Romney within 3 in Michigan?

posted at 9:21 am on October 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

No wonder Team Obama started spending money in Detroit.  Democrats usually have no trouble holding Michigan in presidential races, and with Barack Obama bragging about the auto-industry bailout, most people figured that task would be easier than ever.  However, a new poll from the Detroit News shows Obama below 50% — and Mitt Romney within the margin of error:

Mitt Romney is within striking distance of Barack Obama in Michigan in the final days before the election, buoyed by more who are convinced the Republican is a viable alternative to the president, with the ability to turn around the economy.

Obama’s lead over Romney has shrunk to just under 3 points, 47.7 percent to 45 percent, with 3.8 percent undecided, according to a new Detroit News/WDIV Local 4 poll of likely voters. Obama’s lead was 6.7 points earlier this month and has eroded to within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. It’s the smallest advantage for the Democratic president during the Michigan campaign.

“Mitt Romney’s numbers … are where they would need to be if he hopes to pull off an upset next week,” said Richard Czuba of Glengariff Group Inc., which conducted the poll. “But the question is: Is there enough for a final push?”

The Detroit News didn’t release the poll internals, but the News has some helpful graphics at the top of the page on a couple of key issues.  Obama has an eight-point lead on foreign affairs, and a six-point lead on “understanding your values,” but doesn’t get to 50% on either. Romney has a narrow lead on the economy, 47.3% to 43.8%, though, which is the biggest issue in the campaign.  Romney’s lead in this case looks less important than the fact that the incumbent can’t get to 44%.

Perhaps more importantly, Romney’s winning independents, according to the News, albeit “narrowly.”  Obama won them by eight in 2008.  Romney also leads among men by six points, while Obama won them by seven four years ago.  Obama won the state by sixteen points in 2008, so a 13-point flip in the gap among independents and a flip among men of nine or more points would put this state in play.

Expect to see more polling come out of Michigan, especially with national polling more or less derailed after Hurricane Sandy.  We’ll see if this is an outlier — but the sudden decision to spend precious last-minute resources in Detroit by the Obama campaign tells me they’re seeing the same thing.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

…hope so!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

It’s almost as if people in Michigan don’t enjoy joblessness and poverty on a scale that rivals Greece.

Huh.

But whatever. Rombo is in Florida today and that means TFDAP has already won the election; game over.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

…we do have a lot of stupid people here…we still have Levin and Stabintheback.

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Landslide

stackedeck on October 31, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Guess Michigan isn’t immune to this economy either

Conservative4ev on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

….Bishop was first!…my clock was off!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Obama is in trouble in Michigan.

More bad news for Obama…

Romney up 5 in Virginia:

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_October_31_2012.htm

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Romney should be running ads of obozo with Blowin’ Jenny Granholm in the state. Tie that witch to obozo.

Flange on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I expect something about a “hurricane bounce” to appear here any minute.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

What is TFDAP?

22044 on October 31, 2012 at 9:29 AM

….Bishop was first!…my clock was off!

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Good save on your part, I’ll call off the hit.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Gumby sees this as bad for Romney. What it fails to realize because it knows absolutely nothing while trying to think it’s the smartest thing on the internet is that if the race truly is this close in Michigan, it’s over for Obama in Ohio. Ohio is always more Republican than Michigan, always.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

The First Diplomat Abandoning President.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

So between this and the NYT/CBS poll, all I can conclude is that the Pundits have in all wrong. Ohio is not the swing state that this election hinges on….Michigan is!

Who’ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

THose outside of Detroit autoworkers
including affluent suburbs
are sick of Obama

let’s hope the Ann Arbor liberals
and GM flunkies don’t carry them over the breech

audiotom on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’d love nothing more than to see Mitt take MI and PA, not just for the extra EVs, but because I want this thing called early next Tuesday so Obama is pressured to concede that same night and not put it off til the next day like John Kerry did.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I just think people everywhere are realizing that they have no trust in Obama. We may not be seeing the kind of reporting we NEED to be seeing regarding Benghazi, but it’s pretty well known that Obama and Hillary went before the public and LIED shamelessly about the stupid video. You combine lying with a campaign of nothing but negative slams on the opponent, and it makes people nervous to reelect him.

BettyRuth on October 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Who’ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I dunno’. I’m waiting to see what goofy excuse gumbo has before I decide if this is bad, or devastating, to 0bama.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Expect to see more polling come out of Michigan, especially with national polling more or less derailed after Hurricane Sandy. We’ll see if this is an outlier — but the sudden decision to spend precious last-minute resources in Detroit by the Obama campaign tells me they’re seeing the same thing.

But I thought that the whole “General Motors is alive and Osama is Dead” sealed the deal for the rat-eared wonder. I’d love to see MI in play but I don’t think it is realistic to think it really is. But, hey, anything that bleeds money from Oiho is a good thing.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Atomic!

Del Dolemonte on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I think people need to temper their expectations a bit. It’s hard to imagine Romney winning PA or MI if he’s not winning OH.

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Not so sure about Michigan. There are several proposals on the ballot that will motivate the libs to vote.

dmarie on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I’d love nothing more than to see Mitt take MI and PA, not just for the extra EVs, but because I want this thing called early next Tuesday so Obama is pressured to concede that same night and not put it off til the next day like John Kerry did.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

You expect a concession speech from Obama election night? He could lose 45 states and the spin will be well that’s 45 states the lawyers need to look in to.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The First Diplomat Abandoning President.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I’d almost laugh if this entire debacle didn’t make me so [deleted] angry.

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

The First Diplomat Abandoning President.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Benghazi really isn’t an issue that resonates in MI. Obama is banking on their thriving economy and low unemployment rates to carry MI. Oh wait….

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

“Gumby sees this as bad for Romney. What it fails to realize because it knows absolutely nothing while trying to think it’s the smartest thing on the internet is that if the race truly is this close in Michigan, it’s over for Obama in Ohio. Ohio is always more Republican than Michigan, always.

MobileVideoEngineer on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM”

No, nothing bad about it, but Romney still won’t win Michigan.

The MU law poll in WI coming out today is the most important poll of the election cycle so far. OH looks to be lost, so getting WI is then a MUST for Romney. And MU nailed the recall and is the best poll around for getting the real scoop on WI. If Romney is trailing here, then forget it.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Our WeatherLady President is getting worried..

A million jobs saved is like…
A million voters that can see the BS this president is throwing..

Electrongod on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

We went red in 2010 and I don’t see a flip back to blue this time. However I was depressed to see 2 term incumbent Stabenow mediscare lies are working. She has a double digit lead. I guess my fellow voters here have not wised up to realize how horrible her votes have been for the country. If MI manages to send our electoral votes toward Romney, it will help to mitigate the Stabenow re-election.

karenhasfreedom on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I’d love nothing more than to see Mitt take MI and PA, not just for the extra EVs, but because I want this thing called early next Tuesday so Obama is pressured to concede that same night and not put it off til the next day like John Kerry did.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I don’t see little Bammie giving a concession speech until maybe days after the election, and then it may be to blame it all on racism.

Moochie on the other hand, oy… Haagen-Dazs will have to make a special delivery.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

You expect a concession speech from Obama election night? He could lose 45 states and the spin will be well that’s 45 states the lawyers need to look in to.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

My prediction- First concession speech that never actually includes a concession but rather blames the rat-eared wonder’s loss on GWB or Congress or something.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

I’m glad Obama is having to campaign in MI, but why, then is Romney campaigning in FL? Are Suffolk and Mason Dixon more optimistic than Romney’s internals?

parteagirl on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

NEWS FLASH LATEST CBS/IPSOS poll and Nate Silver say Obama is up 213% to Romney’s -54% in all states.

Insiders say in a historical election precedent it is likely NO ONE in America will vote for Romney.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:40 AM

If MI manages to send our electoral votes toward Romney, it will help to mitigate the Stabenow re-election.

karenhasfreedom on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

If only. Apparently MI voters are happy the woman has spent her entire time in the Senate dealing with Canadian trash and Asian carp.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Who’ya gonna believe? Me or your lying eyes.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I dunno’. I’m waiting to see what goofy excuse gumbo has before I decide if this is bad, or devastating, to 0bama.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

With the crap that gumby posted, I’m goin’ with devastating.

cozmo on October 31, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Insiders say in a historical election precedent it is likely NO ONE in America will vote for Romney.

Skwor on October 31, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Well, that is some hurricane bump.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I’d almost laugh if this entire debacle didn’t make me so [deleted] angry.

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

To be honest I don’t mean the acronyms as humor, so don’t feel bad. The coward let those men die and in a sane world he would already have been dragged from his office and thrown into a prison cell to await trial. Our reps are doing us a disservice by not making it so.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

My brother was downtown for his cancer (free 4 years now) check up. All he heard in the waiting areas was how Romney was going to “turn off my Obama phones if he be ‘lected.”

Keep Obama IN president!
Obama-phone!!
Obama Stash to pay my’s bills.

These people exists and are all over Detroit. I can not get my hopes up yet for Michigan.

NOTE: Grammer in the Detroit area is optional it seems.

mechkiller_k on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

You expect a concession speech from Obama election night? He could lose 45 states and the spin will be well that’s 45 states the lawyers need to look in to.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

I have a different take. He’s got a tee time for Wednesday that he won’t want to miss.

He’ll concede and do it early.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

TFDAP has already won the election; game over.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I will regret asking this, (I do already,) but what does TFDAP mean?

The
First
?
?
President.

Thanks.

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

I’m glad Obama is having to campaign in MI, but why, then is Romney campaigning in FL? Are Suffolk and Mason Dixon more optimistic than Romney’s internals?

parteagirl on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Romney is doing what is necessary- playing like he’s down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. In short, you don’t ignore a key swing state based on polling.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

OT: will the unemployment number look good for dear leader since they are now eager to report it on Friday

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I will regret asking this, (I do already,) but what does TFDAP mean?

The
First
?
?
President.

Thanks.

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Answered upthread, while I was typing…

Thanks again.

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

You expect a concession speech from Obama election night? He could lose 45 states and the spin will be well that’s 45 states the lawyers need to look in to.

Marcus on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

If it’s called by 10PM EST, he has to concede that night. It would preposterous to stall until the next day(or later). Does he really wanna go out as a sore loser?

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

I have a different take. He’s got a tee time for Wednesday that he won’t want to miss.

He’ll concede and do it early.

WisRich on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

May you be right!

massrighty on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Must be running low on Obamaphones and all that Obamastash there in Detroilet.

I hear Biden just filled the UHaul full of Nokia’s and is headed there stat.

patman77 on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Ditto doughboy @9:32

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I’m glad Obama is having to campaign in MI, but why, then is Romney campaigning in FL? Are Suffolk and Mason Dixon more optimistic than Romney’s internals?

parteagirl on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

This is just a guess but there is a key Senate race down there and maybe Romney’s trying to shore up support for Connie Mack. The more people are energized to vote, the better.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Does he really wanna go out as a sore loser?

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Why not? That’s how he came in.

ElectricPhase on October 31, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Romney is doing what is necessary- playing like he’s down two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. In short, you don’t ignore a key swing state based on polling.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

As long as it is Obama that is the Lions and not Romney. If that is the case then the election is in the bag.

mechkiller_k on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I thought every poll you hump is the “most important one”.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I don’t see little Bammie giving a concession speech until 9:30 pm on Friday, when nobody is paying attention. maybe days after the election, and then it may be to blame it all on racism.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

There, FIFY! : )

herm2416 on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Spot on Happy nomad @9:39

cmsinaz on October 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

You’re all wasting your time. There is no way the media will allow Barry to lose.

Zaggs on October 31, 2012 at 9:50 AM

As a Michigander I am quite certain Romney takes the state. Michigan for the most part is a conservative state. We have three large counties including Wayne County which houses Detroit and UAW stronghold, coupled with the usual Catholic democrat vote in Wayne County. The Catholics in Michigan are turned, the churches are engaged.

There are no signs anywhere, for either candidate, they are sparse. I drive into Detroit 2 times per week for work and there are very few.

I would like to clear up one misconception the media has regarding Independents. I am an Independent. I am an Independent that votes Republican, which most of us are. I am an Independent solely because I no longer associate myself with the republican national party. I have stopped giving them money, receiving their mailings, or being involved in the party at all. I am a republican, a conservative republican that has been fed up with the GOP for years.

shar61 on October 31, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Obama has … a six-point lead on “understanding your values,”…

What the what? That America-dissing, abortion-loving, foul-mouthed, millionaire socialist doesn’t have a clue about my values!

KS Rex on October 31, 2012 at 9:52 AM

I am not going to cover every state Mitt might win but I shall cover Michigan.

Imagine!

Michigan could be carried by Mitt since

1) The state was not peppered with the hate Mitt advertising campaign for months.

2) Mitt’s family is well known in Michigan.

3) The population generally is more sharp about the bailout, the UAW and general auto issues than Ohio.

4) MI and the other states in play are not Massachusetts and actually have a pretty strong pro-USA and patriotic streak and a love of successful people who built major companies there.

5) Even NY and Massachusetts are in play if 1/3 to 1/2 of the Dems stay home.

IlikedAUH2O on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

….why don’t you be productive and sit on the toilet the rest of the day?

KOOLAID2 on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_October_31_2012.htm

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

It’ll be interesting to see if the mighty Nate Silver will mention this today, considering his main shtick these days is to find no-name and lesser known polling organizations and comment on their results and incorporate them into his “model”.

strictnein on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

See my post directly above, mate.

IlikedAUH2O on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

The man-child and his wife-of-entitlement are going to throw a fit when they lose…

The people may have to drag them out of DC and back to Chicago…

PatriotRider on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Old MSNBC: Romney is in trouble and has few paths to victory.

New MSNBC: Romney is in trouble and is opening multiple paths to victory because of the trouble he is in.

Nate Silver: Our forecast shows Obama sweeping all of Europe’s 435 electoral votes.

PPP: America is becoming overwhelmingly Democrat, per our sample, and has Obama ahead by 8.

Chris Christie: I want to be POTUS! :-(

Punchenko on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I think with the democrat corruption problem in a couple of the MI big cities, turnout might be discouraged for the traditional dems, like men who still have jobs and the elderly. That is, if they are not convinced Romney is an alternative. I think some of the elderly WILL go for the Romney integrity.

I am not convinced that Obama’s base will come out in MI, the unemployment rate is still high there and Obama did not deliver to the African American community anything tangible, and now the Pro Gay Marriage thing ignores their feelings.

Based on the fact that MI voted for a Republican Gov. in 2010, and that there is a good republican ground game by Romney friends, I think the 3 points is pollster created.

I say Michigan is TOO CLOSE TO Call/ LEANS Romney.

Fleuries on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I think people need to temper their expectations a bit. It’s hard to imagine Romney winning PA or MI if he’s not winning OH.

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 9:36 AM

.
You are going to hear a lot about the “Bradley effect” this Nov. 7th as cover for these piss poor polls that didn’t show Hopey going down in flames. Especially from MSNBS and the race baiters.

In California’s Dem primary March in 2008, Obama lost to Shillary by a whopping 10 percentage points- this after voter polling had the Obamunist UP by 13 points and other polls gave him a smaller lead. That’s a 15-20% swing during Obamamania, and that gets a big Bradley effect booyah !! from me.

This time around voters already have voted in the first Black president- novelty gone – and if you live in a blue state and you’ve changed your mind about Prezzie Eye Candy…… you won’t be very public about it- rather it will happen in the polling booth.
Bank on it buddy !!

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

“http://roanoke.edu/News_and_Events/Campus_News/RC_Poll_October_31_2012.htm

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

It’ll be interesting to see if the mighty Nate Silver will mention this today, considering his main shtick these days is to find no-name and lesser known polling organizations and comment on their results and incorporate them into his “model”.

strictnein on October 31, 2012 at 9:53 AM”

It will be averaged in with the other polls, as it should be.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:55 AM

I found gumby.

wargamer6 on October 31, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Obama has a wide lead in those extra 7 seven states…that may push him over the top…

PatriotRider on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I absolutely unloaded on Obama in a previous thread. I’m not one to rant here, and I’ve really tried to avoid commenting on Benghazi. I wouldn’t be adding anything constructive, and with a few exceptions (uppereastside, crr6, et al.) everyone here agrees.

All I know is that an enemy mortar team was being painted and a former SEAL was banging away on a .50 while our President – at absolute best – dithered. It looks like he didn’t just dither, he actively denied them the aid they were begging for.

If there is a square mile on this planet that we can’t get a fire mission to within seven hours, I want to know about it.

Otherwise… otherwise, I don’t even know how I’m going to be able to process this in a way that makes sense. We all KNOW we won’t get left behind if it all goes to hell. That knowledge is vital to every mission because it is vital to our peace of mind.

Knowing you can be abandoned – not by your NCO or your commander, but by the Commander in Chief himself – will be devastating on all sorts of levels.

We will be seeing operational repercussions from Benghazi for a generation. Commanders will now have to factor in ‘abandonment’ as a contingency.

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

“You are going to hear a lot about the “Bradley effect” this Nov. 7th as cover for these piss poor polls that didn’t show Hopey going down in flames. Especially from MSNBS and the race baiters.”

And this ridiculousness is why I’m here!

What Bradley Effect? There was zero Bradley Effect in 08 (even though conservative blogs said it would happen) and to magically expect it to pop up now is folly.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

The First Diplomat Abandoning President.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I was going with The F****** Dumb Ass President.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Michigander- Is that some kind of goose? ;0

Seriously, I’d like to share your optimism but Wayne County and the commie outpost at Ann Arbor along with all those MEA and UAW dollars are a pretty high hurdle for anybody to overcome. I’d be more positive if Stabenow were not so far ahead of Pete Hoekstra in the Senate race. If Romney is gaining, there should be some tightening of that race.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I’m still waiting for the day for some California Dreamin’…because eventually–after the crash and burn–it’s gotta swing left, doesn’t it?

But on the other hand, it is a good loon magnet for the rest of the states, I guess.

Bob's Kid on October 31, 2012 at 9:59 AM

What Bradley Effect? There was zero Bradley Effect in 08 (even though conservative blogs said it would happen) and to magically expect it to pop up now is folly.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

You’re right. The rat-eared wonder will be decisively voted out of office for incompetence, corruption, and stupidity not because of his mixed-race genetics.

Happy Nomad on October 31, 2012 at 10:00 AM

The First Diplomat Abandoning President.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

This is a candidate for Threadwinner of the Year. lol :0

HomeoftheBrave on October 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

“You are going to hear a lot about the “Bradley effect” this Nov. 7th as cover for these piss poor polls that didn’t show Hopey going down in flames. Especially from MSNBS and the race baiters.”

And this ridiculousness is why I’m here!

What Bradley Effect? There was zero Bradley Effect in 08 (even though conservative blogs said it would happen) and to magically expect it to pop up now is folly.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Reading comprehension, idiot. That was the whole point of that comment. There’s NO Bradley Effect. Obama will lose because he’s a lousy President and a coverup artist, not because he’s (half)black. But many in the press will never concede that, so they’ll need to concoct some BS excuse like racism. You’re already seeing it preemptively on MSDNC and with Andrew Sullivan on This Week last Sunday.

Doughboy on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

.
2012 is not the same as your lefty’s 2008.

If it was as you suggest, enthusiasm for your guy would be a lot different – much higher. Obamamania is dead.
Your making the mistake by denying the different set of dynamics that exist now, in 2012, then it did in 2008.

What part of “Bank on it Buddy” don’t you not get?

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

The MU law poll in WI coming out today is the most important poll of the election cycle so far. OH looks to be lost, so getting WI is then a MUST for Romney. And MU nailed the recall and is the best poll around for getting the real scoop on WI. If Romney is trailing here, then forget it.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I challenge you on Ohio. Show me how Romney doesn’t have it? I’ve posted repeatedly OBAMA CAN’T GET OHIO based on the voting demographic change since 2008 AND the results of the early voting. I called Ohio R+3 earlier, but now I’m inclined to believe the other posters it could be R+5 or R+6.

Where the f*** are you getting those rosey Obama numbers from?

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 AM

It will be a hurdle for sure, but Obama’s base will not show up on Tuesday, they can answer polls all they want, but they are not showing up in real numbers. They are too embarrassed.

Remember when we almost got Dingell out? Until they counted the Ann Arbor votes? yeah that was sucky..I loathe Stabenow. But, she needs his base to win the election. Hoekstra could win by default. The Romney supporters in Michigan will be out to vote in huge numbers.

shar61 on October 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

“gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

.
2012 is not the same as your lefty’s 2008.

If it was as you suggest, enthusiasm for your guy would be a lot different – much higher. Obamamania is dead.
Your making the mistake by denying the different set of dynamics that exist now, in 2012, then it did in 2008.

What part of “Bank on it Buddy” don’t you not get?

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM”

This campaign was more about trench warfare/GOTV/early voting than in 08 when Obamamania was at it’s peak. But that cascade of popularity is coming back with his hurricane-monitoring (lol) performance. Even Haley Barbour was drooling all over himself last night saying how great Obama is doing.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Turtle…my cousin lives in Ohio, her husbands entire family are liberal dem’s, 50 of them. They are voting Romney. There has to be thousands more like that in Ohio.

shar61 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Turtle…my cousin lives in Ohio, her husbands entire family are liberal dem’s, 50 of them. They are voting Romney. There has to be thousands more like that in Ohio.

shar61 on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

That’s another valid point. So we have the registation changes since 2008, the underperformance aspect from early voting, and this. So tell me, how the f*** is Obama going to win Ohio?

Are the liberals really that bad at math?

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:11 AM

We will be seeing operational repercussions from Benghazi for a generation. Commanders will now have to factor in ‘abandonment’ as a contingency.

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

So very sad but true. I would hate to be writing Frag or Op orders now. Can you just imagine breifing your team prior to a mission and some Private asks, Sarge what if we’re abandoned?
Devestating for morale!

D-fusit on October 31, 2012 at 10:12 AM

I was going with The F****** Dumb Ass President.

Red Cloud on October 31, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Just as good.

Bishop on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

“The MU law poll in WI coming out today is the most important poll of the election cycle so far. OH looks to be lost, so getting WI is then a MUST for Romney. And MU nailed the recall and is the best poll around for getting the real scoop on WI. If Romney is trailing here, then forget it.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I challenge you on Ohio. Show me how Romney doesn’t have it? I’ve posted repeatedly OBAMA CAN’T GET OHIO based on the voting demographic change since 2008 AND the results of the early voting. I called Ohio R+3 earlier, but now I’m inclined to believe the other posters it could be R+5 or R+6.

Where the f*** are you getting those rosey Obama numbers from?

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:05 AM”

Obama has been basically campaigning in OH for the last four years. He has perfected the GOTV operation and has built up a gigantic lead among early voters, even if that lead is not as strong as in 08. It will lead him to a 1-2 pt victory next Tuesday. Obama has been consistently stronger in OH than in the nation overall. BTW, if Romney was going to have a shot, this was the week his poll numbers would have surged, as Bush’s did in 04 when he had trailed Kerry. As we can brutally see, Romney’s numbers are stagnant and horrible.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

This campaign was more about trench warfare/GOTV/early voting than in 08 when Obamamania was at it’s peak. But that cascade of popularity is coming back with his hurricane-monitoring (lol) performance. Even Haley Barbour was drooling all over himself last night saying how great Obama is doing.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

He can sure manage a weather crisis, but lacking the leadership to handle an oveseas crises, ref: Benghazi…he failed, people died..

Static21 on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Who are you voting for?

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:08 AM

.
The Hurricane ?
Really ?

Turn off MSNBS already-
Their ratings suck- their viewership is the hardcore extreme- and they are as propagandist as any media outlet has ever been. Evah.

Im sure Blue states NY and NJ enjoy Hopey’s latest foray into phoniness and connecting with feelings….
but that’s just preachin to that socialist choir up there.

He’s run out of time to do his Community Organizing vote-buying , song and dance……

Trust your media, belong to your government,
but it’s Fork Time.

FlaMurph on October 31, 2012 at 10:15 AM

BTW, if Romney was going to have a shot, this was the week his poll numbers would have surged, as Bush’s did in 04 when he had trailed Kerry. As we can brutally see, Romney’s numbers are stagnant and horrible.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

And the polls are complete sh*t with D+6 and D+7 samples. Romney’s ground game has been matching Obama’s, we’ve seen that already.

I’m still trying to see how Obama can win by +1 or +2, and I’m not able to get there with all the data I have at my disposal.

SHOW ME HOW OBAMA IS WINNING OHIO. You can’t. You only have sh*t polls and dem talking points. Enough said.

Turtle317 on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

See my post directly above, mate.

IlikedAUH2O on October 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Good points, all. I hope you’re right!

changer1701 on October 31, 2012 at 10:17 AM

As we can brutally see, Romney’s numbers are stagnant and horrible.

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Okay now stop, you are really beclowning yourself.

D-fusit on October 31, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I’ll make this one last comment to the fictional clay DH. You’re a monster in thought and a liar about being a Conservative who “used to support Santorum”. It’s just a lie.

I will give you this, you’re good. You have dominated this entire site for weeks because your bullshit can’t seem to be ignored by those who comment here. My hats off to you for that. But having said that I’ll just add it certainly doesn’t add anything to you as a person.

The one thing that should have been front and center for this election for consideration as to the the fitness of the current president, Benghazi, is being ignored. Your callous disregard for this as a national event (and the liberal media as well) speaks volumes to what you really care about. During Bush it was all about how his “mistakes” cost American lives. Now to you, an event like Genghazi is acceptable to not be cared about because the blood is on obama’s hands and ignoring it improves his chances for reelection. This is why most military folks hate liberals.

Folks, I would just ask one last time, for the sake of what Hot Air is and what we’d like it to be, ignore the clay Moby commenter from here until the elections are over.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Remember, there are less than 750,000 people left in Detroit. There used to be 2,5 million but the chronic job losses have eroded the population. Meanwhile, the outlying areas have not lost their numbers, thus the SE part of the state no longer overwhelms the vote outcome. Stabenow has had millions of $$ to spend on ads LYING about her votes and positions and LYING about Hoekstra. He only seems to run 1 ad for every 10 or 15 ads run by Stabenow. I am so sick of seeing her lies on my tv.

karenhasfreedom on October 31, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Folks, I would just ask one last time, for the sake of what Hot Air is and what we’d like it to be, ignore the clay Moby commenter from here until the elections are over.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

I’m on board.

Washington Nearsider on October 31, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Thought it was FIRST DUMB A** PRESIDENT D A is just one word, I guess

I am not a racist on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Folks, I would just ask one last time, for the sake of what Hot Air is and what we’d like it to be, ignore the clay Moby commenter from here until the elections are over.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Thanks hawk, I’m in as well.

D-fusit on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Folks, I would just ask one last time, for the sake of what Hot Air is and what we’d like it to be, ignore the clay Moby commenter from here until the elections are over.
hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

First, that will never happen. Second, I think there is value in loudly mocking and confronting people like you know who. There’s no point in simply letting the pro-Obama spin go unchallenged. People like that should not be taken seriously. But that doesn’t mean they should be ignored, either. Especially not on a forum that is viewed by thousands every day.

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

gumbyandpokey on October 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Well at least you finally admitted what Obumbler has been doing for the last 4 years….. In between gulf outings of course.

Kagan on October 31, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Thought it was FIRST DUMB A** PRESIDENT D A is just one word, I guess

I am not a racist on October 31, 2012 at 10:27 AM

I assumed ‘dickless ahole’, but okay.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 10:51 AM

bluegill on October 31, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Do as you want. But just review the threads. He owns them.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

GOP win in MI or not, if the numbers are high enough, 2014 might scare the bejeebus outta the MI left…. and that’s a GOOD thang. ;-)

pambi on October 31, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Folks, I would just ask one last time, for the sake of what Hot Air is and what we’d like it to be, ignore the clay Moby commenter from here until the elections are over.

hawkdriver on October 31, 2012 at 10:21 AM

Thanks hawk, I’m in as well.

D-fusit on October 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

If you really for some reason can’t restrain yourself from responding to a troll, let’s at least don’t c&p their garbage and spread it through the thread.

slickwillie2001 on October 31, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Comment pages: 1 2