Rasmussen: Wisconsin tied, Romney up 1 in Iowa

posted at 3:21 pm on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Rasmussen released two big swing-state polls today, both containing mixed news for Mitt Romney.  Their surveys in Wisconsin and Iowa both show virtual or solid dead heats with just days left to go before the election.  We’ll start with the actual dead heat in Wisconsin, where Obama gets better news on early voting, and in the internals:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters finds President Obama and Mitt Romney each earning 49% support. Two percent (2%) remain undecided. …

Twenty-five percent (25%) of likely Wisconsin voters have already voted, and the president leads 56% to 41% among these voters.

Voters in the state trust Romney more than the president by just two points – 50% to 48% – when it comes to handling the economy. Obama has a three-point edge in voter trust – 50% to 47% – in the area of energy policy and leads by one – 49% to 48% – when it comes to national security. Among voters nationwide, Romney leads by seven on the economy, and the two are nearly tied in the other areas.

Let’s take a look at a couple of keys.  First, the D/R/I split is R+2, 39/37/24; in 2008, exit polls showed a D/R/I 39/33/29, in 2010 it was 37/36/28, and in June’s recall election, it was 34/35/31. The ratio between Democrats and Republicans might be accurate, but it does seem that independents get a little undercounted here.  That might be the difference, too, because independents are breaking to Obama as they did in the NBC/WSJ poll, 51/43.  That’s still a smaller advantage than Obama got in 2008, when he won independents by 19 on his way to a 14-point win. The gender gap has been completely neutralized, too, with Obama leading women 56/42 and Romney leading men by the exact same number. Still, Obama’s job approval rating is 52/48 in Wisconsin, which gives him an edge — and it’s 55/44 among indies.

How about Iowa? Romney has a one-point edge over Obama, but again Obama has a solid lead among early voters:

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters finds the Republican challenger with 49% support, while President Obama earns 48% of the vote. Two percent (2%) like someone else in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. …

A week ago, the candidates were tied at 48% apiece. The president led by two earlier in the month, while Romney posted a three-point lead in September.  Prior to the latest findings, Romney’s support in Iowa has fallen in the narrow range of 46% to 48% in surveys since June, while Obama’s support has ranged from 44% to 49%.

Forty-two percent (42%) of likely Iowa voters have already voted. The president leads 56% to 39% among these voters.

The internals here don’t look too great for Romney or Obama.  Romney’s losing independents here too, by twelve at 52/40, but he beats Obama on the economy by seven overall, 51/44, and by seven among independents, 49/42.  By a huge margin, Iowa voters want a reduction in federal spending rather than an increase to boost the economy (74/14, 75/15 among indies).  Once again, the gender gap is neutralized.

I’d consider both polls a mixed bag for both candidates.  If the GOP has a firm grip on Scott Walker’s GOTV infrastructure from June and can push the economy message in Iowa, they have a chance for two big wins — but it won’t be easy in either state.

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Comment pages: 1 2

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Sounds like a plan to me!..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Headline for Rasmussen Poll:

Obviously Biased and Inaccurate Republican pollster Shows Romney Ahead Even though He Isn’t

Headline for Democrat leaning Poll:

President ahead in a poll so accurate that we have decided to just go ahead call the election for Obama.

GadsdenRattlers on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

SparkPlug on November 1, 2012 at 4:36 PM

I hear you!!..Guess I have been reading Allahpundit too long..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Or you just like to give the trolls hope.

How very 0bama of you.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:42 PM

He has been agitated today, hasn’t he? Smells like desperation.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

He has been agitated today, hasn’t he? Smells like desperation.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

They are all riled up.

They sense the end and want to spew their crap on every one.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

As am I. Anyone care to share with me what the mood was around here the final weeks of the 2008 election?

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 4:38 PM

There was still hope, but there was very little good news on which to base it on. We were reduced to looking at McCain climbing back to the MOE in Ras as a sign he was on his way to a surprise, LOL.

But, by and large, people saw the writing on the wall.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

By the weekend, every other post will be gumby’s or one of the other Troll’s, simply trying to disrupt. The are very, very scared.

They know.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 4:47 PM

But, by and large, people saw the writing on the wall.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Yep, keeping a stiff upper lip and praying for an upset.

Not at all like the lefty trolls we have.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:48 PM

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Fifes and drums, the dirge kind. We were split into three in 08. Thank goodness there is no doppelganger in this one.

Limerick on November 1, 2012 at 4:48 PM

They know.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 4:47 PM

Well, for the most part I play on the weekends, so I will miss the fun.

But I won’t miss them.

Maybe they will take over here and the transformation will be complete.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:50 PM

How very 0bama of you.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

LoLz..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Yes, we were hoping against hope…

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 4:42 PM

But, by and large, people saw the writing on the wall.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

So the confidence level is different here this time around?

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Monty Python’s Best of Gumby Collection

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 4:53 PM

OK, time to go call my on-the-dole ex-unionized sister in law in Wisconsin and find out how truly evil this election is turning. If you open your windows you’ll be able to hear my speaker phone from at least 48 of the 50.

Limerick on November 1, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Or you just like to give the trolls hope.

How very 0bama of you.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Is Dire trolling?

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 4:58 PM

In something like 17 out of 20 polls Romney is winning Independents…why are the polls of the last couple of days different?

And I heard that a new poll on Ohio came out today that had Romney in the lead…but I have not seen it.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 4:59 PM

So the confidence level is different here this time around?

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

I think so. Everyone has their eeyorish spells, but more people this go around expect Mitt to win. In ’08, that expectation was based on nothing more than hope and Hillbuzz posts which suggested Hillary devotees would move en masse to McCain. There were NO polls to hang our hat on at this point four years ago.

Personally, I think it’s essentially tied and could go either way. Romney has a real shot at it…McCain was dead in the water.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 5:02 PM

In ’08, that expectation was based on nothing more than hope and Hillbuzz posts which suggested Hillary devotees would move en masse to McCain. There were NO polls to hang our hat on at this point four years ago.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 5:02 PM

That’s right, now I remember that. Back then I was just a lowly HotAir reader, just waiting for enrollment to open up so I could jump in and start commenting with all you grownups. :-)

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 5:12 PM

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Thanks.

Fifes and drums, the dirge kind. We were split into three in 08. Thank goodness there is no doppelganger in this one.

Limerick on November 1, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Lost in translation :(

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 5:14 PM

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 4:07 PM

No, no, no, no, no…ya’ might as well have included Burlington and the Iowa side of the Quad cities.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:15 PM

I didn’t even know were places with those names in the US :)..heck, I don’t even know where Iowa is :)…I like the one with a French flair about it, Debuque :)…is that a town?

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:16 PM

There were places that is…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Is Dire trolling?

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 4:58 PM

LoLz..:)

PS..Good evening!!..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2012 at 5:20 PM

So the confidence level is different here this time around?

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Absolutely. As you recall I am not a fan of Romney, but see nothing but an upside even had our choice been a rock in a desert. If a choice is between someone who may or not may do what has been promised and someone who is deliberately destroying this country with each passsing day to me its not even a choice, its a “must”.

Back in 2008 I told my wife the only “benefit” to Hussein’s victory is that conservatives will finally awake and take the country back on its proper course. Which seems to have pan out since.

Numbers wise, I am 99% sure that FL, OH and VA are a done deal at this point. I think that PA is 90% and probably higher, difficult to get numbers so far for PA. Even without PA that would be more than enough to stop right there, but with WI, CO and IA this should be a very different story than 2008. NH seems red now as is NV to me. Add in MO to the list and its a landslide with only true demented states to stay blue.

McLaim was our worst choice. He’s liberal lite and only turned “conservative” in 2010 to get re-elected to Senate. Only an absolute idiot would not talk Rev. Wright and Hussein’s openly communist and terrorist connections during campaign. McLaim then went back to his old self right after 2010 Senate election, no thanks to AZ voters.

So yes, the mood now is way different and expectations as well.

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 5:21 PM

PS..Good evening!!..:)

Dire Straits on November 1, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Good Evening Dire! First it was, obscene smiley faces, now trolling. Don’t you dare get banned for that Dire. Lol! ; )

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 5:29 PM

P.S. Not even one of those 1 minute bannings that are all the rage these days. : )

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 5:30 PM

This poll shows Romney ahead in Ohio. Just out today.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 5:30 PM

Debuque :)…is that a town?

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Dubuque…is a town. Debuque is a typo…

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 5:33 PM

First, the D/R/I split is R+2, 39/37/24

You still haven’t fixed this?

Count to 10 on November 1, 2012 at 5:34 PM

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Thanks for your wise input, Comrade!

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 5:41 PM

In a conference call with key backers today (01 Nov), which included comments from Gov. Romney, Neil Newhouse, Romney’s National Pollster, summarized his polling data both nationally and in key battleground states. I can say that data were quite positive and very encouraging for the Romney campaign.

TeaPartyNation on November 1, 2012 at 5:41 PM

They sense the end and want to spew their crap on every one.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:46 PM

…at this point it has gotten so bad…if they aren’t going to be banned…the monitors should require them have a doggie bag… and pick up their own crap!

KOOLAID2 on November 1, 2012 at 5:53 PM

ED: I think you are too caught up in early voting. It doesn’t count twice to early vote and just because the Obama people have the Roledex of their dependable voters from 2008 who would have voted on election day and had them vote early is different than getting sporatic voters to lock in where they would not show up on election day. I would look at others metrics Ed and not get cuaght up in early voting I think that is a red herring.

Conan on November 1, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Debuque :)…is that a town?

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Dubuque…is a town. Debuque is a typo…

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Dubuque sounded right to me too, was just merely copying and pasting from your post :)…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 6:08 PM

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 5:41 PM

I also hope that this new found conservative streak will help along with Senate races. When we only thought we may pick up 4 seats it now begins to look much better what with MO and OH being in play and probably PA as well. And hopefully other states as well. Having Harrietta Reid out of the way is a HUGE deal, not that I expect McConnell to take advantage of that. We need a clear advantage in Senate, having Ryan as decider is not good enough, IMO.

We also need to get Boehner out of the way, but again I am not that hopeful at this point. GOP MUST be changed and the sooner the better.

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Great post, and thank you for posting it.

Romney will win this in a landslide.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 6:33 PM

I realize this is off topic…but a political forum I frequent has a poster who is a media insider. He has been vetted for knowing breaking news before the rest of us hear it. He says the lead story tomorrow will be Unemployment rate falls to 7% as per Gallup…unbelievable

Txjewelya on November 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Unemployment rate falls to 7% as per Gallup…unbelievable

Txjewelya on November 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

The only real surprise that it will be reported that high and not 5%…

Crooks, all of them.

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

I realize this is off topic…but a political forum I frequent has a poster who is a media insider. He has been vetted for knowing breaking news before the rest of us hear it. He says the lead story tomorrow will be Unemployment rate falls to 7% as per Gallup…unbelievable

Txjewelya on November 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

From 7.8%? There’s no way…even their media lackeys would question a number like that. I think it’ll be 7.6, which will still be touted as awesome.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Can any Iowans explain why Iowa is always a toss-up state? I would think it would be similar to Nebraska.

midgeorgian on November 1, 2012 at 3:59 PM

University of Iowa, Iowa State University, Drake University, and plenty of private Liberal Universities. The majority of them are in the eastern half of the state, the Liberal ‘Blue’ part of Iowa. The western half of the state is very ‘red’ Conservative part of Iowa. Nebraska has it’s Liberal parts also but they are not a ‘all in’ state, they split their EV like Maine. Democrats usually get one EV out of Nebraska.

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 6:47 PM

From 7.8%? There’s no way…even their media lackeys would question a number like that. I think it’ll be 7.6, which will still be touted as awesome.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

I’m just relaying what the guy posted…FWIW he’s a tad p’d about having to report such b.s..He is legit for what I read of his posts

Txjewelya on November 1, 2012 at 6:51 PM

They didn’t have enough sense to get an Oliver…or IH…or Case, or even a MinnieMo. They had to go Deere.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 4:28 PM

They make Deere in that area, not every farmer uses Deere in that area. *sigh*

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:04 PM

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:04 PM

They made Olivers in that area (Charles City). Deere’s come from Illinois.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 7:19 PM

I didn’t even know were places with those names in the US :)..heck, I don’t even know where Iowa is :)…I like the one with a French flair about it, Debuque :)…is that a town?

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Iowa was a French territory until we bought it from the French. Iowa had several French forts for the fur trade. With the two main north/south rivers in America on each side and hundreds of rivers going thru Iowa to these transportation giants. They could get goods from the center of the state fort Des Moines to the Mississippi (the major highway of the times). Most of our cities and towns have French or Indian name as do our counties.

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:23 PM

They made Olivers in that area (Charles City). Deere’s come from Illinois.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 7:19 PM

John Deere is still a major employer in that area.
http://voices.yahoo.com/john-deere-factory-tours-more-waterloo-iowa-1989620.html?cat=16

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:29 PM

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Only because dumb Iowans bought from Illinois and let the better tractor go away. Deere just moved a factory into the void.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Deere’s come from Illinois.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 7:19 PM

I assumed from your above comment that you were unaware that Deeres were made in Iowa. John Deere is a major employer in the southeast part of Iowa. Quad Cities, Waterloo, Charles city, etc. They provide many good jobs for Iowans, we shall not worry over the fact you find them inferior.

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:42 PM

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Moline…Illinois, John Deere

Charles City…Iowa, Oliver…’til Iowans stopped buying the better tractor.

cozmo…part time Burlington river rat that commuted more times than I can remember to Fairbury Nebraska.

Seen lots of Iowa. Know lots of Iowans.

The smart Iowans mourn the loss of Oliver.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 7:55 PM

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