Michael Barone’s prediction: Romney 315, Obama 223

posted at 7:32 pm on November 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

I can’t find an electoral-vote prediction from him in 2008 but on October 30th of that year he acknowledged that an Obama victory was “likely but not quite certain.” Karl Rove did, however, make an EV prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200. This year Rove has Romney winning at least 279 electoral votes and Barone has him catching a red wave in the midwest and surfing all the way to 315.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Ohio, oh my:

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney…

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney…

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Ace’s resident poll-cruncher, ConArtCritic, puts Romney at between 271 and 277 EVs, which is in line with Rove. The argument against Barone is that, as of this writing, Romney isn’t ahead in a single independent poll tracked by RCP in any of the three states listed above. Rasmussen had him ahead by two in Ohio earlier this week but Ras now has that race 49-49. Apart from Susquehanna’s poll for the state GOP a few weeks ago, he’s never led in either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The argument for Barone is that all of this is predicated on certain turnout models that have Democrats maintaining just enough of an advantage to push O over the line. If those models are wrong and the electorate proves redder than expected, with independents breaking hard for Romney, then Mitt’s on his way — maybe not in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin but in Ohio and New Hampshire or Iowa, which is enough for 270.

But wait. Aren’t those Romney-loving independents really just Republicans who have dropped their party affiliation? Mitt’s just picking up elements of Bush’s 2004 voters who have since become disaffected enough with the GOP brand to drop it, right? Nope, says Dan McLaughlin. Lots of indies are true independents, and they’re going to pad Romney’s totals:

If it was true that success with independent voters was the result of defectors from the party, you would expect recent and longer-term history to show an inverse relationship between success with independents and partisan turnout – that is, you’d expect to see Republicans doing better with independents when GOP turnout is low, and Democrats doing better with independents when Democratic turnout is low. There is, in fact, some evidence that that was true before 1984, when a lot of independents and “Reagan Democrats” started self-identifying as Republicans. But since then, if you look at the presidential election years and the last two off-year Congressional elections (2006 and 2010), what you see in general is more like the opposite relationship: parties tend to do better with independents when they are turning out a lot of their own partisans

[A]s Ed Morrissey notes, a recent study shows voter regstration across 8 states that register voters by party (FL, NC, CO, NV, NM, IA, PA & NH; states like OH & VA don’t) shows a net 1.3% increase in Republican registration since 2008 and a net 2.5% decrease in Democratic registration, while independent registration has boomed, up 14.4%. You can read that registration data to show that being an independent is still a lot more popular choice than being a Republican these days; you can’t sensibly read it to show that the growth of independent voters is the result of a decreasing base of Republican voters, and you can’t possibly read it to show that the total share of Republicans and independents is holding steady or declining relative to the Democrats.

Even if you assume that many of these indies are Republicans in disguise, the fact remains that (a) there are a lot more of them out there this year than last time, (b) they’re not cannibalizing Republican registrations, and (c) most polling shows Romney winning them. O needs his midwestern Democrats to turn out in force to deal with them. If they don’t — and some of the early indications from Ohio and Iowa are promising — then the red wave Barone imagines isn’t far-fetched. And one more thing: It may be the case that Obama’s gotten a very small bounce the last few days from the aftermath of the hurricane. (That could explain the tie that Rasmussen’s seeing in Ohio.) If so, it’s almost certainly going to fade by this weekend, especially with stories of starving Staten Islanders trickling into big media sources like ABC. Tonight’s new ABC/WaPo tracker has Romney gaining a point since yesterday, in fact; he’s now back out to a 49/48 lead nationally. If I’m right about a fading bounce then you might see some of the midwestern state polls tighten a bit by Monday too.

Exit question: Which state is the subject of this sentence in the NYT? “But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.” Answer here. And they’re not alone.


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was he being facetious? the rig oil workers are the first ones to be evacuated/airlifted in case of hurricanes, tropical storms, etc…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:21 PM

Yes, I think his point was that Obama did not lift the bans on drilling there, so there are no oil rig workers in that area. I just thought it was funny because Obama is desperate to try to show his absurd policies in a positive light.

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Listening to John Bachelor on the radio on the way home tonight, I heard some interesting (and hopeful) support for PA going red. He had on two guests, women who were either pollsters or poll followers (not exactly sure which as I caught the show after he introduced them). Their basic analysis of PA (and they are in the state): its hopeful for Romney and tough for Obama, who is on all defense. According to them, Romney is running ahead of what McCain did in the west AND ahead of what Bush did in the east in 2004 (which were their strongest areas in their respective races). Also, Obama city advantage from 2008 has been wiped out to a wash. So, Romney is UP above where the two former Republican candidates were…and running neck and neck with Obama in the more populated areas. Could it be that PA is really leaning RED and NOT Blue this time around???

Highlar on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

Susquehanna Polling has Romney up 4 in PA

wargamer6 on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

LOL, Obama campaign and media sycophants sneering that the Romney crowd was onyl 18,000 and there was no energy in the crowd.

They just don’t get that we are no longer dependent on the liberal media for news.

Yeah, who are we gonna believe? Their lies or our eyes?

Jvette on November 2, 2012 at 10:36 PM

cane_loader on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 PM

As much as I agree with you, I am just curious who is going to lead the charge when Chief Justice is re-writing laws and Constitution as he seems fit.

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Wait…sneering that there was ONLY 18,000…when Obama can’t pull more than 4500 to a rally? LOLOLOLOL

Highlar on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 PM

I’ve worked at a mid major university in a mid western state for the last sixteen years. I open a building on campus and help set up the polling station there. I’m also in daily contact with the students about half white and half black. In 2008 when I was unlocking the building at 5:00am there were already black students sitting outside waiting for the polls to open at 6:00. It feels a lot different this time. No one is talking about the election. There’s nothing in the air anything close to the 2008 feeling. On the other hand there is a kind of grim determination atmosphere about the older workers to vote. And not for Obama. Not at all scientific but FWIW.

bluesdoc70 on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Could it be that PA is really leaning RED and NOT Blue this time around???

Highlar on November 2, 2012 at 10:35 PM

I live here and I have been saying this for months but no one believed me! In 2010, we took the Governorship and both state houses. We got rid of some dem House reps, etc. Natural gas fracking is a BFD here, and Obama’s EPA wants to put a stop to the only good thing, business wise, that has happened in this state since the steel mills started closing in the 70′s. Obama is shutting down 5 coal fired power plants in this area, and the estimated increase in our electric costs is X 8. That means my electric bill will go from $50 to $400!

I said that even democrats would not be willing to give up their livelihood to further Obama’s crazy green energy plans. It’s as simple as that.

Night Owl on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 PM

I am still hopeful Romney will take MI also. Depends how much cheating goes on,

Bullhead on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 PM

Devastating graphics: Under Obama Food Stamp Growth 75X That of Job Growth

slickwillie2001 on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 PM

Troll tears fall like rain and smell like a backed up sewer.

Barone is the best in the biz at what he does. A win is a win!

Still, don’t rely on this. The cheating cheaters have been cheating and will continue to cheat even after the polls close. Get yourself and as many you know (especially in swing states) to go vote Romney!!!

Rockshine on November 2, 2012 at 11:35 PM

I am still hopeful Romney will take MI also. Depends how much cheating goes on,

Bullhead on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 PM

Would be a great nail in the coffin if it happens. I hope that by the time FL, VA, PA and OH numbers are announced we are done and finished that night with any other state going red a nice bonus. Seems like WI, CO, IA and NV will finish the job.

Have a good cigar and wine ready.

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 11:50 PM

I don’t know if anyone’s mentioned this yet, but by far the biggest ad buyer in Wisconsin has been the NRA. More than R or O or Crossroads. Here in Northeast Wisconsin there certainly are far more Romney signs than Obama signs, and far fewer Obama signs than there ever were Barrett signs (Walker’s recall opponent). There are LOTS of gun owners in Wisconsin and I’m guessing they are concentrated in Northeast and Northwest WI. Whether they vote primarily as gun owners is one question, but the ads make it clear: one more liberal justice and kiss your 2nd Amendment goodbye.

xuyee on November 2, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Speaking of cheating….

http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/

As a former Illinois resident, I don’t think he will lose Illinois, but if his over all vote totals are that far down in his home state…..can Wisconsin or Pennsylvania really be that far out of reach?

LL

Lady Logician on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

Lady Logician on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

As an Illinois native myself, I agree.

NebCon on November 3, 2012 at 1:26 AM

Lady Logician on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

As an Illinois native myself, I agree.

NebCon on November 3, 2012 at 1:26 AM

Al Gore losing Tennessee is less of a shock but losing his home state cost him the election. If Gore carries Tennessee he didn’t need Florida.

Obama losing Illinois is an enourmous hill to climb given the city of Chicago, but the rest of the state could be in play. I don’t know the dynamics of Illinois.

itsspideyman on November 3, 2012 at 4:22 AM

Barone is too knowledgeable and too smart to be fooled by bogus polls. A R+5 turnout will produce a Romney landslide.

Basilsbest on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Every time I look at that RCP map I keep coming up with 322 for Romney.. After winning the recount in that Maine district, of course..

Al Hall on November 3, 2012 at 9:16 AM

Be confident.
Vote.
Get your friends and relatives to the polls.
Talk about why Romney will help our country.
And most important, ignore the trolls. They are here for one reason–to discourage you from doing all of the above.

VioletTiger on November 3, 2012 at 9:17 AM

It took 2 days for America to get angry about Katrina. Things are going straight to hell in NY, NJ. Obama’s little “leadership bounce” is about to fade.

mitchellvii on November 3, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I still say between 317-337. A couple of the states (not needed to win) will be close.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 9:28 AM

WHY DO I BELIEVE ROMNEY WILL WIN?

Many reasons but chief among them is that I refuse to believe that 51% of America’s voters are clinically insane.

mitchellvii on November 3, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Ras Saturday

R 48
O 48

Romney may win but he never closed the sale.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Early this week I predicted Romney 295 plus or minus 35 on a HotAir thread. At the time it was the most optimistic prediction I am aware of. Since then both Dick Morris and Barone have out done me.

burt on November 3, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Barone is too knowledgeable and too smart to be fooled by bogus polls. A R+5 turnout will produce a Romney landslide.

Basilsbest on November 3, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Yeah, I have sat and watched in amazement this man quote precinct after precinct of voting history. Obscure facts that he has a gift remembering and also has a gift adding meaning to. I took a lot of hope out of his prediction.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 9:40 AM

America is not a ’50/50′ Nation… it has been moving solidly, since after 2000, to becoming a 30/30/30/10 Nation, with that being D/R/I and the final 10% being the ‘low information, who knows if they stand for anything?’ voters. Worse, though, is the non-voting and non-participation rate which has crept up to the 50% mark during Presidential years.

When you take that 30/30/30/10 down by half, the actual percentage of adults who could legally vote but actually do vote is: 15/15/15/5. Even Weimar, in its worst of days, was able to get an 80% participation rate before the NSDAP came to power…

So where are the percentages that change and are worth going after? If the argument is that money is best spent amongst the voting electorate, then you are aiming for a slice of a declining pie.

The counter-argument is only being made by Tea Party members that the best place to gain superiority in elections is by education of the non-voting percentage (nearly 50% on Presidential years and well over 60% not voting on the off years) to vote. Why? Infuse more voters into any column and by adding more voters the other columns lose out proportionally to the larger numbers wanting to turn out. A simple 10% change in participation rate from 50% participation rate to 60% participation rate skews all columns to that one gaining the new voters via participation: it is a disproportional impact.

The Democrats have won on the inverse of that, the more you discourage outside your party, the better your party looks deal… right up to the point their own party members have become disaffected with them, leading to the rise of the Independent voter. Giving a negative message is counter-productive in the long run, apparently.

That is why it is critical… vital… to talk with friends over years about politics as an everyday matter… not force it in their faces like the Left, but just the asinine and counter-productive methods of government intrusion into liberty of free people… and help to sway them into a commitment to vote. The power of the discouraged, the ones who believe that voting ‘just encourages them’ and that their vote doesn’t matter have been LIED TO FOR DECADES into believing that. Yet if just one out of every 10 conservatives was able to pull just one person back into the voting pool through reason and persuasion, then the path of the Nation would change in a way that would be profound.

ajacksonian on November 3, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Youth unemployment rate: 12% overall; blacks 21%, Hispanics 13%

November 2, 2012

Pollster John Zogby told Secrets this week that support among younger voters aged 18-29 is down for President Obama and the new October unemployment rates announced Friday morning may explain why.

According to the government, the overall youth unemployment rate is 12 percent. But for younger black voters, a critical Obama support block, the rate is a staggering 21.4 percent. And for Hispanic youth voters it is 13.4 percent.

According to the youth-focused group Generation Opportunity, which pulled the youth figures out of the overall labor numbers, the picture might be worse.

“The declining labor force participation rate has created an additional 1.7 million young adults that are not counted as ‘unemployed’ by the U.S. Department of Labor because they are not in the labor force, meaning that those young people have given up looking for work due to the lack of jobs,” they said.

Generation Opportunity President Paul T. Conway, said “For the president, the failure to address young adult unemployment and to understand the negative impact on their hopes will, in retrospect, be seen as the reason why he lost support among millions of who once believed in his ability to affect lasting change.”

http://washingtonexaminer.com/youth-unemployment-rate-12-overall-blacks-21-hispanics-13/article/2512417#.UJUco45ECQI

mountainaires on November 3, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Barky – 223

The irony of him flaming out with the number that designates the caliber of some of his Fast and Furious semi-automatic rifles.

CorporatePiggy on November 3, 2012 at 9:41 AM

If the anti-Obama energy level I am seeing here in South Carolina is even half as high nationwide there is going to be a red wave bigger than 2010.I have spoken to many people who voted for Obama in 2008 and are adamant about getting rid of him now.Sorry Obama, you are not going to destroy this country!

redware on November 3, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Back on planet Earth…

POLLS DATE DEM REP MARGIN
Franklin & Marshall 10/28 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
Philadelphia Inquirer 10/25 49.0 43.0 Obama +6.0
Rasmussen 10/24 51.0 46.0 Obama +5.0
Gravis Marketing 10/21 48.0 45.0 Obama +3.0
Muhlenberg 10/21 50.0 45.0 Obama +5.0
Angus Reid 10/20 48.0 39.0 Obama +9.0
Pulse Opinion Research 10/15 48.0 44.0 Obama +4.0
Quinnipiac 10/14 50.0 46.0 Obama +4.0
Muhlenberg 10/14 49.0 45.0 Obama +4.0
PPP 10/14 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
Susquehanna 10/13 45.0 49.0 Romney +4.0
YouGov 10/11 51.0 44.0 Obama +7.0
Rasmussen 10/9 51.0 46.0 Obama +5.0
Philadelphia Inquirer 10/8 50.0 42.0 Obama +8.0
Pulse Opinion Research 10/8 47.0 45.0 Obama +2.0
Susquehanna * 10/6 47.0 46.0 Obama +1.0
Siena 10/5 43.0 40.0 Obama +3.0

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 9:46 AM

America is not a ’50/50′ Nation… it has been moving solidly, since after 2000, to becoming a 30/30/30/10 Nation, with that being D/R/I and the final 10% being the ‘low information, who knows if they stand for anything?’

It is if you listen to buy wonder Rove and the rest of the RINO establishment. Both parties, ie the real establishment benefit immensely from convincing us the nation is split 50/50. Tell me a better way to control the populace, the government, and the currency than to make the populace believe it is split down the middle?

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:49 AM

“Ras Saturday

R 48
O 48

Romney may win but he never closed the sale.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:38 AM”

There was a decent chance he would have if the storm hadn’t hit when it did.

Or if Christie hadn’t been so overly effusive in his praise for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Rasmussen went from D+2 sample yesterday to D+4 today to keep race a tie. Electorate will be R+3, not D+4.

mitchellvii on November 3, 2012 at 9:59 AM

I lived in cook county until 1939. At the time it was known for corruption and stealing elections even more than it is now. In the mean time the Chicago machine has been noted for electing JFK. These guys ae well practiced.

Re; Lady Logician on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

burt on November 3, 2012 at 10:00 AM

There was a decent chance he would have if the storm hadn’t hit when it did.

Or if Christie hadn’t been so overly effusive in his praise for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. The storm will make no difference what-so-ever. If you believe that and it does make a difference then the country is truly doomed. Romney would be way ahead now if when he had the chance(and it was handed to him on silver platter) had gone for the jugular in the second and third debates. He played it way to safe and failed to close the sale. However I still believe he’ll win, it’ll just be closer than it should have been.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 10:05 AM

“Ras Saturday

R 48
O 48

Romney may win but he never closed the sale.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 9:38 AM”

There was a decent chance he would have if the storm hadn’t hit when it did.

Or if Christie hadn’t been so overly effusive in his praise for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

gumpy still keeps his 0.0000% correct prediction streak alive.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Apologies up front, I need an open thread. I am hoping Barone is correct.

I have that sick feeling in my stomach, double what it was four years ago. “how could anyone want to re-elect this? The mess, the future, the new norm?” I have no idea unless the electorate has changed and I am hoping that is not the case.

I will be off FB until Wed. as my friend list has begun posting their undying support for Obama. I am 51, my friend list is not young children, so that in itself is scary. They have grandchildren like me.

We raised our children conservatively. My daughter is a teacher, a very good one, but the University and union took her. She has two children, and an Obama supporter. Needless to say, the two of shall not speak until after the election. My husband and I have tried our best but her and her husband have decided to raise my grandchildren differently. She is now pro union in all aspects, hates our Michigan governor because he had the audacity to make them pay 2 percent for their healthcare.

I will probably stay off the computer the next few days and pray. Good luck to all of us fighting the good fight. Thanks for letting me vent.

shar61 on November 3, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Preference Cascade.

bitsy on November 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Back on planet Earth…

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 9:46 AM

It all comes down to turn out. The majority of polls are based on a D+2 – D+4 or even more. Susquehanna is based on a higher R turnout (not quite sure what there model is)

Do I think that Pa will vote higher D than in 2008? It will not even be close. Will the R turnout be high enough to turn the state Red? I don’t know, but obviously the internals are showing that it is close enough for Romney to try to goose the turnout to make it happen.

Unfortunately I think MI is just the opposite. There is still enough of the brain dead union obamaphone mentality that it will likely stay blue. But it is interesting the Stabenow has over twice the margin in the Senate race that O has.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:16 AM

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Your site as I recall is quite the hatefest.

hawkdriver on November 3, 2012 at 10:19 AM

There was a decent chance he would have if the storm hadn’t hit when it did.

Or if Christie hadn’t been so overly effusive in his praise for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. The storm will make no difference what-so-ever. If you believe that and it does make a difference then the country is truly doomed. Romney would be way ahead now if when he had the chance(and it was handed to him on silver platter) had gone for the jugular in the second and third debates. He played it way to safe and failed to close the sale. However I still believe he’ll win, it’ll just be closer than it should have been.

bgibbs1000 on November 3, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Anytime you get the kind of great publicity that Obama got this past week, it makes a difference. Romney had a 2 pt lead in Rasmussen…now it’s all gone. Romney had a 3 pt lead in the ABC/Wash Post tracker…now down to 1. If Christie hadn’t made it a point to build up Obama, which he obviously did, things might have been different.

Nobody believes it, but I was told of some WI internals (on the R side) by somebody close to a popular WI radio host. Romney had been +1 in WI the day the storm hit. The last I heard it’s now Obama +2. Still close, but trending the wrong direction. Could the momentum go back to Romney in the last 3 days? Sure, but you would need nonstop coverage of the problems with the recovery effort. It’s getting some publicity, but nothing like Christie/Obama walking on the beach and the NJ Gov praising Obama to the Heavens.

I’ll be honest with you. I thought I might have to pay up on our bet. And now that it looks like Obama will win, I don’t even feel like taking the money, since it was just fate that bailed him out.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 10:21 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM
inklake on November 3, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Yeah, you guys must be right. No point in voting and certainly no point in digging up the dead to vote, rigging voting machines, or searching for extra ballots in the trunks of your cars. Let’s just call if for President Photo-Op

katablog.com on November 3, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I’ll be honest with you.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 10:21 AM

HAHAHAHAHAHA….that would be a first.

Gumpy…..nobody cares what you claim to know. Your correct prediction rate is 0.00000%

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I think all of these polls are incorrect. We shall see on Tuesday night. In Michigan, there very few signs to be found on either candidate, even in Detroit. Romney supporters don’t put them up because we are “racist”. Obama supporters don’t put them up because they are too embarrassed. Michigan is a hot bed for politics and yet this year nobody is talking. Not at the work place, not at public events, not even at wedding receptions. Obama voters will either not show up in huge mass, or vote for him in the privacy in the booth.

We must get out the vote, we need everybody. People are not being honest with the poll workers.

shar61 on November 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

The headlines that gumpy thinks helps his hero

Drivers Waiting For 6 Hours At Midtown Gas Station

‘Sons of Anarchy’ star: Storm aftermath ‘a lot worse than how it’s being portrayed by media’

Sandy death toll in US rises to 109; ‘there could be more,’ Bloomberg warns

Price gouging complaints in New Jersey

Staten Island Resident Confronts Chuck Schumer; ‘We Are Gonna Die!’

New York fuel “panic” grows even as ports open, reserves tapped

Utility workers pelted with eggs after Bridgeport, Conn. mayor blasts provider

Near-freezing temps add to Sandy misery; potential nor’easter looms

Staten Islanders On Sandy Response: We’ve Been Left FAR Behind

We Need Food, We Need Clothing’: Staten Island Residents Plead for Help 3 Days After Sandy

Stranded New Yorker: “People Are Defecating in the Hallways”

Christie Orders Odd-Even Rationing System For Filling Up Gas Tanks

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:36 AM

We must get out the vote, we need everybody. People are not being honest with the poll workers.

shar61 on November 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Will be voting in south Macomb Co. shortly afer 7 am on Tuesday….cannot wait.

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 10:37 AM

First!

Barky 2013

Bishop on November 3, 2012 at 10:41 AM

All those weak kneed libs from those swing states to deep blue states should take a look at what’s happening in NY, NJ, CT and RI right now and decide if they want to support a regime and leader who’s touting 171k new jobs in Oct as progress. Is this what you want for your future and your kids futures? A never ending enlargement of the fed govt who over promises and under delivers when times are desperate is what will get with 4 more years! Then there is the foreign policy thingy. You know, the CinC who has your back and leaves no one behind. No wonder gun sales are still going through the roof. Wish I’d bought stock in S&W.

Kissmygrits on November 3, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Nobody believes it, but I was told of some WI internals (on the R side) by somebody close to a popular WI radio host. Romney had been +1 in WI the day the storm hit. The last I heard it’s now Obama +2. Still close, but trending the wrong direction. Could the momentum go back to Romney in the last 3 days? Sure, but you would need nonstop coverage of the problems with the recovery effort. It’s getting some publicity, but nothing like Christie/Obama walking on the beach and the NJ Gov praising Obama to the Heavens.

Really?

And which popular WI radio host would that be?

What’s their station’s call letters?

What number are they on the dial?

What hours does their show run?

What’s their producer’s name(s)?

I’ll be more than happy to e-mail them today and ask them if your statements hold any water because the majority of the people of Wisconsin are not stupid enough to give Obama a bounce from the storm for…oh…I don’t know…ACTUALLY DOING HIS F’IN JOB for a change.

And he didn’t even really do that, did he? Because after his photo ops, he was on a plane HERE to campaign in Green Bay where he drew a measly 2,600 people while people out east are dumpster diving and crapping in hallways.

Phoenix7 on November 3, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Rasmussen went from D+2 sample yesterday to D+4 today to keep race a tie. Electorate will be R+3, not D+4.

mitchellvii on November 3, 2012 at 9:59 AM

D+4?

We’ll see.

TURNOUT BABY.

Bring the wave in HotAirians……TEANAMI 2!!

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 11:17 AM

I’ll be honest with you. I thought I might have to pay up on our bet. And now that it looks like Obama will win, I don’t even feel like taking the money, since it was just fate that bailed him out.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 10:21 AM

The next time little Johnny or Suzy says, “Mommy? Daddy? What does false bravado mean?” Send ‘em here.

Rational Thought on November 3, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Barone is wrong….Romney will get +350.

Conservative4Ever on November 3, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If you want to help but don’t know how…

Take emails/links/paste articles to various swing state websites/interest groups. Use Facebook, emails, Twitter, Instagram, Tumblr. Go to NPR’s website, other places that Independents might visit. If you have time and the ability offer to volunteer and go door to door. Make poster board signs and laminate them and stand on a street corner in a swing state. Make the signs POSITIVE and results oriented.

Something like:
“GAS PRICES HAVE DOUBLED SINCE JANUARY 2009″, “WE CAN DO BETTER”.

“WE’RE ALL PAYING $2,000 A YEAR MORE FOR GAS SINCE JANUARY 2009, We can do better.”

Keep it NOT ABOUT OBAMA (don’t use the politicians name it just draws fire your direction).

Let’s work it HotAirians. We can do this.

Have no regrets on the night of November 6th.

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 11:24 AM

And some of these things can be while you have 5 minutes in drive-thru or you’re waiting in the parking lot while you’re waiting on your spouse. While you’re waiting on your oil change to get done.

Let’s use the time we have.

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 11:25 AM

“Rasmussen went from D+2 sample yesterday to D+4 today to keep race a tie. Electorate will be R+3, not D+4.”

Where did you see that Ras went to D+4?? The internals and others I’ve read indicate a D+1 or D+2 today.

cdog0613 on November 3, 2012 at 11:29 AM

On the other hand there is a kind of grim determination atmosphere about the older workers to vote. And not for Obama. Not at all scientific but FWIW.

bluesdoc70 on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 PM

More scientific than you think…I find the signs, in the black neighborhood, the bumper stickers, the yard signs, business signs, maybe 10% of what they were the last two elections for Obama…but the undercurrent of absolute determination to vote for R/R is deep, the emotions run very deep…and early voting shows.

That’s why with the voting selection button of “All Republican, or All dem” is so critical…and how it may turn some Senate votes around.

I think the button for R/R will be pushed, than the “All” button will be pushed…and whomever has the highest turnout, and the most determined turnout, will win handily…and I think your “non-scientific” poll, is more accurate than you think.

right2bright on November 3, 2012 at 11:35 AM

inklake on November 3, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Meanwhile, on planet earth, where real voting has taken place…the Republican’s are turning out record numbers in early voting, all it takes is a few % to erase any lead the dems had in polls, and Republicans have already, in early voting, taken that away from the dems.

So go ahead, quote the polls, I will rely on the votes, the people who have actually voted…

right2bright on November 3, 2012 at 11:41 AM

There was a decent chance he would have if the storm hadn’t hit when it did.

Or if Christie hadn’t been so overly effusive in his praise for Obama.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

Get with it, Gumby. This is not Wednesday…the coverage is NO LONGER POSITIVE for Obama as gas lines are long, people are dumpster diving, and Obama’s on the campaign trail.

You’re frozen on Wednesday. It’s not Wednesday anymore. Obama took the bomber jacket off and is now droning on about voting for “revenge”. Any bump is already fading, and Tuesday is another three to four cycles away. Try to keep up!

Grace_is_sufficient on November 3, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Nobody believes it, but I was told of some WI internals (on the R side) by somebody close to a popular WI radio host. Romney had been +1 in WI the day the storm hit. The last I heard it’s now Obama +2. Still close, but trending the wrong direction. Could the momentum go back to Romney in the last 3 days? Sure, but you would need nonstop coverage of the problems with the recovery effort. It’s getting some publicity, but nothing like Christie/Obama walking on the beach and the NJ Gov praising Obama to the Heavens.

Really?

And which popular WI radio host would that be?

What’s their station’s call letters?

What number are they on the dial?

What hours does their show run?

What’s their producer’s name(s)?

I’ll be more than happy to e-mail them today and ask them if your statements hold any water because the majority of the people of Wisconsin are not stupid enough to give Obama a bounce from the storm for…oh…I don’t know…ACTUALLY DOING HIS F’IN JOB for a change.

And he didn’t even really do that, did he? Because after his photo ops, he was on a plane HERE to campaign in Green Bay where he drew a measly 2,600 people while people out east are dumpster diving and crapping in hallways.

Phoenix7 on November 3, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Too many folks on this site (gumby included) have a view that this election can be swung by late-breaking events (employment reports, hurricanes, etc.). The truth is that this cake was pretty much baked months ago, and it was finished on October 3. People have wanted to vote out Obama, because the country is in bad shape. This stagnant state of the country is why a record 70 million tuned in to watch the debate: Many of the viewers that night simply wanted to see for themselves whether Romney was a plausible alternative. Romney demonstrated that he is fully capable of being president, having a full measure of intelligence, judgment, compassion, and resolve need for the job. At that point, Obama was pretty much finished. Obama is what he is: A very vulnerable incumbent sitting at 47 percent in large parts of the country. In the end, most of the undecideds will go with Romney, and the ones who can’t bring themselves to vote Republican will stay home.

This election was always going to be close and, because it isn’t easy to take down an incumbent president. In following the polls every day, folks have a tendency to miss the forest for the trees. Most of the daily movement in these polls is meaningless noise. Yet, we try to imbue this noise with deeper meaning than it really possesses. No, the race in Wisconsin was not swung 3 points (!) in a couple days by a storm in New Jersey. At most, all that it did was change the subject for a couple of days. Nothing substantive has changed. The frustration and dissatisfaction with the president remains.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Have no regrets on the night of November 6th.

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Hubby and I have worked the phones and gone door to door. Hubby’s taking Monday off work to do whatever the Victory Center needs him to do.

We can do this!

Grace_is_sufficient on November 3, 2012 at 11:47 AM

The truth is that this cake was pretty much baked months ago, and it was finished on October 3.

If that’s true, then why is Romney’s status in all the trackers worse than before the hurricane hit?

Do you think it’s just natural swinging back to the incumbent?

Romney is even losing in the RCP national average and he had been ahead in that for a long time before the Frankenstorm came.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Obama losing Illinois is an enourmous hill to climb given the city of Chicago, but the rest of the state could be in play. I don’t know the dynamics of Illinois.

itsspideyman on November 3, 2012 at 4:22 AM

In 2010, the last statewide elections, Gov. Quinn won only four counties out of 102 in the state. One of which was Cook – home of Chicago. Now Senator Kirk won all the counties except for three – one of which was Kirk. Kirk outperformed the Republican nominee for Governor, Brady, in Cook County, so that and the other county that Kirk won that Quinn did helped put him into, as Dems like to say “Barack Obama’s senate seat” as if the jug-eared wonder boy owned the seat.

If Cook doesn’t come out – and I know some south side Dems that run voter turnout campaigns that have said that all else being equal, they won’t push the turnout for Obama – and the rest of the counties go solidly red, you could see Obama losing Illinois.

Just on a personal note, a week ago I had to drive my father-in-law to Midway airport – southwest Cook County. I didn’t see any Obama/Biden signs in the neighborhood surrounding the airport, and it is a very solid blue-collar Dem dominated area. Even in my own town, the Dem households mostly have signs out for the local or state level elected offices, but I haven’t seen Obama/Biden signs out with them.

I’ve got my fingers crossed, but I’m not holding my breath.

italianguy626 on November 3, 2012 at 12:00 PM

If that’s true, then why is Romney’s status in all the trackers worse than before the hurricane hit?

Do you think it’s just natural swinging back to the incumbent?

Romney is even losing in the RCP national average and he had been ahead in that for a long time before the Frankenstorm came.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Noise. Statistical noise. Romney was at about 50 percent plus or minus 2 percent, and he is still at about 50 percent plus or minus 2 percent. Obama is at about 47 percent percent plus or minus 2 percent, and there he remains today. The fact that Obama is narrowly ahead today in some polls doesn’t mean very much.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:04 PM

If that’s true, then why is Romney’s status in all the trackers worse than before the hurricane hit?

Do you think it’s just natural swinging back to the incumbent?

Romney is even losing in the RCP national average and he had been ahead in that for a long time before the Frankenstorm came.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Noise. Statistical noise. Romney was at about 50 percent plus or minus 2 percent, and he is still at about 50 percent plus or minus 2 percent. Obama is at about 47 percent percent plus or minus 2 percent, and there he remains today. The fact that Obama is narrowly ahead today in some polls doesn’t mean very much.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:04 PM

But wouldn’t statistical noise go in random directions in the trackers rather than all showing Romney’s lead disappearing? In a close race with most voters already decided, the movement won’t be massive, but a 1 or 2 pt bump can be decisive this late in the game.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:08 PM

Obama losing Illinois is an enourmous hill to climb given the city of Chicago, but the rest of the state could be in play. I don’t know the dynamics of Illinois.

itsspideyman on November 3, 2012 at 4:22 AM

I don’t expect that Romney will win any of these solid blue states (IL, CA, NY, etc.). However, we shouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Romney take significant bites out of Obama’s margins in those big states. If Obama won IL by 25 in ’08, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Romney within 12 points of Obama on Election Day. Will this help Romney in the Electoral College? No, however, it does demonstrate that dissatisfaction with Obama is broad-based across the country. It also could help Romney govern after the election…

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I am hoping someone can answer this for me. Missouri use to be a bell weather state. It only had 2 elections wrong right? Dewey and McCain. This whole election cycle, the media never mentioned Missouri, certainly not a bell weather. For years and years that’s all we heard.

Well Romney is up 12 now and Romney is up 6 in Florida. These are not small numbers. McCain Barkley beat Obama in 08 in Missouri and Obama won Florida. Now all of a sudden that does not matter?

Florida is lost for Obama and so is Missouri. These again are not small numbers.

Conservative4ev on November 3, 2012 at 12:14 PM

But wouldn’t statistical noise go in random directions in the trackers rather than all showing Romney’s lead disappearing? In a close race with most voters already decided, the movement won’t be massive, but a 1 or 2 pt bump can be decisive this late in the game.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:08 PM

How do you know that the variation in the polls hasn’t been random? Don’t forget that we are also looking at a very small number of polls.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:22 PM

But wouldn’t statistical noise go in random directions in the trackers rather than all showing Romney’s lead disappearing? In a close race with most voters already decided, the movement won’t be massive, but a 1 or 2 pt bump can be decisive this late in the game.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:08 PM

How do you know that the variation in the polls hasn’t been random? Don’t forget that we are also looking at a very small number of polls.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Oh, it could just be random noise. But the changes occurred after the hurricane hit and the Obama/Christie love affair was being highlighted. It would have helped if Gallup and IBD/Tipp had been able to continue their trackers. They come back on Monday. If Gallup shows an Obama bump, then it seems obvious that the hurricane changed the dynamic for good.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Well libs, if everyone’s made up their mind already, why are you touting late movement in Ras? Clearly that’s a transient hurricane bounce. Even then, O isn’t winning. 48% is a ceiling and is not enough to win. 51/48 R is still looking like a good prediction and is more than enough to win even with local considerations.

If the Philly papers are still showing pictures of disaster by Monday (Philly is essentially in NJ) its hard to believe they are going to be really juiced to turn out in droves even with your Black Panther thugs patrolling the streets. Do Rs feel bad about winning because of a hurricane? Not after what you pulled with Katrina.

xuyee on November 3, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Oh, it could just be random noise. But the changes occurred after the hurricane hit and the Obama/Christie love affair was being highlighted. It would have helped if Gallup and IBD/Tipp had been able to continue their trackers. They come back on Monday. If Gallup shows an Obama bump, then it seems obvious that the hurricane changed the dynamic for good.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:32 PM

You really need to get over the hurricane thing. Everyone else is long over it. That was four days ago. Today is today and the people Obama apparently “saved” are dumpster diving and using their hallways for bathrooms. Wake up!

Grace_is_sufficient on November 3, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Oh, it could just be random noise. But the changes occurred after the hurricane hit and the Obama/Christie love affair was being highlighted. It would have helped if Gallup and IBD/Tipp had been able to continue their trackers. They come back on Monday. If Gallup shows an Obama bump, then it seems obvious that the hurricane changed the dynamic for good.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 12:32 PM

If anything, it will just reinforce the current dynamic that has bee working against Obama. People will just ask themselves why Obama couldn’t have worked with Republicans earlier? Why did it take a natural disaster for him to work with Republicans? Was does this spirit of bipartisanship political opportunism? What happens after the crisis (and the election) passes? People aren’t going to change their minds about Obama because he rode around with Christie for a few hours; they have been displeased with Obama’s performance for some period of time.

ghostwriter on November 3, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Just tuned in to Glenn Beck and saw his efforts to raise $$ for hurricane victims. Apparently (no surprise) the devastation is being underplayed by the media while hyping both FEMA, Obamalama/ Napoliannabutt’s efforts there.

If any of you could help this is a great opportunity to help these people that are being overlooked.

Here’s the story with the link to give $$…..this is as important as campaign giving: http://www.glennbeck.com/2012/11/01/mercury-one-helps-coney-island-following-hurricane-sandy/

On Cavuto’s show this morning, he was saying the same thing via a Wall Street executive who out personally getting help/supplies to one of the NY islands on which he lives. He says that FEMA and Napoliannabutt just drive up and down the streets, taking notes……doing nothing. So, he’s began a personal campaign to help these people that aren’t being helped……Gov’t is failing it’s job. BIG SURPRISE!

IF OTHERS COULD PASS THIS LINK AROUND ON THIS SITE TO MAKE SURE EVERYONE HAS A CHANCE TO HELP THESE VICTIMS, YOU’D BE DOING GOD’S WORK.

avagreen on November 3, 2012 at 12:51 PM

BTW, he’s going through the churches in the area to give help.

avagreen on November 3, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I have a lot of respect for Michael Barone, and his personality is not the type to grab a headline by making a bold prediction he doesn’t truly believe. He’s no Dick Morris.

As an aside, I think it’s incredibly destructive when conservative “opinion leaders” make negative predictions like say Karl Rove did in 2008 where he said McCain was going to lose. It’s very selfish, and it destroy morale and GOTV efforts. As an example, a few hundred extra votes in Minnesota and we could have likely stopped ObamaCare.

I’m not saying that these people should lie and tell people just what they want to hear, but why not just say something like “it’s going to be tough to win” rather than “it’s over, they’re going to lose.”

I have an acquaintance that’s a normally staunch Republican that lived in a swing state, and he didn’t vote in 2008 because he said he knew it was “over”. That’s obviously a stupid way to look at things, but that kind of sentiment is out there.

BradTank on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM

Speaking of cheating….

http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/20/shock-poll-obama-could-lose-illinois/

As a former Illinois resident, I don’t think he will lose Illinois, but if his over all vote totals are that far down in his home state…..can Wisconsin or Pennsylvania really be that far out of reach?

LL

Lady Logician on November 3, 2012 at 12:24 AM

But that would be sweet revenge, um, love.

I will be casting my vote in IL for love of country.

davidk on November 3, 2012 at 1:24 PM

People will just ask themselves why Obama couldn’t have worked with Republicans earlier? Why did it take a natural disaster for him to work with Republicans?

Obama has 2 problems. First, the Tea Party has laid out a “no compromise” strategy that moderate Republicans (Lugar, Hatch, Snowe) have described as the main cause of gridlock, not Obama.

Second, Obama isn’t adept at building personal political relationships and the type of friendly camaraderie that Reagan and Clinton employed to draw Congressional leaders into a constructive dialogue. No doubt, this is a major flaw.

If you look at Romney’s time in Massachusetts, his record reaching across the aisle and building relationships wasn’t much better- with the notable exception of Romenycare, a mandate the oppositions already supported.

I don’t see great change in DC regardless of the winner.

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM

http://www.270towin.com/ has Romney at 272.

davidk on November 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM

How can anyone vote for Obama. I can’t understand in any way shape or form…the mind-set that would allow this to happen?

tomas on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

I don’t see great change in DC regardless of the winner.

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Then you clearly have no business commenting on politics.

Let’s leave Congress aside for a moment.

If you really think that there wouldn’t be changes if we manage to free our Executive Branch from the criminals, self-described socialists, left-wing radical academics, and Chicago thugs then you have not been paying attention for the last four years. For example, getting rid of career politicians at State and Defense would help immeasurably. Getting rid of the partisan whore at DHS even better. If you think that Obama being able to appoint more SCOTUS justices would not impact things then you truly are an idiot.

Now let’s factor in a Congress under GOP control. There is the possibility of undoing the worst parts of Obamacare. There is the possibility of putting Americans back to work. There is the possibility of real fiscal reform not just gutting DoD to pay for a bunch of unproductive dregs of society that are combing the nation this weekend in support of the rat-eared wonder who doesn’t think they should contribute one dime to society.

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Anytime you get the kind of great publicity that Obama got this past week, it makes a difference. Romney had a 2 pt lead in Rasmussen…now it’s all gone. Romney had a 3 pt lead in the ABC/Wash Post tracker…now down to 1. If Christie hadn’t made it a point to build up Obama, which he obviously did, things might have been different.

Nobody believes it, but I was told of some WI internals (on the R side) by somebody close to a popular WI radio host. Romney had been +1 in WI the day the storm hit. The last I heard it’s now Obama +2. Still close, but trending the wrong direction. Could the momentum go back to Romney in the last 3 days? Sure, but you would need nonstop coverage of the problems with the recovery effort. It’s getting some publicity, but nothing like Christie/Obama walking on the beach and the NJ Gov praising Obama to the Heavens.

I’ll be honest with you. I thought I might have to pay up on our bet. And now that it looks like Obama will win, I don’t even feel like taking the money, since it was just fate that bailed him out.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I live in VERY blue, southern California and ALL THREE of my local network affiliate tv stations led off BOTH the 5:00pm and 11:00pm newscast with HORRIBLE scenes of the suffering people in NY/NJ dumpster diving for food, waiting on long lines for water/food and gas and without power, cursing out FEMA and Senator Schumer…it was horrific…one woman crying and shouting “what are we? Is this not America? Where is the help for us?”
NOT what barky and axeldouche want people to see this weekend…

Strike Hornet on November 3, 2012 at 1:35 PM

“I’m not saying that these people should lie and tell people just what they want to hear, but why not just say something like “it’s going to be tough to win” rather than “it’s over, they’re going to lose.”

I have an acquaintance that’s a normally staunch Republican that lived in a swing state, and he didn’t vote in 2008 because he said he knew it was “over”. That’s obviously a stupid way to look at things, but that kind of sentiment is out there.

BradTank on November 3, 2012 at 1:13 PM”

One of repercussions of this election is that the polling analysts will be held accountable after Tuesday. Nate Silver will be a laughingstock if Romney wins and guys like Josh Jordan (numbersmuncher on twitter) and D.M. Hawkins will be national jokes and put back into obscurity if Obama wins.

It’s hard to find anyone that doesn’t come across as biased.

Michael Barone has been brutally honest in the past, but his electoral projection is so far divorced from reality, that you have to question his objectivity.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 1:41 PM

NOT what barky and axeldouche want people to see this weekend…

Strike Hornet on November 3, 2012 at 1:35 PM

If this were a Republican President, the MSM would not be so kind as they have been to the rat-eared wonder. We would be seeing dire predictions of hypothermia as the temps have dropped the last few days. We would be seeing more of the displaced and of the damaged neighborhood. And there would be moral outrage that it is taking so long to get FEMA off their asses and into action. Shep Smith might even have cried on camera the way he did in New Orleans.

That being said, the absurdity to think that a couple-hours of bromance with Christie was a game-changer in this election speaks of the desperation of the left. They never imagined themselves in a close election. The were certain that the rat-eared wonder would just have to shuck and jive and slow jam the news on late night television. Likeability, along with character assassination was presumably enough for reelection. It didn’t work out that way.

I’m hopeful for a Romney victory but will not be happy until the results are known.

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The incompetence of the Obama regime is stunning. Where is Obama with Sandy and Benghazi?

He came, he saw, he left behind.

claudius on November 3, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Michael Barone has been brutally honest in the past, but his electoral projection is so far divorced from reality, that you have to question his objectivity.

gumbyandpokey on November 3, 2012 at 1:41 PM

As opposed to the gumpy predictions that have been 0.0000% correct?

Animal60 on November 3, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Where is Obama with Sandy and Benghazi? He came, he saw, he left behind.

claudius on November 3, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Not exactly. He knew that Benghazi was a coordinated terrorist attack and yet he maintained a lie for weeks. And after a souless Rose Garden statement jetted off to a fundraiser in Vegas. He didn’t leave people behind in Libya, he didn’t even try to rescue them.

As to Sandy, he took a couple hours off the campaign to walk on a beach with Chris Christie. And again, there has been little effort to try and help. You can’t really leave behind those you don’t even try to help. And make no mistake, FEMA’s efforts have been pathetic. Mass disruption of America’s largest city is a worse-case scenerio and Big Sis showing up five days later and assuring the press that help is on its way is unacceptable. Bloomberg declaring that he didn’t want the National Guard involved because they carry guns is deplorable. And don’t get me started on New Jersey’s decision that only union workers can repair power lines.

Happy Nomad on November 3, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Photo: 30,000 Attend Romney Mega-Rally in Ohio

http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2012/11/03/photo-30000-attend-romney-mega-rally-in-ohio/

I did a lot of research to get this photo for you people

SparkPlug on November 3, 2012 at 2:27 PM

bayam on November 3, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Obama main problem is that he is an utterly incompetent socialist fool who should not be elected a dog catcher let alone the President of the most powerful nation in history…

mnjg on November 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

How can anyone vote for Obama. I can’t understand in any way shape or form…the mind-set that would allow this to happen?

tomas on November 3, 2012 at 1:30 PM

The same who would vote for every liberal socialist… Welfare people, union workers, left wing lunatics, limousine liberals, etc…

mnjg on November 3, 2012 at 2:35 PM

There are a lot of political forecasters out there.Some good and some not so good.I must say Michael Barone is one if not the best out there.He never looks threw rose colored glasses.Although he leans right he will always give the straight truth.Nobody knows more on a state by state election than Barone. So after reading Barone,s forecast i would only say .Be afraid Mr. Obama be very afraid.

logman1 on November 3, 2012 at 2:35 PM

SparkPlug on November 3, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Hey, Sparky! Thanks for all your hard work!

:p

INC on November 3, 2012 at 2:42 PM

logman1 on November 3, 2012 at 2:35 PM

I absolutely agree.

INC on November 3, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Let’s face it, the election now boils down to Ohio.Of the 1.5 million early Ohio votes cast-based on voting patterns by district-Romney MAY have an 80,000 vote lead.Hamilton County (Cincinnati area)-GOP’s best producer-which voted lightly for McCain is expected to vote in huge numbers for Romney. If true this would be a boost to help offset O’s huge Cleveland-area lead.

MaiDee on November 3, 2012 at 2:53 PM

29% of Pennsylvanians are Catholic. 51% are Protestant.

If Catholics along with other conservative christians vote in large numbers for Romney/Ryan it could make a difference.

Charity & Responsibility

What is Church teaching on the size of government? And what is the principle of subsidiarity?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZFRXp7vKZI&feature=autoplay&list=ULvECtrmRyVEA&playnext=2

workingclass artist on November 3, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Anyone lookng at Legal Insurrection? Just posted this interesting video of Black Chicagoans demonstrating against Obama:

http://legalinsurrection.com/2012/11/media-blackout-on-black-chicago-protesters-marching-against-obama/

And media still claim than Hussein is leading in polls?

riddick on November 3, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Meanwhile outside in the real world……

http://news.yahoo.com/obama-seems-early-voter-lead-key-states-122115656–election.html

American Pravda (Associated Liberal Press):

Obama seems to have early voter lead in key states

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Barack Obama heads toward Election Day with an apparent lead over Republican Mitt Romney among early voters in key states that could decide the election.

Obama’s advantage, however, isn’t as big as the one he had over John McCain four years ago, giving Romney’s campaign hope that the former Massachusetts governor can erase the gap when people vote on Tuesday.

About 25 million people already have voted in 34 states and the District of Columbia. No votes will be counted until Election Day but several battleground states are releasing the party affiliation of people who have voted early.

So far, Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — five states that could decide the election, if they voted the same way. Republicans have the edge in Colorado, which Obama won in 2008.

I need to get out more often apparently.

TEANAMI 2 baby…..work that turnout!!

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM

PappyD61 on November 3, 2012 at 3:10 PM

Numbers wise, Hussein can’t win. If you take his edge against McLaim in 2008 plus roughly 15% who since then switched from him to Romney, that is at least a 20% swing in Romney’s direction. And probably more if undecideds vote.

Numbers wise, unless there is a huge and systematic voter fraud to cover for at least 15% of that Romney edge, liberals are going down in flames.

330 EVs.

riddick on November 3, 2012 at 3:23 PM

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