Michael Barone’s prediction: Romney 315, Obama 223

posted at 7:32 pm on November 2, 2012 by Allahpundit

I can’t find an electoral-vote prediction from him in 2008 but on October 30th of that year he acknowledged that an Obama victory was “likely but not quite certain.” Karl Rove did, however, make an EV prediction: Obama 338, McCain 200. This year Rove has Romney winning at least 279 electoral votes and Barone has him catching a red wave in the midwest and surfing all the way to 315.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Ohio, oh my:

Ohio (18). The anti-Romney auto bailout ads have Obama running well enough among blue-collar voters for him to lead most polls. But many polls anticipate a more Democratic electorate than in 2008. Early voting tells another story, and so does the registration decline in Cleveland’s Cuyahoga County. In 2004, intensity among rural, small -town and evangelical voters, undetected by political reporters who don’t mix in such circles, produced a narrow Bush victory. I see that happening again. Romney…

Pennsylvania (20). Everyone would have picked Obama two weeks ago. I think higher turnout in pro-coal Western Pennsylvania and higher Republican percentages in the Philadelphia suburbs could produce a surprise. The Romney team evidently thinks so too. Their investment in TV time is too expensive to be a mere feint, and, as this is written, Romney is planning a Sunday event in Bucks County outside Philly. Wobbling on my limb, Romney…

Wisconsin (10). Recent polling is discouraging for Republicans. But Gov. Scott Walker handily survived the recall effort in June with a great organizational push. Democrats depend heavily on margins in inner-city Milwaukee (population down) and the Madison university community. But early voting is down in university towns in other states. The Obama campaign is prepared to turn out a big student vote, but you don’t see many Obama signs on campuses. Romney.

Ace’s resident poll-cruncher, ConArtCritic, puts Romney at between 271 and 277 EVs, which is in line with Rove. The argument against Barone is that, as of this writing, Romney isn’t ahead in a single independent poll tracked by RCP in any of the three states listed above. Rasmussen had him ahead by two in Ohio earlier this week but Ras now has that race 49-49. Apart from Susquehanna’s poll for the state GOP a few weeks ago, he’s never led in either Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. The argument for Barone is that all of this is predicated on certain turnout models that have Democrats maintaining just enough of an advantage to push O over the line. If those models are wrong and the electorate proves redder than expected, with independents breaking hard for Romney, then Mitt’s on his way — maybe not in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin but in Ohio and New Hampshire or Iowa, which is enough for 270.

But wait. Aren’t those Romney-loving independents really just Republicans who have dropped their party affiliation? Mitt’s just picking up elements of Bush’s 2004 voters who have since become disaffected enough with the GOP brand to drop it, right? Nope, says Dan McLaughlin. Lots of indies are true independents, and they’re going to pad Romney’s totals:

If it was true that success with independent voters was the result of defectors from the party, you would expect recent and longer-term history to show an inverse relationship between success with independents and partisan turnout – that is, you’d expect to see Republicans doing better with independents when GOP turnout is low, and Democrats doing better with independents when Democratic turnout is low. There is, in fact, some evidence that that was true before 1984, when a lot of independents and “Reagan Democrats” started self-identifying as Republicans. But since then, if you look at the presidential election years and the last two off-year Congressional elections (2006 and 2010), what you see in general is more like the opposite relationship: parties tend to do better with independents when they are turning out a lot of their own partisans

[A]s Ed Morrissey notes, a recent study shows voter regstration across 8 states that register voters by party (FL, NC, CO, NV, NM, IA, PA & NH; states like OH & VA don’t) shows a net 1.3% increase in Republican registration since 2008 and a net 2.5% decrease in Democratic registration, while independent registration has boomed, up 14.4%. You can read that registration data to show that being an independent is still a lot more popular choice than being a Republican these days; you can’t sensibly read it to show that the growth of independent voters is the result of a decreasing base of Republican voters, and you can’t possibly read it to show that the total share of Republicans and independents is holding steady or declining relative to the Democrats.

Even if you assume that many of these indies are Republicans in disguise, the fact remains that (a) there are a lot more of them out there this year than last time, (b) they’re not cannibalizing Republican registrations, and (c) most polling shows Romney winning them. O needs his midwestern Democrats to turn out in force to deal with them. If they don’t — and some of the early indications from Ohio and Iowa are promising — then the red wave Barone imagines isn’t far-fetched. And one more thing: It may be the case that Obama’s gotten a very small bounce the last few days from the aftermath of the hurricane. (That could explain the tie that Rasmussen’s seeing in Ohio.) If so, it’s almost certainly going to fade by this weekend, especially with stories of starving Staten Islanders trickling into big media sources like ABC. Tonight’s new ABC/WaPo tracker has Romney gaining a point since yesterday, in fact; he’s now back out to a 49/48 lead nationally. If I’m right about a fading bounce then you might see some of the midwestern state polls tighten a bit by Monday too.

Exit question: Which state is the subject of this sentence in the NYT? “But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.” Answer here. And they’re not alone.


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From your lips to God’s ears, MB…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

ditto

squint on November 2, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I did hear barone on hannity say Obama could still pull this out, he did go through state by state on the radio though

Conservative4ev on November 2, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Brave man.

I just got a fundraiser from Dick “Landslide” Morris worrying about a two point change after Sandy for our dear prez.

I never could imagine O winning with this bad economy.

IlikedAUH2O on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Woo Hoo!!!

Gumby…sit on it.

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

A victory that decisive would be too awesome for words. I’ll take any victory and be happy.

Cindy Munford on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I was surprised at Barone. He must feel very confident, but then he does know voting trends across the country. I think he understands them better than Rove.

Exit question: Which state is the subject of this sentence in the NYT?

Isn’t that PA?

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I’m shooting for: Romney 343 / obama 195

Pork-Chop on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

A L L

I N.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

This is really optimistic, but optimism is what we need. I’ll take it.

SAZMD on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

My prediction:
- The president will be reelected.
- In four years, red-state consumers will still be able to to get their fill of barbecue at a variety of establishments that aren’t low-quality and/or incompetently managed.
- Conservatives will continue to blame the president and “libruls” for their failures.
- The president and liberals will continue working for their continued well-being anyway.

Alpha_Male on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

YEEEHAAAAAW!!!

Barone is the man.

John the Libertarian on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Does anyone know when we can expect the new Gallup since they resumed polling?

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

dont believe it, its going to be a nailbitter!
I saw the other day in politico how in ohio, polls can be very dodgy and how in 2004, bush turned around 6% points in ohio to win the election.
victory is possible, but its probably going to be very tight!

nathor on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

*************** Alert **********************

Video: Romney and Ryan rally in Ohio

LIVE FEED

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Cindy Munford on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

It would certainly give him a mandate…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Barone also said the dems wouldn’t get a filibuster proof majority in the senate in 08.

Zaggs on November 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Does anyone know when we can expect the new Gallup since they resumed polling?

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Probably Monday the only problem with it is its going to be a weekend poll which usually leans rat

Conservative4ev on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

A victory that decisive would be too awesome for words. I’ll take any victory and be happy.

Cindy Munford on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

I just want it outside of recount territory.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

This is from Jim Geraghty’s Middle Cheese—a bit lower down than his Obi Wan:

Middle Cheese: Everybody’s Ending the Campaign in Blue States

Obama is in big trouble in Wisconsin. He is spending his last weekend in a state that last went Republican in the 1984 Reagan landslide.

Team Romney is going hard after Pennsylvania because both internal and public polling show significant movement toward Romney in recent days. Yesterday, Rep. Ryan and Sen. Marco Rubio drew large and enthusiastic crowds in Pennsylvania. On Sunday, Romney will hold a campaign rally in the Philadelphia suburbs. Who would have thought that Obama would spend the last days of the campaign defending a solidly blue state, while Romney makes a play for another one?

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Barone also said the dems wouldn’t get a filibuster proof majority in the senate in 08.

Zaggs on November 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Well if it weren’t for felons and fraud voting in MN – they wouldn’t have.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

I just want it outside of recount territory.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

I do as well.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

AP, are you gonna throw up a prediction thread Monday night?

NotCoach on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Does anyone know when we can expect the new Gallup since they resumed polling?

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Probably Monday the only problem with it is its going to be a weekend poll which usually leans rat

Conservative4ev on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Thanks Conservative. I was hoping we might see something before then.

buckichick1 on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

320 or bust!!

Lost in Jersey on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I too have seen and spurt of Romney yard signs in the cental part of the Shenandoah Valley of VA. They started popping up about a month ago, and now they’re everywhere. I saw a kid with an expensive SUV driving around with an INCOMPETENT bumper sticker with the Obama logo as the O. I worried about what might become of his vehicle.

scalleywag on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I want a win!
However not so great a win that Romney can’t keep expanding the map.
I’m thinking down the road already…

22044 on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I just hope so!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Today’s Rasmussen poll on Ohio is awful for Romney. Losing inde’s by 9. Poll must be significant +R to make things even at 48. Lose inde’s and Ohio is a loser.

Recent Marquette poll of Wisconsin is a real loser for Romney as well. Marquette hit the Scott recall election spot on.

None of this is good.

Carnac on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I still say R 285/253 O

nitzsche on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Did obi wan say anything yet?

Conservative4ev on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

I think that Real Clear Politics lost a lot of credibility this past year; they made the mistake of posting ridiculous polls from ridiculous sources. And Sean Trende became a hack.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Alpha_Male on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

My prediction:

This one will be nowhere to be found on November 7.

You make me laugh, Alfalfa_Male.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I can definitely see 315 as a minimum, and probably 330 as a maximum, and thought I was alone on this. But, I ain’t no Barone, he does his homework, often county by county, and I just operate off of gut feel.

Karl, whom I’ve known for years, always goes way conservative on his estimates — he was a campaign consultant for many years and, as a consultant, you always shoot low so your client is surprised when he exceeds it and never pissed off for your giving him a false sense of achievement.

But, WTH, I’ll take anything over 269, but for the good of the country and to put a lot of Obama’s lawyers out of work, 315 or above would be mighty nice.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

None of this is good.

Carnac on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

LOL.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

If Romney gets elected..
I won’t have to worry about putting gas in my car..
I won’t have to worry about paying my mortgage..

Electrongod on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Technically Barone was right about the Dems not getting a filibuster proof majority in the Senate in 2008. That didn’t happen til Arlen SPECTRE stabbed the GOP in the back in 2009.

Doughboy on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I would point out that Barone is using visual evidence and not polls to enhance what he thinks the turnout is. What is the case for Obama besides being a democrat? Nothing and a lot against. Rasmussen and Gallup found that a MAJORITY is callng themselves Republican and even Rasmussen ends up using D+2 or so. Obama’s strength is overrated and independents are NOt signiong up for more.

It may be close but we WILL win Ohio from what I read and that and other solid Romney swing states CO,VA,FL,NC is 275 EV’s. I think we are looking at all the others as ones we need when in fact they will only be the difference if we lose in Ohio which we won’t.

Conan on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Early voting in Hillsborough County… the lines are wrapping around the buildings… Like in 2010 when … Well, we all know how that turned out for Democrats.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Brave man.

I just got a fundraiser from Dick “Landslide” Morris worrying about a two point change after Sandy for our dear prez.

I never could imagine O winning with this bad economy.

IlikedAUH2O on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

You know it’s desperation time when HotAir starts headlining predictions from conservative pundits and renews attacks on the legitimacy of polls.

All is not well in Romneyland.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

*************** Alert **********************

Video: Romney and Ryan rally in Ohio

LIVE FEED

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

They’re on C-Span as well.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

All is not well in Romneyland.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

It’s okay. We’ll still love you on Nov 7th.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Did obi wan say anything yet?

Conservative4ev on November 2, 2012 at 7:41 PM

He didn’t have anything when I found that, but I haven’t been able to get back on NRO since then. They had problems with their server earlier this week because of Sandy. I thought that was fixed, so I don’t know what is up.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

But, WTH, I’ll take anything over 269, but for the good of the country and to put a lot of Obama’s lawyers out of work, 315 or above would be mighty nice.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Word has it Obama and Romney’s lawyers are flooding Minnesota. Oh dear Lord don’t let the election come down to MN. Not with Ritchie and Dayton in charge.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Video: Romney and Ryan rally in Ohio

LIVE FEED

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Jim Geraghty has a list of those who will be there.

Romney’s Friday Night Ohio Rally Features . . . Everyone. EVERYONE.

Have this many names ever been at any one rally before?

John McCain and his wife, Cindy;
former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice;
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;
Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Kansas Gov.
Sam Brownback; Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio),
Marco Rubio (Fla.),
John Thune (S.D.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and
Kelly Ayotte (N.H.);
former senator Norm Coleman (Minn.);
former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani;
former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge;
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus;
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah);
former congressman Artur Davis (Ala.);
Olympic champion speed skater Derek Parra;
Olympic champion figure skater Scott Hamilton;
champion golfer Jack Nicklaus;
as well as Tagg and Jen Romney, Matt and Laurie Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney and Craig and Mary Romney, and BFA Chairman James Irvine.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

It’s okay. We’ll still love you on Nov 7th.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Love may be stretching it a wee bit.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

My final prediction: Obama wins, 281-257. My only deviation from the RCP no tossups map is giving Colorado to Romney, even though most of the recent polling shows a slight Obama edge there. Call it a gut instinct.

Stoic Patriot on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

LOLZ!

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 7:48 PM

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

They’re on C-Span as well.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

hillbillyjim:

Exellent,Jindal is taking Hopey to town
on his failures!:)

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:48 PM

I was in a charity board meeting most of today. During a slow part, the Democrat sitting next to me had his iPad open to Nate Silver’s site and was sharing it with the guy sitting next to him. It was all I could do to resist yelling at them that Mitt’s gonna win and their buddy Nate is going to look the fool Tues. But I’m not getting cocky or anything.

juliesa on November 2, 2012 at 7:48 PM

It’s okay. We’ll still love you on Nov 7th.

Key West Reader on November 2, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Love, pity, whatever.

NotCoach on November 2, 2012 at 7:49 PM

The president and liberals will continue working for their continued well-being anyway.

Alpha_Male on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Like he did for our people in Benghazi.

a capella on November 2, 2012 at 7:49 PM

A victory that decisive would be too awesome for words. I’ll take any victory and be happy.

Cindy Munford on November 2, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Amen. And I have to add that, this is Michael Barrone, not Dick Morris, which is YUUGE!

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I think when the president loses Biden is going to soil himself and the president will cry like a child.

scalleywag on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Shorter Barone: Axelrod’s losing his mustache

Mark1971 on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

And overnight the race here became the most expensive test yet of whether Republicans and their armies of cash-flush outside groups could unsettle the race at the last minute.

#10 of the libby’s reasons ZERO lost:
Romney bought the election.

OkieDoc on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

You know it’s desperation time when HotAir starts headlining predictions from conservative pundits and renews attacks on the legitimacy of polls.

All is not well in Romneyland.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Cuz’, you know, the Wisconsin and Mass. governors’ races were predicted to a fare-thee-well by the pollsters.

Gawdamighty, bam-bam.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

356/182 EV 55/44 popular We get a president that plays for our team!

jukin3 on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Sean Trende ‏@SeanTrende

Our close-to-final house ratings are out. Projection is 241-242 Republican seats. Almost no change. http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

Sean Davis Sean Davis ‏@seanmdav

@SeanTrende Doesn’t really jive with a massive (D+8) Democratic turnout advantage, does it?

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 7:50 PM

Video: Romney and Ryan rally in Ohio

LIVE FEED

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Thanks canopfor…

… I hear the crowd is around 25,000.

Bobby J. is dicing up Pantload pretty good right now…

… I think the “Press” is hiding the truth.

It will be beyond any recount or lawyer challenge…!

Seven Percent Solution on November 2, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Sweeet!

I hadn’t seen that Dan McLaughlin piece. The “Independents are just sour Republicans” narrative was a theory I was sympathetic to. Dan’s reasoning seems insurmountable.

It’s like Dan said; there is simply no evidence outside the polls that show a 2008 electorate. It looks like a 2010 electorate.

hisfrogness on November 2, 2012 at 7:51 PM

I’ve always liked Michael Barone… Bigger MANCRUSH after this prediction!!

Khun Joe on November 2, 2012 at 7:51 PM

- The president and liberals will continue working for their continued well-being anyway.

Alpha_Male on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

You are a fool, plain and simple.

Count to 10 on November 2, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Michael Barone is the longtime editor of the Almanac of American Politics. He is the past master. He can tell you how each county in Ohio voted, with percentages, in the last twelve elections.

He also is cautious and doesn’t go out on a limb readily.

I was expecting him to come out for RR soon, but this is a stronger prediction than even I expected. A big deal.

Missy on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Ace’s resident poll-cruncher, ConArtCritic, puts Romney at between 271 and 277 EVs,

Well HotAir’s resident poll-troll cruncher, PokeyandGumby puts Obama at between 472 and 614 EVs.

portlandon on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

(I’ll repost this here…)

Here’s something for everybody (who’s inclined) to put on their computer for the next 4 days…

http://cdn.ricochet.com/var/ezwebin_site/storage/images/media/images/keepcalm/2968766-1-eng-US/keepcalm_lightbox.png

See you at the finish line.

H/T: AoS/Ricochet

CPT. Charles on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Have this many names ever been at any one rally before?

John McCain and his wife, Cindy;
former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice;
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;
Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Kansas Gov.
Sam Brownback; Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio),
Marco Rubio (Fla.),
John Thune (S.D.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and
Kelly Ayotte (N.H.);
former senator Norm Coleman (Minn.);
former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani;
former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge;
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus;
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah);
former congressman Artur Davis (Ala.);
Olympic champion speed skater Derek Parra;
Olympic champion figure skater Scott Hamilton;
champion golfer Jack Nicklaus;
as well as Tagg and Jen Romney, Matt and Laurie Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney and Craig and Mary Romney, and BFA Chairman James Irvine.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Oh PLEASE. PLEASE let this pre-empt Bill O’Reilly. That’s the most awesome line up I’ve ever seen

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

John McCain and his wife, Cindy;
former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice;
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;
Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Kansas Gov.
Sam Brownback; Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio),
Marco Rubio (Fla.),
John Thune (S.D.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and
Kelly Ayotte (N.H.);
former senator Norm Coleman (Minn.);
former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani;
former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge;
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus;
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah);
former congressman Artur Davis (Ala.);
Olympic champion speed skater Derek Parra;
Olympic champion figure skater Scott Hamilton;
champion golfer Jack Nicklaus;
as well as Tagg and Jen Romney, Matt and Laurie Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney and Craig and Mary Romney, and BFA Chairman James Irvine.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

INC:

I was just thinking to myself,wow,Arturo,Jindal,
this shin-ding is stacked!:)

Oh,thank–you for the roster,er,list—:)

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I hope from the bottom of my heart that next week at this time we can say “President-Elect” Romney.

PERR?

Just doesn’t have the same ring as PEBO. :)

Bob's Kid on November 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Have this many names ever been at any one rally before?

John McCain and his wife, Cindy;
former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice;
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal;
Texas Gov. Rick Perry; Kansas Gov.
Sam Brownback; Sens. Rob Portman (Ohio),
Marco Rubio (Fla.),
John Thune (S.D.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.) and
Kelly Ayotte (N.H.);
former senator Norm Coleman (Minn.);
former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani;
former Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge;
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus;
Rep. Jason Chaffetz (Utah);
former congressman Artur Davis (Ala.);
Olympic champion speed skater Derek Parra;
Olympic champion figure skater Scott Hamilton;
champion golfer Jack Nicklaus;
as well as Tagg and Jen Romney, Matt and Laurie Romney, Josh Romney, Ben Romney and Craig and Mary Romney, and BFA Chairman James Irvine.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I’m with you. How many democrat party members in good standing are with Obama at the many and varied college campuses around the nation?

ZERO!

“The difference is, that this time you have me”
B. Hussein Obama
Economic Super Genius

jukin3 on November 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Barone predicted an Obama victory in ’08. So did Karl Rove, and it’s heartening that both are predicting otherwise this time.

changer1701 on November 2, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Holy Cow, Batman! The GOP is having a blowout sized rally in Ohio…

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Oh PLEASE. PLEASE let this pre-empt Bill O’Reilly. That’s the most awesome line up I’ve ever seen

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Someone above said it was on C-Span.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Oh,thank–you for the roster,er,list—:)

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Ha ha! You’re welcome.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Oh PLEASE. PLEASE let this pre-empt Bill O’Reilly. That’s the most awesome line up I’ve ever seen

BettyRuth on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Full court press. Something’s up!

a capella on November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM

The closer we get, the more worried I become. I just hope we know the outcome that night or when I wake up for work the next day.

ThePrez on November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I am worried that if Romney wins, everyone will think that America dodged the bullet, without realizing that the next one is sighted in and coming.

The fact that there is discussion that the electiuon will be close should terrify patriots.

A president who has done such an execrable job, across the board, should be defeated in a landslide of historic proportions, in a wise, thinking country.

If Romney gets in, the only way to truly right the ship, instead of Romney’s providing a brief respite, is to prosecute the media moguls under RICO statues, or to charge them wth treason, and lawfully execute them.

We have an active cancer in America that is threatening the very survival of the natrion, and its name is the MSM-Hollywood Nexus.

These people must be stopped, using all means, by stricture of law, including charges of treason and public execution.

If Romney wins, and this is not done, then the corrosive influence that is keeping 0bama close WILL sink this country.

I do not have faith that the market will settle this. The modern media is uniquely seductive, and must be actively curbed when it conspires to overturn the electoral functions of a democratic republic, won by the blood of our forefathers.

cane_loader on November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Field Marshall Obama, decorated hero of the Benghazi Massacre is baring his teeth like a Beta-Cur. He knows it is over.

kenny on November 2, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I’m here in Ohio. Obama had a couple hundred today in Springfield. Mitt’s got 30K, what a difference. I think Obama knows he’s toast.

Ta111 on November 2, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Michael Barone knows more about every voting district in the country than any other pundit. If he says RR 315 EV, I’ll go with that.

DrStock on November 2, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Why watch O’Reilley when we can watch this rally?

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Word has it Obama and Romney’s lawyers are flooding Minnesota. Oh dear Lord don’t let the election come down to MN. Not with Ritchie and Dayton in charge.

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Oh, there all over the swing states, and that’s why we’ve got to get to 315 or so, so that the post-election shenanigans will have no moment.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Barone also said the dems wouldn’t get a filibuster proof majority in the senate in 08.

Zaggs on November 2, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Arlen Specter switched parties in 2009, giving the Dems 60.

Revenant on November 2, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Anyone who is inclined to vote for Barry Ojesus, let me suggest one thing:

Before you cast your ballot (into the abyss), call one of your local county supervisors or city councilmen, and ask them how much money they are in the hole now, and where were their (and your) county/city finances four years ago.

It will absolutely blow your mind, if the financial situation ofyour home county/city is anything like the America-wide average.

We’re all effing broke. Thanks, Uncle Sugar.

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 8:00 PM

To clarify, I am not advocating legal execution as a first resort.

But I do think that if the MSM cannot be reformed, and the usurping of the American political mind continues, I do advocate treason charges for conspiring to abuse the freedom of the press, for the purposes of subverting democracy, and charges of treason, with the severest of punishments.

cane_loader on November 2, 2012 at 8:00 PM

NBC is about to run a special on H Sandy titled “HURRICANE SANDY: COMING TOGETHER”

I bet they spin this so hard for ZERO that another Hurricane will form off the East coat.
What shall we name it?

OkieDoc on November 2, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Here is my take
https://dl.dropbox.com/u/38895486/2012map.PNG

esnap on November 2, 2012 at 8:02 PM

And one more thing: It may be the case that Obama’s gotten a very small bounce the last few days from the aftermath of the hurricane.

Maybe in today’s poll, but that’ll be a solid negative very soon. If Barone’s number turns out to be right, it may be because Obama strutted around politicizing the disaster and then booked to Vegas while conditions got even worse.

forest on November 2, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Here’s something for everybody (who’s inclined) to put on their computer for the next 4 days…

http://cdn.ricochet.com/var/ezwebin_site/storage/images/media/images/keepcalm/2968766-1-eng-US/keepcalm_lightbox.png

See you at the finish line.

H/T: AoS/Ricochet

CPT. Charles on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

That is good.

INC on November 2, 2012 at 8:04 PM

DEFINITELY ON CSPAN! What a crowd, something else!

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 8:04 PM

NBC is about to run a special on H Sandy titled “HURRICANE SANDY: COMING TOGETHER”

I bet they spin this so hard for ZERO that another Hurricane will form off the East coat.
What shall we name it?

OkieDoc on November 2, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I’m truly surprised that they’re not calling it: “HURRICANE SANDY — LEANING FORWARD!”

hillbillyjim on November 2, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Allah, you might want to do an open thread on this rally in Ohio, on CSPAN. It’s impressive to say the least.

TXUS on November 2, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Obama is now running ads in the Philly market with Colin Powell. Oh, yeah, that’ll swing the swing suburbs.

Wethal on November 2, 2012 at 8:06 PM

We take:

PA. NH. VA. NC. CO. OH. IA. MN.

blatantblue on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

I’ll eat my own lips if Obama pulls it off. Which is to say, I’ll never eat my own lips.

Ugly on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Barone predicted an Obama victory in ’08. So did Karl Rove, and it’s heartening that both are predicting otherwise this time.

Barone leans slightly to the right, but he’s nobody’s flack. The man has forgotten more about Congressional districts and polling than most people, or pollsters for that matter,will ever know.

Romney is the 45th President of the United States. Book it.

jrgdds on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Speaking of Ohio…******Political Propaghanda Polling Alert***

CNN Political Ticker ‏@PoliticalTicker

CNN Poll: Obama 50% – Romney 47% in Ohio http://bit.ly/TjAYH2

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 8:08 PM

PA. NH. VA. NC. CO. OH. IA. MN.

blatantblue on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

I wish we could add MI to that list =’[

Ugly on November 2, 2012 at 8:08 PM

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