Jobs report: 171K jobs added, jobless rate rises to 7.9%

posted at 8:31 am on November 2, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Looks like a wash from today’s jobs report. The US economy added 171,000 jobs, slightly more than expected, but the jobless rate rose to 7.9% as the household survey adjusted from last month’s outlier. The October survey had 269,000 fewer part-time workers, almost half of the additional 582,000 added in September:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 171,000 in October, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 7.9 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment rose in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. …

Both the unemployment rate (7.9 percent) and the number of unemployed persons (12.3 million) were essentially unchanged in October, following declines in September. …

The civilian labor force rose by 578,000 to 155.6 million in October, and the labor force participation rate edged up to 63.8 percent. Total employment rose by 410,000 over the month. The employment-population ratio was essentially unchanged at 58.8 percent, following an increase of 0.4 percentage point in September.

Economists expected an additional 125,000 jobs in today’s report, so this did beat expectations.  Otherwise, it’s not terribly remarkable, and the bump upward in the jobless rate more or less counters whatever positive impact the jobs addition has.  This is not enough to argue for a sustained jobs recovery or the beginning of a growth cycle; we saw better numbers in the first quarter, and those didn’t get sustained, either.

The U-6 number didn’t move much from the previous month.  It was 14.7%, and it’s now 14.6%.  When Obama took office, it was 14.2%; six months ago, it was 14.5%.  The overall unemployment situation isn’t improving significantly at all.  The number of people not in the workforce declined by 269,000, but at 88.341 million, it’s still higher than every month this year before August, and it’s 2.28 million higher than it was a year ago.

The participation rates are similarly depressed.  The civilian population participation rate, which measures workforce participation in relation to population size, moved up from 63.6% o 63.8%.  At the beginning of the Obama term, that was 65.7%, and it was 65.7% at the start of the Obama recovery in June 2009.  The employment-population rate, which measures employment in relation to population size, rose one-tenth of a point to 58.8%.  That was 60.6% at the start of Obama’s term, and was 59.4% at the start of the Obama recovery.  We’re still in an unemployment trough, and 171,000 jobs isn’t nearly enough to make up that kind of ground, not even on a consistent basis, which we’ve hardly seen.

CNBC noted those metrics in an oddly positive light:

Economists had been expecting the report to show a net of 125,000 new jobs and a steadying of the unemployment rate at 7.8 percent. Nomura Securities predicted the rate would fall to 7.7 percent, but most expected no change.

Most of the job creation came in the services sector, with a gain of 150,000, while government employment rolls saw a collective decrease of 13,000.

A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those employed part-time who would rather work full-time ticked lower to 14.6 percent.

The labor force participation rate, a key metric that measures those working and looking for jobs, edged higher to 63.8 percent after wallowing around 31-year lows for the past several months.

Those numbers are still “wallowing around 31-year lows.”

James Pethokoukis puts it in perspective:

https://twitter.com/JimPethokoukis/status/264349483637297152

If we were seeing a late surge in real jobs growth — say, 250K+ per month for six months, the 7.9% jobless rate wouldn’t matter.  On the other hand, I’m not sure that people absorb the actual number as much as they absorb their personal experience in the economy — which is why the U-6 number probably matters more, even if most people never hear about it.

Update: Via Drudge, Noel Sheppard notices that incomes declined slightly last month:

The Labor Department reported Friday that despite 184,000 jobs being added to non-farm payrolls in October, average hourly earnings for such employees edged down by 1 cent to $23.58.

Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees also dropped by 1 cent to $19.79.

This continues a trend reported by the Census Bureau in August finding that since the recovery began in June 2009, median household incomes have fallen 4.8 percent adjusted for inflation.

The decline in income relates directly to the health of the labor market.  In a more competitive market, incomes will increase.  This is as good a gauge as any, and again one that workers experience much more personally than U-3 or U-6 numbers.


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No..I only whine when it is a close election. It’s the difference between the Cubbies in 2003 and 2012. I can accept McCain’s inevitable collapse. I don’t like getting teased about winning however.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Unemployment is around 22%. Unless you’re like Obama and claim “we don’t leave anybody behind. Then it is 7.9%.

Christien on November 2, 2012 at 10:44 AM

My favs from page 1

spin away lsm

170000 will be revised down, guaranteed

look at what happened last month…

cmsinaz on November 2, 2012 at 8:36 AM

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from +142,000 to
+192,000, and the change for September was revised from +114,000 to +148,000.

And using word like “guaranteed” when everyone knows you can’t, just end up making you sound like you are having an emotional breakdown. Get yourself together!!

All you unemployed are actually employed now. What, you didn’t know that? Yeah, you are, so go out and…work…or whatever.

Bishop on November 2, 2012 at 8:38 AM

LOL!

But I thought Obama was having these #s rigged…and it goes up?
Jack Welch will have an explanation…right?

verbaluce on November 2, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Grow up! Let’s move on.

171,000 jobs results in 3,000 jobs for each of Obama’s 57 states.

lhuffman34 on November 2, 2012 at 8:40 AM

I checked your math, good job!

The only thing that matters is how it plays on the tv news and in the newspapers. And it’s already being spun as great news for Obama.

The wind is completely at Obama’s back now heading into the final weekend.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Yeah…the media is the trusted source right? Are you high when you post? Puff Puff pass!

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 2, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I don’t like getting teased about winning however.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Easy solution. Don’t whine.

I’m somewhat surprised you couldn’t figure that out yourself.

Unless you also have submerged masochistic tendencies.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Most of the job creation came in the services sector, with a gain of 150,000, while government employment rolls saw a collective decrease of 13,000.

Low paying temp work that will probably vanish? How many of these jobs actually went to citizens? Not many I’ll warrant.

ZeroHedge thinks Employment stats will revert to reality next week, after being crooked for how long?

Who knows.

dogsoldier on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Cause I’d like to hear you say that in NJ right now.

libfreeordie on November 2, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Did New Jersey become a swing state, and nobody told me about it (other than Dick Morris, of course)?

Because if it did, Team Liar has bigger problems than I thought…

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

In case anyone missed it since it was at the bottom of the last page

Since when did an anemic 171,000 job growth become excellent? Let’s take a quick look at what happened coming out of the recession Carter left us. These are the monthly job numbers, 1,114.000 (that’s over a million new jobs in one month for the mathematically challenged libs) 271,000, 352,000, 356,000, 447,000, 479,000, 275,000, 363,000, 308,000, 379,000, 312,000, 241,000, 311,000, 286,000, 349,000. Those were the numbers from September 1983 to November 1984. That’s what a recovery looks like.

Capitalist Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

There is a role for government in a disaster, but it is very limited and certainly no excuse for big government. A smaller government could do just as well in these situations, if not better.

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 10:42 AM

The fed govt should just release the funds if possible without any red tape, and get out of the way. leave the relief and rescue work to the states. If need be, the military can always help with transporting goods and reaching stranded areas and/ or with law enforcement (curfews enforcement, looting orevention, etc).

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM

GumbNuts….such a small crowd….

Romney in WI streaming live….

donkichi on November 2, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Since when did an anemic 171,000 job growth become excellent? Let’s take a quick look at what happened coming out of the recession Carter left us. These are the monthly job numbers, 1,114.000 (that’s over a million new jobs in one month for the mathematically challenged libs) 271,000, 352,000, 356,000, 447,000, 479,000, 275,000, 363,000, 308,000, 379,000, 312,000, 241,000, 311,000, 286,000, 349,000. Those were the numbers from September 1983 to November 1984. That’s what a recovery looks like.

Capitalist Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 AM

And those numbers were with a population that was >80% of what it is today.

Those numbers are QE-floated. As soon as the Fed turns off the spigot, which they will at the first hint of generalized inflation, we’ll be right back in recession.

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Whining comes from being disappointed m’kay.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Can someone explain to me why Doomberg is allowing the New York Marathon to go when they will be running by people who are hungry and cold? The starting point is Staten Island.

I get the ‘New York must carry on’ talking point, but this seems insensitive to me.

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Since when did an anemic 171,000 job growth become excellent? Let’s take a quick look at what happened coming out of the recession Carter left us. These are the monthly job numbers, 1,114.000 (that’s over a million new jobs in one month for the mathematically challenged libs) 271,000, 352,000, 356,000, 447,000, 479,000, 275,000, 363,000, 308,000, 379,000, 312,000, 241,000, 311,000, 286,000, 349,000. Those were the numbers from September 1983 to November 1984. That’s what a recovery looks like.

Capitalist Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 10:34 AM

This.

Erich66 on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

blink on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

The GDP number is faked too, btw. They massage the deflators to increase the topline print. Using a correct deflator would have dropped it negative at least once this year and in reality it’s been close to zero.

But hey let’s use that number and call “Recovery!”

dogsoldier on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Oh, sorry, the hard math is at the consumer metrics institute website.

dogsoldier on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Remember when Barry promised us all 5.2% unemployment? Yeah, it went up to 7.9% today from 7.8% last month. This is not a recovery, Democrats.

I just want to remind everyone of that — especially the Democrats on this thread cheering for the uptick in unemployment.

Let me say that one more time: 7.9% unemployment.

Punchenko on November 2, 2012 at 10:51 AM

This.

Erich66 on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yes.

dogsoldier on November 2, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Oh, OK I think I’m starting to understand conservatism a bit more. You’re confusing “government” with “miracle workers.”

When Wal Mart can respond faster than the Federal Government, then Yes, the Federal Government has failed.

One of the biggest hurricanes to ever hit the north east happened on Monday and Tuesday, and by Friday the state’s inability to completely restore power to everyone is evidence of government’s total incompetence. Well no wonder you all are anti-statist, your standards are unbelievably high.

FYI, Hurricane Sandy doesn’t even rank in the top ten in worst Hurricanes to hit the northeast. Since when did restoring power ever fall on the shoulders of the Government? Name me one power company in NY/NJ which is wholy Government owned/run. None of them. God help the people of NY/NJ should they ever be dependent on the Government for electric power.

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 10:53 AM

libfreeordie, again, did you even look at this study, or did you just decide to blindly accept it without scrutiny?

Are you next going to link us to flawed Hockey Stick charts that supposedly confirm CAGW? Ha ha!

But maybe you don’t understand enough math/science to properly scrutinize such a study. If this is the case, then maybe you should read up on the basics of Time Series Regression Analysis so that you can avoid embarrassing yourself again.

blink on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

He’s in the liberal arts (cultural studies) field, his types are known for being totally math and stats challenged, like they can’t interpret the data themselves, they need NYT and simiar ‘independent’ outfits to do it for them :) it’s called intellectual laziness.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 10:53 AM

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Actually, that was not a typo. She really was saying winning, not whining. Meaning, she was whining about the recent good news which supposedly gave her reason to be hopeful, but now she says that that was just a tease causing her to think Republicans were winning. Confused? So am I. That one is just a useless idiot.

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Punchenko …you can keep repeating that number but you are missing a key fact …f a person gets rescued from drowning ,the rest of their lives they usually focus more on the fact they were saved …you may not like it but the reason President Obama is slightly ahead is …slightly more people on focusing on the fact they feel like little by little they are being saved by President Obama…after they were almost drowned by the Bush/GOP/right wing economic collapse and now they don’t want to be drowned by Romney/Ryan /GOP/right wing … sorry …

U2denver on November 2, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Can someone explain to me why Doomberg is allowing the New York Marathon to go when they will be running by people who are hungry and cold? The starting point is Staten Island.

I get the ‘New York must carry on’ talking point, but this seems insensitive to me.

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Everybody is shocked at his decision. This is diverting resources from those who most need Them. Because it is clear now that he’s prioritizing the power restoration in town, with the areas connected to the marathon being number 1 on the list. Forget the poor, immobilized old people stuck at the upper floors of buildings, without elevators and all…yeah, carry on eating from the dumpsters, Gotham…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Jobs report: 171K jobs added, jobless rate rises to 7.9%

NPR jobs report: 171K jobs added. YAAAAY.

drunyan8315 on November 2, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I may have been wrong about you last night. Guess I haven’t been paying close enough attention.

a capella on November 2, 2012 at 11:06 AM

slightly more people on focusing on the fact they feel like little by little they are being saved by President Obama

U2denver on November 2, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Chris Stevens, Tyrone Woods, etc., did not participate in this highly scientific survey.

Erich66 on November 2, 2012 at 11:07 AM

you may not like it but the reason President Obama is slightly ahead is …slightly more people on focusing on the fact they feel like little by little they are being saved by President Obama…

U2denver on November 2, 2012 at 11:00 AM

“Being saved”?

Like Blacks?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the biggest change in employment over the last month affected black workers. In September, the unemployment rate for blacks was 13.4 percent. In October, that number jumped to 14.3 percent, an almost a full percentage point change, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And young people?

the unemployment rate remain unchanged for teenagers (23.7 percent)

And Hispanics?

Likewise for Hispanics, from 9.9 percent to 10 percent.

And women?

The unemployment rate for adult women shifted up to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent.

btw, can you tell us what those 4 demographics have in common?

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Not confusing at all… I’m from Chicago and root for the Cubbies. Most years, they are pathetic, so there is just lots of eye rolling about them around Chi town. However, some years they make the playoffs and people believe they might win the World Series. They then collapse in the playoffs. It’s easier to deal with a losing regular season, then a season where the team goes to the playoffs and collapses. Same goes for politics. I was fine dealing with McCain’s loss in 2008, but if Romney loses after the glimmers of hope in October and by one point or so in Ohio, then that is depressing.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Can you dispute any of the data?

libfreeordie on November 2, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I dispute about 99.9% of ANYTHING put out by a group with the first word in their name being “Congressional.”

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 AM

most of the liberals that I know HATE both math and science while simultaneously accusing conservatives for supposedly ignoring math and science. I always have quite a bit of easy fun with them!

blink on November 2, 2012 at 10:56 AM

That’s why they accept blindly whatever idiotic ‘scientific’ study put out there, without ever questioning its premises or conclusions. In libfree’s case it’s funny though, coz he usually knows his limits and stays away from stats, data analysis, interpretation of economic indicators, he’s more on the agit prop side of things, with his constant hosannas to statism, but not into hard numbers. So, I really don’t know how he stepped in it this time by deciding to link to that study :)

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Obama supporter Gumby was squealing about crowd sizes earlier. Well, here’s something else for him to chew one:

SHOCK: Only 2,800 Come Out to See Obama at Ohio Rally Today
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/goodness-only-2800-come-out-to-see-obama-at-ohio-rally/

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 AM

you may not like it but the reason President Obama is slightly ahead is …slightly more people on focusing on the fact they feel like little by little they are being saved by President Obama…

U2denver on November 2, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Hahaha…this troll escaped, alas, again, , from its padded cell :)

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Obama supporter Gumby was squealing about crowd sizes earlier. Well, here’s something else for him to chew one:

SHOCK: Only 2,800 Come Out to See Obama at Ohio Rally Today
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/goodness-only-2800-come-out-to-see-obama-at-ohio-rally/

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Aww, poor planning by team Obama :) …borrowing the gumbeyspeak :)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Rick Santelli just reported, on CNBC, that if you do the math on establishment survey from February 2009 to now, outside of revisions, the Obama administration comes in down -61,000 jobs…

Nosmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Aww, poor planning by team Obama :) …borrowing the gumbeyspeak :)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Yep. They should have planned for KingZero not to suck quite so bad. Then more people would give a rat’s a$$ about lining up in the cold to see his bony face.

cynccook on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM

A commenter at Gatewaypundit aptly describes the mood at Obama’s Ohio rally today, where Obama could only draw just over 2500 people:

“Like a fading Rock Star playing at a half empty Casino.”

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:19 AM

<Same goes for politics. I was fine dealing with McCain’s loss in 2008, but if Romney loses after the glimmers of hope in October and by one point or so in Ohio, then that is depressing.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:12 AM

maybe you just are a depressive type yourself…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:20 AM

I’m from Chicago

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:12 AM

You’re from Chicago and you have the nerve to make derogatory remarks about my Senator, Marco Rubio, a man who won – and still receives – overwhelming support from Florida conservatives?

This proves without a doubt that you are to be either A) mocked into oblivion, or B) completely ignored.

I choose B.

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:23 AM

blink on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Liveinbondageordie claims to be a college prof who is working on or has a PhD in the humanities. Do you really expect him to understand either science or math.

chemman on November 2, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Romney loses after the glimmers of hope in October and by one point or so in Ohio, then that is depressing.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Whats your point?

ALyT roots for the Cubs and she is no where near the debbie downer you are. In fact, she is a downright happy camper, and a Cubs fan. She may have no taste, but she certainly ain’t depressing.

You on the other hand…a trolls wet dream.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Obama supporter Gumby was squealing about crowd sizes earlier. Well, here’s something else for him to chew one:

SHOCK: Only 2,800 Come Out to See Obama at Ohio Rally Today
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2012/11/goodness-only-2800-come-out-to-see-obama-at-ohio-rally/

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Romney rallies have to turn people away. People are chomping at the bit to vote out Obama, and anxiety caused by polls will not depress their vote. It will have the opposite effect.

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:25 AM

This proves without a doubt that you are to be either A) mocked into oblivion, or B) completely ignored.

I choose B.

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I go with a mixture of A and B. Its a change from the usual trolls.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Aww, poor planning by team Obama :) …borrowing the gumbeyspeak :)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Yep. They should have planned for KingZero not to suck quite so bad. Then more people would give a rat’s a$$ about lining up in the cold to see his bony face.

cynccook on November 2, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Maybe, but he’s wearing his cool bomber jacket that makes him look soo….phoney :)….You’re in Ohio, right? I’m guessing Ohio has reached the saturation point when it comes to how much dumb campaigning and politicking they can take there…the bronco bama effect :)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Umm.. because it is true that our farm team sucks.. Seriously, what do you want to bet that Rubio’s campaign is built around Si se puede and cambio.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 10:01 AM

The way I see it, our GOP Farm Team looks pretty damn good, and pretty damn Conservative!!!

Rubio, McDonald, Jindal, Kasich(sp), Martinez, Brewer, Sheriff Joe, and I’m sure there are others.

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Check out these priceless photos from today’s lightly attended Obama rally in Ohio:

http://instagram.com/p/Rh8qKXqijW/

Like a Gatewaypundit commenter said, Obama looks like a fading rock star playing to a half-empty casino room. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Romney rallies have to turn people away. People are chomping at the bit to vote out Obama, and anxiety caused by polls will not depress their vote. It will have the opposite effect.

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Watching the rally in WI now… sounds like a really big, really enthusiastic crowd. And topped off by an appearance by Brian Bartlett Starr, hero of the Frozen Tundra.

Yeah, I’m feeling WI magic…

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Check out these priceless photos from another lightly attended Obama rally in Ohio:

http://instagram.com/p/Rh8qKXqijW/

As a Gatewaypundit commenter said, Obama looks like a fading rockstar playing to a half-empty casino room. Oh, how the mighty have fallen.

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Honey.. there’s a reason why Romney didn’t really consider Rubio for VP; he is a bit airy. Yes, he can give pretty speeches about Hope! and Change!, but he really hasn’t done anything in the Senate. When he proposes something more serious than the Olympics thing I’ll change my mind. Both Jindal and Ryan are more substantive, but Jindal probably tanked his chances in 2009 and Ryan is going to get the loser edit if Romney loses.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Watching the rally in WI now… sounds like a really big, really enthusiastic crowd. And topped off by an appearance by Brian Bartlett Starr, hero of the Frozen Tundra.

Yeah, I’m feeling WI magic…

JohnGalt23 on November 2, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I think Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado are Romney’s.

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I’m guessing Ohio has reached the saturation point when it comes to how much dumb campaigning and politicking they can take there…the bronco bama effect :)…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

My sainted mother, whom I’ve never heard utter a curse word in her life, lives in Clermont County on the outskirts of Cincinnati. She told me last Saturday that in all her 77 yrs. she’s never been so ready to see the end to a damn election.

That’s when I realized just how brutal it must be to live in Ohio at this time.

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:38 AM

From the comments at Gateway Pundit:
Re Obama Ohio ‘rally’

It’s actually worse than it appears – when you see what’s behind these pictures:

http://instagram.com/p/Rh8qKXqijW/

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 11:39 AM

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:37 AM

That’s okay honey, there will always be somebody to kick you around.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Here’s the data:
libfreeordie on November 2, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Why don’t they run time-delay series correlation analysis on GDP versus tax rates? Why am I not surprised …

blink on November 2, 2012 at 9:50 AM

libfreeordie, again, did you even look at this study, or did you just decide to blindly accept it without scrutiny?… But maybe you don’t understand enough math/science to properly scrutinize such a study. If this is the case, then maybe you should read up on the basics of Time Series Regression Analysis so that you can avoid embarrassing yourself again.

blink on November 2, 2012 at 10:46 AM

 

… I’ve got training in statistics and a myriad of other social science methods

libfreeordie on January 9, 2009 at 1:49 PM

rogerb on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I go with a mixture of A and B. Its a change from the usual trolls.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Sounds to me like she’s crossed over into JJ Jr. territory. Must be something blowing in the air in the windy city.

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Obama on Tuesday

“I want you to cut through red tape,” Mr. Obama said. I want you to cut through bureaucracy

Imagine how the economy would be doing if he had this attitude three years ago.

agmartin on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I think Ohio, Wisconsin, and Colorado are Romney’s.

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:37 AM

IMHO, if it is tied or Romney is down 1-2 points, he’ll win. I believe the polls are skewed in favor of Dems by as little as +3. VA, FL, CO, NH, IA will ALL go to Romney. WI is looking good, and I can’t see OH going Obama. The ONLY way Obama can win is through fraud. Period. I say by 10:00 next Tuesday, we’ll be saying “President-elect Mitt Romney.”

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I’ll be completely realistic.

The turnout for Obama in Green Bay, Vegas, and that town in Ohio is really, really bad.

But the fact remains that Romney has completely lost his lead, and that’s due to the Hurricane. The people most influenced were the “average voters” and they decide elections, not people who attend rallies.

I’ll also say if there had been no hurricane, Romney would have won. From the internals I heard about in WI, he was actually leading by a point and then faded in the aftermath of Sandy, and is now down 3 (was down 2 a day ago).

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

maybe you just are a depressive type yourself…

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 11:20 AM

maybe“? Yeah, and maybe 0dumba himself is a narcissist!

I say that the dingbatted diva from IL shows strong signs of having bizarre sexual fantasies about an unrequited love, Chris Christie, too, another reason she needs (psychiatric) therapy.

Anti-Control on November 2, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Truth abou Ras. Romney up 48.4 to 47.6. That includes leaners. Certain to vote Romney 46, Obama 46.

In other words, you are still an idiot Gumby.

milcus on November 2, 2012 at 9:25 AM

It has come to this….

second look at the ham sandwich?

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 2, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Nope, gotta’ be genetic at this point. The whole city is certifiable. I cannot think of a single reason to ever go back there. Heck, they even stuck their submarine in the basement.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Don’t even know what the comment above means.. At least I’m prepared for the inevitable gut punch on Nov. 6th.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM

At least I’m prepared for the inevitable gut punch on Nov. 6th.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM

And you are looking forward to it…masochist.

You will get your gut punch though. Romney will win, and you will whine.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:50 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Someone leaked you internals?

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 11:50 AM

But the fact remains that Romney has completely lost his lead, and that’s due to the Hurricane. The people most influenced were the “average voters” and they decide elections, not people who attend rallies.

The hurricane hit two “in the bag” states for Obama. Where is the bump? The only growing bump I see is the one growing on Moooooochelles ever increasing backside.

RandallinHerndon on November 2, 2012 at 11:51 AM

I’ll be happy if Romney wins. I just don’t think it will happen.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:51 AM

But the fact remains that Romney has completely lost his lead.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

You mean that lead which, for the last couple weeks, you insisted he didn’t have and that everyone here was just pulling from an alternate reality?

The Schaef on November 2, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Don’t even know what the comment above means.. At least I’m prepared for the inevitable gut punch on Nov. 6th.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM

You are a mentally sick individual who unsolicitedly and annoyingly shares your troubles with the rest of us – why don’t you go and silently play with yourself in corner, sparing the rest of us your plaintive, tortuous whines? Also, work on getting yourself a sense of humor while you are there!

Anti-Control on November 2, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I’ll be happy if Romney wins. I just don’t think it will happen.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Oh for crying out loud, would you shut up and go away you stupid moby.

Just shut up, o.k.?

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Don’t even know what the comment above means.. At least I’m prepared for the inevitable gut punch on Nov. 6th.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Why are you whining here if you think it is inevitable? Please take your fear porn elsewhere.

Mitsouko on November 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM

I’ll be completely realistic.

The turnout for Obama in Green Bay, Vegas, and that town in Ohio is really, really bad.

But the fact remains that Romney has completely lost his lead, and that’s due to the Hurricane. The people most influenced were the “average voters” and they decide elections, not people who attend rallies.

I’ll also say if there had been no hurricane, Romney would have won. From the internals I heard about in WI, he was actually leading by a point and then faded in the aftermath of Sandy, and is now down 3 (was down 2 a day ago).

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I have no rep here anyway, so I will go ahead and build on the point that you are making for the sake of having a realistic debate:

If the lead is truly “gone”, and they are now truly at a tie like Rasmussen finally shows today, after most polls with D+5 are showing:

What is O without the turn out which you admit is really bad?

IMO, Obama would have to have a clear lead for turn out to matter less and less.

The other side of the coin is: I personally think O is going to hold on to OH and PA, what is the probability of Romney cleaning house on the rest?

my bottom line: We are all going sh!t in our pants from now until Wednesday morning. For some, the next 4 yrs will be so painful…either way.

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 2, 2012 at 11:57 AM

What is a Moby, by the way?

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Just shut up, o.k.?

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM

LMAO!!! personal joke at my house in that line. HAHA

Can.I.be.in.the.middle on November 2, 2012 at 11:59 AM

What is a Moby, by the way?

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 11:57 AM

wikipedia uses Illinidiva as an example.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Please promise that you will stay single forever. No man deserves to have to be stuck with you. Well, maybe there is one… perhaps you could be paired up with Gumby. I bet he would love to listen to your nonstop whining. Match made in heaven.

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Because.. I’m tired of having lousy candidates and losing elections. Seriously, I mentioned before that of the five elections I remember.. three involved D landslides and the other involved hanging chads. I as a nig Dubya fan, but considering the state of the R party after 2008, I’m thinking that he was the wrong candidate. However, there really weren’t any other good candidates in 2000.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Benghazi, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nobody cares about Benghazi.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 1:14 AM

You mean you’re going to deal with these jobs numbers being THIS ‘completely realistic’ Gumby? The same kind of ‘realistic’ you apply to Benghazi and the loss of four Americans?

thatsafactjack on November 2, 2012 at 12:02 PM

wikipedia uses Illinidiva as an example.
cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Agreed. Now there is no doubt.

bluegill on November 2, 2012 at 12:05 PM

No… physically couldn’t take that shill. Also, I whine here rather than to buddies. I don’t even talk politics because I live in Evanston, which is uber liberal.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

wikipedia uses Illinidiva as an example.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 11:59 AM

heh. I checked the definition. wikipedia is spot on.

Nick_Angel on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:02 PM

What in the hell is wrong with you?

Shut up and go away.

JPeterman on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Benghazi, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nobody cares about Benghazi.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 1:14 AM

It is obvious that you morons on the left and Obama do not care. You truly are disgusting.

jqc1970 on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

But the fact remains that Romney has completely lost his lead, and that’s due to the Hurricane. The people most influenced were the “average voters” and they decide elections, not people who attend rallies.

I’ll also say if there had been no hurricane, Romney would have won. From the internals I heard about in WI, he was actually leading by a point and then faded in the aftermath of Sandy, and is now down 3 (was down 2 a day ago).

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Not so fast there little clay boy.

Response to Sandy holds election’s key

Five days away from a presidential election that centers on the role of government, Hurricane Sandy has handed the United States an extraordinary experiment in how government performs. In an impossible-to-imagine sequence of events, the city with the country’s largest police force, biggest fire department and highest tax revenues is being put to a historic test.

The political stakes are enormous. As the media blankets the rest of the country with saturation coverage of the recovery effort, an effective government response in New York and New Jersey could aid President Barack Obama in a deadlocked election. Looting, lawlessness and anger at government could aid Mitt Romney.

Thus far, Mayor Mike Bloomberg and his government are generally receiving high marks from city residents. But over the next several days events in the New York area could prove pivotal.

In a dozen interviews across the city Thursday, residents expressed growing worry. Promised aid from the Federal Emergency Management Agency was not arriving, fights were breaking out, and tensions simmered in gas lines that snaked for miles.

Despite Bloomberg’s endorsement of Obama Thursday afternoon and a generally positive jobs report Friday morning, time is slowly running on believers in government. The socio-economic divide that I wrote about earlier this week is widening.

btw, did you hear that NJ turned away crews that came into the area to help – because they were non-union?

And Bloomberg is taking money and resources away from the storm clean-up and restoration to use it for the NY Marathon?

Yeah, that ought to give people a warm and fuzzy feeling about voting for the party who supports unions and the nannystate.

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 12:11 PM

I’m incredibly jealous of your database. Is there any way you can set up a website so that we can access it with keyword searches?
 
libfreeordie probably learned what a percentage calculation is and then immediately forgot it. I’ve seen what goes on in those ‘statistics for poets’ classes. A bunch of people trying to memorize facts prior to an exam as if it’s history or something.
 
blink on November 2, 2012 at 11:55 AM

 
You give me too much credit. My posts are mostly just site:hotair.com google searches. Put in some keywords and out pops comical hypocrisy, and usually on the first page of results.
 
FWIW, I’m guessing “training in statistics and a myriad of other social science methods” means “I made at least a ‘C’ on the core curriculum courses required for all BA undergrads.”

rogerb on November 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Because.. I’m tired of having lousy candidates and losing elections. Seriously, I mentioned before that of the five elections I remember.. three involved D landslides and the other involved hanging chads. I as a nig Dubya fan, but considering the state of the R party after 2008, I’m thinking that he was the wrong candidate. However, there really weren’t any other good candidates in 2000.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:02 PM

No… physically couldn’t take that shill. Also, I whine here rather than to buddies. I don’t even talk politics because I live in Evanston, which is uber liberal.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

How old are you? You sound like someone with the emotional age of 5 or 6.

Anti-Control on November 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM

Anti-Control on November 2, 2012 at 12:12 PM

You give her too much credit.

By 5, or 6, normal children realize there is more to the world than just their feelings.

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 12:15 PM

It is obvious that you morons on the left and Obama do not care. You truly are disgusting.

jqc1970 on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

My advice to you (and others) about gumbyandpokey: he’s a button-pusher who is an unserious person, unwilling to clearly reveal his real intent when he’s talking crap, and thus should be ignored.

Anti-Control on November 2, 2012 at 12:16 PM

No… physically couldn’t take that shill. Also, I whine here rather than to buddies. I don’t even talk politics because I live in Evanston, which is uber liberal.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Nobody here gives a chit…either. What part of that do you not understand? Srsly, STFU.

HumpBot Salvation on November 2, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Yep, watch the screaming headlines most likely starting today.

Crisis in the Big Apple!!

I believe the medias love to showcase peoples misery for ratings will override their lust to protect dear leader.

HumpBot Salvation on November 2, 2012 at 12:24 PM

… I’ve got training in statistics and a myriad of other social science methods.

rogerb on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Looks like it was all graded on an AA basis.

slickwillie2001 on November 2, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Yep, watch the screaming headlines most likely starting today.

Crisis in the Big Apple!!

I believe the medias love to showcase peoples misery for ratings will override their lust to protect dear leader.

HumpBot Salvation on November 2, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Too late.

@chrisrock

Family’s are being kicked out of hotel rooms to make room for runners. This is insane

And gumby

Benghazi, LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Nobody cares about Benghazi.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 1:14 AM

Oh really?

@jonward11

saw two identical signs outside Obama’s Lima event: “It was not the video!” Another said, “Media do your jobs!”

Flora Duh on November 2, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Tropical storm Sandy recovery beginning to make GWB Katrina recovery look pretty good. People eating out of garbage cans does not bid well for Obama’s government can save you spin. I think this storm actually moves PA into Romney win column and will suppress Obama turnout in NJ and NY, though he still wins those two states.

Ellis on November 2, 2012 at 12:52 PM

What am I supposed to do? Be a weird Pollyanna person and shill stuff I don’t believe. The same people optimistic today were optimistic in 2008 as well.

Illinidiva on November 2, 2012 at 12:56 PM

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