Video: PA pollster calls state “too close to call,” discusses polling bias and criticism

posted at 2:01 pm on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Puzzled by the conflicting series of polls coming out this week?  Unsure about the legitimacy of polling critiques relating to samples and partisan splits?  You’ll want to watch this interview I conducted earlier today with Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling & Research, which conducts polls in Pennsylvania for the Pittsburgh Tribune Review as well as the GOP and the state legislature, and also polls in Florida for Sunshine State News as Voter Survey Service.  A month ago, Michael Barone correctly credited SPR and Jim for being the first pollster to report that Pennsylvania was in play in the presidential election.  At the time, other pollster scoffed, but now both campaigns are spending heavily and the state is “too close to call,” Jim tells me in this exclusive interview.

How did SPR realize that the Keystone State was up for grabs?  SPR polls in every state legislative district, and include presidential polling as part of their profile.  Barack Obama’s performance in every district had dropped significantly from 2008 — an average decline of seven points — and all three of the re-elect keys showed under 50% (head-to-head, favorability, job approval).  Jim had to defend those results when people shrugged off his findings, which he discusses with me here:

Video streaming by Ustream

After an interruption in the call, I reconnected with Jim to discuss polling issues in general, especially criticism over sample composition and partisan splits. While other pollsters claim that this criticism is illegitimate, Jim insists that this criticism is entirely valid, and criticizes pollsters whose models shift from week to week.

Video streaming by Ustream

Here are the three keys Jim says to watch in Pennsylvania. Romney needs to tie Obama in the suburbs of Philadelphia (where Obama won by 200,000 votes in 2008), outperform John McCain in the western part of the state, and win the turnout battle. Absentee ballot requests show Republicans winning the third key, at least in the last few days before next Tuesday, with a 19-point edge in requests.  Be sure to watch the whole interview, and keep an eye out on Sunday for the final poll in the Pittsburgh Tribune Review.

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Polls are all over the map but not good for Obama.

Schadenfreude on November 1, 2012 at 2:04 PM

PA is going Romney all suburbs are going red

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Coal and Benghazi will nail Obama.

Schadenfreude on November 1, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Continuing to pray and having fingers and toes crossed. Thanks ED

CoffeeLover on November 1, 2012 at 2:05 PM

That it is this close tells how much the land has sunk into oblivion.

Rescue yourself, America. Tuesday is your last chance.

Schadenfreude on November 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Heh, perhaps the “bitter clingers” will have the last laugh.

buckichick1 on November 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Heh, perhaps the “bitter clingers” will have the last laugh.

buckichick1 on November 1, 2012 at 2:07 PM

“Rubes” will unite and the silent majority will beat the erudites. It w/b super schadenfreudig to watch.

Schadenfreude on November 1, 2012 at 2:08 PM

I quietly await Susquehanna Polling’s vindication. I still think Bambi has an upper hand, but for PA to go RR?

Priceless.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 2:11 PM

In 2008 Obama was the smoke and mirrors president.

Now he’s the crappy president thinking Americans know and consider to be absolutely worthless.

Blowout.

NoDonkey on November 1, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Saying support Obama on the phone, and actually standing in line for him for up to 2 hours are 2 different things.

I predict Obama has so maxed out his moderate democrat supporters, and they are so discouraged with him that they will probably stay home.

portlandon on November 1, 2012 at 2:12 PM

If PA goes Obama he will lose the electoral vote. He’ll have to find another way to earn a second term.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Pennsylvania is too close to call, yet the trolls believe Obama is up 5 in Ohio? What kind of clay are they smokin’?

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

OT: DIdn’t Donald Trump’s revised deadline at noon eastern time to release his college transcripts just expire? Hello? I hope for his sake, he already has them…

parteagirl on November 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Pennsylvania is too close to call, yet the trolls believe Obama is up 5 in Ohio? What kind of clay are they smokin’?

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Precisely.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Here are the three keys Jim says to watch in Pennsylvania. Romney needs to tie Obama in the suburbs of Philadelphia (where Obama won by 200,000 votes in 2008), outperform John McCain in the western part of the state, and win the turnout battle.

1. Romney will not only tie Obama in place like Buck County, he will likely win them rather comfortably.

2. Romney will win Western PA in a rout. This is where Jay Cost is from, said the same thing.

3. Obama has several turnout issues in PA:
– Western PA and Philly is still reeling from Sandy. A depressed turnout there is very likey.
– OFA turnout operation is primarily driven by paid staff. Romney’s is almost entirely volunteer based. Since Axelturd & Co never expected a close race in PA, they have very little GOTV infrasturcture on the ground. Romney has plenty.

Romney wins PA, probably by 2-3%.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

This guy smiles too much. And he seems to be some weird ventriloquist.

hisfrogness on November 1, 2012 at 2:16 PM

I predict Obama has so maxed out his moderate democrat supporters, and they are so discouraged with him that they will probably stay home.

portlandon on November 1, 2012 at 2:12 PM

I’m sure it’s depressing to be a Dem, especially in Pennsylvania. Why vote for the biggest loser? Better to just stay home than to vote for Obama.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Romney wins PA, probably by 2-3%.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

If true, that would put R/R in the 305 EV range.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 2:17 PM

– OFA turnout operation is primarily driven by paid staff. Romney’s is almost entirely volunteer based. Since Axelturd & Co never expected a close race in PA, they have very little GOTV infrasturcture on the ground. Romney has plenty.

Romney wins PA, probably by 2-3%.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

This point here seem to me to be the truly critical factor.

Doomberg on November 1, 2012 at 2:18 PM

I always screen my calls, especially the ones that come up on Caller ID with the number “unavailable” or “private caller.” But lately, I’ve been answering all calls on my home phone in the hopes that it’s a pollster calling to ask who I plan to vote for.

Unfortunately, most of the time it’s some group asking for campaign contributions, or some charity asking for a donation.

Oh well, as I have said before, the only poll that really matters is the final tally of votes on Nov 6.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

How’s Tom Smith’s senate race going?

parteagirl on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Barack Obama’s performance in every district had dropped significantly from 2008 — an average decline of seven points

He’s all done. Finished. Zero won’t win.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

There better not be sample bias on the Nov 6 poll!

Remember Benghazi!
and Obamacare
and auto bailout
and Green Revolution
and Churchil bust
and Netanyahu snub
and world apology tour
and proudest moment in Moochelle’s life
and fuel prices necessarily skyrocketing
and corpsemen
and waffle eating
and pushing grandma off the cliff
and those stupid foam greek columns
…ad nauseum…

and how great this country is despite this loser

freedomfirst on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I predict Obama has so maxed out his moderate democrat supporters, and they are so discouraged with him that they will probably stay home.

portlandon on November 1, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Psychologically speaking, it makes a whole lot of sense.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

OT: DIdn’t Donald Trump’s revised deadline at noon eastern time to release his college transcripts just expire? Hello? I hope for his sake, he already has them…

parteagirl on November 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Trump issued a statement.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 2:21 PM

If PA goes Obama he will lose the electoral vote. He’ll have to find another way to earn a second term.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Um…. earn a second term?

Sorry, sweetie, there’s nothing this guy can do at this point to earn a second term. He can lie, cheat and steal his way to a second term, but he will never have actually earned it.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Romney wins PA, probably by 2-3%.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

If true, that would put R/R in the 305 EV range.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Actually if true – it would mean Wisconsin and Michigan would have been close also. As with all other signs, this is reason for optimism, and there is not one single sign or reason to feel down or pessimistic. But as UltimateBob said, the only poll that counts is on Tuesday.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

If PA goes Obama he will lose the electoral vote. He’ll have to find another way to earn a second term.
akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

Were you born that smart or did you become that way by playing goalie in hockey without a mask?

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

I say a 0.15% edgy win in PA for R&R, and I see a lot of employed lawyers in the state’s future.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I won’t be satisfied with anything less than an electoral smack down.

Wigglesworth on November 1, 2012 at 2:26 PM

How’s Tom Smith’s senate race going?

parteagirl on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I don’t know, but the Tom Smith commercials are outnumbering the Bob Casey commercials in the Philadelphia area by about 10 to 1 (just my seat-of-the-pants impression). Smith has a really good message, the coal miner turned businessman who is fed up with Washington and wants to go there and make some changes.

I hope Tom Smith crushes that worthless loser Casey.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:27 PM

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

…so you are changing from goats to camels!

KOOLAID2 on November 1, 2012 at 2:29 PM

It’s a shame this guy and the truth get’s drowned out by the shrieking libs, who refuse to deal with the real world. The Skew does matter! The Sampling does matter! The way and the order in which you ask the questions, does matter! You can’t change the way you do Math, but you can change the formula you use.
Addendum on the fight against the Obama Enemy media: http://paratisiusa.blogspot.com/2012/09/an-open-letter-to-those-who-should-know.html?spref=tw

God Bless America!

paratisi on November 1, 2012 at 2:30 PM

I say a 0.15% edgy win in PA for R&R, and I see a lot of employed lawyers in the state’s future.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I know one thing, there are at least two more lawyers who I want to see unemployed as a result of the upcoming election.

Their names are Barack and Michelle 0bama.

Hillary Clinton, too. As a bonus.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Anyone have an idea abot real storm damage, gas lines, lack of supplies etc. in E. Penn and or Philly? Not seeing any stories of damage and anger except NY and NJ.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:32 PM

Rush just said the d in charge in FL has asked the governor to extend the early voting till Sunday? I can’t find the link yet. Rush said the funny stuff is already starting(not direct quote)!
L

letget on November 1, 2012 at 2:32 PM

I won’t be satisfied with anything less than an electoral smack down.

Wigglesworth on November 1, 2012 at 2:26 PM

I would. Just win. Four touchdowns or a last-second field goal. It doesn’t matter to me.

Nick_Angel on November 1, 2012 at 2:33 PM

How’s Tom Smith’s senate race going?

parteagirl on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

I don’t know, but the Tom Smith commercials are outnumbering the Bob Casey commercials in the Philadelphia area by about 10 to 1 (just my seat-of-the-pants impression). Smith has a really good message, the coal miner turned businessman who is fed up with Washington and wants to go there and make some changes.

I hope Tom Smith crushes that worthless loser Casey.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:27 PM

The last Ras poll has Casey up by only 1%…46& to 45% and that was last week. Smith’s working man coal miner background is pulling in a lot of voters. All Casey has is his name. Smith has been stressing that Casey has done nothing since taking office.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Their names are Barack and Michelle 0bama.

Hillary Clinton, too. As a bonus.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Michelle voluntarily gave up her license in exchange for an insurance fraud investigation being dropped. She won’t be a lawyer ever again.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

I say a 0.15% edgy win in PA for R&R, and I see a lot of employed lawyers in the state’s future.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 2:26 PM

If it’s that close in PA, it won’t even matter as Romney will have won Ohio anyway.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Casey has done nothing since taking office.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Casey struck out?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

It doesn’t matter to me.

Nick_Angel on November 1, 2012 at 2:33 PM

Down ballot races

agenda

putting fear into remaining democrats

It should matter to every one. Even in the states that don’t look to be competitive.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 2:35 PM

If PA goes Obama he will lose the electoral vote. He’ll have to find another way to earn a second term.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

.
The Marxist Naked Emperor hasn’t earned anything in his life- except maybe for his lying, corrupt reputation.

(John Houseman smiling)

FlaMurph on November 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Michelle voluntarily gave up her license in exchange for an insurance fraud investigation being dropped. She won’t be a lawyer ever again.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

.
The ties that bind…………….

FlaMurph on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Pennsylvania = Coal

GarandFan on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

As a former 31-year resident of PA, three things will be key issues in Romney/Ryan’s favor (in addition to the economy/jobs):

1) Coal & fracking (PA is huge in the rustbelt thru to WVa & OH)

2) Heavy Catholic population, and how the ObamaCare mandate affects Catholic hospitals.

It also helps that Ryan (Catholic) is on the ticket.

Also, they still remember the “they cling to their guns and religion” comment from four years ago, which links #2 above with #3 below…

3) Guns. PA has the highest NRA membership of any state in the USofA, and is not too keen on more and more gun ownership restrictions.

Add to those the fact that (R)’s hold majorities in both chambers of the state house legislature, and the Governor’s office, plus have (R) Toomey in one Senate seat, and (D) Casey Jr is currently tied in the polls with (R) Smith for the other seat.

Then toss in with all of this the economy and jobs fiasco of the last four years, and well… you know.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

One thing in PA, the Demes have flooded mailboxes with ads for a lot of the candidates. Mail political ads never work and irritate people who have to get rid of them. Not sure who thought that was a good idea, but I doubt it’s working as they planned.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Casey struck out?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

There are lots of people in PA who would love to see that headline.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:40 PM

https://twitter.com/SalenaZitoTrib

@SalenaZitoTrib

Paul Ryan will be in Middletown Pennsylvania Saturday I suspect a Clinton or Biden visit will be announced soon.

@SalenaZitoTrib

Rubio in Delaware County 2nite 4 whats turning out to be a big rally if PA flips keep an eye on Bucks/Chester/Delaware to make it happen

INC on November 1, 2012 at 2:41 PM

Were you born that smart or did you become that way by playing goalie in hockey without a mask?

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

No cup either :)

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 2:41 PM

3) Guns. PA has the highest NRA membership of any state in the USofA, and is not too keen on more and more gun ownership restrictions.

Add to those the fact that (R)’s hold majorities in both chambers of the state house legislature, and the Governor’s office, plus have (R) Toomey in one Senate seat, and (D) Casey Jr is currently tied in the polls with (R) Smith for the other seat.

Then toss in with all of this the economy and jobs fiasco of the last four years, and well… you know.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Would not have guessed that. I figured it would be an in-betweener kind of place.

Do the Amish vote? And if they do, is the assumption that it’s mostly R correct? And what kind of numbers of Amish population?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

LOL!

chelie on November 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

oldroy,

As of yesterday there were about 300,000 people in this area without power. Coming back relatively quickly, so much so that the governor said we are in good enough shape to offer help to New Jersey.

My guess is everyone will be back on the grid by Tuesday.

littleoldlady on November 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

3) Guns. PA has the highest NRA membership of any state in the USofA, and is not too keen on more and more gun ownership restrictions.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

No kidding….I don’t know of another state where the first day of deer hunting is a state holiday.

Always enjoyed the 5 day weekend at Thanksgiving growing up.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 2:44 PM

There are lots of people in PA who would love to see that headline.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:40 PM

No joy in Muddville Johnstown (Philly, etc. etc.), the Mighty Casey has struck out?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:47 PM

One thing in PA, the Demes have flooded mailboxes with ads for a lot of the candidates. Mail political ads never work and irritate people who have to get rid of them. Not sure who thought that was a good idea, but I doubt it’s working as they planned.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Rush just said that there is $6M in Romney money flooding into the state. To me, that doesn’t sound like a candidate who thinks PA is a lost cause.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 2:48 PM

No kidding….I don’t know of another state where the first day of deer hunting is a state holiday.

Always enjoyed the 5 day weekend at Thanksgiving growing up.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 2:44 PM

It used to be that way in Ohio. I believe there are still some schools in Southern and Southeastern Ohio that give students that day off.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 2:48 PM

littleoldlady on November 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Wouldn’t that be great. Neighbours helping Neighbours – instead of blaming things on the Red Cross.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:50 PM

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 2:24 PM

He must have eaten a lot of paint chips as a child.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 2:52 PM

In Delaware County (one of those all-important suburbs of Philadelphia) I am getting 2-to-1 R-to-D mailers. DAILY. And have been for several weeks.

littleoldlady on November 1, 2012 at 2:52 PM

If it’s that close in PA, it won’t even matter as Romney will have won Ohio anyway.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 2:34 PM

Don’t be so sure about that. Obama fine-tuned his Ohio GOTV horde and pumped the state full of goodies, bailout money, and cross-state voters, whereas PA and MI were left hanging out. The outcome of this EV may be resolved in quite an unexpected way.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 2:58 PM

3) Guns. PA has the highest NRA membership of any state in the USofA, and is not too keen on more and more gun ownership restrictions.

Add to those the fact that (R)’s hold majorities in both chambers of the state house legislature, and the Governor’s office, plus have (R) Toomey in one Senate seat, and (D) Casey Jr is currently tied in the polls with (R) Smith for the other seat.

Then toss in with all of this the economy and jobs fiasco of the last four years, and well… you know.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Would not have guessed that. I figured it would be an in-betweener kind of place.

Do the Amish vote? And if they do, is the assumption that it’s mostly R correct? And what kind of numbers of Amish population?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

It is an in-betweener place, but the last few years it’s moved more to the right (not a lot, but enough so).

3) Guns. PA has the highest NRA membership of any state in the USofA, and is not too keen on more and more gun ownership restrictions.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

No kidding….I don’t know of another state where the first day of deer hunting is a state holiday.

Always enjoyed the 5 day weekend at Thanksgiving growing up.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 2:44 PM

Yep! LOL. I come from a family of hunters. Saturday after Thanksgiving was when my dad, brothers, uncles, friends, etc. would drive up state to get ready for that Monday – the first day of 2-week buck season.

TrubadorMike on November 1, 2012 at 3:03 PM

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

The Amish do not vote and the Mennonite groups typically do not vote either. There is a large variation in the groups of Mennonite though, so you cannot pigeon hole them into any category.

And yes, the first day or two of deer season is a holiday across a large swath of the state. When I was in school several decades ago, we had two days off, but now it is down to one in the same school district. Business shut down, contractors won’t be on the job site, you don’t schedule anything for the beginning of the week. We take our hunting seriously.

Mitt should concentrate some of his advertising in the Scranton and Wilke-Barre area. Several TV stations broadcast out of that region and it reaches all the way down to central PA. This will pick up large Catholic areas as well as the coal mining region. This area is ripe for conservative votes. It is a shame that the rest of the state has to battle against the votes in the Philly area.

CBP on November 1, 2012 at 3:04 PM

It is a shame that the rest of the state has to battle against the votes in the Philly area.

CBP on November 1, 2012 at 3:04 PM

I am in favor of chopping off Philadelphia and letting it float down the Delaware River and out to sea.

Maybe it can float across the Atlantic and become part of France or something.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 3:09 PM

He’ll have to find another way to earn a second term.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 2:13 PM

He’s never had to “earn” anything.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 3:09 PM

One thing in PA, the Demes have flooded mailboxes with ads for a lot of the candidates. Mail political ads never work and irritate people who have to get rid of them. Not sure who thought that was a good idea, but I doubt it’s working as they planned.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:37 PM

Same thing happening here in NH. They make great fire starters, though.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Same thing happening here in NH. They make great fire starters, though.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 3:12 PM

Rough weather from the storm?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 3:14 PM

What do the Amish think of a Mormon presidential candidate?

Some Amish do vote, but the number is very low. From the article it appears those that do vote will definitely be voting for Romney. Obama has too many policies with which they vehemently disagree.

INC on November 1, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Don’t be so sure about that. Obama fine-tuned his Ohio GOTV horde and pumped the state full of goodies, bailout money, and cross-state voters, whereas PA and MI were left hanging out. The outcome of this EV may be resolved in quite an unexpected way.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 2:58 PM

As a former Ohio resident with roots still firmly in the state, I wish this lie would stop. There is a reason Obama has been going mostly to college campuses when he does visit Ohio. There is no broad support for Obama in Ohio. The auto industry in Ohio is dominated by Honda, not GM.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 3:18 PM

The Amish – the original survivalists. Sensible folks. Self-reliant. Help their neighbours. We could all learn a lot from them.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 3:19 PM

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

Our county was one of a couple that went entirely red in the row offices in 2010, dislodging a 50-year Dem presence.

I remember the quiet determination with which people went to the polls then and their unspoken disgust with the Democrats at the state level as well as nationally.

That attitude has only grown exponentially.

There are quite a few Reagan Dems here; conservative in outlook, but identify with that party because their parents or grandparents were Democrats. One of these days, they may wake up, and like Susanna Martinez in New Mexico, realize they were Republicans all along.

PatriotGal2257 on November 1, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Gumby, if Obama is so far ahead in state polls, which are oversampling Democrats or, perhaps, I should say that they are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than in 2008 v national polls, which have a more realistic turnout model, why isn’t this Democratic advantage showing up in the House races?

One would think that Democrats would be on the verge of sweeping out a majority of the Tea Party Congressmen and retaking the House, if Democratic turnout was going to be as strong or stronger than in 2008.

A funny thing is happening though. Almost all of the Tea Party Congressmen are going to be safely reelected.

What’s up with that?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 3:22 PM

What’s up with that?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 3:22 PM

Do you really expect an answer?

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 3:24 PM

PatriotGal2257 on November 1, 2012 at 3:20 PM

Yes. It’s about values, not a letter on your registration. That said – I wish the R letter meant more about those values the founders espoused – self-reliance, independence, thrift, common-sense.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Casey has done nothing since taking office.

Deanna on November 1, 2012 at 2:33 PM

What else is new? Oh that he didn’t leave mid-term to run for another office I guess.

Do the Amish vote? And if they do, is the assumption that it’s mostly R correct? And what kind of numbers of Amish population?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I’m not sure before 2004 but I know Bush and the Republicans made a huge effort to turn out the Amish vote in 2004 and at least 2010. You’re talking about 100,000 or so votes in each state and it would have to go mostly Republican giving their counties’ vote totals. So of course in close elections they can matter, they almost accounted for the entirity of Bush’s 2004 win in Ohio and Kasich and Toomey’s wins in 2010.

jarodea on November 1, 2012 at 3:26 PM

There is no broad support for Obama in Ohio. The auto industry in Ohio is dominated by Honda, not GM.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 3:18 PM

Obama doesn’t need broad support in Ohio. All he needs is to ramp up votes in urban areas of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. Throw in students, public employees, and a few hundred thousand lizard people, and Obama’s all set.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 3:28 PM

There’s also a GOP state rep in my district who is well-liked — even by the Dems, who have support signs for him up all around the area — who is running for another term.

His opponent is a smarmy, officious oaf who has been the mouthpiece for some people who are rabidly anti-fracking technology [eyes rolling upward]. Recently, there was a story in the local paper about how much money communities were receiving back from the gas rights profits from the Marcellus shale wells, and this guy is still busy yammering that it’s dangerous, etc. etc. etc. and it should be stopped.

I have a feeling he’s not going to win. Ha!

PatriotGal2257 on November 1, 2012 at 3:29 PM

PA is going Romney all suburbs are going red

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 2:04 PM

That’s not what the voices in Gumby’s head said.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Gumby, if Obama is so far ahead in state polls, which are oversampling Democrats or, perhaps, I should say that they are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than in 2008 v national polls, which have a more realistic turnout model, why isn’t this Democratic advantage showing up in the House races?

Doohhh.. I thought we were going to have a Gumby free post and threads.

I wonder if we could release the Kraken on Gumby? I originally proposed releasing the Kraken on Axlerod, Messina and Cutter. The Kraken was intrigued by Axlerod even though he (Axlerod) was not a virgin female, however he refused Cutter on some sort of “standards” issue – so maybe there is room to use Gumby as tribute to the Kraken….

You would think a Kraken would just go for a warm body….

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Do you really expect an answer?

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 3:24 PM

No. I just keep asking the questions. His failure to answer is evidence of how little faith he actually has in the predictive abilities of the polls that he cites.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 3:32 PM

What do the Amish think of a Mormon presidential candidate?

Some Amish do vote, but the number is very low. From the article it appears those that do vote will definitely be voting for Romney. Obama has too many policies with which they vehemently disagree.

INC on November 1, 2012 at 3:16 PM

I stand corrected. Interesting point about photo ID that I hadn’t though about. I work with the Mennonite community rather than the Amish in my area, although there are definite similarities in the two groups. Hopefully both groups will break tradition and provide support to Romney.

CBP on November 1, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Whoops, read the wrong numbers above, 250k Amish altogether, with a little over 100k in Ohio and a little under 100k in Pennsylvania. They account for around 50k votes each and therefore are only about half of the wins mentioned.

The Amish do not vote and the Mennonite groups typically do not vote either. There is a large variation in the groups of Mennonite though, so you cannot pigeon hole them into any category.

And yes, the first day or two of deer season is a holiday across a large swath of the state. When I was in school several decades ago, we had two days off, but now it is down to one in the same school district. Business shut down, contractors won’t be on the job site, you don’t schedule anything for the beginning of the week. We take our hunting seriously.

Mitt should concentrate some of his advertising in the Scranton and Wilke-Barre area. Several TV stations broadcast out of that region and it reaches all the way down to central PA. This will pick up large Catholic areas as well as the coal mining region. This area is ripe for conservative votes. It is a shame that the rest of the state has to battle against the votes in the Philly area.

CBP on November 1, 2012 at 3:04 PM

Also incorrect, Holmes county Ohio has the highest concentration of Amish with about half of it’s population being Amish. Accounting for them having many more children, Holmes County registrations and turnout weren’t that much lower. So yes the Amish don’t turn out to the same extent but they do vote.

jarodea on November 1, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Obama doesn’t need broad support in Ohio. All he needs is to ramp up votes in urban areas of Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati. Throw in students, public employees, and a few hundred thousand lizard people, and Obama’s all set.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 3:28 PM

If that were the case PA and MI wouldn’t be close. You need some level of broad support regardless to win any state to the left of MI or so.

jarodea on November 1, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Romney is going to smash Obama and it’s been that way for weeks on end. We ARE winning solidly! Seeing some of you calling out “gumby” isn’t helpful. Has he really got you that spooked?

STOP FEEDING THE TROLLS! What is wrong with you people that keep bringing up the trolls? Can’t you help yourselves? What a bunch of dolts…..

UpTheCreek on November 1, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

Thoughtful analysis.

I hope you don’t wind up with lefse on your face.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Do the Amish vote? And if they do, is the assumption that it’s mostly R correct? And what kind of numbers of Amish population?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I tried to find it, but I couldn’t, an Amish buggy with at huge Romney/Ryan sign on the side! Someone here posted it within the last week, but I can’t remember what story it was in.

Night Owl on November 1, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Do the Amish vote? And if they do, is the assumption that it’s mostly R correct? And what kind of numbers of Amish population?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 2:42 PM

I don’t believe the Amish vote, as they don’t consider themselves involved in the affairs of “the English” as they call us.

Monkeytoe on November 1, 2012 at 5:07 PM

There are certain polls I always ignore…Marist…NBC…and PPP are among them.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Looks like Mittens will be in PA on Sun :) it’s linked on Drudge…..hmm…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:39 PM

Mr. Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling & Research, is a very well spoken and knowledgeable gentleman. I am very impressed at his candor and his honesty in the statistical approach to his polling.

Excellent and informative interview, Ed!

I, for one, want more!

CiLH1 on November 1, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Yes. It’s about values, not a letter on your registration. That said – I wish the R letter meant more about those values the founders espoused – self-reliance, independence, thrift, common-sense.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Yes and yes. I wish that some of the Reagan Dems I know would quit believing the perceived wisdom that the Democrat party is somehow more for “ordinary people,” or “the little guy.” That perception went out the window decades/centuries ago, and even then, I suspect it was made up out of whole cloth to build toward what we have now: groups of aggrieved people who think they are entitled to something, anything from the government.

PatriotGal2257 on November 1, 2012 at 6:53 PM

regardless he’ll get a second term one way or another

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 7:51 PM