Romney to campaign in Pennsylvania on Sunday

posted at 7:21 pm on November 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Lefties are snarking on Twitter that McCain did some late campaigning in Pennsylvania too and it worked out smashingly for him. Right, but McCain was down nearly seven points nationally at the time. There was little opportunity cost to playing a longshot instead of spending a few extra hours in a swing state because there weren’t enough true swing states left to get him to 270. Romney’s in a hugely different situation. His final schedule as of this morning:

Per the RCP state averages, he’s within two points in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado, and he leads slightly in Virginia. If he’s passing on an extra trip to one of those states to spend time in Pennsylvania, it has to be because he thinks he has some small but real chance to win, not just because a la McCain he’s hoping to give Republicans a shot of enthusiasm by making a cameo on Obama turf.

Mitt Romney plans to campaign in Pennsylvania this weekend, the clearest indicator yet that the Republican nominee believes he can snatch the state and its 20 electoral votes from President Obama.

Two campaign officials confirmed that Romney would stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday amid a cross-country tour of battleground states. His running mate, Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.), has scheduled a campaign stop in Harrisburg, Pa., on Saturday…

“Our campaign’s decision to travel to and campaign in Pennsylvania is just the latest example of how the race is breaking toward Governor Romney and allowing our campaign to be on offense. President Obama is playing defense in states once considered safely in his column,” said a Romney campaign adviser, who requested anonymity because the candidate’s travel plans have not been announced.

The GOP leads by nearly 20 percent in absentee ballots returned in Pennsylvania, a huge increase over 2008 and probably one of things that’s lured them in there. I’m surprised to see no visits to Nevada or Minnesota planned, though. (Maybe they’ll be added on Sunday.) Nevada’s always been favored to go blue, but it’s a crucial state potentially: If Romney takes Florida, Virginia, and Colorado, then he could lose both Ohio and Wisconsin and still win the presidency by winning Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Iowa is very much in play and the fact that Romney’s making two trips to New Hampshire this weekend tells you all you need to know about that. Nevada is trickier, but Jon Ralston thinks Romney still has a shot:

Hopefully there’s time to squeeze in a visit as part of the Plan C path to 270. As for Minnesota, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar made a solid case earlier today that if any midwestern state should be fertile ground for a Romney upset, it’s this one:

Minnesota’s worth 10 electoral votes, the same as Wisconsin, so you could swap it right into Romney’s Plan B as potentially decisive in combination with wins in Iowa or New Hampshire.

As for Ohio, an internal Citizens United poll has Romney up three even as independent polls of the state show a two- to three-point Obama lead. Any chance that those independent polls in key battleground stats are wrong? Actually, yes, says HuffPo analyst Mark Blumenthal: Given the closeness of the race, there’s roughly a one in three chance that Ohio or Wisconsin or some other potentially decisive state will surprise, which may be all that Romney needs to hit 270. The great X factor, as usual, is turnout. If you think this is a typical D+3 election, then The One’s in good shape. If, like Gallup and Rasmussen, you think this is more like 2004, with a huge Republican surge eliminating the traditional Democratic advantage, then Romney’s the next president. For what it’s worth, Ramesh Ponnuru reports that the GOP insiders he’s spoken to lately — many of them unaffiliated with Romney’s campaign — really do seem to believe he’s going to pull this out. It’s not a pep talk for the base to goose enthusiasm. They just like what they’re seeing in the numbers, presumably/especially the numbers for independents.

Oh, almost forgot: The new ABC/WaPo tracker has the race within seven-hundredths of one percent. Second look at hanging chads?


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Gumby, you’ve said Obama has “surged” multiple times in Oct, yet you’ve always been wrong.

Obama is bleeding indys in multiple polls, and yet you cling to that WaPo as “proof” that he’s surging.

You’re a fraud. Just shut up.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 9:58 PM

I think I may have one as well (In MN). I’ll keep working on him (coworker) over the next couple days.

Othniel on November 1, 2012 at 7:38 PM

We’re not allowed to discuss politics at work. Probably because there’s a big-time O-head in medical records.

disa on November 1, 2012 at 10:02 PM

Well I do have nice legs ;)

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I know, they’re very pretty. ;-)

TXUS on November 1, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Hey. Why haven’t I seen these spectacular legs?! Conservatives are hotties, so I feel like I’m really missing something here!

;)

stvnscott on November 1, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Been looking at pics of Romney’s rallies. They are HUGE!!! He gets 10K, even 15K+ audience often and everywhere he goes that is smaller, it’s overflowed.

If it keeps going like this and Cook county isn’t as fraudulent as they usually are, Mitt could take Illinois. He’ll likely end up a few points behind, but that just shows the trend that’s going on right now.

I’m predicting ~380 EV for Romney. I think he takes all swing states + one or two surprise blue states.

MrX on November 1, 2012 at 10:04 PM

Just saw on Twitter that word is the Sunday rally will be in Lower Makefield, Bucks County!!!

rockmom on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 PM

Well I do have nice legs ;)

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I know, they’re very pretty. ;-)

TXUS on November 1, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Hey. Why haven’t I seen these spectacular legs?! Conservatives are hotties, so I feel like I’m really missing something here!

;)

stvnscott on November 1, 2012 at 10:03 PM

Word?

Tenwheeler on November 1, 2012 at 10:08 PM

What gumby thinks will lead to an O landslide.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 PM

Nov 1, 2012 8:00pm
‘We Need Food, We Need Clothing’: Staten Island Residents Plead for Help 3 Days After Sandy

I can not understand why they are not dropping supplies from helicopters there.

That was one of the things they did in NO.

I mean, DO SOMETHING!

Barred on November 1, 2012 at 8:44 PM

If you will recall, Katrina took a few days to fully wind up. Stand by. By Monday the East Coast in pockets will be a cluster f%ck. Say what you want about Christie. He was probably laying the groundwork for the hell storm to come. You want it Champ, here it comes.

Tenwheeler on November 1, 2012 at 10:14 PM

“Slow the rise of the oceans my a##.

How’s that working out?

Fail.

Romney’s the one we’re waiting for.

Tenwheeler on November 1, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Its a proven fact that Gumby is Greg from Ace of Spades, now permanently banned there. His ISP is in the Chicago Metro area. He is an admitted Obama campaign employee.

Guess you HotAir Mods enjoy his spam. Ace didn’t.

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Can you show me the thread on Ace? I wanna check that out.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:23 PM

Its a proven fact that Gumby is Greg from Ace of Spades, now permanently banned there. His ISP is in the Chicago Metro area. He is an admitted Obama campaign employee.

Guess you HotAir Mods enjoy his spam. Ace didn’t.

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

I hope it’s true and the mods here ban him, every thread turns into a hijacked thread

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Painting PA red is gonna be sweet. Can already smell the beautiful looking coal coming out of the Mother Earth! or (Gaia) :)

hawkman on November 1, 2012 at 10:41 PM

I hope it’s true and the mods here ban him, every thread turns into a hijacked thread

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

The mods are welcome to check my IP and it will show I’m in Wisconsin, just like I’ve said.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:59 PM

Hey all, I’ll try my best to provide firsthand account of Mitt in PA this Sunday. We live 5 minutes from the farm where he’ll be speaking. I imagine it will be packed – but like the better half says “Oh, we are so going”. I’m psyched that he’s coming here – suburbs of Phila and nestled along the NJ border. Stay tuned…

nt

NumberTwo on November 1, 2012 at 11:21 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:59 PM

So how was the camp out at the capitol building? What does miserable failure feel like?

stvnscott on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 PM

So how was the camp out at the capitol building? What does miserable failure feel like?

stvnscott on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Oh my, is this morbidly obese slob HA’s Gum-Me? Union Protesters

slickwillie2001 on November 1, 2012 at 11:32 PM

whatever gumby greg, how does it feel to be employed by the Obama campaign that has turned into a SCOAMF, just like your messiah? You can drop the Wisconsin BS, Ace proved not only who you are but where you are. Be thankful you haaven’t had company yet.

Have fun Greggy. How does it feel to be an internet Joke?

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 11:36 PM

I hereby pledge that if Romney loses all three of Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Michigan, I will personally shave Axelrod’s moustache of 40 years live on the Morning Joe.

bobcalco on November 2, 2012 at 12:12 AM

whatever gumby greg, how does it feel to be employed by the Obama campaign that has turned into a SCOAMF, just like your messiah? You can drop the Wisconsin BS, Ace proved not only who you are but where you are. Be thankful you haaven’t had company yet.

Have fun Greggy. How does it feel to be an internet Joke?

Dick Nixon on November 1, 2012 at 11:36 PM

Do you know how many “Greg” posters there are over there, lol? It’s all incredibly amusing. And I’m still there, too.

My IP address is here for anyone to check and they will find I’m in good old Wisconsin.

BTW, you might want to hold off on believing anything “Ace” has to say. The guy is a fraud and intentionally deceived all of his readers in 08 by insisting McCain still had a realistic chance to win and kept up the charade throughout election day. He and CAC will never tell you the truth about the accurate state of a race.

gumbyandpokey on November 2, 2012 at 12:18 AM

Why is no one talking about the fact that Obama has gained two points in national polls since the storm?

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 12:26 AM

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 12:26 AM

bcuz he’s stuck at 47

gracie on November 2, 2012 at 12:31 AM

gracie on November 2, 2012 at 12:31 AM

He has gone from 47 to 49 in WaPo and PPP. Romney has stayed at 48.

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 1:21 AM

He has gone from 47 to 49 in WaPo and PPP. Romney has stayed at 48.

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 1:21 AM

The situation’s going south, with gas lines and dumpster diving. Meanwhile, little Bammie’s back on the campaign trail spewing his vile small-minded vitriol.

That bump’s gonna fade right quick.

Grace_is_sufficient on November 2, 2012 at 5:07 AM

He has gone from 47 to 49 in WaPo and PPP. Romney has stayed at 48.

mboyle1988 on November 2, 2012 at 1:21 AM

Um, yeah. They’re WaPo and PPP.
Heavily oversampled “D” polls, commisioned by/funded by Progressives = pro-Obama results.

IOW these polls are crap.

Wanna talk about them more?

massrighty on November 2, 2012 at 7:49 AM

Go red, PA! Working on my two project habitual-hereditary-Democrat coworkers daily. Making progress. It can happen.

curved space on November 2, 2012 at 8:08 AM

Michigan has a very good chance of turning red for the presidency. The information is all over the news, I believe the democrat party is in a uproar to motivate the get out the vote in Detroit. They have stepped it up big time in the last few days.

If a Romney campaign aide is reading this, I would highly suggest Mitt make a stop here this weekend to seal the deal. You can high tail it here from Toledo in approximately one hour and 20 minutes to Oakland County.

shar61 on November 2, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Gumby, you’ve said Obama has “surged” multiple times in Oct, yet you’ve always been wrong.

Obama is bleeding indys in multiple polls, and yet you cling to that WaPo as “proof” that he’s surging.

You’re a fraud. Just shut up.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 9:58 PM

Little factoid about the WAPO poll. It seems that they have caught on to the fact that the over sampling of dems doesn’t pass the sniff test. The new trick seems to be to hide registered voters in their “likely voter” screen. If you look at the internals, 79% (73% absolute and 6% probable)of respondents were likely voters. In 2008, 62.2% of eligible voters voted, 2004 – 60.7, 2000 – 55.3

So you need to take the WAPO poll and pass it through this
http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2449

Animal60 on November 2, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Hey all, I’ll try my best to provide firsthand account of Mitt in PA this Sunday. We live 5 minutes from the farm where he’ll be speaking. I imagine it will be packed – but like the better half says “Oh, we are so going”. I’m psyched that he’s coming here – suburbs of Phila and nestled along the NJ border. Stay tuned…

nt

NumberTwo on November 1, 2012 at 11:21 PM

It’ll be fun to see 15,000 people show up in the red part of PA, when Obama can’t get 3,000 people to show up in Green Bay.

eyedoc on November 2, 2012 at 9:20 AM

Ed, here’s the details:
Yardley, PA: Shady Brook Farm 5:15 PM


http://www.philly.com/philly/news/breaking/20121101_Romney_to_visit_Bucks_on_Sunday.html

blammm on November 2, 2012 at 12:35 PM

NumberTwo on November 1, 2012 at 11:21 PM

I’ll be there too. I’m about 15 minutes from there in Buckingham Township. We go to Shady Brook every year for their Christmas display.

rockmom on November 2, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Ace is no fraud. He told us all recently that back in 2008, in the run-up to what turned out to McCain’s defeat, he was cheerleading to rally the troops, but that’s hardly fraud — it was an attempt to shore up morale. I think everybody here, even those who disliked McCain, remembers how it felt to have Obagman win.

And moreover, the only reason scumbyandpukey even knows about it is that Ace said it himself, so don’t give scumby any credit for detective work.

Mary in LA on November 2, 2012 at 7:56 PM

I hope it’s true and the mods here ban him, every thread turns into a hijacked thread

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Every thread turns into a hijacked thread because YOU ALL KEEP FEEDING THE STINKIN’ TURD!

HiJack on November 3, 2012 at 1:20 AM

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