NBC/WSJ/Marist polls show Obama up in Iowa, virtual ties in NH, WI; Update: Hawkeye Poll gives Romney IA edge

posted at 10:01 am on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and the Wall Street Journal, in partnership with a few more final polls from some second-tier swing states that Barack Obama won in 2008 but might lose in 2012.  The Marist polls gives Obama some good news in Iowa, but warnings about New Hampshire and traditionally-safe Wisconsin.  All three polls suggest that momentum remains on Mitt Romney’s side:

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Let’s take these one at a time, straight from the poll data.  In Iowa, the sample D/R/I is 34/31/34, very similar to 2008′s 34/33/33, but off a bit from 2010′s 31/35/34.  There isn’t that much difference between these three models, but there is some, particularly in undersampling Republicans.  However, this poll finds Obama winning independents outside the MOE, 47/39, but far short of his 2008 margin of 56/41.  Independents also have a better opinion of Obama (50/41) than Romney (38/48), although that’s not reflected in job approval (44/45).  If Marist’s poll is accurate, Romney will have a tough time winning Iowa.

The news is better in Wisconsin, and not just from the toplines:

Among likely voters in Wisconsin, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Two percent back another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

The sample in this case is less solid. The D/R/I is 34/29/35; in 2008, turnout was 39/33/29, and I’m pretty sure Republicans aren’t going to underperform that outcome.  In 2010, it was 37/36/28, and in June’s recall election, it was 34/35/31.  I think in this case it’s Obama who’s in trouble, although he has a narrow lead with independents in Wisconsin, 48/44.  Obama won them by 19 in 2008.

Guessing outcomes in New Hampshire is almost always a fool’s errand, but we’ll take a look anyway. Obama’s up 49/47 in a 27/26/47 sample.  In 2008, it was almost identical at 29/27/45, and in 2010 27/30/44.  Independents obviously drive elections in the Granite State more than any other state, and indies give a slight edge to Romney, 47/46. Obama won them by 20 in 2008.

Overall, I’d say that while the toplines look decent for Obama and the samples look arguably solid, those numbers for independents should be a big, big worry.  Obama has lost most of his double-digit edges among indies in all three states, and is in a virtual tie in Wisconsin and New Hampshire with Romney in those demos. With Republican enthusiasm waxing and Democratic enthusiasm waning, these second-tier swing states could break Obama’s hopes of winning a second term.

Update: For what it’s worth, the University of Iowa’s Hawkeye Poll shows a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Romney having an edge of less than a point — but note the levels of support for the incumbent (via Guy Benson):

With the presidential election less than one week away, it’s still a close race in Iowa, a key swing state. Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Barack Obama among likely voters in the state, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today. The Hawkeye Poll is a teaching, research, and service project of the Department of Political Science in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent.

“Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

They show Obama with a slight edge among independents, 41.9/40.2, but both that and the overall level of support are very bad numbers for an incumbent.  If Obama hasn’t gotten above 45% five days before the election, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Election Night more than a point or two.


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Stop with those NBC/Marist polls . . . wait until you have something with more validity and reliability.

rplat on November 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

All the polls are reliable in that they are telling you who they were able to get on the phone. To use who you are able to get to answer the phone as a gage of who turns out is another thin entirely.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I am so ready to vote.

locomotivebreath1901 on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Obama is in big trouble in Wisconsin.

Another day, another set of polls showing independent voters rejecting Obama. No wonder Democrats are not happy.

bluegill on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Uh this is from a station that says the Red Cross doesn’t want can goods and clothing, remove this poll it has no credibility

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Stop with those NBC/Marist polls . . . wait until you have something with more validity and reliability.

rplat on November 1, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Obama is in big trouble in Wisconsin.

Another day, another set of polls showing independent voters rejecting Obama. No wonder Democrats are not happy.

bluegill on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

I guess you can’t read. Obama is winning Independents in WI.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I just threw a bunch of feathers into the wind. They went West. Is that significant?

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Get out of here gumby you have no credibility and you are a shill,

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:08 AM

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: New numbers even more troubling for Obama (Cook Political Report)
Twitter ^ | 11/01/12 | Dave Wasserman
Posted on November 1, 2012, 9:55:46 AM EDT by TonyInOhio

I’ve been following Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report on Twitter. He has been updating the tallies of the early vote in Virginia, and what he is finding is more and more bad news for Obama:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Today’s new 10/31 numbers even more troubling for Obama. His best counties way off ’08 pace

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Turnout down 13.6% in Obama ’08 localities, vs. just 1.1% in McCain ’08 (statewide down 9.2%)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE 10/31: 185,489 ballots cast in Obama localities (214,783 by this pt. in ’08), 115,908 in McCain (117,224 in ’08)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Even more worrisome for O…in Kerry ’04 localities (hardcore D places), turnout -18.1% vs. ’08 (only -1.7% in Bush)

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Obama strongholds Arlington -20.0%, Fairfax – 20.9%, Richmond -13.7% (vs. just -9.2% statewide). Hmm..

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you please, I present to you the definitive example of claymation logic.

Behold.

turfmann on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Uh this is from a station that says the Red Cross doesn’t want can goods and clothing, remove this poll it has no credibility

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Funny that you say that, I just heard on the radio that they are starting to see food shortages in some of the hurricane hit areas. They interviewed a lady saying she was starting to run out of food.

txmomof6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Was there any point to gumbyandpokey besides spamming, more importantly why does Hotair put up with this spamming? Cause if its about generating traffic this site needs to think about its rules of engagement here. I LIKE when liberals post here, but spam isn’t an argument.

rob verdi on November 1, 2012 at 10:11 AM

GOTV

cmsinaz on November 1, 2012 at 10:11 AM

Hawkeye poll in Iowa Romney up 1 Obama only at 44

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2012/103112_HP_Presidential_Topline.pdf

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I know this post didn’t mention PA, but check this out.

Romney delivers anti-Obama ads at the gas pump

Somebody from Team Romney must have been reading my mind, because I was wondering a few months ago when gas hit $4 per gal here in Fl why they didn’t do this.

Flora Duh on November 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Obama is going to lose Iowa and New Hampshire for the simple fact that at least 10% of his “White Voters” from 2008 are going to vote for Romney in 2008 combined with 3% of his voters from 2008 (mostly young people) staying home in 2012.

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

rob verdi on November 1, 2012 at 10:11 AM

I have no idea

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

If Iowa goes blue and Romney wins, one of the very first items on the agenda should be a stop to corn subsidies. Motorists all around the country will heartily support whoever has the balls to squash the ethanol lobby.

Archivarix on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

So he had momentum before. But you said he didn’t….hmm. Turnout muliplied by splits is the election predictor. Your Obama is toast. As I’ve said before it’s over. Romney is not just slightly ahead, he is way ahead. Romney 300+ – Maybe not a landslide, but Obama doesn’t have a chance.

If I were a Democrat, I wouldn’t waste my vote for Obama in a loss. I’d just stay home and avoid the pain and embarrassment. Or I’d do the right thing for our future and vote for Romney.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I am so ready to vote.

locomotivebreath1901 on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Amen!!

That’s the only poll that matters.

labrat on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now

this is giving me as good a laugh as the titillating news about menendez

runner on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Possible proof that Romney’s gonna win…

All whites are going to Hell.

I don’t think it’s over yet.

(Just double-check that voting machine…)

CPT. Charles on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 AM

If Romney wins Wisconsin, Iowa becomes meaningless. Truth.

Red Cloud on November 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I hate to break it to you……but you have been wrong on every prediction so far, (Walker, debates, job reports, etc etc,) and it will not change here.

Don’t you get tired of being constantly wrong?

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you please, I present to you the definitive example of claymation logic.

Behold.

turfmann on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Clay’s got neurons and synapses?? getouttahere

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:16 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I think we’ve found a more damaging windstorm bag than Sandy.

DevilsPrinciple on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Obama is going to lose Iowa and New Hampshire for the simple fact that at least 10% of his “White Voters” from 2008 are going to vote for Romney in 2008 combined with 3% of his voters from 2008 (mostly young people) staying home in 2012.

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:13 AM

You keep saying that and there’s no evidence to back it up. Obama is not going to lose 10% of his White Voters in IA.

Romney isn’t going to win just because you want him to. I’m sorry to break it to you.

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

The media needs to do their job.

derft on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Rasmussen (Mon-Tue-Wed) polling today continues to show no improvement for Obozo, still 49-47, Romney.

47% with 5 days to go equates to a guaranteed loss for an incumbent president.

But hold on tight to your D+Ridiculous state polls til the bitter end, if it makes you feel better.

kevinkristy on November 1, 2012 at 10:18 AM

“That’s the only poll that matters.

labrat on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 AM”

Thank you for the Loser’s Lament.

Election day is going to be hilarious.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012

EVEN YOU!…have to be getting tired of yourself!

KOOLAID2 on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

What is with these psychotic polls? All the oversampled Dem’s notwithstanding, who are these “participants” that seemingly change their minds from day to day. I just don’t believe them, especially something from NBC. Iowa? Why the tight numbers- Iowa ought to be a brighter red than Kansas is. I just don’t get it.

BettyRuth on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Hawkeye poll in Iowa Romney up 1 Obama only at 44
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2012/103112_HP_Presidential_Topline.pdf

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Wow, I didn’t realize Obama was performing that badly in states he won last time. Yes, it is clear that Obama is going to lose, but it looks like it may not even be close.

Obama is getting absolutely destroyed when it comes to support from independent voters. Independents just don’t like Obama. And can you blame them?

bluegill on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

gumbydonkey swore on everything holy that if Romney wins, it will be gone, gone, gone (at least till next open registration). i want to see that

runner on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Gee, wonder in which great state Dubuque is located? It’s where Mitt will be Saturday.

Read the news, then post.

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Election day is going to be hilarious.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

not for you

runner on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Rasmussen (Mon-Tue-Wed) polling today continues to show no improvement for Obozo, still 49-47, Romney.

47% with 5 days to go equates to a guaranteed loss for an incumbent president.

But hold on tight to your D+Ridiculous state polls til the bitter end, if it makes you feel better.

kevinkristy on November 1, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA
Romney doing VA, VA, VA today, and then WI, OH, OH tomorrow, then NH, CO, CO on Saturday. Nothing known for Sunday, yet

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:21 AM

gumbyandpokey has runied Gumby and Pokey for me forever.

djl130 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney. If Mitt had momentum before, it is all gone now.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Why stop your streak of zero for every prediction that you have made now?

Aside from Nate Silver, I can honestly say that you are the biggest idiot talking politics on the internet. And that is saying something.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

November 6th, 2012 the day America Wins and progressive/socialist/liberals lose!

Nuff ced!

D-fusit on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

D.M. Hawkins ‏@HawkinsUSA
Here’s the current visit tally for remainder: WI (O-2, R-1) OH (O-5, R-2) FL (O-1) CO (O-2, R-2) IA (O-1) NH (O-1 R-2) NV (O-1) VA (O-1 R-3)

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

ruined not runied

djl130 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Hawkeye poll in Iowa Romney up 1 Obama only at 44

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2012/103112_HP_Presidential_Topline.pdf

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I wouldn’t put too much stock in that poll…the sample size is tiny and there’s a large margin of error.

That said, I think the Marist poll of IA is an outlier. It’s a tossup, just like NH, OH, CO, etc.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

You keep saying that and there’s no evidence to back it up. Obama is not going to lose 10% of his White Voters in IA.

Romney isn’t going to win just because you want him to. I’m sorry to break it to you.

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Maybe he’s not going there because IA has only 6 EVs while other swing states like WI, FL, VA, OH, PA, CO, MI, and MN have far more. Notice he’s also not camping out in NH(4 EVs) in the final stretch. And it’s not like the Romney campaign can’t go after IA in other ways such as TV ads and GOTV efforts. Touting those newspaper endorsements won’t hurt either.

I know you’re an idiot, but even you can’t seriously be stupid enough to conclude that if Romney doesn’t show up to campaign in a state when there are only 5 days left in the election that it somehow means he’s conceding it to Obama.

Doughboy on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Gumby, you keep chokin’ that chicken like that, it’s gonna die.

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:24 AM

So, Obama “looks” presidential for a couple of days because of a hurricane (where he really didn’t do a damn thing but yap his flap) and that’s enough to convince swing voters to give him another shot at repeating the epic fail of the last four years?

natasha333 on November 1, 2012 at 10:24 AM

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

except they all are

runner on November 1, 2012 at 10:24 AM

Today Rasmussen AGAIN has Romney up 2. Another day, another bad poll for Obama.

It is too late for Obama to make up the lost ground. How much longer are his supporters going to cling to the lie that the hurricane is somehow going to carry Obama over the finish line. What a pathetic notion that was.

bluegill on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Game over. The kids have spoken

http://magazines.scholastic.com/Election-2012/Vote

sram on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Actually it’s exactly tied. But don’t let facts get in the way.

And… what’s the RCP avg again (even with D+9 Natl Journal poll included)?

Um, it’s 47.4. That would round to 47% exactly.

So like I said. An incumbent at 47% with 5 days to go is a sure loser.

But hold tight to your little D+Bogus state polls.

kevinkristy on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Douche alert. Gumbopokealilboy is here!

anchorman on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Ladies and Gentlemen, if you please, I present to you the definitive example of claymation logic.

Behold.

turfmann on November 1, 2012 at 10:10 AM

“My Brain Hurts!”

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM

John Podhoretz is tweeting that the Marist Iowa poll is a disaster.
1. Poll claims 45% of respondents have voted early, reality is 32%
2. Poll claims 62D/35R response for turned in ballots, reality is 42D/32R,

Mitsouko on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I early-voted Tuesday for Romney/Ryan, but this was in Florida. (I know, it’s a bit of a non-sequitur so far as Iowa goes.) It looks to me as if Iowa is in a dead heat, if Obama’s margin of “victory” amongst those polled has declined as much as it has since 2008.

Scriptor on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

RCP is laughable at this point. Too many skewed D+8, D+7 samples botching the samples. It is total trash. I’d go with Gallop and Ras at this point and ignore all the rest. Ras is finally backing off from the rediculous D+5 samples to only slightly D+.

The rest are only trying to paint Obama in a better position than he truly is, and again, the sampling is total crap.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Mitt is going there to WI, too. Milwaukee at State fair park (West Alis)tomorrow. This is your chance if you are in the upper midwest, have a good time. Get a sign for your lawn.

Fleuries on November 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

I hate to break it to you, but every single battleground poll coming out since the hurricane will be brutal for Romney.
gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

If people are so stupid that they are changing their vote for Obama just because of his “concerned face” in a photo op(which is all this hurricane is to him), then they are… stupid!

On a side note, gas prices have been lowered here in Wisconsin. Hmmm, just before the election. I guess we know who the Arabs want to win, don’t we?! All the more reason we have to get Obama out.

Sterling Holobyte on November 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Read the news, then post.

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Typical libs…. blah, blah, blah, I can’t hear you, blah, blah.

We’ll see you on Nov 6th and we won’t on Nov 7th.

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Game over. The kids have spoken

http://magazines.scholastic.com/Election-2012/Vote

sram on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Actually, that electoral map looks very, very realistic if you swap VA for FL.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:28 AM

gumbyandpokey has runied Gumby and Pokey for me forever.

we are all very fortunate that it can take time away from playing with legos and alphabet blocks to share its deep election analysis and thrilling news about bo’s excellent chances

runner on November 1, 2012 at 10:29 AM

You keep saying that and there’s no evidence to back it up. Obama is not going to lose 10% of his White Voters in IA.

Romney isn’t going to win just because you want him to. I’m sorry to break it to you.

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

In fact I have all the evidence to back it up. First every poll including the very biased media polls shows that Republicans are much more energized than democrats so my estimation of 3% of Obama voters from 2008 staying home in 2012 is a conservative estimate, it may be somewhere between 5% to 6% in reality…

Second in the vast majority of polls both in states and national, including the very biased media polls show that Romney is winning the independents by an avaerage of of 8 to 10%… Obama won independents by 8% in 2008… Therefore it is a loss if 16% for Obama among independents and the vast majority of indepdents are “White Voters”. So my estimate that Obama is going to lose 10% of his “White Voters” from 2008 to Romney in 2012 is in fact a conservative estimate an in reality it around 15%…

No one who is losing the independents by an averge of 8% is going to win the election and in particular when his base is not energized… Obama is going to lose this election.

mnjg on November 1, 2012 at 10:29 AM

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

That’s because they are already showing Romney in the lead for election day. Just because a poll catches more Dems on the phone, it doesn’t mean that more Dems will vote.

Turnout multiplied by the split numbers. That is the way you predict the election. The few that try to actually predict the outcome will re-weight their numbers on Monday to try to predict turnout multiplied by splits.

By any turnout and split model, Obama is toast. Early voting – he is toast. Approval – he is toast. Voter enthusiasm – he is toast. Voter registration – he is toast. Incumbent consistently at 47% – with D+ samples he is toast.

There isn’t one thing that a Democrat voter can be excited and enthused about. If I were a Democrat, I’d just stay home rather than to have to admit my whole life that I voted for Obama in the historic landslide of 2012. How depressing it would be to be part of the Obama campaign or to just be a Democrat right now.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:29 AM

The obsessive poll humping and pretense of omniscience are annoying, but gumby honestly has to be considered for some Troll Hall of Fame. How many days straight has it been going? It’s the Iron Horse of trolling.

Nick_Angel on November 1, 2012 at 10:29 AM

This Poll is Bull s…! I LIVE in IA. Obama will not win the Independents in IA. For Gawd sakes the Des Moines Register, the New York Times of IA and 5 of the states other largest newspapers endorsed ROMNEY! If these editorial boards could find the balls to endorse ROMNEY, many after years of endorsing rats including 08 then they know that this state is going R in a big way!
Oh and we ARE going to GOTV! Technology and volunteers is what we have this year. Prepare for the butt kickin of the century, and then we must take down the Presstitutes with scorn and ridicule!

ConcealedKerry on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I am so ready to vote.

locomotivebreath1901 on November 1, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Me too. I’ve been ready for four years.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

The only non-media, truly independent pollsters (who have been polling every day, all year) are Rasmussen and Gallup.

Rasmussen: Romney +2
Gallup: Romney +5

Avg: Romney +3.5 – which is exactly where it will be on election night.

kevinkristy on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Keep telling yourself that, skid mark. You’ve been saying that for the last month.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Every single thread I start to read is Ruined by that POS clayboy, I am sick of it.

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

One more time, for those who missed my post last night-an examination of historical (Gallup) polling data shows absolutely no “bounce” for any sitting President after a major hurricane. And that includes the most “recent” hurricane that came in the fall of an election year, Andrew in 1992.

The only thing O’bamna did yesterday was campaign in a state he’s already winning by 12 points.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Ed, what are the voter screens in these polls?

Ace has a post on this subject and link to a good post on it.

Dusty on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Plus early voting is not helping Obama out here. I figure – again while rare – the paper endorsement of Romney (in reality dissing Obama for being what he is, a thin skinned jerk) pretty much killed Obama there.

Question now is just the margin. I also think Wisconsin is going to come through for ROmney as well – it is moving towards him, the dems are crying about getting out the vote.

One interesting thing to study after these elections, since we don’t know yet – is early voting cannibilizing even more voters than we know in those stes that allow it? There have been some efforts to determine if each party is just stealing their certain voters. These studies suggest Obama is doing this more often, but wee will see.

Zomcon JEM on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

Why do people keep responding to the Art Clokey reject? Ignore the douchebag…he’s here solely to disrupt, derail, and pump up Obama.

Not sure why such blatant trolling is tolerated. These threads are annoying to go through with that garbage.

changer1701 on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

If these polls are accurate (big if) and they resemble turnout this year, then you can sure bet that we won’t be seeing Minnesota, Nevada or Pennsylvania in the Republican column on election day.

Of course, I prefer to believe that I can just chop of 1.9% from Obama from every Marist poll because this makes me sleep better at night.

Something that gives me a smile to think about..

On average, the polls slightly overestimated Obama’s strength. The final polls showed the Democratic ahead by an average of 7.52 percentage points — 1.37 percentage points above his current 6.15-point popular vote lead. Seventeen of the 23 surveys overstated Obama’s final victory level, while four underestimated it. Only two — Rasmussen and Pew — were spot on.

Romney Maintains Turnout Edge

Oh and my favorite:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.

So goes the Nation, so goes Ohio.

DeathtotheSwiss on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

There should be a Green Room for Trolls. There should be a rubber room for Gumby.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

IBD/TIPP has broken strongly for Romney even with it’s D+7 advantage.
National Journal has an even more ridiculous turnout model in place.

You said before that you thought there was going to be a D+3 national turnout.

You are are aware that you are predicting a Romney win right?

If it’s D+3, Romney is going to win if you look at the national polls. Rasmussen tracker has been polling at D+4 and still has Romney up 2 points. The Wapo Tracker moved from D+4 to D+7 to show the race tied again. Romney is actually winning the early vote accord to Gallup and Pew. Marist/Quinn are ridiculously oversampling Democrats and early vote numbers to prop up state polls…..and Republicans should be worried?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

sram on November 1, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Just great! You gave gumby another poll to whack to.

cozmo on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Ed refuses to ban him. It’s crazy.

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

BTW, Romney isn’t going to IA in the last 5 days, so even he doesn’t consider the state “in play.”

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Once again your analysis is 180 degrees wrong. But nothing new there.

BTW…..why is your idol going to WI twice in the last five days?

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I’ll just keep looking at the RCP national average, which has Obama ahead now.

None of the polls are breaking your way.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Your yeast infection is getting worse…and still no job. Poor thing.

AubieJon on November 1, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Every single thread I start to read is Ruined by that POS clayboy, I am sick of it.

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Yep.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I doubt many people have changed their minds since Mitt’s boom after the first debate. The variation of results the sampling and screening methods of the pollsters.

Base enthusiasm and independents will decide it.

forest on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

gumbyandpokey has runied Gumby and Pokey for me forever.

djl130 on November 1, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Being in SOCAL, I went out and bought a Gumby “pinata” that is going to meet my friend, the Louisville Slugger the minute MSNBC calls the race for Romney on Tuesday night…

No blindfold… no candy… no kids… Just me, Gumby, and a baseball bat…

And a good cigar for afterwards…

Khun Joe on November 1, 2012 at 10:34 AM

And it looks like a Dubuque IA event the next day, with the Des Moines newspaper endorsement, that is a nice time to enjoy everyone’s hard work since the Primaries. It is nice to see. And there is one on the border of NH,MA, and ME for New Englanders at the Portsmouth Airport. Cool. ME splits off its Electors by congressional district, and Romney will get at least one of ME’s four electoral votes!

No rain in the forecast so far for the Weekend, stuff is soggy already in NE!

Fleuries on November 1, 2012 at 10:35 AM

By any turnout and split model, Obama is toast. Early voting – he is toast. Approval – he is toast. Voter enthusiasm – he is toast. Voter registration – he is toast. Incumbent consistently at 47% – with D+ samples he is toast.

Outside of Colorado, Obama is winning early voting. Maybe not by as much as in 2008, but he’s racking up huge margins still.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Obama winning Independents? No.

mitchellvii on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Every single thread I start to read is Ruined by that POS clayboy, I am sick of it.

BeachBum on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Yep.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I agree, I’ll terminate my brief run at shooting a fish in a barrel. Not much fun anyway with his fingers in his ears and his head up his azz.

SteveInRTP on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Was there any point to gumbyandpokey besides spamming, more importantly why does Hotair put up with this spamming? Cause if its about generating traffic this site needs to think about its rules of engagement here. I LIKE when liberals post here, but spam isn’t an argument.

rob verdi on November 1, 2012 at 10:11 AM

At the very least, if we must respond to a poll, let’s not copy the troll post over again and again. For every troll post we have, there are five or six people that reprint it. That’s a 500-600% payback for troll garbage.

slickwillie2001 on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

BTW…..why is your idol going to WI twice in the last five days?

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Because if Obama wins OH, then WI is part of the only other path for Romney to get to 270 EV’s. Both Obama and Romney are all pretty much hitting the same states.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I suspect the shadier polling outfits are catching on that the enthusiam base and the independant vote on their internals are nailing them. Now they have to come up with BS to cover their top line. It’s going to be tougher to nail them. They were lazy before – not so much now.

Turtle317 on November 1, 2012 at 10:38 AM

I don’t know what to think and I am not sure there is enough Jack Daniels in this town to get me through Tuesday!

bopbottle on November 1, 2012 at 10:38 AM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Have you even bothered to look at the data from the SoS sites?

wargamer6 on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Albeit I don’t trust any poll it ain’t over till its over.

Speakup on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Wisconsin, where they just held a recall election for Gov. Scott Walker. The polls all said, it was going to be a CLOSE race. TIED was all that the pollsters kept repeating.

Before 9pm the race was called for Walker. So much, for pollsters and CLOSE races.

WV. Paul on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Me too. I’ve been ready for four years.

gophergirl on November 1, 2012 at 10:30 AM

heh. That reminds me of a tweet I saw earlier. A reporter asked a man coming out of a polling place how long he had been waiting to vote. The man replied, “four years.”

Flora Duh on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Predictive Markets Update:

Obama increases to a 2.25:1 favorite:

Wed: 2.0:1
Thur: 2.1:1
Fri: 2.15:1
Sat: 2.25:1
Mon:
Thur:

The odds of an Obama victory increased for the fourth day in a row. The electoral college tells the story. Obama has two pathways to a second term:

Path #1: Obama wins Ohio
Path #2: Obama wins Wis, Iowa, Nev, Colorado, & NH

Overnight, wagering odds have strengthened in Ohio, and Colorado has flipped from lean Romney to lean Obama. Obama is now favored in all path #2 states. Virginia odds flipped overnight from Romney favored to even. Path #2 will be re-evaluated if Virginia stays in play.

Think for yourselves and do your own research..

http://linemakers.sportingnews.com/sport/2012-10-23/presidential-election-odds-2012-barack-obama-mitt-romney-debate-white-house

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/winner

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Ed, what are the voter screens in these polls?

Ace has a post on this subject and link to a good post on it.

Dusty on November 1, 2012 at 10:31 AM

That’s a very good question. Some of the recent pro-Obama polls have likely voter screens that are allowing in 95-99% of registered voters. Utter nonsense.

strictnein on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

:) khun joe

cmsinaz on November 1, 2012 at 10:40 AM

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