PPP: Golly, this VA race is close despite the electorate being 43% Democrat

posted at 10:41 am on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

I saw this poll late last night, long after getting back from walking with my granddaughters on Halloween, trick or treating in their neighborhood.  At first, I thought this new poll from PPP in Virginia was a trick, but by this morning, I considered it more of a treat:

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Virginia, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 49-46. PPP has conducted 5 Virginia polls during the month of October and found Obama leading in every single one, by an average margin of 2.8 points.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama is winning big with women (56/39), African Americans (86/11), and voters under 45 (53/41). Romney’s strong groups are men (56/40), seniors (52/45), and white voters (56/39). ….

-Obama continues to have a strong advantage over Romney on the key issues of who voters think will stand up more for the middle class (51/45) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/45). We have consistently found Obama with the edge on these measures in swing states, and it goes a long way toward explaining why he’s the favorite in most of them.

So Obama edges Romney in a virtual tie, only getting to 49% in a state that relies heavily on the federal government for its economy.  The sample here must be overwhelmingly Republican, right?  Not exactly.  The D/R/I on this poll is — wait for it — 43/36/22.  Forty-three percent of the respondents were Democrats … and Obama only gets to 49%.

Let’s remind people of what Virginia’s electorate looked like in the 2008 presidential (39/33/27) and 2009 gubernatorial (33/37/30) elections.  Is there any data out there indicating that Democrats in Virginia are about to outperform the 2009 election by almost a third — ten points?  Or that independents have either decided to stay home or shift in large numbers to the Democratic Party?  Even the flawed CBS/NYT/Q-poll released yesterday showed Republican enthusiasm seven points higher than that of Democrats in Virginia.

If an incumbent Obama can’t get to 50% in a poll where 43% of the respondents are Democrats in a state where the federal government provides as much of the economy as it does in Virginia, I’d say Obama won’t win the state on Tuesday.

Update: So far, the early voting seems to be showing a tilt away from Obama, if not toward Romney.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

gummeandpokeme…orgasim!

KOOLAID2 on November 1, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Is there any data out there indicating that Democrats in Virginia are about to outperform the 2009 election by almost a third — ten points?

gumby

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

This poll should get Nate Silver’s probability number up to 117% for Obama.

Mr. D on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?

However, I converted a lot of people to Romney this year, but I live in CA, so doesn’t really count.

Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Agreed.

listens2glenn on November 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Hello

cmsinaz on November 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

PPP needs to go out of business. They are so awful that their results have become laughable.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

-Obama continues to have a strong advantage over Romney on the key issues of who voters think will stand up more for the middle class (51/45) and who they think will do more to protect Medicare (50/45). We have consistently found Obama with the edge on these measures in swing states, and it goes a long way toward explaining why he’s the favorite in most of them.

…well then the itelligence of voters has really deminished…and continues to do so!

KOOLAID2 on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

ROFL

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?

However, I converted a lot of people to Romney this year, but I live in CA, so doesn’t really count.

Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Sure, he could win that many…if ’12 turnout resembles ’08. It all boils down to who comes out on Election Day, and there are NO indications at all that Dems will in the numbers suggested by these polls. IF they do, Obama wins…if they don’t, he’s got problems.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?
Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

One side is going to in for a very rude surprise on Tuesday night.

aunursa on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

PPP is the “weekly world news” of political polling.

crosspatch on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Ed, by this time the pollsters are usually ‘unskewing’ their data, tryign to predict a final margin as close to actual results as possible so that they can claim how accurate their methods had been all along.

What gives this week? The samples seem to be skewing wildly for Obama as the finish line approaches?

DrW on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

This poll should get Nate Silver’s probability number up to 117% for Obama.

Mr. D on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

100% certain he will assign it an arbitrary value of at least 1.8.

Nate Silver is a liberal hack that knows nothing about polls. And he is another person who needs to lose his job on Wednesday morning and never be allowed to talk about polls ever again.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

This poll should get Nate Silver’s probability number up to 117% for Obama.

Mr. D on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

You know what the dumbest thing of all with Silver’s idiotic “probability” number will be? Come next week after Romney wins, his excuse will be, “well, you realize that the flip side of Obama’s XX% probability was that Romney had 100-XX% probability, and that’s what turned out. I actually predicted this as a possibility.”

What a charlatan.

Red Cloud on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

PPP needs to go out of business. They are so awful that their results have become laughable.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Who was the pollster that was ripping off kos before they switched to PPP?

Is that pollster still around?

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?
Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM
One side is going to in for a very rude surprise on Tuesday night.

aunursa on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

And it won’t be us. Romney’s gonna win decisively.

Oink on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

What gives this week? The samples seem to be skewing wildly for Obama as the finish line approaches?

DrW on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

The one’s sticking with 0bama and skewed data bet the farm. They have to stay.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

You right wingers think every poll is a conspiracy

faraway on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?

However, I converted a lot of people to Romney this year, but I live in CA, so doesn’t really count.

Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Just read this thread and you’ll understand why. These outlets are living in a fantasy world where 2008 was not only not an anomaly, but apparently undersold how popular Obama really is.

Doughboy on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

They’re factoring widespread Democrat vote fraud.

Youngs98 on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Here comes the landslide Dick Morris is talking about. Mitt will win VA, MI,CO,NH,Ohio,PA,WI,and Iowa.

BroncosRock on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

0 has this thing in the bag people. Stand Down!

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Why not just poll all Democrats from now until the election?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

PPP is SEIU, litterally.

If you see PPP anywhere near a poll, don’t read any further.

stenwin77 on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Ed, are you trying to drive Gumbyandpokey into a frenzy?

Night Owl on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Or is it, Stand Up!

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

aunursa on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Oink on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Thanks Everyone.

Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Why not just poll all Democrats from now until the election?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

‘Cause 0bama ain’t doin’ so well with them either.

They are stickin’ with union goofs, zombies, 0bamphone users and gumby-trolls.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Obama is amazing! He’s the greatest! He’s our God! We love him!

why can’t he get to 50% in ANY poll?

WhatsRight on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

A lot of outlets showing Obama winning by getting 300 electoral votes. I don’t see how that is possible. But it’s making me nervious, is the race that close? Is Obama in the electoral vote lead?
Oil Can on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I don’t think anyone can claim an electoral vote “lead” at this point. If we’re counting Minnesota as a tossup state since both campaigns are now spending time and money there, and we’re also counting North Carolina as a tossup state because, well, they keep calling it a battleground state, the current tally is 191 for Romney, 191 for Obama.

The only candidate likely to reach 300 is Romney, based solely on his momentum (and that would still be tough). Obama tops out at 290, and I highly doubt he’ll get even that. If Obama wins, it’s by the skin of his teeth.

Red Cloud on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

For anyone worried that maybe, just maybe, the pollsters are right and there really is going to be a 2008 or thereabouts Democrat skew to the electorate. The media would be talking right now about an endangered GOP House majority. If there was going to be a D+5 or D+8 there would now be a boat load of House Republicans fighting for their political lives. The GOP House majority is not endangered. It’s not even close.

That’s all you need to know about whether state polls are more accurate than the national ones.

Just get out and vote for Romney, and bring a friend.

jrgdds on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

OT: More Than A Dozen Fisker Karma Hybrids Caught Fire And Exploded In New Jersey Port After Sandy

$1.6 million of stimulus for 16 cars, up in smoke

faraway on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Just read this thread and you’ll understand why. These outlets are living in a fantasy world where 2008 was not only not an anomaly, but apparently undersold how popular Obama really is.

Doughboy on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

The issue is that they are living in a fantasy world where they believe that Obama literally changed the electorate. If 2010 didn’t happen I would have said that this could be entirely possible, the problem is, 2010 did happen.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

What gives this week? The samples seem to be skewing wildly for Obama as the finish line approaches?

They’re going “all in” for Obama. They don’t care about their reputations anymore, now it’s simply all about surpressing Republican enthusiasm.

The game changed post-debate-one. The MSM (and I include most pollsters in the MSM) has a vested interest in seeing Obama win, and no amount of evidence is going to sway them from the path they’re on.

crazy_legs on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

it makes perfect sense Ed cause so many Repubs claim they are independent when they really aren’t ,the keys to this poll are twofold … first Florida and Virginia are still in play even though Romney fans were claiming last week it was over and yet another battleground poll supporting a clear trend …President Obama is winning

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Yep, if only Democrats show up on Election Day Obama has a pretty good shot of winning this thing.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Been to the Dominican lately?

faraway on November 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Ed, by this time the pollsters are usually ‘unskewing’ their data, tryign to predict a final margin as close to actual results as possible so that they can claim how accurate their methods had been all along.

What gives this week? The samples seem to be skewing wildly for Obama as the finish line approaches?

DrW on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

I don’t think they care as much about credibility as we’d like to think…they know that whatever results they show, particularly if a Dem is ahead, will be trumpeted by media outlets, and that’s all they’re after.

Beyond that, though, early voting is skewing the likely voter screens, making these polls more like samples of RVs than anything else. Polling outfits with a more stringent screen, like Gallup, show a bigger Romney lead. That’s no accident…it’s because they’re better at sorting out those who are less likely to cast a ballot.

Consider that, among those more certain to vote, Romney has an advantage. There’s also more enthusiasm on the GOP side, and the electorate is MORE Republican than it was in ’08. Most of these polls are NOT taking those things into account and are instead just publishing results based on an ’08 model. Kudos to Obama if he’s able to get a D +7 electorate again…if he does, Romney loses. But all the evidence suggests that isn’t happening.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

PPP’s latest polls are for HCAN, which is all you need to know about that.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Ed, are you trying to drive Gumbyandpokey into a frenzy?

Night Owl on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Troll baiting is good for site traffic, you know.

I, for one, am experiencing poll (and troll) overload. This race is tight, the polls keep going back and forth, and you’d go insane trying to keep up.

There’s only one poll that really matters, and that is the actual election. So until next Tuesday, I’m just going to tune out all this noise.

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The thing that I find amusing is all the polling firms sticking around Fl. It must be close. What’s that?………………never mind.

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Gumby: “My Brain Hurts!”

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

The issue is that they are living in a fantasy world where they believe that Obama literally changed the electorate. If 2010 didn’t happen I would have said that this could be entirely possible, the problem is, 2010 did happen.

MobileVideoEngineer on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

I could almost cut them some slack on assuming a 2008-style turnout despite the results of 2010. What’s insulting though is the insinuation that Dems will be out in even higher numbers than 2008 while even more Republicans stay home. Even before Romney’s first debate performance, no sane person could realistically make that claim.

Doughboy on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

ROFL

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

RALF… fifm…

Scrumpy on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

The D/R/I on this poll is — wait for it — 43/36/22. Forty-three percent of the respondents were Democrats … and Obama only gets to 49%.

Obama got 49 – 43 = 6% of the sample from Indies, while Romney got 46 – 37 = 9% of the sample from Indies. If we ignore the round-off error (43 + 36 + 22 = 101), Romney got 9/22 = 41% of Indies, while Obama got only 6/22 = 27% of Indies. If Indies are really 30% of the electorate, a 14% lead among them is about 4% of the total electorate. If the Democrat turnout advantage is less than D+4 (or if Republicans turn out more than Democrats), Romney wins.

Steve Z on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

PPP needs to go out of business. They are so awful that their results have become laughable.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Why should they go out of business? They’re doing what they are paid to do, which is produce fake polls in order to create a certain narrative that they want to create. Just don’t worry about them or take them seriously, because if you do you are giving them what they want.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Celebrating being down in VA…

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I’m tellin you peeps and eeyores:

Landslide on Tuesday.

The final preference cascade will begin.

We are GONNA TAKE VA

THEN PA
THEN WI

THEN OH
THEN IA

THEN CO

THEN NH

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGHHHHH

blatantblue on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Steve Z on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Math hurts my head, I am so glad you figured this out!!

Scrumpy on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Gumby: “My Brain Hurts!”

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Classic! Lol! ; )

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Here comes the landslide Dick Morris is talking about. Mitt will win VA, MI,CO,NH,Ohio,PA,WI,and Iowa.

BroncosRock on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

If that happens, and President Barack 0bama is “ousted,” then Granny & me are going to burn this motha f**ka down!!!!!

–Michael Moore

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Waiting for the Baghdad Bob of polling data (Gumby) comments…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I’m sure PPP has a very stringent likely voter screen also hahahahahaha.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

lol I doubt Nate Silver will even factor this in.

akaniku on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I am wrung out from all these polls.

Jvette on November 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Here comes the landslide Dick Morris is talking about. Mitt will win VA, MI,CO,NH,Ohio,PA,WI,and Iowa.

BroncosRock on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM
If that happens, and President Barack 0bama is “ousted,” then Granny & me are going to burn this motha f**ka down!!!!!

–Michael Moore

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Granny! Don’t torch the ‘all you can eat’ buffet!
-Michael Moore

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

I’m tellin you peeps and eeyores:

Landslide on Tuesday.

The final preference cascade will begin.

We are GONNA TAKE VA

THEN PA
THEN WI

THEN OH
THEN IA

THEN CO

THEN NH

YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGGGHHHHH

blatantblue on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Gird your loins!!!!

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Shouldn’t you be changing your knee pads, fluffer?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:56 AM

LOL…You are almost as dumb as Gumby…keep trying. You’re getting close!

HumpBot Salvation on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

IMO, Obama is in so much trouble, and given the fact the MSM is pulling him across the line (they realize they have ZERO credibility), you will continue to see the polls skewed up until the very last poll. They have nothing to lose and everything to gain as it keeps Obama up in the RCP. Rass and Gallup will keep their polling as honest as possible. Remember, with liberals it’s all about messaging and the visuals, not facts.

rookwood on November 1, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Ed, by this time the pollsters are usually ‘unskewing’ their data, tryign to predict a final margin as close to actual results as possible so that they can claim how accurate their methods had been all along.

What gives this week? The samples seem to be skewing wildly for Obama as the finish line approaches?

DrW on November 1, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Most of the pollsters are hired by super biased liberal media and thus they do not give a damn about being accurate or reputation… All what they want is money and in order to get the money they have to give the liberal media what the results that they want i.e. favoring Obama even if it means making very inaccurate poll…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 11:10 AM

@kathrynlopez

a veteran political hand just told me romney wins all swing states including MN and MI and PA. name is not dick morris. i’ll take it.

ConservativePartyNow on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Is there any data out there indicating that Democrats in Virginia are about to outperform the 2009 election by almost a third — ten points? Or that independents have either decided to stay home or shift in large numbers to the Democratic Party?

Absolutely no indications whatsoever. In fact, here in Arlington last night somebody decided to take down all the yard signs but Romney’s on the median for almost a mile of a very major street.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Hehehehehe, you so bad!! ;-)

Scrumpy on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Why not just poll all Democrats from now until the election?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:52 AM

This I would like to see. Then we could get an accurate count of those democrats that are voting for Romney.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM

The key here is the independents. They didn’t all just decide to become Democraps in the last 3 years. And they are going for Mitt by a large percentage.

JimK on November 1, 2012 at 11:14 AM

For argument sake, say 10% of democrats stay home or vote for Romney next Tuesday, lets say this is a rolling average of all 50 states, it’s mathematically impossible for Obama to reach 270 or get over 45.2% of the popular vote. This is why Dick Morris is calling this a landslide because 10% is a plausible number this election cycle.

jjnco73 on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

For anyone worried that maybe, just maybe, the pollsters are right and there really is going to be a 2008 or thereabouts Democrat skew to the electorate. The media would be talking right now about an endangered GOP House majority. If there was going to be a D+5 or D+8 there would now be a boat load of House Republicans fighting for their political lives. The GOP House majority is not endangered. It’s not even close.

That’s all you need to know about whether state polls are more accurate than the national ones.

Just get out and vote for Romney, and bring a friend.

jrgdds on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Excellent point…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

If it really is so close in VA, why is it that the rat-eared wonder isn’t scheduled to hold any rallys here between now and November 6th? It’s near the house he lives in and kinda helpful in terms of EVs. My suspicions are that internal polling shows that Romney is going to win the Old Dominion despite the Dems best efforts to whip up racial hatred among blacks toward whites.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I also would like to predict that Romney will win the election now and get it out of the way. That way if I’m right I can and will troll every troll here endlessly on the point of how wrong they were. Or at least until they install the ignore feature I’ve been asking for. *fingers crossed*

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

The GOP House majority is not endangered. It’s not even close.

jrgdds on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

That’s not what Nancy Pelosi says. Of course she just enjoys holding a really big gavel.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

If Obama wins, it’s by the skin of his teeth color.

Red Cloud on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

FIFY

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

For anyone worried that maybe, just maybe, the pollsters are right and there really is going to be a 2008 or thereabouts Democrat skew to the electorate. The media would be talking right now about an endangered GOP House majority. If there was going to be a D+5 or D+8 there would now be a boat load of House Republicans fighting for their political lives. The GOP House majority is not endangered. It’s not even close.

That’s all you need to know about whether state polls are more accurate than the national ones.

Just get out and vote for Romney, and bring a friend.

jrgdds on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

In Nevada the polls are very screwy. Obama seems to be up, yet in all the other races the Dems are in real trouble here. At the state level a very popular state senator is in danger of losing in a race that should be a cakewalk for him.

It is incongruous that the polls show leads for Republicans in the state wide and federal races yet a lead for Obama as president.

I have no idea at this point which way this will go, but I work in a mall with early voting and talk to people who have their stickers on and haven’t found one who voted for Obama.

Anecdotal I know, but it does make me hopeful.

Jvette on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Scrumpy on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Good morning Scrumpy… ;)

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

The key here is the independents. They didn’t all just decide to become Democraps in the last 3 years. And they are going for Mitt by a large percentage.

JimK on November 1, 2012 at 11:14 AM

I’d like to find one person who voted for McCain in 2008 who is voting for Obama this time around. Seriously, has anybody heard of one such person that falls into this catagory?

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

If it really is so close in VA, why is it that the rat-eared wonder isn’t scheduled to hold any rallys here between now and November 6th?

If VA is solidly in Romney’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Folks here love trolls. This is the perfect thread. Yet only two comments. Come on trolls. Stand Up!

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I repeat people: It matters NOT about the polls, be it FOR or AGAIANST Romney.

The ONLY poll that counts is Election Night: Get out and vote….Get Out THE vote.

As I stated before: To minimize the blowback that the Dems will attempt when Romney wins is to widen the margin as much as it is feasible.

That means no stupid whiny ass Gore-style challenges…we need to get Romney at least 55-75% of the vote turnout for him.

Will all these battleground state flip? Maybe, but lets secure the votes of the state we KNOW he can get and the states where the MOE is less than 2%.

Do everything possible & legal: then before Election night, treat yourself and DON’T WATCH THE DAMN OUTCOME. Go to bed; read to your kids; play the new Medal of Honor game…just don’t burn yourselves out too much.

Because win OR lose, We The People that truly “Built This” country will have a serious job ahead of us for the next 4 years.

I’m ready…Let’s Roll.

BlaxPac on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If VA is solidly in Romney’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Spiking the football

faraway on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Conservative Party Now … thanks for your INCREDIBLE breaking news …we may as well call off the rest of the campaign now that a veteran political hand has spoken to Ms. Lopez …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

I live in Loudoun County, Virginia, which has been something of a bellweather county over the last few cycles. This county has supported Jim Webb and Mark Warner, and it was pretty solidly behind Obama in 2008. That said, Bob McDonnell carried this county pretty handily in 2009 and the 2011 local elections brought in a republican sweep for the Board of Supervisors, after having a majority Dem Board previously.

According to my unscientific methodology (scanning for yard signs and bumper stickers), I see a lot more Romney support than Obama support. The trend seems to indicate, at least in this part of Northern Virginia, that Democrats in general have had their time in the sun, and the Republicans are back.

I just don’t see Obama winning this state.

Selkirk on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama (Cook Political Report)
Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman
Posted on November 1, 2012, 9:55:46 AM EDT by TonyInOhio

I’ve been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off ’08 pace

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama ’08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain ’08 (statewide down 9.2%)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in ’08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in ’08)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O…in Kerry ’04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. ’08 (only -1.7% in Bush)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

There he is. ; )

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

PPP = Research2000 from 2010. Kos will threaten to sue them as well.

DanMan on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

4

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I’d like to find one person who voted for McCain in 2008 who is voting for Obama this time around. Seriously, has anybody heard of one such person that falls into this catagory?

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Colin Powell?

Oh, wait…..

UltimateBob on November 1, 2012 at 11:24 AM

The poll that has trolls not believing their own lying eyes. Funny!

Bmore on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

If VA is solidly in Romney’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

‘yo Gumbo, same thing can be said about Obama spending in MI, PA and MN

DanMan on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

If VA NJ is solidly in Romney’s Obama’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Now what say you…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:27 AM

I’d like to find one person who voted for McCain in 2008 who is voting for Obama this time around.
Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Plumkins herself…Megan McCain.

DanMan on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

For anyone worried that maybe, just maybe, the pollsters are right and there really is going to be a 2008 or thereabouts Democrat skew to the electorate. The media would be talking right now about an endangered GOP House majority. If there was going to be a D+5 or D+8 there would now be a boat load of House Republicans fighting for their political lives. The GOP House majority is not endangered. It’s not even close.

That’s all you need to know about whether state polls are more accurate than the national ones.

Just get out and vote for Romney, and bring a friend.

jrgdds on November 1, 2012 at 10:55 AM

If it were to be another Dem wave election, O would not be so close in Michigan while Stabenow is up 15

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I don’t think they care as much about credibility as we’d like to think…they know that whatever results they show, particularly if a Dem is ahead, will be trumpeted by media outlets, and that’s all they’re after.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Hear, hear!

This year especially they do not care about credibility – they see it as watershed election for America’s future.

Anti-Control on November 1, 2012 at 11:32 AM

If VA is solidly in Romney’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Senate campaign

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Little Bammie only getting blacks 86/11? If that holds it’s a huge change. That means the number of blacks voting against little Bammie has roughly tripled.

slickwillie2001 on November 1, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

A minor point- Virginia really doesn’t have an early vote like they do in Oiho where one apparently can early vote starting around the July 4th weekend or something. Virginia has absentee voting and you have to state why you can’t make it to the polling place on November 6th. All you really have to state is that you’ll not be able to make it to the polls during the 12 hours they are open.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:34 AM

I can’t get too excited yet. While Romney will probably take Virginia he may not drag Allen along with him. On Fox & Friends yesterday morning, Larry Sabato (U of VA) saw his Crystal Ball finding that the Dems would probably maintain control in the Senate! Not good news at all, since he’s been a pretty good prognosticator every election cycle.

Bob in VA on November 1, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Like the media, the pollsters now know that they have no more credibility and are just pulling numbers out of their butt showing 0bama leading.

Leftists see what they believe instead of believing what they see. Always have, always will.

jukin3 on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

‘yo Gumbo, same thing can be said about Obama spending in MI, PA and MN

DanMan on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Why does anyone care what that idiot gumbyandpokey says, anyway? He’s just a pathetic, manipulative Pied Piper, and those giving him attention look like lemmings.

Anti-Control on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

If VA is solidly in Romney’s column, why is he wasting a whole day there?

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Oh! I would say that holding a rally at a business in the city where Obama made his “You didn’t build that” speech is worth the time and speaks to a much larger audience than just Virginians.

Likewise showing up in the city that is home to the world’s largest Naval base and reminding the folks that the rat-eared wonder intends to gut the military will reach much further than the state’s borders.

In short, I live in the bluest part of the state and I just don’t see the filthy bastard winning the state this time around.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Comment pages: 1 2