NBC/WSJ/Marist polls show Obama up in Iowa, virtual ties in NH, WI; Update: Hawkeye Poll gives Romney IA edge

posted at 10:01 am on November 1, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and the Wall Street Journal, in partnership with a few more final polls from some second-tier swing states that Barack Obama won in 2008 but might lose in 2012.  The Marist polls gives Obama some good news in Iowa, but warnings about New Hampshire and traditionally-safe Wisconsin.  All three polls suggest that momentum remains on Mitt Romney’s side:

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Let’s take these one at a time, straight from the poll data.  In Iowa, the sample D/R/I is 34/31/34, very similar to 2008′s 34/33/33, but off a bit from 2010′s 31/35/34.  There isn’t that much difference between these three models, but there is some, particularly in undersampling Republicans.  However, this poll finds Obama winning independents outside the MOE, 47/39, but far short of his 2008 margin of 56/41.  Independents also have a better opinion of Obama (50/41) than Romney (38/48), although that’s not reflected in job approval (44/45).  If Marist’s poll is accurate, Romney will have a tough time winning Iowa.

The news is better in Wisconsin, and not just from the toplines:

Among likely voters in Wisconsin, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and those who voted absentee, President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden receive the support of 49% to 46% for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.  Two percent back another candidate, and 3% are undecided.

The sample in this case is less solid. The D/R/I is 34/29/35; in 2008, turnout was 39/33/29, and I’m pretty sure Republicans aren’t going to underperform that outcome.  In 2010, it was 37/36/28, and in June’s recall election, it was 34/35/31.  I think in this case it’s Obama who’s in trouble, although he has a narrow lead with independents in Wisconsin, 48/44.  Obama won them by 19 in 2008.

Guessing outcomes in New Hampshire is almost always a fool’s errand, but we’ll take a look anyway. Obama’s up 49/47 in a 27/26/47 sample.  In 2008, it was almost identical at 29/27/45, and in 2010 27/30/44.  Independents obviously drive elections in the Granite State more than any other state, and indies give a slight edge to Romney, 47/46. Obama won them by 20 in 2008.

Overall, I’d say that while the toplines look decent for Obama and the samples look arguably solid, those numbers for independents should be a big, big worry.  Obama has lost most of his double-digit edges among indies in all three states, and is in a virtual tie in Wisconsin and New Hampshire with Romney in those demos. With Republican enthusiasm waxing and Democratic enthusiasm waning, these second-tier swing states could break Obama’s hopes of winning a second term.

Update: For what it’s worth, the University of Iowa’s Hawkeye Poll shows a virtual dead heat among likely voters, with Romney having an edge of less than a point — but note the levels of support for the incumbent (via Guy Benson):

With the presidential election less than one week away, it’s still a close race in Iowa, a key swing state. Mitt Romney has a slight edge over Barack Obama among likely voters in the state, according to a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll released today. The Hawkeye Poll is a teaching, research, and service project of the Department of Political Science in the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences (CLAS).

Obama has a slight lead in Iowa among all respondents, with 42.7 percent of the vote to 41.0 percent for Romney, with 10.5 percent undecided and 5.8 percent preferring a third party candidate. Romney leads among likely voters, though, with 45.2 percent of the vote compared to 44.4 percent for Obama, with 6 percent undecided and 4.3 percent preferring a third party candidate. The margin of error for the survey of 320 Iowans is 5.6 percent.

“Our results show Romney making advances and perhaps taking the lead in Iowa, and that the race continues to be close and within the margin of error,” says Frederick Boehmke, associate professor of political science in the UI CLAS and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. “It appears that the final result will be determined by each campaign’s ability to turn out supporters and to capture the votes of those last few undecided voters.”

They show Obama with a slight edge among independents, 41.9/40.2, but both that and the overall level of support are very bad numbers for an incumbent.  If Obama hasn’t gotten above 45% five days before the election, don’t expect those numbers to improve on Election Night more than a point or two.


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It’s all common sense.

Being strongly ahead in early voting in OH, all the battleground state polls being released showing Obama ahead, the good economic/jobs news (with more to come tomorrow), and the RCP national average showing Obama ahead all show Obama has the momentum in the final week. And, yes, the hurricane seems to be the moment that fate intervened on Obama’s behalf. Romney lost his momentum and never got it back and Obama started rising in the national polls. Add in Christie treating Obama like The Messiah, and it’s pretty easy to figure out he’s winning re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Wow, so much delusion in the above paragraph, that the only
Truth typed was your screen name.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

peachbrain Dolemonte … sorry the right wing God Rush already issued the official take on Christie campaigning for Obama …it was such a blatant tell on his part … If Rush didn’t think Christie suckerpunched Romney he wouldn’t have had a stroke about Christie on air yesterday … your illiterate ramblings don’t mean a thing next to Rush

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

Anything to do with NBC is a joke. NBC has no credibility!

jqc1970 on November 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

I really thin the O campaign is in “save face” mode. If Romney wins with less than 300 EV, they can blame it on the bad economy, republican stole the vote, etc. If the tsunami hits like I hope it will, and Romney gets in the mid 300 EV, then that becomes a total rebuke of the last four years. On the other hand, dems could turn out in greater numbers than they did four years ago and O could eke out a close victory. I just don’t see the last one happening.

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Christie wants Obama to win..m’kay.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 12:36 PM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

You’re a moron. That can’t be repeated often enough.

HumpBot Salvation on November 1, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Near-future headline:

Romney Wins, Gumby Hardest Hit

Steve Eggleston on November 1, 2012 at 12:36 PM

.

Thank you for the Loser’s Lament.

Election day is going to be hilarious.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 10:19 AM

Agreed. Your tears will be entertaining, and yes, why not , hilarious too.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:38 PM

peachbrain Dolemonte … sorry the right wing God Rush already issued the official take on Christie campaigning for Obama …it was such a blatant tell on his part … If Rush didn’t think Christie suckerpunched Romney he wouldn’t have had a stroke about Christie on air yesterday … your illiterate ramblings don’t mean a thing next to Rush

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

this makes you seem like an idiot. how many times do we have to tell you Rush does not run the republican party? even he admits he doesnt. he just happens to be a loud mouth who is a republican. just because he is an opinionated man and actually uses his brain to get his opinion out on the air waves does not make him our God, and to speak that way is a sacreligious in my opinion. it shows a deep lack of understanding on your part in how others who feel differently then you do view the world. please refrain from smearing my Lord and Savior with your vile tongue.

OT/ morning Walker!

katee bayer on November 1, 2012 at 12:38 PM

Christie wants Obama to win..m’kay.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 12:36 PM

So what, it’s not like he has a magic wand to make it happen. And it’s not like jersey was going for romney anyways.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:39 PM

Evidently, our Moderators, are using Gumby as a method of driving up Thread Numbers.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

And by driving up their thread counts, they’ve driven away so many great commenter’s who don’t want to be bothered wading through troll sh!t.

JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Agreed. Your tears will be entertaining, and yes, why not , hilarious too.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:38 PM

The dims will win a seat or two in the bluest of blue places and gumbo will declare victory. It will be funny.

VegasRick on November 1, 2012 at 12:41 PM

OT/ morning Walker!

katee bayer on November 1, 2012 at 12:38 PM

And Good morning to you K/B… ;)

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Does anyone think that CBS/NBC?NYT ect. are going to renew the contract of any pollster who disagrees with Nate Silver and their own prefences. You don’t think they got a call last week to let them know that any bad news on the eve of the election would be looked on unfavorably. I get the impression from watching Rasmussed on Fox is that he knows he doesn’t even have to call it for Romeny and he is closer to the result no matter how much Romney wins that anyone but Gallup. He says he predicts a D+2 turnout even though his own wesbite has POLLED R+1. He just flat out shaved 3 points of his own data. As a BS in Stats I would only see someone to flat out throw a bias into their number like that if they thought it put them in a better range to have the election correct compared to the in the tank crowd.

Bottom line. If Rasmussen is having his turnout from R+1 to D+2 then I would add 3% to any prediction he makes in favor of Romney.

Just to repeat for people who don’t understand. Since the n the tank crowd is 3% or more in favor of Obama Rasmussen can move 3% towards more to Obama and own all the ground from narrow Obama win to Romney landslide in the most accrate pollster sweepstakes.

Conan on November 1, 2012 at 12:42 PM

I noticed you have not answered me gumby.

I really don’t expect you to.

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 12:43 PM

Evidently, our Moderators, are using Gumby as a method of driving up Thread Numbers.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 11:30 AM

And by driving up their thread counts, they’ve driven away so many great commenter’s who don’t want to be bothered wading through troll sh!t.
JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 12:40 PM

This cannot be stated enough.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

Anything report with NBC being involved is invalidated right off the bat. Skewed polls and liberal trolls are all the Socialists have left to try and save this election.

Come election night we will find out that people weren’t as forthcoming with the pollsters as they could have been.

President Romney will win 52-47. Take it to the bank. However, vote and GOTV as if it is tied and your vote or someone you convince to vote Romney swings it to take back America!

Take heed that when you feed the trolls here you are helping to keep them gainfully employed. Like all parasites they live off you.

Rockshine on November 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Wow, so much delusion in the above paragraph, that the only
Truth typed was your screen name.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

That’s saying a lot when his screen name is a PlayD’Oh! character.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

sonny bono on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Del, please do not call him Sonny Bono, Sonny Bono was a personal friend of mine, he was a fine man and a good solid conservative who genuinely loved his country.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 12:45 PM

And by driving up their thread counts, they’ve driven away so many great commenter’s who don’t want to be bothered wading through troll sh!t.
JPeterman on November 1, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Sadly true.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:46 PM

peachbrain Dolemonte …blah, blah, blah

sonny bono on November 1, 2012 at 12:34 PM

You’re Funny.

Almost as funny as these posters at Democrat Underground, who still hate Chris Christie.

And from another DU thread about Christie, a reminder of what he said about O’bamna just last week:

“You’ve been living inside 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. for the last four years,” “If you don’t think you can change Washington from inside the White House let’s give you the plane ticket back to Chicago you’ve earned.”

“If he believes that, then what the hell is he doing asking for another four years?” “We’re happy to give you a bus ticket to the outside, Mr. President.”

“Obama is “blindly walking around the White House looking for a clue.”

“He’s like a man wandering around a dark room, hands up against the wall, clutching for the light switch of leadership and he just can’t find it.”

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:48 PM

Gumby. Get ready with cut/copy/paste from the campaign. Ed will post a Wisconsin tied poll in a few minutes.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Gumby, if Obama is so far ahead in state polls, which are oversampling Democrats or, perhaps, I should say that they are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than in 2008 v national polls, which have a more realistic turnout model, why isn’t this Democratic advantage showing up in the House races?

One would think that Democrats would be on the verge of sweeping out a majority of the Tea Party Congressmen and retaking the House, if Democratic turnout was going to be as strong or stronger than in 2008.

A funny thing is happening though. Almost all of the Tea Party Congressmen are going to be safely reelected.

What’s up with that?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:52 PM

Just because the lefties don’t like Christie doesn’t mean that we have to. It could be bipartisan agreement.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 12:53 PM

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

Wow, so much delusion in the above paragraph, that the only
Truth typed was your screen name.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

That’s saying a lot when his screen name is a PlayD’Oh! character.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 12:44 PM

BINGO! Just another Leftist living in a world of “make believe”

Remember this saying everytime It posts here.

“Against Stupidity, the Gods themselves contend in vain”

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Limbaugh just made a hilarious point-if this Hurricane is the “game-changer” for O’bamna that the Left claims it to be, isn’t that an admission on their part that they were Lying when they said Romney was Toast before the hurricane?

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:33 PM

That was exactly my point in response to one of the first posts by that lobotomized talking point machine, gumby, the next day after the hurricane. He said something that probably obama is the mesiah indeed :) if he could make a hurricane happen that is actually going to SAVE him and his campaign :)… And this was the same idiot who thread after thread after thread was telling everybody that obama was winning, despite evidence to te contrary :)…so, if he was winning, why he needed to be saved by the elements ? :)

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Katee bayer … you don’t own God … my God is compassionate and allows the term God to be use to make a point ,,,, so don’t preach to me … your crying aside …Rush is considered a God to many Repubs and his opinions do matter to a lot of Repubs …sorry he is your cross to bear …not mine

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

We have Rush. U2 has Obama.

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 12:56 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen has Romney up 1 in Iowa, 49-48. Was tied @ 48% last week.

INC on November 1, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 12:13 PM

Del, please do not call him Sonny Bono, Sonny Bono was a personal friend of mine, he was a fine man and a good solid conservative who genuinely loved his country.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 12:45 PM

How about if I call it “The Edge”?

Or maybe “Over The Edge”?

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

peachbrain dolemonte….. you are so dim witted, showing Christie ripping on the President in the past, just gives more credibility that Christie thinks the President is doing a great job leading on hurricane relief .

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Katee bayer … you don’t own God … my God is compassionate and allows the term God to be use to make a point ,,,, so don’t preach to me … your crying aside …Rush is considered a God to many Repubs and his opinions do matter to a lot of Repubs …sorry he is your cross to bear …not mine

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Really?? He’s our Cross to Bear??
He’s a guy on the radio..you know those electronic gadgets
that have Tuning Dials? You just typed 2 separate but opposite
statments.

“you don’t own God”

“Rush is considered a God to many Republicans”

Re-read your post, and see if you can find the one which does
NOT belong?

And now a word from our Sponsor:

Jesus H. Christ, you are incredibly stupid.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Pop Quiz Hot Shot: If you believe in God, how do you justify supporting a party that left him out of their platform, and stands for things that the Bible says that he is against?

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Where did you get your “internal” Wisconsin numbers from?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Rasmussen: Wisconsin: Romney 49, Obama 49

Heard from a little birdie that Rasmussen’s Iowa poll will show that newspaper endorsements mean nothing.

Another day, another rotten battleground state poll for poor hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen has Romney up 1 in Iowa, 49-48. Was tied @ 48% last week.

Romney: 2

RuPoll: 0

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Rush is considered a God to many Repubs

Over The Edge on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

No he isn’t.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 1:03 PM

NumbersMuncher ‏@NumbersMuncher

Rasmussen has Romney up 1 in Iowa, 49-48. Was tied @ 48% last week.

Romney: 2

RuPoll: 0

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

I read this piece by Henninger in the WSJ, yet another angle to look at the OH vote from.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:02 PM

Notice how he just runs away when he is proven wrong. He never addresses it, he just pops up in another thread and starts all over.

Its like a game of whack-a-gumby!

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

https://twitter.com/SalenaZitoTrib

A few tweets:

Rubio in Delaware County 2nite 4 whats turning out to be a big rally if PA flips keep an eye on Bucks/Chester/Delaware to make it happen

Paul Ryan will be in Middletown Pennsylvania Saturday I suspect a Clinton or Biden visit will be announced soon.

INC on November 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

peachbrain dolemonte….. you are so dim witted,

Over The Edge on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Calling me names to begin your post is an admission you’ve lost the debate.

Thanks for playing!

-2

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Where did you get your “internal” Wisconsin numbers from?

oldroy on November 1, 2012 at 11:38 AM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign. the voices in my head.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Better

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 1:06 PM

If President Obama was campaigning in New Jersey yesterday as you claim … I guess the good news for the Democrats is Governor Christie has obviously (after being the GOP convention keynote speaker) switched to the Democrats

yeah ok..hey, notice anyone else in this picture ? to presiden’s far right? hey isn’t it the guy who switched to Dominican hookers ?!

runner on November 1, 2012 at 11:22 AM

LOL. Love how the headline calls out Oboobi and the cheap pedophile while omitting the fat man.

AH_C on November 1, 2012 at 1:06 PM

kingsjester because God isn’t owned by your bible

todd p if jesus christ sponsored you… God would throw him out of his kingdom …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 12:45 PM

How about if I call it “The Edge”?

Or maybe “Over The Edge”?

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Either of those work fine, though, over the edge seems the more accurate… ;)

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM

From someone connected to a talk show host who got them from the campaign. the voices in my head.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:41 AM

Better

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Who knew that RuPoll was related to Harry Reid?

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Notice how he just runs away when he is proven wrong. He never addresses it, he just pops up in another thread and starts all over.

Its like a game of whack-a-gumby!

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

And, he NEVER answers my questions about sampling methodology and turnout assumptions. NEVER.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:09 PM

God would throw him out of his kingdom …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM

And you know this exactly how? People who claim to speak on God’s behalf, are either begging for a serious smackdown, or should at the very least only QUOTE God when claiming to speak on his behalf.

SWalker on November 1, 2012 at 1:09 PM

And now a word from our Sponsor:

Jesus H. Christ, you are incredibly stupid.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

todd p if jesus christ sponsored you… God would throw him out of his kingdom …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Hmm, guess my “sarcasm” did not take??

Oh well, Bellevue has other “methods”

Good Luck!!

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 1:10 PM

peachbrain dolemonte actually using that name on you… is calling you out for your silly name calling you have done to me first ( Bob Denver etc) I’m glad you are admitting you are asinine for doing it …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:10 PM

So are you are back to GOTV and Early Voting as the bombshell (atomic?) win for Obama, or are you still stuck on the hurricane which isn’t going to affect voting that much in swing states.

It’s all common sense.

Being strongly ahead in early voting in OH, all the battleground state polls being released showing Obama ahead, the good economic/jobs news (with more to come tomorrow), and the RCP national average showing Obama ahead all show Obama has the momentum in the final week. And, yes, the hurricane seems to be the moment that fate intervened on Obama’s behalf. Romney lost his momentum and never got it back and Obama started rising in the national polls. Add in Christie treating Obama like The Messiah, and it’s pretty easy to figure out he’s winning re-election.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:26 AM

I’m so saving this prediction to beat the plasticine Gumby upside the head tomorrow and going forward.

Say… You wouldn’t be a re-juvenated crrr6 would you.

She was pretty bold with a few predictions like “This will never come back to bite me”

AH_C on November 1, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Rush is considered a God to many Repubs and his opinions do matter to a lot of Repubs …sorry he is your cross to bear …not mine

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

I call bull stuff.

Cindy Munford on November 1, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Paul Ryan will be in Middletown Pennsylvania Saturday I suspect a Clinton or Biden visit will be announced soon.

INC on November 1, 2012 at 1:05 PM

This is right up the road from me…Hmmm.

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 1:12 PM

peachbrain dolemonte….. you are so dim witted, showing Christie ripping on the President in the past, just gives more credibility that Christie thinks the President is doing a great job leading on hurricane relief .

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Lobotomized one, stop masturbating publicly over your latest fantasy: The Fat Man making obama look good or something :)….do you even realize how pathetic your leftards are, if now you worship at th altar of Chrisie hoping that he will save hour mesiah or something…so, take your lobotomy and tissues ith you when you go. At least gumbey has the involuntary humor factor about him, you have nothing about you. Just go.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Swalker as usual you are not smart enough to recognize sarcasm , i was speaking for God as a joke in order to smack down folks like you and Katee etc who think you own God … no one can speak for God not any one notyou and not me

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:15 PM

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/11/01/Eight-reasons-Pro-Obama-Polls-Are-Wrong

Gumby, can you refute any of these points?

We all know you will fillibuster by talking about Sandy (which is annoying to someone like me, who lost power because of Sandy, and knowing that just like I really didn’t care, politically, about Bush’s response to Katrina, I dont expect anyone in Ohio to care about how Obama responds to me having no power). However, people like you and the idiotic Nate Silver cannot refute these, yet push polls that completely discount these points and actually show Republican turnout down and Democratic turnout better than in 2008.

milcus on November 1, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Heard from a little birdie that Rasmussen’s Iowa poll will show that newspaper endorsements mean nothing.

Another day, another rotten battleground state poll for poor hapless Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Looks like that little birdie lied to you.

midgeorgian on November 1, 2012 at 1:19 PM

ToddPA on November 1, 2012 at 1:12 PM

Go!

INC on November 1, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Rush is considered a God to many Repubs and his opinions do matter to a lot of Repubs …sorry he is your cross to bear …not mine

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 12:55 PM

Hahahaha, Rush a God to many republicans loool :)… you must be really, really old…oh, and stupid too….as for the cross, heh, you have heavier ones to carry, the ones of the bat-shite crazy Tingles, Schulz, Resist We Much (not our distinguished one, the real character:), Bashir what’s his face, .you name it…all the mental disease pathology spectrum is represented at MSNBC…and you worry about Rush loool :)…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:20 PM

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:15 PM

You haven’t answered. o pious one. How do you justify being on the side of a party that left God out of their platform, and stands for things that God is angainst. And, before you ask how I know what he is against, it’s because I’ve read The Book all the way through…several times.

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 1:21 PM

jimver easily the sickest and most pathetic poster on here … I am not a fan of Christie and I would not vote for him …the President does not need a savior he has the American voters who will elect hiim again …Christie supporting the President now is just so funny… it calls for comments …sorry Christie did it not me… complain to him …and it was even funnier when he was asked if was going to invite Romney to new Jersey … a big NOPE …priceless video

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:21 PM

peachbrain dolemonte actually using that name on you… is calling you out for your silly name calling you have done to me first ( Bob Denver etc) I’m glad you are admitting you are asinine for doing it …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Now you’re just beclowning yourself. Here’s some more rope.

Del Dolemonte on November 1, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Why are people defending Christie and his careerism??

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 1:23 PM

sorry I have to go,I have to drive some voters to the polls …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:24 PM

sorry I have to go,I have to drive some voters to the polls …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Living, Dead, or Nursing Home?

kingsjester on November 1, 2012 at 1:26 PM

sorry I have to go,I have to drive some voters to the polls …

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Your inmates from the mental asylum :)… Apparently you guys aten’t allowed to vote :)

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Aren’t, that is…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:28 PM

jimver easily the sickest and most pathetic poster on here … I am not a fan of Christie and I would not vote for him …the President does not need a savior he has the American voters who will elect hiim again …Christie supporting the President now is just so funny… it calls for comments …sorry Christie did it not me… complain to him …and it was even funnier when he was asked if was going to invite Romney to new Jersey … a big NOPE …priceless video

U2denver on November 1, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Like the Bloomberg smackdown to Obysmal whn he told him to go pound sand and not show his face in his state for photo-ops unil it’s all over :)….that was the hardest hit for our boy, since he is the preezy :) Christie simply said that he didn’t know if Romney was planning to visit his state or not, because he had a more imprtant job to do than worrying about campaigning and politics….Unlike Obama in NY, Romney never intended to visit Jersey.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I was gonna vote for Gary Johnson (I live in Minny) but after the first Debate I decided to cast a positive (though losing, at least here) for Mitt.

He has won me over in the past month.

Bruno Strozek on November 1, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Don’t sweat it. Mitt is so going to sweep OK, I have no qualms pulling for the 3rd party. :P

Speaking of which, I’m seeing quite a few Ron Paul signs in relation to Oboobi/BiteMe in Eastern Iowa along Route 67 on the Mississppi River and I’m seeing at least 15 Romney/Ryan signs to every O/B sign.

AH_C on November 1, 2012 at 1:36 PM

The last tracking poll in which Rasmussen released internals on, was using D+4, not D+3. Incidentally, the numbers haven’t shifted since then, so I’m assuming he’s continuing to use D+4.

Basically, Rasmussen is making very conservative estimates for Romney. They’re only generous in comparison to all the pollsters that insist on using 08 turnout models.

WolvenOne on November 1, 2012 at 11:34 AM

Last night on Fox, Rasmussen said 3 things which I found interesting. 1. The election was too close to call. 2. He thinks the turnout will be D+2. And 3. If Romney wins nationally by 1% or more he will win Ohio.

I do not understand why he is running D+4 samples when he thinks turnout will be D+2. I also do not understand why he thinks it’s going to be a D+2 turnout when Republicans have the voter identification and enthusiasm advantage.

I am confident that the turnout will be R+3-R+5.

Basilsbest on November 1, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Rass Iowa: Romney 49%, Obama 48%. Does this qualify as an atomic bomb?

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Folks, if you can avoid it, please, please do not feed the trolls!

I agree that g&p should have been banned long since. I can only hope that the moderators are letting it stay just through the election, so we can all enjoy pounding on it, and will ban it afterwards.

As for u2denver, you won’t change its mind. Just ignore its petty blasphemy as being utterly unimportant.

Mary in LA on November 1, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Mary in LA on November 1, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Above is my personal opinion — not trying to be the blog police here…

Mary in LA on November 1, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Who is voting for Mitt Romney? AKA let’s save America.

Catholics – who have been challenged by Obama in their faith and beliefs.
Blacks – who are against same-sex marriages as being immoral and who have suffered most from Obama’s failures.
Whites – who see that Blacks are voting for Obama because he’s Black; Whites will vote for Whites.
Republicans – none of which voted for Obamacare.
Tea Party followers – who like in 2010 are throwing out Liberals and RHINOS again.
Coal Miners – who are taking Obama’s threats to end coal mining in America seriously.
Vehicle drivers – those who are faced with TWICE the cost of gas since Obama took office.
Jobless workers – those who have been waiting for Obama to create jobs, but hasn’t; many have left the job market.
Stock and Bond holders – many of whom were shafted when GM and Chrysler went bankrupt.
Small Business owners – who have repeatedly been ignored by Obama.
Citizens against Obamacare – because of the upcoming increase in taxes and excessive regulation if Obamacare is not repealed.
Jewish folks – because Obama has not visited Israel even once since taking office; and Obama’s bad attitude toward Israel.
Hispanics – those who know that Obama’s failure to create sufficient jobs is hurting the U.S. economy in a bad way.
Business people – millions who are hesitant to grow because of the vast uncertainty due to Obama and Obamacare.
Workers – facing layoffs, underemployment and a worsening economy; lower wages.
Shoppers – those who see prices rising and product size shrinking; inventories reduced.
Concerned Citizens – who see the Benghazi incident as an Obama failure and even treasonous (un-American).
Concerned Citizens – who see Obama’s foreign policies as dangerous and failures.
Persons of Faith – who recognize Obama’s forcing provision by them of contraception to employees as Constitutional violations.
Gun owners – who have always been against the extreme liberal ideas Obama has for gun control.
Local government officials – who see Obama’s federal encroachment as unacceptable.
Truckers – who see the high price of gas as an attack on their livelihood.
Oil business – that reject Obama’s curbs on off-shore drilling.
Oil industry workers – that recognize the Keystone pipeline as Obama’s failure to encourage jobs and job growth.
Americans – who view Obama’s encouragement of high oil prices and lowered U.S. oil production as favoring OPEC and Arabs.
Concerned Congressmen – those that recognize that Obama has no cogent foreign policy, which could prove to be dangerous.
Individuals
Homeowners – who have seen their life saving and equity go down the drain because Obama has done nothing on the economy.
Health care providers – doctors and others who see Obamacare as a threat to their income; and harmful extreme regulations.
Concerned citizens – that are very concerned about the U.S. deficit and Obama’s extreme radical uncontrolled spending.
Others – concerned about Obama’s illegal activities, Fast and Furious, Benghazi, not defending DOMA, condoning illegal aliens.
Abortion foes – object to Obama’s callous lack of concern for the unborn and Obama’s radical third trimester abortion views.
Concerned Americans – who have been outright lied to by Obama when he claimed his administration would be transparent.
Car manufacturers – those that have seen car sales drop with Obama’s bad economy and economic policies hurting sales.
Housing developers – who like many others have seen the Obama economy cripple home construction and lower profits.
Mormons – who support Mitt Romney as a person of faith, good character, and honest principles.
Economists – that have expressed encouragement that Romney’s experience and knowledge will lead to true hope and results.
Military – seeing that Obama’s cuts will endanger their ability to protect our country.
Independents – who already have provided a surge for Romney, are convinced that the past 4 years of Obama is enough.
Evangelicals – who organized the largest get-out-the-vote for conservatism ever, in their concerted effort to defeat Obama.
Conservatives – a majority in U.S., are pushing hard to take the Senate, Presidency and House for the good of America.
Skeptics – who 4 years ago were duped into believing in Obama’s Hope and Change that eventually came to nothing, just lies.

and millions, millions more against Obama and his lies and failures.

Vote Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan. Let’s make America strong and great again because we can!

AdrianS on November 1, 2012 at 1:59 PM

I do not understand why he is running D+4 samples when he thinks turnout will be D+2. I also do not understand why he thinks it’s going to be a D+2 turnout when Republicans have the voter identification and enthusiasm advantage.

I am confident that the turnout will be R+3-R+5.

Basilsbest on November 1, 2012 at 1:48 PM

He gives himself some leeway there, just in case. I am more interested in his turnout polling, how does it look for Romney from his perspective…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:05 PM

Folks, if you can avoid it, please, please do not feed the trolls!

I agree that g&p should have been banned long since. I can only hope that the moderators are letting it stay just through the election, so we can all enjoy pounding on it, and will ban it afterwards.

As for u2denver, you won’t change its mind. Just ignore its petty blasphemy as being utterly unimportant.

Mary in LA on November 1, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Agreed, u2 denver is an idiot who is easily ignorable (no such word, I know :) G&P on the other hand spams a lot and is a very prolific poster, it gets harder and harder to scroll past his inanities…some of his posts are long too, if you noticed lately. but I agree, something must be done, some of the threads are unreadable.

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Again, why are we trying to justify Christie’s actions? This is just what he wants – for us to forget his blatant careerism and start praising him when the next You Tube video comes out.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

Also, most experts expect the unemployment rate to go UP tomorrow, not down. Additionally, last months job report did a big fat nothing for Obama, and you’re unlikely to see anything like that again. Long story short, if the economy has been floundering for years under your watch, one or two positive job reports at the very end of your term isn’t going to change the perception that you’re bad for jobs. We’ve ran into this exact scenario during Presidential elections a couple of times already, it just doesn’t make any difference.

Now seriously, cut out the trolling. We all know what you’re up to, and its an old tired gag at this point.

WolvenOne on November 1, 2012 at 11:43 AM

A little late, but some corroboration:

Back to 8%? | Why the October unemployment rate might be a November surprise

“The consensus, according to a survey by Reuters, is for gains of 125,000 with an unemployment rate of 7.9%. So Oliner’s forecast is right in the zone. Given a) slow GDP growth and b) the chill in business investment and confidence, an employment surge would be a shocker.”

right of the dial on November 1, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Again, why are we trying to justify Christie’s actions? This is just what he wants – for us to forget his blatant careerism and start praising him when the next You Tube video comes out.

Illinidiva on November 1, 2012 at 2:14 PM

What is it with your fixation with Christie? Let it go already…he isn’t all that important and nobody is praising him really…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:17 PM

Wasn’t Christie a keynote speaker at GOP convention? Even when die hard liberals Cuomo and Bloomberg tell Hussein to stay away this idiot does all he can to help Hussein out.

And some wanted this idiot to run this year? Wasn’t Coulter his huge fan? And where is she now on the subject?

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

What is it with your fixation with Christie? Let it go already…he isn’t all that important and nobody is praising him really…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:17 PM

I don’t think anyone is praising the idiot, simply pointing out that he has allowed Hussein to be on TV just days from D Day. For essentially doing nothing to help out the state. What has Hussein done for NJ in the past 2 days?

To allow him some breathing room and a way out of Benghazi discussion.

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 2:21 PM

And, he NEVER answers my questions about sampling methodology and turnout assumptions. NEVER.

Resist We Much on November 1, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Well, math is hard? ;)

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 2:36 PM

Wasn’t Christie a keynote speaker at GOP convention? Even when die hard liberals Cuomo and Bloomberg tell Hussein to stay away this idiot does all he can to help Hussein out.

And some wanted this idiot to run this year? Wasn’t Coulter his huge fan? And where is she now on the subject?

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 2:19 PM

She wrote or said something about it, but I don’t pay that much attention to her. Not sure if she put it in writing in a piece over at the Townhall or it was just a transcript of one of her TV appearance where she was asked about it…As dor Christie, couldn’t care less about him, I think he is good at running that state, period,but that’s pretty much it. Don’t see too much of a chance for him nationally, and realistically speaking, he is so challenged by his weight and all that it will be quasi impossible for him to sustain the levels of effort required by non stop campaigning..as for Bloomberg, I was happy to see some common sense coming from him, but don’t forget that NY is a more affluent state than NJ and Bloomdemberg was confident that he had the resorces locally to deal with it all…NJ is a relatively poor state… am not a mind reader, but Chrstie might have thought (bad judgement in my opinion) that some azz kissing and sucking up to O might help his case and his state…honestly, I really think that he was more concerned about his azz as a governor, and not so much with Romney’s national campaign…actually he said that much……

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Agree on most points. And would add that Christie pretty much shot any chance he ever had with this stupid move. It got NOTHING from the visit and photo op. Absolutely nothing. My relatives in NJ are still without power, some co-workers as well. A friend of mine living close to Atlantic City I still can’t reach. Gas lines are a mile long.

So, how did Hussein’s visit help anyone in NJ? Save for the WH idiot himself. Stupidest move Christie could have made, IMO.

riddick on November 1, 2012 at 3:00 PM

ShadowsPawn on November 1, 2012 at 12:43 PM

You expected one?

Zomcon JEM on November 1, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Bronco Bomba and hopenchange ride off into the sunset, head down, and Moooochelle back to not being proud of her country in an yet another embarrassing rebuttal of marxism…all is right in America again…
Buh-Bye hopenchange…

Strike Hornet on November 1, 2012 at 3:41 PM

first of all you are NOT God , nor are you a priest therefore YOU HAVE NO RIGHT to assess a penance on ANYONE. you are however the most despicable anti american thugocrat i have ever had the mispleasure of running across which says alot considering the company you keep (i.e. Gumby et al).go away better yet go to hades in a gilded cage with purple cushions!

katee bayer on November 1, 2012 at 12:00 PM

I DO have the power to assign penance for political sins. For voting twice for the idiot W to be President and for not raising a finger as he spent the country into bankruptcy, I command that you say 2920 Hail Hillaries (one for each day W was in office).

ZippyZ on November 1, 2012 at 4:42 PM

There are certain polls I always ignore…Marist…NBC…and PPP are among them.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 4:55 PM

There are certain polls I always ignore…Marist…NBC…and PPP are among them.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 4:55 PM

Everybody ignores those…

jimver on November 1, 2012 at 5:21 PM

Here are a couple of polls from a GOP polling firm…and it shows Romney ahead in Ohio. People can say it is a partisan poll, but so is PPP and they still act as if it is viable.

Terrye on November 1, 2012 at 5:29 PM

ABC/Wash Post tracking tonight has Obama +1, 49-48, with Romney’s advantage with Indies cratering. And the sample is now down to D+4.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 6:11 PM

ABC/Wash Post tracking tonight has Obama +1, 49-48, with Romney’s advantage with Indies cratering. And the sample is now down to D+4.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 6:11 PM

And once again gumby prematurely ejaculates over a flawed poll. First clue to bad sampling……73% absolutely voting, another 6% probable for a 79% likely voter rate……..yet 2008 showed a 62.2% rate, 2004 was 60.7%, 2000 was 55.3%.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2449

gumpy fails once again

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:07 PM

ABC/Wash Post tracking tonight has Obama +1, 49-48, with Romney’s advantage with Indies cratering. And the sample is now down to D+4.

gumbyandpokey on November 1, 2012 at 6:11 PM

That poll is actually tied…0.07% difference….or is it only tied when Romney is ahead by a bit like a few days ago?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 PM

That poll is actually tied…0.07% difference….or is it only tied when Romney is ahead by a bit like a few days ago?

Zybalto on November 1, 2012 at 10:15 PM

With a better likely voter screen, Romney would be up by 3, not counting the Dem skew

Animal60 on November 1, 2012 at 10:26 PM

Middle Cheese: Internals Show Romney Leading Wisconsin By One Point

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332226/middle-cheese-internals-show-romney-leading-wisconsin-one-point

Conservative4ev on November 1, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Obama is terrible.

The fact that this election is even close is a tragedy.

The media shall burn in hell for this.

fossten on November 1, 2012 at 10:50 PM

So what are the polls saying?
I am reading articles stating Obama has the edge. An edge in these states equals winning the election so why the hell do we bother?
We are voting for Romney here in Florida but is sounds as if we are pissing into the wind?
If these union states rule the day, our country is screwed!
Am I to glean from these polls Romney is a lost cause?
Help me here.

Delsa on November 2, 2012 at 8:31 AM

So what are the polls saying?
I am reading articles stating Obama has the edge. An edge in these states equals winning the election so why the hell do we bother?
We are voting for Romney here in Florida but is sounds as if we are pissing into the wind?
If these union states rule the day, our country is screwed!
Am I to glean from these polls Romney is a lost cause?
Help me here.

Delsa on November 2, 2012 at 8:31 AM

Your not, the LSM are trying to sway public opinion. Get out and vote

The only way Romney loses is if the turnout is supressed

Animal60 on November 2, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Not sure how else to see this but Romney is not all that confident of winning Ohio.He is hedging his bets by going to campaign in PA but i am not sure how this is going to help him – yes, it forces Obama to spend money that he would otherwise be spending in OH or WI but if this election is going to boil down to last minute changes in voting preferences, i think its a lost cause for Romney.

By now enough people – reasonable people anyways, should be able to see that Obama has been nothing less than a terrible failure and a blot on the American presidency. It is amazing that he is still winning Ohio and Iowa inspite of everything that has happened in the last four years.

America lurched to the extreme left in 2008 and from what I see, is poised to repeat a terrible mistake.

Getting Fooled by Obama once is bad enough – but to be fooled twice is going to be eternal shame on all of America.

nagee76 on November 2, 2012 at 1:40 PM

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