NBC/WSJ/Marist polls show Obama up in Iowa, virtual ties in NH, WI; Update: Hawkeye Poll gives Romney IA edge

posted at 10:01 am on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and the Wall Street Journal, in partnership with a few more final polls from some second-tier swing states that Barack Obama won in 2008 but might lose in 2012.  The Marist polls gives Obama some good news in Iowa, but warnings about New Hampshire and traditionally-safe Wisconsin.  All three polls suggest that momentum remains on Mitt Romney’s side:

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Let’s take these one at a time, straight from the poll data.  In Iowa, the sample D/R/I is 34/31/34, very similar to 2008′s 34/33/33, but off a bit from 2010′s 31/35/34.  There isn’t that much difference between these three models, but there is some, particularly in undersampling Republicans.  However, this poll finds Obama winning independents outside the MOE, 47/39, but far short of his 2008 margin of 56/41.  Independents also have a better opinion of Obama (50/41) than Romney (38/48), although that’s not reflected in job approval (44/45).  If Marist’s poll is accurate, Romney will have a tough time winning Iowa.

The news is better in Wisconsin, and not just from the toplines:

Among likely voters in Wisconsin, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Two percent back another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

The sample in this case is less solid. The D/R/I is 34/29/35; in 2008, turnout was 39/33/29, and I’m pretty sure Republicans aren’t going to underperform that outcome.  In 2010, it was 37/36/28, and in June’s recall election, it was 34/35/31.  I think in this case it’s Obama who’s in trouble, although he has a narrow lead with independents in Wisconsin, 48/44.  Obama won them by 19 in 2008.

Guessing outcomes in New Hampshire is almost always a fool’s errand, but we’ll take a look anyway. Obama’s up 49/47 in a 27/26/47 sample.  In 2008, it was almost identical at 29/27/45, and in 2010 27/30/44.  Independents obviously drive elections in the Granite State more than any other state, and indies give a slight edge to Romney, 47/46. Obama won them by 20 in 2008.

Overall, I’d say that while the toplines look decent for Obama and the samples look arguably solid, those numbers for independents should be a big, big worry.  Obama has lost most of his double-digit edges among indies in all three states, and is in a virtual tie in Wisconsin and New Hampshire with Romney in those demos. With Republican enthusiasm waxing and Democratic enthusiasm waning, these second-tier swing states could break Obama’s hopes of winning a second term.

Update: For what it’s worth, the University of Iowa’s Hawkeye Poll shows a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Romney having an edge of less than a point — but note the levels of support for the incumbent (via Guy Benson):

With the presidential election less than one week away, it’s still a close race in Iowa, a key swing state. Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Barack Obama among likely voters in the state, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today. The Hawkeye Poll is a teaching, research, and service project of the Department of Political Science in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent.

“Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

They show Obama with a slight edge among independents, 41.9/40.2, but both that and the overall level of support are very bad numbers for an incumbent.  If Obama hasn’t gotten above 45% five days before the election, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Election Night more than a point or two.


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ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Sports betting? Ha.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

If Romney wins Wisconsin, Iowa becomes meaningless. Truth.

Red Cloud on November 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

That depends on who wins Ohio. If Romney wins FL, NC, VA, and OH, he’s at 266 EVs and needs one other state (no matter how small) to get over 270. Wisconsin (10 EV) would do, but so would CO(9), IA(6), or NH(4).

If Romney wins FL, NC, VA but loses OH, he’s at 248 EVs and needs 22 more. He would need to win Wisconsin and Colorado AND either Iowa or New Hampshire to win the Presidency.

Unless he manages to pull off an upset in Michigan or Pennsylvania, which even Scott Rasmussen called Republican fantasies.

Steve Z on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Albeit I don’t trust any poll it ain’t over till its over.

Speakup on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

McCain partisans said the same thing in 08. Those are the words of a supporter of the losing candidate.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Ooh…I like this. I’m going to do the same thing if you don’t mind. Maybe an H. Upmann Maduro Churchill. Or an Arturo Fuentes Dominican Maduro. Scotch or a Brandy with that?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Sports betting? Ha.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Its zippy’s thing. And he calls that research.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM

I suspect the shadier polling outfits are catching on that the enthusiam base and the independant vote on their internals are nailing them. Now they have to come up with BS to cover their top line. It’s going to be tougher to nail them. They were lazy before – not so much now.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Their likely voter screens are screwy. When they show over 90% of RV in any given state as a likely voter, that’s a RV poll…those always tilt more to the Dems.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:41 AM

This isn’t 2008.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

.

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

.
You keep saying that and there’s no evidence to back it up. Obama is not going to lose 10% of his White Voters in IA.

Romney isn’t going to win just because you want him to. I’m sorry to break it to you.

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey
on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

.

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

.
See you next Wednesday morning, ‘pokey.

listens2glenn on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

i have a question just how did you decide on user name

gerrym51 on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

John Podhoretz is tweeting that the Marist Iowa poll is a disaster.
1. Poll claims 45% of respondents have voted early, reality is 32%
2. Poll claims 62D/35R response for turned in ballots, reality is 42D/32R,

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Actually the number is 36.1% have voted so far

43.3% democrat
32.2% Republican
24.4% None/Other

You can find all the information on early voting for every state here.

Capitalist Infidel on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Outside of Colorado, Obama is winning early voting. Maybe not by as much as in 2008, but he’s racking up huge margins still.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

So, the margins have narrowed, Obama is going to lose the election on Election Day (as every Democrat does, every year), Republican enthusiasm is up, and you still are babbling about RCP averages that are skewed based on pollsters as idiotic as you, and you still dont think you are an idiot that is talking about something you know nothing about? Seriously?

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

Film of the event?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Wisconsin, where they just held a recall election for Gov. Scott Walker. The polls all said, it was going to be a CLOSE race. TIED was all that the pollsters kept repeating.

That is complete and utter BS. Walker always had a solid lead…

Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

The freak of nature Gumby probably gets paid for every post he makes and every response he gets. Think about that.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Outdated. Called that one myself last Friday. 1) Not happening. Obama off 200,000 in early voting. More than shift in D- to R+ registrations. Probably impact from Indies, and 2) I see Obama, at best, winning 3 of the 5 states you posted.

I don’t do gambling sites – not something a real conservative does anyways.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Gumby, would you be pulling this crap if Santorum was the nominee?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:45 AM

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

If a tree falls in a forest and no one is there does it make a sound? That should be how you treat gumbeyandpokey (GAP). He has longer neuro-synaptic gaps and can’t engage when the fingers type.

chemman on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

IBD/TIPP has broken strongly for Romney even with it’s D+7 advantage.
National Journal has an even more ridiculous turnout model in place.

You said before that you thought there was going to be a D+3 national turnout.

You are are aware that you are predicting a Romney win right?

If it’s D+3, Romney is going to win if you look at the national polls. Rasmussen tracker has been polling at D+4 and still has Romney up 2 points. The Wapo Tracker moved from D+4 to D+7 to show the race tied again. Romney is actually winning the early vote accord to Gallup and Pew. Marist/Quinn are ridiculously oversampling Democrats and early vote numbers to prop up state polls…..and Republicans should be worried?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I thought Rasmussen was using a D+2 weighing on their latest polls. I’m guessing it’s going to be a D+1 or even a D+0 this year myself (thanks to my own formidable powers of prediction). I may have heard wrong, maybe that was just for a particular state.

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM
Ed refuses to ban him. It’s crazy.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Some places on the internet have this great thing called an “ignore feature” which allows you to place certain commenters on ignore. I think after the workload comes down after the election (and the re-run of Coleman VS. Franken times every battleground state that President Obama loses) they might have the time and inclination to install one. It’s very convenient.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

The only thing O’bamna did yesterday was campaign in a state he’s already winning by 12 points.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

If Obama is reduced to campaigning in a State that he is supposedly winning by 12 point’s, that tells you that the democrat internal polls don’t have him winning by 12 points, the internals must have him pretty close to tied.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I have no idea who will win for sure .. but I do know one thing if 85% of battleground polls were going for Romney, like they are doing right , …another great day yesterday with the GOP convention keynote speaker Christie going out of his way on national tv singing effusive praises of President Obama …at least he is being intellectually honest …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Their likely voter screens are screwy. When they show over 90% of RV in any given state as a likely voter, that’s a RV poll…those always tilt more to the Dems.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Extreme turnout is usually something like 60%? 2008 was 58%….

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

So, the margins have narrowed, Obama is going to lose the election on Election Day (as every Democrat does, every year),

Sure, the election will be closer than 08. Obama will not win NC, IN or MO. But that’s about it. When Republicans let the Dems get such gigantic leads in early voting, it’s hard to make up the difference.

The only state that Romney seemed to make a legit GOTV/early voting effort in was CO.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

That is complete and utter BS. Walker always had a solid lead…

Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

I’ll bite. Why did you say Walker was going to lose?

Nick_Angel on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Well Gumby? If Santorum was the nominee, would you be pulling this crap?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

That is complete and utter BS. Walker always had a solid lead…

Poll Date Sample Walker (R) Barrett (D) Spread
Final Results – – 53.1 46.3 Walker +6.8
RCP Average 5/17 – 6/3 – 51.5 44.8 Walker +6.7
WeAskAmerica 6/3 – 6/3 1570 LV 54 42 Walker +12
PPP (D) 6/2 – 6/3 1226 LV 50 47 Walker +3
Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7
WPR/St. Norbert 5/17 – 5/22 406 LV 50 45 Walker +5

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:44 AM

And yet, you insisted he was being beaten like a rented mule and his loss would be epic…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

If Obama is reduced to campaigning in a State that he is supposedly winning by 12 point’s, that tells you that the democrat internal polls don’t have him winning by 12 points, the internals must have him pretty close to tied.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I’ve been told that the internals in WI show Obama +2. He’s going to win by a Kerry/Bush type margin.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

lost a sentence in last post … should read if Romney was leading in 85% of the current battleground polls like President Obama is you Hot Airers would be trumpeting them, but since you are not capable of being intellectually honest you won’t admit it

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yeah right. You haven’t been shown crap.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’ve done my own poll….Romney gets +350 Electoral Votes on Election Day

Conservative4Ever on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

If Obama is reduced to campaigning in a State that he is supposedly winning by 12 point’s, that tells you that the democrat internal polls don’t have him winning by 12 points, the internals must have him pretty close to tied.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Obama and his campaign are busy peeing on their inner firewall to put out the flames since their other firewall has already crumbled.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I’ve been told that the internals in WI show Obama +2. He’s going to win by a Kerry/Bush type margin.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

You also insisted Scott Walker was being beaten like a rented mule and his loss would be epic…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I’ve been told that the internals in WI show Obama +2. He’s going to win by a Kerry/Bush type margin.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Internal Obama Campaign email?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I’ve been told that the internals in WI show Obama +2. He’s going to win by a Kerry/Bush type margin.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

The voices in your head don’t count.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Regarding early voting in Ohio it all predicts toward a huge Obama lose of the state. From this site (link below) that tracks Ohio absentee ballots requests, the democrats are down in 2012 the absentee ballot requests by 118,448 compared to 2008 where as the Republicans in 2012 are up 14,114 compared to 2008… So just in the absentee ballots alone Obama has lost in 2012 132,562 votes compared to 2008 and that is assuming that all the democrats with absentee ballots are going to vote for him.

Obama won Ohio in 2008 by 260,000 vote so when he is losing 132,562 votes in the absentee ballots alone then there is no way he is going to win Ohio…

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Gumby’s “Me too!” buddy is here to play.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

OT, I think.

Gumby = Ed/AP/MKH/EJ

It’s the only thing that makes sense. Why else hasn’t it been banned.

They are purposely doing this to generate traffic and to encourage debate.

It sure as heck is feasable as anything else I can think of. Gumby consistantly violates the terms of use by his actions and has done so for months. Repeated call for the ban hammer by numerous long time posters have fallen on deaf ears.

Does anything else make a like of sense?

Anybody care to take a poke at this?

Let me add that I hope I’m wrong.

D-fusit on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Predictive Markets Update:

I apologize…I hit post before the update was complete.

Newsflash: Major Odds change!

Obama increases to a 3.0:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Thur 3:0:1

This is a somewhat surprising change in the odds. The probability of an Obama victory has increased in every swing state. Florida is the only swing state that Romney is a favorite. North Carolina is off the board so I assume Romney is a “lock” in that state.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

http://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/political-props.jsp

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Another one?

Well, I guess the enemy wouldn’t be here if they weren’t scared to death.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Well Gumby? If Santorum was the nominee, would you be pulling this crap?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:49 AM

Depends on if he was winning or losing.

This really isn’t all Romney’s fault, though. The hurricane really did change the dynamic of the race, and took away any momentum Mitt had and put the wind back behind Obama. But I think the improving economy/jobs situation/falling gas prices are also factors in Obama’s improved standing in re-taking the lead.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Guess what?! Intrade had Kerry winning in 2004! It also had Obamacare being declared unconstitutional! What happened there?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Yeah right. You haven’t been shown crap.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 AM

The Poll he has been smoking is talking to him now…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Didn’t you also say that the other debates would halt his momentum?

Didn’t you also say that the Sept jobs report would halt his momentum?

The fact that you’d do this even if Santorum was the nominee, someone who you claimed to have voted for in the primaries, speaks volumes.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I don’t see Obama taking CO, OH, IA at this point. I STILL don’t have enough data on PA (and won’t until election night, due to the lack of early voting there), but I think Obama will have PA.

The last IA poll was complete junk. I’m sticking with RAS and Gallop on IA.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Sure, the election will be closer than 08. Obama will not win NC, IN or MO. But that’s about it. When Republicans let the Dems get such gigantic leads in early voting, it’s hard to make up the difference.

The only state that Romney seemed to make a legit GOTV/early voting effort in was CO.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

You do realize that no Democrat has won re-election with a lower percentage in the last 100 years, right? You do realize that no president has won with unemployment over 7.2%, right? These are facts. Yet, Obama will overcome all with lower enthusiasm, lower early voting numbers, and under 50% everywhere, with bogus polls. Yeah, okay.

Obama has already lost Florida and Virginia. And if you give Axelrod truth serum, he will admit that. Colorado is basically gone as well.

And with everything else, lets be quite clear. If PPP and the other garbage pollsters are right, and Obama increases his vote share, Obama will win. If the turn-out is D+3, or less (likely), Romney is going to win. And neither you, the idiotic Nate Silver, anyone who works for PPP, or any of these other abysmal polling places, can give an honest answer of why Democrats will have a D+7, or higher, turnout on election day, as most of these polls state. And the reason is simple, because that is liberal fantasy that is meant to depress conservative turnout.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

NO, it didn’t. Out here in the Heartland, we’re still getting rid of that Manchurian President.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 10:54 AM

SHTFplan.com…

…as FEMA has advised in its emergency preparedness guidelines, despite millions of dollars in supplies having been purchased by the Federal government, if emergency responders and the transportation infrastructure is overwhelmed, help may not be coming for days or weeks.

While damage from Hurricane Sandy may not be as widespread or severe as earlier reports suggested it could be, what should be crystal clear is that any serious long-term emergency would be horrific for the non-prepper.

In New Jersey some 20,000 residents are affected and already there are not enough supplies to go around and sanity is rapidly destabilizing.

The government simply does not have the manpower to deal with an emergency requiring the delivery of food and water to hundreds of thousands of people. The saving grace for the east coast is that the damage was not as bad as it could have been, and residents were made aware of the coming storm days in advance, giving them ample time to stock up or evacuate.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

heh. That reminds me of a tweet I saw earlier. A reporter asked a man coming out of a polling place how long he had been waiting to vote. The man replied, “four years.”

Flora Duh on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

I would camp out at my polling place if that is what it took to vote.

I have never wanted to cast a vote more than I do this one.

Most important vote of my life I’m pretty sure.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

If Obama is reduced to campaigning in a State that he is supposedly winning by 12 point’s, that tells you that the democrat internal polls don’t have him winning by 12 points, the internals must have him pretty close to tied.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

I recently came to the conclusion that Obama campaign internal polling are not showing the truth about Obama bad shape in any of the battleground states… Do not underestimate how delusional these people are and they rather lie to themselves convincing themselves that they are winning than facing the reality of utter defeat… Think about it, Obama thought that he really won the first debate… When the top guy is that delusional then his campaign would not dare to tell him the truth and in fact they do not want to know the truth because they will not be forced to lie to him by stating that he is doing well when in reality he is doing very bad…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

BREAKING NEWS Nov. 7th 2012: Despite only receiving 57 Electoral College Votes Mainstream Media Declare Obama Victory.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate.

I guarantee you, the majority of that 5.8% are Ron Paul supporters, backing Gary Johnson. Would bet my bottom dollar on it.

Time to make a play for them, Team Mitt. Maybe bring Rand out to Iowa. Maybe even work the Old Man for some kind of gesture…

JohnGalt23 on November 1, 2012 at 10:58 AM

When the top guy is that delusional then his campaign would not dare to tell him the truth and in fact they do not want to know the truth because they will not be forced to lie to him by stating that he is doing well when in reality he is doing very bad…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Meanwile, the latest poll suggests Obama has 100% of the unicorn vote in this country.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:59 AM

gumbyandpokey has runied Gumby and Pokey for me forever.

djl130 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Being in SOCAL, I went out and bought a Gumby “pinata” that is going to meet my friend, the Louisville Slugger the minute MSNBC calls the race for Romney on Tuesday night…

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I don’t use the over used term lol unless I actually lol. And I did.

tj4osu on November 1, 2012 at 11:00 AM

I recently came to the conclusion that Obama campaign internal polling are not showing the truth about Obama bad shape in any of the battleground states… Do not underestimate how delusional these people are and they rather lie to themselves convincing themselves that they are winning than facing the reality of utter defeat… Think about it, Obama thought that he really won the first debate… When the top guy is that delusional then his campaign would not dare to tell him the truth and in fact they do not want to know the truth because they will not be forced to lie to him by stating that he is doing well when in reality he is doing very bad…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Ahhh, Hitler’s Generals come to mind, scared shirtless of Hitler’s rage, they refused to inform Der Fuhrer of the actual situation until the Russian were kicking the door in.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

What an awful time to be a Democrat. Having to waste your vote on Obama. It would be heartbreaking to know that this man was your best hope to transform America into what you wanted it to be – and he turned out to be a total fraud.

To know that America rejected Obama and your ideology so thoroughly. To know that so many of your own Democrat party understood the destruction your ideology has brought to the Nation, and crossed over to vote for Romney.

Must be depressing.

On the flip side. What a wonderful time to be a Republican. Every trend is going our way. Next step – turnout. Next step – hold the Republicans in all three branches of government feet to the fire.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Update: For what it’s worth, the University of Iowa’s Hawkeye Poll shows a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Romney having an edge of less than a point — but note the levels of support for the incumbent (via Guy Benson):

I don’t know about that. Neither the topline pdf or the methodology pdf says anything, that I caught, about likely voters.

Additionally, they controlled for youngest voter in the household, and the only question they asked was will you vote with the affirmative response rate being 94%.

This sounds like and all adults poll that skews to the youngest age brackets.

Dusty on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM

I’ve been told that the internals in WI show Obama +2. He’s going to win by a Kerry/Bush type margin.

i’ve been told that axelturf will lose his mustachio if bo loses pa mi mn..oddly he did’t bet his stash on wi

runner on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Gallup delivered some additional bad news to Mr. Obama on early voting. Through Sunday, 15% of those surveyed said they had already cast a ballot either in person or absentee. They broke for Mr. Romney, 52% to 46%. The 63% who said they planned to vote on Election Day similarly supported Mr. Romney, 51% to 45%. source

hmm, do I believe an established well-known and respected pollster – or an infamous troll named after clay animation figures who makes wild predictions that always end up wrong – who’s only claim to fame is getting blocked from numerous political blogs?

gee, that’s a tough one.

Flora Duh on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Hey goopey and pukey. If you think state polls are all that how about the latest by the Hawkeye poll. Loser.

jistincase on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Being in SOCAL, I went out and bought a Gumby “pinata” that is going to meet my friend, the Louisville Slugger the minute MSNBC calls the race for Romney on Tuesday night…

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

As a fellow Southern California resident, I find this highly offensive… The only way you can ease my outrage… is to invite me over and guarantee me the first swing at Gumby…

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Most important vote of my life I’m pretty sure.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Amen to that.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Ahhh, Hitler’s Generals come to mind, scared shirtless of Hitler’s rage, they refused to inform Der Fuhrer of the actual situation until the Russian were kicking the door in.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Yes the typcial bunker mentality…

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Tweets from NumbersMuncher this morning:

@NumbersMuncher

Obama needs a D+5 turnout this year to win the popular vote. Was D+7 in 08, even in 04&2010, D+3 in 2000. If GOP GOTV is good, Romney wins.

@NumbersMuncher

All signs point to a much different electorate than 08 (early voting, enthusiasm, party ID surveys). With five days to go thats not changing

@NumbersMuncher

Romney is pulling more dems than Obama gets reps. That is also consistent with last two elections. Its ANOTHER reason Romney can win big.

@NumbersMuncher

Romney is still leading with indys in the polls that are post-Sandy, and that should break to him in the end.Obama and Kerry both won indies

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Hey goopey and pukey. If you think state polls are all that how about the latest by the Hawkeye poll. Loser.

jistincase on November 1, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Sure, throw it into the mix and average them all out and you will get the winner.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

If the Obama media is so willing to skew poll results by using unrealistically high dem percentages to get the results they want, why should we be surprised if they simply LIE about the results in the first place?

Just start with the results you want and work backwards.

Obama +x, back calculate the results and, VOILA!!!
Obama ahead by +x.

It isn’t so mathematically complicated that the Obama media is incapable of doing it.

Gunlock Bill on November 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

About the Hawkeye Poll

Likely voters in the 2012 presidential election are self-identified. A total of 320 respondents were interviewed in Iowa, with 302 stating that they plan

According to this poll, 95% of their respondents are voting. They don’t even say if the respondents are registered or if they are just adults.

Either way, there is no way that 95% of any population is voting. Bogus poll.

Likely voter screens are the new black when it comes to analyzing polls.

ChrisL on November 1, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Most important vote of my life I’m pretty sure.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:57 AM

But is it your first time? ;0

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Marquette University 5/23 – 5/26 600 LV 52 45 Walker +7

I would never trust a NBC/Marist poll. Never.

Marquette University demonstrated the ability to correctly poll the state of Wisconsin during the very recent Scott recall election.

Two weeks ago they had Obama+1. This week they have Obama+8 in a D+5 poll where Ryan is only Likeable+4. This is their final Wisconsin poll upon which their reputation will be staked.

Not good news for us (me/we/us). Not good at all.

Carnac on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

If I had a few R+10 polls to weight out the other RCP D+bullsh*t polls, I’d be happy to oblige.

As it is, RCP is Really Crappy Polling.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

@NumbersMuncher is teh good, so is @adrian_gray

runner on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Do trolls keep a schedule? Are they getting paid overtime? Is there a campaign troll union? If there isn’t, why not?

Do they get a break time?

Are they on a contract, or an actual employee of some kind?

Does it count as a job created? Or is it a job saved if they were campaign trolls in 2010?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Man, that’s personal. You might as well ask what underclothes she is wearing.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Let’s take these one at a time, straight from the poll data. In Iowa, the sample D/R/I is 34/31/34, very similar to 2008′s 34/33/33, but off a bit from 2010′s 31/35/34. There isn’t that much difference between these three models, but there is some, particularly in undersampling Republicans. However, this poll finds Obama winning independents outside the MOE, 47/39, but far short of his 2008 margin of 56/41. Independents also have a better opinion of Obama (50/41) than Romney (38/48), although that’s not reflected in job approval (44/45). If Marist’s poll is accurate, Romney will have a tough time winning Iowa.

Obama is not going to get as high a % of Ds as he got in 2008 – anywhere. Rs are going to get a higher % than in 2008 – everywhere.

It’s curious (i.e. bs)that Independents favor Romney by double digits everywhere in the country but that in Iowa (and Ohio) Independents favor Obama.

Basilsbest on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

NBC/WSJ/MaristMarxist polls show Obama up in Iowa, virtual ties in NH, WI

(Corrected headline to show true sourcing…)

landlines on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Under the table minutes for their 0bamaphones.

They know the gravytrain will end soon and are thinking ahead.

The only time in their lives they have done so.

The 0bamphone is that important to these sponges.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

It’s curious (i.e. bs)that Independents favor Romney by double digits everywhere in the country but that in Iowa (and Ohio) Independents favor Obama.

Basilsbest on November 1, 2012 at 11:09 AM

I noticed that as well. Hence my earlier post about disreputable pollsters spiking their internals to look “legitimate.”

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Del Dolemonte and SWalker .. If President Obama was campaigning in New Jersey yesterday as you claim … I guess the good news for the Democrats is Governor Christie has obviously (after being the GOP convention keynote speaker) switched to the Democrats ,Christie was campaigning for the President …you have to love it although it almost gave Rush Limbaugh a stroke on the air… so if your latest delusion is the Democrats are worried about New Jersey it is hilarious… they weren’t concerned before Sandy and now with the new ticket of Obama/Biden/Christie they are even less concerned

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Guess what?! Intrade had Kerry winning in 2004! It also had Obamacare being declared unconstitutional! What happened there?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Gambling odds are better than Intrade. Intrade does have value, but since news organizations sometimes publish its numbers, a single large bet ($50,000) can change the odds. Anybody with cash can influence Intrade.

I found these historic posts about the Bush-Kerry odds…

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2002077117_bet30.html
http://large-regular.blogspot.com/2004/10/presidential-odds-only-poll-i-pay.html

Be careful about statements about the 2004 election. Betting was allowed as exit poll information was being released by the media while the polls were open. There were big odds swings on election day. The day before the election….Bush was a clear favorite and he won. Obama is a much stronger favorite this year. Simple fact.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM

another great day yesterday with the GOP convention keynote speaker Christie going out of his way on national tv singing effusive praises of President Obama …at least he is being intellectually honest …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I agree with you, Christie was right to heap praise on Barky. The man has set such a low bar in regards to his abilities that a mere phone call actually gets noticed, and TFDAP managed to make no less than 3 calls to the fat man.

Bishop on November 1, 2012 at 11:14 AM

[Dusty on November 1, 2012 at 11:02 AM]

Clarifying, from the methodology:

Respondent Identification: An initial attempt was made on answering the phone to reach the “youngest male who is 18 years or
older.” Alternatively, a female age 18 or older was interviewed. All who stated they were over age 18 and willing to participate in
the survey were included.

Likely Voters: The respondents were asked if they were planning on voting in the upcoming presidential election. Ninety-­‐six percent of the respondents said that they were planning on voting in the election. Only 4 percent of the respondents said that they were not planning on voting in the 2012 election.

Make that 96%, not 94%.

Not sure it’s really an all adults, but it’s somewhere between all adults and registered voters. It’s certainly not a likely voters poll. The pollster does appear to correct for gender and age, but doesn’t weight for “likely”. Again, as a suggested in a comment above about voter screen for likely, this is absent and there’s no way turn out will approach 96%.

Dusty on November 1, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Heard from a little birdie that Rasmussen’s Iowa poll will show that newspaper endorsements mean nothing.

Another day, another rotten battleground state poll for poor hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Sure, throw it into the mix and average them all out and you will get the winner.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:06 AM

You still here spewing your caca? How many polls have you misrepresented today?

Curtesy of Dr Demento
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TxOYm8En2ms

Gumby rode out of the West
with a poll on his chest
And he tried his best
to make it stay

In the heat of the fray
10 polls won’t stick to clay
But what the hay
he rode them anyway

It was Gumby
refrain: He was Gumby

It was a hell of a gun
but the hot midday sun
was a’burning dirty and mean
And it’s harder to shoot
when your gun’s hot to boot
in your hand’s custom green plasticine
like Gumby’s…

AH_C on November 1, 2012 at 11:16 AM

I thought Rasmussen was using a D+2 weighing on their latest polls. I’m guessing it’s going to be a D+1 or even a D+0 this year myself (thanks to my own formidable powers of prediction). I may have heard wrong, maybe that was just for a particular state.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Rasmussen has been bouncing around for a while so he may have dropped down to D+2 and I didn’t notice. I haven’t got the premium membership there so I cant see internals so I’m just going off info I see. Does anyone know the most recent partisan breakdown of the Rasmussen tracker?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 11:16 AM

“Bush was a clear favorite and he won. Obama is a much stronger favorite this year. Simple fact.

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 11:13 AM”

A very accurate post.

Bush had a small but consistent lead in the national polls the final week and had gone ahead solidly in OH in those final polls, as well. Neither of those things have happened for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

But is it your first time? ;0

Happy Nomad on November 1, 2012 at 11:08 AM

LOL! Nope I’m an “old pro” I’m sorry to say.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

How much are you getting paid to comment here?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

This thread have become unreadable – troll, troll, troll, troll.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Heard from a little birdie that Rasmussen’s Iowa poll will show that newspaper endorsements mean nothing.

Another day, another rotten battleground state poll for poor hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

The only good thing that can be said about you: “What a optimistic zero-trooper you are.” Couldn’t have happened without a willing suspension of critical thinking.

AH_C on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Outside of Colorado, Obama is winning early voting. Maybe not by as much as in 2008, but he’s racking up huge margins still.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I guess you are ignoring this: OBAMA’S EARLY VOTE ADVANTAGE COLLAPSES 22-POINTS OVER 2008… from Gallup.

Romney is also ahead in early voting in Pennsylvania.

Pew shows Obama’s early vote average has collapsed 26 points when compared to 2008.

So are you are back to GOTV and Early Voting as the bombshell (atomic?) win for Obama, or are you still stuck on the hurricane which isn’t going to affect voting that much in swing states.

(talked to a friend from VA yesterday, and he says voting won’t be affected at all).

But hey, I guess its a new day, you need a new ATOMIC event to make your life have some meaning.

Tomorrow, the jobs numbers, no matter what they look like, will be ATOMIC and devastating to the Romney campaign… in gumby’s head at least.

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

This thread have has become unreadable – troll, troll, troll, troll.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

That’s what happens when you do 10 things at once.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:51 AM

The whole thing about betting is that they do not factor in anything like people’s emotions or how they perceive what is going on around them. Just like an supposed underdog team that is not supposed to win that winds up mopping the floor with them. I have never in my life seen so much intensity on the side of Republicans. This whole country is on the edge of it’s seat and when Romney wins the sigh of relief will make Sandy look like a small whirl wind.

jistincase on November 1, 2012 at 11:19 AM

The only thing O’bamna did yesterday was campaign in a state he’s already winning by 12 points.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Obama is campaigning in Broward county of all places. If Obama feels the need to campaign in Broward county he’s screwed beyond belief.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Can we please get gumby banned already?? What a jerk..

Reminder Christie wants Romney to lose.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Are you making wild claims about OH again? Look, pal. I’ve already said Barky can’t win Ohio, and this “consistant lead” you keep talking about factors in a lot of heavy D+7 and D+8 polling skewing the results badly.

I don’t see Barky taking Ohio. PA, yes. OH, no.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

This thread have become unreadable – troll, troll, troll, troll.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Give up and let them have it?

Will the powers that be get the message…I doubt it. AP has more fun making idiotic snide remarks to those who like him. Rather than doing anything about the trash.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Heard from a little birdie that Rasmussen’s Iowa poll will show that newspaper endorsements mean nothing.

Another day, another rotten battleground state poll for poor hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Ed? Because, hasn’t Ed been saying that newspaper endorsements don’t matter? So…you’ve come over from the dark side?

Welcome home, child. Anyways, I think the point has been that newspaper endorsements don’t cause voters to vote one way and in fact usually end up reflecting the mood of the electorate instead.

Anyways, considering all of the polls that predicted Obama wins overestimated him by several points in 2008 with great Democrat turnout, I guess we’re going to have an early night, eh?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I thought Rasmussen was using a D+2 weighing on their latest polls. I’m guessing it’s going to be a D+1 or even a D+0 this year myself (thanks to my own formidable powers of prediction). I may have heard wrong, maybe that was just for a particular state.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:46 AM

He is using a D+3 for his national tracking, which still shows Romney up 2% nationally.

Based on Gallup’s extensive release last Friday, the electorate is looking like a R+1 this year.

Norwegian on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Del Dolemonte and SWalker .. If President Obama was campaigning in New Jersey yesterday as you claim … I guess the good news for the Democrats is Governor Christie has obviously (after being the GOP convention keynote speaker) switched to the Democrats ,Christie was campaigning for the President …you have to love it although it almost gave Rush Limbaugh a stroke on the air… so if your latest delusion is the Democrats are worried about New Jersey it is hilarious… they weren’t concerned before Sandy and now with the new ticket of Obama/Biden/Christie they are even less concerned

bob denver on November 1, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Sorry, Gilligan, but I never said the Democrats were worried about NJ, all I said was that O’bamna was campaigning in a state he was winning by 12 points.

As for Chris Christie, the two most recent “polls” (September) indicate that nearly half of Americans either have no idea who he is, or do not care.

-2

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If President Obama was campaigning in New Jersey yesterday as you claim … I guess the good news for the Democrats is Governor Christie has obviously (after being the GOP convention keynote speaker) switched to the Democrats

yeah ok..hey, notice anyone else in this picture ? to presiden’s far right? hey isn’t it the guy who switched to Dominican hookers ?!

runner on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Obama is campaigning in Broward county of all places. If Obama feels the need to campaign in Broward county he’s screwed beyond belief.

eyedoc on November 1, 2012 at 11:20 AM

He needs to be in home territory. He can’t campaign unless it’s a foregone conclusion. He has been handed everything in his entire life. He can’t make a case for himself – he needs the adoring fans in Broward county.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

I hope your giving gumby the baseball bat to make it exciting.

PrettyD_Vicious on November 1, 2012 at 11:23 AM

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