Game time: Final House rankings

posted at 6:41 pm on November 2, 2012 by Patrick Ishmael

The die has been cast, and this is what the final roll has turned up.

I’ve done my best to replicate the system of scoring House seats that I developed back during the 2010 cycle while trying to integrate all of the new information from the decennial redistricting. As I came to find, it was remarkably difficult to get a good handle on whether, for instance, a new district was replacing a Republican or Democrat district, so counting how many seats are flipping each way required some occasional art on my part. 2014 should produce a more stable picture for prognostication.

The situation

Currently the GOP holds a 240-190 seat lead over Democrats in the House, with five “vacant” seats likely splitting 3 Dem-2 GOP. Assuming a 242-193 House, Democrats would need to gain 25 seats to claim a majority. That won’t happen. Among other things, redistricting forced a slew of of long-time Democratic House members into retirement whose replacements will almost certainly be Republicans. As I noted earlier in October, Republicans have the most seats to lose, but they have the most certain seats to gain.

The seats

Below is the list of Democratic seats in jeopardy, and below that are the Republican seats in jeopardy. Seats rated over 60% are pretty safe for Republicans. Seats between 50% and 60% favor the GOP along a spectrum. Seats at 50% are, of course, a toss-up. Seats below 50% favor the Democrats.

If you have particular questions about a particular race, listed or not, tweet me @theish.

The prediction

There isn’t going to be much net movement, but as I said in October, there’s a real possibility the GOP could actually pick up a few seats here. My 2010 model predicts a GOP pickup of 3 seats. The model revised for a non-wave 2012 election predicts a Dem pickup of one seat. Because of the ambiguity I noted above, I’m splitting the difference and predicting a net GOP pick up of one, though I wouldn’t be surprised if the actual result came in between GOP +4 and Dem +2.

Am I way off? We’ll soon find out. In the meantime, be sure to vote! Predicting is fun, but winning’s more fun…


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Phew, I was jonesin’ for your analysis.

Thanks

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Excellent analysis. Thank you.

thatsafactjack on November 2, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Please put Pelosi’s picture (up front) so that the voters get scared of what c/b again.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I would love to see if you could explain some metrics or formulation. As a bit of a Math Geek, these calculations are always enjoyable!

http://www.paratisiusa.blogspot.com

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 2, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Scott Tipton is my Congressman. He is not in any danger of losing whatsover.

His Democratic opponent was arrested for public urination. Enough said.

Norwegian on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Phew, I was jonesin’ for your analysis.

Thanks

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Let’s not forget the Senate where the Tea Party will lose a solid GOP seat in Indiana and one of their own has clearly blown an easy win in Missouri. If things don’t improve, the Tea Party will soon be crying itself to sleep as dreams of an election year putsch and governance with ‘no comprise’ are forever lost.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/donnelly-leads-mourdock-by-11-in-indiana-senate-race-bipartisan-poll-shows/

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Awesome analysis, thanks.

changer1701 on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Thank you Patrick, have really been looking forward to your excellent election analysis. Fingers crossed!

BruthaMan on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Gee, nearly every state with a Demo favor is a lib bastion.
Who’d a thought?

OkieDoc on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

You’re way off in AZ…

Vernon Parker is up about 5 points in AZ-9

John Paton is up about 15 points in AZ-1

Eph on November 2, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Latham is holding Boswell to a tie here, but I think he will pull it off…(Iowa)

lovingmyUSA on November 2, 2012 at 6:51 PM

I’m holding out for the Presidential Election Thread.

Then. . .well, then I’m gonna give you the whole load.

RedNewEnglander on November 2, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Crush them.

Bruno Strozek on November 2, 2012 at 6:52 PM

good job on the analysis. CA-09 is a plausible republican pick up this cycle. While the redistricting decreased republican registration, it eliminated the bay area electorate. The candidate Ricky Gill has the support of most of the farmer community which is pretty influential in the Central Valley.

cjv209 on November 2, 2012 at 6:52 PM

When will you be predicting the Presidential race, Patrick?

vegconservative on November 2, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Michael Barone final Prediction today:

Romney 315 EV, Obama 223 EV.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/barone-going-out-on-a-limb-romney-wins-handily/article/2512470

mnjg on November 2, 2012 at 6:54 PM

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Losing IN does not mean the TEA (taxed enough already) party will be dead. They’ll shock you on Tuesday.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:54 PM

They’ll shock you on Tuesday, and thereafter.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Stupid Kearstin makes a case that incompetence is better than a conspiracy. God, what an empty head she is.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Notably absent on list of vulnerable R seats are those PA seats flipped from D to R in the midterms. Wouldn’t a massive D turnout in the Philly burbs put those seats at risk? Swing voters in Philly burbs are not feeling for the D’s these days.

msmveritas on November 2, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Look at this crowd in Cincinnati.

They say it’s going to be his biggest crowd of the election.

FUN

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 6:55 PM

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Perhaps the skid mark sniffing has affected your comprehension.
The lead in is “House”, not Senate. That analysis will follow I am certain.
But, you’ll probably just post, “Let’s not forget the House…”
Typical proggy circle jerk.

OkieDoc on November 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Man, Patrick, I’ve been aching to see what you had to say, and asking about your analysis and predictions in many threads. So good to see you…

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Patrick Ishmael > Nate Silver

portlandon on November 2, 2012 at 6:57 PM

. If things don’t improve, the Tea Party will soon be crying itself to sleep as dreams of an election year putsch and governance with ‘no comprise’ are forever lost.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

And America loses. Mooches and big gov. corporate welfare loving stooges like yourself win.

CW on November 2, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Sucks that we have an open seat here in WA-06 (with Norm Dicks finally taking his monstrous pension and defense contractor swag into retirement) and nobody even gives Bill Driscoll, the Republican, a chance vs. the no-name Dem running for the seat, even with the addition of military-heavy areas from the old WA-01.

Why? Even accounting for the part of the district in Tacoma, the district isn’t that left wing. I guess we just can’t have a Republican member of Congress west of the Cascades not named Reichert.

fiatboomer on November 2, 2012 at 7:07 PM

thanks Patrick

CoffeeLover on November 2, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Pelosi is gone by January, Count it!

rob verdi on November 2, 2012 at 7:11 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/donnelly-leads-mourdock-by-11-in-indiana-senate-race-bipartisan-poll-shows/

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

So I’m going to be the first guy to tell the troll that the poll he is clutching like a security blanket is so warped that the pollster refuses to release the crosstabs?

fiatboomer on November 2, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Republican House: CHECK!!

Republican President: CHECK!!

Republican Senate: I sure hope so!!

Khun Joe on November 2, 2012 at 7:16 PM

O/T: Rudy’s tearing Obama a new one in OH right now.

changer1701 on November 2, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Dan Benishek is not going to lose in MI-1.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

We should be picking a few seats here in western WA to include a US Senate seat…then I woke up and realized the RNC spits on us and refuses to come across with the cheese. A-holes.

Mr. Arrogant on November 2, 2012 at 7:25 PM

My Republican representative doesn’t have Democratic opponent. Even though South Carolina surely will be going for Romney, I will be sure to get out and vote. Standing in lines for far too long a time.

SC.Charlie on November 2, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Wouldn’t a massive D turnout in the Philly burbs put those seats at risk? Swing voters in Philly burbs are not feeling for the D’s these days.

msmveritas on November 2, 2012 at 6:55 PM

The DCCC pulled out of all of those races a few weeks ago with the exception of PA-6. Gerlach will beat Trivedi there handily like he did in 2010.

blammm on November 2, 2012 at 7:29 PM

O/T: Rudy’s tearing Obama a new one in OH right now.
changer1701 on November 2, 2012 at 7:19 PM

RAAAAAAACIST RUUUUUUUUUUUDY!!!!
-madlibs

Marcola on November 2, 2012 at 7:31 PM

*************** Alert **********************

Video: Romney and Ryan rally in Ohio

LIVE FEED

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

I haven’t followed this too much, but just checked it. Don’t like the Senate projection, that’s for sure.

http://unskewedpolls.com/

bluefox on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Here’s something for everybody (who’s inclined) to put on their computer for the next 4 days…

http://cdn.ricochet.com/var/ezwebin_site/storage/images/media/images/keepcalm/2968766-1-eng-US/keepcalm_lightbox.png

See you at the finish line.

H/T: AoS/Ricochet

CPT. Charles on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Patrick Ishmael –> God’s ears.

hillsoftx on November 2, 2012 at 7:36 PM

gophergirl on November 2, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Watch out for nails in the parking lot at the Ryan rally this weekend, darlin’

OmahaConservative on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Anybody else see this in the headlines today? If they are right, and I’m doing the math right….wow. And it’s ABC/WaPo!

KCB on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

http://www.breakingnews.com/

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

McCain speaking now my friends.

OTTO on November 2, 2012 at 7:37 PM

canopfor on November 2, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Thanks! Watching it now!!

bluefox on November 2, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Hopefully the House will elect a real leader as Speaker instead of John Boehner.

RJL on November 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

So I’m going to be the first guy to tell the troll that the poll he is clutching like a security blanket is so warped that the pollster refuses to release the crosstabs?

fiatboomer on November 2, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Don’t worry, the ‘rape pregnancy as God’s intention’ a-clown is losing in every poll.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 7:43 PM

Hopefully the House will elect a real leader as Speaker instead of John Boehner.

RJL on November 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Allen West

OTTO on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I hope we send John Barrow, the oba-mao lover, packing. Let him find a job in the economy he has helped create and perpetuate.

ultracon on November 2, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Sean Trende ‏@SeanTrende

Our close-to-final house ratings are out. Projection is 241-242 Republican seats. Almost no change. http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html

Sean Davis Sean Davis ‏@seanmdav

@SeanTrende Doesn’t really jive with a massive (D+8) Democratic turnout advantage, does it?

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I believe you’ve got the Connecticut seat held by Patrick Murphy wrong. It’s the 5th CD in northwest CT, most Republican area of the State. This is Danbury.

Saw a poll or two with Republican Andrew Roraback comfortably ahead there. He’ll be the first GOPer elected in CT for Congress in 8 years.

ericdondero on November 2, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Illinois to lose four to five GOP seats?

The Illinois Dem machine must have done quite a job both gerrymandering and smearing.

farsighted on November 2, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Allen West

OTTO on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

If you pulled your head out of the dark dank place you would perhaps realize West is a progressive.

Mr. Arrogant on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Please put Pelosi’s picture (up front) so that the voters get scared of what c/b again.

Schadenfreude on November 2, 2012 at 6:48 PM

…the picture that’s THERE makes me want to cry!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 7:53 PM

bayam on November 2, 2012

…shut-up and chew your hay!

KOOLAID2 on November 2, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Don’t worry, the ‘rape pregnancy as God’s intention’ a-clown is losing in every poll.

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 7:43 PM

You don’t worry either, the retarded flukes’ contraceptives paid with tax payer’s money is losing in every poll too.

jimver on November 2, 2012 at 7:57 PM

What about the Senate? Are we facing destructive rule by the nitwit from Nevada?

Django on November 2, 2012 at 8:06 PM

The bad deal is Alan Grayson could get back in.

And after 4 years total, he’d be vested in the pension and benefits.

Lanceman on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Keeping the House is my personal version of a “firewall” against the socialist takeover of the US. This makes me rest much easier.

Progressive Heretic on November 2, 2012 at 8:30 PM

I predict Boehner will be as worthless before as after the election.

albill on November 2, 2012 at 8:32 PM

Hopefully the House will elect a real leader as Speaker instead of John Boehner.

RJL on November 2, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Allen West

OTTO on November 2, 2012 at 7:44 PM

I only wish.

Sadly I am willing to bet we will end up with Boehner again. And McConnell. Both should go.

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 8:34 PM

The bad deal is Alan Grayson could get back in.

And after 4 years total, he’d be vested in the pension and benefits.

Lanceman on November 2, 2012 at 8:07 PM

What’s up with this idiot? Isn’t he running in a R leaning district? Read a couple of days ago that he is a shoe in, can’t believe this and hope this is just a bad assessment.

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Keeping the House is my personal version of a “firewall” against the socialist takeover of the US. This makes me rest much easier.

Progressive Heretic on November 2, 2012 at 8:30 PM

Please remind me how Boehner was a firewall of any kind the past 2 years. When did he say No, either in Congress or to any illegal residential fiat order?

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 8:36 PM

Republican House: CHECK!!

Republican President: CHECK!!

Republican Senate: I sure hope so!!

Khun Joe on November 2, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I can feel it. This will happen. However, R/R will face an uphill battle wtih the RINO establishment, unless someone in each body can step up and start a movement to replace the leadership. When picking leaders of the House and Senate, they always find the person most acceptable to the “DEMOCRATS” and Andrea Mitchell. Remember Haskard and Trent Lott? That needs to stop. There are a lot of good choices but I’ll be happy with Jim DeMint in the Senate and Michelle Bachman in the House. If we don’t get leaders who don’t care what Chis Matthews say about them, we will not advance the ball as fast as needed.

Alabama Infidel on November 2, 2012 at 8:51 PM

This is killing me to see Joe Walsh’s predicament. He was a great rep. C’mon IL-8th district, get out the vote for Joe!

Fallon on November 2, 2012 at 9:06 PM

The Illinois Dem machine must have done quite a job both gerrymandering and smearing.

farsighted on November 2, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Yes, they gutted the districts with new Tea Party reps. My district, the 14th, is about the only one in our area that wasn’t destroyed. It’s sick. Quinn only won three (3) counties, but because of the population of Chicago (and extra boxes of votes therein) he won the governorship and control of the redistricting.

Fallon on November 2, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Please remind me how Boehner was a firewall of any kind the past 2 years. When did he say No, either in Congress or to any illegal residential fiat order?

riddick on November 2, 2012 at 8:36 PM

He almost didn’t agree with raising the debt ceiling.

BobMbx on November 2, 2012 at 10:14 PM

Don’t be surprised – Illinois may not be as far gone as many think. The 67% bump in the state income tax has NOT gone over well and the Rs are putting the blame squarely on the Ds. Patrick’s got four House sitting Rs at risk but I wouldn’t be surprised if at least two of them retained their seats. It’ll be fun to watch!

AJsDaddie on November 2, 2012 at 11:24 PM

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/donnelly-leads-mourdock-by-11-in-indiana-senate-race-bipartisan-poll-shows/

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

The People’s House was won by the Tea Party and still where America’s Budget begins and ends.

itsspideyman on November 3, 2012 at 4:33 AM

Dan Benishek is not going to lose in MI-1.

Raquel Pinkbullet on November 2, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I was going to post the same thing. MI is going to have another red wave as we did in 2010. The only exception, unfortunately, is the Senate seat. The GOP candidate is running against a 2 term incumbent with MILLIONS to spend and she has put 5 ads on the air for every 1 the GOP has put up. Sigh.

karenhasfreedom on November 3, 2012 at 8:18 AM

Sorting by pick-up (held by other party and 60% or better chance to get), toss-up (held by other party and 59% to 41% chance to take) and hold (held by party and 60% or better chance to get), I see:

9 dem seats to be picked up by the GOP vs 8 GOP seats to be picked up by dems, so R+1.

4 dem seats to be held (I am assuming CT-5 should be shaded a tossup) vs 6 GOP seats to be held.

10 dem seats and 15 GOP seats in the toss up category. Delving a little deeper in the toss up ratings, for those over 50% and held by a party vs under 50% and held by a party, we find the dems have 6 seats slightly more likely to go to GOP vs 4 slightly more likely to stay dem so R+2. The GOP has 7 seats slightly more likely to go to dems, 7 seats likely to be held and one true 50-50, so push.

So I think the R+3 is a better call. Of course people on both sides of the aisle who aren’t on this list may find themselves surprised next Wednesday, but I suspect they are more likely to be dems than GOP. Historically, it would be rarer for an incumbent president’s party to gain seats than to lose.

Now if the GOP can just find a way to sideline Harry Reid as the majority leader so we can pass a budget and get the senate out of the way of economic recovery.

yetanotherjohn on November 3, 2012 at 12:36 PM

cozmo on November 2, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Let’s not forget the Senate where the Tea Party will lose a solid GOP seat in Indiana and one of their own has clearly blown an easy win in Missouri. If things don’t improve, the Tea Party will soon be crying itself to sleep as dreams of an election year putsch and governance with ‘no comprise’ are forever lost.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/02/donnelly-leads-mourdock-by-11-in-indiana-senate-race-bipartisan-poll-shows/

bayam on November 2, 2012 at 6:50 PM

.
Woe is us … alas, alas … all is DOOM . . . . .

Yep, you got the goods on us, bayam. . . : ) … I don’t know what I’m grinning about . . . . .

listens2glenn on November 3, 2012 at 6:28 PM