New Obama vid: Get out there, Pennsylvania

posted at 4:41 pm on November 2, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

Not too long ago, I doubt many would’ve thought that a video like this would have been necessary… but the times, they are a-changin,’ friends. In a world in which President Obama can’t get above 47 percent among the crunchy constituents of Oregon, a Romney win in the Keystone state — which elected a Republican governor in 2010, by the way — is more than possible. The state is squarely in the tossup category, and Team Romney has been moving in.

So, get out there and vote, Pennsylvanians! Volunteer! It’s a tight race and Team Obama needs you! Walk until you… er, can’t walk anymore? [Subtext: Gulp.]

Team Obama has deemed Romney’s recent bid for Pennsylvania to be a “desperate” move, but they can hardly be just flailing around in the electoral wilderness if Team Obama is nervously matching that move, can they? No, no; the post-debate wave of Mitt-mentum definitely swept through Pennsylvania, and now Team O is left trying to stem the flow. Via the WSJ:

Yet one of the surprises of the past month is a quietly competitive race for Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. …

Republicans in the collar counties had little reason for enthusiasm before the first debate. The morning after Denver, the party office in Bucks was overrun with people looking for Romney-Ryan lawn signs. The Romney message strategy echoes that of Sen. Toomey and other successful GOP candidates here two years ago: Talk about jobs and debt, appeal to bipartisanship, and avoid the subjects of abortion and religion as much as possible.

As it happens, Mr. Romney is the first Northeasterner to get the Republican nod since the Connecticut native Bush 41 in 1988. He looks and sounds like Republicans whom Pennsylvanians have voted for in the past. Texas swagger and Sarah Palin didn’t play well in Bucks. …

… Gov. Rendell sums up the mood among Democrats: “We’re nervous.”


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LOL You are not very good at statistics, are you?

Just for the sake of argument, let’s assume all the D+8 state polls are 100% correct. Hopenchange euphoria is here again, Dems will turnout in record numbers, etc. etc.

Even under those highly suspect circumstances, a simple Monte Carlo simulation show that Romney has a 10.5% chance to win the EC without OH. Statistically, that is a signficant chance.

http://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/264386854726557696/photo/1/large

And if the current state polls were just off by 1-2% in Romney’s favor? Romney would easily win 200+ electoral votes.

Norwegian on November 2, 2012 at 5:49 PM

You are not very good at statistics…or gambling. You are calculating the odds of winning each state independently of each other based upon the polls (this would be a typical stats question in a stats class). The major flaw is that the odds of winning each state are not independent! That is why you can not parlay the first half result in a footfall game with the final result of a football game (if you win the first half..you are more likely to win the whole game).. We are not rolling a dice every time on each state to pick a winner. In your world it is possible for Romney to win Minnesota and lose Missouri. In my world it is not possible.

ZippyZ on November 2, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Does anyone know when Gallup will release the next poll?

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 6:22 PM

We are not rolling a dice every time on each state to pick a winner. In your world it is possible for Romney to win Minnesota and lose Missouri. In my world it is not possible

This election will decide on thing above all else- is Nate Sliver a genius or biennial election year clown…

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:25 PM

No “Monster Storm” bounce today for barky and Romney closes the gap with women to 2 points…but PLENTY of hard to watch video of people suffering without food/water/gas/power or heat who were relying on help from the Photo-Op President who is now partying in Vegas while people suffer…AGAIN…
This will be ween ALL WEEKEND…
BYE-BYE hopenchange…

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 6:28 PM

ZippyZ on November 2, 2012 at 6:17 PM

LOL, you are even denser that I thought. Do you even know what a Monte Carlo simulation is?

My guess is that you will be quite disappointed on election day.

Norwegian on November 2, 2012 at 6:30 PM

No “Monster Storm” bounce today for barky and Romney closes the gap with women to 2 points…but PLENTY of hard to watch video of people suffering without food/water/gas/power or heat who were relying on help from the Photo-Op President who is now partying in Vegas while people suffer…AGAIN…
This will be seen ALL WEEKEND…
BYE-BYE hopenchange…

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Axelturd/Adolf released a bunch of trolls today. He must be paying them double this week, in desperado mode.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Axeldouche REALLY doesn’t want to shave that mustache…LOL

Strike Hornet on November 2, 2012 at 5:36 PM

The joke is going to be on us, because all that hair comes out of his nose and is just brushed to the sides.

slickwillie2001 on November 2, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Was four years not enough time? Well, America vanquished Nazi Germany and liberated Europe in three and a half years. Since Obama was elected there have been two Olympics and four Super Bowls – even four April Fools’ Days. Your five year-old-kindergartner is humming along in fourth grade today. Millions of college students have completed college in that span. And the president found plenty of time in his firm term to play over 100 rounds of golf, attend well over 200 fundraisers, and maintain his “regular” basketball game with pals.

The president had no time for the orphaned Jobs Council, but made time for Leno, Letterman, “The View” and Jon Stewart. Tragically, in those four long years, 1500 Americans also lost their lives in Afghanistan. Governor Romney can win next Tuesday if he makes this case. Barack Obama has had nearly 1400 days in office, and if he had done his job, those 200 weeks offered ample opportunity for the president to meet his challenges and rescue America.

In Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign, one of his favorite lines was observing that the symbol of Jimmy Carter’s presidency should be a finger pointing in the other direction. Blaming others didn’t work for Carter and won’t work for Obama. Thirty-two years later, reprising the Reagan template is something Governor Romney should consider.

Clint Eastwood said it so well: “When somebody does not do the job, we got to let them go.”

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:32 PM

“… Gov. Rendell sums up the mood among Democrats: “We’re nervous.”

We know…

… We can smell you.

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2012 at 6:13 PM

**Snort**

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Can We hope this happens?
L

letget on November 2, 2012 at 6:36 PM

This election will decide on thing above all else- is Nate Sliver a genius or biennial election year clown…

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:25 PM

Silver wasn’t really a “genius” in 2008, he was simply lucky. Hell, J. Fred Muggs could have made the picks that time and come out with a record identical to Nate’s.

But there’s a couple of other things this election will decide-how honest the various pollsters were, and also how honest those they polled were when they talked to them.

Del Dolemonte on November 2, 2012 at 6:39 PM

letget, hope springs eternal. I hope we have more than hope though. If the people are stupid enough to vote for such a miserable failure, they deserve full destruction.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:40 PM

FLOOD PENNSYLVANIA

Emails, links, articles, Facebook, Twitter, local news sites, you name it.

That new article today that showed 1 net job created but 75 people on food stamps in comparison is great. Weekly Standard.

War on coal is good also. Articles about Fracking and energy, black unemployment etc.

POUND POUND POUND………they do…..and WE MUST!!!!

PappyD61 on November 2, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Does anyone know when Gallup will release the next poll?

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 6:22 PM

Their website says they’re going to do Thursday(past)thru Sunday interviews for a final pre-election poll. Probably come out Sunday or Monday, my guess.

msupertas on November 2, 2012 at 6:48 PM

TEANAMI 2!!!!

PappyD61 on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

As a resident of PA I can tell you at the very least it will be close. IF Obama wins PA it will be by a slim margin, well within the MOF (margin of fraud) driven by the corrupt machine known as Philadelphia. I do think Democrats are well over-estimating the enthusiasm their voters have for Obama, but they might get enough turnout (real or fake) in Philly to make the difference.

goflyers on November 2, 2012 at 7:07 PM

ZippyZ on November 2, 2012 at 6:17 PM

lol…Did y’all get a username generator before the last open reg???

BigWyo on November 2, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Mitt-tanic ??
MUUWAHAHA.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MissyCarter/status/264478806650261504/photo/1

pambi on November 2, 2012 at 7:13 PM

As a resident of PA I can tell you at the very least it will be close. IF Obama wins PA it will be by a slim margin, well within the MOF (margin of fraud) driven by the corrupt machine known as Philadelphia. I do think Democrats are well over-estimating the enthusiasm their voters have for Obama, but they might get enough turnout (real or fake) in Philly to make the difference.

goflyers on November 2, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Remember in 2004 112% of the registered voters in Philadelphia voted. What a hoot, I remember we all laughed about it but back then we could cause Bush won. I’m not sure they have the organization after Sandy to put up that kind of fraud. Not sure there will be enough buses to take voters to polling station to polling station throughout the city.

Capitalist Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 7:15 PM

I watched my friends’ kids for a few hours yesterday so they could knock on doors, and I went to the call center for a couple of hours this afternoon. Planning on doing more Monday and Tuesday, and going to see Ryan on Saturday!!! C’mon PA, let’s go red!!

Eclectic on November 2, 2012 at 7:17 PM

GoFlyers – the Romney/McNalley guys in Harrisbrug today were saying they’ve spent a lot of money in Philly just trying to ensure safety of voters and trying to minimize fraud as much as possible. We’ll see what happens….

Eclectic on November 2, 2012 at 7:19 PM

ZippyZ on November 2, 2012 at 6:17 PM

Ever heard of probability distributions and are you aware of the limits of single-point estimate analysis. Obviously not.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 7:20 PM

“… Gov. Rendell sums up the mood among Democrats: “We’re nervous.”

We know…

… We can smell you.

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2012 at 6:13 PM

**Snort**

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Heh … yep, get out there, Pennsylvania! We GOPers here in the western portion of Penn’s Woods are doing everything we can to outhustle the Dems.

PatriotGal2257 on November 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Remember in 2004 112% of the registered voters in Philadelphia voted. What a hoot, I remember we all laughed about it but back then we could cause Bush won. I’m not sure they have the organization after Sandy to put up that kind of fraud. Not sure there will be enough buses to take voters to polling station to polling station throughout the city.

Capitalist Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Also, even though it was kind of ruined for this election, there are ads saying that we will be asked to provide ID, even though not having it will not prevent anyone from voting. Stupid, but maybe it will discourage some of the dumber fraudsters.

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/MissyCarter/status/264478806650261504/photo/1

pambi on November 2, 2012 at 7:13 PM

page not found

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Heh … yep, get out there, Pennsylvania! We GOPers here in the western portion of Penn’s Woods are doing everything we can to outhustle the Dems.

PatriotGal2257 on November 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I bribed someone with a pie.

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

As a resident of PA I can tell you at the very least it will be close. IF Obama wins PA it will be by a slim margin, well within the MOF (margin of fraud) driven by the corrupt machine known as Philadelphia. I do think Democrats are well over-estimating the enthusiasm their voters have for Obama, but they might get enough turnout (real or fake) in Philly to make the difference.

goflyers on November 2, 2012 at 7:07 PM

There’s also the Voter ID thing, too. Yes, Pennsylvanians are now not required to produce a photo ID to vote, but poll workers will still ask to see one, even as it is voluntary on the voter’s part. I think most people will still produce one even though they don’t have to. In any case, this issue is going to be revisited and I believe it will eventually be enacted.

I and my local GOP committee will be staffing our polling place all day, inside and outside, and some people are also going where they are needed, so we are ready to roll on Tuesday.

PatriotGal2257 on November 2, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I bribed someone with a pie.

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

LOL! What kind? Pumpkin? Pecan? Chocolate meringue? I would have been bribed easily! :D

PatriotGal2257 on November 2, 2012 at 7:28 PM

LOL! What kind? Pumpkin? Pecan? Chocolate meringue? I would have been bribed easily! :D

PatriotGal2257 on November 2, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Apple, sadly. It’s a lot more work, but every vote counts!

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 7:34 PM

page not found

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Oops, sorry John.
Pic of 50,000 + crowd for Romney in Ohio.
Will try to work that out.

pambi on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Creep ad

MeatHeadinCA on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Chris Moody ‏@Chris_Moody

Obama in Lima, Ohio: “Our ideas are responsible for reducing the deficit.”

Unbelievable.

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Weird .. I got page not found for just a couple minutes, but it comes up now … Maybe traffic ??
Idunno .. Lessee …

50,000 for Mitt today in Ohio ..

https://mobile.twitter.com/MissyCarter/status/264478806650261504/photo/1

pambi on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I giggled ;D

MORE!! MORRRREEE

Ugly on November 2, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Unbelievable.

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

At this point, what do they have to lose? LOL

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Unbelievable.

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Given his history, not really. I believe when he said Our ideas are responsible, he really, honestly believes the USA is a waffle, and ideas are maple syrup.

Ugly on November 2, 2012 at 8:05 PM

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