BTW, since this is an open thread:

Must-MISS Monday night TV: “The Factor”.

“The Factor” promises Monday night to completely review the election and “The Factor” is mad neither candidate did his show. “The Factor” is going to non-endorse and chastise both for refusing to bow.

Tonight:
Guest: “Well Romney I’d say safely has Virginia and Florida.”
Factor: “Oh but Colorado will go Obama.”
Guest: “Well, OK, but Romney is looking good in Wisconsin now.”
Factor: “But Obama will carry Nevada. Guaranteed.”

He’s such an ass. Worse than Scarborough.

Marcus on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

The Romney speech tonight was among the best I have heard him give. Obama’s speech today was petty and small. Mitt was big and Presidential. Romney/Ryan is the best overall team the GOP has put up since Reagan/Bush. I hope they bring it home.

SAZMD on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 PM

I knew the election was lost for Obama when seeing him in the bomber jacket. It was Dukakis in the helmet all over again, sans tank. But, Obama did have AF1 as a prop instead.

As Phil Collins said, “I can feel it coming in the air, tonight, Oh Lord.”

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Go Mitt!

I will be knocking on doors tomorrow.

Mitt has done what he can, now it is time for us to do what we can.

Let’s roll!

Let’s win this!

Jvette on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

The thing about government numbers vs. reality is that there are 23,000,000 Americans who aren’t working as much as they want to. That’s not just 23,000,000 voters. It’s their spouses, kids, siblings, parents and grandparents that are affected. They can massage the numbers all they want, but unless the democrats successfully cheat, the country will go red.

talkingpoints on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Eeyore Alert!

I’m not used to feeling optimistic about GOP Prez candidates chances the weekend before the election.

Letting that tiny sliver of optimism in gives me the hebe-geebees.

Bruno Strozek on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

No, I never felt that way either in ’08. BTW, thank you for your sunny optimism throughout this whole cycle, it was contagious and helped me in some pretty bleak moments, darlin’
You are really a sweetheart…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

You are so sweet and you are so welcome.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Someone was saying how bi-polar this election season is. A high one day, a low by that evening just because you’re so scared. Well, I’m finally on a permanent high. It’s not now whether Romney will win, it’s by how much. And I plan to be very very very happy Tuesday night.

Marcus on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

My blood pressure has dropped delightfully since the first debate. I, too, wish to revel in anticipation of a sound victory for Romney on Tuesday. I would crawl over broken glass to vote for him.

And I was one of those people who earlier this year said I would NEVER vote for Romney. He’s sold me.

I BELIEVE, and boy, does it feel good.

disa on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I’m pumped. Obama is looking desperate. Mitt is looking confident.

predator on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Romney was Reaganesque and presidential in OIHO…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Barry will have a rally in OH with Springsteen and Jay-Z on Monday. Wonder what kind of crowd will it draw? The last one in Cleveland, with BJ, Springsteen and Barry on 10/18, got only 3000 people.

bayview on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Go Mitt!

I will be knocking on doors tomorrow.

Mitt has done what he can, now it is time for us to do what we can.

Let’s roll!

Let’s win this!

Jvette on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Words to live by..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

“Romney is at this moment for a reason”- GG.

Yep. Absolutely!

And so are we, ready to crawl over broken glass to vote.

wolly4321 on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

No, I never felt that way either in ’08. BTW, thank you for your sunny optimism throughout this whole cycle, it was contagious and helped me in some pretty bleak moments, darlin’
You are really a sweetheart…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

now, compare that with illindiva’s depression bouts :)

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I think it would be fun to play a dumb f*ck…

Easy…

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:26 PM

…look at HotLips …it’s effortless!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Just a question- (because it kind of took the edge off my excitement of the Ohio rally tonight). I saw Karl Rove on Hannity, and he wasn’t all that comforting. He said Romney would win, but narrowly. So did Charles Krauthammer. Any thoughts on them being so cautious?

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

GG@10:22 its a God thing…. He knew mitt had to wait until now

cmsinaz on November 2, 2012 at 10:27 PM

Exactly. After I read that story on him praying – that just sealed the deal.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Great write up AP. My family and I will vote on Election Day.
I’m hoping that we’ll have a Landslide election so there will be no doubt. God willing, we’ll do just that!!!

bluefox on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

I am more interested in connecting the polls to history and the long-run structure of American politics, and when I do that I see a Romney victory.

and an Obama ass whoopin’.

ted c on November 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Barry will have a rally in OH with Springsteen and Jay-Z on Monday. Wonder what kind of crowd will it draw? The last one in Cleveland, with BJ, Springsteen and Barry on 10/18, got only 3000 people.

bayview on November 2, 2012 at 10:31 PM

maybe the Oihoans are not so into Jay-Z :-)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

and an Obama ass whoopin’.

ted c on November 2, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Bring it, Iowa…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples
Romney campaign estimates Ohio crowd at 30k. Local police report 18k. Still, biggest of Romney’s political career. #2012
Details
2h

Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples
Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

I will be knocking on doors tomorrow.

Mitt has done what he can, now it is time for us to do what we can.

Let’s roll!

Let’s win this!

Jvette on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Me too, for the 3rd weekend in a row. I’m tired, don’t know how these candidates do it.

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Kenneth

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:18 PM

What’s the frequency?

thebrokenrattle on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Great write up AP. My family and I will vote on Election Day.
I’m hoping that we’ll have a Landslide election so there will be no doubt. God willing, we’ll do just that!!!

bluefox on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Yes, indeed.

Terrye on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

In your dreams, fool…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Susquehanna Polling new poll…R up 4 in PA.

wargamer6 on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

I saw Karl Rove on Hannity, and he wasn’t all that comforting. He said Romney would win, but narrowly. So did Charles Krauthammer. Any thoughts on them being so cautious?

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

sure, they’re pundits. Which is worse, them being wrong on the big side and overestimating a Romney win or calling it close and the results end up over their prediction? As a pundit, the only thing they have is a reputation. If they look too wrong, they devalue their stock.
.02

ted c on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Oh yeah he will win. But i want a big win.

315 evs would be nice

SparkPlug on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

.
Yeah, I want him to have a mandate…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:23 PM

.
TOTALLY.

listens2glenn on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 PM

…you guys are making a tingle run up and down my leg!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

…you guys are making a tingle run up and down my leg!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Heh…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
By Dick Morris on November 2, 2012

As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

…SHUT UP!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples
Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Whomever Peoples is, he’s a darn liar, just like you.

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Benghazi, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nobody cares about Benghazi.
gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 1:14 AM

Isn’t this what you really want to talk about, you little cur?

thatsafactjack on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

…SHUT UP…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Just a question- (because it kind of took the edge off my excitement of the Ohio rally tonight). I saw Karl Rove on Hannity, and he wasn’t all that comforting. He said Romney would win, but narrowly. So did Charles Krauthammer. Any thoughts on them being so cautious?

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

Mitt will win big, anticipate that, and sweet dreams.

Preference cascade, take me awaaaaay!

disa on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

In your dreams, fool…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

That guy was at the rally and was just reporting what he saw. Sorry if a realistic appraisal of the situation bothers you.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Lol

wargamer6 on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Mitt’s Body Man ‏@dgjackson
Amazing that over 30,000 people showed up tonight. So much fun

man, I sooo wish I were there, 30,000 shiwd up, can you imagine, gumbey must be squirming :-)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

ONE THREAD – JUST ONE THREAD

is that too much to ask?

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Not going to happen for Mitt. Obama is going to out organize him and out-tactic him in the end, just like he did to Hillary. Mitt had his moment, but he never turned that solid first debate performance into a solid lead. He doesn’t have the experience or the team, apparently — the Washington Nationals of politics.

Obama looked good during the flood and the job numbers won’t be a factor.

The fact that Mitt’s running desperate, lying adds in swing states suggest a man who knows that his tide has crested and, like flood waters on the Lexington Avenue Line, is falling slowly back.

My best guess anyway. At least I admit its a prediction.

I knew the election was lost for Obama when seeing him in the bomber jacket. It was Dukakis in the helmet all over again, sans tank. But, Obama did have AF1 as a prop instead.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Or Bush in a flight suit.

sadly for you, though, that picture is far from iconic and few swing voters treasure it as you apparently do.

urban elitist on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

Right. One guy’s opinion = realistic opinion of what happened.

BuzzFeed Zeke: Romney’s telling some morbid stories.

What really happened: Talked about kids with cancer.

I can’t wait until tuesday; your sorry ass will be gone.

wargamer6 on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

and.. THAR SHE BLOWS!

disa on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples
Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Whomever Peoples is, he’s a darn liar, just like you.

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 10:37 PM

He’s a reporter covering the rally. It’s funny to keep reading the 30,000 number that isn’t close to reality.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Just a question- (because it kind of took the edge off my excitement of the Ohio rally tonight). I saw Karl Rove on Hannity, and he wasn’t all that comforting. He said Romney would win, but narrowly. So did Charles Krauthammer. Any thoughts on them being so cautious?

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 10:32 PM

I am not sure about Rove…but Krauthammer was going on about how lucky Obama was that Sandy came along and saved his butt…somehow I am not sure that it is a good thing to refer to a hurricane as good luck. He was also talking about how Romney should have gone after Benghazi. You know what..it would have been even more helpful if the press had done its job and gone after the Benghazi story. I think the fact that the polls tied up in the last day or so bothered him.

But who knows?

Terrye on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Yes, because people wait all that time, in the cold, and then leave during the speech at the end because they lacked energy and committment to Romney. By the way, how many were at Obama’s rally today?

SAZMD on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

Anybody watching the Obama/Sandy telethon on NBC?

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 10:24 PM

As my teenagers would say, “Heck to the NO!!!”

mom29js on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

ACORN is defunct, 0bama doesn’t stand a chance…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

He can sink the economy and campaign and vacation a great deal
But taking any responsibly to him just does not appeal
He has less class than the back of a hack
When he cries for anyone but himself the tears run down his back
If he would just take responsibility sometime somewhere
The MSM frogs would probably give him the Croix-de-Guerre
He has profound delusions and spews such a crock
On him complete madness will soon have a full head lock
He has so many pathologies it would make Freud’s knees knock
And when on November 6 he loses the face he makes will stop a cuckoo clock
You might forget his incessant lies and grating yell
But you’ll never forget the President from Hell

VorDaj on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

…SHUT UP…!!!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

People aren’t even turning out to hear Mitt speak. They’re turning out to see the next President. The crowds are huge.

MrX on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Local police say otherwise, liar.

wargamer6 on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

In The Last Few Hours…Sudden Danger Signs In Polling
By Dick Morris on November 2, 2012

As Election Day approaches, we must be very sensitive to last minute changes in the polls. Remember that President George W. Bush fell from a 4 point lead into a tie over the last weekend in 2000 and Clinton rose from a tie to a 5 point win in the last weekend of 1992.
With that caution in mind, a danger signal comes from the latest Rasmussen Poll reflecting a two point gain for Obama. Whereas before the storm, Rasmussen showed Romney two ahead, he now has the race tied at 48-48.
That is troublesome.
And, in Pennsylvania, Romney led on Wednesday night by two points but on Thursday night’s polling, he was tied.We have also seem slippage for Romney in Michigan.
More troubling, Rasmussen shows a two point gain for Obama in job approval rising from 48% to 50% in the current poll.
All of these changes are, no doubt, related to hurricane Sandy.
Nobody really knows what the impact of hurricane Sandy will be on the election. Until its waves crashed into the New Jersey shore, the election was well in hand for the Romney campaign.
Coming off strong debate performances in which he debunked Obama’s negative attacks on him, the former Massachusetts governor was doing very well. Obama was reeling, unable to regain his footing, in search of a message, and bedeviled by questions about his increasingly obvious coverup of the Libyan attacks.
But after the storm? Who knows? We have never had a storm so close to a national election, much less one as close as this is.
Many a governor or mayor has recovered from political oblivion by actively running around his state seeming to coordinate storm relief. And just as many have fallen apart because of a failure to clean up promptly.
It may be that Obama’s visit to New Jersey and the high profile (figurative) kisses bestowed on him by nominal Republican Mayor Bloomberg of New York and real Republican Chris Christie of New Jersey might have helped him.
Perhaps he is erasing the image of a nit-picking, petulant president deep into negative charges against his opponent and replacing it with the image of an executive handling a tough situation for our country.
This race is not over yet! And with a media determined to re-elect Obama, we may see the president’s recovery continue unless we step up our own efforts to thwart it.
We are still likely to win. The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent and all the polling suggests we will be more successful than they will be at turning out our vote. But, early warning signs must be headed.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

What a waste of space..

And air..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

In Cincinnati the chant at the Romney rally was …

FOUR MORE DAYS! FOUR MORE DAYS!

Paul-Cincy on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

I third that.. great read AP :)

wolly4321 on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

You’ve got zero credibility you little cur. Slink off and curl up under the nearest rock, where you belong.

You made yourself clear. You think the loss of four Americans in Benghazi was amusing. You made no effort to apologize.

You’re a gutless little bit of offal and you don’t deserve to communicate with decent people.

thatsafactjack on November 2, 2012 at 10:40 PM

thebrokenrattle on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

B9 (Hexadecimal)

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 10:41 PM

That guy was at the rally and was just reporting what he saw. Sorry if a realistic appraisal of the situation bothers you.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:38 PM

you nervous, huh?? a 30,000 Romney crowd must give you cold chills down your spine, eh :-)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:41 PM

Steve Peoples ‏@sppeoples
Steady stream of people leaving Romney rally in the middle of his speech. Maybe it’s the cold, but energy level low in Ohio. #2012

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 PM

Yeah, Steve Peoples is a credible source. Some more of his top notch reporting noted here.

It would appear that Politico’s Juana Summers and the Associated Press’s Steve Peoples have an unusual and nearly identical problem with math. Yesterday, they could have and should have gone to the Secret Service for help. (Also, go to this subsequent post about how the pair also played a very odd duet in supposedly independently written stories, both attempting to portray Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan as avoiding the topic of Medicare on the campaign trail.)

Summers wrote that Ryan’s appearance yesterday at Miami University drew “several hundred supporters gathered for an outdoor rally.” Peoples claimed it was “hundreds of supporters.” After the jump, I will note several media outlets which reported that the crowd numbered in the “thousands” — including one which cited a Secret Service estimate of 5,500.

Oh and gumby…Obama has lost Ohio. He’s done.

HumpBot Salvation on November 2, 2012 at 10:41 PM

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