NBC/WSJ/Marist polls show Obama up in Iowa, virtual ties in NH, WI; Update: Hawkeye Poll gives Romney IA edge

posted at 10:01 am on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and the Wall Street Journal, in partnership with a few more final polls from some second-tier swing states that Barack Obama won in 2008 but might lose in 2012.  The Marist polls gives Obama some good news in Iowa, but warnings about New Hampshire and traditionally-safe Wisconsin.  All three polls suggest that momentum remains on Mitt Romney’s side:

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Let’s take these one at a time, straight from the poll data.  In Iowa, the sample D/R/I is 34/31/34, very similar to 2008′s 34/33/33, but off a bit from 2010′s 31/35/34.  There isn’t that much difference between these three models, but there is some, particularly in undersampling Republicans.  However, this poll finds Obama winning independents outside the MOE, 47/39, but far short of his 2008 margin of 56/41.  Independents also have a better opinion of Obama (50/41) than Romney (38/48), although that’s not reflected in job approval (44/45).  If Marist’s poll is accurate, Romney will have a tough time winning Iowa.

The news is better in Wisconsin, and not just from the toplines:

Among likely voters in Wisconsin, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Two percent back another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

The sample in this case is less solid. The D/R/I is 34/29/35; in 2008, turnout was 39/33/29, and I’m pretty sure Republicans aren’t going to underperform that outcome.  In 2010, it was 37/36/28, and in June’s recall election, it was 34/35/31.  I think in this case it’s Obama who’s in trouble, although he has a narrow lead with independents in Wisconsin, 48/44.  Obama won them by 19 in 2008.

Guessing outcomes in New Hampshire is almost always a fool’s errand, but we’ll take a look anyway. Obama’s up 49/47 in a 27/26/47 sample.  In 2008, it was almost identical at 29/27/45, and in 2010 27/30/44.  Independents obviously drive elections in the Granite State more than any other state, and indies give a slight edge to Romney, 47/46. Obama won them by 20 in 2008.

Overall, I’d say that while the toplines look decent for Obama and the samples look arguably solid, those numbers for independents should be a big, big worry.  Obama has lost most of his double-digit edges among indies in all three states, and is in a virtual tie in Wisconsin and New Hampshire with Romney in those demos. With Republican enthusiasm waxing and Democratic enthusiasm waning, these second-tier swing states could break Obama’s hopes of winning a second term.

Update: For what it’s worth, the University of Iowa’s Hawkeye Poll shows a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Romney having an edge of less than a point — but note the levels of support for the incumbent (via Guy Benson):

With the presidential election less than one week away, it’s still a close race in Iowa, a key swing state. Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Barack Obama among likely voters in the state, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today. The Hawkeye Poll is a teaching, research, and service project of the Department of Political Science in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent.

“Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

They show Obama with a slight edge among independents, 41.9/40.2, but both that and the overall level of support are very bad numbers for an incumbent.  If Obama hasn’t gotten above 45% five days before the election, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Election Night more than a point or two.


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U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Put the crack pipe down and back slowly away from it. Nobody will be trying to talk you off the ledge next Wednesday.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

If there is going to be a November surprise tomorrow would be the day for Obama to release it so the media hacks can flood the airwaves with a new Romney smear on the Sunday shows.

Wigglesworth on November 1, 2012 at 11:24 AM

I hope your giving gumby the baseball bat to make it exciting.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Oh, I think he’ll be giving the clay-model Gumby the bat…

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

He is using a D+3 for his national tracking, which still shows Romney up 2% nationally.

Based on Gallup’s extensive release last Friday, the electorate is looking like a R+1 this year.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Hmmm, he’s using the exact breakdown that gumbyandpokey has been predicting and yet gumbyandpokey thinks Romney is going to lose…

Hey gumby, do you think most late deciders are going to go for Obama this election?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

If there is going to be a November surprise tomorrow would be the day for Obama to release it so the media hacks can flood the airwaves with a new Romney smear on the Sunday shows.

Wigglesworth on November 1, 2012 at 11:24 AM

uppereastside was telling us a few months back that Romney’s tax returns would be leaked. Get ready!

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

“Bush was a clear favorite and he won. Obama is a much stronger favorite this year. Simple fact.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM”

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

*cough cough*

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

Romney ain’t no John “reporting for duty” Kerry, Rombo actually has ability.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

So are you are back to GOTV and Early Voting as the bombshell (atomic?) win for Obama, or are you still stuck on the hurricane which isn’t going to affect voting that much in swing states.

It’s all common sense.

Being strongly ahead in early voting in OH, all the battleground state polls being released showing Obama ahead, the good economic/jobs news (with more to come tomorrow), and the RCP national average showing Obama ahead all show Obama has the momentum in the final week. And, yes, the hurricane seems to be the moment that fate intervened on Obama’s behalf. Romney lost his momentum and never got it back and Obama started rising in the national polls. Add in Christie treating Obama like The Messiah, and it’s pretty easy to figure out he’s winning re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

It’s curious (i.e. bs)that Independents favor Romney by double digits everywhere in the country but that in Iowa (and Ohio) Independents favor Obama.

Basilsbest on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I noticed that as well. Hence my earlier post about disreputable pollsters spiking their internals to look “legitimate.”

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Exactly…that is why checking likely voter screens (Similar to what me and Dusty are doing) has to become part of a smart poll watchers do now.

ChrisL on November 1, 2012 at 11:27 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

How much do you get paid to comment here?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:27 AM

He is using a D+3 for his national tracking, which still shows Romney up 2% nationally.

Based on Gallup’s extensive release last Friday, the electorate is looking like a R+1 this year.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

That is a conservative number too, some are predicting a +3/4R this election cycle. Why, because of voter registration and democrat cross-overs. Guys, there are 50K tea party patriots that Volunteered from other states in some of the swing states. That is 50,000 volunteers. Who has a better ground game again?

jjnco73 on November 1, 2012 at 11:27 AM

Come Tuesday, it’s time to goto work and vote. I am so ready.

jake49 on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

He is using a D+3 for his national tracking, which still shows Romney up 2% nationally.

Based on Gallup’s extensive release last Friday, the electorate is looking like a R+1 this year.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Thank you for the info!

I wonder how accurate that will prove. It’s tempting to look at this election in terms of a Romney landslide.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 11:28 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Enlighten us.

Where did you get your Wisconsin +2 info from?

Who was the little-birdie that told you the Newspaper endorsements wouldn’t add to Romney’s leads?

How much to you get paid to comment here?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Hmmm, he’s using the exact breakdown that gumbyandpokey has been predicting and yet gumbyandpokey thinks Romney is going to lose…

Hey gumby, do you think most late deciders are going to go for Obama this election?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Absolutely.

The hurricane bump plus the jobs report tomorrow that looks to be good will all lead to Obama taking those late breaking deciders.

It’s all good news for Obama in this last week, with no good news for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I hope your giving gumby the baseball bat to make it exciting.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Oh, I think he’ll be giving the clay-model Gumby the bat…

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:25 AM

I’m predicting that Gumby get’s a brand new tattoo in the middle of his forehead… an oval with the words Louisville Slugger in the middle of it.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

I am torn, and do not know whether I should believe someone who knows numbers and analysis like John Podhoretz or Josh Jordan, or someone who doesn’t know enough to wash off the sh!t he is covered with, like gumbypoked.

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Evidently, our Moderators, are using Gumby as a method of driving up Thread Numbers.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

and yet you kept saying Barrett was going to win.Seems you defy poll results as much as we do.

LOL

gerrym51 on November 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

It’s all common sense.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH………. You wouldn’t know common sense if it crawled up your ass and died their.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

I’ve had Iowa as a red state on my map for a couple weeks. Wisconsin too.

dczombie on November 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Evidently, our Moderators, are using Gumby as a method of driving up Thread Numbers.

AND it’s working

gerrym51 on November 1, 2012 at 11:31 AM

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Yeah, that’s a tough one.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

New here?*

*Do I really need to add the snark tag?

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:32 AM

It’s all good news for Obama in this last week, with no good news for Mitt.

Mitts good news will be winning the election

gerrym51 on November 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

There is no reasoning with a claymation figure that thinks hurricanes in overwhelming democrat states is taking Obama over the finish line.

It’s desperation at this point. Only the fanatical go that far.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

He is using a D+3 for his national tracking, which still shows Romney up 2% nationally.

Based on Gallup’s extensive release last Friday, the electorate is looking like a R+1 this year.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

The last tracking poll in which Rasmussen released internals on, was using D+4, not D+3. Incidentally, the numbers haven’t shifted since then, so I’m assuming he’s continuing to use D+4.

Basically, Rasmussen is making very conservative estimates for Romney. They’re only generous in comparison to all the pollsters that insist on using 08 turnout models.

WolvenOne on November 1, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Absolutely.

The hurricane bump plus the jobs report tomorrow that looks to be good will all lead to Obama taking those late breaking deciders.

It’s all good news for Obama in this last week, with no good news for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Cool, at least I know where you stand.

You seem to be the ultimate Obama optimist/Romney pessimist around here but you are keeping people on their toes.

Expect to eat a lot of crow if you have been wrong all along though.

Looking forward to the jobs report tomorrow (even though I expect it to be meh for both sides).

Turnout is key this election…..if Obama gets close to 2008 numbers it may be too much for Romney but I personally think a D+3 nationally spells disaster for Obama with all of the indys and crossovers going to Romney.

We will see.

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I am torn, and do not know whether I should believe someone who knows numbers and analysis like John Podhoretz or Josh Jordan, or someone who doesn’t know enough to wash off the sh!t he is covered with, like gumbypoked.

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Josh Jordan, DM Hawkins and Podhoretz are sounding like GOP spinners did in 08 when the polls went south (which they’re doing now). You are being mislead, and I hope they’re held accountable if Romney loses.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Eeyore Alert!

I haven’t felt this pessimistic and depressed about Romney’s chances in weeks, and I never felt that good to begin with.

Mittens had some Big Mo before Sandy, but it’s gone.

Just like after the Tigers swept the Yankees, they started their post-season layoff 4 games early and got shellacked by the sharper team, I have a nagging feeling that team Mittens had their high water mark late last week.

I sense odds of a GOP wave are receding and Axelrod and Co are starting to see daylight…

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

It’s desperation at this point. Only the fanatical go that far.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Maybe that explains the Obama campaign. They really didn’t have to do anything last time. They just walked in. Now they don’t know what is going on, because they never really had to actually run a campaign and woory about what numbers were real. All they had to do before was just show up.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:36 AM

How much do you get paid to comment here?

Where did you get your “internal” Wisconsin numbers from?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

The whole thing about betting is that they do not factor in anything like people’s emotions or how they perceive what is going on around them. Just like an supposed underdog team that is not supposed to win that winds up mopping the floor with them. I have never in my life seen so much intensity on the side of Republicans. This whole country is on the edge of it’s seat and when Romney wins the sigh of relief will make Sandy look like a small whirl wind.

jistincase on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

In regards to sports, upsets can always happen due to lucky breaks, lucky shots, emotion, hustle, bad ref calls, etc. I agree that Republicans are very motivated to vote this year. The Obama hatred is palpable. However, the electoral map tells the story. Unless Romney wins Ohio, he is toast. His last Jeep ad indicates desperation. The ad was designed to mislead and trick voters. The auto bailout has helped Ohio and Obama will reap the benefits. Reasonable people also remember how bad Bush was for 8 years. Republicans have not yet served their penance for supporting Bush for 8 years. 4 more years of Obama is a start. I credit Bush for keeping quiet and giving the Republicans a chance.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Just like after the Tigers swept the Yankees, they started their post-season layoff 4 games early and got shellacked by the sharper team, I have a nagging feeling that team Mittens had their high water mark late last week.

I sense odds of a GOP wave are receding and Axelrod and Co are starting to see daylight…

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Baseball and elections are two totally different things. America didn’t stop living it’s life because a storm came through.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:32 AM

I know: Well, duuuh.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I’ve been watching you being concerned for weeks now. Who are you voting for?

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

On can use these poll scare tactics all you want. I find polls
that oversample democrats to be a joke.

Romney is going to win in a landslide for all the obvious reasons.

Amjean on November 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I am torn, and do not know whether I should believe someone who knows numbers and analysis like John Podhoretz or Josh Jordan, or someone who doesn’t know enough to wash off the sh!t he is covered with, like gumbypoked.

bayview on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

I know what you mean. The little clay boy keeps saying 0 has an “overwhelming lead” in early voting in Ohio, but I don’t think that means what he thinks it means.

Apparently neither does Karl Rove.

in battleground states, the edge in early and absentee vote turnout that propelled Democrats to victory in 2008 has clearly been eroded, cut in half according to a Republican National Committee summary.

But doesn’t it all come down to the all-important Buckeye State? Here, too, the early voting news isn’t encouraging for the president.

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That’s down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

That 257,133-vote swing almost wipes out Mr. Obama’s 2008 Ohio victory margin of 262,224. Since most observers expect Republicans to win Election Day turnout, these early vote numbers point toward a Romney victory in Ohio. They are also evidence that Scott Jennings, my former White House colleague and now Romney Ohio campaign director, was accurate when he told me that the Buckeye GOP effort is larger than the massive Bush 2004 get-out-the-vote operation.

Democrats explain away those numbers by saying that they are turning out new young Ohio voters. But I asked Kelly Nallen, the American Crossroads data maven, about this. She points out that there are 12,612 GOP “millennials” (voters aged 18-29) who’ve voted early compared with 9,501 Democratic millennials. source

Flora Duh on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

How much do you get paid to comment here?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

All they had to do before was just show up.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

For too many Americans that is still all Barky needs to do. Apparently being smashed in the face with an iron fist hasn’t quite made such people think that perhaps the Dog Eating Retard isn’t a good fit for the presidency.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Where did you get your “internal” Wisconsin numbers from?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Isn’t bruno an ABR holdout like idiotdesgn and stoner2?

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Every single betting line out there is accepting at face value polling expecting a 2008 turnout. It simply WILL NOT HAPPEN.

mitchellvii on November 1, 2012 at 11:42 AM

For too many Americans that is still all Barky needs to do. Apparently being smashed in the face with an iron fist hasn’t quite made such people think that perhaps the Dog Eating Retard isn’t a good fit for the presidency.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

The “47-percenters”?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Absolutely.

The hurricane bump plus the jobs report tomorrow that looks to be good will all lead to Obama taking those late breaking deciders.

It’s all good news for Obama in this last week, with no good news for Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Okay, you’re officially a blithering drooling idiot. Incumbents do NOT win late breaking deciders. The only time that happens is when something comes out late that is absolutely prohibitively damaging to the challenger. Even then, it only ends up a 50/50 split between challenger and incumbent.

Turning a race around, in the last WEEK, it almost unprecedented for a very very good reason.

Also, most experts expect the unemployment rate to go UP tomorrow, not down. Additionally, last months job report did a big fat nothing for Obama, and you’re unlikely to see anything like that again. Long story short, if the economy has been floundering for years under your watch, one or two positive job reports at the very end of your term isn’t going to change the perception that you’re bad for jobs. We’ve ran into this exact scenario during Presidential elections a couple of times already, it just doesn’t make any difference.

Now seriously, cut out the trolling. We all know what you’re up to, and its an old tired gag at this point.

WolvenOne on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Del Dolemonte ,you once again have shown how flat out stupid and classless you are …first of all Bob Denver of Dobey Gillis and Gilligan fame is a great American icon so I take your nickname as a huge compliment thanks…and if the game is to use cute clever (?)word games I guess it would be said obviously your brain is made of a can of Del Monte peaches and about as smart

also you expose your lightweight political thinking peachbrain by your Christie observation… He has been considered along with Rubio and Ryan as rising stars in the GOP Ann Coulter wanted him to run for President …the Repubs picked him to headline their convention… a 50% ( if that is a consistent polling truth )awareness of politician by the American public is actually high.I guarantee you if the Jersey cleanup goes well his profile will continue to grow …Facebook is already exploding with Christie for President( I use to live in Jersey though now I live in Colorado and Ohio) Ryush wouldn’t have had sush a stroke if Christie didn’t matter … so you aren’t thinking well but that’s right you have Del Monte canned peaches for a brain ha ha

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Ed Schultz’s show?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Republicans have not yet served their penance for supporting Bush for 8 years. 4 more years of Obama is a start. I credit Bush for keeping quiet and giving the Republicans a chance.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I thank God that Dubya was in that office when those Barbarians killed 3,000 or us on 9/11/01.

Yes, he spent way too much, but , he loves this country, and is still qujietly doing things for our Armed Forces.

Obama is our first, and hopefully last, anti-American President. Misllionos of people are out of work, and you call that “penance”?

Do something anatomically impossible and disappear.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM

I haven’t felt this pessimistic and depressed about Romney’s chances in weeks, and I never felt that good to begin with.

Mittens had some Big Mo before Sandy, but it’s gone.

The most realistic post of the day on here.

You can feel how the momentum has turned. And you can partly thank Chris Christie for that.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:44 AM

Ed Schultz’s show?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

No, a radio talk show host in WI.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:42 AM

Evidently, Bruno and reality have taken divergent paths.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Where did you get your “internal” Wisconsin numbers from?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

He pulls them out of his ass…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Gumby = Ed/AP/MKH/EJ

It’s the only thing that makes sense. Why else hasn’t it been banned.

They are purposely doing this to generate traffic and to encourage debate.

It sure as heck is feasable as anything else I can think of. Gumby consistantly violates the terms of use by his actions and has done so for months. Repeated call for the ban hammer by numerous long time posters have fallen on deaf ears.

Does anything else make a like of sense?

Anybody care to take a poke at this?

Let me add that I hope I’m wrong.

D-fusit on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

absolutely agree with this!

it has to be one of the moderators either posting as Gumby or Gumby is an agent of them. no other reason such a troll would be allowed to spew its waste of bandwidth. although it is an awful thing for the mods to do- it lessens the enjoyment of the site by all of us. so many of us complain about it and nothing happens. and if they wanted the mods could allow for an “ignore” function so we don’t have to waste our time going through useless posts by the axelturf..

worst part of the site- and makes me very negative towards HotAir that they continue to allow the astroturfing here..

AirForceCane on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

He pulls them out of his ass…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

That would be a truly internal number…

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Wow. The Trolls ae really showing their desperation today. Axlerod must have promised them more money for these last few days.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Ummm.. If the Rs don’t win this year, they ain’t winning in 2016… Are farm team sucks. It’s basically Rubio who is the Latino version of Obama, Jindal who cannot actually give a speech to save his life, Ryan who will be branded a loser, and Christie… who I hope no one supports after the stupid stunt he pulled. And then of course Jeb Bush.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

He pulls them out of his ass…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

I guess you could say it’s an “Internal Number 2″?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Evidently, Bruno and reality have taken divergent paths.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:45 AM

Tell me something I don’t already know, KJ…

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

Change that to 0bamaphone minutes and will agree.

The 0bama campaign is short of cash and minutes can be funneled through government programs.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Another hot air thread about Gumby. Can we just get the guy his own column here?

happytobehere on November 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I meant our not are… I’m in a foul mood today.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Just a note Ed:

I don’t trust Marist they can read and hear and they are hearing Republicans dismiss polls with D+7-9. The WHOLE point of these polls from Marist is not to inform the public. That is not happening. It is to convince people Obama is winning. I think they have gone past just using D+7 to get the numbers and are actually just reporting a weight they are NOT using. If you REALLY think Rasmussen who can be trusted is that far off then I guess that is your choice but I knew we will get NOOOOOOO! Good news that Romney is taking states in the Obama firewall from people like MARIST!!!

Conan on November 1, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Another hot air thread about Gumby. Can we just get the guy his own column here?

happytobehere on November 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I agree. In a way, he is good to have around. He is kind of a perfect reverse barometer.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Thank you for the Loser’s Lament.

Election day is going to be hilarious.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Finally, something we can agree on. Somebody save this for after the election!

dominigan on November 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Why don’t you understand that Americans’ first priority is getting the socialist Alinskite out of office?

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Tell me something I don’t already know, KJ…

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:47 AM

Ummm, Obama loves you and want’s you to prosper in business????

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

If Ras thinks turnout will be R+1, why is he using a D+3-5 sample?

Lord of the Wings on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Trolls are out in force today…….I smell desperation in the air.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

I’ve been watching you being concerned for weeks now. Who are you voting for?

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I was gonna vote for Gary Johnson (I live in Minny) but after the first Debate I decided to cast a positive (though losing, at least here) for Mitt.

He has won me over in the past month.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Another hot air thread about Gumby. Can we just get the guy his own column here?

happytobehere on November 1, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Or hook him up to a generator to help with Sandy relief? I’ve never seen someone spin this hard for so long! Talk about desperation setting in!

dominigan on November 1, 2012 at 11:52 AM

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Cool. Now, it’s time to accentuate the positive…elminate the negative…and don’t latch on to Mr. In-between. :)

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

If Ras thinks turnout will be R+1, why is he using a D+3-5 sample?

Lord of the Wings on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

The Justice Department thinks it would be racist.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Mittens had some Big Mo before Sandy, but it’s gone.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Let me tell you what I see, one step removed from this election as I live in Canada.

Romney never had big momentum. It has always been slow and steady. No one on this board has ever thought “Well, Obama is 100% toast now”. There was a surge after the debates but it was a quiet one.

Nothing has changed in the last few days. There is no hurricane bump of votes, that is a complete fabrication by the trolls and fear-mongers on this board and others. The msm that is in the tank for Obama cannot get more in the tank. Their praise means nothing to voters because it is just more of the same.

If anything, it will have a rebound effect because it underscores just how incompetent Obama has been up to this point.

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Trolls are out in force today…….I smell desperation in the air.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

OFA money drying up. Pretty soon their moms will be nagging them again about putting in applications for work at the local drive-thru.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Ummm, Obama loves you and want’s you to prosper in business????

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:50 AM

I think that was in the fortune cookie my dog ate and later threw up.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

So, RuPoll, will you admit that, if Democrats do not turn out in greater numbers and Republicans do not turn out in lower numbers than they did in 2008, the odds are extraordinarily great that the polls are incorrect?

Will you also admit that the polling companies do no one any favours when they use sampling models that are highly unlikely to come to fruition?

Do you think that Democrats will vote in greater numbers than they did in 2008?

Do you think that Republicans will vote in lower numbers than they did in 2008?

Would you agree that pollsters are, by and large, ignoring the midterm predictive model as its applies to turnout?

Why won’t you answer the questions?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Bwahahahahaha, Ed Schultz got the DNC talking points and shared them with everyone in the room. Bwahahahahaha.

IowaWoman on November 1, 2012 at 11:57 AM

Republicans have not yet served their penance for supporting Bush for 8 years. 4 more years of Obama is a start. I credit Bush for keeping quiet and giving the Republicans a chance.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

you sir are the most dispicable of the trolls here after THAT statement. so since your personal hatred of bush is so deep the repubs and the rest of the country must suffer the fate of losing our nation to the socialist agenda , losing all of our constitutionally protected freedoms as penance? first of all you are NOT God , nor are you a priest therefore YOU HAVE NO RIGHT to assess a penance on ANYONE. you are however the most despicable anti american thugocrat i have ever had the mispleasure of running across which says alot considering the company you keep (i.e. Gumby et al).go away better yet go to hades in a gilded cage with purple cushions!

katee bayer on November 1, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Thank you for the Loser’s Lament.

Election day is going to be hilarious.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Gumbo, if Obama wins, how will that be “hilarious”?

If your life sucks now (unemployed or job not as good as it could be, house underwater, people like me on a capital strike, more and more government, a POTUS who has only pledged to extend the Bush tax cuts for the middle class for 1 year, etc), how do you think it will get better with an unfettered Obama, especially one that will likely be proven to have abandoned Americans to die in Benghazi?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:00 PM

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 11:55 AM

I disagree with you in this respect.

While Romney’s rising support was slow and steady that first debate was critical. It became okay to express support for Romney over the rat-eared wonder. I think the support was already there (no sane person wants another four years of this idiot) but there had to be a way to verbalize the idea that Obama should be a one-termer. The debate did that.

Of course, I think where much of the forward momentum Romney enjoyed came from the GOP convention and Clint Eastwood openly mocking Obama. That one speech broke down a lot of barriers to defeating the rat-eared wonder.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 11:46 AM

You could not be more wrong.

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 12:02 PM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Because people waiting in gas lines and have a flooded house will blame Mitt Romney? LOL

Wagthatdog on November 1, 2012 at 12:03 PM

It’s all common sense.

Being strongly ahead in early voting in OH, all the battleground state polls being released showing Obama ahead

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Ever hear of cash for clunkers and how much of a dud that was? Did you ever read about what actually happened with that program? It’s called “pull forward demand”. In other words, with cash for clunkers, demand for vehicles was pulled forward with only the people who already planned on getting new vehicles, ended up participating… but early. Thus, demand for new vehicles was artificially pulled forward. Demand for new vehicles fell off a cliff after the program ended… with no net increase in new vehicles actually sold.

I live in Ohio… I can guarantee that’s what’s happening with the Democratic early vote. It’s not that they are getting new voters, or that there’s more enthusiasm… it’s because they’re cannibalizing their voting day people by getting them to vote early in order to skew the perception. They’re trying to halt Romney’s momentum in convincing uncommitted voters by getting them to lock in their vote before they can consider the alternative. But it’s already too late. The only people participating are those that were already a lock for Obama.

In other words… their push for early voting is actually a sign of desperation.

dominigan on November 1, 2012 at 12:03 PM

OFA money drying up. Pretty soon their moms will be nagging them again about putting in applications for work at the local drive-thru.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

They’ll have to compete with many degree holders for those jobs, and probably need to be bi-lingual.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Yes, I see your point. I agree.

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Del Dolemonte ,you once again have shown how flat out stupid and classless you are …first of all Bob Denver of Dobey Gillis and Gilligan fame is a great American icon so I take your nickname as a huge compliment thanks…and if the game is to use cute clever (?)word games I guess it would be said obviously your brain is made of a can of Del Monte peaches and about as smart

also you expose your lightweight political thinking peachbrain by your Christie observation… He has been considered along with Rubio and Ryan as rising stars in the GOP Ann Coulter wanted him to run for President …the Repubs picked him to headline their convention… a 50% ( if that is a consistent polling truth )awareness of politician by the American public is actually high.I guarantee you if the Jersey cleanup goes well his profile will continue to grow …Facebook is already exploding with Christie for President( I use to live in Jersey though now I live in Colorado and Ohio) Ryush wouldn’t have had sush a stroke if Christie didn’t matter … so you aren’t thinking well but that’s right you have Del Monte canned peaches for a brain ha ha

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

You know….part of me almost feels sorry for the boy.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM

‏@NumbersMuncher
Rasmussen has Romney up 1 in Iowa, 49-48. Was tied @ 48% last week.

midgeorgian on November 1, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Rasmussen has Romney up 1 in Iowa 49/48. Tied last week. Per NumbersMuncher tweet.

So what was that about Romney losing momentum again?

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 12:11 PM

OFA money drying up. Pretty soon their moms will be nagging them again about putting in applications for work at the local drive-thru.

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:56 AM

Let me help them with the practice lines

“Would you like fries with that order?”

“Paper or plastic”

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Del Dolemonte ,you once again have shown how flat out stupid and classless you are …first of all Bob Denver of Dobey Gillis and Gilligan fame is a great American icon, blah, blah, blah

sonny bono on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Well Articulated, Skippy! Saul Alinsky taught you well.

You do know where I got that -2 grade I gave you, don’t you? That was the grade Maynard G. Krebs got in his final exam in history.

As for Chris Christie, a slight correction: the most recent “polls” about him came out in late August.

USA Today/Gallup: 34% Favorable, 26% Unfavorable, 25% Never Heard Of, 14% No Opinion

CNN/ORC: 37% Favorable, 21% Unfavorable, 27% Never Heard Of, 15% No Opinion

Citing Facts isn’t “stupid” or “clueless”, unless one lives on your Democrat Planet of Uranus.

BTW, I find it hilarious that Politico has been reduced to Lying about the response to the hurricane. To wit:

http://www.politicolnews.com/obama-scores-big-time-in-polls-for-handling-hurricane-sandy-response/

Obama Scores Big Time in Polls for Handling Hurricane Sandy Response

Yet when one actually reads the Politico story, they cite one, and only one, “poll”. That’s because only one outfit seems to be “polling” on this issue, and that outfit includes a newspaper that endorsed O’bamna.

How come Politico is lying about the number of “polls” that have been done about O’bamna’s handling of the hurricane?

And why haven’t we seen any more such “poll” results yet?

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

It’s all common sense.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Something that you have demonstrated to lack since you believe that Democrats will turnout in greater numbers than they did in 2008 and Republicans will turn out in lower numbers than they did in 2010. That’s what most of the pollsters are doing. How else can you explain the samples that have more Democrats than in 2008, which was both a wave and historic election?

It’s like you people think the past 4 years haven’t happened. You have erased the Tea Party, the historic 2010 midterms, the dismal economy, etc. You still seem to believe that Obama is causing SRO crowds in 100,000 seat stadiums to swoon.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

It’s all common sense.

Being strongly ahead in early voting in OH, all the battleground state polls being released showing Obama ahead, the good economic/jobs news (with more to come tomorrow), and the RCP national average showing Obama ahead all show Obama has the momentum in the final week. And, yes, the hurricane seems to be the moment that fate intervened on Obama’s behalf. Romney lost his momentum and never got it back and Obama started rising in the national polls. Add in Christie treating Obama like The Messiah, and it’s pretty easy to figure out he’s winning re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Common sense, coming from you. Yeah, that’s rich.

I was going to address your other points, but frankly what is the point. Earlier in the thread you said Obama was going to win because his GOTV was so superior to Romney’s. You’ve been saying this for weeks. Gallup and Pew blew that theory right out of the water. But here you, ignoring the results because they don’t fit your narrative. So, answer the question. You were wrong about the GOTV and early voting weren’t you?

Answer, we are all waiting.

Your ridiculous over reaction to any current event (besides Benghazi) only illustrates what a petulant small minded person you really are.

The fact that you give Gov. Christi kissing the ass of the President for more federal dollars more credence than the Benghazi cover up only further illustrates how narrow minded and pathetic you really are.

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 12:14 PM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

You know….part of me almost feels sorry for the boy.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 12:07 PM

I don’t. I just laugh at him.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:15 PM

One quick look down the RCP national poll averages is quite stunning: we have an incumbent president that has not hit 50% yet in a SINGLE poll, 5 days from election day.

Do those numbers look like it’s a president who is about to be re-elected?

yet most pundits say an Obama victory is inevitable and he is above 67% on inTrade.

Has the world gone mad?

tkyang99 on November 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Henninger has this piece in WSj about the Evangelical vote in the swing wtates, esecially OH.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:19 PM

The race is not tight in NH. The polls oversample dems. I know people who made calls for Obama in 2008 that are voting for Romney this time and who have said how angry they are at Obama. Moreover, they are telling others.

We have the socialist twins Che Porter and Hassan filling the airwaves with their propaganda non stop and everyone in NH remembers very well exactly why we booted them out of office.

THE WORLD HAS MOVED ON – AND AWAY FROM THE SOCIALISTS.

It’s like you people think the past 4 years haven’t happened. You have erased the Tea Party, the historic 2010 midterms, the dismal economy, etc. You still seem to believe that Obama is causing SRO crowds in 100,000 seat stadiums to swoon.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Yes, they claim every crushing defeat is an aberration, despite the repeated beatings. Now the electorate gets to take out their anger on the source of their misery and frustration.

Zero is all done.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 12:22 PM

In regards to sports, upsets can always happen due to lucky breaks, lucky shots, emotion, hustle, bad ref calls, etc. I agree that Republicans are very motivated to vote this year. The Obama hatred is palpable. However, the electoral map tells the story. Unless Romney wins Ohio, he is toast. His last Jeep ad indicates desperation. The ad was designed to mislead and trick voters. The auto bailout has helped Ohio and Obama will reap the benefits. Reasonable people also remember how bad Bush was for 8 years. Republicans have not yet served their penance for supporting Bush for 8 years. 4 more years of Obama is a start. I credit Bush for keeping quiet and giving the Republicans a chance.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Please show me where the Jeep add was incorrect.

Mark

mailmars on November 1, 2012 at 12:24 PM

Please show me where the Jeep add was incorrect.

Mark

mailmars on November 1, 2012 at 12:24 PM

The Jeep ad is factually correct.

dogsoldier on November 1, 2012 at 12:26 PM

@justkarl
.@NumbersMuncher re Marist IA @ O+6: Internal poll from O’s Super PAC had it +1 https://twitter.com/SarahH_CBSNJ/status/263929284060647424 … Suggest that Marist OH poll also off?

NBC/Marist is 5% to the left of Obama’s own leaked internal polls.

midgeorgian on November 1, 2012 at 12:26 PM

One quick look down the RCP national poll averages is quite stunning: we have an incumbent president that has not hit 50% yet in a SINGLE poll, 5 days from election day.

Do those numbers look like it’s a president who is about to be re-elected?

yet most pundits say an Obama victory is inevitable and he is above 67% on inTrade.

Has the world gone mad?

tkyang99 on November 1, 2012 at 12:18 PM

Add to that, do we have an incumbent that is campaigning like he is winning?

His “first time” video, kids video, Romnesia, anything Joe Biden says, etc. etc. The LSM is already couching their narrative, and looking for scapegoats all point to a campaign on the ropes.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 12:28 PM

Looks like Romney might br carried to vidtory by the Evangelicals who stood on the Fence in 2008. In many polls – NBC, Pew and ABC—the percentage of evangelicals claiming to support Mr. Romney has been in the mid-70ss
They estimate that in 2008 there were 350,000 evangelicals who didn’t vote in Ohio. Obama carried the state by 260,000. If that support of 70% or more holds for Romney in Ohio, and if the share of the evangelical vote increases by a point or two, then he carries OH.

Gumbey’s hardest hit :)

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:29 PM

is already exploding with Christie for President( I use to live in Jersey though now I live in Colorado and Ohio) Ryush wouldn’t have had sush a stroke if Christie didn’t matter … so you aren’t thinking well but that’s right you have Del Monte canned peaches for a brain ha ha

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Well, that’s one thing you don’y have to worry about, brain that is…. yours is non-existent, your lobotomy is showing in your comments, btw :).:

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:32 PM

Limbaugh just made a hilarious point-if this Hurricane is the “game-changer” for O’bamna that the Left claims it to be, isn’t that an admission on their part that they were Lying when they said Romney was Toast before the hurricane?

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

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