Mia Love leads Matheson by 12

posted at 12:41 pm on November 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

With the presidential race so close, we haven’t had much of an opportunity to pay attention to Congressional races — but the race in Utah’s 4th District deserves a look today.  Mia Love looks poised to become the first African-American woman elected to Congress as a Republican, according to a new Mason-Dixon poll in her district, which puts her up by twelve points over six-term incumbent Jim Matheson (via Ladies Logic):

Matheson trails Republican challenger Mia Love 52 percent to 40 percent in a new poll conducted for The Salt Lake Tribune, a large margin in a race where, even a few days ago, both campaigns were predicting a tight finish. …

The Tribune poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, found that the coalition of Democrats, independents, moderate Republicans and women that Matheson has united in past elections is failing to coalesce this time around, with just 9 percent of Republicans crossing over to support him.

That’s the key to this election.  The 2nd District has a Cook rating of R+15 [see update], which suggests that Matheson has benefited from an ability to look moderate, combined with the blessing of not having to face a charismatic and inspiring challenger.  Even the 12-point lead in this poll slightly underperforms the Republican advantage in this district, but that’s within the MoE and probably has more to do with Matheson’s status as an incumbent.  The Salt Lake Tribune also notes, though, that Love has done what other challengers couldn’t — match Matheson’s spending.

Matheson claims that his own poll shows him leading Love by two, and that 19% of Republicans support him.  He told the Tribune that he would release the poll “to all of his supporters,” which would be the first time Matheson made any of his internal polls public.  That sounds like a desperate attempt to mitigate the perception that his is a lost cause and not worth the effort on Election Day.  In a presidential election that kind of surrender seems rather unlikely — people will want to vote for President regardless of how Matheson’s doing — but the concern is still quite telling.

Update: I had forgotten that the 4th is a new district, and that the 2nd was Matheson’s old district.  There are no Cook Report stats for UT-04 that I could find.


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Comment pages: 1 2

As it is, you are someone we should all avoid. Thanks for that.

kim roy on November 2, 2012 at 1:53 PM

I wish Herman Cain much success in all his non-political endeavors. As for you, FOAD.

Archivarix on November 2, 2012 at 2:02 PM

You mad, bro?

You are still a stereotyping, generalizing racist.

SMOOOOCHIES!

kim roy on November 2, 2012 at 2:22 PM

Mia Love for 100 Alex.

Bmore on November 2, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Mia Love for 101 Alex.

Bmore on November 2, 2012 at 2:38 PM

By leaving his safe seat in the 2nd for Jason Chaffetz backyard (which is essentially what the new 4thseason district is) Jim Matheson may have set the Utah Democrats back at least 203 years….more if they continue to let the call Progressives run the show.

LL

Lady Logician on November 2, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Here is a link to Mia Love’s campaign website where you can learn more about her and be inspired:

http://www.love4utah.com/

Go Mia!

wren on November 2, 2012 at 2:55 PM

Think Love’s coattails are strong enough to help Mittens?

socalcon on November 2, 2012 at 3:42 PM

I had forgotten that the 4th is a new district, and that the 2nd was Matheson’s old district. There are no Cook Report stats for UT-04 that I could find.

Ed, that’s once!

A couple was celebrating their golden wedding anniversary. Their domestic tranquility had long been the talk of the town, and on this special occasion, a local newspaper reporter paid them a visit. He inquired as to the secret of their long and happy marriage.

“Well,” explained the husband, “it all goes back to our honeymoon. We visited the Grand Canyon and took a trip down to the bottom of the canyon by pack mule.”

“We hadn’t gone too far when my wife’s mule stumbled. My wife quietly said ‘That’s once.’ We proceeded a little farther when the mule stumbled again. Once more my wife quietly spoke: ‘That’s twice.’ We hadn’t gone a half-mile when the mule stumbled a third time. My wife promptly removed a revolver from her purse, hopped down off the beast, and shot the mule dead.”

“I started to protest over her treatment of the mule when she looked at me and quietly said, ‘That’s once.’

socalcon on November 2, 2012 at 3:47 PM

The one bright spot in this election.

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Mia Love looks poised to become the first African-American woman elected to Congress as a Republican,

Awesome!

Dr. ZhivBlago on November 2, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Think Love’s coattails are strong enough to help Mittens?

socalcon on November 2, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Dude – It’s Utah. Mittens doesn’t need any help here. Oh and another thing….it sounds like turn out (for early voting at least) is going gangbusters here this year. It’s good for races up and down the ticket.

LL

Lady Logician on November 2, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Matheson’s ads are all attacking Love for being “not the Utah way.” But the Utah way is conservative, and he’s joined at the hip to Obama.

flataffect on November 2, 2012 at 8:56 PM

mia love lost

Pragmatic on November 7, 2012 at 6:48 AM

Comment pages: 1 2