Any Romney supporters considering not bothering to vote should keep this in mind

;-)

Zomcon JEM on November 2, 2012 at 2:47 PM

Oiho concerns me because it has been a swing state for so long that the democratics have a huge well-oiled vote theft machine in place. Remember the Wikileaks on vote theft in Oiho in 2008 (and PA)? McCain decided not to fight.

The spread of early voting gives them more paths to steal votes too. With one day of voting, greedy union members had to get all their multiple county and state votes all done in the same day. With early voting they can leisurely bus them around for days.

> Ric perhaps you noticed that Obama didn’t go UP in support?
> That is what Obama needs as any incumbent does not want to be
> under 50 in an Presidential election.

Gee, look’s like the One is at 50% right now.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_obama_job_approval-1044.html

MARCU$

Even Ras is using inaccurate early voting screens, and I haven’t been able to figure out why – and of course the Obama polls have been even worse.

As to the Iowa poll – There won’t be a D+6 electorate – no one believes that. Iowa will be close. But based upon early voting info it looks like Obama realizes he isn’t going to get there. I know he is hitting Ohio hard but hadn’t seen many Iowa stops on the schedule.

In what way BS was scrutinizing the numbers, is beyond me.

Early totals show a 50% difference from ’08, with a 10-15% in Cuyahoga, and a 50-75% in other Northeast strongholds, like Akron/Canton. That’s huge, bcause it puts even more pressure on the big Dem counties, who’ve lost voters due to population shift and the voter roll purges.

I’m concerned with what Ken Blackwell pointed out with provision ballots; people asked for absebtee/early and then show up on voting day. Those ballots get put aside for ten days to make sure they’re not double-taps.

If Romney doesn’t win by 250K or more, Team Barry is going to drag this into Thanksgiving.

IMO, that’s the real reason for the map expansion; whether you carry those states or not, build a popular vote count that makes it hard to build a pro-Obama narrative in the media.

In other words, if Romney wins OH by 125K, and Team Barry goes bat-crap crazy pulling voters out of nowhere, Team Mitt wants to poeple able to point to PA or MN and say, “you barely won these states, are we going to recount everywhere until you win”?

You want to explain where you get the 2008 Obama lead of 17%? According to your underlying information, I’d buy a 2008 McCain lead of 17%.

2008:

Absentee ballots requested: 117,706
AB returned: 40,440 (34.4%)
Democrats returned: 16,763 (41.5%)
Republicans returned: 23,677 (58.5%)

In 2008, 14% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans did.

McCain had a 17%-point lead over Obama in 2008. Today, Romney has a 20.6%-point lead over Obama.

It was a mistake. The line “X had a %-point lead over Y in 2008. Today, X has a %-point lead over Y” is new, as of today. Evidently, I carried the line from above and didn’t catch the mistake before I made the changes in percentages. Sorry.

You want to explain where you get the 2008 Obama lead of 17%? According to your underlying information, I’d buy a 2008 McCain lead of 17%.

Sorry, cockroach theory applies: you see one mistake in numbers, it calls into question the accuracy of other numbers. I’ll pass.

BuckeyeSam on November 2, 2012 at 12:38 PM

It was most likely a carryover from the previous entry above. The numbers come for the link that I above gave you.

So, do you know what that means???? You can do you own work!

BuckeyeSam on November 2, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Then, by all means, do your own math:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

In Shift, Romney Campaign Approaches Pennsylvania With a New Urgency

But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.

Trust me, the meltdown on MSNBC is going to be LEGENDARY. It’s going to make their 2010 coverage look fair and balanced.

MSNBC: The place for Schadenfreude!

SaveFarris on November 2, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I will probably watch Fox and DVR MSNBC… that way I can go back and enjoy the gradual meltdown, with popcorn, while knowing the final result.

dominigan on November 2, 2012 at 12:53 PM

I’ll have to check PBS as well to see Judy Woodruff break down.

Could this be the first troll free thread of the day?

high hopes…high hopes!

HoustonRight on November 2, 2012 at 10:05 AM
An idiot like you is a troll magnet.

thuja on November 2, 2012 at 10:16 AM

…Houston!…you have toilet paper stuck on your a$$!

Isn’t an independent just a former Democrat or a former RINO?

albill on November 2, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Actually a lot of them are strong conservatives that got fed up with the RINO establishment in the GOP. Part of the idea is by switching from R to I, you’re reducing the set of people the establishment expects to vote for them, putting more pressure to actually perform instead of give lip service. I not sure how to evaluate the strategy other than to point out how much courting the independent vote has become as part of an election strategy… so maybe it is working…

dominigan on November 2, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Yep.

Isn’t an independent just a former Democrat or a former RINO?

albill on November 2, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Actually a lot of them are strong conservatives that got fed up with the RINO establishment in the GOP. Part of the idea is by switching from R to I, you’re reducing the set of people the establishment expects to vote for them, putting more pressure to actually perform instead of give lip service. I not sure how to evaluate the strategy other than to point out how much courting the independent vote has become as part of an election strategy… so maybe it is working…

Trust me, the meltdown on MSNBC is going to be LEGENDARY. It’s going to make their 2010 coverage look fair and balanced.

MSNBC: The place for Schadenfreude!

SaveFarris on November 2, 2012 at 10:55 AM

I will probably watch Fox and DVR MSNBC… that way I can go back and enjoy the gradual meltdown, with popcorn, while knowing the final result.

Oh my, Rasmussen now has the raced tied. A swing of two points for Obama.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM
Ric perhaps you noticed that Obama didn’t go UP in support? That is what Obama needs as any incumbent does not want to be under 50 in an Presidential election.

Ronaldusmax on November 2, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Obama has been polling ahead in the swing states all of October. For a long time there has been the argument that it was impossible for him to be down nationally by one or two points and be ahead in Oh, Nh, Ia, ect. Now there doesn’t need to be that arguments since in the poll of polls Obama is actually polling ahead now of Romney. So the swing state poll numbers now make sense. Obama is seeing a bump, and probably the last one of the election. He now has the momentum heading into Tuesday, not Romney.

Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 11:33 AM
Resist We Much on November 2, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I’m not sure why I bothered, but I clicked on your link. I’m from Hamilton County so I decided to scrutinize your numbers for it.

2008 Hamilton County final vote (all) tally:

Obama: 225,213 – 53.14%
McCain: 195,530 – 46.14%
Differential: 7.00%

2008:

Absentee ballots requested: 117,706
AB returned: 40,440 (34.4%)
Democrats returned: 16,763 (41.5%)
Republicans returned: 23,677 (58.5%)

In 2008, 14% of Democrats returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. 20% of Republicans did.

2012:

Absentee ballots requested: 111,440
AB returned: 42,941 (35.8%)
Democrats returned: 17,061 (39.7%)
Republicans returned: 25,880 (60.3%)

In 2012, 15% of Democrats have returned their ballots, as a percentage of the absentee ballots requested. Thus far, 23% of Republicans have.

Obama had a 17%-point lead over McCain in 2008. Today, Romney has a 20.6%-point lead over Obama.

I see where you get the 2012 Romney lead of 20.6% (60.3% less 39.7%).

You want to explain where you get the 2008 Obama lead of 17%? According to your underlying information, I’d buy a 2008 McCain lead of 17%.

Sorry, cockroach theory applies: you see one mistake in numbers, it calls into question the accuracy of other numbers. I’ll pass.

Oh my, Rasmussen now has the raced tied. A swing of two points for Obama.

Ric on November 2, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Ric perhaps you noticed that Obama didn’t go UP in support? That is what Obama needs as any incumbent does not want to be under 50 in an Presidential election.

Obama won the national popular vote in 2008 by 7 points with a D+7 turnout. If you take into account that he has lost more than 7 points of support among every one of his support demographics, Democrats are not fired up in 2012, independent voters are not leaning Obama as they were in 2008, and that the Democrats overall are a smaller proportion of the electorate in 2012, there is no path to victory for Obama in national popular vote.

crosspatch on November 2, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Rasmussen, the only poll Republicans seem to trust have Obama tied with Romney right now. Also it has Obama’s approval ratings at exactly 50. Sure the election is going to be closer than it was in 2008. Nobody is disputing that. But right now Obama has the advantage. And I don’t see it changing between now and Tuesday.

Obama won the national popular vote in 2008 by 7 points with a D+7 turnout. If you take into account that he has lost more than 7 points of support among every one of his support demographics, Democrats are not fired up in 2012, independent voters are not leaning Obama as they were in 2008, and that the Democrats overall are a smaller proportion of the electorate in 2012, there is no path to victory for Obama in national popular vote.

Doesn’t Romney have a good shot at that one district in Maine with its single EV? That won’t amount to anything other than padding of course.

Doughboy on November 2, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The state flipped red in 2010.